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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 23rd

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-06-23 15:18:32

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Oakland at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Oakland Chicago White Sox
Article Image Daniel Mengden Article Image Dylan Covey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK-109 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.272 0.388 41.1% 1.8% 12.7% 30.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.306 34.3% 11.5% 20.2% 56.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.364 36.0% 7.4% 16.3% 47.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.237 0.296 31.5% 5.6% 19.4% 64.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Daniel Mengden
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 7 4.68 3.14 17.2% 5.3% 39.2% 25.2% 18.3%
2018 15 4.66 4.06 14.7% 4.9% 39.4% 38.4% 15.0%
L14 2 7.10 8.71 5.9% 13.7% 35.0% 42.5% 10.0%

Mustachioed right-hander Daniel Mengden has pitched pretty well overall for the A’s this season, but he’s been in poor form of late. On the year, the right-hander has a 4.66 SIERA and a middling strikeout rate below 15%. While he has shown good control, he’s also yielded a hard contact rate over 38% and he has a serious fly ball lean. That is fine in his home park in Oakland, but things can get dicey in a more hitter-friendly environment like Guaranteed Rate Field. One thing to like about Mengden today is his matchup with a mediocre White Sox offense. Mengden is in a fine spot for run prevention, but he never carries much K upside.

Quick Breakdown: Mengden isn’t among my list of preferred pitching options on the afternoon slate.

Dylan Covey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $7,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 12 5.64 7.71 13.3% 11.0% 48.5% 36.5% 18.0%
2018 7 4.02 2.90 19.9% 9.1% 60.2% 33.1% 17.7%
L14 3 4.23 3.00 18.2% 7.8% 56.4% 25.0% 14.3%

If baseball had a Most Improved Player Award, Dylan Covey might be a candidate. After being one of the worst starters in baseball last season, the righty has improved in 2018. His SIERA is down from 5.64 to 4.02, while he’s upped his strikeout rate to nearly 20%. Covey has also posted an elite ground ball rate over 60%, and he’s allowed just 1 home run after conceding 20 in 18 outings a season ago. While he may no longer be a gas can, I’m still not all that enthused about deploying him today against an A’s offense with plenty of thunder.

Quick Breakdown: Covey has improved, but there’s more downside than upside with him today against Oakland.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Covey has been tough on RHBs this season (.234 wOBA allowed), while lefties have given him more problems (.324). The A’s are seeing a serious ballpark upgrade today going into Chicago, and there are a few lefties here that can take advantage of Covey’s wide split. Matt Olson stands out as the top play on the Oakland side, while Dustin Fowler and Jed Lowrie look like capable secondary plays. You can always take a shot with a guy like Khris Davis in GPPs given his tremendous power upside, too. I’ll stop short of endorsing a full A’s stack, but it’s not the worst idea in large-field GPPs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.328 0.164 33.3% 13.5% 24.2% 30.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
2 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.312 0.327 0.098 29.3% 8.4% 18.7% 43.3% SS $3,400 SS $4,100 N/A N/A
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.339 0.276 0.230 35.2% 10.0% 22.3% 37.6% 3B $3,400 2B $4,300 N/A N/A
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.446 0.487 0.324 51.6% 7.6% 24.9% 34.4% OF $4,000 OF $5,100 N/A N/A
5 Matt Olson LEFT 0.407 0.337 0.250 54.2% 10.5% 29.0% 32.2% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Dustin Fowler LEFT 0.340 0.291 0.169 48.0% 5.3% 16.8% 43.8% OF $2,100 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
7 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.329 0.411 0.113 41.0% 10.7% 23.1% 42.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.355 0.382 0.139 45.8% 7.1% 21.4% 44.1% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
9 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.322 0.332 0.102 44.4% 5.4% 15.5% 46.5% C $2,100 C $2,800 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.353 0.355 0.177 42.5% 8.7% 21.8% 39.4%

Elite Plays – Matt Olson

Secondary Plays – Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, Dustin Fowler

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Chicago White Sox

None of Mengden’s numbers really jump off the page, but he is a reverse-splits righty that has already allowed 14 dingers on the year. The White Sox aren’t a fun offense, but there are some power bats in the lineup. Jose Abreu looks like a strong play in a righty-righty matchup, while Yoan Moncada also registers as viable any time he gets to hit as a lefty. Avisail Garcia has also returned after a lengthy stint on the DL, though I’m likely to reserve him for tournaments until he rounds back into form. In general, I’d probably rather play Mengden than load up on White Sox hitters against him.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.376 0.319 0.206 44.1% 9.7% 35.6% 30.8% 2B $2,800 2B $3,700 N/A N/A
2 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.346 0.038 35.7% 0.0% 20.0% 54.8% OF $2,000 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.382 0.292 0.201 34.6% 5.7% 17.1% 40.5% 1B $3,200 1B $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.325 0.225 0.200 35.2% 4.4% 30.9% 42.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
5 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.376 0.268 0.217 40.7% 12.4% 35.4% 38.5% 1B $2,800 1B/3B $3,800 N/A N/A
6 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.312 0.366 0.120 26.0% 9.7% 19.4% 37.5% C $2,100 C $2,700 N/A N/A
7 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.287 0.259 0.167 27.7% 8.3% 27.7% 42.6% SS $2,600 SS $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.341 0.333 0.173 28.0% 4.9% 15.6% 47.1% 3B $2,300 3B $3,500 N/A N/A
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.242 0.246 0.079 22.5% 6.5% 28.4% 39.4% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.332 0.289 0.156 32.7% 6.8% 25.6% 41.5%

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada, Avisail Garcia

Stackability – ORANGE

Texas at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Texas Minnesota
Article Image Yovani Gallardo Article Image Jake Odorizzi
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-130 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.461 0.467 23.1% 28.6% 9.5% 53.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.357 0.381 38.1% 11.0% 19.5% 24.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.510 0.359 41.2% 4.6% 18.2% 17.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.344 0.345 32.2% 9.7% 25.4% 27.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yovani Gallardo
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 22 5.27 5.72 16.3% 10.4% 44.1% 32.9% 19.4%
2018 1 6.19 15.95 14.0% 16.3% 33.3% 33.3% 16.7%
L14 1 5.20 9.00 16.7% 12.5% 41.2% 23.5% 11.8%

Yovani Gallardo made his dramatic return to the Rangers to start last week against the Rockies. Things didn’t go smoothly, as the veteran allowed 5 runs on 6 hits in 5 innings with 4 whiffs. The right-hander was once a serviceable strikeout arm with the Brewers, but those days have long since passed. Over the last few years, his K-rate has hovered in the mid-teens while his walk rate is consistently in double-figures. Neither of those is ideal. Over his last couple of seasons with the Mariners and Orioles, he was a guy with generally neutral splits that has been hittable against hitters of either handendess. The Twins’ lineup looks bad these days, but playing Gallardo at this stage of his career just seems like a disaster waiting to happen.

Quick Breakdown: The Twins offense is bad, but Gallardo is one of the easiest fades of the slate.

Jake Odorizzi
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $7,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.90 4.14 21.0% 10.1% 30.6% 36.8% 15.3%
2018 15 4.58 4.38 22.7% 10.3% 25.7% 35.0% 22.0%
L14 2 5.84 5.40 18.8% 16.7% 30.0% 36.7% 30.0%

Jake Odorizzi may be unspectacular, but he’s still playable in certain matchups. At this point, he’s basically Marco Estrada with better strikeout stuff. The reverse-split, fly-ball right-hander has a K-rate nearing 23% this season, though his 10.3% walk rate doesn’t look too friendly. He has also allowed a hard contact rate of 35%. Hard-hit fly balls have a way of becoming homers, and Odorizzi has already surrendered 14 of those this season after coughing up 30 a year ago. The matchup today is solid, however, as he’ll face a lefty-heavy Rangers lineup with plenty of strikeouts in it. Those reverse-splits should help him neutralize some of Texas’ best hitters. He may give up a dong or two, but Odorizzi is on my radar as a potential SP2.

Quick Breakdown: Odorizzi is in play today given the matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Jake Odorizzi will serve up some homers, and the Rangers do have some pop. While he has a reverse-split tendency, the right-hander has already allowed 8 dingers to LHBs on the year. You can always take a flier on someone like Joey Gallo, who has all sorts of home run potential in any matchup. Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor and Shin-Soo Choo are also in decent spots, but I have more interest in Odorizzi than in Rangers bats. That said, they’re stackable in GPPs thanks to Odorizzi’s struggles with the long ball.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-Soo Choo LEFT 0.405 0.434 0.227 48.3% 16.0% 21.8% 50.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.379 0.241 0.173 33.3% 11.5% 6.6% 52.1% SS $3,300 SS $4,000 N/A N/A
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.381 0.333 0.189 39.9% 10.2% 16.6% 54.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.342 0.322 0.133 44.0% 8.7% 17.4% 41.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.326 0.453 0.175 31.4% 8.3% 14.1% 44.9% 2B $3,700 SS $4,200 N/A N/A
6 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.301 0.300 0.111 39.5% 9.7% 27.4% 40.0% 2B $2,500 2B $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.397 0.372 0.259 50.0% 13.1% 34.1% 30.9% OF $3,200 1B/OF $3,900 N/A N/A
8 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.284 0.382 0.168 48.6% 8.2% 42.4% 29.0% C $2,400 C $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.252 0.317 0.069 26.6% 11.2% 23.5% 47.4% OF $2,900 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.341 0.350 0.167 40.2% 10.8% 22.7% 43.4%

Elite Plays – Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Joey Gallo, Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota

The Twins get an exploitable matchup against Yovani Gallardo, who doesn’t miss bats at this stage of his career. Brian Dozier has been a frustrating play this season, but you have to believe he’s going to snap out of his funk at some point. The real plays of intrigue here are Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar, who have been raking all year long. I also like Logan Morrison, who seems to be awakening from a slumber of his own. The Twins aren’t an easy lineup to stack these days, but I think they grade out as one of the better offenses on the board.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.413 0.322 0.088 41.3% 14.3% 11.6% 51.9% 1B $2,600 1B $3,400 N/A N/A
2 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.359 0.365 0.281 40.5% 7.2% 16.4% 28.7% OF $3,400 OF $5,400 N/A N/A
3 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.389 0.455 0.337 44.4% 5.8% 23.0% 22.2% 3B $3,500 3B/SS $4,700 N/A N/A
4 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.311 0.242 0.185 39.0% 8.8% 18.8% 41.3% 2B $3,400 2B $3,500 N/A N/A
5 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.361 0.421 0.172 39.3% 12.1% 19.2% 32.2% 1B $2,400 1B $3,300 N/A N/A
6 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.324 0.277 0.113 39.2% 11.9% 20.3% 33.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,000 N/A N/A
7 Max Kepler LEFT 0.328 0.282 0.135 40.3% 12.4% 13.4% 39.6% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
8 Ehire Adrianza SWITCH 0.303 0.319 0.153 40.0% 8.1% 23.4% 35.4% SS $2,200 SS $3,100 N/A N/A
9 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.293 0.298 0.130 37.5% 6.9% 27.7% 42.2% C $2,200 C $2,700 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.342 0.331 0.177 40.2% 9.7% 19.3% 36.3%

Elite Plays – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Max Kepler, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Miami at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Miami Colorado
Article Image Trevor Richards Article Image Tyler Anderson
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
COL-167 11.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.309 36.2% 13.0% 24.7% 31.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.432 0.365 34.1% 12.9% 22.9% 32.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.383 0.388 48.6% 8.7% 14.1% 44.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.308 32.3% 7.1% 19.8% 36.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Richards
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 8 4.83 5.45 18.9% 10.7% 39.7% 43.6% 15.4%
L14 3 5.06 6.28 12.9% 6.5% 40.8% 46.0% 12.0%

Trevor Richards is a rookie right-hander pitching at Coors today. He’s allowed a hard-hit rate over 43% along with a strikeout rate south of 19%. He showed something of a ground ball lean in the minors, but his splits so far at the big league level look more fly ball-friendly. He’s only allowed 4 homers in 8 starts, but did I mention he’s in Colorado this afternoon?

Quick Breakdown: Richards is an easy fade.

Tyler Anderson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $6,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 4.14 4.81 22.4% 7.2% 43.7% 32.0% 24.1%
2018 15 4.39 4.52 20.4% 8.3% 35.7% 32.6% 23.4%
L14 3 3.73 2.79 20.5% 3.9% 44.8% 32.8% 31.0%

Normally we can safely ignore any pitcher pitching in this ballpark, and that may be the case again today. Still, there is at least some merit to taking a chance on Tyler Anderson. The lefty has a strikeout rate around 20% and he was a ground ball pitcher back in 2016 when he was healthy. He hasn’t shown that same tendency so far this season, though, and he has already allowed 14 homers in 15 starts. Anderson does get the benefit of facing a subpar Marlins offense this afternoon. The Fish are obviously getting a monstrous park upgrade, but they’re not the most fearsome bunch in general. I wouldn’t go here in cash, but I think there’s merit to throwing a dart with what will presumably be a low-owned Anderson in tournaments. There’s some upside in this spot.

Quick Breakdown: He’s a no for cash, but Anderson is cheap enough to warrant GPP consideration.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

While Anderson is a decent pitcher overall, the Marlins are still going to be taking their hacks in a hitter’s paradise against a lefty with a home run problem. Justin Bour is the main attraction for the Marlins these days, so I don’t hate him even lefty-on-lefty. He’s the only LHB I have much interest in, so I’ll leave the rest of my MIA exposure to the righties. Starlin Castro, J.T. Realmuto, Brian Anderson, Lewis Brinson and Cameron Maybin grade out as solid plays as individuals or as a part of a Marlins stack. We don’t get to stack the Marlins often, but it’s a viable strategy in Denver.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.333 0.251 0.083 42.9% 12.0% 20.5% 44.6% 2B $3,600 2B $4,000 N/A N/A
2 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.407 0.390 0.176 49.3% 11.5% 14.6% 52.1% OF $3,700 3B/OF $5,000 N/A N/A
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.344 0.379 0.157 37.8% 5.5% 25.5% 37.8% C $3,800 C $5,000 N/A N/A
4 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.364 0.363 0.097 33.9% 8.8% 13.8% 41.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.313 0.349 0.068 29.7% 17.0% 22.6% 59.4% 1B $3,800 1B $4,300 N/A N/A
6 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.347 0.381 0.167 35.6% 4.8% 23.8% 53.4% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.324 0.301 0.101 24.6% 9.0% 11.5% 26.2% 3B $3,200 3B/SS $3,500 N/A N/A
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.239 0.369 0.150 20.0% 0.0% 28.6% 78.6% SS $3,000 SS $3,400 N/A N/A
9 Trevor Richards RIGHT 0.044 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0% P $5,500 P $5,200 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.302 0.309 0.111 30.4% 7.6% 25.3% 43.7%

Elite Plays – Starlin Castro, J.T. Realmuto, Brian Anderson

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour, Lewis Brinson, Cameron Maybin

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

Whenever they’re at home, the Rockies are stackable in any and all formats. Trevor Richards doesn’t appear to be a pitcher worth fearing, so it’s all systems go for Colorado bats again today. You want to start things off with the usual suspects, which means Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez and Trevor Story make for strong options. You can pretty much play any guy that cracks the Colorado lineup today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.335 0.322 0.131 32.8% 5.5% 16.5% 52.0% 2B $4,200 2B $4,900 N/A N/A
2 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.356 0.250 0.253 35.6% 11.8% 21.2% 44.4% OF $4,700 OF $5,800 N/A N/A
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.361 0.356 0.194 39.7% 11.5% 20.5% 39.7% 3B $5,300 3B $5,900 N/A N/A
4 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.326 0.342 0.217 32.3% 9.0% 22.2% 41.8% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
5 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.356 0.406 0.217 45.4% 8.1% 26.7% 36.0% SS $4,300 SS $5,500 N/A N/A
6 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.341 0.381 0.106 37.8% 5.8% 14.5% 43.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
7 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.299 0.368 0.161 28.9% 8.3% 28.0% 65.3% 1B $4,000 1B/OF $4,700 N/A N/A
8 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.353 0.442 0.209 37.7% 13.0% 28.7% 41.7% C $3,100 C $3,700 N/A N/A
9 Tyler Anderson LEFT 0.129 0.026 0.000 12.5% 5.3% 47.4% 0.0% P $6,000 P $6,200 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.317 0.321 0.165 33.6% 8.7% 25.1% 40.5%

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story, Gerardo Parra, D.J. LeMahieu

Secondary Plays – Chris Iannetta, Ian Desmond

Stackability – GREEN

Arizona at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM ET

Arizona Pittsburgh
Article Image Zack Greinke Article Image Joe Musgrove
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-101 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.312 0.341 41.7% 5.2% 23.4% 45.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 0.321 42.1% 7.6% 18.9% 39.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.339 45.6% 5.1% 27.2% 38.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.279 28.0% 2.7% 26.0% 46.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Greinke
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $9,700 Salary: $18,900
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.48 3.20 26.8% 5.6% 46.8% 35.1% 19.2%
2018 15 3.38 3.90 25.6% 5.1% 41.2% 43.9% 16.1%
L14 3 4.42 5.94 21.8% 10.3% 41.5% 39.6% 15.1%

Zack Greinke may no longer be a part of the club of ultra elite starters, but he’s still extremely productive. The 34-year-old has maintained a 25.6% K-rate to this point while still keeping walks to a minimum. His 3.38 SIERA is a tad better than his 3.90 ERA, as well. One red flag with Greinke this season has been the hard contact. The right-hander has yielded a hard-hit rate just under 44% and he has coughed up 16 dingers already. Greinke’s homer totals jumped immediately after moving to Arizona, but he’s already on pace to blow by his previous career-worst mark of 26, set during his rookie year. Greinke will be pitching in a pitcher’s park today in Pittsburgh against a Pirates lineup that doesn’t strike out a whole lot. While he’s unlikely to get rocked, the K upside is capped against a high-contact lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Greinke is a solid play, but his price is awkward for roster construction.

Joe Musgrove
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,800
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 4.04 4.77 21.2% 6.1% 44.9% 30.2% 20.2%
2018 5 3.60 3.68 23.0% 4.8% 43.7% 34.1% 18.2%
L14 2 3.17 6.97 25.0% 2.1% 38.7% 43.8% 21.9%

Joe Musgrove has pitched well this season. The right-hander has a strikeout rate of 23% and a sub-5% walk rate. The hard-hit rate of 34.1% is a tad high, though far from disastrous. His 3.60 SIERA and 3.68 ERA are in lockstep, and his lone poor outing came last time out against the Reds. One potential area of concern with Musgrove is that he’s topped 88 pitches just once in his 5 starts, but there’s no real reason to believe he can’t get back to 100 or so if he’s going well. The Diamondbacks have some quality bats, but they’re getting a park downgrade going into PNC and they have a collective strikeout rate of 25% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Musgrove is among a handful of playable but meh pitching options on the afternoon slate.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks aren’t in a great spot going up against Joe Musgrove, who is a generally solid right-hander. Arizona has been swinging the bats well of late, though, and I don’t necessarily think Musgrove is a pitcher we have to completely avoid. PNC is more favorable to lefties than righties, so Jake Lamb and David Peralta are the hitters I’d start with. Paul Goldschmidt is still Paul Goldschmidt, however, so he’s always in play. I’m generally lukewarm on this offense today, though, so I’m not crazy about stacking here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.343 0.345 0.107 38.3% 5.7% 13.9% 53.2% OF $3,200 OF $4,500 CF $9,100
2 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.357 0.564 0.206 45.5% 12.8% 31.3% 42.3% 1B $4,600 1B $5,200 1B $10,100
3 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.378 0.327 0.194 46.3% 10.3% 26.2% 43.3% 3B $3,200 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
4 David Peralta LEFT 0.376 0.394 0.254 53.5% 8.1% 18.8% 47.6% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 RF $9,200
5 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.381 0.408 0.250 43.7% 17.1% 23.4% 31.1% 2B $3,100 2B/3B $3,700 3B $7,700
6 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.291 0.363 0.129 26.9% 7.1% 15.4% 52.7% 2B $3,200 2B/SS $3,900 SS $7,700
7 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.283 0.235 0.068 20.9% 11.8% 12.5% 40.7% OF $2,300 OF $3,900 CF $7,300
8 Jeff Mathis RIGHT 0.249 0.374 0.020 26.5% 12.3% 28.1% 40.6% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,500
9 Zack Greinke RIGHT 0.329 0.257 0.100 31.3% 8.3% 25.0% 28.6% P $8,900 P $9,700 P $18,900
Team Averages 0.332 0.363 0.148 37.0% 10.4% 21.6% 42.2%

Elite Plays – Jake Lamb, David Peralta

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

As is the case with the Diamondbacks, I’m not enthralled with the idea of deploying a bunch of Pirates against Zack Greinke. Greinke has done a fine job stifling righties in his career, but lefties have enjoyed a bit more success. Someone like Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson or Austin Meadows look like decent individual plays, but there’s no reason to stack against Greinke here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.310 0.330 0.114 33.9% 4.8% 15.9% 33.3% 2B $2,700 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
2 Austin Meadows LEFT 0.342 0.315 0.167 39.3% 1.5% 16.2% 35.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.313 0.401 0.164 29.0% 6.3% 19.0% 46.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
4 Colin Moran LEFT 0.374 0.381 0.174 32.9% 9.4% 15.8% 40.3% 3B $2,600 3B $3,300 3B $6,300
5 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.328 0.345 0.131 31.7% 9.9% 17.6% 49.7% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.372 0.377 0.223 37.7% 12.7% 21.1% 32.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 RF $7,300
7 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.351 0.467 0.179 30.5% 6.8% 12.3% 50.8% C $2,300 C $3,300 C $6,700
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.338 0.404 0.160 27.7% 7.7% 20.6% 40.1% SS $2,500 SS $3,100 SS $5,500
9 Joe Musgrove RIGHT 0.133 0.021 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 28.6% 100.0% P $7,800 P $7,700 P $15,800
Team Averages 0.318 0.338 0.146 31.4% 6.6% 18.6% 47.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson, Austin Meadows, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Washington
Article Image Aaron Nola Article Image Erick Fedde
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-107 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.255 0.284 23.9% 8.9% 20.8% 56.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.393 0.430 39.1% 9.7% 16.1% 56.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.249 0.248 30.4% 5.0% 30.2% 49.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 0.377 44.4% 2.8% 22.2% 46.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Nola
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $11,800 Salary: $22,800
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 3.60 3.54 26.6% 7.1% 49.8% 29.7% 21.6%
2018 15 3.39 2.55 25.3% 7.0% 53.3% 26.9% 20.5%
L14 2 3.17 4.09 29.2% 8.3% 50.0% 24.1% 27.6%

Aaron Nola is the most expensive pitcher on the afternoon slate, and with good reason. Last start notwithstanding, he’s been outstanding this season. The right-hander has a 25.3% strikeout rate along with a manageable 7% walk rate. He has kept the hard contact down under 27%, which looks nice alongside a 53.3% ground ball rate. Nola has allowed just 6 homers and he’s kept hitters of either handedness to a .254 wOBA or worse. The only snag with Nola today is the matchup with a Nationals team that is on the mend. Of course, this isn’t the worst time to target them, either. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy have been struggling, and Nationals Park is generally favorable for pitchers. Nola projects well enough today, but paying nearly $12k for a guy facing Washington is a tough pill to swallow.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is great, but too expensive for my liking.

Erick Fedde
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,100
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 3 4.45 9.39 19.7% 10.5% 61.7% 34.6% 15.4%
2018 3 3.88 5.63 19.4% 6.0% 51.0% 42.0% 12.0%
L14 2 4.07 6.10 15.9% 6.8% 57.6% 47.1% 5.9%

Erick Fedde has made 3 perfectly average starts for the Nats this season. He’s allowed at least 3 earned runs in each outing while maintaining an uninspiring K-rate of about 19%. While he has kept the walks down, Fedde has also been allowing a ton of hard contact. 42% so far, to be exact. He has done a fine job keeping the ball on the ground, however, and his 3.88 SIERA looks a lot better than that 5.63 ERA. Fedde will be facing a strikeout-happy Phils lineup today, but he’s not really all that cheap given his production to this point.

Quick Breakdown: There isn’t much reason to play Erick Fedde today.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Erick Fedde is a guy that hasn’t gotten blasted this season, but the most likely outcome here is that he surrenders a few earned runs before exiting. The righty has allowed a wOBA of .456 to righties and .373 to lefties in his career, albeit in a tiny sample. Lefties have been better against him this season, so that’s where I’d start when selecting Phillies hitters. Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez, Nick Williams and Odubel Herrera look like decent individual options. Rhys Hoskins has been swinging it well since coming off the DL, so I’m fine with him from the right side, too. I like the idea of a Phillies mini-stack in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.332 0.307 0.156 27.4% 13.8% 23.3% 44.0% 2B $3,800 2B $4,400 2B $8,200
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.399 0.440 0.235 35.4% 13.3% 28.1% 28.3% OF $4,200 OF $4,700 IF/OF $9,000
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.331 0.326 0.198 28.3% 8.0% 19.8% 43.6% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 IF/OF $9,100
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.389 0.323 0.229 36.6% 20.1% 13.7% 36.8% 1B $3,400 1B $4,200 1B $8,300
5 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.311 0.337 0.118 29.0% 6.3% 22.2% 39.3% SS $2,500 SS $3,100 SS $5,500
6 Nick Williams LEFT 0.388 0.373 0.240 33.7% 8.3% 23.6% 47.4% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 RF $6,700
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.306 0.294 0.160 22.7% 4.6% 17.1% 55.5% 3B $2,500 3B $3,300 3B $6,300
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.264 0.248 0.134 29.7% 3.0% 39.6% 54.1% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,700
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.113 0.000 0.000 0.0% 4.5% 54.5% 60.0% P $9,500 P $11,800 P $22,800
Team Averages 0.315 0.294 0.163 27.0% 9.1% 26.9% 45.4%

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

The Nats draw a brutal matchup with Aaron Nola, who has been dominant this season. With the way some of Washington’s better hitters have been struggling of late I’m not particularly inclined to get cute here. Fading the Nationals is unlikely to kill you on this slate. The lineup is talented enough to where you can get them at low ownership, however, so I won’t talk you out of a GPP stack in this spot if you want to take that route. I will likely be staying away, however.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.437 0.254 0.192 51.1% 6.9% 12.1% 42.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 CF $8,400
2 Juan Soto LEFT 0.375 0.409 0.164 38.6% 14.1% 23.9% 40.9% OF $3,900 OF $4,500 LF $9,000
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.402 0.271 0.281 42.7% 17.4% 22.2% 36.3% OF $4,200 OF $4,900 RF $9,100
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.390 0.459 0.184 37.0% 10.6% 15.0% 35.6% 3B $3,900 3B $3,800 3B $7,700
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.305 0.296 0.000 10.0% 4.2% 12.5% 25.0% 1B $2,900 2B $4,100 2B $8,200
6 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.334 0.330 0.148 33.3% 9.4% 20.2% 54.7% SS $3,700 SS $4,600 IF/OF $9,300
7 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.308 0.273 0.101 18.3% 9.0% 15.0% 44.3% 2B $2,500 2B/3B $2,900 2B $5,600
8 Spencer Kieboom RIGHT 0.345 0.481 0.040 25.0% 13.8% 17.2% 36.8% C $2,100 C $2,600 C $5,100
9 Erick Fedde RIGHT 0.173 0.000 0.000 0.0% 25.0% 75.0% 0.0% P $5,700 P $7,100 P $14,100
Team Averages 0.341 0.308 0.123 28.4% 12.3% 23.7% 35.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles