MLB Grind Down: Saturday, March 31st - Page Two
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Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Implied Run Totals
NY Yankees at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET
| NY Yankees | Toronto | ||||||||||||||
 | CC Sabathia |  | Marco Estrada | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| NYY-120 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.306 | 0.267 | 14.3% | 8.9% | 20.4% | 58.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.291 | 0.270 | 23.8% | 6.2% | 22.0% | 33.7% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.310 | 0.319 | 29.9% | 7.8% | 19.0% | 48.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.366 | 0.322 | 29.9% | 10.9% | 21.7% | 27.5% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| CC Sabathia | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $13,100 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 27 | 4.45 | 3.69 | 19.3% | 8.0% | 49.9% | 27.2% | 24.1% | |
C.C. Sabathia had a solid year in 2017 and the one takeaway I learned from last season is not to stack against him. He’s like a clone of Doug Fister where you think stacking against him will turn out great, but it ends up in heartbreak. He allowed more than 4 earned runs in just 4 of his 27 starts. In other words, he’s a master at limiting damage and generating ground balls. He’ll serve up an occasional home run but he also generally won’t implode.
Quick Breakdown: I don’t hate Sabathia as a punt option or SP2. While the Blue Jays are going to roll out a righty-heavy lineup, Sabathia has the skill set to limit damage.
| Marco Estrada | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $12,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 15 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 33 | 4.69 | 4.98 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 30.3% | 27.2% | 21.4% | |
How I feel about Sabathia is how I feel about Marco Estrada. Estrada tends to wiggle out of trouble. The biggest difference is that Sabathia generates ground balls at an extreme rate (49.9% last season) while Estrada lives in the air (50.3% FB% last season). While this number seems scary, they generally lead to just long outs. Estrada does also strike out more batters than Sabathia, but there’s always risk one of his long outs will go over the fence.
Quick Breakdown: Marco Estrada is a risky punt option. If you can live with the risks, he carries some upside as he can strikeout batters, but I would rather go elsewhere than test a powerful Yankees lineup. I’m planning to stay away.
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.359 | 0.332 | 0.191 | 31.6% | 11.1% | 18.3% | 42.3% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,900 | LF | $7,300 |
| 2 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.440 | 0.432 | 0.364 | 45.1% | 16.6% | 30.6% | 35.2% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $5,000 | RF | $9,700 |
| 3 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.391 | 0.378 | 0.326 | 37.8% | 10.6% | 26.1% | 44.4% | OF | $4,900 | OF | $5,400 | RF | $10,600 |
| 4 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.367 | 0.369 | 0.249 | 36.5% | 6.5% | 22.9% | 43.1% | C | $3,900 | C | $4,600 | C | $9,200 |
| 5 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.302 | 0.228 | 26.2% | 4.6% | 11.3% | 36.5% | SS | $3,500 | SS | $3,600 | SS | $7,600 |
| 6 | Neil Walker | SWITCH | 0.366 | 0.358 | 0.199 | 34.3% | 12.5% | 16.5% | 37.1% | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $6,400 |
| 7 | Brandon Drury | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.332 | 0.186 | 31.8% | 6.7% | 20.2% | 49.0% | 3B | $2,400 | 3B | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,900 |
| 8 | Tyler Wade | LEFT | 0.220 | 0.240 | 0.085 | 21.2% | 7.8% | 27.5% | 48.5% | 2B | $2,200 | 2B | $3,000 | SS | $5,500 |
| 9 | Tyler Austin | RIGHT | 0.193 | 0.210 | 0.074 | 33.3% | 6.9% | 41.4% | 33.3% | 1B | $2,000 | 1B | $2,700 | RF | $5,900 |
If I’m playing Yankees hitters, I’m doing it in a stack and hoping Estrada doesn’t have his stuff on Saturday and several of these flyballs go over the fence. Estrada has struggled more against right-handers and unfortunatley for Estrada, the Yankees possess several of the league’s most dangerous righties. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez and even Didi Gregorius are top options here and all own multiple homers in their careers against Estrada.
Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton
Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius
Stackability – GREEN
Toronto
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devon Travis | RIGHT | 0.423 | 0.497 | 0.290 | 29.2% | 11.4% | 20.0% | 37.5% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $6,500 |
| 2 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.427 | 0.413 | 0.400 | 42.2% | 15.0% | 21.0% | 37.5% | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $8,400 |
| 3 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.412 | 0.390 | 0.234 | 36.5% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 35.5% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $6,300 |
| 4 | Curtis Granderson | LEFT | 0.285 | 0.283 | 0.192 | 36.0% | 9.4% | 26.5% | 37.3% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,100 | CF | $5,500 |
| 5 | Yangervis Solarte | SWITCH | 0.251 | 0.291 | 0.078 | 28.7% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 47.8% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B/SS | $2,700 | 2B | $5,800 |
| 6 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.271 | 0.308 | 0.123 | 34.1% | 15.0% | 27.5% | 32.6% | C | $2,100 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,500 |
| 7 | Randal Grichuk | RIGHT | 0.279 | 0.340 | 0.194 | 40.6% | 7.5% | 27.4% | 31.9% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,100 | LF | $5,800 |
| 8 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.344 | 0.224 | 31.2% | 6.5% | 14.2% | 38.8% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $2,900 | CF | $5,700 |
| 9 | Aledmys Diaz | RIGHT | 0.265 | 0.279 | 0.055 | 21.7% | 9.7% | 16.1% | 40.0% | SS | $2,300 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $5,600 |
I know it sounds crazy, but I just don’t want to try and pick on C.C. Sabathia. Josh Donaldson is the main player I have interest in as he mashes lefties but he’s only 10-for-39 in his career against Sabathia with 2 home runs and 10 strikeouts.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson
Stackability – RED
Cleveland at Seattle – 4:10 PM ET
| Cleveland | Seattle | ||||||||||||||
 | Carlos Carrasco |  | James Paxton | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| SEA-105 | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.308 | 0.307 | 33.1% | 6.3% | 27.6% | 44.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.210 | 0.238 | 18.8% | 4.4% | 24.2% | 59.4% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.272 | 0.274 | 26.0% | 5.3% | 28.9% | 45.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.273 | 0.264 | 32.9% | 7.2% | 29.1% | 41.7% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Carlos Carrasco | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,900 | Salary: | $10,100 | Salary: | $19,300 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 32 | 3.35 | 3.29 | 28.3% | 5.8% | 45.2% | 29.3% | 19.4% | |
Carlos Carrasco is just a step below Stephen Strasburg and Jacob deGrom if you’re playing a slate that has this game on it. Carrasco was phenomenal in 2017 and finished with 226 strikeouts, good for 7th most in the majors. I try not to put too much stock into spring training numbers since pitchers are often testing new pitches, but he did finish the spring with a 7.71 ERA. The good news is he struck out 23 batters in 18 2/3 innings. So the stuff was there, but he was getting hit around pretty bad.
Quick Breakdown: Carrasco had a rough spring but his strikeout numbers were still elite. He’s an amazing tournament play and fine for cash too if you’re not concerned about his spring woes.
| James Paxton | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $8,200 | Salary: | $16,100 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 6 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | 3.45 | 2.98 | 28.3% | 6.7% | 44.9% | 30.3% | 18.0% | |
Amazingly enough, James Paxton had the same K% as Carlos Carrasco last year and a better K/9 ratio than Lance McCullers, yet he costs significantly less than his peers. He did struggle in the spring too, allowing five home runs over 16 1/3 innings, but similar to Carrasco, the strikeouts were still there. I love Paxton in all formats and while I generally don’t like playing pitchers against the Indians, the discount we get for a pitcher of his caliber is hard to pass up.
Quick Breakdown: Paxton showed elite ratios last season and is an amazing play in all formats despite a difficult matchup against the Indians.
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.376 | 0.381 | 0.224 | 41.2% | 8.2% | 13.1% | 38.8% | SS | $3,700 | SS | $4,700 | SS | $9,400 |
| 2 | Jason Kipnis | LEFT | 0.273 | 0.289 | 0.147 | 25.8% | 8.2% | 17.9% | 45.8% | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $8,100 |
| 3 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.395 | 0.399 | 0.254 | 36.0% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 41.5% | 3B | $3,900 | 2B/3B | $4,700 | IF/OF | $9,400 |
| 4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.367 | 0.399 | 0.208 | 37.8% | 19.0% | 21.7% | 43.3% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $4,500 | 1B | $8,900 |
| 5 | Yonder Alonso | LEFT | 0.290 | 0.262 | 0.236 | 36.5% | 7.5% | 25.0% | 36.5% | 1B | $2,400 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,400 |
| 6 | Brandon Guyer | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.312 | 0.108 | 21.8% | 7.8% | 21.1% | 39.5% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,900 | LF | $5,500 |
| 7 | Yan Gomes | RIGHT | 0.360 | 0.341 | 0.264 | 40.0% | 9.8% | 26.2% | 43.2% | C | $2,500 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,600 |
| 8 | Lonnie Chisenhall | LEFT | 0.419 | 0.385 | 0.170 | 35.0% | 15.0% | 16.7% | 54.1% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,700 | RF | $7,300 |
| 9 | Rajai Davis | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.306 | 0.126 | 20.4% | 8.5% | 20.0% | 45.7% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,500 | CF | $4,700 |
James Paxton is not someone I want to pick on, so I have no interest in the Indians. Paxton only allowed 9 home runs all season over 136 innings. I will note that all 9 home runs were to right-handed batters, so he’s death to lefties. Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Ramirez are fringe secondary options but I’d rather look for fantasy points elsewhere.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion (GPP), Francisco Lindor (GPP), Jose Ramirez (GPP)
Stackability – RED
Seattle
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dee Gordon | LEFT | 0.324 | 0.285 | 0.077 | 17.9% | 4.6% | 13.6% | 55.2% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,500 | 2B | $6,500 |
| 2 | Jean Segura | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.308 | 0.132 | 25.2% | 4.7% | 15.0% | 56.3% | SS | $2,600 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $6,800 |
| 3 | Robinson Cano | LEFT | 0.373 | 0.383 | 0.208 | 39.5% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 47.8% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,800 |
| 4 | Nelson Cruz | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.378 | 0.280 | 40.2% | 7.4% | 22.2% | 39.9% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $3,800 | RF | $7,400 |
| 5 | Kyle Seager | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.352 | 0.199 | 38.1% | 9.6% | 16.3% | 30.6% | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $6,400 |
| 6 | Mitch Haniger | RIGHT | 0.375 | 0.343 | 0.213 | 37.8% | 8.3% | 23.6% | 43.1% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,900 |
| 7 | Ryon Healy | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.299 | 0.171 | 35.0% | 3.5% | 24.3% | 43.9% | 1B | $2,100 | 1B | $3,000 | 3B | $5,600 |
| 8 | Mike Zunino | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.319 | 0.247 | 39.0% | 8.4% | 37.5% | 33.7% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,900 | C | $5,600 |
| 9 | Ichiro Suzuki | LEFT | 0.267 | 0.257 | 0.081 | 16.8% | 7.9% | 15.2% | 53.7% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,800 | RF | $5,400 |
On a slate this size, I’d rather not target hitters against a stud like Carlos Carrasco. If you want to get contrarian and use some Mariners bats, which I wouldn’t recommend, I would limit it to the left-handers. Of Carrasco’s 21 homers allowed in 2017, 14 of them were by lefties. This makes Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager my main options.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano (GPP), Kyle Seager (GPP)
Stackability – RED
Boston at Tampa Bay – 6:10 PM ET
| Boston | Tampa Bay | ||||||||||||||
 | Rick Porcello |  | Andrew Kittredge | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| TBD | |||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.360 | 0.345 | 41.2% | 6.8% | 20.6% | 33.1% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.322 | 0.309 | 35.7% | 16.7% | 25.0% | 33.3% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.336 | 0.314 | 35.7% | 4.2% | 20.3% | 44.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.260 | 0.260 | 34.4% | 4.8% | 19.1% | 51.6% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Rick Porcello | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | Salary: | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 9 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | Salary Rank: | |||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 33 | 4.28 | 4.65 | 20.5% | 5.4% | 39.2% | 38.3% | 17.1% | |
I won’t spend much time on this game because it only exists on the FanDuel All-Day slate. I still can’t believe Rick Porcello won the Cy Young award. He’s an option on this All-Day slate but it’s mainly because the Rays are awful and trotting out a AAA team. Porcello doesn’t strike out enough batters for my liking but he’s viable on FanDuel where he should get the win, and the win is weighted heavily over there.
Quick Breakdown: You’re mainly playing Porcello because of the chance he wins this game and limits damage against a poor Rays team. Sadly, he’s in play as your SP on FanDuel.
| Andrew Kittredge | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | Salary: | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | Salary Rank: | |||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 0 | 4.15 | 1.76 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 46.5% | 34.8% | 17.4% | |
Andrew Kittredge is an avoid at all costs. He’s been used as a reliver this spring so this likely turns into a bullpen game.
Quick Breakdown: Stay clear as Kittredge won’t see enough innings in this bullpen game.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.359 | 0.190 | 36.1% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 39.7% | OF | $3,900 | N/A | N/A | ||
| 2 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.344 | 0.349 | 0.178 | 36.6% | 9.9% | 16.9% | 37.7% | OF | $3,100 | N/A | N/A | ||
| 3 | Hanley Ramirez | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.353 | 0.182 | 34.8% | 7.9% | 20.5% | 41.7% | 1B | $2,900 | N/A | N/A | ||
| 4 | J.D. Martinez | RIGHT | 0.402 | 0.397 | 0.351 | 47.1% | 9.8% | 26.9% | 42.1% | OF | $4,200 | N/A | N/A | ||
| 5 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.316 | 0.134 | 31.8% | 8.3% | 18.9% | 47.7% | SS | $3,600 | N/A | N/A | ||
| 6 | Rafael Devers | LEFT | 0.309 | 0.336 | 0.198 | 34.1% | 6.0% | 21.9% | 48.5% | 3B | $3,200 | N/A | N/A | ||
| 7 | Eduardo Nunez | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.312 | 0.152 | 26.2% | 3.1% | 11.4% | 53.2% | 2B | $3,100 | N/A | N/A | ||
| 8 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | LEFT | 0.305 | 0.310 | 0.167 | 35.2% | 8.6% | 23.8% | 44.2% | OF | $2,300 | N/A | N/A | ||
| 9 | Christian Vazquez | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.292 | 0.104 | 26.5% | 5.2% | 19.4% | 47.0% | C | $2,100 | N/A | N/A |
Knowing this will be a bullpen game, there’s some merit to stacking the Red Sox and just hoping they demolish the relievers. My focus would be a 1-4 stack, but Rafael Devers would be a nice pivot off one of the top four guys if you need some salary savings and not deviate too far from the top-of-the-order stack as he’ll likely bat 6th.
Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Hanley Ramirez
Secondary Plays -Rafael Devers
Stackability – GREEN
Tampa Bay
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Duffy | RIGHT | 3B | $2,600 | N/A | N/A | |||||||||
| 2 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.358 | 0.304 | 0.213 | 35.5% | 8.4% | 22.1% | 43.0% | OF | $2,400 | N/A | N/A | ||
| 3 | Carlos Gomez | RIGHT | 0.362 | 0.352 | 0.236 | 41.9% | 8.3% | 29.0% | 38.7% | OF | $2,500 | N/A | N/A | ||
| 4 | C.J. Cron | RIGHT | 0.311 | 0.311 | 0.162 | 34.2% | 5.7% | 24.6% | 32.6% | 1B | $2,300 | N/A | N/A | ||
| 5 | Wilson Ramos | RIGHT | 0.295 | 0.297 | 0.200 | 32.5% | 3.8% | 17.6% | 50.4% | C | $2,000 | N/A | N/A | ||
| 6 | Denard Span | LEFT | 0.343 | 0.333 | 0.182 | 27.4% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 41.7% | OF | $2,700 | N/A | N/A | ||
| 7 | Adeiny Hechavarria | RIGHT | 0.288 | 0.296 | 0.129 | 35.5% | 3.1% | 19.3% | 50.3% | SS | $2,500 | N/A | N/A | ||
| 8 | Joey Wendle | LEFT | 0.382 | 0.361 | 0.308 | 40.0% | 7.1% | 21.4% | 50.0% | 2B | $2,000 | N/A | N/A | ||
| 9 | Rob Refsnyder | RIGHT | 0.229 | 0.281 | 0.067 | 20.8% | 3.2% | 19.4% | 60.4% | OF | $2,100 | N/A | N/A |
I have zero interest in this watered down Rays team. We can move along.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Minnesota at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
| Minnesota | Baltimore | ||||||||||||||
 | Kyle Gibson |  | Andrew Cashner | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| BAL-110 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.358 | 0.330 | 34.2% | 8.7% | 16.2% | 46.5% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.311 | 0.326 | 28.9% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 38.7% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.352 | 0.369 | 37.4% | 8.7% | 18.7% | 55.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.298 | 0.326 | 28.1% | 6.7% | 12.0% | 56.7% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Kyle Gibson | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 27 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 30 | Salary Rank: | |||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 29 | 4.67 | 5.07 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 50.8% | 35.8% | 15.4% | |
Onto the main slate we go. Kyle Gibson is not someone who should be on your DFS radar. He’s finished with a 5.07 ERA in back-to-back years and surrended at least 20 home runs in those seasons. He has a measly 17.5% K% and pitches to contact.
Quick Breakdown: Don’t use Gibson against the Orioles. This won’t end well.
| Andrew Cashner | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $5,900 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 25 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 30 | Salary Rank: | |||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 28 | 5.52 | 3.40 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 48.6% | 28.4% | 18.5% | |
I have to hand it to Andrew Cashner. He just earned himself a new 2 year, $16 million dollar deal and continues to be serviceable as a major league pitcher. His 3.40 ERA is deceiving considering his SIERA is 5.52, and his 12.2% K% is enough for me to look elsewhere as strikeouts are king in DFS.
Quick Breakdown: Cashner fits the C.C. Sabathia mold of a bend-but-not-break type player but his low strikeout rate makes me want to look elsewhere for my pitchers.
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.334 | 0.203 | 33.2% | 10.6% | 20.3% | 37.6% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $4,500 | N/A | N/A |
| 2 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.399 | 0.127 | 40.8% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 49.8% | 1B | $2,400 | 1B | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
| 3 | Miguel Sano | RIGHT | 0.346 | 0.344 | 0.223 | 45.5% | 10.6% | 37.3% | 39.6% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $4,400 | N/A | N/A |
| 4 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.377 | 0.365 | 0.268 | 34.1% | 7.4% | 17.5% | 38.0% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
| 5 | Logan Morrison | LEFT | 0.374 | 0.366 | 0.298 | 40.4% | 13.6% | 25.2% | 33.1% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $4,300 | N/A | N/A |
| 6 | Eduardo Escobar | SWITCH | 0.324 | 0.308 | 0.216 | 33.6% | 5.9% | 20.9% | 33.3% | SS | $2,200 | 3B | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
| 7 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.350 | 0.335 | 0.212 | 36.0% | 9.3% | 17.2% | 41.0% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,400 | N/A | N/A |
| 8 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.300 | 0.294 | 0.166 | 27.2% | 5.8% | 31.0% | 39.5% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,900 | N/A | N/A |
| 9 | Jason Castro | LEFT | 0.313 | 0.329 | 0.146 | 34.9% | 12.5% | 29.0% | 40.2% | C | $2,000 | C | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
Cashner pitches to contact and generates a lot of ground balls, which limits the amount of home runs against him. I honestly don’t have much interest in the Twins. I do like this offense in general but this doesn’t feel like to spot to use them. If I did, I would focus on the left-handers of Eddie Rosario and Logan Morrison, but you’re mainly just hoping they run into one. Cashner is certainly not someone I’d recommend stacking against. Maybe that’s a hot take, but that’s where I stand.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Logan Morrison (GPP), Eddie Rosario (GPP)
Stackability – RED
Baltimore
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.348 | 0.250 | 45.1% | 12.5% | 36.1% | 37.7% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,800 | N/A | N/A |
| 2 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.360 | 0.203 | 37.7% | 7.5% | 16.9% | 42.7% | SS | $4,000 | 3B/SS | $4,900 | N/A | N/A |
| 3 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.317 | 0.184 | 35.1% | 4.1% | 20.0% | 41.8% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,100 | N/A | N/A |
| 4 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.323 | 0.188 | 30.2% | 3.4% | 17.5% | 45.1% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,200 | N/A | N/A |
| 5 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.362 | 0.358 | 0.223 | 34.1% | 6.4% | 23.5% | 51.4% | OF | $2,600 | 1B/OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
| 6 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.339 | 0.176 | 40.3% | 5.6% | 29.6% | 48.7% | 3B | $2,700 | 3B/SS | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
| 7 | Pedro Alvarez | LEFT | 0.282 | 0.300 | 0.034 | 31.6% | 6.5% | 32.3% | 57.9% | OF | $2,100 | 1B/3B | $2,900 | N/A | N/A |
| 8 | Colby Rasmus | LEFT | 0.375 | 0.328 | 0.291 | 44.4% | 6.0% | 32.5% | 32.4% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
| 9 | Caleb Joseph | RIGHT | 0.287 | 0.267 | 0.135 | 25.0% | 3.5% | 26.5% | 48.2% | C | $2,500 | C | $2,700 | N/A | N/A |
Given Kyle Gibson’s propensity to serve up the longball and get hit hard, I’d expect the Orioles to be one of the more popular stacks on this main slate. Lefties and righties are in-play against Gibson. My main interest are in the top six bats, but if you want to be contrarian, a bottom-of-the-order stack is dirt cheap and carries some home run upside as well.
Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Trey Mancini, Jonathan Schoop
Secondary Plays – Pedro Alvarez, Colby Rasmus
Stackability – GREEN
Chicago Cubs at Miami – 7:10 PM ET
| Chicago Cubs | Miami | ||||||||||||||
 | Yu Darvish |  | Odrisamer Despaigne | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| CHC-200 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.333 | 0.300 | 34.5% | 7.8% | 26.9% | 44.7% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.350 | 0.350 | 25.2% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 35.5% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.260 | 0.281 | 31.6% | 7.4% | 27.6% | 36.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.246 | 0.309 | 34.8% | 7.8% | 13.8% | 40.2% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Yu Darvish | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,400 | Salary: | $12,200 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 3 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | Salary Rank: | |||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 31 | 3.71 | 3.86 | 27.3% | 7.6% | 40.7% | 33.1% | 20.5% | |
Yu Darvish headlines all pitchers on the main slate. Not only does he possess the highest strikeout numbers, he gets a dream matchup against Derek Jeter’s Miami Marlins. I’m not getting cute on the main slate – I highly recommend paying up for Darvish and working around him.
Quick Breakdown: Darvish is in a class of his own on the main slate. Nobody comes close to his 27.3% K% and the matchup is elite against a poor Marlins offense.
| Odrisamer Despaigne | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,900 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | Salary Rank: | |||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 8 | 5.72 | 4.01 | 12.2% | 9.5% | 37.6% | 29.6% | 22.5% | |
Update 11:20am EST – I just noticed that Despaigne pitched the 17th inning last night so I suppose there’s a chance they don’t pitch him tonight. If it’s a new pitcher, that may change my overall take on the Cubs so it’s something to monitor.
Odrisamer Despaigne is your classic junkballer. He’ll eat up innings for a Marlins team headed nowhere and while he’ll get hit, he’s able to limit the damage and avoid home runs. Over his past 88.2 innings in the majors, he’s only allowed 6 home runs. He doesn’t generate many strikeouts and is by no means an option, but I suspect he’s better than we actually think he is.
Quick Breakdown: Don’t use Odrisamer Despaigne as he doesn’t strike anybody out, but he’s lasted this long in the majors for a reason and may be better than we give him credit for.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Happ | SWITCH | 0.357 | 0.349 | 0.286 | 36.1% | 11.3% | 32.3% | 41.8% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,800 | N/A | N/A |
| 2 | Kris Bryant | RIGHT | 0.397 | 0.367 | 0.249 | 31.9% | 12.6% | 20.5% | 37.7% | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $5,300 | N/A | N/A |
| 3 | Anthony Rizzo | LEFT | 0.382 | 0.400 | 0.230 | 34.4% | 14.3% | 12.7% | 39.7% | 1B | $4,800 | 1B | $5,200 | N/A | N/A |
| 4 | Willson Contreras | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.345 | 0.214 | 36.1% | 8.5% | 25.1% | 53.4% | C | $3,300 | C | $4,800 | N/A | N/A |
| 5 | Kyle Schwarber | LEFT | 0.343 | 0.361 | 0.276 | 38.4% | 11.1% | 29.9% | 38.7% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,600 | N/A | N/A |
| 6 | Addison Russell | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.297 | 0.177 | 32.7% | 5.7% | 23.3% | 39.2% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
| 7 | Jason Heyward | LEFT | 0.320 | 0.319 | 0.139 | 26.6% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 48.0% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,600 | N/A | N/A |
| 8 | Javier Baez | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.286 | 0.186 | 29.8% | 5.9% | 29.3% | 50.4% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $4,300 | N/A | N/A |
| 9 | Yu Darvish | RIGHT | 0.131 | 0.098 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 8.3% | 75.0% | 100.0% | P | $9,400 | P | $12,200 | N/A | N/A |
I’m really curious to see how the industry treats the Cubs. Vegas has them pegged with the highest implied team total on the main slate, but the Cubs were the chalk stack on Friday and generated just 1 run in a 2-1 loss to the Marlins and superstar Caleb Smith. There’s two ways to approach this: 1) the Cubs rebound and pounce on Odrisamer Despaigne, or 2) Odrisamer Despaigne does Odrisamer Despaigne things and limits the Cubs, destroying all the Cubs stacks in the DFS world.
In tournaments, I have no problem with a Cubs fade if we start to hear their ownership will be through the roof. I’d rather pivot to other stacks on this slate at lower ownership or perhaps just play some one-offs from the Cubs. But if the thought of fading the Cubs is too hard to handle, I completely understand. I personally prefer the Orioles’ spot when factoring in price and ownership.
I’m going to list Ian Happ, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo as elite plays, with Willson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber as secondary plays. I’m also going to list this as a Green stackable opportunity because this Marlins team is so bad that they could easily get to the bullpen when Despaigne comes out. But in tournaments I’m completely okay with a fade? Could it come back to haunt me? Of course, but it’s a personal stand I plan to take.
Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo
Secondary Plays – Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber
Stackability – GREEN
Miami
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lewis Brinson | RIGHT | 0.145 | 0.246 | 0.063 | 30.0% | 10.8% | 32.4% | 60.0% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,200 | N/A | N/A |
| 2 | Derek Dietrich | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.315 | 0.190 | 34.5% | 8.0% | 21.2% | 34.9% | OF | $2,700 | 2B/OF | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
| 3 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.313 | 0.157 | 28.5% | 3.9% | 19.6% | 52.2% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,000 | N/A | N/A |
| 4 | Justin Bour | LEFT | 0.384 | 0.384 | 0.252 | 42.3% | 11.2% | 19.9% | 40.1% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,500 | N/A | N/A |
| 5 | Brian Anderson | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.338 | 0.145 | 31.6% | 13.8% | 27.7% | 55.3% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $3,000 | N/A | N/A |
| 6 | Cameron Maybin | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.312 | 0.165 | 24.5% | 12.9% | 21.2% | 57.9% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,100 | N/A | N/A |
| 7 | Miguel Rojas | RIGHT | 0.323 | 0.324 | 0.071 | 18.8% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 52.0% | SS | $2,200 | 2B/SS | $2,800 | N/A | N/A |
| 8 | Chad Wallach | RIGHT | 0.097 | 0.104 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 44.4% | 40.0% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,200 | N/A | N/A |
| 9 | Odrisamer Despaigne | RIGHT | 0.097 | 0.115 | 0.000 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 22.2% | 91.7% | P | $5,500 | P | $4,900 | N/A | N/A |
I have no plans to play guys against Yu Darvish. I know it would be contrarian to play a low-owned guy against Darvish but I’d rather home run hunt elsewhere, especially since this Marlins team is so poor.