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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 22nd

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-07-22 16:13:01

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

San Diego at Philadelphia – 12:05 PM ET

San Diego Philadelphia
Article Image Tyson Ross Article Image Nick Pivetta
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-153 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.368 0.365 36.9% 87.3 18.8% 45.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.357 0.353 35.3% 89.0 25.0% 41.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.250 0.307 39.3% 87.9 23.6% 41.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.284 32.9% 87.5 29.3% 48.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyson Ross
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 10 6.17 7.71 15.1% 15.6% 46.8% 32.3% 14.6% 91.6 6.2%
2018 19 4.34 4.32 21.1% 9.4% 43.5% 38.0% 20.1% 90.9 9.1%
L14 2 5.19 10.80 18.0% 12.8% 40.7% 25.9% 18.5% 91.2 8.5%

Tyson Ross has a 4.35 SIERA along with a 21.1% strikeout rate so far this season. Walks have always been somewhat problematic for him, and this year (9.4% BBs) is no different. Ross also isn’t keeping the ball on the ground nearly as frequently as he did during his prime and he’s yielded a hard-hit rate of 38%. One good note for Ross today is that he’ll be facing a Phillies lineup with the second-highest K-rate in the league against right-handed pitching this season. While there is strikeout potential here, Ross is also getting a park downgrade and Philly does have some lefties that can hurt him. The right-hander has allowed a .369 wOBA to lefties on the year.

Quick Breakdown: The blow-up risk outweighs the potential strikeout upside for Ross in this one.

Nick Pivetta
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 26 4.32 6.02 24.0% 9.8% 43.8% 35.5% 15.9% 94.4 8.7%
2018 19 3.44 4.58 27.4% 7.3% 45.5% 34.0% 15.5% 94.8 11.9%
L14 2 3.22 3.86 21.4% 7.1% 65.5% 55.2% 20.7% 94.9 11.9%

Pivetta bounced back from a couple of rocky outings to enjoy a solid start against the Orioles last time out. The 25-year-old boasts an excellent 27.4% strikeout rate on the year along with 7.3% walks. His 3.45 SIERA is quite a bit more favorable than his 4.58 ERA, as well. The right-hander has allowed 14 homers through 20 starts, but today he gets a glorious matchup with a weak Padres lineup full of right-handed bats. Pivetta has shut RHBs down while struggling with lefties. As long as he can get past Eric Hosmer, there’s massive upside here. The Padres have the worst K-rate in the league against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Pivetta is a strong play against the Pads.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

I’ll be ignoring the righties and their .295 collective wOBA against Pivetta on the year, but lefties have a .357 mark against him. Eric Hosmer isn’t a big power guy, but he’s a solid overall hitter and Citizens Bank Park is a favorable hitting setting. Hosmer probably isn’t worth prioritizing, but he’s in a strong individual spot today. Otherwise, there’s not much to like here for the Padres.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Travis Jankowski LEFT 0.300 84.4 0.083 24.0% 11.5% 12.0% 60.9% OF $2,500 N/A N/A
2 Carlos Asuaje LEFT 0.346 87.9 0.118 43.2% 11.1% 19.7% 34.6% 2B $2,600 N/A N/A
3 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.422 92.0 0.218 54.1% 4.9% 20.7% 45.9% OF $3,700 N/A N/A
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.319 90.1 0.166 38.9% 9.9% 24.5% 61.7% 1B $3,000 N/A N/A
5 Christian Villanueva RIGHT 0.263 85.4 0.155 29.7% 5.1% 27.0% 32.8% 3B $2,900 N/A N/A
6 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.297 87.9 0.107 36.2% 9.1% 15.9% 49.7% OF $2,800 N/A N/A
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.286 87.1 0.080 41.4% 8.9% 24.3% 43.6% SS $2,700 N/A N/A
8 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.264 83.8 0.136 31.6% 7.3% 32.3% 36.8% C $2,500 N/A N/A
9 Tyson Ross RIGHT 0.195 83.4 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 38.5% 50.0% P $6,800 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.299 86.9 0.118 36.0% 7.5% 23.9% 46.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Philadelphia

Like Pivetta, Ross has really struggled in terms of getting lefties out. LHBs have a .369 wOBA against him and his K-rate dips to just 18.8% against them. The Phils have some solid lefties to throw his way, and I think they make for an intriguing mini-stack. Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera and Carlos Santana are the top options, with Nick Williams not far behind. Ross has been effective enough against right-handed bats to where I think you can get away with a Rhys Hoskins fade here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.326 83.3 0.132 25.0% 14.1% 21.2% 42.9% 2B $3,500 N/A N/A
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.373 88.4 0.224 33.3% 11.6% 27.0% 28.7% OF $3,700 N/A N/A
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.304 86.7 0.191 26.9% 6.9% 21.0% 42.0% OF $3,600 N/A N/A
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.383 89.1 0.188 35.6% 20.9% 14.8% 36.8% 1B $3,400 N/A N/A
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.372 89.0 0.214 33.8% 9.5% 24.3% 45.6% OF $2,800 N/A N/A
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.328 88.8 0.185 24.1% 5.9% 14.6% 54.0% 3B $3,000 N/A N/A
7 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.312 85.7 0.110 25.5% 5.1% 21.7% 39.2% SS $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Nick Pivetta RIGHT 0.202 82.4 0.053 18.2% 4.8% 42.9% 70.0% P $8,100 N/A N/A
9 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.336 87.7 0.168 38.2% 11.5% 32.8% 32.8% C $2,500 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.326 86.8 0.163 29.0% 10.0% 24.5% 43.6%

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez

Secondary Plays – Nick Williams

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Baltimore Toronto
Article Image Andrew Cashner Article Image J.A. Happ
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-200 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.355 0.366 32.2% 89.7 21.7% 37.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.227 0.272 27.1% 87.0 28.6% 59.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.361 0.366 30.9% 88.2 14.9% 44.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.315 30.9% 88.8 26.0% 40.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Cashner
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $10,900
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 5.52 3.40 12.2% 9.1% 48.6% 28.4% 18.5% 93.4 6.1%
2018 18 4.81 4.56 18.3% 9.7% 41.2% 31.6% 18.9% 92.8 7.1%
L14 2 4.09 5.11 19.6% 5.9% 44.7% 42.1% 21.1% 92.6 6.9%

Andrew Cashner miraculously struck out 7 in his last start, but he also surrendered 5 runs on 5 hits in 6.1 innings. On the season, the right-hander has a below-average strikeout rate of about 18% and a walk rate dangerously close to 10%. He has done well in terms of limiting hard contact again, but his ground ball numbers have declined considerably. Cashner has also been taken deep 16 times, which is more than he surrendered all of last year. As usual, he’s a guy with minimal upside and blow-up risk. Those aren’t positive attributes.

Quick Breakdown: Cashner is an easy fade.

J.A. Happ
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $17,200
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.11 3.53 22.7% 7.4% 46.9% 26.7% 20.3% 91.8 9.5%
2018 19 3.62 4.29 26.5% 7.7% 44.4% 30.2% 20.7% 91.9 10.1%
L14 2 4.86 8.53 29.7% 18.9% 44.4% 50.0% 22.2% 93.2 10.4%

J.A. Happ entered the All-Star break by having his face punched in in 3 straight starts. The lefty has allowed 18 runs (13 earned) in those outings while failing to go beyond 5.2 innings in any of them. Toronto does give him a long leash even when he struggles, and today Happ gets a decent matchup against a Manny Machado-less Orioles bunch. He has an excellent 26.3% strikeout rate on the year and he has kept the hard contact down. Happ’s poor form has also caused his price to come down quite a bit, which puts him squarely in play. The Orioles do have quite a bit of power from the right side, but this is shaping up to be a pretty good bounce-back spot for him.

Quick Breakdown: Happ is an elite play in all formats, especially with his price discount.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

While I have plenty of interest in J.A. Happ today, a hedge with Orioles right-handed power isn’t a bad way to approach things when it comes to GPPs. Mark Trumbo, Jonathan Schoop and Adam Jones are pretty clearly your primary targets on that front. You can round things out with Tim Beckham, especially if he finds himself hitting leadoff. Those 4 make for some likely low-owned options with upside in tournaments, but I won’t be bothering with any of them in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.276 84.1 0.154 33.3% 9.3% 27.9% 42.3% SS $2,500 3B $3,100 SS $5,700
2 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.297 86.4 0.080 25.3% 7.3% 13.5% 44.6% 2B $3,200 2B $3,300 2B $6,800
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.320 88.0 0.074 27.3% 1.8% 9.0% 37.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,200 CF $6,500
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.326 92.8 0.162 35.3% 8.0% 22.7% 49.0% OF $3,000 1B/OF $3,300 DH $6,800
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.269 90.0 0.165 31.9% 8.9% 37.8% 40.4% 1B $2,400 1B $2,700 IF/OF $5,800
6 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.421 91.0 0.232 34.9% 10.9% 13.6% 43.4% OF $2,400 3B/OF $3,100 3B $5,500
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.290 88.0 0.123 26.3% 7.7% 25.6% 68.4% OF $2,600 1B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,700
8 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.329 83.6 0.176 25.0% 9.5% 28.6% 33.3% 3B $2,100 3B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.292 85.0 0.093 18.6% 3.5% 19.3% 39.5% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,400
Team Averages 0.313 87.7 0.140 28.7% 7.4% 22.0% 44.2%

Elite Plays – Jonathan Schoop

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Tim Beckham

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

Andrew Cashner is one of those guys that keeps skating by despite the numbers saying regression is coming at some point. Lefties have historically given the right-hander more trouble over the years, so that’s a good place to start with Toronto. Justin Smoak is the best hitter, while Kendrys Morales is a suitable pivot. Curtis Granderson is pretty homer-dependent, but he’s another worthwhile option in the outfield. Right-handed bats also have a .361 wOBA against Cashner this season, so someone like Teoscar Hernandez or Randal Grichuk are viable tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.339 87.9 0.204 35.5% 13.0% 28.5% 32.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
2 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.379 92.0 0.222 39.1% 5.4% 25.6% 37.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 LF $8,300
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.404 92.3 0.271 38.0% 17.9% 26.0% 32.1% 1B $3,800 1B $4,700 1B $9,100
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.331 88.1 0.158 31.0% 7.6% 16.0% 42.5% 3B $2,600 2B/3B $3,400 3B $6,500
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.409 93.5 0.212 45.3% 10.3% 22.4% 42.7% 1B $2,500 1B $4,000 1B $7,400
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.311 90.7 0.134 30.6% 16.2% 24.1% 46.8% C $2,400 C $3,200 C $6,800
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.331 91.2 0.256 38.5% 7.4% 25.7% 42.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 RF $7,500
8 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.348 89.2 0.183 36.2% 3.4% 11.9% 44.3% SS $2,500 SS $3,900 SS $7,300
9 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.293 88.7 0.123 26.0% 6.0% 22.5% 61.5% 2B $2,700 2B $3,700 2B $7,600
Team Averages 0.349 90.4 0.196 35.6% 9.7% 22.5% 42.5%

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Boston at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Boston Detroit
Article Image Chris Sale Article Image Blaine Hardy
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-290 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.191 0.200 21.3% 81.1 39.8% 48.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.267 0.334 34.0% 87.6 12.9% 42.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.254 0.252 27.8% 85.3 36.7% 44.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 0.294 35.9% 87.6 20.4% 42.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,500 Salary: $13,400 Salary: $25,800
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 2.58 2.90 36.2% 5.1% 38.7% 29.7% 18.5% 94.4 14.9%
2018 20 2.39 2.23 37.2% 6.1% 44.9% 26.7% 28.5% 94.6 16.0%
L14 2 1.40 0.69 47.1% 3.9% 48.0% 24.0% 28.0% 96.8 17.2%

The Tigers have hit left-handed pitching well this season, but that shouldn’t be steering you clear of Chris Sale. Baseball’s best pitcher has been lighting it up once again this season to the tune of a filthy 37.2% strikeout rate along with minimal walks and a soft contact rate higher than his hard contact rate. When opposing hitters do make contact, the ball is usually hit weakly on the ground. He’s expensive, as usual, but Sale is the top overall option today by a fairly wide margin.

Quick Breakdown: The price is steep, but this is a great spot to be playing Sale.

Blaine Hardy
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 4.66 5.94 18.0% 8.3% 33.0% 36.5% 20.0% 89.9 10.0%
2018 8 4.35 3.31 18.3% 6.3% 42.3% 35.3% 19.2% 87.8 8.1%
L14 0 1.57 1.59 31.8% 4.6% 76.9% 28.6% 14.3% 89.1 8.3%

Hardy has made 8 starts for the Tigers this season, but he’s been doing most of his work lately out of the bullpen. Considering he hasn’t thrown more than 35 pitches in a game in a month, it’s fair to say he’s probably not stretched out enough to pitch deep into this game. Hardy is also a low-strikeout lefty taking on what may be the best offense in baseball. Hardy is a guy that can be deployed as a punt in certain matchups, but this isn’t one of them.

Quick Breakdown: Hardy is one of the easiest fades on the board.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Blaine Hardy is a fly ball lefty that has allowed a .325 wOBA against righties this season. The Red Sox have a few righties you may have heard of that you’ll want to play today. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are their names. Xander Bogaerts and Eduardo Nunez are also viable from the right side. Hardy’s been tough on lefties, but Detroit only has one other left-hander (Daniel Stumpf) in the bullpen behind him. Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland make for interesting GPP plays as a result. For cash games, I’m sticking with the RHBs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.517 91.9 0.453 42.7% 15.4% 9.9% 35.3% OF $5,100 OF $5,900 RF $11,300
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.270 85.2 0.195 18.6% 8.7% 26.1% 45.8% OF $4,400 OF $5,200 LF $10,000
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.416 93.8 0.207 50.0% 6.5% 31.2% 39.7% OF $4,800 OF $5,300 RF $10,000
4 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.483 87.7 0.271 30.6% 7.6% 15.2% 38.8% 1B $3,700 1B/OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,200
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.376 91.8 0.130 35.3% 15.9% 22.0% 33.3% SS $4,200 SS $5,100 SS $9,700
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.312 89.1 0.179 37.5% 8.1% 27.0% 50.0% 1B $3,400 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.302 86.4 0.080 26.0% 6.4% 16.0% 50.0% 2B $2,800 2B/3B $2,900 2B $5,800
8 Brock Holt LEFT 0.276 84.9 0.061 17.4% 15.4% 25.6% 63.6% 2B $2,600 2B/SS $3,400 2B $6,600
9 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.323 84.4 0.100 36.7% 6.8% 25.0% 40.0% C $2,500 C $2,900 C $5,900
Team Averages 0.364 88.4 0.186 32.8% 10.1% 22.0% 44.1%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Andrew Benintendi

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers are facing Chris Sale today. Nick Castellanos is interesting as an unowned GPP dart, but otherwise the Tigers offense is one you’ll want to avoid altogether.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.364 88.2 0.141 37.3% 9.9% 18.3% 52.9% 2B $2,900 2B/OF $3,300 1B $6,600
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.322 86.4 0.211 37.1% 9.0% 28.0% 48.4% 3B $2,900 3B $3,000 3B $5,400
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.432 90.3 0.275 50.0% 8.9% 18.8% 33.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,400
4 John Hicks RIGHT 0.382 91.4 0.179 33.3% 11.7% 22.1% 39.2% 1B $2,500 1B/C $3,100 1B $5,800
5 James McCann RIGHT 0.384 86.4 0.155 35.2% 7.8% 22.1% 44.4% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,600
6 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.311 85.7 0.085 24.3% 5.7% 10.2% 41.9% C $2,100 1B $2,400 1B $5,000
7 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.268 81.1 0.182 27.1% 4.3% 25.7% 30.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 CF $6,800
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.322 83.8 0.172 22.6% 4.2% 5.6% 37.7% SS $2,100 SS $2,800 SS $5,800
9 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.294 90.4 0.145 50.9% 5.9% 24.7% 45.5% OF $2,200 OF $2,700 CF $5,800
Team Averages 0.342 87.1 0.172 35.3% 7.5% 19.5% 41.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos (GPP flier)

Stackability – RED

Miami at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Miami Tampa Bay
Article Image Trevor Richards Article Image Chris Archer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -173 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.275 0.297 33.3% 84.7 22.1% 33.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.360 0.358 40.3% 88.7 19.3% 43.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.401 0.401 50.5% 90.2 18.9% 40.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.301 0.330 42.6% 90.6 28.0% 44.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Richards
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,700
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 13 4.77 4.74 20.4% 11.1% 37.3% 42.6% 16.5% 91.1 8.9%
L14 3 5.10 3.68 20.3% 13.0% 29.5% 44.4% 20.0% 91.0 9.5%

Trevor Richards is a rookie right-hander with a 20.4% strikeout and an 11.1% walk rate on the year. He’s allowed hard hits at a 42.6% clip and his SIERA of 4.77 is right in line with his 4.74 ERA. He has only conceded 5 homers in 13 starts, but he can likely thank his spacious home ballpark for that. Today Richards gets a league downgrade into the AL to pitch to a Rays lineup missing one of its best bats in Wilson Ramos. On a slate with no shortage of pitching, there seems to be no real point in wasting a roster spot on a guy like Richards that comes without a ton of upside.

Quick Breakdown: There are several better options than Richards on this slate.

Chris Archer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,800
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 34 3.44 4.07 29.2% 7.0% 42.0% 39.4% 13.2% 95.5 13.4%
2018 15 3.90 4.29 24.0% 8.1% 43.8% 41.5% 17.0% 94.5 13.0%
L14 2 3.57 4.70 26.3% 7.9% 44.0% 52.0% 16.0% 94.5 15.8%

Chris Archer is a strong strikeout right-hander who is prone to blow-ups thanks to the hard contact he allowed. The 24.% strikeout rate this season is respectable, but the hard-hit rate over 41% is cause for concern. All those hard hits has led to a freakishly high .333 BABIP against him. You’d think that would come down eventually, but Archer also allowed a hard contact rate over 39% last season that led to a .325 BABIP against him. If he can start inducing more soft contact not all of those balls will be finding holes. Archer has lasted just 7.2 innings combined in his 2 starts since returning from the DL, too. He did throw 93 pitches last time out, so a limit should no longer be a concern. The Marlins don’t strike out nearly as often as we’d like, but we know Archer comes with plenty of upside and this is a strong matchup from a run prevention standpoint. I’d prefer to play J.A. Happ in the same price range, but Archer is right there with him as a solid option today.

Quick Breakdown: Archer is a strong option today against the Marlins despite the shaky recent form.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

I respect Archer’s talent while not respecting the Marlins’ lineup on the other side. That said, he has still been roughed up by lefties this season to the tune of a .360 wOBA and 40.3% hard hits. The ballpark stinks for hitting, but this looks like a decent spot overall for a power LHB like Justin Bour. Derek Dietrich is the next-best left-handed bat in the lineup. Both are more secondary plays on this slate, however.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.353 88.4 0.160 36.6% 6.3% 20.9% 40.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,500
2 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.359 89.7 0.124 37.4% 7.5% 17.6% 51.8% OF $3,400 3B/OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,300
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.396 91.3 0.256 42.8% 6.1% 15.6% 43.4% C $3,500 C $4,500 C $9,000
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.384 90.4 0.241 42.2% 16.8% 25.8% 39.7% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.321 87.7 0.120 37.1% 5.7% 18.8% 48.1% 2B $3,300 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
6 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.288 89.2 0.070 28.8% 4.8% 19.0% 46.3% 3B $2,300 3B $2,900 3B $5,900
7 JT Riddle LEFT 0.317 87.8 0.183 33.0% 4.7% 19.5% 47.4% SS $2,500 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.296 84.7 0.092 30.2% 4.2% 14.2% 55.0% 3B $2,200 3B/SS $3,100 SS $5,900
9 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.318 88.4 0.089 36.6% 12.7% 22.3% 50.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 CF $6,900
Team Averages 0.337 88.6 0.148 36.1% 7.6% 19.3% 46.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Tampa Bay

The Rays find themselves in a better spot than the Marlins, but that’s not saying much. So far this season, Richards has actually shown pretty staunch reverse splits. He has kept left-handers to a wOBA of .276 compared to a .401 mark for righties. The sample size isn’t huge, but his strikeout and batted ball numbers are also better against lefties. There isn’t a ton to like here from the right side without Ramos around, but a Daniel Robertson makes for a solid source of salary relief. C.J. Cron has plenty of pop, but he’s also priced too high for my liking, at least on DraftKings.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.302 89.8 0.110 37.0% 5.8% 21.5% 48.9% 2B $2,900 2B $3,800 2B $7,200
2 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.320 86.1 0.109 35.7% 12.9% 28.2% 48.7% 2B $2,900 OF $2,100 2B $7,300
3 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.391 90.5 0.263 47.2% 16.5% 20.0% 34.7% 1B $3,300 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.352 87.5 0.226 36.8% 5.3% 25.2% 44.3% 1B $3,500 1B $4,500 1B $9,300
5 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.300 88.3 0.243 50.0% 5.1% 43.6% 30.0% 1B $2,200 1B $3,400 IF/OF $6,500
6 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.294 84.2 0.136 31.2% 7.0% 25.2% 34.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 CF $7,700
7 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.288 84.3 0.114 27.1% 8.8% 18.9% 45.8% OF $2,800 OF $4,200 CF $8,300
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.305 85.5 0.098 36.9% 4.5% 16.8% 36.7% SS $2,700 SS $3,100 SS $5,800
9 Jesus Sucre RIGHT 0.265 83.4 0.029 25.8% 5.3% 12.0% 36.7% C $2,200 C $2,500 C $5,100
Team Averages 0.313 86.6 0.148 36.4% 7.9% 23.5% 40.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Daniel Robertson, C.J. Cron

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Cincinnati
Article Image Nick Kingham Article Image Matt Harvey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-118 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.361 0.363 35.0% 89.4 16.2% 38.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.369 42.0% 90.3 16.6% 38.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.257 0.295 35.8% 91.0 31.5% 45.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.299 0.325 35.1% 88.4 18.8% 48.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

NOTE: Ivan Nova is starting for the Pirates on Sunday

Nick Kingham
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 9 3.69 4.26 23.9% 5.6% 41.8% 35.4% 16.3% 92.3 11.4%
L14 3 3.72 5.28 23.2% 7.3% 54.3% 31.9% 17.0% 92.5 10.5%

Nova is an average right-hander that keeps the ball on the ground pretty well and doesn’t rack up many strikeouts. The Dominican veteran has a K-rate of 18% this season along with a non-existent walk rate. His hard-hit rate of 34.3% is right around where he’s been for a few years, while his 4.08 SIERA is perfectly unexciting. Nova gets a park downgrade going into Cincy and the Reds have enough solid left-handed bats to give him some trouble. This isn’t the spot to take the Ivan Nova plunge.

Quick Breakdown: Nova is his usual fadeable self today.

Matt Harvey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,700
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 18 5.44 6.70 15.6% 10.9% 43.0% 32.5% 24.1% 93.8 7.5%
2018 16 4.39 4.63 17.7% 6.2% 43.7% 38.5% 16.2% 93.8 8.5%
L14 2 4.11 2.53 18.4% 6.1% 52.8% 30.6% 16.7% 94.5 9.1%

Matt Harvey has actually quietly been decent since joining the Reds. He still isn’t giving us the massive strikeout numbers we saw during his early days with the Mets, but he has kept the ball on the ground at a nearly 45% clip along with a 4.29 ERA. Neither number is great, but the fact that it marks improvement for Harvey shows just how bad he was before. His 17.7% strikeout rate on the year is underwhelming, and he has continued to struggle with lefties. The likely outcome here today is that Harvey goes 5 or 6 innings while allowing a few earned runs and picking up a handful of strikeouts. The Pirates do have some left-handed bats that can give him trouble, but he isn’t the worst cheap option on the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Harvey figures to enjoy another unremarkable start today, which may be good enough to put him into the punt SP2 conversation.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Harvey has yielded a .349 wOBA along with 8 of his 13 home runs to lefties so far in 2018. The Pirates aren’t an amazing lineup by any means, but they do have a little thunder from the left side. Corey Dickerson, Colin Moran, Gregory Polanco and Josh Bell are your primary targets, and I think they’re stackable given the park upgrade going into Cincy. Harvey has actually been fairly effective against righties, so I’m fine passing on an expensive Starling Marte in this spot. Pirates bats can be used as one-offs in cash games or as a LHB stack in GPPs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.339 87.3 0.177 35.6% 3.7% 11.6% 35.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,500 LF $9,200
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.324 86.8 0.184 30.1% 6.0% 20.4% 46.3% OF $4,000 OF $5,600 CF $10,200
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.377 90.8 0.257 36.3% 13.5% 22.2% 34.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,900 RF $8,800
4 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.336 89.4 0.148 31.5% 7.5% 15.0% 52.2% C $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,300
5 Colin Moran LEFT 0.363 88.4 0.159 32.1% 8.3% 14.6% 43.2% 3B $2,600 3B $3,800 3B $7,300
6 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.335 88.6 0.133 29.9% 10.4% 16.8% 51.0% 1B $3,000 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
7 Sean Rodriguez RIGHT 0.207 86.4 0.075 21.3% 12.0% 35.9% 38.3% 2B $2,000 OF/SS $2,700 2B $5,600
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.315 87.7 0.135 27.0% 6.9% 23.7% 40.1% SS $2,600 SS $3,400 SS $6,400
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.094 76.2 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 69.2% P $7,200 P $5,700 P $11,000
Team Averages 0.299 86.8 0.141 27.1% 7.6% 23.4% 45.6%

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Colin Moran

Secondary Plays – Austin Meadows

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Cincinnati

We typically prefer to roster the lefties in the Reds lineup, and that’s no different today against Nova, who has always had a problem getting them out. Joey Votto profiles as a great play in this spot, followed by Scooter Gennett and Scott Schebler. Tucker Barnhart is a decent cheap catcher, while Jesse Winker grades out as a more secondary option in the outfield. The Reds may go a little overlooked today, so this is a stack I love for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.312 83.0 0.106 31.5% 6.2% 12.7% 36.7% SS $3,300 SS $4,700 SS $9,300
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.365 87.4 0.197 40.6% 7.9% 16.5% 37.6% 2B $3,800 2B $5,300 2B $9,400
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.459 89.0 0.176 39.4% 17.9% 12.5% 33.2% 1B $3,900 1B $4,800 1B $8,700
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.391 91.5 0.252 50.9% 9.6% 21.1% 36.7% 3B $3,700 3B $5,200 3B $9,600
5 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.407 91.8 0.137 48.1% 14.5% 12.4% 40.8% OF $3,000 OF $4,900 RF $8,700
6 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.334 86.0 0.105 39.5% 9.6% 16.9% 42.4% C $2,300 C $3,400 C $6,900
7 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.350 87.4 0.186 33.8% 6.8% 27.5% 35.1% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,700
8 Matt Harvey RIGHT 0.169 77.1 0.000 20.0% 6.5% 29.0% 62.5% P $6,400 P $6,900 P $13,700
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.245 79.0 0.074 20.8% 10.7% 23.8% 45.1% OF $2,600 OF $4,200 CF $8,200
Team Averages 0.337 85.8 0.137 36.1% 10.0% 19.2% 41.1%

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Scott Schebler, Scooter Gennett, Tucker Barnhart

Secondary Plays – Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles