MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 9th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-09-10 01:56:15

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Baltimore at Cleveland – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Cleveland
			Gabriel Ynoa							Josh Tomlin
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-175							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.433	0.334	33.3%	3.6%	10.7%	37.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.341	0.338	38.2%	2.4%	16.7%	41.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.282	0.367	43.5%	5.7%	28.6%	21.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.339	0.349	33.7%	2.9%	19.4%	38.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gabriel Ynoa
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$4,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	3	4.08	6.38	19.3%	8.0%	49.2%	28.6%	14.3%
	2017	0	4.27	3.68	20.6%	4.8%	29.8%	38.3%	14.9%
	L30	0	8.99	0.00	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	20.0%	20.0%

The Cleveland Indians have now won an incredible 16 games in a row. That is unbelievable. They will take on Gabriel Ynoa today, who will be making his first start of the season. He has not thrown more than three innings in any of his relief appearances and is a league average pitcher at best. This is basically a bullpen game, and Ynoa can easily be crossed off the list of viable arms this afternoon.

Quick Breakdown: Ynoa what they say – don’t do it. I absolutely apologize for starting the Grind Down with that awful word play.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Josh Tomlin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	29	4.24	4.40	16.3%	2.8%	43.8%	33.9%	16.4%
	2017	21	4.22	5.20	18.2%	2.7%	39.8%	35.7%	13.2%
	L30	1	5.13	1.59	9.5%	4.8%	50.0%	27.8%	0.0%

Tomlin is basically a league average pitcher who sometimes posts better than league average results because he doesn’t walk anybody. There is a downside to his “pitch to contact” ways, though, as Tomlin allows a lot of hard contact. His results have been less than stellar this season, with an ERA over 5.00. I don’t want any part of that risk against a Baltimore team that has been one of the hottest offenses in all of baseball since the beginning of August.

Quick Breakdown: Even though the Indians have won 16 games in a row, there’s far too much risk to consider Tomlin in any format today.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.342	0.311	0.172	40.6%	5.0%	29.2%	48.1%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.344	0.366	0.227	37.8%	8.2%	16.2%	42.2%	3B	$4,300	3B	$5,400	N/A	N/A
3	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.363	0.312	0.208	33.2%	4.4%	20.3%	40.9%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.336	0.309	0.200	31.0%	3.3%	18.3%	44.3%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.377	0.353	0.250	36.0%	6.5%	22.2%	52.1%	OF	$3,400	1B/OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.326	0.341	0.257	44.3%	12.0%	35.0%	35.7%	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.297	0.307	0.167	31.4%	7.7%	24.4%	42.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
8	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.335	0.337	0.204	37.6%	5.9%	25.1%	41.2%	C	$3,400	C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.347	0.355	0.184	36.5%	9.9%	20.2%	42.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A

Tomlin is a fly ball pitcher who is largely splits-neutral. He allows a lot of hard contact, as I mentioned above, and he has given up 19 home runs in 21 starts this year. The power hitters are where you want to start here. If you want to go with the BvP splits, Adam Jones has a .524 career average against Tomlin across 21 at bats. That’s not bad. There is full stack appeal here, as well, as Tomlin can get shelled when things don’t go his way. However, I prefer sticking to one or two individual power bats.

Elite Plays – Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.320	0.330	0.200	31.6%	7.8%	13.3%	39.7%	SS	$4,300	SS	$5,500	N/A	N/A
2	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.308	0.293	0.128	39.3%	7.6%	24.4%	45.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
3	Yandy Diaz	RIGHT	0.283	0.312	0.070	38.2%	8.9%	21.5%	60.0%	3B	$2,500	3B/OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.376	0.391	0.265	36.9%	14.1%	19.4%	34.9%	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,200	N/A	N/A
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.372	0.390	0.230	37.2%	13.4%	18.4%	30.9%	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,300	N/A	N/A
6	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.370	0.336	0.274	33.3%	8.2%	19.0%	33.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
7	Yandy Diaz	RIGHT	0.283	0.312	0.070	38.2%	8.9%	21.5%	60.0%	3B	$2,500	3B/OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.269	0.264	0.108	24.1%	8.3%	26.2%	41.0%	C	$3,100	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Bradley Zimmer	LEFT	0.311	0.299	0.167	36.6%	8.8%	31.7%	44.8%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A

Cleveland hasn’t lost a game since the Abraham Lincoln administration, and there are no immediate signs of a slowdown. They own a .365 team wOBA that is third in the league over the last month, and they own a .231 team ISO that leads all of baseball. They could certainly cause problems for a 24 year old pitcher without a track record of much upside. At this point, who could argue against riding the wave? It has been incredible, and the Indians are tied with the Astros for the highest implied team total on the afternoon slate.

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Yandy Diaz (value)

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall, Austin Jackson

Stackability – GREEN

NY Yankees at Texas – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Texas
			Luis Severino							Andrew Cashner
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-150							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.293	0.307	31.9%	6.7%	27.2%	47.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.303	0.321	29.0%	11.6%	13.0%	36.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.251	0.248	26.3%	6.3%	30.5%	54.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.312	27.6%	6.3%	12.5%	58.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Severino
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$12,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	11	4.06	5.83	21.2%	8.0%	45.1%	29.4%	20.6%
	2017	27	3.26	3.03	29.0%	6.5%	51.0%	28.9%	18.2%
	L30	5	3.11	3.60	30.7%	7.1%	51.3%	29.5%	15.4%

Luis Severino gets the ball for the Yankees this afternoon, and despite the fact that he is pitching in a very hitter-friendly park, he projects to be the best pitcher in the afternoon games. Part of that is a testament to his skill set, but part of it is also due to the fact that the pitching options are very slim this afternoon. Severino still owns impeccable numbers of the year that include a 3.03 ERA, 3.26 SIERA, 29% strikeout rate, and 50%+ ground ball rate. There isn’t a real weakness in his profile, and he has been installed as a very solid road favorite. It is not often that you see Texas with a team total below four runs at home.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is your top pitching option on the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Andrew Cashner
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	27	4.72	5.25	19.1%	10.2%	46.5%	35.8%	12.5%
	2017	23	5.41	3.29	12.7%	8.8%	48.4%	28.2%	18.9%
	L30	5	5.06	3.03	14.3%	6.0%	41.7%	24.0%	20.2%

That regression from Andrew Cashner just has to be coming sometime. Right? Right? RIGHT? Well, we’ve been waiting for it all season long, and he continues to defy even the most advanced of metrics. Cashner continues to pitch to a 3.29 ERA despite a SIERA that is more than two runs higher than that and a strikeout rate that sits at a nearly laughable 12.7%. It has been frustrating to stack against him all year, but Cashner still lacks the upside to be considered as a DFS pitching option. Even though he has been good as suppressing runs, the strikeout potential that is needed for a big fantasy day.

Quick Breakdown: Cashner can safely be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.352	0.333	0.195	33.1%	11.3%	18.5%	41.9%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.417	0.421	0.306	43.7%	15.9%	31.4%	36.2%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
3	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.352	0.309	0.182	30.6%	3.5%	19.7%	47.9%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.360	0.289	0.228	25.8%	4.6%	11.9%	38.3%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,400	N/A	N/A
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.352	0.309	0.182	30.6%	3.5%	19.7%	47.9%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
6	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.314	0.337	0.207	29.1%	10.5%	25.1%	47.8%	OF	$2,900	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.349	0.328	0.136	31.6%	12.8%	23.7%	42.9%	1B	$3,900	1B/3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
8	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.320	0.338	0.172	29.6%	13.8%	22.3%	37.3%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.347	0.340	0.157	26.8%	10.7%	12.9%	45.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A

Is this the day where things finally start to catch up to Andrew Cashner? I sure hope so, as I will probably stack against him once again, even though it has failed about 15 times already this season. The park is conducive to offense, and the Yankees have a lineup that has fared very well against RHP all year long. Cashner has numbers that are splits-neutral this year for the most part, but he has a track record of struggling much more against left-handed hitters. In addition, his ground ball rate this year supports splits that would eventually trend that way, as Cashner has generated a healthy 58% ground ball rate against RHBs this year. That declines to a 37% mark against LHBs. Against my better judgment, I’ll fire up some Yankees LHBs today. This is the day it pays off!

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Chase Headley, Aaron Judge, Starlin Castro

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.311	0.258	0.072	23.6%	9.2%	21.8%	48.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Shin-soo Choo	LEFT	0.346	0.374	0.178	41.0%	12.4%	21.5%	44.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
3	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.354	0.306	0.176	29.8%	5.8%	15.7%	48.5%	SS	$3,900	SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
4	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.347	0.343	0.203	34.9%	10.8%	18.8%	40.6%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.364	0.355	0.244	44.1%	8.6%	29.3%	38.4%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.370	0.375	0.362	47.1%	14.7%	35.2%	27.1%	1B	$4,000	1B/3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.303	0.316	0.228	35.3%	10.0%	31.8%	35.3%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.305	0.308	0.238	39.1%	4.9%	24.0%	38.9%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.355	0.341	0.269	33.9%	10.5%	24.6%	40.7%	C	$3,100	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A

A Texas stack at home always carries at least some viability, and that is evidenced by the fact that they plopped double digits on the board against Masahiro Tanaka last night. However, there are a lot of good offenses on the five game early docket, and I am not going to get that cute. Severino is a very good pitcher who will be on a majority of my lineups, so I am not going to be targeting hitters against him. If you decide to, lefties have a pretty noted edge against him — but it’s not like they are lighting him up, either.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Houston								Oakland
			Charlie Morton							Daniel Gossett
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-160							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.245	0.281	27.7%	9.2%	31.9%	46.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.337	0.330	26.4%	8.0%	14.6%	49.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.360	0.322	29.6%	8.1%	21.7%	53.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.372	0.378	35.7%	5.8%	20.1%	41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Charlie Morton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$10,600	Salary:		$20,700
	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	2016	4	3.56	4.15	26.8%	11.3%	62.8%	20.5%	15.9%
	2017	21	3.76	3.87	26.6%	8.6%	50.5%	28.8%	20.5%
	L30	5	3.39	4.18	29.9%	7.7%	46.4%	29.6%	11.3%

In terms of talent level, Charlie Morton is probably the second best pitcher on the early slate behind only Severino. His numbers have not been the best over the past few weeks, but he did look pretty good in his last start against the Mets, where he struck out nine over just five innings of work. I don’t expect the Astros to push their starting pitchers over the final three weeks of the season, which may pose a problem for us in DFS. However, Morton does draw a fine matchup against an A’s team that is basically a boom/bust power squad, and Oakland owns the league’s fourth highest strikeout rate against RHP. Morton has a very respectable overall profile that includes a 3.77 SIERA, a solid batted ball profile, and a well above average strikeout rate. Put him on your radar today.

Quick Breakdown: Morton is the second best pitcher on the early slate behind only Luis Severino. He is the top pitcher on the FanDuel early slate, which has for some reason been split into an “early” and “very early” slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Daniel Gossett
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30

	2017	13	4.56	5.32	17.7%	6.8%	45.2%	31.5%	16.2%
	L30	3	4.40	5.87	23.0%	10.8%	46.8%	36.7%	14.3%

Gossett owns poor numbers this year and has not been a serviceable pitcher at the major league level. His ERA sits at 5.32 and he allows hard contact at a 33% clip. Needless to say, he is not on the radar as a fairly sizable home underdog against a dangerous and now healthy Astros lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Gossett can safely be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.376	0.367	0.244	38.6%	8.9%	20.8%	48.9%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,100	RF	$10,000
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.330	0.330	0.178	32.4%	8.1%	16.2%	41.6%	3B	$4,100	3B/SS	$4,500	3B	$8,700
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.413	0.359	0.202	27.7%	8.4%	12.5%	45.2%	2B	$3,900	2B	$5,200	2B	$10,200
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.378	0.389	0.237	38.9%	11.6%	20.5%	46.8%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,700	SS	$9,200
5	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.358	0.328	0.187	32.0%	7.6%	12.4%	33.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	RF	$9,000
6	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.352	0.328	0.201	33.4%	2.9%	9.5%	45.0%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
7	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.312	0.296	0.188	33.1%	7.4%	18.2%	42.6%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,400
8	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.309	0.325	0.166	34.6%	9.6%	14.5%	40.4%	C	$2,800	C	$3,300	C	$6,400
9	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.322	0.313	0.173	26.5%	14.3%	20.7%	56.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500	CF	$8,700

The Astros have a projected team total of five and a half runs this afternoon, and they are one of the better offensive units to target on this slate. Gossett has shown very strong reverse splits trends this year, allowing a higher wOBA, hard contact rate, and fly ball rate to right-handed hitters, and the differences are very discernible. Fire up the Houston RHBs with confidence, and the top four hitters in this lineup all hit from the right side. A full stack is very much in play, too.

Elite Plays – Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Yuli Gurriel

Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick

Stackability – GREEN

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.317	0.304	0.130	24.6%	10.0%	23.4%	38.7%	SS	$3,600	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,800
2	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.357	0.368	0.254	32.3%	13.7%	20.3%	33.8%	OF	$4,100	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.350	0.371	0.176	36.9%	10.6%	14.4%	26.5%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,900
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.373	0.382	0.312	41.4%	10.1%	31.4%	39.5%	OF	$4,500	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
5	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.399	0.357	0.370	40.3%	9.1%	29.8%	38.0%	1B	$3,400	1B/OF	$4,100	LF	$8,100
6	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.296	0.308	0.170	35.6%	3.7%	24.9%	44.1%	1B	$2,800	1B/3B	$3,000	3B	$6,000
7	Bruce Maxwell	LEFT	0.324	0.321	0.120	37.8%	13.1%	23.4%	45.9%	C	$2,900	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
8	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.335	0.266	0.261	36.0%	9.9%	31.4%	36.0%	3B	$2,600	3B	$2,400	3B	$4,800
9	Boog Powell	LEFT	0.296	0.268	0.058	23.8%	11.2%	24.5%	45.9%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,600

I would not recommend going heavy with Oakland hitters this afternoon, as I will be using a lot of Charlie Morton on the mound. However, should you decide to do so, know that Morton has shown strong reverse splits this year. He has held LHBs to a very low .245 wOBA on the season, while RHBs have posted a mark that is more than 100 points higher than that. A lot of that is BABIP-driven, though, as his batted ball profile is relatively neutral. All told, I am not excited about much of anything here, though the power potential of Khris Davis is always an option.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Khris Davis, Marcus Semien

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Chicago Cubs
			Chase Anderson							Mike Montgomery
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-150
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.279	0.260	30.8%	7.0%	25.4%	36.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.268	0.273	26.2%	6.2%	13.2%	60.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.300	0.285	33.3%	9.1%	21.3%	38.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.295	0.307	31.5%	11.3%	19.9%	57.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chase Anderson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	30	4.68	4.39	18.6%	8.2%	36.1%	36.6%	17.2%
	2017	20	4.30	3.06	23.1%	8.1%	37.9%	32.3%	18.2%
	L30	4	4.89	3.80	21.7%	10.9%	37.3%	28.3%	16.7%

If you are looking to go cheap at pitcher this afternoon, we might have a couple options at Wrigley Field. The Brewers and Cubs played to a 2-0 score last night with the wind blowing in, and we are going to see similar conditions today with a mild game time temperature of 67 degrees. Anderson is a fly ball pitcher who should excel in these conditions, and BABIP luck is likely to be in his favor. He should eventually regress from his 3.06 ERA, but today might not be the day for that given the weather conditions. The Cubs are a very dangerous offense that can hit a lot of home runs, and they would be an elite stack with the wind blowing out. It just goes to show how much of a role the wind plays at Wrigley.

Quick Breakdown: There is a ton of risk here, but Anderson might be worth a look as a cheap SP option with the wind blowing in (or perhaps a slight cross-wind) at Wrigley Field again today.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Montgomery
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	7	3.57	2.52	22.2%	9.2%	58.4%	25.6%	18.3%
	2017	11	4.41	3.38	18.1%	9.9%	58.5%	29.9%	20.3%
	L30	3	4.44	2.30	12.4%	5.7%	61.0%	20.0%	20.0%

On the other side of this game, Mike Montgomery could also be worth a peek as a viable pitching target. His profile is about the opposite of Anderson’s, as Montgomery has a 58.5% ground ball rate, which is one of the better marks in all of baseball. Like Anderson, though, he has pitched to good fortune this year, and regression is inevitable from his 3.38 ERA. Again, today is likely not the day for that to occur. The Brewers also sport the highest team strikeout rate in the league this season, so Montgomery gets some added upside built in there. Montgomery is your safer selection between the pitchers in this game.

Quick Breakdown: If you are looking to save some salary at pitcher, give the options in this game a look. Montgomery is the safer choice, and he gets some added strikeout upside against the Brewers.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.262	0.237	0.116	29.0%	7.4%	30.3%	60.8%	SS	$2,900	2B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.372	0.373	0.218	40.5%	14.6%	24.6%	49.4%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.355	0.419	0.227	51.7%	12.8%	10.3%	43.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.323	0.259	0.214	27.5%	5.7%	27.0%	41.8%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.388	0.332	0.226	50.9%	9.6%	29.8%	42.1%	1B	$2,500	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Keon Broxton	RIGHT	0.332	0.312	0.244	32.7%	12.2%	34.7%	41.2%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,500	N/A	N/A
7	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.333	0.328	0.100	44.3%	4.6%	23.0%	32.8%	C	$2,300	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.290	0.269	0.071	28.2%	10.9%	18.2%	49.4%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Chase Anderson	RIGHT	0.000	0.064	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	P	$8,000	P	$7,600	N/A	N/A

With the wind blowing across the field/in today, I am not really interested in either offense from this game. Montgomery has a 57%+ ground ball rate against hitters from both sides of the plate, and he has held hitters from both sides to a sub-.300 wOBA. There isn’t much to get excited about here, with Ryan Braun being the most legitimate play of the bunch given his career success against lefties.

Elite Plays – Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Domingo Santana

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.320	0.330	0.152	33.6%	10.8%	13.7%	52.4%	OF	$3,600	2B/OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.331	0.347	0.260	38.4%	11.3%	29.7%	38.8%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.389	0.344	0.245	30.7%	12.5%	19.9%	36.4%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.385	0.404	0.247	34.4%	13.3%	12.2%	38.7%	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,100	N/A	N/A
5	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.365	0.353	0.301	35.5%	11.2%	30.6%	40.1%	2B	$3,300	2B/OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.385	0.427	0.225	54.8%	17.0%	32.1%	37.4%	C	$2,900	1B/C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.299	0.278	0.186	29.9%	6.0%	29.3%	49.0%	SS	$3,600	2B/SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.306	0.323	0.131	26.4%	9.3%	11.3%	46.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Mike Montgomery	LEFT	0.225	0.181	0.182	25.0%	0.0%	33.3%	78.6%	P	$7,300	P	$7,900	N/A	N/A

I will undoubtedly be lower on the Cubs offense than a lot of people today, but you can certainly choose to go here if you think I am over-valuing the weather (which is possible). Chase Anderson is more susceptible to RHBs, continuing the trend of reverse splits pitchers this afternoon. The wind conditions might also set up better for right-handed power, so Kris Bryant is the most logical target. The switch hitting/lefty-heavy Cubs lineup just doesn’t set up well in this matchup.

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Detroit at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Detroit								Toronto
			Chad Bell							Brett Anderson
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-157							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.328	0.314	38.3%	9.5%	25.7%	46.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.448	0.499	66.7%	3.7%	18.5%	47.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.394	0.394	43.8%	10.6%	14.2%	46.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.379	0.377	36.6%	8.5%	13.2%	49.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chad Bell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30

	2017	1	4.65	5.98	18.1%	10.2%	46.7%	42.1%	15.8%
	L30	1	5.34	7.94	15.0%	13.3%	53.5%	39.5%	16.3%

Chad Bell has four letters in his first name and four letters in his last name. That’s kind of cool. My parents always taught me that when you can’t say anything nice, don’t say anything at all, so I am not going to say anything else. Bell’s numbers are cringe-worthy, and you can scroll to the Toronto bats section if you want to learn more.

Quick Breakdown: Nope.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Brett Anderson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	3	5.10	11.91	8.1%	6.5%	50.0%	35.9%	24.5%
	2017	8	4.84	6.42	14.1%	7.7%	48.7%	41.8%	20.5%
	L30	2	4.35	3.09	13.3%	0.0%	45.9%	56.4%	15.4%

Anderson was largely a bad luck victim during his brief time with the Cubs, as his numbers were not nearly as poor as his overall profile would indicate. He was also pitching hurt for a few of those starts. He has looked much better in his two starts for the Blue Jays, and he has not walked a single hitter in those two outings. The strikeout upside really isn’t there, but Anderson is a guy who lives on ground ball outs when he is on. There’s some appeal here given his improved form, new team, and a matchup against a Tigers squad that basically has nothing left in their lineup these days, though they did do some damage against Marcus Stroman on Friday.

Quick Breakdown: I can’t endorse it on a single pitcher site like FanDuel, but Anderson has some appeal as a SP #2 choice on DraftKings in a favorable matchup against the Tigers.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.370	0.374	0.238	44.9%	10.5%	10.5%	24.7%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.337	0.347	0.224	43.5%	4.1%	19.5%	41.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.387	0.389	0.336	45.0%	6.2%	16.9%	41.0%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
4	James McCann	RIGHT	0.427	0.465	0.297	44.0%	7.9%	15.8%	34.7%	C	$2,400	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
5	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.340	0.337	0.265	40.6%	7.5%	32.1%	48.4%	C	$2,500	1B/C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
6	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.432	0.383	0.222	33.3%	9.1%	27.3%	16.7%	3B	$2,500	1B/3B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
7	Alex Presley	LEFT	0.302	0.307	0.000	13.3%	9.1%	22.7%	53.3%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.278	0.254	0.250	35.7%	3.3%	46.7%	35.7%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.282	0.287	0.084	24.1%	4.5%	5.7%	46.2%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A

I am largely ignoring the splits that Brett Anderson put up during his brief time with the Cubs, as he seems to be back to his old self now. For his career, he has a very good ground ball rate of almost 58%, and it’s hard to see the watered-down Detroit lineup doing a lot of damage here. Of course, there are plenty of value pieces in the lineup these days, and I understand that they can be enticing salary savers, especially the guys in the middle of the lineup. I would stick to one or two value plays here as opposed to a full stack.

Elite Plays – Potential value pieces (James McCann, John Hicks, Jeimer Candelario)

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.311	0.304	0.230	35.4%	7.1%	23.2%	40.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.365	0.356	0.265	37.7%	17.1%	18.3%	41.5%	3B	$3,700	3B	$5,300	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.458	0.435	0.265	37.1%	14.2%	11.7%	37.1%	1B	$3,400	1B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.268	0.252	0.144	23.2%	11.1%	27.4%	47.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.403	0.371	0.243	43.7%	5.9%	21.0%	58.6%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.390	0.349	0.233	29.7%	6.4%	13.6%	35.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.274	0.256	0.045	15.7%	9.1%	22.3%	48.8%	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.260	0.192	0.052	11.9%	6.3%	28.1%	71.8%	SS	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Luke Maile	RIGHT	0.155	0.153	0.031	19.1%	2.9%	32.4%	55.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,300	N/A	N/A

I did not disparage the good name of Chad Bell above, but boy is his profile ugly. He has posted an ERA close to 6.00 over his 20 appearances, and his one start went about as well as you would imagine, as he gave up five runs over four innings while logging just one strikeout against the Indians. The Blue Jays have a team total of 5.3 runs this afternoon, and they will likely get overlooked a bit given the presence of the Indians and Astros in favorable matchups. Toronto is my favorite “sneaky stack” on the board, and they have the ability to put up a big number against a bad LHP.

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 9th

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Stackability Rating System:

Baltimore at Cleveland – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Yandy Diaz (value)

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall, Austin Jackson

Stackability – GREEN

NY Yankees at Texas – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Chase Headley, Aaron Judge, Starlin Castro

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Yuli Gurriel

Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick

Stackability – GREEN

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Khris Davis, Marcus Semien

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Domingo Santana

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Detroit at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Potential value pieces (James McCann, John Hicks, Jeimer Candelario)

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Steve Pearce, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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