MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 22nd

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

LA Dodgers at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

LA Dodgers Cincinnati
ladodgersmlb Scott Kazmir cincinnatimlb Homer Bailey
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD -140 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.301 11 23.0% 15.3% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.422 2 43.2% 22.6%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.310 30 26.6% 23.8% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.290 2 25.9% 21.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Scott Kazmir
scott-kazmir-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,900 Salary:
FPPG: 28.9 FPPG:
Pitcher Rating: 62.2 Pitcher Rank: 7
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 98.2 4.89 4.82 15.8% 8.3% 7.9% 40.0% 28.9% 33.0%
2016 24 95.6 4.09 4.41 23.4% 8.6% 9.8% 41.0% 35.4% 25.3%
2015 31 94.9 4.10 3.10 20.3% 7.7% 10.3% 42.9% 37.3% 25.7%

We have one early game on the slate Monday, but it is only included in the all-day slate on FanDuel. If you are only playing in the main slate, feel free to scroll down to the next game. Kazmir comes into this start in relatively bad form, posting a 4.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.8%. Even with the bad form, he is listed as a sizable favorite against the Reds, who are ranked 25th in team wOBA and 18th in team ISO against left-handed pitching. There are better pitching targets in the slate, especially considering the high over/under in this game.

Homer Bailey
homer-bailey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,700 Salary:
FPPG: 35.0 FPPG:
Pitcher Rating: 61.5 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 4 91.3 2.96 3.66 31.4% 7.0% 11.0% 46.9% 26.5% 27.5%
2016 4 91.3 2.95 3.66 31.4% 7.0% 11.0% 46.9% 26.5% 27.5%
2015 2 85.5 5.65 5.56 5.9% 7.8% 7.0% 52.4% 31.0% 38.6%

Bailey has been sharp in his first four starts this season, posting a 2.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.4% and a walk rate of 7%. While we have to be encouraged by the form, we shouldn’t consider him a must play against a red-hot Dodgers’ offense. On the season, Los Angeles is ranked ninth in team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching. They are also ranked fourth in team wOBA over the last month of play. Let’s wait for a better matchup before targeting Bailey in daily fantasy.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Even though Josh Reddick has struggled since joining the Dodgers, their offense has been in a completely different gear since the trade. They have been one of the best offenses in baseball over the last month of play. They come into today’s game with the fifth highest implied team total on the board. Their matchup against Homer Bailey may not be ideal, but they do get to face him in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Chase Utley LEFT 0.309 0.145 0.386 2B $3,100
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.404 0.226 0.490 SS $3,700
3 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.358 0.200 0.412 1B $3,300
4 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.340 0.222 0.393 C $3,300
5 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.360 0.237 0.451 OF $3,000
6 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.354 0.181 0.220 OF $3,000
7 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.325 0.133 0.450 2B $2,900
8 Rob Segedin RIGHT 0.281 0.000 0.253 OF $2,400
9 Scott Kazmir LEFT 0.137 0.000 0.000 P $8,900
Team Averages 0.319 0.149 0.339

Elite Plays – Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds have struggled offensively this season, but they actually have the ninth highest team wOBA over the last month of play. Their run projection today against the Dodgers seems a bit low, especially considering the recent form of Scott Kazmir. In terms of his splits, there isn’t anything that stands out in this matchup. However, Kazmir has allowed 41 home runs in the last two seasons and no ballpark has yielded more home runs than Great American Ballpark this season.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.272 0.118 0.392 OF $3,100
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.314 0.154 0.614 2B $2,700
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.402 0.182 0.502 1B $3,500
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.315 0.212 0.341 OF $3,500
5 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.313 0.101 0.388 2B $2,800
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.254 0.150 0.253 OF $2,700
7 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.386 0.237 0.422 3B $3,100
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.232 0.071 0.344 C $2,500
9 Homer Bailey RIGHT 0.000 P $7,700
Team Averages 0.311 0.153 0.362

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Jose Peraza, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Houston at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Houston Pittsburgh
houstonmlb Doug Fister pittsburghmlb Jameson Taillon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT -150 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.348 22 33.2% 13.7% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.307 4 31.2% 17.4%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.304 10 26.3% 16.3% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.263 3 36.7% 23.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Doug Fister
doug-fister-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,100
FPPG: 28.0 FPPG: 13.5
Pitcher Rating: 41.2 Pitcher Rank: 17
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 96.8 4.70 5.20 16.8% 7.2% 6.0% 40.4% 35.1% 35.1%
2016 24 98.4 4.89 3.76 15.5% 8.0% 5.8% 45.9% 35.0% 30.5%
2015 15 110.3 4.47 4.19 14.0% 5.4% 5.2% 44.6% 34.1% 29.5%

Fister has been a regression candidate all season and we are finally starting to see that show in his recent results. In his last five starts, he has a 5.20 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.8%. He doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to make up for the runs that he is likely going to give up each start. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog against the Pirates in PNC Park. The Astros may be more lenient (Webster’s word of the day) with his pitch count than necessary, but Fister is an easy fade in both cash games and GPPs.

Jameson Taillon
jameson-taillon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $9,100
FPPG: 29.2 FPPG: 16.1
Pitcher Rating: 77.1 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 94.0 3.26 2.53 22.2% 3.2% 9.6% 54.3% 26.1% 28.7%
2016 11 87.9 3.49 3.00 19.8% 3.4% 8.1% 53.8% 23.9% 33.3%

Taillon is having a terrific rookie season, posting a 3.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.8% in his first 11 major league starts. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable favorite against an Astros’ offense that managed to score 32 runs in their series against the Orioles. While the Astros do have a lot of upside, they also have the third highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. At his price (especially on FanDuel), Taillon is one of the best pitching values on the board.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros see a negative ballpark shift tonight playing in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. They come into the game with the fourth lowest implied team total on the board. Their matchup against Jameson Taillon is a difficult one, as he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA this season. The only statistic that stands out in this matchup is Taillon’s 36.7% hard hit contact rate allowed to righties.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.338 0.169 0.495 OF $4,000 OF $4,600
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.259 0.130 0.388 3B $3,300 3B $3,800
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.359 0.166 0.484 2B $4,000 2B $5,500
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.366 0.212 0.394 SS $3,800 SS $4,600
5 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.318 0.214 0.392 C $3,200 C $3,400
6 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.293 0.135 0.246 1B $2,800 1B/3B $2,900
7 A.J. Reed LEFT 0.304 0.154 0.378 1B $2,500 1B $3,200
8 Tony Kemp LEFT 0.303 0.083 0.180 OF $2,800 OF $2,800
9 Doug Fister RIGHT 0.289 0.042 P $7,200 P $6,100
Team Averages 0.314 0.145 0.370

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are ranked well below the major league average in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching, but they draw a favorable matchup tonight against Doug Fister. In the last two seasons combined, Fister has allowed a .348 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .304 wOBA to right-handed hitters. This isn’t a great matchup for stolen bases. Fister has only allowed four stolen bases in the last two seasons and Evan Gattis has a caught stealing rate of 50%.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.293 0.102 0.312 2B $3,300 2B $3,700
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.350 0.152 0.253 OF $3,700 OF $5,200
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.353 0.182 0.394 OF $3,400 OF $4,300
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.333 0.163 0.233 OF $3,200 OF $4,900
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.326 0.145 0.310 1B $2,900 1B/3B $3,700
6 John Jaso LEFT 0.336 0.140 0.419 1B $2,500 1B $3,000
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.324 0.079 0.469 C $2,900 C $3,400
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.272 0.078 0.260 SS $2,400 SS $2,900
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.052 0.000 0.176 P $7,500 P $9,100
Team Averages 0.293 0.116 0.314

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, John Jaso

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Washington Baltimore
washingtonmlb A.J. Cole baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL -130 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.384 1 47.6% 24.1% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.307 6 30.2% 18.9%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.252 0 7.7% 13.3% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.329 5 28.7% 25.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

A.J. Cole
a.j.-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,400 Salary: $6,400
FPPG: 0.0 FPPG: 0.0
Pitcher Rating: 48.1 Pitcher Rank: 11
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
2015 1 65.0 3.27 5.79 20.5% 2.3% 8.3% 36.4% 36.4% 32.4%

You know what’s a great feeling? When you finish your content for the day and five minutes later a pitcher gets scratched. Thanks, Stephen Strasburg!

A.J. Cole will draw the start in his place. He has one career start under his belt and it came last season. In 22 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 5.79 ERA (2.92 FIP) with a strikeout rate of 20.5%. I always like to take a wait and see approach with young pitchers making their first few major league starts, especially when they weren’t even expecting to start in the first place. This could be a great night to load up on Orioles’ hitters.

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,600
FPPG: 14.6 FPPG: 7.5
Pitcher Rating: 60.4 Pitcher Rank: 9
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 90.0 3.50 3.45 26.1% 6.3% 10.4% 47.3% 39.2% 28.4%
2016 7 88.7 3.94 3.36 22.2% 7.0% 10.4% 36.2% 43.1% 29.6%

Bundy has pitched well in his rookie season, posting a 3.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.2%. In what is certainly out of the norm, he has actually pitched better as a starter than he has out of the bullpen. He was originally a small underdog, but since Stephen Strasburg was scratched, Bundy is now a favorite. The main issue is his matchup against the Nationals, who have the sixth highest team wOBA over the last month of play. Bundy’s price is still lower than his recent production, but he is a deep GPP flier at best tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

WHOA! The Nationals are ranked 11th, 6th, 11th, 6th, 11th, and 6th in the first six offensive categories below. While that is just a random coincidence, it does suggest that they are one of the best offensive teams in the National League. They see a favorable ballpark shift tonight playing in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Their matchup against Dylan Bundy may not be ideal, but there are plenty of reasons to like the Nationals tonight.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.366 0.237 0.366 SS $4,100 2B/OF $5,300
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.294 0.136 0.398 OF $3,500 OF $4,600
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.380 0.229 0.381 2B $4,200 1B/2B $5,300
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.432 0.294 0.511 OF $4,000 OF $5,400
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.312 0.148 0.209 C $3,500 C $4,500
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.330 0.155 0.408 3B $3,300 3B $5,000
7 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.291 0.164 0.533 1B $2,800 1B $4,200
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.302 0.159 0.199 SS $3,200 SS $3,200
9 Ben Revere LEFT 0.296 0.081 0.304 OF $2,500 OF $3,700
Team Averages 0.334 0.178 0.368

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Wilson Ramos, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles have one of the highest implied team totals in the slate. They are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and they draw a favorable matchup against A.J. Cole, who is making a spot start for Stephen Strasburg. Load up on the Orioles in both cash games and GPPs.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.347 0.212 0.343 OF $3,600 OF $4,600
2 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.387 0.125 0.304 OF $3,000 OF $3,600
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.383 0.248 0.330 3B $3,800 3B/SS $4,500
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.346 0.225 0.315 OF $3,300 OF $4,800
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.382 0.309 0.409 1B $3,600 1B $4,900
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.357 0.221 0.322 2B $3,200 2B $3,800
7 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.349 0.255 0.298 3B $3,300 1B $4,600
8 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.282 0.123 0.307 SS $2,300 SS $3,200
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.281 0.117 0.088 C $2,400 C $2,400
Team Averages 0.346 0.204 0.302

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Hyun-Soo Kim, Jonathan Schoop, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – GREEN

Boston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Boston Tampa Bay
bostonmlb David Price tampabaymlb Blake Snell
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -150 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.298 9 25.7% 19.9% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.289 0 32.5% 26.1%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.288 29 33.6% 26.4% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.311 3 29.1% 23.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price
david-price-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $11,000
FPPG: 35.3 FPPG: 18.5
Pitcher Rating: 89.5 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 6 101.8 4.17 3.63 18.0% 5.4% 9.5% 50.8% 33.3% 34.4%
2016 26 103.5 3.54 4.19 24.0% 5.2% 11.9% 45.2% 31.1% 35.3%
2015 32 105.9 3.27 2.45 25.3% 5.3% 11.9% 40.4% 36.4% 28.2%

Price figures to be one of the most popular pitching options in the slate. He hasn’t been in great form over the last month of play, but he finally gets to play in a pitcher’s ballpark. Not only that, but he should be very comfortable in Tropicana Field given the fact that he spent the first six years of his career in Tampa. The ballpark suits Price, as does the matchup. On the season, the Rays are ranked 22nd in team wOBA and 30th in team K% against left-handed pitching. No matter how you slice it, Price is one of the top pitching options in the slate.

Blake Snell
blake-snell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $6,800
FPPG: 30.7 FPPG: 15.6
Pitcher Rating: 55.3 Pitcher Rank: 12
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 92.0 4.35 3.00 27.3% 13.6% 12.8% 33.8% 35.4% 33.9%
2016 12 95.5 4.56 3.06 24.0% 12.7% 10.1% 40.4% 33.9% 29.9%

Snell has a 3.06 ERA and a strikeout rate of 24% this season. Those numbers look great on paper, but they don’t tell the entire story. He has a 4.56 SIERA, a walk rate of 12.7%, and he is only averaging 95.5 pitches per start. The Red Sox aren’t as good against left-handed pitching as they are against right-handed pitching, but they are still ranked third in team wOBA against southpaws. There is more risk than potential reward for Snell, especially with a lack of projected run support.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox come into tonight’s game with the sixth lowest run projection in the slate. While that may not be ideal, Boston has one of the most potent offenses in baseball and they are facing a rookie pitcher with command issues. The Red Sox could be a sneaky stack in tournaments, especially given the size of the slate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.343 0.148 0.378 2B $3,500 2B $4,000
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.380 0.113 0.247 SS $3,400 SS $4,100
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.331 0.188 0.543 1B $4,500 1B $4,700
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.358 0.210 0.457 OF $4,100 OF $5,200
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.368 0.245 0.403 1B $3,800 1B $4,600
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.336 0.158 0.310 OF $3,600 OF $3,700
7 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.354 0.200 0.570 C $3,000 C $3,300
8 Aaron Hill RIGHT 0.295 0.094 0.195 3B $2,600 2B/3B $2,700
9 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.280 0.000 0.380 OF $2,700 OF $2,300
Team Averages 0.338 0.151 0.387

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Sandy Leon

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

The Rays used to be one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching, but that’s far from the case now. They come into tonight’s game with the third lowest implied team total on the board. David Price hasn’t been in the best of form recently, but he is still an above-average pitcher with an above-average strikeout rate. The only statistic that stands out in this matchup is Price’s 29 home runs allowed to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.399 0.286 0.480 2B $3,500 2B $4,800
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.280 0.111 0.358 OF $2,800 OF $3,200
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.373 0.224 0.481 3B $3,600 3B $4,700
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.261 0.077 0.487 SS $3,400 SS $4,200
5 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.353 0.143 0.305 SS $2,800 3B $3,000
6 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.241 0.066 0.291 1B $2,900 1B $2,700
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.304 0.207 0.282 2B $2,700 2B/SS $3,000
8 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.296 0.170 0.318 OF $2,700 OF $2,900
9 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.245 0.060 0.174 C $2,200 C $2,200
Team Averages 0.306 0.149 0.353

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria

Stackability – RED

Colorado at Milwaukee – 7:20 PM ET

Colorado Milwaukee
coloradomlb Chad Bettis milwaukeemlb Jimmy Nelson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
COL -110 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.330 9 28.4% 17.7% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.361 21 35.4% 17.3%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.350 19 34.2% 18.4% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.295 16 27.1% 20.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chad Bettis
chad-bettis-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $5,200
FPPG: 24.5 FPPG: 11.0
Pitcher Rating: 49.8 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 94.0 5.00 5.19 14.3% 9.2% 7.9% 51.2% 27.9% 26.7%
2016 25 94.0 4.31 5.29 16.9% 6.7% 8.9% 51.3% 26.0% 31.0%
2015 20 94.1 4.08 4.23 19.5% 8.4% 9.8% 49.3% 28.5% 31.8%

Bettis may not be pitching in Coors Field tonight, but Miller Park isn’t exactly a pitcher’s paradise. Bettis has struggled in his last five starts, posting a 5.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.3%. That isn’t going to fly against most major league ball clubs, even the Brewers. This game is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 9.0 runs. I’m not in the business of betting on totals, but with these two pitchers on the mound I wouldn’t be surprised to see these teams hit the over.

Jimmy Nelson
jimmy-nelson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,100
FPPG: 24.7 FPPG: 11.8
Pitcher Rating: 47.8 Pitcher Rank: 14
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 97.6 4.45 9.00 21.3% 11.5% 7.4% 54.8% 24.7% 27.6%
2016 25 93.8 4.87 4.31 17.6% 10.5% 6.9% 49.4% 30.2% 33.3%
2015 30 93.0 4.09 4.11 19.7% 8.6% 10.0% 50.6% 29.4% 28.9%

Nelson doesn’t have a single green box in his pitching table above. You may be a big fan of the color red, but you should like the colors green and blue when it comes to the pitching stats listed in the Grind Down. Nelson has been an easy fade all season and that will continue tonight against a Rockies’ lineup that features a number of good left-handed hitters. With a high over/under in this game, both of these pitchers should be avoided in daily fantasy.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies have struggled on the road this season, but they come into tonight’s game with the fourth highest implied team total in the slate. Their matchup against Jimmy Nelson is pretty straightforward – heavily target the left-handed hitters. In the last two seasons, Nelson has allowed a .361 wOBA, 21 home runs, and a hard hit contact rate of 35.4% to batters from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 David Dahl LEFT 0.406 0.269 0.381 OF $3,500 OF $4,800
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.350 0.119 0.538 2B $3,700 2B $4,900
3 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.408 0.286 0.327 OF $3,700 OF $5,200
4 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.380 0.299 0.324 3B $4,000 3B $4,600
5 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.320 0.163 0.208 OF $3,200 OF $3,100
6 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.304 0.126 0.239 SS $2,900 1B/SS $3,300
7 Nick Hundley RIGHT 0.333 0.164 0.317 C $2,800 C $3,300
8 Ben Paulsen LEFT 0.326 0.179 0.080 1B $2,600 1B/OF $3,000
9 Chad Bettis RIGHT 0.098 0.000 0.000 P $7,000 P $5,200
Team Averages 0.325 0.178 0.268

Elite Plays – David Dahl, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Gerardo Parra, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee

The Brewers come into tonight’s game with the sixth highest implied team total on the board. They haven’t fared well against right-handed pitching, but they get to face Chad Bettis at home in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. In the last two seasons combined, Bettis has allowed a .330 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .350 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The Brewers are one of my favorite teams to stack, as they love to run when they get on base. They have more stolen bases (137) and have been caught stealing more times (43) than any team in baseball this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.343 0.118 0.282 3B $3,900 SS $4,600
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.308 0.131 0.279 2B $3,100 2B $3,700
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.362 0.218 0.402 OF $4,200 OF $4,800
4 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.281 0.086 0.313 OF $3,000 3B/OF $4,600
5 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.317 0.237 0.433 1B $3,400 1B $4,200
6 Kirk Nieuwenhuis LEFT 0.316 0.192 0.291 OF $2,900 OF $3,500
7 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.255 0.093 0.316 C $2,400 C $2,900
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.143 0.020 0.178 SS $2,300 SS $3,300
9 Jimmy Nelson RIGHT 0.113 0.013 0.000 P $6,400 P $5,100
Team Averages 0.271 0.123 0.277

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar, Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett, Hernan Perez, Chris Carter, Orlando Arcia

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious