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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 8th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-09-08 19:50:16

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Miami at Pittsburgh – 1:05 PM ET

Miami Pittsburgh
Article Image Wei-Yin Chen Article Image Ivan Nova
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-145 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.252 0.274 35.8% 1.40 28.6% 48.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.383 31.3% 1.59 11.2% 42.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.330 0.309 31.4% 1.32 16.4% 34.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.334 34.4% 1.49 20.7% 49.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Wei-Yin Chen
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 5 4.61 3.82 18.9% 6.8% 36.6% 29.9% 24.7% 90.9 8.7%
2018 22 4.67 4.64 18.9% 8.2% 37.2% 32.2% 16.4% 91.2 8.3%
L14 2 2.83 0.64 31.5% 3.7% 28.6% 25.7% 22.9% 91.4 10.2%

Wei-Yin Chen has been one of the more volatile starters in baseball this season. The veteran has a 1.77 ERA in 12 home starts compared to a 9.35 ERA in 10 starts on the road. His overall 4.68 SIERA is mediocre, while he carries an 18.9% strikeout rate into today’s start on the road in Pittsburgh. While it’s not as friendly as Marlins Park, PNC Park is also a nice place to pitch, and it’s a place in which his fly ball tendencies shouldn’t get him into too much trouble. The Pirates lineup on the other side today isn’t all that scary, but they don’t strike out much. The Bucs have a 21.6% K-rate as a team this season against left-handed pitching, which is the 10th-lowest mark in the league.

Quick Breakdown: Chen isn’t really on my radar today against the low-strikeout Pirates.

Ivan Nova
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $5,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 26 of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 4.45 4.14 16.7% 4.6% 45.7% 34.8% 16.6% 92.8 8.4%
2018 25 4.45 4.35 16.0% 4.8% 45.5% 32.8% 17.2% 93.0 8.6%
L14 2 4.68 5.59 12.5% 5.0% 50.0% 24.2% 15.2% 92.5 8.1%

Ivan Nova has a 4.36 ERA compared to a 4.46 SIERA. The right-hander doesn’t miss many bats (16% K-rate), instead relying more on soft-hit ground balls to get his outs. Nova has kept the hard contact down to a manageable 32.8% on the year, while his ground ball rate is north of 45%. He’s allowed 24 homers in 25 starts, but the Marlins offense opposing him today doesn’t have much in terms of power. Nova isn’t a fun roster, but he’s cheap and he’s facing a weak offense in a pitcher-friendly park. He’s my preferred pitching target in this game.

Quick Breakdown: Nova is a solid cheap option against the Marlins.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Nova has always been a guy we can attack with left-handed hitters, and this season has been no different. He’s allowed a .350 wOBA on the year to LHBs. Unfortunately, the Marlins don’t have many good ones. Derek Dietrich would’ve been the best play, but he isn’t in the lineup today. Neither is J.T. Realmuto from the right side. The only Marlins hitter even remotely on my radar is Lewis Brinson, who is priced under $3,000 on DraftKings. You can play him if you need a punt. Otherwise, Miami doesn’t stand out.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rafael Ortega LEFT 0.336 0.049 36.4% 7.6% 9.1% 44.4% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
2 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.328 0.124 36.4% 6.9% 18.8% 49.5% 2B $3,000 2B $4,100 N/A N/A
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.370 0.218 39.2% 6.9% 17.5% 42.4% C $3,500 C $5,100 N/A N/A
4 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.325 0.151 37.5% 6.3% 23.2% 39.3% OF $3,100 1B/OF $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.354 0.120 38.9% 7.7% 17.0% 53.1% 3B $2,900 3B/OF $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.294 0.102 27.7% 3.6% 13.7% 52.1% SS $2,100 3B/SS $3,200 N/A N/A
7 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.280 0.140 41.6% 3.6% 32.3% 53.7% OF $2,000 OF $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Austin Dean RIGHT 0.332 0.231 45.2% 2.5% 20.0% 41.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
9 Wei-Yin Chen LEFT 0.103 0.033 5.3% 0.0% 40.6% 87.5% P $7,700 P $7,000 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.302 0.130 34.2% 5.0% 21.4% 51.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Lewis Brinson

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

If you want to pick on a pitcher in this game, I’d rather pick on Chen than Nova. As a lefty with a wide split, Chen can have some problems against right-handed hitters. He has allowed a .330 wOBA and 13 dongs to RHBs on the year. I wouldn’t necessarily want to load up on the Pirates, but this looks like a solid spot for Starling Marte, who would be your top option. Jose Osuna or Jordan Luplow are a couple of decent ways to save some money. I’d fade lefties against Chen.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.360 0.183 34.8% 7.1% 21.3% 55.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
2 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.347 0.119 36.4% 4.5% 20.5% 36.4% OF $3,600 2B/OF $4,300 N/A N/A
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.305 0.183 31.8% 10.2% 23.4% 37.2% OF $4,000 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
4 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.378 0.136 35.4% 18.1% 21.7% 35.4% C $3,500 C $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.332 0.257 30.8% 2.8% 25.0% 42.3% OF $2,000 1B/OF $3,100 N/A N/A
6 Jordan Luplow RIGHT 0.329 0.150 6.3% 13.0% 17.4% 31.3% OF $2,000 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Pablo Reyes RIGHT 2B $2,000 3B $3,500 N/A N/A
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.350 0.126 33.3% 7.5% 14.2% 35.8% SS $2,200 SS $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.058 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 64.3% 60.0% P $7,400 P $5,900 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.307 0.144 26.1% 7.9% 26.0% 41.7%

Elite Plays – Starling Marte

Secondary Plays – Jordan Luplow, Jose Osuna, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston at Boston – 4:05 PM ET

Houston Boston
Article Image Charlie Morton Article Image Eduardo Rodriguez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-110 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.320 40.1% 1.07 36.3% 40.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.291 0.291 30.6% 1.21 37.6% 38.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.270 0.270 23.8% 0.85 23.0% 53.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.282 0.294 24.2% 0.92 23.5% 41.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Charlie Morton
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $17,700
Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: 6 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 3.70 3.62 26.4% 8.1% 51.8% 26.9% 22.1% 95.0 10.9%
2018 26 3.52 3.14 29.2% 9.6% 48.4% 30.0% 22.0% 95.8 12.1%
L14 2 4.57 8.38 21.3% 10.6% 48.3% 31.0% 27.6% 95.1 7.8%

This will be the first start for Charlie Morton since going on the DL with shoulder inflammation a little over a week ago. A.J. Hinch said he plans to be conservative with Morton and said he’d be “surprised” if he pitched beyond the sixth inning. Morton has posted excellent overall numbers this season (29.2% K-rate, 3.53 SIERA), but he’s also facing arguably the league’s best offense in the second-best hitter’s park in baseball. You can take a shot on what figures to be a low-owned Morton in large-field tournaments, but I’d rather take a wait-and-see approach with a guy expected to be on a pitch count today. The matchup is also brutal, so I see no reason to risk it here.

Quick Breakdown: With the combination of a pitch count and a rough matchup at Boston, Morton looks like a fade on this slate.

Eduardo Rodriguez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $10,000 Salary: $19,700
Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 24 4.05 4.19 25.8% 8.6% 34.9% 30.8% 18.6% 93.3 11.7%
2018 20 3.62 3.34 26.3% 7.1% 40.9% 25.3% 20.3% 93.3 11.3%
L14 1 0.73 1.59 60.0% 5.0% 42.9% 14.3% 42.9% 94.3 15.6%

Eduardo Rodriguez was limited to 90 pitches in his last start, which was also his first off the DL, and he sure made them count. E-Rod fanned 12 White Sox while allowing just one run in 5.2 innings of work back on September 1. The lefty boasts a strikeout rate of 26.3% this season alongside a solid 3.63 SIERA. He’s been great in terms of limiting hard contact (25%), while the walk rate of 7.1% is improved over where it’s been in years past. The problem with Rodriguez is that he’s priced up and his matchup isn’t much better than Morton’s. Houston has one of the deepest lineups in all of baseball, and they have the second-lowest team strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez isn’t the worst play on the board, but I don’t see the need to pay for him today.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Rodriguez has allowed a .329 career wOBA to left-handed hitters while holding righties to a .299 mark. That said, 46 of the 60 homers he’s allowed in his career have come against right-handed hitters. The Astros get a major park upgrade today going into Fenway, and I’d rather take the offenses in this game than either pitcher. Fenway is a great park for righty power, so I’m inclined to take a shot on some of the right-handed hitters here and hope they can pepper the Green Monster in left. Alex Bregman is expensive, but if you can afford him he’s the top option. The other Astros are more affordable. Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa are easier to fit in. Tyler White isn’t a bad try, either. I’m fine stacking the Astros in GPPs while playing one or two of their bats in cash.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.378 0.214 38.9% 9.4% 22.0% 48.1% OF $4,200 OF $4,700 RF $9,400
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.403 0.132 39.1% 8.4% 10.5% 38.6% 2B $4,000 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
3 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.378 0.253 35.0% 12.4% 9.7% 30.8% 3B $4,700 3B/SS $5,800 3B $10,300
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.350 0.119 27.7% 14.9% 20.8% 36.9% SS $3,500 SS $4,200 SS $8,300
5 Tyler White RIGHT 0.418 0.333 39.4% 13.5% 23.1% 33.3% 1B $4,100 1B $4,600 1B $8,900
6 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.338 0.141 34.1% 6.6% 10.5% 36.5% 1B $2,800 1B $3,800 1B $7,700
7 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.329 0.265 28.9% 7.1% 15.9% 39.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,200 RF $6,600
8 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.294 0.113 39.7% 4.5% 24.5% 40.3% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,800
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.319 0.198 32.7% 6.1% 39.4% 26.0% OF $2,100 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
Team Averages 0.356 0.196 35.1% 9.2% 19.6% 36.7%

Elite Plays – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer

Secondary Plays – Tyler White, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

Morton has allowed a .322 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season along with 16 home runs overall. He’s also a guy that can get himself into trouble with walks. This isn’t the greatest spot for the Red Sox, but they’re potent enough to where they’re always in play as a stack whenever they’re at home. Andrew Benintendi stands out with the platoon advantage against Morton, but I don’t think you can go wrong with either J.D. Martinez or Mookie Betts. Rafael Devers and Mitch Moreland are also pretty cheap if they happen to crack the lineup. Eduardo Nunez is a viable value option from the right side, as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.449 0.276 44.2% 11.4% 14.2% 33.6% OF $4,500 OF $5,700 RF $10,400
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.396 0.201 29.6% 12.9% 14.7% 38.2% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 LF $8,900
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.456 0.344 46.0% 10.9% 22.5% 44.3% OF $4,600 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
4 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.381 0.256 37.5% 6.9% 16.4% 46.9% SS $3,500 SS $4,400 SS $8,100
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.419 0.228 37.3% 10.2% 19.8% 40.8% 1B $2,900 1B $3,900 1B $7,500
6 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.338 0.194 31.6% 8.4% 10.5% 37.6% 2B $2,700 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
7 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.329 0.203 36.8% 8.0% 24.3% 43.8% 3B $3,000 3B $3,800 3B $7,400
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.275 0.085 27.1% 3.1% 15.4% 40.6% C $2,200 C $2,800 C $5,800
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.379 0.186 41.6% 9.5% 22.3% 39.7% OF $2,600 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
Team Averages 0.380 0.219 36.9% 9.0% 17.8% 40.6%

Elite Plays – J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Texas Oakland
Article Image Yohander Mendez Article Image Edwin Jackson
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK-170 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.408 0.198 20.0% 0.00 0.0% 80.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 0.357 36.2% 1.51 16.0% 35.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.499 0.473 61.5% 3.38 6.7% 15.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.287 0.340 36.6% 0.83 19.1% 37.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yohander Mendez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 26 of 29 Salary Rank: 29 of 29 Salary Rank: 27 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 5.00 5.11 13.5% 5.8% 34.1% 31.7% 19.5% 92.5 8.4%
2018 1 6.66 14.73 4.8% 9.5% 33.3% 50.0% 16.7% 91.9 3.5%

We haven’t seen much of Yohander Mendez at the big league level, but what we have seen overall hasn’t been impressive. In limited duty, the left-hander has a tiny 9% strikeout rate along with a SIERA of 5.75 as a major leaguer. He’s never been a big strikeout guy in the minors, either, and today he draws a difficult matchup against a powerful A’s lineup. Mendez gets a park boost going from Texas into Oakland, but that’s really the only good thing I can say about him.

Quick Breakdown: Mendez is an easy fade against the A’s.

Edwin Jackson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,500
Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 9 of 29 Salary Rank: 9 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 13 5.03 5.21 17.7% 8.6% 37.0% 30.8% 22.4% 93.5 10.0%
2018 12 4.87 3.03 17.5% 8.6% 36.1% 36.4% 20.4% 93.0 8.2%
L14 2 5.76 6.00 14.0% 11.6% 31.3% 40.6% 28.1% 93.6 6.3%

Edwin Jackson was a little wobbly for a couple of starts before getting back on track last time out against the Mariners. Regression is probably coming for Jackson at some point, but he’s gotten good results for the most part so far. On the season, the right-hander has a middling 16.8% strikeout rate alongside an 8.6% walk rate. His 4.97 SIERA is also far more pedestrian than his 2.91 ERA would lead you to believe. The matchup against the Rangers today comes with some strikeout potential, but Jackson is priced a bit high for my liking. He’s presumably going to come back to earth at some point, and I don’t want to be there when that happens.

Quick Breakdown: I’d be avoiding Jackson today.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Stacking against Edwin Jackson hasn’t often panned out this season, and the Texas hitters will be getting a park downgrade going into the spacious coliseum. That said, they’re cheaper than we’re used to seeing, so I think you can deploy a few Rangers in all formats. Rougned Odor is a solid way to fill your second base spot, as 6 of the 9 dingers Jackson’s served up this season have come against left-handed hitters. Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo are your next-best bets here. Robinson Chirinos is a viable cheap catcher play. Ditto for Elvis Andrus at shortstop. I don’t love the spot for the Rangers overall, but they’re stackable because they’re cheap and come with some upside.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-Soo Choo LEFT 0.420 0.228 44.5% 15.1% 21.6% 48.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,000 RF $7,300
2 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.361 0.239 47.8% 8.9% 23.9% 39.1% 2B $3,900 2B $4,300 2B $8,600
3 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.292 0.110 33.5% 6.3% 14.8% 53.0% SS $3,200 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
4 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.366 0.176 39.1% 9.6% 18.1% 55.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,400 RF $8,300
5 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.333 0.143 41.5% 6.5% 20.5% 40.5% 3B $3,200 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.334 0.190 35.3% 8.6% 15.2% 45.5% 3B $3,400 3B/SS $4,100 SS $8,000
7 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.388 0.267 47.6% 15.6% 32.9% 30.3% OF $3,500 1B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,300
8 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.323 0.207 47.1% 9.9% 35.5% 30.4% C $2,900 C $3,300 C $6,800
9 Ronald Guzman LEFT 0.324 0.194 33.5% 9.6% 29.9% 38.4% 1B $2,700 1B $3,500 1B $6,400
Team Averages 0.349 0.195 41.1% 10.0% 23.6% 42.3%

Elite Plays – Rougned Odor, Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo

Secondary Plays – Robinson Chirinos, Elvis Andrus

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

Yohander Mendez is a low-strikeout left-hander facing a solid A’s lineup today. Oakland will be popular, as usual, but you’ll still be wanting to get some exposure here. Khris Davis and Matt Chapman are the best options, as they’ll hold the platoon edge over Mendez and both obviously carry plenty of home run upside. They’re not that expensive, either. Marcus Semien is also an elite play at shortstop, while Jonathan Lucroy is a great way to punt catcher. Ramon Laureano is fine if he draws a favorable lineup spot. I’m also fine with a lefty like Matt Olson here, even without the platoon advantage against Mendez. The A’s are the top offense of the early slate, so stack accordingly.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.336 0.187 35.8% 10.3% 19.1% 37.2% SS $3,300 SS $4,200 SS $8,100
2 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.301 0.168 44.9% 9.2% 25.5% 44.9% 3B $4,100 3B $4,300 3B $8,000
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.351 0.124 46.7% 9.0% 18.6% 33.3% 2B $3,800 2B $4,200 2B $8,200
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.358 0.248 45.6% 12.3% 28.4% 37.8% OF $4,000 OF $4,300 LF $8,300
5 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.368 0.179 36.8% 9.8% 18.9% 47.4% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 RF $8,300
6 Matt Olson LEFT 0.336 0.133 45.2% 7.6% 22.2% 38.1% 1B $3,400 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,300
7 Ramon Laureano RIGHT 0.392 0.125 37.5% 17.2% 27.6% 50.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
8 Chad Pinder RIGHT 0.371 0.168 54.6% 9.9% 26.2% 47.1% OF $2,400 2B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,700
9 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.321 0.125 33.7% 9.4% 17.1% 37.2% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,700
Team Averages 0.348 0.162 42.3% 10.5% 22.6% 41.4%

Elite Plays – Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien, Jonathan Lucroy, Stephen Piscotty

Secondary Plays – Ramon Laureano, Matt Olson, Jed Lowrie

Stackability – GREEN

Cleveland at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Cleveland Toronto
Article Image Adam Plutko Article Image Sean Reid-Foley
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-115 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.451 0.399 38.7% 2.96 10.1% 27.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.368 0.428 50.0% 3.18 25.9% 21.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.237 0.267 32.6% 1.32 25.8% 26.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.557 0.445 47.1% 4.91 10.5% 47.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Plutko
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 9 5.07 4.94 18.1% 7.8% 27.0% 35.8% 16.2% 91.2 7.7%
L14 2 6.00 6.52 19.6% 15.2% 20.7% 27.6% 6.9% 91.3 7.1%

The 4.78 SIERA for Adam Plutko is an improvement on his 5.04 ERA, but neither is something to write home about. The right-hander has a mediocre 19.7% strikeout rate this season and he’s allowed hard hits at a 37.2% clip. He’s also an extreme fly ball pitcher, which helps explain how he’s allowed 16 homers in 13 outings as a big leaguer this season. The Blue Jays aren’t an amazing offense on the other side, but they do have some sluggers in the lineup. Plutko doesn’t carry a ton of upside to begin with, which makes him an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: Fade Plutko in Toronto.

Sean Reid-Foley
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 2 5.21 8.68 19.6% 13.0% 35.5% 48.4% 16.1% 93.8 11.4%

Sean Reid-Foley limped through his first 2 big league starts before exploding last time out against the Marlins. The rookie fanned 10 Marlins across 7 dominant innings of work. He’s a prospect with some pedigree, and the strikeout ability has been there through his first few big league starts. The problem here is that he’s not facing the Marlins today. The Indians are coming to town, which is obviously a much more difficult task for any pitcher. I think you can take a stab at SRF if you want to be different in GPPs, but we know there’s an awful lot of downside for anyone pitching against Cleveland.

Quick Breakdown: Wait for a better matchup before putting Reid-Foley out there again.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Reid-Foley struggled in his first couple of starts against the Royals and Yankees, and he gets perhaps his most difficult matchup yet today against the Indians. Most Cleveland hitters don’t come cheap, but Rogers Centre is a good park for power and we know the Indians have no shortage of that. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are the best options, as usual. Edwin Encarnacion is always viable, while Michael Brantley makes sense if he returns to the lineup. Yonder Alonso and Yan Gomes are also elite values at their respective positions. I’d rather load up on A’s, but the upside is always there for the Tribe.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.387 0.246 41.7% 9.2% 16.3% 36.5% SS $4,800 SS $5,600 SS $10,300
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.402 0.183 42.8% 8.8% 8.1% 43.2% OF $4,200 OF $4,500 LF $8,900
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.411 0.345 38.5% 17.8% 11.7% 32.2% 3B $4,800 3B $5,300 IF/OF $9,600
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.387 0.267 43.2% 8.6% 22.7% 39.0% 1B $3,900 1B $4,500 1B $8,900
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.379 0.208 38.8% 9.7% 19.4% 38.5% 1B $3,700 1B $3,700 1B $7,700
6 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.348 0.153 37.7% 10.4% 17.6% 34.9% 2B $3,400 2B $4,200 2B $8,300
7 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.342 0.142 37.8% 7.9% 12.6% 46.2% OF $3,700 OF $3,700 LF $7,700
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.305 0.149 42.9% 4.1% 28.1% 33.3% C $2,800 C $3,200 C $6,700
9 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.292 0.088 38.6% 4.0% 16.7% 45.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 CF $6,700
Team Averages 0.361 0.198 40.2% 8.9% 17.0% 38.8%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes, Yonder Alonso

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

Plutko has yielded a .457 wOBA with 10 home runs in limited action this season against left-handed hitters alone. That’s impressively ineffective. The Jays have been giving more playing time to some youngsters lately, so it’s tough to peg who will draw the start here. Billy McKinney is a solid option assuming he finds his way into the leadoff spot, while Justin Smoak is likely your top overall play from the Toronto side. The right-handers are very much in play, as well. Randal Grichuk is solid, while Lourdes Gurriel comes cheap. Toronto also has a guy named Rowdy Tellez, who I’m only mentioning because his name is Rowdy Tellez. The Jays could be somewhat contrarian, so I like the stack for GPPs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy McKinney LEFT 0.469 0.361 55.6% 11.6% 23.3% 33.3% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 LF $7,700
2 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.325 0.133 33.0% 5.7% 20.1% 54.0% 2B $2,700 2B $3,600 2B $7,300
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.409 0.268 39.7% 16.1% 26.2% 32.4% 1B $3,200 1B $4,600 1B $9,300
4 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.351 0.270 35.2% 6.3% 22.7% 35.8% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 RF $8,300
5 Rowdy Tellez LEFT 1B $2,500 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.337 0.172 33.7% 3.7% 19.3% 35.9% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
7 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.343 0.174 33.0% 2.4% 22.2% 40.4% 2B $3,000 2B/SS $3,600 2B $7,300
8 Danny Jansen RIGHT 0.291 0.219 24.1% 7.9% 10.5% 31.0% C $2,300 C $3,500 C $6,400
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.347 0.181 33.9% 3.3% 12.8% 41.9% SS $3,200 SS $3,800 SS $7,200
Team Averages 0.359 0.222 36.0% 7.1% 19.6% 38.1%

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak, Billy McKinney, Randal Grichuk

Secondary Plays – Lourdes Gurriel, Teoscar Hernandez

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego at Cincinnati – 4:10 PM ET

San Diego Cincinnati
Article Image Robbie Erlin Article Image Matt Harvey
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-120 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.292 0.286 45.3% 0.99 25.5% 60.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.351 0.365 42.2% 1.87 17.4% 38.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.313 31.7% 0.99 19.0% 41.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.328 35.3% 1.13 19.7% 45.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Robbie Erlin
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 26 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 8 3.39 3.87 20.9% 2.8% 46.7% 35.4% 19.7% 90.3 9.2%
L14 3 3.49 6.60 23.9% 3.0% 30.6% 53.1% 14.3% 90.6 9.6%

Robbie Erlin has been serviceable since moving into the rotation. Overall, the southpaw has a 20.9% K-rate on the year and a super low walk rate under 3%. His 3.40 SIERA is also solid, and he’s kept the ball on the ground at a 46.7% clip. Erlin gets a pretty big park downgrade today going into Cincinnati, but his numbers are decent enough and he’s cheap enough to where he’s at least on my radar as an SP2 punt. If you want a cheap pitcher that allows you access to some of the more expensive bats, I think Erlin’s your guy.

Quick Breakdown: Erlin isn’t great, but he’s cheap enough to where he’s a viable punt as an SP2.

Matt Harvey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,000
Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 18 5.44 6.70 15.6% 10.9% 43.0% 32.5% 24.1% 93.8 7.5%
2018 23 4.31 4.97 18.5% 5.7% 41.9% 38.8% 18.2% 93.9 8.6%
L14 2 2.94 5.79 27.9% 2.3% 33.3% 46.7% 20.0% 94.0 6.8%

Chalk Matt Harvey Day? Considering he’s facing the Padres, it’s possible. Harvey has been better since moving to Cincy, but his overall numbers are still lacking. The right-hander has an unimpressive 18.3% strikeout rate and he’s still allowed hard contact at a 38.1% rate. The 4.33 SIERA is more respectable than the 4.95 ERA, however, and, again, he’s facing the Padres today. Harvey also comes with an affordable price tag, which makes him all the more appealing. I hate to say it, but I think you can play Matt Harvey in all formats today.

Quick Breakdown: As gross as it sounds, Harvey is a strong option on the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

This is still Matt Harvey we’re talking about, so I think you can stack the Padres against him as a hedge in GPPs. Great American is a great park for power, and Harvey has yielded a .358 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season. There’s not a lot to love from the left side, but Francisco Mejia and Eric Hosmer are viable. Travis Jankowski and Cory Spangenberg are fine if they crack the lineup. The righties aren’t out of play here, either, so give Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe or Luis Urias a look. Mejia would be the Padre I’d prioritize at a thin catcher position.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Luis Urias RIGHT 0.308 0.000 28.6% 11.1% 5.6% 84.6% 2B $2,700 2B $3,900 2B $7,400
2 Francisco Mejia SWITCH 0.690 0.000 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% C $2,500 C $4,000 C $7,300
3 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.345 0.278 46.4% 5.2% 28.1% 40.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 RF $9,000
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.318 0.143 36.1% 9.1% 23.7% 59.3% 1B $3,200 1B $4,300 1B $8,500
5 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.360 0.177 53.5% 5.2% 31.0% 46.5% 3B $3,500 3B/OF $4,700 IF/OF $9,100
6 Franmil Reyes RIGHT 0.300 0.215 36.8% 4.4% 31.6% 44.8% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.285 0.106 38.4% 8.3% 25.0% 42.4% SS $2,800 SS $3,400 SS $6,900
8 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.295 0.133 34.6% 7.1% 16.5% 47.4% OF $2,400 OF $3,900 CF $7,700
9 Robbie Erlin LEFT 0.071 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% P $5,800 P $4,800 P $9,600
Team Averages 0.330 0.117 30.5% 16.7% 23.5% 46.2%

Elite Plays – Francisco Mejia, Eric Hosmer

Secondary Plays – Cory Spangenberg, Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers, Luis Urias

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Cincinnati

Robbie Erlin is a lefty with a fairly neutral split. On the season he’s allowed 3 homers to lefties and 7 homers to righties. Joey Votto hasn’t been great this season, but I still think you can deploy him today even in a lefty-lefty matchup. Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza and Billy Hamilton look like the best plays from the right side. Scott Schebler and Scooter Gennett are fine, but neither looks like a big priority on this slate. Curt Casali is also a catcher with some pop.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.259 0.121 24.1% 7.1% 27.0% 25.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.294 0.122 24.3% 3.1% 6.1% 38.9% SS $3,500 SS $4,300 SS $8,500
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.359 0.091 40.2% 14.0% 21.1% 44.9% 1B $4,000 1B $4,100 1B $8,500
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.464 0.325 56.2% 14.4% 20.1% 36.0% 3B $3,900 3B $5,200 3B $10,000
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.301 0.180 40.2% 5.6% 22.2% 38.3% 2B $4,100 2B $5,300 2B $9,800
6 Phillip Ervin RIGHT 0.357 0.211 41.9% 11.4% 18.2% 35.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
7 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.420 0.159 41.3% 5.3% 13.7% 44.0% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 RF $9,100
8 Curt Casali RIGHT 0.397 0.212 34.5% 10.3% 12.8% 41.4% C $3,200 C $3,700 C $7,200
9 Matt Harvey RIGHT 0.284 0.000 60.0% 0.0% 44.4% 40.0% P $6,900 P $6,600 P $13,000
Team Averages 0.348 0.158 40.3% 7.9% 20.6% 38.3%

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Curt Casali, Scott Schebler, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles