MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 22nd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs
LA Dodgers at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET
| LA Dodgers | Cincinnati | ||||||||
| Scott Kazmir | | Homer Bailey | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD -140 | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.301 | 11 | 23.0% | 15.3% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.422 | 2 | 43.2% | 22.6% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.310 | 30 | 26.6% | 23.8% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.290 | 2 | 25.9% | 21.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Scott Kazmir | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $8,900 | Salary: | ||||||||
| FPPG: | 28.9 | FPPG: | ||||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 62.2 | Pitcher Rank: | 7 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 98.2 | 4.89 | 4.82 | 15.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 40.0% | 28.9% | 33.0% |
| 2016 | 24 | 95.6 | 4.09 | 4.41 | 23.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 41.0% | 35.4% | 25.3% |
| 2015 | 31 | 94.9 | 4.10 | 3.10 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 42.9% | 37.3% | 25.7% |
We have one early game on the slate Monday, but it is only included in the all-day slate on FanDuel. If you are only playing in the main slate, feel free to scroll down to the next game. Kazmir comes into this start in relatively bad form, posting a 4.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.8%. Even with the bad form, he is listed as a sizable favorite against the Reds, who are ranked 25th in team wOBA and 18th in team ISO against left-handed pitching. There are better pitching targets in the slate, especially considering the high over/under in this game.
| Homer Bailey | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | ||||||||
| FPPG: | 35.0 | FPPG: | ||||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 61.5 | Pitcher Rank: | 8 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 4 | 91.3 | 2.96 | 3.66 | 31.4% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 46.9% | 26.5% | 27.5% |
| 2016 | 4 | 91.3 | 2.95 | 3.66 | 31.4% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 46.9% | 26.5% | 27.5% |
| 2015 | 2 | 85.5 | 5.65 | 5.56 | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 52.4% | 31.0% | 38.6% |
Bailey has been sharp in his first four starts this season, posting a 2.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.4% and a walk rate of 7%. While we have to be encouraged by the form, we shouldn’t consider him a must play against a red-hot Dodgers’ offense. On the season, Los Angeles is ranked ninth in team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching. They are also ranked fourth in team wOBA over the last month of play. Let’s wait for a better matchup before targeting Bailey in daily fantasy.
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
Even though Josh Reddick has struggled since joining the Dodgers, their offense has been in a completely different gear since the trade. They have been one of the best offenses in baseball over the last month of play. They come into today’s game with the fifth highest implied team total on the board. Their matchup against Homer Bailey may not be ideal, but they do get to face him in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.
- Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.324 (9 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.342 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.171 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.46 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.48 (5 of 18)
Confirmed Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Utley | LEFT | 0.309 | 0.145 | 0.386 | 2B | $3,100 | ||
| 2 | Corey Seager | LEFT | 0.404 | 0.226 | 0.490 | SS | $3,700 | ||
| 3 | Adrian Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.358 | 0.200 | 0.412 | 1B | $3,300 | ||
| 4 | Yasmani Grandal | SWITCH | 0.340 | 0.222 | 0.393 | C | $3,300 | ||
| 5 | Joc Pederson | LEFT | 0.360 | 0.237 | 0.451 | OF | $3,000 | ||
| 6 | Josh Reddick | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.181 | 0.220 | OF | $3,000 | ||
| 7 | Howie Kendrick | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.133 | 0.450 | 2B | $2,900 | ||
| 8 | Rob Segedin | RIGHT | 0.281 | 0.000 | 0.253 | OF | $2,400 | ||
| 9 | Scott Kazmir | LEFT | 0.137 | 0.000 | 0.000 | P | $8,900 | ||
| Team Averages | — | 0.319 | 0.149 | 0.339 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez
Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson
Stackability – YELLOW
Cincinnati
The Reds have struggled offensively this season, but they actually have the ninth highest team wOBA over the last month of play. Their run projection today against the Dodgers seems a bit low, especially considering the recent form of Scott Kazmir. In terms of his splits, there isn’t anything that stands out in this matchup. However, Kazmir has allowed 41 home runs in the last two seasons and no ballpark has yielded more home runs than Great American Ballpark this season.
- Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.303 (25 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.329 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.159 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.7% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.90 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.46 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.02 (14 of 18)
Confirmed Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.272 | 0.118 | 0.392 | OF | $3,100 | ||
| 2 | Jose Peraza | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.154 | 0.614 | 2B | $2,700 | ||
| 3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.402 | 0.182 | 0.502 | 1B | $3,500 | ||
| 4 | Adam Duvall | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.212 | 0.341 | OF | $3,500 | ||
| 5 | Brandon Phillips | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.101 | 0.388 | 2B | $2,800 | ||
| 6 | Scott Schebler | LEFT | 0.254 | 0.150 | 0.253 | OF | $2,700 | ||
| 7 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.386 | 0.237 | 0.422 | 3B | $3,100 | ||
| 8 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.232 | 0.071 | 0.344 | C | $2,500 | ||
| 9 | Homer Bailey | RIGHT | 0.000 | P | $7,700 | ||||
| Team Averages | — | 0.311 | 0.153 | 0.362 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Jose Peraza, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Houston at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET
| Houston | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Doug Fister | | Jameson Taillon | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT -150 | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.348 | 22 | 33.2% | 13.7% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.307 | 4 | 31.2% | 17.4% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.304 | 10 | 26.3% | 16.3% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.263 | 3 | 36.7% | 23.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Doug Fister | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $6,100 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 28.0 | FPPG: | 13.5 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 41.2 | Pitcher Rank: | 17 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 96.8 | 4.70 | 5.20 | 16.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 40.4% | 35.1% | 35.1% |
| 2016 | 24 | 98.4 | 4.89 | 3.76 | 15.5% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 45.9% | 35.0% | 30.5% |
| 2015 | 15 | 110.3 | 4.47 | 4.19 | 14.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 44.6% | 34.1% | 29.5% |
Fister has been a regression candidate all season and we are finally starting to see that show in his recent results. In his last five starts, he has a 5.20 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.8%. He doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to make up for the runs that he is likely going to give up each start. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog against the Pirates in PNC Park. The Astros may be more lenient (Webster’s word of the day) with his pitch count than necessary, but Fister is an easy fade in both cash games and GPPs.
| Jameson Taillon | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $9,100 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 29.2 | FPPG: | 16.1 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 77.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 5 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 94.0 | 3.26 | 2.53 | 22.2% | 3.2% | 9.6% | 54.3% | 26.1% | 28.7% |
| 2016 | 11 | 87.9 | 3.49 | 3.00 | 19.8% | 3.4% | 8.1% | 53.8% | 23.9% | 33.3% |
Taillon is having a terrific rookie season, posting a 3.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.8% in his first 11 major league starts. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable favorite against an Astros’ offense that managed to score 32 runs in their series against the Orioles. While the Astros do have a lot of upside, they also have the third highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. At his price (especially on FanDuel), Taillon is one of the best pitching values on the board.
Batter Grind Down
Houston
The Astros see a negative ballpark shift tonight playing in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. They come into the game with the fourth lowest implied team total on the board. Their matchup against Jameson Taillon is a difficult one, as he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA this season. The only statistic that stands out in this matchup is Taillon’s 36.7% hard hit contact rate allowed to righties.
- Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (13 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.326 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.8% (28 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.87 (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.59 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.71 (15 of 18)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Springer | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.169 | 0.495 | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,600 |
| 2 | Alex Bregman | RIGHT | 0.259 | 0.130 | 0.388 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $3,800 |
| 3 | Jose Altuve | RIGHT | 0.359 | 0.166 | 0.484 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $5,500 |
| 4 | Carlos Correa | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.212 | 0.394 | SS | $3,800 | SS | $4,600 |
| 5 | Evan Gattis | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.214 | 0.392 | C | $3,200 | C | $3,400 |
| 6 | Marwin Gonzalez | SWITCH | 0.293 | 0.135 | 0.246 | 1B | $2,800 | 1B/3B | $2,900 |
| 7 | A.J. Reed | LEFT | 0.304 | 0.154 | 0.378 | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $3,200 |
| 8 | Tony Kemp | LEFT | 0.303 | 0.083 | 0.180 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $2,800 |
| 9 | Doug Fister | RIGHT | 0.289 | 0.042 | P | $7,200 | P | $6,100 | |
| Team Averages | — | 0.314 | 0.145 | 0.370 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa
Stackability – ORANGE
Pittsburgh
The Pirates are ranked well below the major league average in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching, but they draw a favorable matchup tonight against Doug Fister. In the last two seasons combined, Fister has allowed a .348 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .304 wOBA to right-handed hitters. This isn’t a great matchup for stolen bases. Fister has only allowed four stolen bases in the last two seasons and Evan Gattis has a caught stealing rate of 50%.
- Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (19 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.310 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.138 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.97 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.54 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.29 (9 of 18)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Harrison | RIGHT | 0.293 | 0.102 | 0.312 | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $3,700 |
| 2 | Starling Marte | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.152 | 0.253 | OF | $3,700 | OF | $5,200 |
| 3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.182 | 0.394 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,300 |
| 4 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.163 | 0.233 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,900 |
| 5 | David Freese | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.145 | 0.310 | 1B | $2,900 | 1B/3B | $3,700 |
| 6 | John Jaso | LEFT | 0.336 | 0.140 | 0.419 | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $3,000 |
| 7 | Francisco Cervelli | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.079 | 0.469 | C | $2,900 | C | $3,400 |
| 8 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.272 | 0.078 | 0.260 | SS | $2,400 | SS | $2,900 |
| 9 | Jameson Taillon | RIGHT | 0.052 | 0.000 | 0.176 | P | $7,500 | P | $9,100 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.293 | 0.116 | 0.314 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco
Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, John Jaso
Stackability – YELLOW
Washington at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
| Washington | Baltimore | ||||||||
| A.J. Cole | | Dylan Bundy | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BAL -130 | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.384 | 1 | 47.6% | 24.1% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.307 | 6 | 30.2% | 18.9% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.252 | 0 | 7.7% | 13.3% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.329 | 5 | 28.7% | 25.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| A.J. Cole | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $5,400 | Salary: | $6,400 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 0.0 | FPPG: | 0.0 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 48.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 11 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1 | 65.0 | 3.27 | 5.79 | 20.5% | 2.3% | 8.3% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 32.4% |
You know what’s a great feeling? When you finish your content for the day and five minutes later a pitcher gets scratched. Thanks, Stephen Strasburg!
A.J. Cole will draw the start in his place. He has one career start under his belt and it came last season. In 22 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 5.79 ERA (2.92 FIP) with a strikeout rate of 20.5%. I always like to take a wait and see approach with young pitchers making their first few major league starts, especially when they weren’t even expecting to start in the first place. This could be a great night to load up on Orioles’ hitters.
| Dylan Bundy | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $6,600 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 14.6 | FPPG: | 7.5 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 60.4 | Pitcher Rank: | 9 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 90.0 | 3.50 | 3.45 | 26.1% | 6.3% | 10.4% | 47.3% | 39.2% | 28.4% |
| 2016 | 7 | 88.7 | 3.94 | 3.36 | 22.2% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 36.2% | 43.1% | 29.6% |
Bundy has pitched well in his rookie season, posting a 3.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.2%. In what is certainly out of the norm, he has actually pitched better as a starter than he has out of the bullpen. He was originally a small underdog, but since Stephen Strasburg was scratched, Bundy is now a favorite. The main issue is his matchup against the Nationals, who have the sixth highest team wOBA over the last month of play. Bundy’s price is still lower than his recent production, but he is a deep GPP flier at best tonight.
Batter Grind Down
Washington
WHOA! The Nationals are ranked 11th, 6th, 11th, 6th, 11th, and 6th in the first six offensive categories below. While that is just a random coincidence, it does suggest that they are one of the best offensive teams in the National League. They see a favorable ballpark shift tonight playing in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Their matchup against Dylan Bundy may not be ideal, but there are plenty of reasons to like the Nationals tonight.
- Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.321 (11 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.337 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.169 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.4% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.88 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.34 (7 of 18)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.237 | 0.366 | SS | $4,100 | 2B/OF | $5,300 |
| 2 | Jayson Werth | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.136 | 0.398 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,600 |
| 3 | Daniel Murphy | LEFT | 0.380 | 0.229 | 0.381 | 2B | $4,200 | 1B/2B | $5,300 |
| 4 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.432 | 0.294 | 0.511 | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,400 |
| 5 | Wilson Ramos | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.148 | 0.209 | C | $3,500 | C | $4,500 |
| 6 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.155 | 0.408 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $5,000 |
| 7 | Ryan Zimmerman | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.164 | 0.533 | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $4,200 |
| 8 | Danny Espinosa | SWITCH | 0.302 | 0.159 | 0.199 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $3,200 |
| 9 | Ben Revere | LEFT | 0.296 | 0.081 | 0.304 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,700 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.334 | 0.178 | 0.368 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper
Secondary Plays – Wilson Ramos, Anthony Rendon
Stackability – YELLOW
Baltimore
The Orioles have one of the highest implied team totals in the slate. They are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and they draw a favorable matchup against A.J. Cole, who is making a spot start for Stephen Strasburg. Load up on the Orioles in both cash games and GPPs.
- Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.342 (2 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.312 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.202 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.8% (21 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.84 (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.71 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.68 (3 of 16)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.212 | 0.343 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,600 |
| 2 | Hyun-Soo Kim | LEFT | 0.387 | 0.125 | 0.304 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 |
| 3 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.383 | 0.248 | 0.330 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B/SS | $4,500 |
| 4 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.346 | 0.225 | 0.315 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,800 |
| 5 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.382 | 0.309 | 0.409 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,900 |
| 6 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.357 | 0.221 | 0.322 | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $3,800 |
| 7 | Pedro Alvarez | LEFT | 0.349 | 0.255 | 0.298 | 3B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,600 |
| 8 | J.J. Hardy | RIGHT | 0.282 | 0.123 | 0.307 | SS | $2,300 | SS | $3,200 |
| 9 | Caleb Joseph | RIGHT | 0.281 | 0.117 | 0.088 | C | $2,400 | C | $2,400 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.346 | 0.204 | 0.302 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis
Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Hyun-Soo Kim, Jonathan Schoop, Pedro Alvarez
Stackability – GREEN
Boston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET
| Boston | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| David Price | | Blake Snell | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BOS -150 | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.298 | 9 | 25.7% | 19.9% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.289 | 0 | 32.5% | 26.1% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.288 | 29 | 33.6% | 26.4% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.311 | 3 | 29.1% | 23.3% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| David Price | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $10,000 | Salary: | $11,000 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 35.3 | FPPG: | 18.5 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 89.5 | Pitcher Rank: | 2 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 6 | 101.8 | 4.17 | 3.63 | 18.0% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 50.8% | 33.3% | 34.4% |
| 2016 | 26 | 103.5 | 3.54 | 4.19 | 24.0% | 5.2% | 11.9% | 45.2% | 31.1% | 35.3% |
| 2015 | 32 | 105.9 | 3.27 | 2.45 | 25.3% | 5.3% | 11.9% | 40.4% | 36.4% | 28.2% |
Price figures to be one of the most popular pitching options in the slate. He hasn’t been in great form over the last month of play, but he finally gets to play in a pitcher’s ballpark. Not only that, but he should be very comfortable in Tropicana Field given the fact that he spent the first six years of his career in Tampa. The ballpark suits Price, as does the matchup. On the season, the Rays are ranked 22nd in team wOBA and 30th in team K% against left-handed pitching. No matter how you slice it, Price is one of the top pitching options in the slate.
| Blake Snell | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $6,800 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 30.7 | FPPG: | 15.6 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 55.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 12 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 92.0 | 4.35 | 3.00 | 27.3% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 33.8% | 35.4% | 33.9% |
| 2016 | 12 | 95.5 | 4.56 | 3.06 | 24.0% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 40.4% | 33.9% | 29.9% |
Snell has a 3.06 ERA and a strikeout rate of 24% this season. Those numbers look great on paper, but they don’t tell the entire story. He has a 4.56 SIERA, a walk rate of 12.7%, and he is only averaging 95.5 pitches per start. The Red Sox aren’t as good against left-handed pitching as they are against right-handed pitching, but they are still ranked third in team wOBA against southpaws. There is more risk than potential reward for Snell, especially with a lack of projected run support.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox come into tonight’s game with the sixth lowest run projection in the slate. While that may not be ideal, Boston has one of the most potent offenses in baseball and they are facing a rookie pitcher with command issues. The Red Sox could be a sneaky stack in tournaments, especially given the size of the slate.
- Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.346 (3 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.331 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.167 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.7% (5 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.91 (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.50 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.04 (13 of 18)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Pedroia | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.148 | 0.378 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,000 |
| 2 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.380 | 0.113 | 0.247 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,100 |
| 3 | David Ortiz | LEFT | 0.331 | 0.188 | 0.543 | 1B | $4,500 | 1B | $4,700 |
| 4 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.358 | 0.210 | 0.457 | OF | $4,100 | OF | $5,200 |
| 5 | Hanley Ramirez | RIGHT | 0.368 | 0.245 | 0.403 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,600 |
| 6 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | LEFT | 0.336 | 0.158 | 0.310 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,700 |
| 7 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.354 | 0.200 | 0.570 | C | $3,000 | C | $3,300 |
| 8 | Aaron Hill | RIGHT | 0.295 | 0.094 | 0.195 | 3B | $2,600 | 2B/3B | $2,700 |
| 9 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.280 | 0.000 | 0.380 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $2,300 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.338 | 0.151 | 0.387 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Mookie Betts
Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Sandy Leon
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Tampa Bay
The Rays used to be one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching, but that’s far from the case now. They come into tonight’s game with the third lowest implied team total on the board. David Price hasn’t been in the best of form recently, but he is still an above-average pitcher with an above-average strikeout rate. The only statistic that stands out in this matchup is Price’s 29 home runs allowed to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.
- Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.315 (22 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.329 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.163 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 25.5% (30 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.76 (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.23 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.46 (16 of 18)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Forsythe | RIGHT | 0.399 | 0.286 | 0.480 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,800 |
| 2 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.280 | 0.111 | 0.358 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,200 |
| 3 | Evan Longoria | RIGHT | 0.373 | 0.224 | 0.481 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $4,700 |
| 4 | Brad Miller | LEFT | 0.261 | 0.077 | 0.487 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,200 |
| 5 | Matt Duffy | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.143 | 0.305 | SS | $2,800 | 3B | $3,000 |
| 6 | Logan Morrison | LEFT | 0.241 | 0.066 | 0.291 | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $2,700 |
| 7 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.207 | 0.282 | 2B | $2,700 | 2B/SS | $3,000 |
| 8 | Steven Souza | RIGHT | 0.296 | 0.170 | 0.318 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $2,900 |
| 9 | Bobby Wilson | RIGHT | 0.245 | 0.060 | 0.174 | C | $2,200 | C | $2,200 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.306 | 0.149 | 0.353 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria
Stackability – RED
Colorado at Milwaukee – 7:20 PM ET
| Colorado | Milwaukee | ||||||||
| Chad Bettis | | Jimmy Nelson | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| COL -110 | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.330 | 9 | 28.4% | 17.7% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.361 | 21 | 35.4% | 17.3% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.350 | 19 | 34.2% | 18.4% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.295 | 16 | 27.1% | 20.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Chad Bettis | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $5,200 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 24.5 | FPPG: | 11.0 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 49.8 | Pitcher Rank: | 13 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 94.0 | 5.00 | 5.19 | 14.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 51.2% | 27.9% | 26.7% |
| 2016 | 25 | 94.0 | 4.31 | 5.29 | 16.9% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 51.3% | 26.0% | 31.0% |
| 2015 | 20 | 94.1 | 4.08 | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 49.3% | 28.5% | 31.8% |
Bettis may not be pitching in Coors Field tonight, but Miller Park isn’t exactly a pitcher’s paradise. Bettis has struggled in his last five starts, posting a 5.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.3%. That isn’t going to fly against most major league ball clubs, even the Brewers. This game is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 9.0 runs. I’m not in the business of betting on totals, but with these two pitchers on the mound I wouldn’t be surprised to see these teams hit the over.
| Jimmy Nelson | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $5,100 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 24.7 | FPPG: | 11.8 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 47.8 | Pitcher Rank: | 14 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 97.6 | 4.45 | 9.00 | 21.3% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 54.8% | 24.7% | 27.6% |
| 2016 | 25 | 93.8 | 4.87 | 4.31 | 17.6% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 49.4% | 30.2% | 33.3% |
| 2015 | 30 | 93.0 | 4.09 | 4.11 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 50.6% | 29.4% | 28.9% |
Nelson doesn’t have a single green box in his pitching table above. You may be a big fan of the color red, but you should like the colors green and blue when it comes to the pitching stats listed in the Grind Down. Nelson has been an easy fade all season and that will continue tonight against a Rockies’ lineup that features a number of good left-handed hitters. With a high over/under in this game, both of these pitchers should be avoided in daily fantasy.
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
The Rockies have struggled on the road this season, but they come into tonight’s game with the fourth highest implied team total in the slate. Their matchup against Jimmy Nelson is pretty straightforward – heavily target the left-handed hitters. In the last two seasons, Nelson has allowed a .361 wOBA, 21 home runs, and a hard hit contact rate of 35.4% to batters from the left side of the plate.
- Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.340 (3 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.351 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.3% (11 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.32 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.56 (4 of 18)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Dahl | LEFT | 0.406 | 0.269 | 0.381 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,800 |
| 2 | DJ LeMahieu | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.119 | 0.538 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $4,900 |
| 3 | Carlos Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.408 | 0.286 | 0.327 | OF | $3,700 | OF | $5,200 |
| 4 | Nolan Arenado | RIGHT | 0.380 | 0.299 | 0.324 | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $4,600 |
| 5 | Gerardo Parra | LEFT | 0.320 | 0.163 | 0.208 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,100 |
| 6 | Daniel Descalso | LEFT | 0.304 | 0.126 | 0.239 | SS | $2,900 | 1B/SS | $3,300 |
| 7 | Nick Hundley | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.164 | 0.317 | C | $2,800 | C | $3,300 |
| 8 | Ben Paulsen | LEFT | 0.326 | 0.179 | 0.080 | 1B | $2,600 | 1B/OF | $3,000 |
| 9 | Chad Bettis | RIGHT | 0.098 | 0.000 | 0.000 | P | $7,000 | P | $5,200 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.325 | 0.178 | 0.268 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – David Dahl, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado
Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Gerardo Parra, Daniel Descalso
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Milwaukee
The Brewers come into tonight’s game with the sixth highest implied team total on the board. They haven’t fared well against right-handed pitching, but they get to face Chad Bettis at home in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. In the last two seasons combined, Bettis has allowed a .330 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .350 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The Brewers are one of my favorite teams to stack, as they love to run when they get on base. They have more stolen bases (137) and have been caught stealing more times (43) than any team in baseball this season.
- Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (21 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.339 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.154 (22 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.5% (30 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.04 (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.10 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.44 (6 of 18)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Villar | SWITCH | 0.343 | 0.118 | 0.282 | 3B | $3,900 | SS | $4,600 |
| 2 | Scooter Gennett | LEFT | 0.308 | 0.131 | 0.279 | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $3,700 |
| 3 | Ryan Braun | RIGHT | 0.362 | 0.218 | 0.402 | OF | $4,200 | OF | $4,800 |
| 4 | Hernan Perez | RIGHT | 0.281 | 0.086 | 0.313 | OF | $3,000 | 3B/OF | $4,600 |
| 5 | Chris Carter | RIGHT | 0.317 | 0.237 | 0.433 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $4,200 |
| 6 | Kirk Nieuwenhuis | LEFT | 0.316 | 0.192 | 0.291 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 |
| 7 | Martin Maldonado | RIGHT | 0.255 | 0.093 | 0.316 | C | $2,400 | C | $2,900 |
| 8 | Orlando Arcia | RIGHT | 0.143 | 0.020 | 0.178 | SS | $2,300 | SS | $3,300 |
| 9 | Jimmy Nelson | RIGHT | 0.113 | 0.013 | 0.000 | P | $6,400 | P | $5,100 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.271 | 0.123 | 0.277 | — | — | — | — |