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MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-27 03:21:19

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Before we get into the slate, we need to touch on the passing of Jose Fernandez. The entire baseball community was shocked and saddened by the news yesterday. My thoughts go out to his family, teammates, and the city of Miami. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball and he had a truly infectious personality. May we all find something that we love as much as he loved baseball. Rest in peace champ.

Arizona at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Arizona Washington
arizonamlb Archie Bradley washingtonmlb Tanner Roark
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -200 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.390 10 38.2% 17.8% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.282 6 29.9% 19.0%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.290 6 34.4% 25.5% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.281 9 19.7% 20.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Archie Bradley
archie-bradley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,600
FPPG: 26.6 FPPG: 12.7
Pitcher Rating: 50.6 Pitcher Rank: 15
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 88.8 3.96 4.85 22.8% 7.9% 8.8% 44.0% 28.0% 30.8%
2016 24 99.2 4.46 5.02 21.5% 10.7% 7.9% 46.3% 29.7% 36.4%
2015 8 80.5 5.28 5.80 14.3% 13.7% 5.9% 58.0% 27.7% 38.6%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.53 — K%: 20.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.355
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.84 — K%: 19.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.328

Bradley will be on the mound for the Diamondbacks tonight, as they square off against the Nationals. While he sports an above-average strikeout rate, that’s about all he has going for him. In 24 starts this season, he has a 4.46 SIERA with a walk rate of 10.5%. He comes into tonight’s game as a massive underdog on the road. He is an easy fade against Washington, who is ranked right at or above the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season.

Tanner Roark
tanner-roark-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $10,400
FPPG: 34.0 FPPG: 17.7
Pitcher Rating: 71.8 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 98.0 4.41 1.13 22.2% 11.1% 11.2% 49.4% 29.1% 23.2%
2016 31 102.5 4.29 2.70 19.9% 8.4% 8.9% 49.4% 30.3% 24.5%
2015 12 97.0 4.16 4.38 15.0% 5.6% 7.1% 47.8% 30.6% 26.3%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.09 — K%: 19.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.298
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.47 — K%: 16.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.304

Roark has pitched well at home in the last two seasons, posting a 3.09 ERA with a strikeout rate of 19.7% and a wOBA allowed of .298. His numbers suggest some regression, but as a huge favorite in a short slate, it’s hard to avoid Roark tonight. He draws a favorable matchup against the Diamondbacks, who are ranked 24th in team K% against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have been a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching this season, but they are facing a pitcher that limits hard contact and they are facing him on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. They come into the game with the third lowest implied team total in the slate. I will be avoiding all Diamondbacks’ hitters in this one, as Tanner Roark has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.375 0.170 29.5% 0.425 2B $3,600 2B $4,600
2 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.301 0.127 30.5% 0.253 SS $2,500 OF/SS $3,000
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.366 0.186 35.7% 0.433 1B $3,900 1B $4,400
4 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.306 0.130 34.8% 0.329 C $2,900 C $3,000
5 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.369 0.284 41.9% 0.231 3B $3,100 3B $3,800
6 Yasmany Tomas RIGHT 0.308 0.206 39.9% 0.387 OF $2,600 OF $3,000
7 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.337 0.170 32.1% 0.468 OF $3,600 3B/OF $3,900
8 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.306 0.145 38.5% 0.360 OF $2,400 OF $3,400
9 Archie Bradley RIGHT 0.050 0.000 6.7% 0.000 P $6,400 P $6,600
Team Averages — 0.302 0.158 32.2% 0.321 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals have been a slightly above-average offense against right-handed pitching this season. Even though their offense has been ice cold over the last month of play, they come into tonight’s game with the third highest run projection in the slate. Archie Bradley has a 36.4% hard contact rate this season and he has allowed a .390 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.405 0.265 33.2% 0.398 OF $4,100 2B/OF $5,600
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.301 0.140 33.0% 0.258 OF $3,500 OF $3,600
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.351 0.188 35.0% 0.242 OF $3,400 OF $4,500
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.336 0.181 37.2% 0.252 3B $3,300 3B $3,500
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.347 0.160 35.1% 0.396 C $3,300 C $4,100
6 Stephen Drew LEFT 0.380 0.276 38.9% 0.358 SS $2,500 2B/SS $2,900
7 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.275 0.145 33.9% 0.281 1B $3,000 1B $3,200
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.297 0.140 30.2% 0.223 SS $2,900 SS $2,900
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.168 0.000 7.7% 0.219 P $8,500 P $10,400
Team Averages — 0.318 0.166 31.6% 0.292 — — — —

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Stephen Drew

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh
cubsmlb Kyle Hendricks pittsburghmlb Chad Kuhl
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -146 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.270 6 23.4% 22.9% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.347 4 36.5% 14.5%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.237 9 27.0% 23.2% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.271 2 27.1% 20.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Hendricks
kyle-hendricks-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,100 Salary: $12,000
FPPG: 36.0 FPPG: 20.1
Pitcher Rating: 89.5 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 97.3 3.27 1.33 27.1% 5.2% 11.8% 44.6% 36.9% 35.4%
2016 28 96.7 3.71 2.06 23.1% 6.2% 10.2% 48.3% 31.8% 25.5%
2015 32 87.3 3.37 3.95 22.6% 5.8% 8.1% 51.3% 26.9% 25.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.29 — K%: 24.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.251
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.73 — K%: 20.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.297

Hendricks has been outstanding all season, boasting a 2.06 ERA (3.71 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 23.1% and a walk rate of 6.2%. He may not be in line to throw 110 pitches, but his inability to pitch deep into games is often exaggerated. He has pitched at least six innings in each of his last nine starts. I have mixed feelings about his matchup tonight against the Pirates. While their numbers against right-handed pitching are mediocre at best, they do have the sixth highest team wOBA over the last month of play. Hendricks is certainly in play, but his price seems a bit high in this matchup.

Chad Kuhl
chad-kuhl-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,300
FPPG: 23.5 FPPG: 11.8
Pitcher Rating: 63.1 Pitcher Rank: 10
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 78.0 3.85 4.26 22.5% 7.5% 9.6% 52.8% 30.2% 35.2%
2016 12 81.4 4.46 3.73 17.5% 6.6% 8.6% 46.3% 35.1% 31.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.91 — K%: 12.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.391
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.61 — K%: 20.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.256

Kuhl has been up and down in his first 12 major league starts. He currently owns a 4.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.5%. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog at home against the Cubs, who are ranked ninth in team wOBA and 13th in team ISO against right-handed pitching. When it comes to value, we don’t have a lot of choices at pitcher tonight. Kuhl is worth a look in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs may be favored tonight, but they come into the game with the seventh lowest implied team total in the slate. They see a negative ballpark shift playing in PNC Park and they draw a mediocre matchup against Chad Kuhl. If you are targeting any hitters here, give an edge to those that can hit from the left side of the plate. Kuhl has allowed a .347 wOBA and a 36.5% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.358 0.169 28.4% 0.470 OF $4,000 OF $5,400
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.387 0.249 40.6% 0.318 3B $4,100 3B/OF $4,700
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.408 0.277 38.6% 0.382 1B $4,400 1B $5,400
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.349 0.162 32.7% 0.355 2B $3,000 2B $4,400
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.311 0.159 29.2% 0.304 SS $2,200 SS $3,700
6 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.281 0.096 26.6% 0.365 OF $2,900 OF $3,400
7 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.326 0.200 30.6% 0.314 OF $2,300 OF $3,900
8 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.348 0.208 35.0% 0.480 C $3,100 C/OF $3,700
9 Kyle Hendricks RIGHT 0.150 0.000 4.4% 0.351 P $10,100 P $12,000
Team Averages — 0.324 0.169 29.6% 0.371 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have the lowest run projection of the 20 teams in action tonight. They draw a difficult matchup against Kyle Hendricks, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 wOBA this season. The Pirates’ offense has been red-hot over the last month of play, but they can be avoided tonight at home against Hendricks.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.331 0.144 35.2% 0.283 SS $2,100 2B/OF $2,600
2 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.377 0.181 39.8% 0.327 1B $3,200 1B/OF $2,200
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.335 0.177 36.9% 0.458 OF $3,100 OF $4,200
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.334 0.207 36.7% 0.245 OF $3,200 OF $3,900
5 Jung-Ho Kang RIGHT 0.388 0.276 39.8% 0.406 3B $3,700 3B $3,900
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.302 0.063 24.1% 0.341 C $3,000 C $2,600
7 Sean Rodriguez RIGHT 0.347 0.259 41.4% 0.445 OF $3,300 2B/SS $3,400
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.292 0.106 25.1% 0.239 SS $2,100 SS $2,500
9 Chad Kuhl RIGHT 0.043 0.000 0.0% 0.138 P $7,200 P $6,300
Team Averages — 0.305 0.157 31.0% 0.320 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

NY Yankees Toronto
nyyankeesmlb Luis Severino torontomlb J.A. Happ
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -185 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.318 4 25.0% 21.3% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.278 3 37.1% 20.0%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.362 6 34.3% 22.1% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.298 19 31.3% 22.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Severino
luis-severino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $5,200
FPPG: 14.8 FPPG: 7.2
Pitcher Rating: 62.2 Pitcher Rank: 11
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 0 0.0 3.91 0.60 26.3% 12.3% 11.9% 39.4% 45.5% 28.6%
2016 9 129.9 3.86 5.70 21.7% 7.3% 9.2% 46.7% 29.6% 29.7%
2015 11 93.2 3.84 2.89 22.0% 8.6% 9.6% 50.3% 29.7% 26.3%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.79 — K%: 22.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.346
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.92 — K%: 20.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.306

Severino will be on the mound for the Yankees tonight. His numbers as a whole aren’t bad, but most of them were accumulated as a reliever. He hasn’t made a start in over a month and he likely won’t see a full complement of pitches tonight. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Blue Jays, who are ranked seventh in team wOBA and sixth in team ISO against right-handed pitching. As one of the biggest underdogs in the slate, we can avoid Severino in all league formats.

J.A. Happ
j.a.-happ-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $10,100
FPPG: 35.5 FPPG: 18.2
Pitcher Rating: 69.6 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 94.6 4.60 3.81 18.4% 7.9% 9.5% 37.8% 35.4% 34.9%
2016 30 94.5 4.11 3.28 21.7% 7.3% 10.1% 42.1% 35.2% 32.5%
2015 31 91.6 3.82 3.61 21.1% 6.3% 8.1% 41.6% 34.1% 31.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.81 — K%: 22.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.291
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.99 — K%: 20.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.306

Happ has pitched well at home in the last two seasons, posting a 2.81 ERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a wOBA allowed of .291. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Yankees, who are ranked 24th in team wOBA and 26th in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. If you look at the Yankees’ projected lineup below, they only have three hitters with at least a .305 wOBA against southpaws this season.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees may be playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but this is a tough spot for their offense. They come into the game with the fourth lowest team total on the board. They have struggled against left-handed pitching as a whole and they draw a difficult matchup against J.A. Happ, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. Gary the GOAT Sanchez is always in play, but the rest of the Yankees can be avoided.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.284 0.085 24.1% 0.284 OF $3,000 OF $3,000
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.256 0.077 25.9% 0.169 OF $3,000 OF $3,000
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.361 0.370 46.7% 0.443 C $4,100 C $4,600
4 Billy Butler RIGHT 0.326 0.136 29.1% 0.428 1B $2,400 1B $2,700
5 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.305 0.114 31.8% 0.246 1B $2,500 1B $2,800
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.352 0.138 22.3% 0.322 SS $2,700 SS $2,800
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.299 0.081 28.1% 0.290 3B $2,600 3B $2,500
8 Mason Williams LEFT 0.303 0.143 25.0% 0.362 OF $2,200
9 Donovan Solano RIGHT 0.265 0.125 12.5% 0.317 3B $2,100 3B/SS $2,200
Team Averages — 0.306 0.141 27.3% 0.318 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and they come into tonight’s game with one of the highest run projections in the slate. They have a knack of letting us down in good spots, but a matchup against Luis Severino at home is hard to pass up. He is a reverse-splits pitcher that has allowed a .362 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.365 0.173 30.5% 0.313 2B $3,700 2B $4,000
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.401 0.273 41.3% 0.406 3B $4,500 3B $5,300
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.379 0.276 38.6% 0.422 1B $4,200 1B $4,800
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.358 0.215 41.1% 0.407 OF $4,000 OF $4,700
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.333 0.186 31.4% 0.333 C $3,000 C $3,900
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.324 0.199 34.7% 0.269 SS $3,200 SS $3,800
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.339 0.211 38.7% 0.234 OF $2,600 OF $3,500
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.293 0.109 26.4% 0.288 OF $2,800 OF $3,400
9 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.324 0.196 44.1% 0.421 1B $2,400 1B $3,700
Team Averages — 0.346 0.204 36.3% 0.344 — — — —

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – GREEN

Cleveland at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Cleveland Detroit
clevelandmlb Corey Kluber detroitmlb Buck Farmer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -160 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.282 9 28.8% 23.6% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.388 3 28.6% 19.6%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.263 12 27.0% 29.4% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.268 0 16.1% 26.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Corey Kluber
corey-kluber-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $11,000 Salary: $13,500
FPPG: 41.7 FPPG: 23.4
Pitcher Rating: 90.1 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 108.5 3.23 3.05 31.4% 8.3% 14.1% 36.4% 44.4% 32.3%
2016 31 100.9 3.47 3.11 26.6% 6.7% 12.7% 44.6% 36.0% 27.9%
2015 32 102.3 2.98 3.49 27.7% 5.1% 12.9% 42.4% 35.9% 27.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.04 — K%: 26.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.284
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.59 — K%: 28.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.270

Kluber has been his usual dominant self over the last month of play, posting a 3.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.4%. He grades out as the top pitching option in the slate, but the matchup is far from ideal. The good news is that the Tigers have a right-handed heavy lineup. The bad news is that they are ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. While Kluber is a good bet to post the most fantasy points of any pitcher tonight, he isn’t the best play in a points-per-dollar sense.

Buck Farmer
george-farmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,200 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 8.8 FPPG: 4.6
Pitcher Rating: 41.2 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 0 0.0 4.72 4.32 25.0% 17.5% 15.0% 52.2% 30.4% 21.7%
2016 0 0.0 4.55 4.07 23.2% 14.8% 11.4% 50.0% 36.4% 22.7%
2015 5 89.4 5.06 7.36 12.9% 9.1% 7.6% 45.3% 40.1% 33.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.86 — K%: 25.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.350
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 6.56 — K%: 13.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.397

Farmer is making his first start of the season and his sixth in the last two years. He owns a career 6.81 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.7%. To make matters worse, he has to face an Indians’ offense that is ranked sixth in team wOBA and seventh in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. As a large underdog at home, Farmer can be avoided in both cash games and GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians are ranked inside the top ten in every offensive category listed below. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Buck Farmer, who has allowed a .438 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .353 wOBA to right-handed hitters in his career. An Indians’ stack is viable in all league formats.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.384 0.284 38.7% 0.501 1B $3,900 1B $5,100
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.350 0.196 38.4% 0.315 2B $3,800 2B $5,200
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.350 0.138 26.5% 0.164 SS $3,400 SS $4,200
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.345 0.249 35.3% 0.288 1B $3,400 1B $4,300
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.356 0.150 25.5% 0.433 3B $3,900 3B/OF $4,800
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.341 0.157 28.4% 0.252 OF $3,000 OF $3,800
7 Coco Crisp SWITCH 0.307 0.171 24.7% 0.353 OF $2,600 OF $3,800
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.379 0.236 40.7% 0.317 OF $2,700 OF $4,000
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.235 0.094 26.0% 0.219 C $2,500 C $2,500
Team Averages — 0.339 0.186 31.6% 0.316 — — — —

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers are basically in must win mode for the next week. They are a game and a half behind the Orioles for the second and final wildcard spot in the American League. While I generally like to target teams that still have something to play for, using hitters against Corey Kluber isn’t a winning proposition. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.339 0.183 34.4% 0.385 2B $3,500 2B $3,500
2 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.357 0.094 23.8% 0.404 OF $3,400 OF $3,100
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.391 0.243 40.1% 0.368 1B $3,700 1B $3,800
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.352 0.196 40.8% 0.376 C $3,200 1B $2,700
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.396 0.238 38.0% 0.256 OF $3,000 OF $3,400
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.316 0.203 38.1% 0.440 OF $3,100 OF $2,900
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.222 0.067 27.2% 0.211 C $2,300 C $2,200
8 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.282 0.086 22.5% 0.308 SS $2,400 SS $2,200
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.263 0.051 12.4% 0.314 SS $2,200 SS $2,000
Team Averages — 0.324 0.151 30.8% 0.340 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – RED

NY Mets at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

NY Mets Miami
nymetsmlb Bartolo Colon miamimlb Adam Conley
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM -111 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.321 16 36.9% 15.3% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.338 0 23.3% 13.0%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.287 6 32.5% 16.9% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.318 13 35.0% 24.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Bartolo Colon
bartolo-colon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,900
FPPG: 28.0 FPPG: 14.2
Pitcher Rating: 56.9 Pitcher Rank: 12
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 94.8 4.44 2.27 16.1% 3.9% 6.5% 41.0% 37.7% 29.3%
2016 31 88.5 4.39 3.12 16.1% 4.2% 5.5% 43.4% 33.9% 34.7%
2015 31 87.3 4.02 4.16 16.7% 2.9% 6.4% 42.3% 36.9% 29.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.45 — K%: 19.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.296
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.86 — K%: 13.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.324

Colon continues to amaze with his 3.12 ERA on the season. While he has been incredible effective, he doesn’t fit the mold of the type of pitcher that we are looking to target in DFS. He doesn’t strikeout enough hitters to warrant the play. Colon is never a terrible fantasy option, but I will continue to avoid him in all league formats.

Adam Conley
adam-conley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $5,500
FPPG: 28.4 FPPG: 14.1
Pitcher Rating: 64.4 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
2016 24 92.9 4.63 3.94 21.3% 10.7% 9.7% 37.7% 41.3% 31.8%
2015 11 100.2 3.98 3.76 21.0% 7.5% 10.1% 40.6% 40.6% 21.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.36 — K%: 21.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.300
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.34 — K%: 20.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.337

Conley has pitched well at home in the last two seasons, boasting a 3.36 ERA with a strikeout rate of 21.6%. This would typically be a sneaky spot to target him, but he is facing a Mets’ team that has a lot more to play for than the Marlins. This isn’t a great matchup on paper anyway, as the Mets are ranked 14th in team wOBA and fifth in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets come into tonight’s game with the tenth highest implied team total in the slate. They draw a mediocre matchup against Adam Conley, who has allowed a .338 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .318 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. As I mentioned above, we’ve reached the point of the season where it makes sense to target the teams that still have something to play for.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.480 0.362 42.5% 0.315 3B $2,900 3B/SS $4,100
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.349 0.144 40.2% 0.446 SS $3,400 SS $4,400
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.455 0.293 49.2% 0.309 OF $3,900 OF $4,500
4 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.236 0.000 30.0% 0.430 2B $2,900 2B/3B $2,700
5 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.310 0.207 34.7% 0.337 OF $3,700 OF $4,300
6 Kelly Johnson LEFT 0.302 0.189 27.9% 0.151 3B $2,200 2B/3B $2,800
7 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.398 0.212 43.5% 0.230 C $2,200 C $2,200
8 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.142 0.021 23.5% 0.436 OF $2,600 OF $3,600
9 Bartolo Colon RIGHT 0.148 0.056 14.3% 0.000 P $7,800 P $7,900
Team Averages — 0.313 0.165 34.0% 0.295 — — — —

Elite Plays – Jose Reyes

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, T.J. Rivera

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins are small underdogs tonight against Bartolo Colon and the Mets. Even though this isn’t an elite matchup, Colon has allowed a .321 wOBA and a 36.9% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters this season. A left-handed stack could be sneaky in tournaments.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.279 0.069 18.0% 0.305 2B $2,700 2B $4,500
2 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.317 0.159 33.4% 0.312 OF $3,000 OF $3,400
3 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.376 0.162 29.6% 0.641 1B $3,000 2B $3,400
4 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.385 0.217 42.0% 0.306 OF $3,400 OF $4,100
5 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.335 0.242 38.8% 0.333 OF $3,800 OF $4,400
6 Justin Bour LEFT 0.339 0.230 36.9% 0.153 1B $2,800 1B $2,700
7 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.354 0.126 30.6% 0.295 C $2,600 C $3,900
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.259 0.071 31.0% 0.205 SS $2,200 SS $2,200
9 Adam Conley LEFT 0.124 0.000 5.0% P $7,100 P $5,500
Team Averages — 0.308 0.142 29.5% 0.319 — — — —

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Derek Dietrich, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious