MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 24th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET
| Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh | ||||||||||
 | Brett Anderson |  | Chad Kuhl | ||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| CHC-106 | 8.0 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.583 | 46.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 46.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.373 | 37.9% | 8.3% | 16.1% | 37.2% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.363 | 34.3% | 8.3% | 15.6% | 50.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.271 | 30.2% | 6.3% | 19.5% | 45.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Brett Anderson | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $14,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 6 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 17 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3 | 5.10 | 11.91 | 8.1% | 6.5% | 50.0% | 35.9% | 24.5% | |
| 2017 | 3 | 4.03 | 4.40 | 17.2% | 7.8% | 47.9% | 39.6% | 25.0% | |
Welcome back to another Monday edition of the Grind Down. We have a tidy nine game slate on the schedule that is full of tough decisions. Anderson hasn’t looked great in his first three starts this season, but he’s a ground ball pitcher that doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact. He also has one of the best offenses in baseball at his back, which always improves his chances of getting the win. Tonight he faces a Pirates’ offense that will load up on right-handed hitters. Even though the pitching options are limited, there are better spots in this slate.
Quick Breakdown: Deep GPP flier at best.
| Chad Kuhl | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $14,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 11 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 17 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 14 | 4.50 | 4.20 | 17.6% | 6.6% | 44.3% | 33.0% | 19.6% | |
| 2017 | 3 | 4.62 | 2.60 | 19.4% | 9.7% | 31.3% | 36.7% | 14.3% | |
Kuhl has a low ERA, but could see some regression hit soon. He has a below-average strikeout rate, a high hard contact rate, and an unsustainable .265 BABIP. The goal of DFS is to target pitchers that are trending in the right direction, not ones that could regress in the near future. A matchup against the Cubs makes the decision that much easier.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Chad Kuhl has not fared well against left-handed hitters in the last two seasons, allowing a .373 wOBA with a 38% hard contact rate and an 8% walk rate. Even though this isn’t a great ballpark for offensive production, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, and Ben Zobrist are all elite plays at their respective positions. If you want to complete the Cubs’ stack with the right-handed bats of Kris Bryant and Addison Russell, I certainly wouldn’t fault you. Jason Heyward is an intriguing value play on DraftKings at $3,400. He’s shown a little more pop in his bat this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber | LEFT | 0.307 | 0.158 | 42.9% | 11.9% | 32.8% | 44.1% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,500 | IF/OF | $8,700 |
| 2 | Kris Bryant | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.221 | 38.6% | 9.8% | 22.9% | 30.3% | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $5,000 | IF/OF | $9,600 |
| 3 | Anthony Rizzo | LEFT | 0.399 | 0.263 | 37.6% | 11.7% | 17.1% | 35.4% | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $5,300 | 1B | $10,200 |
| 4 | Ben Zobrist | SWITCH | 0.355 | 0.180 | 32.9% | 16.0% | 11.7% | 46.9% | 2B | $2,800 | 2B/OF | $4,300 | IF/OF | $8,400 |
| 5 | Addison Russell | RIGHT | 0.306 | 0.156 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 21.7% | 41.9% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,700 | SS | $7,200 |
| 6 | Jason Heyward | LEFT | 0.298 | 0.106 | 27.6% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 45.8% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,400 | RF | $6,800 |
| 7 | Willson Contreras | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.200 | 32.4% | 10.2% | 27.8% | 52.4% | C | $3,100 | C | $3,700 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
| 8 | Brett Anderson | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 100.0% | P | $7,500 | P | $7,300 | P | $14,400 |
| 9 | Javier Baez | RIGHT | 0.297 | 0.150 | 28.8% | 1.4% | 27.4% | 44.5% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,500 |
Elite Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist
Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Jason Heyward (DK)
Stackability – YELLOW
Pittsburgh
The Pirates lost one of their best right-handed hitters in Starling Marte, but are still an offense that is built to succeed against lefties. Seven of their eight position players will be able to hit from the right side of the plate and six of them have at least a .325 wOBA against southpaws. Brett Anderson is a reverse-splits pitcher, but his numbers against righties haven’t been great over his last six starts – .363 wOBA and a 34% hard contact rate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.175 | 26.5% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 39.6% | SS | $2,300 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,300 |
| 2 | Josh Harrison | RIGHT | 0.359 | 0.156 | 37.0% | 1.7% | 15.4% | 36.7% | 2B | $2,800 | 2B/3B | $3,700 | 2B | $7,200 |
| 3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.200 | 33.0% | 13.3% | 18.0% | 38.8% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,500 | RF | $8,700 |
| 4 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.202 | 30.0% | 9.1% | 30.3% | 45.0% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,400 | LF | $8,400 |
| 5 | David Freese | RIGHT | 0.411 | 0.206 | 44.0% | 14.3% | 26.2% | 58.7% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $6,400 |
| 6 | Francisco Cervelli | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.015 | 43.6% | 13.8% | 16.3% | 59.3% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,400 |
| 7 | Jose Osuna | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.333 | 20.0% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 20.0% | 1B | $2,100 | 1B/OF | $3,000 | IF/OF | $6,000 |
| 8 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.213 | 0.083 | 25.8% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 51.6% | 1B | $2,400 | 1B | $3,300 | IF/OF | $6,600 |
| 9 | Chad Kuhl | RIGHT | 0.176 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 50.0% | P | $6,900 | P | $7,000 | P | $14,000 |
Elite Plays – David Freese
Secondary Plays – Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen, Jose Osuna
Stackability – YELLOW
Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
| Tampa Bay | Baltimore | ||||||||||
 | Chris Archer |  | Ubaldo Jimenez | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| TB -104 | 7.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.297 | 33.3% | 8.0% | 27.4% | 46.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.371 | 31.3% | 12.0% | 21.9% | 43.8% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.306 | 32.8% | 7.7% | 27.0% | 48.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.313 | 31.5% | 10.5% | 16.6% | 51.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Chris Archer | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,500 | Salary: | $10,100 | Salary: | $19,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 2 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 17 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 33 | 3.50 | 4.02 | 27.4% | 7.9% | 47.8% | 32.8% | 18.0% | |
| 2017 | 4 | 3.34 | 3.20 | 25.5% | 7.6% | 42.9% | 35.2% | 14.1% | |
Archer is the most talented pitcher on the slate tonight, but he also draws one of the most difficult matchups. The Orioles are very tough in general, especially at home in the hitter-friendly confines of Camden Yards. The current Orioles’ roster has a combined .340 wOBA and seven home runs against Archer in 198 plate appearances, but also have a strikeout rate of 24%. In most slates, Archer would be an easy fade in cash games, but he’s one of the top two options on the board tonight. Even though he may give up a couple of runs here, you have to like his strikeout upside against a lineup that has four projected starters with at least a 25% strikeout rate against righties.
Quick Breakdown: Some risk here, but Archer is viable in all formats.
| Ubaldo Jimenez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | $13,500 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 11 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 17 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 | 4.75 | 5.44 | 19.6% | 11.3% | 49.0% | 30.9% | 19.2% | |
| 2017 | 3 | 5.20 | 5.51 | 12.5% | 9.7% | 42.6% | 35.7% | 21.4% | |
In a slate like this, Jimenez is going to be 5-10% owned in tournaments. People are going to make the argument that the Rays strikeout at a high rate and that Jimenez makes a nice leverage play off of Chris Archer. However, I’m just not seeing enough upside for Jimenez to make him viable in any league format. His strikeout rate this season is sitting at 12.5% and the Rays are a fairly patient team at the plate, which brings his command issues into play.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
The Rays see a positive ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards and they draw a favorable matchup against Ubaldo Jimenez, who has a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. In the last two seasons, Jimenez has allowed a .371 wOBA and a 31% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters, which brings Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, and Logan Morrison into play. I also like Evan Longoria as a sneaky tournament play. He is locked in this season with a 39% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corey Dickerson | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.257 | 30.7% | 6.5% | 22.8% | 34.2% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,100 | LF | $8,100 |
| 2 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.154 | 31.2% | 9.5% | 17.8% | 44.4% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,300 | CF | $8,400 |
| 3 | Evan Longoria | RIGHT | 0.355 | 0.255 | 37.2% | 6.2% | 21.8% | 32.8% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $5,100 | 3B | $10,000 |
| 4 | Brad Miller | LEFT | 0.339 | 0.247 | 36.4% | 8.5% | 25.1% | 45.1% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $4,500 | SS | $8,700 |
| 5 | Steve Souza | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.184 | 31.7% | 7.9% | 31.4% | 40.3% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,400 | RF | $8,700 |
| 6 | Logan Morrison | LEFT | 0.321 | 0.196 | 36.3% | 9.1% | 21.3% | 42.5% | 1B | $2,400 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,600 |
| 7 | Derek Norris | RIGHT | 0.231 | 0.131 | 32.1% | 6.3% | 33.1% | 35.3% | C | $3,000 | C | $3,500 | C | $6,800 |
| 8 | Shane Peterson | LEFT | 0.368 | 0.190 | 30.8% | 0.0% | 38.1% | 38.5% | OF | $2,800 | LF | $5,600 | ||
| 9 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.286 | 0.181 | 40.2% | 3.7% | 30.7% | 43.3% | SS | $2,600 | SS | $3,700 | SS | $7,200 |
Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller
Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison
Stackability – YELLOW
Baltimore
Whether you are looking to target the Orioles’ offense or looking to target Chris Archer, you need to understand one thing: this is a boom or bust matchup for both sides. Archer is a high strikeout pitcher capable of dominating a lineup and the Orioles’ offense is capable of getting to Archer early. With so many bad pitchers on the mound tonight, I don’t plan to have a ton of exposure to the Orioles here. However, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, and Chris Davis all have a 35%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hyun-Soo Kim | LEFT | 0.358 | 0.120 | 30.4% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 52.9% | OF | $2,400 | 1B/OF | $3,500 | IF/OF | $6,800 |
| 2 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.195 | 33.5% | 5.9% | 15.9% | 44.1% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,400 | CF | $8,700 |
| 3 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.243 | 35.1% | 6.4% | 18.8% | 36.5% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $4,900 | 3B | $9,600 |
| 4 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.382 | 0.285 | 38.0% | 8.1% | 24.8% | 38.8% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,500 | IF/OF | $8,700 |
| 5 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.355 | 0.267 | 42.7% | 14.1% | 33.0% | 36.8% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $4,500 | IF/OF | $8,800 |
| 6 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.556 | 0.706 | 80.0% | 5.3% | 36.8% | 40.0% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B/OF | $3,400 | 1B | $6,600 |
| 7 | Welington Castillo | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.125 | 34.9% | 6.1% | 27.3% | 40.0% | C | $2,900 | C | $3,600 | C | $7,200 |
| 8 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.205 | 28.1% | 2.8% | 19.7% | 43.0% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 9 | J.J. Hardy | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.125 | 30.8% | 4.2% | 17.4% | 44.8% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,400 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Cincinnati at Milwaukee – 7:40 PM ET
| Cincinnati | Milwaukee | ||||||||||
 | Amir Garrett |  | Matt Garza | ||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| MIL-102 | 8.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.088 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 80.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.354 | 37.4% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 51.5% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.252 | 36.4% | 4.7% | 25.0% | 43.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.313 | 32.6% | 5.4% | 17.9% | 58.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Amir Garrett | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $13,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 5 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 17 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 3 | 2.64 | 1.83 | 28.4% | 4.1% | 46.9% | 34.7% | 20.4% | |
Garrett has looked great in his first three major league starts, posting a 2.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.4%. While those numbers are impressive, we shouldn’t go crowning him just yet. In 11 Triple-A starts last season, he had a strikeout rate of 19.7% and a walk rate of 11.3%. Not only that, but his BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB% all suggest some regression. Garrett is going to be a popular play tonight (especially on DraftKings), but I’m going to take my chances with a full fade. The Brewers’ lineup is littered with right-handed hitters that all have good numbers against southpaws.
Quick Breakdown: An interesting fade in all formats, but certainly a viable SP2 on DraftKings.
| Matt Garza | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $5,600 | Salary: | $11,100 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 14 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 17 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | 4.60 | 4.51 | 15.2% | 7.8% | 54.8% | 34.9% | 19.0% | |
Garza is making his first start of the season in hopes that this year can go a little better than the last. In 19 starts in 2016, he posted a 4.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15.2% and a hard contact rate of 34.9%. He does induce a lot of ground balls, but it’s surprising how high his hard contact rate still is. Generally, ground ball rates and hard contact rates have inverse relationships. Basically, when batters get the ball in the air against Garza, they are making great contact. Garza’s lack of strikeout upside makes him an easy fade tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
If you can hit from the left side and you are in the Reds’ lineup tonight, odds are that you will find your way onto a team of mine. Since the start of last season, Matt Garza has allowed a .354 wOBA and a 37% hard contact rate. He has also walked 10.4% of lefties, while striking them out at a clip of only 12.2%. Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, and Scott Schebler are viable targets in all formats. We can also look to the right-handed bats that don’t have a high ground ball rate themselves. This brings Adam Duvall and Eugenio Suarez into play as well.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.303 | 0.076 | 18.4% | 8.8% | 19.0% | 47.5% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,600 | CF | $8,800 |
| 2 | Jose Peraza | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.069 | 17.7% | 2.3% | 12.7% | 43.6% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $8,100 |
| 3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.419 | 0.252 | 41.6% | 17.2% | 15.1% | 37.8% | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $5,100 | 1B | $10,000 |
| 4 | Adam Duvall | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.255 | 38.0% | 6.0% | 27.5% | 33.9% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,700 | IF/OF | $9,200 |
| 5 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.160 | 34.9% | 7.8% | 23.3% | 39.1% | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 6 | Scott Schebler | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.176 | 32.3% | 7.6% | 22.1% | 52.1% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,100 | LF | $8,100 |
| 7 | Zack Cozart | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.163 | 30.1% | 7.7% | 16.2% | 39.6% | SS | $3,100 | SS | $3,900 | SS | $7,800 |
| 8 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.317 | 0.122 | 31.6% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 44.4% | C | $2,100 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
| 9 | Amir Garrett | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 100.0% | P | $7,700 | P | $6,700 | P | $13,200 |
Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Scott Schebler
Secondary Plays – Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Milwaukee
If you read the excerpt on Amir Garrett, then you know that I will be fading him in all formats tonight. You are already going against the grain by fading a highly owned pitcher, but can create serious leverage on the field by stacking the offense that he is facing. When you look at the table below, you will see why I’m so intrigued by the Brewers’ offense tonight. Seven of their eight position players have at least a .355 wOBA against southpaws since the beginning of last season. Jonathan Villar and Ryan Braun are both cash game options on FanDuel, while Jett Bandy offers good value at catcher on all sites. The rest of the Brewers are best suited as parts of a whole stack.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Villar | SWITCH | 0.357 | 0.211 | 33.9% | 10.4% | 28.3% | 41.9% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $4,800 | 2B | $9,300 |
| 2 | Eric Thames | LEFT | 0.699 | 0.667 | 50.0% | 14.3% | 28.6% | 37.5% | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,000 |
| 3 | Ryan Braun | RIGHT | 0.434 | 0.263 | 40.7% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 50.0% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $5,400 | LF | $10,500 |
| 4 | Travis Shaw | LEFT | 0.293 | 0.220 | 30.4% | 4.4% | 26.5% | 39.6% | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 5 | Domingo Santana | RIGHT | 0.382 | 0.226 | 36.9% | 13.0% | 26.9% | 41.5% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,100 | RF | $8,100 |
| 6 | Keon Broxton | RIGHT | 0.373 | 0.216 | 44.0% | 14.9% | 41.2% | 42.0% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $4,200 | CF | $8,100 |
| 7 | Jett Bandy | RIGHT | 0.357 | 0.266 | 32.1% | 9.5% | 17.6% | 26.9% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,000 | C | $6,000 |
| 8 | Orlando Arcia | RIGHT | 0.361 | 0.183 | 34.8% | 11.8% | 20.6% | 40.5% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $3,700 | SS | $7,200 |
| 9 | Matt Garza | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 80.0% | P | $6,700 | P | $5,600 | P | $11,100 |
Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar (FD), Ryan Braun (FD), Jett Bandy (DK)
Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar (DK), Ryan Braun (DK), Jett Bandy (FD), Eric Thames, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton
Stackability – YELLOW
Minnesota at Texas – 8:05 PM ET
| Minnesota | Texas | ||||||||||
 | Phil Hughes |  | Martin Perez | ||||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| TEX-132 | 9.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.411 | 40.7% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 37.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.263 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 19.2% | 54.7% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.329 | 40.5% | 2.9% | 13.5% | 31.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.343 | 33.5% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 51.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Phil Hughes | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $10,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 16 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 17 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 11 | 5.04 | 5.95 | 13.1% | 5.0% | 35.4% | 37.7% | 14.6% | |
| 2017 | 3 | 4.42 | 5.40 | 16.7% | 4.6% | 26.9% | 51.9% | 9.6% | |
There was a time and place when Hughes was good at baseball. Unfortunately, the time is not now and the place is not in Arlington. Hughes has a low strikeout rate, he is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and he gives up a ton of hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters (40%).
Quick Breakdown: Easy fade in all formats.
| Martin Perez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $12,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 15 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 17 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 33 | 5.11 | 4.39 | 12.1% | 8.9% | 53.2% | 30.7% | 15.9% | |
| 2017 | 4 | 4.99 | 3.60 | 17.6% | 13.2% | 40.3% | 41.3% | 15.9% | |
Perez has struck out a few more batters this season, but only has a 6.6% swinging strike rate, which is actually down from where it was a year ago. He is a ground ball pitcher that generally doesn’t give up a lot of home runs. He doesn’t have the upside that we are looking for from a pitcher, but he is never my favorite pitcher to stack an offense against.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
The Twins are playing in a good hitting ballpark and get to face a pitcher that struggles against right-handed hitters. In the last two seasons, Martin Perez has allowed a .343 wOBA and a 33.5% hard contact rate to righties. He also has an extremely low strikeout rate of 11% against batters from the right side. Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, and Robbie Grossman are all viable targets tonight, but they may be better cash game targets or one-off targets than in a complete stack.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.374 | 0.297 | 40.7% | 10.1% | 20.2% | 32.8% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $5,300 | 2B | $10,200 |
| 2 | Jorge Polanco | SWITCH | 0.371 | 0.211 | 30.6% | 4.0% | 21.2% | 33.3% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,900 | SS | $7,800 |
| 3 | Miguel Sano | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.278 | 40.3% | 14.1% | 32.6% | 34.7% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $4,700 | IF/OF | $9,200 |
| 4 | Robbie Grossman | SWITCH | 0.424 | 0.222 | 36.7% | 12.6% | 21.0% | 41.7% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,200 | LF | $8,000 |
| 5 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.257 | 0.124 | 29.7% | 7.2% | 25.5% | 51.5% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,400 | RF | $8,700 |
| 6 | Chris Gimenez | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.178 | 39.3% | 9.8% | 35.3% | 40.7% | C | $2,100 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,400 |
| 7 | Eduardo Escobar | SWITCH | 0.263 | 0.115 | 28.7% | 6.1% | 22.0% | 41.5% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,400 |
| 8 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.252 | 0.021 | 15.1% | 3.8% | 24.8% | 57.1% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $4,000 | LF | $7,800 |
| 9 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.283 | 0.188 | 32.4% | 8.7% | 37.3% | 32.8% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,800 |
Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco (FD), Miguel Sano
Secondary Plays – Jorge Polanco (DK), Robbie Grossman, Chris Gimenez
Stackability – YELLOW
Texas
One of my favorite pastimes in MLB DFS is stacking against Phil Hughes. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher that allowed a 40%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. His wOBA allowed to lefties is a lot higher than it is to righties, but make no mistake about it – we can load up on hitters from both sides of the plate here. The Rangers are my second favorite offense to target tonight, right behind the Rockies.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Gomez | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.177 | 31.2% | 8.7% | 28.3% | 41.7% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,300 | CF | $8,400 |
| 2 | Shin-soo Choo | LEFT | 0.302 | 0.108 | 39.5% | 13.0% | 22.7% | 46.5% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,600 | RF | $9,000 |
| 3 | Nomar Mazara | LEFT | 0.344 | 0.195 | 30.3% | 7.3% | 18.0% | 45.5% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,100 | RF | $8,000 |
| 4 | Mike Napoli | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.237 | 34.9% | 10.2% | 29.8% | 36.9% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $8,400 |
| 5 | Rougned Odor | LEFT | 0.336 | 0.247 | 34.0% | 2.5% | 21.2% | 38.9% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $4,700 | 2B | $9,200 |
| 6 | Elvis Andrus | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.141 | 27.0% | 7.4% | 12.1% | 46.1% | SS | $2,900 | SS | $4,100 | SS | $8,000 |
| 7 | Jonathan Lucroy | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.178 | 32.6% | 7.6% | 16.1% | 40.4% | C | $2,900 | C | $4,300 | C | $8,400 |
| 8 | Joey Gallo | LEFT | 0.317 | 0.277 | 46.7% | 15.4% | 44.9% | 20.0% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $4,000 | IF/OF | $7,800 |
| 9 | Jurickson Profar | SWITCH | 0.308 | 0.111 | 24.5% | 12.1% | 19.5% | 46.4% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,600 | 2B | $7,200 |
Elite Plays – Carlos Gomez, Shin-Soo Choo (GPP), Nomar Mazara, Mike Napoli (FD), Rougned Odor
Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (Cash), Elvis Andrus, Jonathan Lucroy, Joey Gallo
Stackability – GREEN
Kansas City at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM ET
| Kansas City | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||||
 | Jason Vargas |  | Miguel Gonzalez | ||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| CWS-100 | 7.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.281 | 27.8% | 0.0% | 14.3% | 38.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.304 | 29.0% | 8.2% | 16.7% | 40.6% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.202 | 29.7% | 5.0% | 31.0% | 48.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.298 | 26.7% | 4.6% | 17.4% | 40.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jason Vargas | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,500 | Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $15,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 3 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 17 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3 | 3.96 | 2.25 | 23.4% | 6.4% | 36.4% | 33.3% | 15.2% | |
| 2017 | 3 | 2.09 | 0.44 | 31.1% | 2.7% | 53.1% | 26.5% | 20.4% | |
In his last six major league starts, Vargas has looked like a Cy Young candidate. The sample size is so small that it is tough to tell whether it is sustainable or whether he is going to continue to produce at a high level. He’s never been a high strikeout pitcher in this career and his fastball typically tops out at 88 MPH. His LOB% and HR/FB% are not sustainable, so we can expect a little regression moving forward. However, the strikeouts could be real, as he is inducing a 13% swinging strike rate this season. Vargas is going to be popular tonight, but for good reason. The White Sox may have the worst offense in baseball, but are much better against lefties than they are against righties. I don’t mind a Vargas fade here from an ownership angle.
Quick Breakdown: Viable in all formats, but an interesting fade at what should be high ownership.
| Miguel Gonzalez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $15,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 7 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 17 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 17 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | 4.61 | 3.73 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 40.1% | 28.6% | 18.1% | |
| 2017 | 3 | 4.38 | 2.84 | 18.8% | 8.8% | 42.1% | 22.4% | 19.0% | |
It pains me to say this, but I am going to have a lot of exposure to Gonzalez tonight. I don’t expect him to come out and pick up a strikeout per inning, but he typically stays out of trouble and is facing a Royals’ offense that lacks some serious pop outside of Mike Mosutakas. In the last two seasons, Gonzalez has held both left and right-handed hitters under a 29% hard contact rate, so if the Royals are going to get to him, it’ll be through singles and doubles. Gonzalez makes a great pivot off of Jason Vargas in tournaments and I can even make a case for playing him as an SP2 in cash games.
Quick Breakdown: Viable in tournaments and potentially as an SP2 in cash games.
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
When you hear the name Miguel Gonzalez, the natural reaction is to want to target hitters against him. Even though he doesn’t have a high strikeout rate, he is tough on both left and right-handed hitters, holding them under a .305 wOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate. Mike Moustakas is the only Royals’ hitter on my radar tonight. He owns a .363 wOBA and a 36% hard contact rate against righties.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Gordon | LEFT | 0.296 | 0.153 | 35.3% | 9.8% | 27.6% | 39.1% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,200 |
| 2 | Mike Moustakas | LEFT | 0.363 | 0.290 | 36.3% | 8.4% | 12.6% | 36.3% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $6,600 |
| 3 | Lorenzo Cain | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.085 | 28.1% | 7.2% | 21.4% | 50.0% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,800 |
| 4 | Eric Hosmer | LEFT | 0.341 | 0.166 | 35.2% | 9.8% | 18.7% | 57.6% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,600 |
| 5 | Salvador Perez | RIGHT | 0.310 | 0.195 | 35.2% | 3.0% | 21.4% | 35.5% | C | $2,900 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,600 |
| 6 | Brandon Moss | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.282 | 40.0% | 10.2% | 30.5% | 25.9% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B/OF | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
| 7 | Alcides Escobar | RIGHT | 0.278 | 0.084 | 20.5% | 3.9% | 15.3% | 47.9% | SS | $2,100 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $6,800 |
| 8 | Whit Merrifield | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.105 | 30.7% | 5.3% | 21.4% | 44.7% | 2B | $2,100 | 2B/OF | $3,500 | IF/OF | $6,800 |
| 9 | Jorge Bonifacio | RIGHT | 0.738 | 0.750 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | OF | $2,700 | RF | $5,200 |
Elite Plays – Mike Moustakas (DK)
Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas (FD)
Stackability – RED
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are absolutely dreadful against right-handed pitching, but their numbers look a lot better against southpaws. If you look at their projected lineup below, seven batters have at least a .329 wOBA against left-handed pitching (which is why I can see the merit for a Jason Vargas fade). When it comes down to it, I won’t be targeting any White Sox hitters in my lineup tonight, but I will probably have less Vargas exposure than the field.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Saladino | RIGHT | 0.357 | 0.100 | 33.8% | 7.9% | 16.8% | 52.8% | SS | $2,700 | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $7,200 |
| 2 | Tim Anderson | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.119 | 35.1% | 2.9% | 26.7% | 58.9% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,800 | SS | $7,500 |
| 3 | Melky Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.361 | 0.168 | 28.4% | 5.9% | 13.3% | 41.7% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,100 | LF | $8,100 |
| 4 | Jose Abreu | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.217 | 38.9% | 8.3% | 20.5% | 46.3% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $8,400 |
| 5 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.267 | 28.4% | 11.0% | 28.7% | 23.5% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $4,600 | 3B | $8,800 |
| 6 | Avisail Garcia | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.150 | 44.2% | 8.7% | 22.2% | 57.0% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,500 | RF | $6,800 |
| 7 | Matt Davidson | RIGHT | 0.411 | 0.214 | 37.5% | 6.7% | 40.0% | 12.5% | 1B | $2,500 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $6,300 |
| 8 | Geovany Soto | RIGHT | 0.462 | 0.355 | 33.3% | 6.1% | 21.2% | 33.3% | C | $2,400 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,400 |
| 9 | Jacob May | SWITCH | 0.098 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 80.0% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,900 | CF | $5,600 |