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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 14th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-07-15 01:14:45

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Milwaukee Pittsburgh
milwaukeemlb Chase Anderson pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.281 0.316 35.8% 84.5 19.2% 38.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.358 0.393 33.7% 90.0 12.1% 41.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.372 36.5% 87.4 19.4% 32.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.326 36.3% 89.6 24.2% 50.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chase Anderson
chase-anderson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.14 2.74 23.4% 7.2% 39.2% 31.7% 19.9% 93.1 10.2%
2018 17 4.75 3.99 19.3% 9.5% 35.2% 36.1% 19.4% 92.5 8.8%
L14 2 3.73 1.46 23.8% 4.8% 33.3% 33.3% 13.3% 93.3 12.3%

The 4.75 SIERA on the ledger of Chase Anderson tells us that his 3.81 ERA is somewhat fraudulent. The right-hander’s K-rate has dipped about 4% from where it was last season, while his walks are up 2%. He has also yielded a hard contact rate of 37.5%. Anderson is a reverse splits fly ball guy going up against a Pittsburgh lineup without a lot of strikeouts in it. His recent results have been decent from a run prevention standpoint, but Anderson hasn’t flashed much upside this season.

Quick Breakdown: I’d be fading Anderson today in Pittsburgh.

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 4.45 4.14 16.7% 4.6% 45.7% 34.8% 16.6% 92.8 8.4%
2018 16 4.13 4.48 18.1% 4.3% 45.9% 34.9% 16.9% 93.1 8.8%
L14 2 6.20 8.18 10.2% 4.1% 21.6% 37.5% 10.0% 93.7 6.3%

Ivan Nova is about as pedestrian as it gets. His 4.10 SIERA is an improvement over his 4.50 ERA, but he has a mediocre strikeout rate hovering around 18% and he’s allowed hard hits at a 35% clip. Nova has also been taken deep 19 times already this season, which means he’s on pace to blow past his previous career-worst mark of 29 if he keeps it up. The Brewers lineup will strike out a little, but Nova isn’t really a guy capable of missing bats in bunches.

Quick Breakdown: Unless he’s pitching on a short slate, Nova is a guy that almost never shows up on my DFS radar.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Nova has allowed a hefty .371 wOBA with 10 home runs to left-handed hitters this season, and the Brewers do have some decent LHBs to face him. Eric Thames and Travis Shaw look like decent home run candidates, while Jonathan Villar, Brad Miller and Christian Yelich are in play, too. Jesus Aguilar is a man possessed this season, so I’m cool with rostering him despite the lack of the platoon edge against Nova. The ballpark isn’t ideal, but I think a Brewers stack makes sense given Nova’s struggles.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Thames LEFT 0.411 92.6 0.328 48.8% 12.1% 27.0% 33.3% OF $4,100 1B/OF $4,900 N/A N/A
2 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.329 89.1 0.112 35.3% 13.4% 19.4% 59.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.394 93.1 0.196 45.7% 10.8% 22.9% 51.0% OF $3,900 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
4 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.395 90.6 0.314 46.0% 7.9% 27.8% 31.4% 1B $4,200 1B $5,200 N/A N/A
5 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.400 90.2 0.276 41.8% 14.2% 17.6% 33.9% 3B $3,400 3B $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Brad Miller LEFT 0.351 92.1 0.191 46.6% 10.7% 31.5% 34.0% SS $2,400 1B/2B $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.255 86.2 0.092 31.6% 5.7% 30.5% 63.3% 2B $2,500 2B $3,800 N/A N/A
8 Erik Kratz RIGHT 0.302 92.5 0.163 56.3% 2.1% 23.4% 40.6% C $2,400 C $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Chase Anderson RIGHT 0.111 65.0 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 47.6% 60.0% P $7,600 P $7,200 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.328 87.9 0.186 39.1% 8.5% 27.5% 45.2%

Elite Plays – Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Jesus Aguilar, Brad Miller

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

Chase Anderson and his reverse splits may well benefit from PNC Park being a terrible place for right-handed power. The Pirates are rarely a team I love to stack, especially at home, but a guy like Starling Marte really stands out in this matchup. Francisco Cervelli is also one of the better catching options here. Otherwise, I don’t see much point in stacking up the Buccos against a guy allowing a .288 wOBA to lefties on the season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.339 87.7 0.159 34.2% 4.1% 11.8% 33.3% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.319 86.6 0.167 29.9% 6.2% 20.7% 47.3% OF $3,800 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.362 90.8 0.221 35.5% 13.9% 22.9% 33.6% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Colin Moran LEFT 0.374 88.5 0.168 34.5% 8.9% 14.8% 41.5% 3B $2,500 3B $3,200 N/A N/A
5 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.332 89.2 0.168 31.3% 7.5% 16.0% 53.8% C $2,700 C $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.327 88.4 0.129 29.7% 9.9% 16.8% 52.1% 1B $2,900 1B $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.278 82.8 0.090 29.9% 3.8% 15.3% 38.3% 2B $2,900 2B $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.317 88.1 0.136 26.5% 7.5% 23.3% 41.3% SS $2,600 SS $3,200 N/A N/A
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.058 76.7 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 52.0% 72.7% P $7,100 P $6,900 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.301 86.5 0.138 27.9% 6.9% 21.5% 46.0%

Elite Plays – Starling Marte

Secondary Plays – Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Toronto Boston
torontomlb Sam Gaviglio bostonmlb Eduardo Rodriguez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.341 31.1% 88.7 15.8% 44.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.307 33.3% 87.5 34.6% 38.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.296 27.6% 87.5 28.8% 55.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.300 0.296 25.6% 87.0 22.5% 39.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sam Gaviglio
sam-gaviglio-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 13 4.96 4.36 15.7% 8.3% 49.4% 31.5% 15.7% 88.6 7.1%
2018 9 3.84 3.81 23.2% 7.7% 50.0% 29.3% 18.7% 88.4 9.5%
L14 2 4.42 3.18 22.9% 12.5% 60.0% 29.0% 9.7% 87.9 11.1%

Sam Gaviglio has been pitching over his head for much of this season, and he was finally eaten by the regression monster in his last start. Gaviglio conceded 6 runs on 6 hits in just 1.2 innings in Atlanta the other day. On the season, the right-hander has a 21.8% strikeout rate alongside a SIERA of 3.95. Gaviglio has shown a decent ground ball lean this season, but targeting pitchers going into Fenway to face the Red Sox sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. There are better spots to take a stab at a guy like Gaviglio.

Quick Breakdown: Gaviglio is an easy fade.

Eduardo Rodriguez
eduardo-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $10,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 24 4.05 4.19 25.8% 8.6% 34.9% 30.8% 18.6% 93.3 11.7%
2018 17 3.75 3.84 24.9% 7.2% 39.6% 26.9% 19.4% 93.2 11.4%
L14 2 4.85 3.75 16.7% 6.3% 30.6% 29.7% 18.9% 93.8 10.1%

Eduardo Rodriguez has a strong 24.7% strikeout rate this season along with a solid SIERA of 3.81. He has kept the hard contact down to a 25.7% clip, as well. His fly ball tendency isn’t ideal for a park like Fenway, and he will give up his fair share of home runs. As long as he can keep the walks in check, though, he has plenty of upside, all things considered. His reverse splits should also come in handy against a fairly RH-heavy Toronto lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez is a solid option in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays went berserk last night, but today they draw a more difficult matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez. That said, E-Rod is still a reverse splits lefty that will give up some home runs. Despite the splits, 46 of the 60 homers Rodriguez has surrendered in his career have come from righties. Fenway profiles better for righty power in the first place, so I don’t hate a Toronto stack of righties in a tournament. Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk are playable. Lourdes Gurriel is another viable salary-saver if he hits high in the lineup again.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.304 91.3 0.158 26.2% 4.8% 25.8% 40.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
2 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.312 89.2 0.000 28.6% 3.6% 21.4% 61.9% 2B $2,700 2B/SS $3,500 N/A N/A
3 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.348 87.8 0.239 32.4% 6.3% 10.2% 37.1% 3B $2,600 2B/3B $3,600 N/A N/A
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.323 87.7 0.153 27.0% 10.6% 22.1% 47.3% 1B $3,700 1B $4,300 N/A N/A
5 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.364 91.6 0.278 31.8% 7.2% 27.8% 41.3% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
6 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.351 93.9 0.111 42.9% 9.6% 22.9% 48.2% 1B $2,700 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.362 92.1 0.023 33.3% 20.0% 23.6% 56.7% C $2,100 C $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.276 84.2 0.167 33.7% 3.9% 14.6% 36.6% OF $2,400 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.291 87.5 0.074 31.8% 6.8% 16.9% 38.6% SS $2,700 SS $3,000 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.326 89.5 0.134 32.0% 8.1% 20.6% 45.4%

Elite Plays – Lourdes Gurriel, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales, Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

The Red Sox seem to routinely grade out as one of the better stacking options, and today is no different. Sam Gaviglio has allowed a .343 wOBA to righties and a .340 mark to lefties in his career, so he’s attackable with hitters of either handedness. J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts are the best options, as usual, with Mitch Moreland and Xander Bogaerts looking like the next best options. Brock Holt looks fine if he’s high in the order, with someone like Eduardo Nunez serving as a viable cheapie.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.475 92.8 0.313 46.1% 12.3% 12.7% 30.3% OF $5,000 OF $5,800 N/A N/A
2 Brock Holt LEFT 0.334 87.2 0.109 29.3% 9.0% 14.7% 55.2% 2B $2,700 2B/SS $3,300 N/A N/A
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.474 94.1 0.344 49.5% 10.2% 20.8% 45.4% OF $4,900 OF $5,300 N/A N/A
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.444 93.2 0.249 38.6% 11.4% 18.9% 39.3% 1B $3,200 1B $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.400 91.9 0.266 42.1% 7.0% 15.6% 47.3% SS $4,100 SS $4,900 N/A N/A
6 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.271 87.4 0.126 27.3% 2.3% 16.7% 50.0% 2B $2,800 2B $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Tzu-Wei Lin LEFT 0.390 87.8 0.074 40.0% 12.9% 22.6% 35.0% SS $2,000 2B/SS $3,100 N/A N/A
8 Blake Swihart SWITCH 0.295 90.6 0.020 40.0% 7.3% 29.1% 42.9% C $2,100 C/OF $3,200 N/A N/A
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.350 92.3 0.143 40.4% 10.5% 23.2% 40.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.381 90.8 0.183 39.3% 9.2% 19.4% 42.8%

Elite Plays – J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Brock Holt, Eduardo Nunez

Stackability – GREEN

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Kansas City Chicago White Sox
kansascitymlb Danny Duffy whitesoxmlb Reynaldo Lopez
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CWS-112 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.278 0.355 38.9% 89.3 19.4% 32.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.356 34.7% 88.0 14.2% 31.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.360 0.381 39.3% 89.4 19.2% 33.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.344 32.2% 88.8 19.4% 41.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Duffy
danny-duffy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $10,900
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 24 4.31 3.81 21.4% 6.7% 39.5% 29.8% 17.8% 92.8 11.4%
2018 18 4.96 5.19 19.2% 10.7% 33.0% 39.2% 14.5% 93.2 10.1%
L14 2 4.45 5.25 18.5% 7.4% 43.6% 41.0% 15.4% 93.6 13.1%

Danny Duffy has been one of the more wildly inconsistent pitchers in baseball this season. Sometimes he dominates, sometimes he gets blasted. On the season, the lefty has a K-rate of 20% along with a walk rate over 10%. He’s also allowed 39% hard contact, and he’s a fly ball pitcher taking a park downgrade. That said, we know he has more consistent strikeout stuff than we’ve seen this season, and he remains incredibly cheap at just $5,800 on DraftKings. The White Sox have some power, but they’re also one of the highest-K lineups in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Given his price, Duffy is an elite SP2 option today.

Reynaldo Lopez
reynaldo-lopez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,300
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 8 5.44 4.72 14.5% 6.8% 30.2% 27.8% 17.9% 94.5 9.0%
2018 18 5.24 3.77 16.6% 10.4% 35.8% 33.5% 21.1% 95.4 8.7%
L14 3 5.48 4.67 15.4% 11.5% 39.3% 39.3% 10.7% 95.5 5.8%

Reynaldo Lopez has looked dominant at times this season, but he’s struggled to stay consistent. The right-hander has a middling 16.6% K-rate alongside an ugly 10.4% walk rate. He is also a fly ball pitcher allowing a hard-hit rate north of 33%. His 3.77 ERA is belied by a 5.25 SIERA, and he’s allowed a wOBA of .324 to lefties this season. The Royals lineup isn’t imposing, but KC does get a park upgrade today going into Chicago.

Quick Breakdown: Lopez is a nice GPP pivot away from Duffy, but I prefer Duffy overall.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Lefties seem to be the way to go when it comes to attacking Lopez, so Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda immediately stand out as the best options from the KC side. Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez are also viable righties at thin positions. Alex Gordon is also a decent cheap option.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.341 86.6 0.082 39.6% 9.8% 16.8% 35.9% 2B $3,200 2B/OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,300
2 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.340 87.8 0.105 37.5% 5.0% 15.0% 25.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,800 RF $7,400
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.392 90.7 0.248 47.5% 8.7% 15.3% 26.9% 3B $3,300 3B $4,700 3B $9,200
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.345 90.4 0.149 44.0% 2.4% 18.4% 36.3% C $2,900 C $3,700 C $7,300
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.392 90.2 0.207 46.1% 6.9% 24.4% 24.7% 1B $2,400 1B $4,000 1B $7,300
6 Hunter Dozier RIGHT 0.261 90.0 0.142 50.0% 5.0% 31.1% 47.4% 1B $2,000 1B $3,200 IF/OF $6,500
7 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.380 87.7 0.122 37.4% 7.4% 20.8% 51.1% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 LF $6,300
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.267 83.9 0.053 34.2% 4.9% 11.5% 45.4% SS $2,200 SS $2,700 SS $5,700
9 Adalberto Mondesi RIGHT 0.301 87.3 0.079 44.4% 2.6% 28.2% 53.8% SS $2,600 2B/SS $4,000 2B $7,700
Team Averages 0.335 88.3 0.132 42.3% 5.9% 20.2% 38.5%

Elite Plays – Lucas Duda, Mike Moustakas

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Chicago White Sox

While I like the price tag on Danny Duffy, he’s still a homer-prone lefty that allows plenty of hard-hit balls getting a negative park shift. Duffman’s tough on lefties, but right-handed hitters have a healthy .354 wOBA against him and they’ve accounted for 18 of the 19 dongs he’s served up. Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson and Matt Davidson all have plenty of pop from the right side. I like this Sox 3-man stack for GPPs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.334 86.9 0.185 34.4% 5.7% 20.7% 42.2% SS $3,100 SS $4,400 SS $8,600
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.264 88.3 0.042 23.5% 7.7% 25.6% 64.7% 3B $3,000 3B $4,100 2B $8,200
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.379 91.8 0.258 36.5% 6.8% 20.3% 51.9% 1B $2,800 1B $3,800 1B $7,300
4 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.423 93.8 0.333 58.8% 16.7% 30.3% 50.0% 1B $2,400 1B/3B $4,300 3B $8,200
5 Kevan Smith RIGHT 0.238 80.1 0.045 20.0% 0.0% 9.1% 70.0% C $2,200 C $3,000 C $5,400
6 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.279 86.4 0.106 30.6% 2.0% 22.4% 52.9% OF $2,300 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
7 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.213 89.6 0.080 31.3% 7.3% 34.1% 58.3% 2B $3,200 2B $4,500 2B $9,200
8 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.282 86.3 0.113 28.0% 4.5% 20.9% 40.4% OF $2,200 OF $3,400 CF $6,400
9 Ryan LaMarre RIGHT 0.277 91.0 0.030 45.8% 5.6% 27.8% 43.5% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
Team Averages 0.299 88.2 0.132 34.3% 6.3% 23.5% 52.7%

Elite Plays – Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Matt Davidson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Tampa Bay Minnesota
tampabaymlb Chris Archer minnesotamlb Jose Berrios
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-138 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.361 0.361 37.5% 88.5 16.9% 46.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.280 0.317 36.2% 86.7 23.3% 36.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 0.333 42.9% 91.5 29.1% 41.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.277 0.284 30.1% 86.0 26.8% 42.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Archer
chris-archer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 34 3.44 4.07 29.2% 7.0% 42.0% 39.4% 13.2% 95.5 13.4%
2018 13 3.92 4.24 23.7% 8.1% 43.7% 40.3% 17.1% 94.6 12.7%

Chris Archer returned from the DL in his last start, and didn’t go all that well. He really struggled in the third inning, laboring through 3 hits, a walk and 3 earned runs, and he came out after 3.1 innings and 78 pitches. He walked 2 and struck out 3. One would imagine the Rays will up his pitch count to around 90 on Saturday, though we have no definitive word as of yet. On the season, Archer has a solid K-rate of 23.3% but he’s allowed a hard contact rate over 40%. That at least partially explains the freakishly high .332 BABIP against him. He’s still pretty cheap, and today he faces a Twins lineup without many scary left-handed sticks.

Quick Breakdown: Archer is worth considering today, but the potentially limited pitch count is a concern.

Jose Berrios
jose-berrios-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,000 Salary: $10,900 Salary: $21,400
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.29 3.89 22.6% 7.8% 39.0% 27.9% 20.4% 93.5 9.4%
2018 18 3.58 3.54 25.0% 5.7% 39.4% 33.3% 20.4% 93.1 11.4%
L14 2 6.43 7.15 10.0% 12.0% 36.8% 44.7% 13.2% 91.7 5.1%

Jose Berrios has pitched pretty well this season, as evidenced by his 25.3% strikeout rate and SIERA of 3.51. The hard contact rate over 34% is a tough high, and his fly ball lean is going to lead to home runs. Berrios has already allowed 17 homers on the year, which is more than he conceded all of last season. Still, there’s some K upside here against a Rays lineup that has whiffed nearly 23% of the time this season against RHPs. As usual, the problem with Berrios is that he’s expensive. On this slate, I’d rather just find the additional funds to pay all the way up to Cole or Nola as my SP1.

Quick Breakdown: Berrios is a good way to differentiate for GPPs, but I don’t have much interest in him for cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Berrios is a good enough pitcher to where I don’t feel the need to pick on him. Even so, the Rays get a substantial park upgrade today and Berrios has been susceptible to power. Wilson Ramos has been on a tear at the plate, but he’d really be the only Tampa hitter on my radar. You can hunt for a homer with a Ji-Man Choi or C.J. Cron, but they’re deep tournament fliers in my eyes.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.258 87.5 0.054 37.5% 9.5% 31.0% 59.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,300
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.330 87.0 0.111 31.8% 6.2% 14.2% 51.1% 3B $2,600 3B $3,900 3B $7,300
3 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.370 90.6 0.203 45.3% 17.6% 23.1% 41.5% 1B $3,100 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
4 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.359 91.0 0.156 40.9% 8.1% 20.6% 53.7% C $3,300 C $4,300 C $8,500
5 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.352 91.9 0.308 57.1% 7.1% 42.9% 28.6% 1B $2,200 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,600
6 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.346 87.6 0.207 35.0% 5.7% 25.4% 45.2% 1B $3,300 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
7 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.288 89.4 0.093 34.7% 5.9% 22.3% 50.3% 2B $2,400 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.299 85.8 0.104 37.7% 3.7% 17.8% 38.5% SS $2,300 SS $3,000 SS $5,400
9 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.282 83.8 0.112 27.3% 8.9% 19.6% 46.8% OF $2,200 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
Team Averages 0.320 88.3 0.150 38.6% 8.1% 24.1% 46.1%

Elite Plays – Wilson Ramos

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron, Ji-Man Choi

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota

Archer has been victimized by some unluckiness so far this season, but he is still allowing plenty of hard contact. Minnesota doesn’t exactly have a lineup full of household names, but there are some decent left-handed bats to consider. Eddie Rosario has been on a heater all season, while Eduardo Escobar, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco make for decent GPP darts. Brian Dozier is also swinging it better of late if you’re in the market for a second baseman with upside. Rosario is really the only Twin on my radar in cash games, however.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.391 90.3 0.080 38.5% 11.8% 11.3% 51.4% 1B $2,600 1B $3,600 1B $7,600
2 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.358 89.8 0.264 38.7% 6.7% 16.3% 28.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,800 LF $8,600
3 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.308 87.4 0.200 39.4% 9.3% 20.0% 37.9% 2B $3,700 2B $4,400 2B $8,100
4 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.367 86.8 0.311 40.1% 6.3% 23.3% 25.1% 3B $3,500 3B/SS $4,200 3B $8,500
5 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.337 84.9 0.111 23.1% 14.3% 23.8% 50.0% SS $3,200 SS $3,900 SS $7,200
6 Max Kepler LEFT 0.323 89.9 0.142 38.0% 11.7% 13.8% 37.4% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 RF $8,200
7 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.313 87.5 0.106 37.9% 11.6% 21.4% 37.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 LF $7,700
8 Jake Cave LEFT 0.380 90.3 0.180 36.8% 3.8% 23.1% 50.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 CF $5,900
9 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.230 77.9 0.103 22.4% 6.5% 18.2% 50.0% C $2,200 C $2,800 C $5,600
Team Averages 0.334 87.2 0.166 35.0% 9.1% 19.0% 40.8%

Elite Plays – Eddie Rosario

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Arizona at Atlanta – 4:10 PM ET

Arizona Atlanta
arizonamlb Zack Greinke atlantamlb Sean Newcomb
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-105 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.349 42.5% 87.4 22.7% 44.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.360 38.8% 90.5 23.4% 49.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 0.325 44.6% 89.1 26.6% 39.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.285 31.2% 85.9 22.9% 45.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Greinke
zack-greinke-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,500 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,100
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 3.48 3.20 26.8% 5.6% 46.8% 35.1% 19.2% 91.0 12.4%
2018 19 3.45 3.39 25.0% 4.9% 41.7% 43.7% 16.9% 89.3 11.1%
L14 3 4.05 2.00 19.5% 5.2% 39.3% 49.1% 15.8% 89.5 11.0%

Zack Greinke is no longer the bona fide ace we saw during his Dodger days, but he’s still quite effective. The veteran has a strong K-rate of 25% and he’s still not walking anybody. His 3.45 SIERA is about in line with his 3.39 ERA. The issue here is that he has allowed a very un-Greinke-like hard contact rate of nearly 44% so far. His ground ball rate has also taken a nosedive to just 41.7%. He also gets a tough road matchup today against a Braves team with one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league against right-handers. The cheap price tag is nice, but there’s no shortage of risk here.

Quick Breakdown: Greinke is cheap enough to warrant GPP consideration, but too risky for cash games.

Sean Newcomb
sean-newcomb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,900
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 19 4.71 4.32 23.7% 12.5% 43.8% 27.0% 17.5% 93.7 11.2%
2018 18 4.48 3.44 23.0% 11.8% 46.1% 32.6% 23.0% 92.8 10.3%
L14 3 6.19 9.49 17.5% 17.5% 29.3% 43.9% 19.5% 92.9 11.4%

The 23% K-rate for Sean Newcomb looks nice, but the 11.8 walk rate certainly does not. The young southpaw’s 4.49 SIERA also suggests his 3.44 ERA is flukey. Newcomb has also been in ragged form lately, having allowed a total of 10 earned runs in just 6.1 innings over his last 2 starts. The Diamondbacks were running a watered-down lineup out there for much of the season, but they’ve finally gotten healthy. The matchup still comes with some strikeout potential, but Newcomb would have to be cheaper for me to have any real interest.

Quick Breakdown: Newcomb isn’t really on my radar today.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Newcomb is a southpaw that has shown some pretty staunch reverse splits so far in his career. He has yielded a .327 wOBA with 5 home runs to lefties with a .310 mark and 15 jacks to righties. SunTrust is a good park for lefty power, so someone like Jake Lamb or David Peralta makes sense as a low-owned lefty-lefty GPP play. I’m still fine with targeting some of the decent righties, which puts Paul Goldschmidt, Steven Souza and A.J. Pollock into play. That said, I respect Newcomb’s skills enough to where I’d rather target DBax hitters as one-offs as opposed to a full-on stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.278 82.7 0.000 27.8% 10.5% 21.1% 77.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,900 CF $7,200
2 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.325 87.9 0.210 43.9% 5.7% 17.0% 40.2% SS $2,700 SS $4,100 SS $8,200
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.467 91.2 0.347 52.2% 15.8% 22.8% 30.4% 1B $4,100 1B $5,600 1B $10,100
4 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.378 92.0 0.389 48.8% 6.7% 23.3% 41.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,900 CF $8,700
5 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.339 89.9 0.000 66.7% 10.5% 26.3% 66.7% OF $2,700 OF $4,100 RF $8,400
6 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.360 92.0 0.274 46.6% 8.1% 8.1% 58.3% 2B $2,700 2B/SS $4,000 SS $7,200
7 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.333 85.8 0.081 34.6% 13.6% 27.3% 53.8% 3B $2,800 3B $4,000 3B $7,500
8 Jeff Mathis RIGHT 0.324 89.7 0.174 46.7% 22.6% 29.0% 46.7% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,800
9 Zack Greinke RIGHT 0.276 82.4 0.000 50.0% 12.5% 12.5% 50.0% P $10,500 P $8,400 P $16,100
Team Averages 0.342 88.2 0.164 46.4% 11.8% 20.8% 51.6%

Elite Plays – Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Plays – David Peralta, Steven Souza, A.J. Pollock

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta

Greinke generally isn’t a guy we want to pick on, but he has been allowing more homers and hard contact this season than we’re used to seeing. Freddie Freeman is a strong option pretty much any time he takes the field, but the rest of the Braves look like secondary plays, at best. The lefties would be the preferred plays, with Freeman being the lone play that looks cash-viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.284 82.6 0.121 24.6% 8.5% 12.0% 46.3% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
2 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.327 85.7 0.233 36.1% 4.7% 16.9% 36.4% 2B $4,100 2B $5,000 2B $9,900
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.423 90.4 0.197 47.6% 14.4% 16.7% 36.2% 1B $4,200 1B $4,700 1B $9,400
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.413 91.6 0.156 41.6% 11.3% 7.9% 42.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
5 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.351 88.6 0.078 46.0% 8.7% 26.2% 38.1% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,700
6 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.332 90.1 0.155 41.4% 15.2% 18.5% 51.7% 3B $2,700 3B/SS $3,700 3B $7,400
7 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.367 92.1 0.221 45.1% 5.4% 30.4% 45.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 LF $8,200
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.290 87.6 0.147 32.7% 6.6% 24.2% 43.0% SS $2,800 SS $3,200 SS $6,400
9 Sean Newcomb LEFT 0.054 68.7 0.040 9.1% 0.0% 60.7% 87.5% P $6,900 P $6,900 P $13,900
Team Averages 0.316 86.4 0.150 36.0% 8.3% 23.7% 47.4%

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles