MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 29th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-09-29 16:59:38

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Boston
			Lance Lynn							Nathan Eovaldi
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.366	0.356	36.7%	0.89	16.0%	51.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.324	0.318	32.7%	1.20	20.0%	45.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.300	0.289	34.2%	0.78	28.2%	47.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.267	0.284	32.7%	1.12	23.4%	45.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Lance Lynn
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,900	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:		$11,700
	Salary Rank:			20 of 30	Salary Rank:			23 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30
	2017	33	4.85	3.43	19.7%	10.1%	44.0%	29.2%	21.1%	91.8	9.0%
	2018	29	4.28	4.80	22.8%	10.9%	49.8%	35.3%	20.9%	93.2	10.1%
	L14	2	3.31	1.80	26.8%	7.3%	51.9%	29.6%	33.3%	93.3	12.1%

Lance Lynn has a solid enough 22.8% strikeout rate on the season, but his walk rate nearing 11% is troublesome. The right-hander has generally been fairly wobbly since donning the Yankee pinstripes, and lately they have given him quite the short leash. Lynn also gets a park downgrade today going into Fenway to take on the Red Sox, who may be the best offense in all of baseball. I’m not sure you need me to tell you this, but fading Lynn today is probably a good idea.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lynn against Boston.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Nathan Eovaldi
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:			$6,600	Salary:		$13,000
	Salary Rank:			19 of 30	Salary Rank:			19 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30

	2018	20	3.78	3.88	21.7%	4.5%	45.2%	32.7%	19.9%	97.2	10.8%
	L14	2	2.29	0.82	36.6%	4.9%	47.8%	13.0%	34.8%	97.9	12.6%

Nathan Eovaldi has pitched well this season. The right-hander has a 21.7% strikeout rate between Tampa Bay and Boston, and his 3.78 SIERA and 3.88 ERA make sense together. Like Lynn, Eovaldi doesn’t have the longest leash. He was lifted after throwing just 84 pitches in his last start despite the fact that he was rolling. The Red Sox have nothing to play for, so they’re presumably being careful in anticipation of the postseason. The Yankees have a loaded lineup on the other side of this matchup, but they also have a collective 22.3% K-rate this season against right-handed pitching. I’m not a huge fan of Eovaldi in this spot, but he’s the pitcher you want if you want an arm from this game. On a big slate, though, he’s an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: I like Eovaldi better than Lynn, but that’s not saying a whole lot.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are still trying to clinch home field advantage in the Wild Card Game, so they’re one of the few teams with something left to play for today. Nathan Eovaldi isn’t necessarily someone we want to go out of our way to attack, but he has allowed a .324 wOBA on the year to left-handed hitters. He’s been tougher on righties, so I’d start with the lefties like Aaron Hicks or Didi Gregorius here. Fenway Park is far better for right-handed power, so I’m still fine with the likes of Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton and Andrew McCutchen, especially in GPPs. The Yankees make for a viable stack despite the suboptimal matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.366	0.159	43.6%	14.8%	21.1%	41.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,500	RF	$9,100
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.395	0.241	48.2%	12.8%	31.0%	44.1%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,200	RF	$9,900
3	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.387	0.199	37.0%	16.8%	18.8%	41.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$5,100	CF	$9,900
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.326	0.208	37.5%	9.5%	31.3%	46.4%	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,000
5	Luke Voit	RIGHT	0.468	0.315	47.5%	12.7%	28.4%	35.0%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,000
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.347	0.258	37.6%	9.1%	12.1%	36.4%	SS	$4,000	SS	$5,400	SS	$10,400
7	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.348	0.221	37.2%	3.3%	16.0%	45.7%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,600	3B	$9,200
8	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.331	0.197	34.7%	10.7%	25.8%	45.3%	C	$3,300	C	$4,200	C	$8,000
9	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.352	0.166	35.6%	8.1%	23.0%	34.9%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,200
	Team Averages		0.369	0.218	39.9%	10.9%	23.1%	41.1%

Elite Plays – Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

The best way to attack Lance Lynn has been with left-handed hitters. Lynn has always struggled with lefties, and 2018 has been no exception. He has yielded a .366 wOBA so far this season to LHBs, which puts lefties like Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers into play. Mitch Moreland is also fine if he cracks the lineup. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are guys I’ll almost never talk you out of playing, especially when they’re at home. Guys like Eduardo Nunez and Ian Kinsler are fine cheap options, but not core plays in the least.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.447	0.272	44.3%	11.6%	15.4%	33.2%	OF	$4,900	OF	$6,100	RF	$11,200
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.392	0.185	29.1%	12.1%	13.2%	39.8%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,300	LF	$9,700
3	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.450	0.319	44.8%	11.4%	22.0%	43.9%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,500	RF	$10,300
4	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.374	0.254	36.9%	7.0%	16.9%	46.4%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,600	SS	$9,000
5	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.334	0.223	36.2%	8.3%	24.2%	44.0%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,500	3B	$9,000
6	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.403	0.204	36.3%	11.5%	21.3%	39.9%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,400
7	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.324	0.171	29.6%	7.9%	12.3%	36.9%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,700
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.286	0.077	28.4%	3.6%	14.9%	40.9%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	C	$5,800
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.378	0.183	42.6%	9.8%	22.6%	38.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,200
	Team Averages		0.376	0.210	36.5%	9.2%	18.1%	40.4%

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Mitch Moreland, Ian Kinsler, Rafael Devers

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
St. Louis								Chicago Cubs
			Miles Mikolas							Cole Hamels
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-150
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.315	0.326	36.3%	1.06	16.5%	45.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.300	0.319	32.6%	0.55	23.0%	58.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.227	0.268	27.3%	0.40	19.8%	56.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	0.356	44.1%	1.61	23.2%	42.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Miles Mikolas
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,500	Salary:			$9,100	Salary:		$17,600
	Salary Rank:			10 of 30	Salary Rank:			7 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30

	2018	31	3.91	2.94	18.0%	3.7%	50.3%	32.5%	18.7%	93.9	9.5%
	L14	2	2.69	2.25	30.4%	2.2%	46.7%	33.3%	23.3%	94.1	14.5%

The Cardinals are playing for their playoff lives today, which is worth noting. Miles Mikolas has been steady-if-unremarkable from a fantasy perspective this season. The right-hander has a middling strikeout rate of 18%, but he doesn’t walk anybody and he is occasionally in play due to the fact that he rarely gets blown up and he pitches pretty deep into games. Today Mikolas gets a tough matchup with a Cubs team trying to stave off the Brewers in the NL Central. Targeting the Cubs isn’t a strategy I love to begin with, especially with a guy that doesn’t carry a whole lot of strikeout upside. Mikolas is far from the worst play on the board, but I’d reserve him for large-field GPPs.

Quick Breakdown: Mikolas is fine as a potentially contrarian option in tournaments, but that’s about it.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Cole Hamels
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,700	Salary:			$8,800	Salary:		$17,300
	Salary Rank:			9 of 30	Salary Rank:			9 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30
	2017	24	4.90	4.20	17.1%	8.6%	47.5%	36.0%	13.7%	92.0	9.7%
	2018	31	4.01	3.87	23.2%	8.1%	45.1%	42.1%	17.0%	92.0	12.0%
	L14	3	3.79	5.30	22.5%	5.0%	42.9%	41.1%	17.9%	92.6	11.6%

Cole Hamels has pitched well since joining the Cubs, save for one miserable outing a couple of starts ago in Arizona. The veteran lefty has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate on the season, while his 4.01 SIERA isn’t much worse than his 3.87 ERA. Hamels is still a lefty with a fairly wide split, and today he’ll be facing a Cardinals lineup full of right-handed hitters. He has also allowed a hard contact rate over 42% and 29 home runs on the season. There are better spots to be deploying Hamels.

Quick Breakdown: I’d fade Hamels against the righty-heavy Cardinals.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Hamels is still a respectable pitcher, so he’s not someone I want to go out of my way to pick on. Still, he has yielded a .335 wOBA with 27 homers on the season against right-handed hitters. Marcell Ozuna looks like the Cardinal hitter to prioritize here, while Paul DeJong, Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina, Harrison Bader and Jedd Gyorko are secondary right-handed bats to consider. Matt Carpenter will also be fairly contrarian in the lefty-lefty matchup. I don’t hate a STL stack in tournaments given Hamels’ home run problems.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.376	0.237	51.8%	16.0%	23.5%	37.4%	1B	$3,900	1B/3B	$4,700	3B	$9,400
2	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.398	0.145	40.0%	10.6%	17.4%	43.6%	OF	$3,600	1B/OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,200
3	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.296	0.150	37.7%	11.7%	28.3%	26.1%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,500
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.411	0.224	46.9%	6.8%	15.1%	46.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,200
5	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.430	0.223	44.9%	11.9%	15.6%	44.9%	3B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,900	3B	$7,700
6	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.394	0.209	45.2%	5.9%	14.3%	30.1%	C	$2,900	C	$4,000	C	$7,400
7	Harrison Bader	RIGHT	0.330	0.235	43.4%	8.3%	25.8%	32.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,400
8	Yairo Munoz	RIGHT	0.333	0.207	38.3%	13.5%	24.0%	45.8%	OF	$2,500	2B/SS	$3,600	SS	$7,300
9	Miles Mikolas	RIGHT	0.186	0.056	27.3%	0.0%	47.6%	25.0%	P	$8,500	P	$9,100	P	$17,600
	Team Averages		0.350	0.187	41.7%	9.4%	23.5%	36.8%

Elite Plays – Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – Yadier Molina, Jedd Gyorko, Jose Martinez, Paul DeJong, Matt Carpenter

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw Miles Mikolas, a respectable right-hander that doesn’t miss many bats. The Lizard King has allowed a .315 wOBA to lefties so far this season, while 12 of the 16 homers he’s allowed have also come off the bats of LHBs. As usual, Anthony Rizzo is the top lefty to consider from the Cubs side. Daniel Murphy is also an elite play, while the power bats of Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ are viable in tournaments. Javier Baez and Kris Bryant are playable from the right side, though I wouldn’t go out of my way to cram them in.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.375	0.189	28.5%	5.5%	9.9%	33.2%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,400
2	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.356	0.156	33.7%	11.8%	12.6%	47.7%	OF	$3,000	2B/OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,300
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.399	0.207	34.1%	12.3%	9.9%	36.8%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,400
4	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.329	0.270	35.9%	3.7%	27.8%	46.5%	SS	$3,900	2B/SS	$4,900	2B	$8,900
5	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.338	0.139	29.1%	9.0%	11.1%	45.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,400
6	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.355	0.137	28.8%	11.0%	21.3%	36.5%	3B	$3,700	3B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
7	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.292	0.127	27.7%	8.0%	20.9%	55.1%	C	$2,700	C	$3,100	IF/OF	$5,900
8	Cole Hamels	LEFT	0.183	0.158	22.2%	4.8%	52.4%	57.1%	P	$8,700	P	$8,800	P	$17,300
9	David Bote	RIGHT	0.346	0.155	36.3%	7.7%	27.5%	58.2%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,400
	Team Averages		0.330	0.171	30.7%	8.2%	21.5%	46.3%

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Ian Happ, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston at Baltimore – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Houston								Baltimore
			Justin Verlander							Dylan Bundy
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-235							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.256	0.221	27.7%	1.30	39.1%	29.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.399	0.388	35.3%	1.97	18.0%	31.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.266	0.278	30.1%	1.13	30.5%	28.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.326	0.288	33.9%	2.25	31.1%	36.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Justin Verlander
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$12,400	Salary:			$11,900	Salary:		$23,000
	Salary Rank:			1 of 30	Salary Rank:			1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2017	33	4.05	3.36	25.8%	8.5%	33.5%	34.5%	17.5%	95.2	10.7%
	2018	33	2.67	2.60	34.5%	4.4%	28.6%	29.1%	19.9%	95.1	14.3%
	L14	2	1.23	0.69	48.9%	2.2%	20.0%	19.1%	14.3%	95.0	18.1%

Justin Verlander has struck out at least 11 hitters in 3 straight starts and 4 of his last 5. The veteran threw 103 pitches across 6 shutout innings against the Angels in his last start, but I’d imagine the Astros will take a cautious approach with him today considering they have nothing left to play for. I would expect him to be at least somewhat limited today, which obviously makes him less appealing than usual considering he’s priced at a premium. Verlander still has enough upside to consider in GPPs considering his great matchup today against the Orioles, but the options just below him are also stellar plays on this slate. I wouldn’t necessarily talk you out of Verlander, but I don’t think you need to pay all the way up for him.

Quick Breakdown: Verlander is an elite play, but the notion that he may be limited has me thinking he’s an unnecessary spend.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Dylan Bundy
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,600	Salary:			$5,200	Salary:		$10,000
	Salary Rank:			23 of 30	Salary Rank:			26 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30
	2017	28	4.45	4.24	21.8%	7.3%	32.8%	36.5%	17.6%	92.2	11.4%
	2018	30	3.97	5.49	24.4%	7.3%	33.7%	34.7%	15.3%	91.6	12.6%
	L14	2	4.02	5.59	25.0%	9.1%	39.3%	24.1%	20.7%	91.4	14.4%

Bundy has a gross 5.49 ERA this season, but his 3.98 SIERA is far more palatable. The right-hander has a strong strikeout rate over 24% and his walk rate of 7.3% isn’t egregious. Bundy’s problem has been home runs. He’s been taken deep a whopping 39 times this season, which “leads” baseball. The Astros have been rolling with a pretty standard lineup over the last couple of days, which isn’t something that bodes all that well for Bundy. That said, he’s incredibly cheap today, and he has enough strikeout upside to easily pay off that price tag. I’ll obviously have even more interest if Houston rolls with a watered-down version of their lineup today. I don’t think you need to risk it on a single-pitcher site, but Bundy makes sense as a high-risk, high-reward type of SP2 in tournaments. Keep an eye on the Astros’ lineup.

Quick Breakdown: As gross as it sounds, I have interest in Bundy as a punt SP2, especially if the Astros run out a lesser lineup.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Dylan Bundy has allowed a .399 wOBA to lefties this season compared to a .326 mark against right-handed bats. 22 of those 39 homers have also come via RHBs. If the Astros post their usual lineup today, you can certainly stack this team given the potential for a dinger parade at Bundy’s expense. Hitters of either handedness are in play, so Alex Bregman, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Tyler White and Carlos Correa are stackable. Brian McCann, Marwin Gonzalez, Tony Kemp, Kyle Tucker and Josh Reddick are the lefties to consider if they crack the lineup. This isn’t a glorious spot for the Astros considering Bundy is still a decent pitcher, but you can stack them for the HR potential.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.341	0.155	31.5%	10.2%	18.2%	50.3%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,600	RF	$9,200
2	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.351	0.144	31.6%	9.1%	14.0%	48.8%	2B	$4,200	2B	$4,800	2B	$8,900
3	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.399	0.247	36.4%	13.8%	12.3%	35.1%	3B	$4,500	3B/SS	$4,900	3B	$8,800
4	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.337	0.165	36.6%	11.4%	23.7%	43.0%	OF	$3,300	OF/SS	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,000
5	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.286	0.119	29.3%	3.3%	10.6%	48.4%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,900	1B	$9,200
6	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.309	0.175	28.1%	9.9%	24.0%	45.5%	SS	$3,700	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,300
7	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.339	0.264	33.9%	9.1%	16.2%	42.6%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,600
8	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.305	0.113	31.4%	11.3%	16.1%	35.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,200
9	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.262	0.132	28.0%	3.7%	24.3%	40.1%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	C	$5,800
	Team Averages		0.325	0.168	31.9%	9.1%	17.7%	43.3%

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, George Springer, Marwin Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Josh Reddick, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann, Tony Kemp, Kyle Tucker, Tyler White

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

Today the Orioles draw Justin Verlander followed by an elite bullpen. Verlander will allow home runs, so a guy like Adam Jones or Trey Mancini could be worth a look in GPPs. Otherwise, I don’t see much appeal in the Orioles.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cedric Mullins	LEFT	0.299	0.188	27.1%	7.3%	13.8%	51.1%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,700
2	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.289	0.115	29.2%	8.7%	26.2%	58.5%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,500
3	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.372	0.194	38.2%	7.1%	24.1%	49.0%	OF	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,300
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.327	0.149	31.3%	4.4%	17.1%	43.6%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
5	DJ Stewart	LEFT	0.300	0.333	33.3%	9.4%	21.9%	33.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,600
6	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.303	0.128	32.3%	5.7%	24.6%	46.3%	SS	$2,400	3B/SS	$3,100	SS	$5,700
7	Renato Nunez	RIGHT	0.308	0.184	28.4%	6.8%	23.6%	39.8%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,400
8	Steve Wilkerson	SWITCH	0.231	0.120	19.1%	10.7%	14.3%	52.4%	2B	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,600	2B	$4,600
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.271	0.126	26.7%	3.3%	25.0%	43.4%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,500
	Team Averages		0.300	0.171	29.5%	7.0%	21.2%	46.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Trey Mancini

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
LA Dodgers								San Francisco
			Clayton Kershaw							Dereck Rodriguez
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-215							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.292	0.303	37.1%	1.59	25.0%	35.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.291	0.312	41.4%	0.51	19.7%	37.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.263	0.286	35.7%	0.81	23.8%	52.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.264	0.298	36.8%	0.57	17.9%	41.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Clayton Kershaw
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,200	Salary:			$9,200	Salary:		$18,000
	Salary Rank:			4 of 30	Salary Rank:			6 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2017	27	3.04	2.31	29.8%	4.4%	47.9%	27.4%	23.5%	92.7	14.1%
	2018	25	3.43	2.53	24.0%	4.6%	48.5%	36.0%	20.5%	90.9	11.1%
	L14	2	5.20	2.77	16.7%	11.1%	44.7%	38.5%	10.3%	90.5	8.8%

The Dodgers can clinch a playoff berth with a win or a Cardinals loss today. Obviously, they’d prefer to win and try to narrow the gap on Colorado. Quite frankly, Clayton Kershaw hasn’t been the same elite pitcher we’ve grown used to seeing this season. The lefty still has a solid strikeout rate of 24%, and his 3.44 SIERA is still decent. That said, that’s the highest SIERA he’s had since 2010. Kershaw still keeps the ball on the ground at a decent clip and he gets a park upgrade today going into San Francisco. He’ll also be facing a watered-down version of the Giants that looks more like a Triple-A lineup these days. Kershaw is also the cheapest he’s been all season, which makes him an easy play.

Quick Breakdown: Kershaw is an elite option in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Dereck Rodriguez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,100	Salary:			$6,200	Salary:		$11,700
	Salary Rank:			12 of 30	Salary Rank:			21 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30

	2018	18	4.47	2.50	18.7%	7.0%	39.8%	38.9%	12.6%	91.4	8.8%
	L14	2	5.35	3.75	13.7%	7.8%	35.0%	37.5%	2.5%	90.4	8.9%

We finally saw a little bit of regression from Dereck Rodriguez in his last start. The rookie has an excellent 2.50 ERA on the campaign, but his 4.47 SIERA tells quite a different story. Rodriguez has a middling strikeout rate just south of 19% and he’s allowed hard hits at a 38.9% clip. His fly ball tendency plays well at AT&T Park, but today he gets a tough matchup against a loaded Dodgers offense. Rodriguez is affordable, but I think I’d still prefer to take the discount (and potential indigestion) that comes with Bundy instead. Rodriguez has pretty limited upside in this spot.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez is an easy fade against the Dodgers.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

We know Dave Roberts loves to play matchups, so some of the guys that start today’s game are unlikely to finish it. Obviously, that makes things tricky from a DFS perspective. I’d expect plenty of lefties in the L.A. lineup today against the right-hander. AT&T Park isn’t a fun place to hit, but Max Muncy, Yasmani Grandal, Cody Bellinger, and Joc Pederson all have plenty of power upside. Justin Turner and Manny Machado are the right-handers I’d consider here. Most of the Dodgers are also cheaper than we’re used to seeing, which makes them more appealing. I don’t love the stack here, but I think you can pick your spots with a few Dodger bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.359	0.289	43.9%	9.7%	19.7%	39.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,200
2	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.392	0.194	41.1%	8.8%	11.4%	32.4%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,400
3	Max Muncy	LEFT	0.415	0.317	47.2%	18.1%	26.3%	36.5%	1B	$4,000	1B/3B	$4,700	1B	$9,000
4	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.376	0.242	38.8%	8.9%	17.5%	39.9%	SS	$4,400	SS	$4,500	3B	$9,100
5	Cody Bellinger	LEFT	0.344	0.236	39.0%	11.8%	23.3%	39.6%	OF	$3,700	1B/OF	$4,300	1B	$8,000
6	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.393	0.258	41.4%	8.1%	18.3%	41.8%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,000
7	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.371	0.242	39.4%	12.6%	21.8%	40.7%	C	$3,300	C	$4,000	C	$7,200
8	Kike Hernandez	RIGHT	0.353	0.237	33.3%	11.4%	18.4%	34.2%	OF	$2,500	2B/OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,700
9	Clayton Kershaw	LEFT	0.199	0.032	20.8%	8.3%	25.0%	75.0%	P	$11,200	P	$9,200	P	$18,000
	Team Averages		0.356	0.227	38.3%	10.9%	20.2%	42.2%

Elite Plays – Max Muncy, Yasmani Grandal, Justin Turner, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, Yasiel Puig

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

San Francisco

The Giants have a bad lineup to begin with and today they’ll be taking their hacks against Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw hasn’t been as dominant this season, but he’s still not a pitcher I want to be picking on, especially with a bunch of weak hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.245	0.140	29.7%	5.1%	19.4%	56.8%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,400
2	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.287	0.060	29.2%	7.3%	4.6%	53.7%	2B	$2,400	2B	$2,800	2B	$5,800
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.378	0.219	44.3%	5.5%	14.5%	43.5%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,300
4	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.362	0.220	48.8%	6.0%	25.0%	30.0%	C	$2,600	C	$3,200	C	$6,600
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.336	0.162	34.7%	5.4%	19.8%	40.1%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,800
6	Aramis Garcia	RIGHT	0.207	0.188	28.6%	0.0%	56.3%	14.3%	C	$2,700	1B/C	$3,100	C	$5,600
7	Austin Slater	RIGHT	0.275	0.039	38.9%	5.8%	26.7%	63.0%	OF	$2,500	1B/OF	$3,000	LF	$5,900
8	Gorkys Hernandez	RIGHT	0.308	0.181	37.4%	6.4%	25.0%	41.7%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,800
9	Dereck Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.121	0.100	25.0%	0.0%	38.5%	60.0%	P	$8,100	P	$6,200	P	$11,700
	Team Averages		0.280	0.145	35.2%	4.6%	25.5%	44.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 4:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Cincinnati
			Jameson Taillon							Michael Lorenzen
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-125							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.321	0.327	31.0%	0.97	19.7%	42.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.358	0.364	41.3%	0.92	19.2%	47.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.260	0.264	28.0%	0.88	25.9%	51.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.279	0.304	29.6%	0.59	13.9%	51.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jameson Taillon
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,800	Salary:			$8,800	Salary:		$17,000
	Salary Rank:			6 of 30	Salary Rank:			9 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30
	2017	25	4.24	4.44	21.3%	7.8%	47.3%	29.6%	22.1%	95.3	8.2%
	2018	31	3.79	3.16	22.6%	6.0%	46.8%	29.6%	19.0%	95.2	10.6%
	L14	2	3.20	0.64	30.2%	7.6%	45.5%	9.1%	18.2%	94.7	13.0%

Jameson Taillon has been downright dominant of late. The right-hander hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in a start since August 14 and he’s quietly put together a strong overall campaign. The righty carries a 22.6% strikeout rate and 3.80 SIERA into today’s start in Cincinnati. Taillon has kept the hard contact under 30% and his ground ball rate of nearly 47% is solid. He gets a park downgrade today, though, and the Reds lineup on the other side isn’t an awful one. I think Taillon is an elite tournament pivot on what should be a far more chalky Clayton Kershaw in the same price range, but that’s the extent of my interest.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is a viable Kershaw pivot in GPPs, but my overall interest is minimal.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Michael Lorenzen
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$4,500	Salary:		$9,400
	Salary Rank:			30 of 30	Salary Rank:			29 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30
	2017	0	3.84	4.45	22.2%	9.4%	54.6%	26.8%	22.6%	96.4	10.5%
	2018	2	4.56	3.35	16.2%	10.0%	49.6%	34.2%	18.8%	95.1	6.9%
	L14	2	4.99	3.86	9.5%	9.5%	63.3%	21.9%	18.8%	95.1	7.3%

Michael Lorenzen has spent most of the season pitching out of the bullpen and mashing dongs as a pinch-hitter. 44 of his 46 appearances have come out of the ‘pen, though he started his last couple of outings. The right-hander hasn’t gotten past the fourth inning in either start, and it’s safe to say he’s still not fully stretched out. He’s also not a big strikeout guy to begin with. He’s cheap, but there’s a reason for that.

Quick Breakdown: Lorenzen doesn’t have the upside to warrant serious consideration.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Lorenzen has allowed a .358 wOBA this season to left-handed hitters, and the Pirates offense gets a big park boost today. Unfortunately, there aren’t many lefties to love in this lineup. Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson and Colin Moran are likely the best lefties to consider. Adam Frazier is also passable, especially if he’s hitting leadoff. Kevin Kramer isn’t great, but he’s also a lefty and he costs you basically nothing. Starling Marte and Francisco Cervelli are also playable despite not having the platoon advantage against Lorenzen. I like the Pirates as a cheap stack with plenty of upside today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.345	0.201	34.3%	9.5%	13.1%	50.0%	2B	$3,200	2B/OF	$4,900	IF/OF	$8,900
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.331	0.171	32.2%	5.0%	17.5%	50.2%	OF	$3,600	OF	$5,200	CF	$10,000
3	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.366	0.147	33.7%	13.8%	16.5%	50.7%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,400
4	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.368	0.172	33.2%	11.0%	20.6%	39.8%	C	$3,300	C	$4,200	C	$8,400
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.359	0.195	37.2%	4.0%	13.4%	34.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,000	LF	$9,600
6	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.348	0.133	32.6%	8.0%	16.5%	44.9%	3B	$2,500	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,600
7	Kevin Kramer	LEFT	0.210	0.000	58.3%	6.7%	53.3%	8.3%	3B	$2,000	2B/3B	$3,000	2B	$5,500
8	Kevin Newman	RIGHT	0.217	0.015	16.3%	2.8%	26.8%	57.1%	SS	$2,200	2B/SS	$3,800	SS	$7,400
9	Jameson Taillon	RIGHT	0.120	0.024	17.9%	0.0%	36.4%	70.8%	P	$9,800	P	$8,800	P	$17,000
	Team Averages		0.296	0.118	32.9%	6.8%	23.8%	45.2%

Elite Plays – Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Adam Frazier, Corey Dickerson, Colin Moran

Secondary Plays – Francisco Cervelli, Kevin Kramer

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Cincinnati

I respect Jameson Taillon, but most of the Reds are too cheap and Great American Ballpark is a great park for power. Taillon has yielded a .321 wOBA and 10 home runs to lefties, so let’s start there. Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett and Scott Schebler are elite options, while Tucker Barnhart is a playable catcher punt. I don’t think the righties are out of play, which means I like Jose Peraza and Eugenio Suarez here. Mason Williams is another cheap lefty, while Billy Hamilton always has upside thanks to his wheels. A Cincinnati stack is viable, especially if they’ll be somewhat contrarian.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.347	0.201	38.2%	10.4%	25.3%	49.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.305	0.133	30.4%	4.9%	11.7%	34.2%	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,700
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.439	0.146	40.4%	18.8%	14.8%	34.2%	1B	$3,900	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,800
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.340	0.198	39.3%	6.9%	18.7%	40.0%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,400
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.365	0.220	45.6%	9.1%	24.3%	38.2%	3B	$3,700	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,700
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.325	0.120	38.6%	9.9%	15.5%	42.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,500
7	Mason Williams	LEFT	0.289	0.122	48.7%	5.7%	20.8%	49.3%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000	RF	$5,900
8	Michael Lorenzen	RIGHT	0.331	0.500	35.7%	4.5%	31.8%	41.7%	P	$5,500	P	$4,500	P	$9,400
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.245	0.073	17.7%	8.2%	22.3%	41.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,600
	Team Averages		0.332	0.190	37.2%	8.7%	20.6%	41.1%

Elite Plays – Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto, Scott Schebler

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza, Eugenio Suarez, Tucker Barnhart, Mason Williams, Billy Hamilton

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 29th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Houston at Baltimore – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

LA Dodgers at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 4:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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