MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 16th

by Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) Last Updated 2017-04-17 01:23:47

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Baltimore at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Baltimore						Toronto
			Dylan Bundy						J.A. Happ
			RIGHT						LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-110						8.5
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	28.7%	7.2%	19.3%	36.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.294	36.4%	7.3%	18.8%	46.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.319	26.6%	9.6%	25.6%	34.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.289	30.5%	7.3%	21.5%	40.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dylan Bundy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		20 of 29	Salary Rank:		12 of 29	Salary Rank:		13 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016-17	15	4.10	3.86	22.4%	8.4%	35.6%	27.7%	23.9%

Bundy’s eight-strikeout, no-walk, shutout performance against the Blue Jays two starts ago seems a bit less impressive these days, but Bundy is still a promising young arm. Today, he gets a rematch against the Jays, only this time Toronto will be down its best hitter, as Josh Donaldson was placed on the 10-day DL recently. We don’t want to place too much emphasis on home/road splits in a small sample, but Bundy’s are drastic (2.92 ERA at home, 5.03 on the road), which is not uncommon for young pitchers. The low strikeout total in his last game isn’t worrisome; the Red Sox are notoriously stingy in the K department, and in fact, Bundy has notched five or more strikeouts in five out of his last eight starts dating back to last year; the three games he was lower all came against Boston. He’s too risky to be considered for cash, but he does have tournament upside.

Quick Breakdown: Viable for GPPs given his affordable price tag and the strikeout upside; lacks the safety we want in cash games.

J.A. Happ
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$16,200
	Salary Rank:		9 of 29	Salary Rank:		8 of 29	Salary Rank:		7 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016-17	33	4.19	3.21	20.9%	7.3%	42.1%	31.7%	17.5%

J.A. Happ has allowed two homers in each of his first two starts this year, and yet he owns a pristine 1.81 SIERA. Despite leading the league in isolated power last season, Baltimore has not been a team that rakes lefty pitching; in fact, they rank in the bottom third of MLB in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and K% since last season. Happ isn’t spectacular at many aspects of pitching, but he does limit walks in general, and he hasn’t walked a single batter this year. He can generate enough strikeouts to be viable in cash, though there is certainly risk here.

Quick Breakdown: Viable for GPPs given the relative weakness of the pitching available on Sunday. Still, not a ton of upside.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Wednesday’s 12-run outburst showed us what an assemblage of power hitters like Baltimore’s can do if everything is clicking. Unfortunately, “everything clicking” seems to happen far less than it should for this team. Happ’s ability to limit walks will make it tougher for Baltimore to string together scoring stretches, making this a less-than-ideal stacking spot. However, there are a few interesting GPP one-offs. Manny Machado has elite upside, and ownership should remain in check. Welington Castillo crushed lefties last season and is borderline cash game playable. Craig Gentry is a very unappealing option, but he’s a cheap leadoff hitter, which counts for something.

Elite Plays – Welington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Craig Gentry

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

The Blue Jays scored two runs and won their second game of the season today. Sure, Kendrys Morales walkoff home run was exciting, but when a 2-1 win over Alec Asher and the Phillies is reason reason for excitement, you know things are bad. It’s still too early in the season to proclaim this offense dead, but it’s getting more and more difficult to click on Blue Jays while building lineups. Against Dylan Bundy, we can target a few lefties, including Morales, a switch hitter who prefers hitting right-handed but is passable as a lefty. If Ezequiel Carrera and Kevin Pillar bat high in the order, they’re viable punts, but ones without much upside. Finally, Jose Bautista and Russell Martin are priced so low at FanDuel that they have to be considered, although their cash game usefulness is becoming more and more suspect by the day.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales, Ezequiel Carrera, Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista (FD), Russell Martin (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Detroit						Cleveland
			Matt Boyd						Carlos Carrasco
			LEFT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-200						8.5
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.266	24.1%	8.1%	14.9%	57.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.319	38.6%	7.4%	25.1%	44.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.351	32.3%	7.6%	20.6%	34.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.288	34.3%	4.1%	25.4%	50.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Boyd
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,700	Salary:		$9,200
	Salary Rank:		27 of 29	Salary Rank:		29 of 29	Salary Rank:		29 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016-17	19	4.47	4.88	19.6%	7.7%	38.5%	30.8%	19.2%

Matt Boyd is not what I would consider a gas can, but he hasn’t enjoyed much success at the major league level. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in 12 of 14 starts to close out 2016, and he’s coming off six shutout innings against the Twins in which he fanned six batters, issued no walks, and allowed just one hit. He’s shown the tendency to give up a ton of fly balls to righties, though (48.8% last year, fifth-most in MLB) and therein lies the problem: if things go well, those fly balls will be caught (he had a 69 percent fly ball rate in that start against the Twins!), but if things don’t go well, those fly balls can leave the yard. Boyd’s 1.70 HR/9 since last year show that, more often than not, things haven’t gone well for Boyd.

Quick Breakdown: Against an Indians team that can load up on righties, Boyd carries too much risk to give much consideration despite his bargain bin price tag.

Carlos Carrasco
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,900	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$17,100
	Salary Rank:		2 of 29	Salary Rank:		5 of 29	Salary Rank:		5 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016-17	26	3.41	3.32	25.3%	5.6%	47.6%	36.2%	16.5%

Carlos Carrasco comes into a home game against the division rival Tigers off the heels of two solid starts against the Rangers and White Sox. When he’s on, he’s one of the most electric arms in Major League Baseball, as evidenced by the 30.2 K% he’s posted coming into this game. At time of writing, he’s a 2-1 favorite, and he’s at home, which should be a positive, but Carrasco has some of the weirder home/road splits you’ll find – since 2015, he’s got a 4.54 ERA at home and a 2.47 on the road. His estimators are much closer, so I’m sure that’s just noise. While he’ll have to navigate some tough bats, there’s no slam dunk cash game option for Sunday’s early slate, which makes him viable, especially at DraftKings where he’s a bit underpriced.

Quick Breakdown: Cash game viable with GPP upside.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

On a full slate, there’s not a ton of incentive to attack one of the slate’s best pitchers, but Carrasco has become prone to the long ball as he’s aged, and Progressive Field is a sneaky good power park (last year, only Yankee Stadium, Chase Field, Coors, Field, and Great American Ball Park yielded more home runs per game than Progressive). For that reason, a few Tigers make sense as deep tournament one-offs. Since last season, Miguel Cabrera has a crazy 41.3% hard contact rate against RHP, and Victor Martinez is a cheap way to fill your catcher slot at FanDuel. Nick Castellanos has also put up solid numbers against righties and, for some reason, is sub-$3k at FanDuel.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez (FD), Nick Castellanos (FD)

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Apart from Francisco Lindor, Cleveland’s offense has been pretty ho-hum to start the year. They do have a few right-handed bats who should be able to take advantage of Matt Boyd’s fly ball lean, and it starts with Edwin Encarnacion, who has struggled as an Indian but will surely turn it around at some point. Carlos Santana sacrifices some power against lefties, but he’s an elite contact hitter with just a 10.2 K% against them last season. Francisco Lindor has remarkably similar splits when batting from either side of the plate. Brandon Guyer and Jose Ramirez have had success against lefties in the past and are in play if they get favorable lineup spots. Michael Brantley puts up passable numbers against lefties and is worth being included in an top-of-the-order stack.

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez, Brandon Guyer, Michael Brantley

Stackability – GREEN

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Milwaukee						Cincinnati
			Wily Peralta						Sal Romano
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			CIN-105						9.0
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.369	32.1%	7.9%	14.3%	45.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.353	33.7%	7.5%	19.9%	55.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)

Pitcher Grind Down

Wily Peralta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$5,300	Salary:		$10,400
	Salary Rank:		25 of 29	Salary Rank:		27 of 29	Salary Rank:		27 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016-17	24	4.43	4.68	17.1%	7.7%	50.6%	32.9%	16.9%

Since August 30th of last season (49.1 innings pitched), Wily Peralta has compiled a 3.02 FIP, a 23.6 K%, and has allowed just 0.7 HR/9. Only two qualified starters matched or bettered those numbers over a full season, and their last names are Syndergaard and Fernandez. Obviously, that’s some small sample size, arbitrary end point trickery, but there is the possibility that Peralta is no longer the gas can DFS players once loved to take batters against. Peralta has two solid outings under his belt this year, and the Reds are an exploitable matchup. But I’m still not buying.

Quick Recommendation: If Peralta excels here, he could elevate himself into GPP territory for his next start (likely against the Cardinals).

Sal Romano
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:			Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$9,900
	Salary Rank:		of 29	Salary Rank:		28 of 29	Salary Rank:		28 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%

Sal Romano is a six-foot-five-inch, 23-year-old right-hander out of the Reds organization, and he’s making his MLB debut on Sunday. It’s risky targeting pitchers in their first starts for a variety of reasons: nerves, a potentially short leash, likely innings limits, etc. There are some positives working in Romano’s favor, though, namely his fastball that reaches the mid-to-upper-90s, his ability to limit walks, and a matchup with the strikeout-heavy Brewers. He’s not in the player pool at FanDuel, and at DraftKings, he’s at $5,000, which is $300 more than Matt Boyd, who feels much more reliable if you’re YOLOing a GPP lineup full of Mike Trouts and Bryce Harpers.

Quick Breakdown: Not even available at FanDuel, which should tell you something. At DK, avoid except in the deepest of tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Trivia time: who leads all MLB hitters in OPS after two weeks? If you guessed Eric Thames (1.373 OPS), you’re right? Apparently, Thames thinks he’s still in Korea. He’s crushing major league pitching, he remains dirt cheap at FanDuel, and the outfield eligibility is nice at DraftKings. Jonathan Villar has a crazy 36.7 K% this year, but he swiped three bags on Friday and he’s always in play for his steals upside. There are a few better outfield plays on Sunday, but Ryan Braun is rarely a bad play, particularly against an inexperienced pitcher. Travis Shaw has the platoon edge, and we’ve got a narrative alert: it’s a birthday game for Shaw. If you really want to play the narratives, roster Jesus Aguilar on Easter Sunday, and then send me your head-to-heads.

Elite Plays – Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, Jonathan Villar

Secondary Plays – Travis Shaw (Happy Birthday!)

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

For all of Peralta’s improvements as of late, his .368 wOBA against lefties since last year is still second-lowest on the slate, and his 14.6 K% is the lowest. Joey Votto is an elite play in all formats, and as always, Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza will be running if they reach base. Scott Schebler should have opportunities to drive in runs, and he homered out of the cleanup spot against a righty on Saturday. Assuming he holds onto the same lineup spot, he’s in play as a potentially low-owned tournament option. In his short MLB career, Adam Duvall has preferred to hit right-handed pitching, and he always goes underowned; the time to take advantage is when he’s at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park.

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler, Adam Duvall

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

NY Mets						Miami
			Matt Harvey						Dan Straily
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-128						8.0
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.353	32.7%	7.2%	18.4%	30.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.296	29.8%	12.8%	18.9%	33.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.315	27.5%	4.5%	19.4%	52.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.324	34.2%	6.3%	21.0%	30.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Harvey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		6 of 29	Salary Rank:		13 of 29	Salary Rank:		13 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016-17	18	4.27	4.71	18.9%	5.9%	40.7%	30.2%	24.8%

While Matt Harvey has yet to recapture the dominance of his 2015 campaign, he seems to finally be back to full health. In two beatable matchups this year (Braves, Phillies), he’s managed a stellar 3.01 SIERA and 22.2 K% while issuing just one walk in over 12 innings of work. His opponent on Sunday, the Marlins, have the reputation of not striking out much, but for what it’s worth, Jacob deGrom fanned 13 Marlins on Saturday. Harvey is a modest favorite on the road, and (as I’ll mention throughout today’s Grind Down), there isn’t a sure-fire cash game pitcher on the early slate, which raises Harvey’s appeal.

Quick Breakdown: Modest upside, but cash game playable on weak slate for pitching.

Dan Straily
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		17 of 29	Salary Rank:		18 of 29	Salary Rank:		18 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016-17	32	4.72	3.93	20.0%	9.3%	32.1%	32.3%	15.0%

Dan Straily is one of those pitchers who is better in real life than in daily fantasy (not to say he’s good, but still better). After a disastrous first start this year when he was pulled in the fourth after allowing five earned to the Nationals without recording a single strikeout, he rebounded a bit, lasting five innings and striking out five Braves in his last start. There’s no reason to target Straily on a full slate, especially against the high-powered Mets, who lead MLB with 21 home runs this season.

Quick Breakdown: Low floor, low ceiling – not exactly the combo we look for in our pitchers. Easy fade.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

It’s been bombs away for the Mets hitters this season, and despite the negative ballpark, the Mets continue to make a fun team to target for GPPs given the sheer volume of power bats they throw out every day. Against a fly ball pitcher like Straily, it’s even better. Yoenis Cespedes is the prize here, as Straily gives up a higher fly ball rate to righties, but Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson (especially if he’s batting leadoff), Michael Conforto, and Asdrubal Cabrera all make for fine plays, as well.

Elite Plays – Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce (DK), Curtis Granderson (if batting leadoff),

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce (FD), Curtis Granderson (if further down in the order), Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Since he was untouchable in 2015, Matt Harvey has not proven himself a pitcher who needs to be avoided for DFS purposes. In particular, the lefties in the Marlins order can be targeted, as Harvey gave up a .365 wOBA and higher than average hard contact against opposite-handed hitters last year. Christian Yelich looks poised for a breakout, and Justin Bour is a power bat who fits more in GPPs. Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna could hit 75 home runs this year if both can stay healthy, and while Harvey is more stingy to righties, they’re always in play as one-offs. J.T. Realmuto is a right-handed batter who prefers right-handed pitching, and he should bat second in the order again.

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto (FD)

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET

San Diego						Atlanta
			Trevor Cahill						Bartolo Colon
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			ATL-123						8.0
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.294	35.7%	12.9%	19.7%	52.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.327	36.7%	5.1%	16.2%	36.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.280	26.6%	11.8%	26.4%	58.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.286	34.0%	3.0%	16.8%	48.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Cahill
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,500	Salary:		$9,000
	Salary Rank:		27 of 29	Salary Rank:		30 of 29	Salary Rank:		30 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016-17	2	3.92	2.78	23.6%	12.3%	55.8%	30.6%	19.7%

Sure, it’s the Braves, and sure, Cahill actually put together a solid performance in his first start of the year against the lefty-heavy lineup of the Dodgers. But if you’re seriously considering Trevor Cahill an option, it may be too late to save you.

Quick Breakdown: One of the easiest fades of the day.

Bartolo Colon
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$12,400
	Salary Rank:		10 of 29	Salary Rank:		23 of 29	Salary Rank:		23 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016-17	34	4.35	3.37	16.5%	4.1%	42.4%	35.4%	16.5%

Bartolo Colon defies so many laws of physics, I’m starting to think he’s an alien. All he does is throw fastball after fastball, and yet he’s somehow a competent major league pitcher into his 40s. But I’ll be honest; the most exciting thing about Colon signing with the Braves is that we get to see him bat for another year. He gave up six earned to the Marlins in his last start. That’s the downside of rostering him, and unfortunately, his all-fastball repertoire doesn’t yield many strikeouts. Even as a home favorite, the risk outweighs the reward (I thought I’d make it through this write-up without a weight joke…I was wrong).

Quick Breakdown: It’s much more fun to watch Big Sexy than it is to roster him. Move along.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

The Padres have some exciting young bats. Unfortunately, most of them are right-handed, and Bartolo Colon suppresses righties, especially in the power department (just a 28.2% fly ball rate and 0.55 HR/9 to RHB last year). That puts Hunter Renfroe out of play. However, given Tyler Flowers’ inability to throw out base runners, some of the Padres’ speed guys (Manuel Margot, Travis Jankowski, and to a lesser extent Wil Myers) enter consideration as secondary plays. Yangervis Solarte has been a pleasant surprise for the Padres this year, and he’s historically been a bit better from the left side of the plate. Ryan Schimpf crazy fly ball rate against right-handed pitching means any time he gets hold of one, it could land in the seats.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Manuel Margot, Travis Jankowski, Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte, Ryan Schimpf

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

While I don’t have much faith in Trevor Cahill’s ability to be an effective MLB starter over the long term, he’s transformed himself into a pitcher with an enormous ground ball rate against right-handed hitters. That makes stacking difficult, although as always with the Braves, Freddie Freeman makes for an elite one-off. Ender Inciarte, coming off an uncharacteristic three home runs in the past two games, warrants a mention, as well. He’s not a power hitter (he hit three home runs total in 131 games for the Braves last season), but he’s a high-contact leadoff hitter who is always safe for cash games.

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte

Stackability – ORANGE

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