MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-05 02:56:32

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Milwaukee at Washington – 11:05 AM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Milwaukee					Washington
			Junior Guerra					Max Scherzer
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -240					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.285	3	21.5%	10.4%	SP vs. Left	0.299	23	27.0%	7.0%
SP vs. Right	0.288	5	21.5%	4.7%	SP vs. Right	0.225	24	36.5%	2.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Junior Guerra
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:
					FPPG:		33.9	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		53.6	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	5	95.0	4.37	3.00	18.6%	7.0%	9.5%	47.3%	35.5%	36.8%
2016	11	92.8	4.14	3.25	21.8%	7.6%	11.1%	43.1%	37.8%	36.8%
2015	0	0.0	3.28	6.75	16.7%	5.6%	10.6%	57.1%	21.4%	21.4%

Happy 4th of July everyone!

Guerra takes the mound for the Brewers in a game that starts bright and early in the morning. This game is only included in the all-day slate on FanDuel, so most of you can just scroll down to the next game. Guerra’s ERA is much lower than his SIERA this season, which suggests some regression moving forward. He has a mediocre strikeout rate and he’s the largest underdog on the schedule. With Max Scherzer pitching opposite him, run support could be very limited.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Max Scherzer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$12,000	Salary:
					FPPG:		45.3	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		99.5	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	6	107.0	2.26	1.96	37.9%	4.6%	16.0%	33.3%	50.6%	30.7%
2016	17	104.8	2.88	3.30	33.1%	6.5%	15.2%	34.5%	46.7%	28.0%
2015	33	101.8	2.63	2.79	30.7%	3.8%	15.3%	35.8%	45.4%	28.1%

Scherzer has been dominant in close to every facet this season. He is one of the only pitchers in baseball whose pitching table is completely filled with blue boxes. He owns a 2.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 33.1%. To make matters even better, he is pitching at home against a Brewers’ offense that leads the majors in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Scherzer does allow a ton of home runs, but the strikeout potential more than makes up for it.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

It should come as no surprise that the Brewers have the lowest team total on the board. They draw an awful matchup against Max Scherzer, who has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters. While Scherzer has allowed 47 home runs in the last two seasons combined, I will not be targeting any Brewers’ hitters in this one.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 26.2% (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.10 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.69 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.338	0.118	0.333	SS	$3,500
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.308	0.131	0.358	2B	$3,000
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.359	0.211	0.497	OF	$4,200
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.351	0.168	0.293	C	$2,800
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.325	0.245	0.347	1B	$3,400
6	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.315	0.183	0.387	OF	$2,900
7	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.316	0.140	0.383	3B	$2,300
8	Ramon Flores	LEFT	0.260	0.061	0.257	OF	$2,100
9	Junior Guerra	RIGHT	0.126	0.000	0.293	P	$8,100
	Team Averages	—	0.300	0.140	0.350	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Washington

The Nationals have a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching this season and they come into today’s game with a mediocre team total of 4.31 runs. They draw an average matchup against Junior Guerra at home. While the sample size is still small (11 starts), Guerra has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA this season.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.162 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.2% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.58 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.31 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.300	0.068	0.249	OF	$3,700
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.285	0.128	0.351	OF	$3,900
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.446	0.315	0.386	OF	$4,300
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.374	0.220	0.383	2B	$4,000
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.318	0.159	0.406	C	$3,600
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.291	0.166	0.224	1B	$3,300
7	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.310	0.129	0.325	3B	$3,200
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.307	0.167	0.420	SS	$3,200
9	Max Scherzer	RIGHT	0.188	0.014	0.000	P	$12,000
	Team Averages	—	0.313	0.152	0.305	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – NONE

LA Angels at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Angels					Tampa Bay
			Nick Tropeano					Matt Moore
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -130					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.331	3	25.6%	11.9%	SP vs. Left	0.317	7	16.6%	6.2%
SP vs. Right	0.334	7	19.4%	6.5%	SP vs. Right	0.348	18	21.0%	7.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Nick Tropeano
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$9,200
					FPPG:		30.4	FPPG:		15.2
					Pitcher Rating:		56.5	Pitcher Rank:		16
2016	10	97.8	4.70	3.25	22.1%	11.5%	12.8%	34.4%	46.5%	35.4%
2015	7	93.0	3.58	3.82	23.6%	6.2%	11.5%	38.5%	40.4%	24.8%

Tropeano is making his 11th start of the season, posting a 4.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.1% in his first ten outings. He comes into today’s game as a small favorite on the road, although his matchup against the Rays is somewhat appealing. On the season, Tampa Bay is ranked 24th in team wOBA and 29th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. While Tropeano does provide decent upside at his price point, he is best suited as a deep GPP play.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Moore
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$7,200
					FPPG:		28.6	FPPG:		14.6
					Pitcher Rating:		60.3	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	6	104.0	4.19	3.72	21.7%	5.7%	11.5%	31.1%	50.9%	30.4%
2016	16	100.8	4.09	4.67	22.0%	6.8%	10.8%	38.3%	41.5%	33.7%
2015	12	88.0	4.67	5.43	16.6%	8.3%	9.9%	39.2%	38.7%	31.7%

Moore is coming off of his best start in the better part of a month. He struck out six batters over seven shutout innings against a tough Red Sox lineup. Moore is one of those pitchers that is streaky, so this could be a good time to hop on while his price is still low. He draws a decent matchup against the Angels, who are ranked at or below the major league average in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels are coming off of a huge offensive series against the Red Sox. We shouldn’t put too much stock into it though, as facing a few mediocre pitchers in Fenway Park isn’t exactly the worst stretch of matchups. They draw a boom or bust type of matchup against Matt Moore today. While he is coming off of a strong start, Moore has allowed a .348 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.321 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.157 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 16.4% (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.22 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.82 (23 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.360	0.124	0.311	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,000
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.315	0.165	0.323	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,500
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.414	0.247	0.502	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,200
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.336	0.266	0.387	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,100
5	Jefry Marte	RIGHT	0.307	0.226	0.167	3B	$2,200	1B/3B	$3,700
6	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.283	0.130	0.377	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,300
7	Johnny Giavotella	LEFT	0.285	0.067	0.294	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,000
8	Jett Bandy	RIGHT	0.607	0.667	0.304	C	$2,000	C	$2,200
9	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.250	0.053	0.237	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.351	0.216	0.322	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Yunel Escobar, Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

The Rays have a slightly below-average team total, as they square off against Nick Tropeano at home. This isn’t a great matchup by any means, but Tropeano has allowed a .330+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. I don’t mind their offense as a whole, but see their hitters as secondary plays in this slate.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.303 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.181 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.1% (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.08 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.18 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.325	0.113	0.335	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,600
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.339	0.193	0.421	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,000
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.320	0.186	0.322	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,600
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.316	0.180	0.271	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,500
5	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.302	0.130	0.815	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300
6	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.317	0.175		OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400
7	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.350	0.280	0.245	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,200
8	Oswaldo Arcia	LEFT	0.308	0.183	0.484	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400
9	Hank Conger	SWITCH	0.328	0.195	0.301	C	$2,200	C	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.182	0.399	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Brad Miller, Evan Longoria

Stackability – NONE

Miami at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Miami					NY Mets
			Tom Koehler					Matt Harvey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -150					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.342	18	18.7%	11.3%	SP vs. Left	0.322	19	22.6%	7.2%
SP vs. Right	0.308	10	16.6%	9.6%	SP vs. Right	0.254	7	23.2%	3.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tom Koehler
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,800
					FPPG:		26.4	FPPG:		12.3
					Pitcher Rating:		52.3	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	6	95.0	3.99	4.36	23.9%	8.5%	10.5%	39.6%	34.1%	25.8%
2016	16	95.0	5.03	4.45	18.9%	12.1%	9.0%	43.9%	32.9%	24.4%
2015	31	96.0	4.67	4.08	17.1%	9.6%	7.3%	46.0%	35.6%	34.5%

Koehler has seen a nice boost in his strikeout rate over the last month of play, but is still an average right-handed pitcher in terms of his fantasy value. In 16 starts this season, he has a 5.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate just under 20%. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Mets, but he is listed as a sizable underdog on the road. Given his command issues, I will be avoiding Koehler in both cash games and GPPs.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Harvey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$7,000
					FPPG:		24.8	FPPG:		12.2
					Pitcher Rating:		76.6	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	5	87.4	4.33	2.83	19.3%	6.1%	9.6%	37.8%	40.2%	29.4%
2016	16	89.9	4.37	4.55	18.9%	6.6%	10.1%	39.7%	35.3%	30.4%
2015	29	96.5	3.23	2.71	24.9%	4.9%	11.6%	46.0%	36.1%	26.7%

Harvey has a low ERA over the last month of play, but his peripheral statistics suggest that he really hasn’t pitched that much better during that stretch. He is having a disappointing season overall with a 4.37 SIERA and a strikeout rate of only 18.9%. The velocity has been there, but he isn’t generating as many swings and misses and he isn’t getting into enough favorable counts. Now, with all of that said, he is worth a look today against the Marlins at home. If he can pitch around the left-handed hitters in this lineup, he will have a good shot at picking up the win.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins have the third lowest team total on the board today, as they square off against Matt Harvey. This isn’t a great matchup by any means, but he has struggled a bit with left-handed hitters in his career. The lefties in his lineup could be worth a look as one-offs in GPPs, but the rest of the Marlins can be avoided.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.134 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.7% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.18 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.46 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.377	0.193	0.395	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,700
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.308	0.095	0.272	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,400
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.367	0.151	0.342	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.311	0.144	0.464	OF	$2,900	OF	$5,000
5	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.350	0.251	0.423	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000
6	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.365	0.260	0.543	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,500
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.310	0.128	0.344	C	$3,300	C	$3,600
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.271	0.081	0.244	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,600
9	Tom Koehler	RIGHT	0.112	0.016	0.000	P	$7,200	P	$6,800
	Team Averages	—	0.308	0.147	0.336	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

The Mets may be favorites in this one, but they come into the game with the 11th lowest team total on the board. They draw a decent matchup against Tom Koehler, who has a high walk rate and a high SIERA. He has also had problems with left-handed hitters, allowing a .342 wOBA and 18 home runs over the last two seasons.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.172 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.0% (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.58 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.04 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.371	0.225	0.328	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600
2	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.328	0.172	0.227	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,600
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.375	0.259	0.358	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,400
4	James Loney	LEFT	0.315	0.096	0.406	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,300
5	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.315	0.163	0.321	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,600
6	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.283	0.116	0.279	3B	$2,000	3B	$2,500
7	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.251	0.000	0.220	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,000
8	Travis D’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.305	0.153	0.191	C	$2,200	C	$2,900
9	Matt Harvey	RIGHT	0.086	0.033	0.000	P	$8,400	P	$7,000
	Team Averages	—	0.292	0.135	0.259	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – NONE

Texas at Boston – 1:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Texas					Boston
			Nick Martinez					Rick Porcello
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -165					10.5
SP vs. Left	0.310	7	12.4%	11.1%	SP vs. Left	0.320	21	21.2%	5.5%
SP vs. Right	0.383	12	13.6%	7.2%	SP vs. Right	0.336	17	20.0%	4.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Nick Martinez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		11.4	FPPG:		3.5
					Pitcher Rating:		21.9	Pitcher Rank:		29
L30 Days	3	96.7	6.21	4.58	8.6%	12.4%	7.9%	52.5%	34.4%	29.5%
2016	3	103.7	6.48	5.00	8.1%	14.0%	7.7%	54.0%	33.3%	28.6%
2015	21	100.9	4.92	3.96	13.8%	8.2%	7.4%	42.3%	33.7%	30.1%

Martinez has a few too many red boxes in his pitching table above. On the season, he owns a 6.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 8.1%. He has a BB:K ratio close to 2.00. That is one of the worst in baseball. He should obviously be avoided today against the Red Sox, who just so happen to lead the majors in both team wOBA against right-handed pitching and in runs scored per game.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Rick Porcello
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$8,000
					FPPG:		34.3	FPPG:		17.6
					Pitcher Rating:		63.4	Pitcher Rank:		10
L30 Days	6	95.3	4.02	3.96	19.7%	4.6%	7.0%	44.5%	37.3%	30.4%
2016	16	102.0	3.84	3.78	21.5%	5.1%	7.4%	46.2%	35.5%	29.7%
2015	28	98.0	3.73	4.92	20.2%	5.2%	8.5%	45.7%	32.5%	32.8%

Porcello hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations after signing that big contract with the Red Sox. Over the last two seasons, he has a SIERA just under 4.00 with a strikeout rate around 21%. He doesn’t walk a ton of batters, but he pitches in a bad ballpark and he generally faces a tough opponent in most of his starts. The Rangers qualify as another bad matchup, as they are ranked above the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers may be underdogs today, but they are still one of the top offenses to target. They see a major ballpark boost playing in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park and they draw a decent matchup against Rick Porcello. Over the last two seasons, Porcello has allowed a .320+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.9% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.99 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.87 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.384	0.195	0.346	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,600
2	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.312	0.165	0.502	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,600
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.358	0.189	0.264	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.311	0.144	0.368	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,600
5	Prince Fielder	LEFT	0.357	0.155	0.408	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,500
6	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.325	0.215	0.341	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,700
7	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.281	0.079	0.302	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,300
8	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.349	0.220	0.249	OF	$2,300	1B	$2,800
9	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.307	0.195	0.182	C	$2,200	C	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.173	0.329	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder, Rougned Odor

Stackability – GPP

Boston

The Red Sox allowed the Angels to score 20 runs against them on Saturday night. They turned around and score ten runs against them yesterday. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if they put up double-digit runs again today. They draw the best matchup on the board, as they take on the very hittable Nick Martinez. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here and I like loading up on Boston bats in both cash games and GPPs.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.355 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.1% (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.56 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.63 (1 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.357	0.204	0.288	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,400
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.354	0.147	0.279	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,400
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.342	0.118	0.298	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,900
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.436	0.342	0.412	1B	$4,800	1B	$5,500
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.309	0.142	0.343	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,800
6	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.385	0.290	0.363	OF	$3,600	OF	$5,100
7	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.305	0.105		OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400
8	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.341	0.185	0.296	3B	$2,700	1B/3B	$3,800
9	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.221	0.070	0.287	C	$2,200	C	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.339	0.178	0.321	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley, Brock Holt

Stackability – Cash & GPP

NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
NY Yankees					Chicago White Sox
			CC Sabathia					James Shields
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -125					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.260	4	26.7%	6.7%	SP vs. Left	0.378	29	19.8%	11.3%
SP vs. Right	0.343	28	17.0%	7.8%	SP vs. Right	0.318	19	25.8%	8.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
CC Sabathia
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$7,600
					FPPG:		30.2	FPPG:		15.2
					Pitcher Rating:		52.0	Pitcher Rank:		21
L30 Days	6	100.5	4.97	3.57	16.5%	9.9%	10.1%	48.6%	34.3%	28.4%
2016	13	95.2	4.65	3.17	18.7%	9.2%	9.7%	45.7%	35.4%	25.2%
2015	29	93.2	4.08	4.73	18.9%	6.9%	9.1%	45.9%	32.4%	29.1%

Sabathia has transformed into a different pitcher at this stage in his career. He is no longer going to blow his fastball by hitters. While he is having a better season than most expected, regression could be coming in the second half of the season. His ERA is much lower than his SIERA and it’s going to be tough for him to continue to pitch out of trouble. He is an easy fade today against the White Sox in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the day.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
James Shields
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$4,600
					FPPG:		21.1	FPPG:		9.2
					Pitcher Rating:		49.7	Pitcher Rank:		23
L30 Days	6	85.7	6.45	13.70	10.8%	13.9%	5.5%	37.5%	38.5%	40.8%
2016	16	94.8	4.92	5.85	17.8%	10.4%	9.4%	44.4%	33.9%	34.4%
2015	33	101.1	3.72	3.91	25.1%	9.4%	12.4%	44.9%	34.4%	31.2%

Shields wasn’t awful in his last start, but that was the exception rather than the rule. So far this season, he has a 4.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.8% and a walk rate of 10.4%. The Yankees haven’t been great offensively, but it’s going to take a lot more than one decent outing for me to consider using Shields in anything other than a lowball DFS contest.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees haven’t been great against right-handed pitching this season, but they come into this game with the fifth highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against James Shields, who has allowed a .370+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.149 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.5% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.16 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.90 (5 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.313	0.107	0.248	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100
2	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.335	0.143	0.297	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,700
3	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.324	0.202	0.227	3B	$3,400	1B/3B	$3,600
4	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.329	0.209	0.452	C	$3,700	C	$4,600
5	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.353	0.278	0.460	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,100
6	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.290	0.129	0.259	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,400
7	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.302	0.112	0.358	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,100
8	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.307	0.130	0.395	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,900
9	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.285	0.125	0.190	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.159	0.321	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Starlin Castro

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are small underdogs at home, but this is still an exploitable matchup. Over the last two seasons, CC Sabathia has allowed a .343 wOBA and 28 home runs to right-handed hitters. He has been very tough on lefties, but right-handed hitters continue to have great success against Sabathia.

White Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.314 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.146 (22 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.5% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.17 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.60 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.088	0.000	0.326	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,600
2	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.318	0.066	0.330	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.291	0.128	0.349	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,500
4	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.370	0.349	0.300	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,300
5	Brett Lawrie	RIGHT	0.349	0.192	0.407	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,500
6	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.239	0.027	0.316	C	$2,600	C	$2,600
7	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.306	0.111	0.245	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000
8	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.275	0.111	0.399	SS	$2,800	3B/SS	$3,500
9	J.B. Shuck	LEFT	0.286	0.080	0.255	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.280	0.118	0.325	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 4th

Milwaukee at Washington – 11:05 AM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – NONE

LA Angels at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Yunel Escobar, Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Brad Miller, Evan Longoria

Stackability – NONE

Miami at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – NONE

Texas at Boston – 1:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder, Rougned Odor

Stackability – GPP

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley, Brock Holt

Stackability – Cash & GPP

NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Starlin Castro

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie

Stackability – GPP

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