MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 4th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Implied Run Totals
Ballpark Ratings
Cincinnati at Washington – 1:05 PM ET
Cincinnati | Washington | ||||||||||||||
Anthony DeSclafani | Gio Gonzalez | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
WAS-170 | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.410 | 0.416 | 48.2% | 3.86 | 18.0% | 31.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.233 | 0.245 | 24.1% | 0.37 | 30.4% | 46.6% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.307 | 0.272 | 48.7% | 1.33 | 24.6% | 46.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.335 | 0.339 | 31.7% | 0.90 | 18.5% | 50.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Anthony DeSclafani | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $12,700 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 25 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 30 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 10 | 4.24 | 5.47 | 21.3% | 7.6% | 38.7% | 48.4% | 13.8% | 93.1 | 8.4% | |
L14 | 2 | 3.31 | 6.23 | 32.5% | 10.0% | 36.4% | 56.5% | 26.1% | 93.0 | 12.6% |
This is the game that got rained out for no apparent reason last night. I’ll repost Noto’s thoughts on it: We kick off today’s Grind Down with the Reds and Nationals in what could be a lopsided game. Desclafani isn’t as bad as his 5.47 ERA would lead you to believe, but his troubles against left-handed hitters will be magnified in this matchup. Washington has six five lefties in their lineup with at least a .380 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: We start today’s slate off with an easy fade of Desclafani.
Gio Gonzalez | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $14,100 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 30 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 32 | 4.41 | 2.96 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 45.8% | 29.3% | 21.7% | 89.9 | 8.8% | |
2018 | 21 | 4.63 | 3.78 | 20.7% | 11.5% | 50.2% | 30.4% | 17.6% | 89.6 | 9.3% | |
L14 | 2 | 5.93 | 4.26 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 51.4% | 33.3% | 13.9% | 90.2 | 7.2% |
Gonzalez has been a routine fade of mine this season. I’ve learned my lesson over the years. It’s not that he doesn’t have a decent skill set (21% strikeout rate with a 50% ground ball rate), it’s that he tries to nibble around the corners of the plate too often. This leads to long at-bats and a high walk rate (12%). He has only pitched more than six innings one time in his last nine starts. At this price point, six innings should be enough to reach value, but that’s assuming he pitches well against a Reds’ offense that hits left-handed pitching well and strikes out at a low rate.
Quick Breakdown: Don’t fall for the cheap salary trap. Join me in my continuous fade of Gio.
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
The Reds are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark against what I would call a slightly above-average pitcher. While I won’t have any shares of Gio Gonzalez, I’m not going to stack the Reds against him in a 14-game slate. However, despite a 51% ground ball rate against right-handed hitters this season, he has allowed a .339 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate. Eugenio Suarez has been one of the best hitters in baseball against southpaws this season, boasting a .488 xwOBA, a .337 ISO, and a 56% hard contact rate. Even at his hefty price point, he’s on my radar as a one-off for tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jose Peraza | RIGHT | 0.279 | 0.077 | 24.1% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 40.7% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,900 | SS | $7,300 |
2 | Scooter Gennett | LEFT | 0.314 | 0.183 | 44.9% | 4.1% | 23.6% | 36.8% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,700 | 2B | $9,400 |
3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.375 | 0.103 | 41.1% | 15.0% | 20.3% | 42.1% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $4,500 | 1B | $9,000 |
4 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.488 | 0.337 | 56.3% | 15.9% | 16.8% | 38.0% | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $5,000 | 3B | $9,600 |
5 | Mason Williams | LEFT | 0.021 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,400 |
6 | Preston Tucker | LEFT | 0.260 | 0.143 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 13.3% | 50.0% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,900 | LF | $7,500 |
7 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.329 | 0.143 | 39.1% | 12.2% | 24.3% | 55.6% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,800 | C | $7,700 |
8 | Matt Harvey | RIGHT | 0.094 | 0.000 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 75.0% | 100.0% | P | $6,000 | P | $6,100 | P | $11,900 |
9 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.254 | 0.112 | 27.6% | 8.2% | 32.0% | 26.8% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,600 | CF | $7,200 |
Team Averages | 0.268 | 0.122 | 39.8% | 6.5% | 23.4% | 43.3% |
Elite Plays – Eugenio Suarez (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Eugenio Suarez (Cash)
Stackability – ORANGE
Washington
The Nationals looked like they would be the highest scoring stack early last night, but then were trounced by the Rangers and Dodgers. I may end up going right back to the well tonight, as they have the perfect lineup construction to take advantage of Anthony Desclafani struggles against left-handed hitters. On the season, he has allowed a .416 xwOBA, a 48% hard contact rate, and a massive 3.86 home runs per nine innings to batters from the left side of the plate. Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Matt Adams, and Daniel Murphy are all viable in this matchup. Trea Turner shouldn’t be left out of your Nationals’ stacks, as he has been swinging a hot bat and has as much stolen base upside as any player in the slate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Adam Eaton | LEFT | 0.400 | 0.119 | 43.9% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 45.1% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,500 | CF | $8,900 |
2 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.323 | 0.146 | 32.4% | 8.1% | 21.3% | 51.5% | SS | $4,400 | SS | $5,500 | IF/OF | $10,100 |
3 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.386 | 0.206 | 37.1% | 9.4% | 14.7% | 36.3% | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $8,300 |
4 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.390 | 0.272 | 42.7% | 18.7% | 26.6% | 36.5% | OF | $4,600 | OF | $5,500 | RF | $10,000 |
5 | Juan Soto | LEFT | 0.382 | 0.236 | 35.4% | 16.1% | 17.7% | 49.6% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,100 | LF | $9,800 |
6 | Matt Adams | LEFT | 0.400 | 0.295 | 39.2% | 9.7% | 19.4% | 31.5% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B/OF | $4,200 | 1B | $8,400 |
7 | Daniel Murphy | LEFT | 0.388 | 0.177 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 28.7% | 2B | $3,500 | 1B/2B | $4,400 | 2B | $8,000 |
8 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.278 | 0.101 | 28.0% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 40.5% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,100 | C | $5,800 |
9 | Jeremy Hellickson | RIGHT | 0.099 | 0.000 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 41.2% | 75.0% | P | $6,400 | P | $5,700 | P | $11,300 |
Team Averages | 0.338 | 0.172 | 32.0% | 10.1% | 19.9% | 43.9% |
Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto
Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Matt Adams, Daniel Murphy
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
San Diego at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET
San Diego | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||||||||
Walker Lockett | Kyle Hendricks | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
CHC-190 | |||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.349 | 0.328 | 46.2% | 0.00 | 10.0% | 76.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.295 | 0.326 | 30.4% | 1.55 | 22.7% | 43.9% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.458 | 0.435 | 71.4% | 0.00 | 20.0% | 42.9% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.321 | 0.337 | 31.6% | 1.17 | 17.1% | 48.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Walker Lockett | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,000 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 30 of 30 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 1 | 6.05 | 9.53 | 13.3% | 20.0% | 65.0% | 55.0% | 20.0% | 91.9 | 9.2% | |
Walker “Texas Ranger” Lockett has pitched in two games for the Padres this season, including one start. His lone start of the season came back on June 1 against the Reds and it didn’t go all that well. The right-hander conceded 4 runs on 4 hits with 5 walks in 3.2 innings against the Reds. He isn’t one of the better prospects in the decorated San Diego system, and his minor league numbers suggest he depends more on inducing ground balls than getting strikeouts. Today’s matchup on the road against the Cubs is suboptimal to begin with, which makes Lockett and his lack of strikeout upside an easy fade.
Quick Breakdown: Lockett is a fade today despite the cheap price tag.
Kyle Hendricks | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 24 | 4.08 | 3.03 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 50.1% | 30.4% | 22.5% | 85.8 | 8.3% | |
2018 | 22 | 4.16 | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 46.6% | 31.1% | 22.3% | 86.8 | 8.8% | |
L14 | 3 | 3.01 | 4.32 | 27.4% | 4.1% | 46.9% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 87.0 | 8.3% |
Kyle Hendricks has been pretty mediocre this season. The right-hander has an uninspiring strikeout rate of 19.5%. He has also induced ground balls at a 46.6% clip and his 4.17 SIERA is a bit worse than his 3.97 ERA. Hendricks has been decent enough in terms of limiting hard contact, but he’s never a guy that you really love to roster when it comes to DFS due to the limited upside. Frankly, the only reason you’re really interested in Hendricks today is because it’s a short slate and he happens to be facing the Padres. The weather in Chicago looks pretty good for hitting, but I still think Hendricks is playable if you’re talking about the short early slate.
Quick Breakdown: Hendricks isn’t a great fantasy option in general, but he’s a fine enough play this afternoon against a weak Padres lineup.
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
Hendricks has been quite a bit tougher on righties over the course of his career. The numbers may not bear that out this season, but the right-hander has induced grounders at a 52% clip against RHBs compared to a 45.3% mark against LHBs in his career. The Padres’ lineup profiles quite a bit worse against right-handers than they do left-handers, as well. That said, the weather in Chicago looks pretty favorable to bats this afternoon. I think the Padres are an interesting stack in tournaments while I’d prioritize the Cubs’ side of this game in cash games. Eric Hosmer, Hunter Renfroe, Travis Jankowski and Austin Hedges are in play, with Hosmer the primary target from the left side against Hendricks. Keep an eye on the status of Wil Myers, who left yesterday’s game with a foot injury.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Travis Jankowski | LEFT | 0.291 | 0.076 | 24.6% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 60.6% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Manuel Margot | RIGHT | 0.296 | 0.116 | 35.5% | 8.8% | 16.3% | 47.3% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Eric Hosmer | LEFT | 0.318 | 0.149 | 38.2% | 9.6% | 23.8% | 60.4% | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Hunter Renfroe | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.181 | 46.5% | 5.9% | 30.1% | 41.9% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Austin Hedges | RIGHT | 0.286 | 0.157 | 32.1% | 6.5% | 27.4% | 38.8% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Freddy Galvis | SWITCH | 0.295 | 0.088 | 40.8% | 8.5% | 24.4% | 43.4% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,100 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Christian Villanueva | RIGHT | 0.275 | 0.138 | 30.1% | 5.3% | 25.1% | 33.3% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Carlos Asuaje | LEFT | 0.331 | 0.117 | 38.6% | 10.8% | 20.3% | 32.7% | 2B | $2,000 | 2B | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Walker Lockett | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | P | $5,500 | P | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.265 | 0.114 | 31.8% | 7.4% | 31.1% | 39.8% |
Elite Plays – Eric Hosmer
Secondary Plays – Travis Jankowski, Hunter Renfroe, Christian Villanueva, Wil Myers (if back in the lineup)
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are facing a middling right-hander in Walker Lockett today at a hot, windy Wrigley Field. The lefties are the preferred options against Lockett, which makes Anthony Rizzo arguably the top play at any position on the early slate. Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist are other viable lefties, with Schwarber being the lone elite option of the bunch. Javier Baez and Willson Contreras are the best options at their respective positions, while David Bote serves as a solid way to get cheap exposure to this lineup. If you’re playing the early slate, you’re going to want as many Cubs bats as you can find.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Anthony Rizzo | LEFT | 0.404 | 0.207 | 35.8% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 37.4% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Ben Zobrist | SWITCH | 0.367 | 0.163 | 34.3% | 14.8% | 12.7% | 45.0% | 2B | $3,100 | 2B/OF | $4,800 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Jason Heyward | LEFT | 0.355 | 0.152 | 32.3% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 43.2% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Javier Baez | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.276 | 39.9% | 2.9% | 27.1% | 43.8% | 2B | $4,000 | 2B/SS | $5,600 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Ian Happ | SWITCH | 0.369 | 0.209 | 45.0% | 18.7% | 33.9% | 35.8% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Kyle Schwarber | LEFT | 0.380 | 0.276 | 43.0% | 15.9% | 26.0% | 41.4% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Willson Contreras | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.150 | 30.8% | 7.5% | 19.6% | 50.5% | C | $3,200 | C | $4,300 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Kyle Hendricks | RIGHT | 0.115 | 0.031 | 12.5% | 2.9% | 50.0% | 60.0% | P | $8,000 | P | $8,100 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Addison Russell | RIGHT | 0.295 | 0.095 | 32.1% | 8.9% | 22.5% | 41.8% | SS | $2,600 | SS | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.327 | 0.173 | 34.0% | 10.3% | 23.6% | 44.3% |
Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber
Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Jason Heyward, David Bote, Ben Zobrist
Stackability – GREEN
NY Yankees at Boston – 4:05 PM ET
NY Yankees | Boston | ||||||||||||||
Luis Cessa | Nathan Eovaldi | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
BOS-150 | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.266 | 0.288 | 29.4% | 1.17 | 33.3% | 56.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.308 | 0.331 | 36.8% | 1.21 | 21.7% | 50.0% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.268 | 0.358 | 25.0% | 0.71 | 11.8% | 43.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.244 | 0.272 | 30.9% | 1.83 | 25.0% | 43.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
NOTE: Chance Adams will start Saturday for the Yankees.
Luis Cessa | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 5 | 4.88 | 4.75 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 45.5% | 29.1% | 21.8% | 95.6 | 10.3% | |
2018 | 3 | 4.45 | 3.10 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 47.3% | 26.3% | 21.1% | 94.8 | 10.7% | |
L14 | 1 | 4.37 | 3.38 | 15.0% | 0.0% | 35.3% | 23.5% | 29.4% | 93.9 | 10.8% |
Chance Adams will be making his major league debut on Saturday in Boston. Other than starting your career at Coors Field, it’s hard to imagine a worse place to get your big league career started than at Fenway against the Red Sox. The 23-year-old has shown solid strikeout stuff over the course of his minor league career, and this season he has a 4.50 ERA with an xFIP of 3.99 at Triple-A. He has also allowed 11 home runs across 21 starts and has a high walk rate over 11%. Adams may be a name to watch in the future, but playing a pitcher making his debut against this Red Sox lineup feels like a disaster waiting to happen.
Quick Breakdown: Playing Adams today is a Chance I won’t be taking.
Nathan Eovaldi | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 15 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 30 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 11 | 3.48 | 3.80 | 23.4% | 3.2% | 46.7% | 33.7% | 20.4% | 97.0 | 10.8% | |
L14 | 2 | 2.95 | 0.69 | 27.1% | 0.0% | 37.1% | 28.6% | 11.4% | 97.5 | 11.7% |
Eovaldi was very solid in his Red Sox debut last weekend, holding the Twins scoreless on 4 hits with 5 punchouts in 7 strong innings of work. The former Yankee has enjoyed an excellent season so far, as evidenced by his 23.4% K-rate and low walk rate a shade over 3%. His 3.48 SIERA also shows that his 3.80 ERA is actually a tad unlucky. A problem here is that the right-hander has allowed 11 homers in his 11 starts, and he’s facing a tough Yankees offense getting a park upgrade today. New York isn’t at full strength without Aaron Hicks and Gary Sanchez, though, and this is still a lineup that has whiffed 23% of the time this season against right-handed pitching. The matchup is tough, but Eovaldi is right there with Kyle Hendricks as the best pitching options on the tiny early slate.
Quick Breakdown: Eovaldi is fine for the early slate, but he wouldn’t be on my radar in an all-day format.
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Picking on Nathan Eovaldi isn’t something I typically want to do, but you can pick your spots with some Yankees today. The right-hander has allowed a .341 career wOBA to lefties, which makes Didi Gregorius one of the better options from the Yankees side of things. Aaron Hicks and Greg Bird are viable, while Brett Gardner is a secondary play. Giancarlo Stanton has looked lost for much of the season, but he’s always in play given his massive power potential. Gleyber Torres is the only other right-handed option I’d play, but he’s less of a priority in this spot. The Yankees could be somewhat sneaky here, so I like the stack for GPPs.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.303 | 0.151 | 27.4% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 51.8% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,300 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.181 | 35.3% | 7.4% | 32.1% | 51.0% | OF | $4,400 | OF | $4,700 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.348 | 0.244 | 38.0% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 34.0% | SS | $3,900 | SS | $4,900 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Aaron Hicks | SWITCH | 0.360 | 0.194 | 38.3% | 14.8% | 19.5% | 43.9% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,700 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Gleyber Torres | RIGHT | 0.378 | 0.221 | 40.0% | 6.3% | 25.9% | 31.5% | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Greg Bird | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.229 | 44.6% | 8.2% | 26.4% | 33.3% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Miguel Andujar | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.181 | 37.9% | 3.7% | 17.0% | 49.1% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Austin Romine | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.216 | 36.6% | 9.4% | 19.7% | 42.5% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,200 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Neil Walker | SWITCH | 0.350 | 0.094 | 37.9% | 10.6% | 21.2% | 38.4% | 2B | $2,500 | 1B/2B | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.343 | 0.190 | 37.3% | 9.1% | 21.0% | 41.7% |
Elite Plays – Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Greg Bird
Secondary Plays – Gleyber Torres, Brett Gardner
Stackability – YELLOW
Boston
Chance Adams is a fine prospect, but the Red Sox have been the best lineup in baseball this season against right-handed pitching. Boston is first in wOBA, wRC+ and home runs against RHPs on the season. Anytime they’re at home they’re typically one of the top stacking options, and today is no exception. The righties won’t hold the platoon edge here, but I still think J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts are some bats worth paying for. Xander Bogaerts is a fine option if he returns to the starting lineup, but Didi Gregorius and Javier Baez are better options at his position on the early docket. Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland are your top plays from the left side, while Blake Swihart and Eduardo Nunez are solid sources of salary relief.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.467 | 0.280 | 45.8% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 33.3% | OF | $4,800 | OF | $6,100 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.407 | 0.211 | 30.0% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 36.8% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,700 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Steve Pearce | RIGHT | 0.433 | 0.145 | 43.1% | 9.9% | 16.9% | 41.2% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B/OF | $4,300 | N/A | N/A |
4 | J.D. Martinez | RIGHT | 0.462 | 0.354 | 48.0% | 10.3% | 22.4% | 45.3% | OF | $4,900 | OF | $5,700 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.380 | 0.262 | 38.4% | 5.6% | 17.9% | 47.5% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,500 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Eduardo Nunez | RIGHT | 0.268 | 0.124 | 25.6% | 2.7% | 15.7% | 49.8% | 3B | $2,600 | 2B/3B | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Brock Holt | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.106 | 29.4% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 53.8% | 2B | $2,200 | 2B/SS | $3,700 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.270 | 0.117 | 31.2% | 3.6% | 26.3% | 43.8% | C | $2,000 | C | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Jackie Bradley | LEFT | 0.378 | 0.174 | 40.3% | 9.7% | 23.1% | 40.0% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.377 | 0.197 | 36.9% | 8.3% | 18.3% | 43.5% |
Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland
Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Eduardo Nunez, Blake Swihart
Stackability – GREEN
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay – 6:10 PM ET
Chicago White Sox | Tampa Bay | ||||||||||||||
Carlos Rodon | Blake Snell | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
TB -170 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.293 | 0.359 | 38.7% | 1.74 | 20.0% | 48.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.181 | 0.264 | 35.8% | 0.30 | 31.2% | 51.5% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.268 | 0.298 | 23.3% | 1.13 | 20.7% | 39.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.290 | 0.305 | 32.9% | 1.12 | 27.4% | 41.1% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Carlos Rodon | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $8,500 | Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 30 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 12 | 4.21 | 4.15 | 25.6% | 10.4% | 44.1% | 32.1% | 12.8% | 93.1 | 10.3% | |
2018 | 9 | 4.50 | 3.24 | 20.6% | 8.8% | 41.5% | 26.2% | 15.9% | 93.4 | 9.2% | |
L14 | 2 | 3.79 | 2.35 | 25.0% | 7.1% | 37.8% | 21.6% | 13.5% | 92.9 | 10.6% |
Carlos Rodon has quietly pitched well for the White Sox since returning from the DL in June. In 9 starts, the southpaw has a 3.24 ERA along with a strikeout rate of 20.6%. His 4.51 SIERA suggests his ERA should come up a bit, but we can also expect the K-rate to climb. Rodon has a career strikeout rate over 23%, so there are more whiffs in that arm than he’s shown so far. He has shown a fly ball lean this season, but he’s also impressively kept the hard contact against him down around 26%. Rodon gets a serious park upgrade going into the Trop to take on a Rays lineup that lost Tommy Pham to injury just a few days after getting him. Tampa also has the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: Rodon is in a solid spot for run prevention today in Tampa.
Blake Snell | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $10,000 | Salary: | $9,400 | Salary: | |||||||
Salary Rank: | 3 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | Salary Rank: | |||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 24 | 4.72 | 4.04 | 21.8% | 10.8% | 43.9% | 32.9% | 18.8% | 94.3 | 10.8% | |
2018 | 20 | 3.72 | 2.27 | 28.3% | 9.9% | 43.4% | 33.6% | 18.8% | 95.5 | 13.5% | |
Snell will come off the DL today to make his first start in nearly a month. The left-hander has been strong this season with a 28.3% strikeout rate, and he has been better about walks this season. The 9.9% BB-rate is still higher than we’d like to see, and his 3.73 SIERA suggests his 2.24 ERA is a bit lucky. Snell is coming off of a shoulder injury, and he didn’t make a rehab start in the minors prior to being activated. I would have plenty of interest in him today against a high-strikeout White Sox lineup under normal circumstances, but it’s fair to suggest that he’ll probably be limited in terms of his pitch count today. If Snell is going to top out around 70 pitches in his first start back, he’s not worth the salary. I’ll wait until he’s on a more normal pitch count.
Quick Breakdown: I’ll take a wait-and-see approach on Snell, who will likely be limited in his first start off the DL.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox bats take a sizable park hit going into Tampa and they’ll be facing a strong pitcher in Blake Snell. I’m a believer in Snell’s talent, while I’m the opposite when it comes to the White Sox. I think you can try some of their power right-handed bats in tournaments, but stacking an offense in this ballpark isn’t something I generally prioritize. Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson, Tim Anderson and Avisail Garcia are fine one-off tries in tournaments, but they don’t exactly come cheap. Avoiding the White Sox offense won’t kill you today.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tim Anderson | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.181 | 34.5% | 4.5% | 20.5% | 39.3% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Leury Garcia | SWITCH | 0.285 | 0.127 | 33.3% | 1.4% | 23.3% | 44.2% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Jose Abreu | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.224 | 38.7% | 7.4% | 25.3% | 48.4% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
4 | Avisail Garcia | RIGHT | 0.358 | 0.205 | 50.0% | 2.2% | 26.7% | 65.6% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Matt Davidson | RIGHT | 0.385 | 0.286 | 47.8% | 14.5% | 28.9% | 50.0% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B/3B | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Yoan Moncada | SWITCH | 0.234 | 0.096 | 34.4% | 10.3% | 32.7% | 54.1% | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Adam Engel | RIGHT | 0.243 | 0.099 | 23.4% | 3.5% | 22.1% | 41.7% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Yolmer Sanchez | SWITCH | 0.271 | 0.034 | 24.6% | 7.2% | 24.7% | 60.3% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Omar Narvaez | LEFT | 0.280 | 0.069 | 21.7% | 14.3% | 20.0% | 47.6% | C | $2,200 | C | $3,200 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.304 | 0.147 | 34.3% | 7.3% | 24.9% | 50.1% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia, Tim Anderson, Matt Davidson
Stackability – RED
Tampa Bay
I have more interest in Rays hitters than White Sox hitters, but that’s not saying a whole lot. Rodon is a southpaw with a wide platoon split, so I think you can take a few right-handed bats against him. C.J. Cron jumps to the top of the list, as he’s quietly enjoyed a pretty good season for the Rays. He’s your best bet to take Rodon deep today. Matt Duffy and Daniel Robertson are also solid salary savers at their respective positions. I think you can go that route as a 3-man mini-stack to differentiate your lineups in tournaments, but I’d limit them to one-offs in cash.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.239 | 0.200 | 17.2% | 10.0% | 32.0% | 48.3% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
2 | Matt Duffy | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.077 | 31.9% | 8.0% | 19.0% | 59.7% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,300 | N/A | N/A |
3 | Daniel Robertson | RIGHT | 0.387 | 0.187 | 33.9% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 50.0% | 2B | $2,800 | 2B/SS | $3,700 | LF | $3,900 |
4 | C.J. Cron | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.210 | 38.8% | 8.0% | 30.1% | 41.8% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
5 | Jake Bauers | LEFT | 0.290 | 0.250 | 46.7% | 9.1% | 22.7% | 50.0% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B/OF | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
6 | Carlos Gomez | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.157 | 30.5% | 5.3% | 25.3% | 27.1% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,200 | N/A | N/A |
7 | Michael Perez | LEFT | 0.401 | 0.333 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
8 | Willy Adames | RIGHT | 0.233 | 0.133 | 35.7% | 6.3% | 50.0% | 28.6% | SS | $2,500 | 2B/SS | $3,200 | N/A | N/A |
9 | Mallex Smith | LEFT | 0.286 | 0.075 | 26.2% | 3.4% | 22.4% | 55.3% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
Team Averages | 0.310 | 0.180 | 36.4% | 7.2% | 24.1% | 43.8% |
Elite Plays – C.J. Cron
Secondary Plays – Matt Duffy, Daniel Robertson
Stackability – ORANGE
Cincinnati at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
Cincinnati | Washington | ||||||||||||||
Matt Harvey | Jeremy Hellickson | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
WAS-170 | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.349 | 0.371 | 42.5% | 1.82 | 17.1% | 37.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.315 | 0.334 | 29.2% | 1.37 | 18.8% | 47.9% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.323 | 0.336 | 36.3% | 1.42 | 18.5% | 47.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.291 | 0.310 | 29.4% | 0.54 | 18.9% | 44.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Matt Harvey | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $11,900 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 26 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 18 | 5.44 | 6.70 | 15.6% | 10.9% | 43.0% | 32.5% | 24.1% | 93.8 | 7.5% | |
2018 | 18 | 4.45 | 5.13 | 17.8% | 6.1% | 42.4% | 39.4% | 16.6% | 93.8 | 8.8% | |
L14 | 2 | 4.88 | 10.38 | 18.4% | 5.3% | 29.6% | 48.3% | 20.7% | 94.6 | 11.9% |
The main slate gets underway with a game featuring Matt Harvey against the Nationals. Harvey is no stranger to the Nats after having spent years in the NL East with the Mets. While he’s been slightly better since becoming a Red, he’s still a low-strikeout (17.8% this season) right-hander taking on a lineup full of potent left-handed bats. Harvey has also allowed a hard-hit rate over 39% and 18 home runs across 22 outings. If Harvey isn’t the worst pitching option on the main slate, he’s pretty close.
Quick Breakdown: Don’t play Matt Harvey against the Nationals.
Jeremy Hellickson | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $11,300 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 24 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 20 of 30 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 30 | 5.37 | 5.43 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 34.9% | 32.0% | 19.9% | 90.2 | 8.3% | |
2018 | 15 | 4.02 | 3.59 | 18.9% | 4.4% | 46.1% | 29.3% | 20.3% | 89.7 | 9.0% | |
L14 | 2 | 4.41 | 5.59 | 15.2% | 2.2% | 45.7% | 30.6% | 22.2% | 90.3 | 8.8% |
Jeremy Hellickson is actually the cheaper starting pitcher in this game (on DraftKings, at least), which tells you all you need to know. The Nationals have been cautious about letting Hellboy face a lineup a third time through, so he rarely goes beyond 5 innings. He has been fine in terms of limiting hard contact, but you’re going to need some strikeouts if you’re going to roster a guy with an obvious limit. Hellickson isn’t your guy in that regard, as his 18.9% K-rate is only slightly better than Harvey’s. The Reds aren’t a bad offense to begin with, so there’s no real need to spend more time talking about Hellickson.
Quick Breakdown: Hellickson is an easy fade, as always.
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
Hellickson has allowed 8 home runs this season, 6 of which have come off the bats of left-handers. He has also allowed a .315 wOBA to LHBs compared to a .291 mark against RHBs. Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett instantly stand out as strong options at their respective positions in this matchup. Mason Williams is also a decent cheap bat that swings from the left side if you need some savings. I also like this as a sneaky spot for Eugenio Suarez, who figures to go under-owned thanks to his expensive price tag and the fact that people only seem to like playing him against lefties. The Reds aren’t the preferred offense in this game, but I do think it’s a solid spot for them overall.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jose Peraza | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.109 | 31.6% | 6.4% | 11.9% | 37.0% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,900 | SS | $7,300 |
2 | Scooter Gennett | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.193 | 38.7% | 8.1% | 17.3% | 38.1% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,700 | 2B | $9,400 |
3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.458 | 0.161 | 38.8% | 19.0% | 12.9% | 34.0% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $4,500 | 1B | $9,000 |
4 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.377 | 0.256 | 51.1% | 9.1% | 23.4% | 35.6% | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $5,000 | 3B | $9,600 |
5 | Mason Williams | LEFT | 0.400 | 0.273 | 45.5% | 0.0% | 15.4% | 55.6% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,400 |
6 | Preston Tucker | LEFT | 0.291 | 0.194 | 39.7% | 6.3% | 27.7% | 45.8% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,900 | LF | $7,500 |
7 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.339 | 0.112 | 40.1% | 10.5% | 16.8% | 41.3% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,800 | C | $7,700 |
8 | Matt Harvey | RIGHT | 0.172 | 0.000 | 17.4% | 5.9% | 26.5% | 58.8% | P | $6,000 | P | $6,100 | P | $11,900 |
9 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.247 | 0.071 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 24.1% | 45.3% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,600 | CF | $7,200 |
Team Averages | 0.327 | 0.152 | 35.9% | 8.4% | 19.6% | 43.5% |
Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett
Secondary Plays – Mason Williams, Tucker Barnhart, Preston Tucker
Stackability – YELLOW
Washington
You know by now that Matt Harvey is one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and the Nationals offense has been showing signs of coming to life lately. Harvey has allowed a .349 wOBA and 10 homers to lefties already this season, so Bryce Harper, Matt Adams, Adam Eaton, Juan Soto and Daniel Murphy all look like stellar plays against him. Don’t ignore the righties and their .323 mark with 8 dongs against the Dark Knight. That means Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner should be a part of your Washington stacks. Matt Wieters isn’t great, but he’s a cheap catcher with some pop. Load up on Nationals bats tonight.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Adam Eaton | LEFT | 0.400 | 0.119 | 43.9% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 45.1% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,500 | CF | $8,900 |
2 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.323 | 0.146 | 32.4% | 8.1% | 21.3% | 51.5% | SS | $4,400 | SS | $5,500 | IF/OF | $10,100 |
3 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.386 | 0.206 | 37.1% | 9.4% | 14.7% | 36.3% | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $8,300 |
4 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.390 | 0.272 | 42.7% | 18.7% | 26.6% | 36.5% | OF | $4,600 | OF | $5,500 | RF | $10,000 |
5 | Juan Soto | LEFT | 0.382 | 0.236 | 35.4% | 16.1% | 17.7% | 49.6% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,100 | LF | $9,800 |
6 | Matt Adams | LEFT | 0.400 | 0.295 | 39.2% | 9.7% | 19.4% | 31.5% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B/OF | $4,200 | 1B | $8,400 |
7 | Daniel Murphy | LEFT | 0.388 | 0.177 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 28.7% | 2B | $3,500 | 1B/2B | $4,400 | 2B | $8,000 |
8 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.278 | 0.101 | 28.0% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 40.5% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,100 | C | $5,800 |
9 | Jeremy Hellickson | RIGHT | 0.099 | 0.000 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 41.2% | 75.0% | P | $6,400 | P | $5,700 | P | $11,300 |
Team Averages | 0.338 | 0.172 | 32.0% | 10.1% | 19.9% | 43.9% |
Elite Plays – Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Matt Adams, Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy
Secondary Plays – Matt Wieters
Stackability – GREEN
Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET
Miami | Philadelphia | ||||||||||||||
Jose Urena | Zach Eflin | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
PHI-165 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | HR/9 | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.322 | 0.346 | 44.1% | 1.22 | 17.6% | 50.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.349 | 0.359 | 29.7% | 1.89 | 22.0% | 30.3% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.293 | 0.292 | 38.0% | 0.60 | 22.4% | 54.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.267 | 0.260 | 26.8% | 0.62 | 22.9% | 43.1% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jose Urena | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $12,600 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 21 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 30 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 28 | 5.19 | 3.82 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 43.1% | 31.8% | 18.4% | 95.5 | 8.2% | |
2018 | 21 | 4.06 | 4.40 | 20.0% | 6.9% | 52.0% | 41.3% | 14.6% | 95.7 | 8.6% | |
L14 | 2 | 5.16 | 4.50 | 20.9% | 14.0% | 38.5% | 38.5% | 7.7% | 95.9 | 7.3% |
Jose Urena is a guy I’ve played more times than I’d care to admit. He’s still cheap, as usual, but today he gets a pretty serious park downgrade going from Miami to Philadelphia. The right-hander has an average strikeout rate sitting right at 20% along with low walks. His 4.07 SIERA is a bit better than his 4.40 ERA, but the hard-hit rate over 41% is suboptimal. Urena also keeps the ball on the ground at a respectable 52% clip. He has allowed 12 homers in his 21 starts, and the home run risk is obviously elevated for him today at Citizens Bank Park. I don’t think Urena will be the death of you if you need a punt SP2 here today, but I don’t think that’s a necessary evil on this slate.
Quick Breakdown: Urena is a fine punt, but he’s far from a priority tonight.
Zach Eflin | |||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||||
Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $15,100 | ||||||
Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 30 | ||||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 11 | 5.08 | 6.16 | 12.5% | 4.3% | 44.1% | 33.3% | 16.7% | 92.7 | 7.3% | |
2018 | 14 | 3.92 | 3.64 | 22.5% | 5.6% | 37.4% | 28.1% | 21.5% | 94.3 | 10.3% | |
L14 | 2 | 5.72 | 7.88 | 12.2% | 9.8% | 38.7% | 40.6% | 12.5% | 94.4 | 7.7% |
Zach Eflin has regressed a bit following a gangbusters start to the year. I don’t know what gangbusters really means, but it sounds accurate in this context. Overall, the right-hander has a 22.5% strikeout rate alongside a palatable 3.93 SIERA. His fly ball lean has led to 10 homers allowed in 14 starts, but Eflin has also held the hard contact against him down around 28%. His strikeout upside today isn’t great against a Marlins team that doesn’t whiff all that much, but he comes with an affordable price tag and this is a pretty good spot in terms of run prevention. I think there are some better options in this price range, but I wouldn’t necessarily talk you out of Eflin if you wanted to go here.
Quick Breakdown: Eflin is a fine option, but I do think there are better plays in this price tier.
Batter Grind Down
Miami
Eflin has pitched better this season, but lefties have still given him trouble. Left-handed bats have a collective .349 wOBA against him and they have accounted for 7 of the 10 dongs he’s conceded. Justin Bour is an awesome play in all formats, especially considering he isn’t all that expensive. J.T. Realmuto is a decent catching option, but he’s too priced up to be a realistic option for cash games. Derek Dietrich is also a bit more expensive than I’d like, but he’s playable in GPPs as a lefty against Eflin. Stacking Miami is pretty unnecessary, so I’d stick with Marlins hitters as one-offs.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.121 | 38.0% | 5.6% | 18.9% | 47.8% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $7,200 |
2 | Brian Anderson | RIGHT | 0.357 | 0.126 | 37.9% | 6.8% | 17.8% | 51.4% | OF | $2,900 | 3B/OF | $4,100 | IF/OF | $8,300 |
3 | J.T. Realmuto | RIGHT | 0.387 | 0.244 | 40.7% | 5.4% | 16.6% | 42.3% | C | $3,400 | C | $4,900 | C | $8,700 |
4 | Justin Bour | LEFT | 0.366 | 0.216 | 41.7% | 16.5% | 26.3% | 39.5% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $7,400 |
5 | Martin Prado | RIGHT | 0.283 | 0.079 | 28.7% | 3.8% | 19.7% | 47.5% | 3B | $2,100 | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $5,700 |
6 | Derek Dietrich | LEFT | 0.343 | 0.157 | 36.5% | 7.0% | 23.2% | 39.9% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $4,000 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
7 | JT Riddle | LEFT | 0.307 | 0.161 | 33.6% | 4.8% | 21.9% | 48.6% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $5,500 |
8 | Magneuris Sierra | LEFT | 0.098 | 0.000 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 46.2% | 60.0% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,700 |
9 | Jose Urena | RIGHT | 0.089 | 0.059 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 64.7% | 80.0% | P | $6,900 | P | $6,300 | P | $12,600 |
Team Averages | 0.283 | 0.129 | 37.3% | 5.5% | 28.4% | 50.8% |
Elite Plays – Justin Bour
Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich, J.T. Realmuto
Stackability – ORANGE
Philadelphia
As is the case with Eflin, Urena has struggled once again with left-handed bats this season. LHBs have a .322 wOBA against him and they have hit 8 of the 12 homers against the right-hander. You can stack the Phils in tournaments, but I don’t necessarily think Urena is a gas can worth going all-in against. Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Nick Williams and Cesar Hernandez are all fine plays individually or as a part of said stack. Overall, there are other offenses in better spots I’d prefer to target on this slate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.319 | 0.127 | 23.5% | 14.0% | 22.2% | 43.3% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $7,500 |
2 | Rhys Hoskins | RIGHT | 0.380 | 0.280 | 36.9% | 11.7% | 26.4% | 28.3% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $5,300 | IF/OF | $9,400 |
3 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.308 | 0.202 | 26.5% | 7.6% | 21.1% | 40.5% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,300 | IF/OF | $8,600 |
4 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.368 | 0.178 | 34.4% | 20.1% | 15.4% | 39.2% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,400 |
5 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.363 | 0.240 | 44.0% | 7.8% | 21.7% | 39.3% | SS | $3,200 | 2B/SS | $4,100 | SS | $8,200 |
6 | Nick Williams | LEFT | 0.377 | 0.213 | 34.4% | 8.6% | 23.7% | 43.6% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $4,100 | RF | $8,100 |
7 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.216 | 26.1% | 5.1% | 13.7% | 53.1% | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $7,700 |
8 | Jorge Alfaro | RIGHT | 0.273 | 0.144 | 32.7% | 4.0% | 38.6% | 53.6% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,600 | C | $7,300 |
9 | Zach Eflin | RIGHT | 0.129 | 0.136 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 62.5% | 85.7% | P | $8,300 | P | $8,000 | P | $15,100 |
Team Averages | 0.316 | 0.193 | 31.2% | 8.8% | 27.3% | 47.4% |
Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera
Secondary Plays – Nick Williams, Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera
Stackability – YELLOW
Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.