MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 17th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Baltimore at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET
| Baltimore | NY Yankees | ||||||||||||||
 | Ubaldo Jimenez |  | Sonny Gray | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| NYY-190 | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.410 | 0.365 | 34.1% | 10.5% | 22.1% | 37.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.262 | 0.292 | 26.7% | 8.1% | 22.5% | 54.4% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.347 | 0.339 | 37.5% | 8.3% | 19.2% | 48.9% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.295 | 0.304 | 28.6% | 7.8% | 23.6% | 54.1% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Ubaldo Jimenez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $10,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 26 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 26 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 | 4.75 | 5.44 | 19.6% | 11.3% | 49.0% | 30.9% | 19.2% | |
| 2017 | 22 | 4.60 | 6.80 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 43.8% | 35.9% | 17.9% | |
| L30 | 3 | 4.88 | 11.77 | 14.7% | 4.4% | 34.0% | 34.0% | 18.9% | |
Happy Sunday, Grinders! As with last week, we have very small prize pools for MLB today. The largest GPP contests on FanDuel and DraftKings have a total prize pool of $15,000, which is the smallest of any day so far this season. I will be a little more brief in the analysis today. We start with Ubaldo Jimenez, who has been one of the most inconsistent arms in baseball for years now. You never know what to expect with him, but he is nowhere near the fantasy radar in a road matchup against a Yankees team that is very dangerous against RHP. The Yankees are also on fire right now, having scored 30 total runs in the first three games of this series.
Quick Breakdown: Jimenez can safely be avoided in all formats.
| Sonny Gray | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,900 | Salary: | $9,600 | Salary: | $18,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 6 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | 4.32 | 5.69 | 18.2% | 8.1% | 53.9% | 33.6% | 16.1% | |
| 2017 | 23 | 3.93 | 3.22 | 23.1% | 7.9% | 54.2% | 27.7% | 16.4% | |
| L30 | 5 | 4.20 | 2.64 | 21.9% | 7.0% | 47.2% | 25.8% | 11.2% | |
In his eight starts as a member of the Yankees, Sonny Gray has allowed more than two runs just one time. He has also started to pick up the strikeouts of late, as he has amassed nine strikeouts in three of his last four outings. While the matchup is dangerous today against the Orioles, the Yankees have the upper hand in this matchup. Gray likely won’t be highly owned because of the opponent, making him a very sneaky option for tournament play.
Quick Breakdown: Gray carries some risk in cash games, but he is very much a live GPP option this afternoon.
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.344 | 0.317 | 0.177 | 41.0% | 5.3% | 29.1% | 47.7% | SS | $3,200 | SS | $3,900 | SS | $7,600 |
| 2 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.364 | 0.221 | 37.9% | 7.9% | 16.5% | 43.1% | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $4,700 | 3B | $9,200 |
| 3 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.358 | 0.312 | 0.200 | 33.5% | 4.3% | 20.5% | 40.9% | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $7,500 |
| 4 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.310 | 0.195 | 31.2% | 3.4% | 17.8% | 44.5% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
| 5 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.348 | 0.238 | 35.5% | 6.5% | 22.9% | 51.8% | OF | $3,500 | 1B/OF | $3,500 | IF/OF | $6,900 |
| 6 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.289 | 0.303 | 0.162 | 31.2% | 7.5% | 24.5% | 43.3% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,800 |
| 7 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.326 | 0.341 | 0.258 | 45.1% | 11.9% | 35.0% | 35.6% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $2,900 | IF/OF | $5,700 |
| 8 | Welington Castillo | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.331 | 0.199 | 37.3% | 5.7% | 25.3% | 42.0% | C | $3,100 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,600 |
| 9 | Joey Rickard | RIGHT | 0.251 | 0.231 | 0.107 | 22.3% | 2.2% | 27.3% | 36.7% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,500 | RF | $4,800 |
Gray has held both lefties and righties to a sub-.300 wOBA this season, and he has a 54%+ ground ball rate against hitters from each side of the plate. I am not interested in much from the Baltimore side here. Tim Beckham has cooled in September but has otherwise been very good since being traded to Baltimore, and he has a .605 wOBA in ten career at bats against Gray. If you are inclined to believe in the small sample size, he might be worth a look. I’m not really going anywhere with the Baltimore bats today.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Adam Jones
Stackability – ORANGE
NY Yankees
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.357 | 0.334 | 0.197 | 33.0% | 11.4% | 18.2% | 41.5% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,700 | LF | $9,300 |
| 2 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.419 | 0.421 | 0.315 | 44.0% | 16.1% | 31.6% | 35.9% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $5,600 | RF | $10,800 |
| 3 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.369 | 0.257 | 35.7% | 6.8% | 23.6% | 44.5% | C | $3,700 | C | $5,000 | C | $9,600 |
| 4 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.364 | 0.289 | 0.227 | 25.3% | 4.5% | 11.5% | 38.4% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $4,900 | SS | $9,600 |
| 5 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.304 | 0.174 | 30.3% | 3.3% | 20.2% | 47.8% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $7,200 |
| 6 | Chase Headley | SWITCH | 0.350 | 0.327 | 0.141 | 31.5% | 12.7% | 23.2% | 42.7% | 1B | $4,000 | 1B/3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,500 |
| 7 | Jacoby Ellsbury | LEFT | 0.342 | 0.338 | 0.155 | 26.0% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 45.7% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,600 |
| 8 | Matt Holliday | RIGHT | 0.311 | 0.336 | 0.203 | 29.2% | 10.3% | 25.3% | 47.6% | OF | $2,800 | 1B | $3,500 | IF/OF | $6,900 |
| 9 | Greg Bird | LEFT | 0.231 | 0.293 | 0.105 | 32.8% | 11.1% | 28.3% | 31.6% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $6,000 |
We all know the drill with Jimenez by now. He will have random starts where he looks dominant. He will have starts where he looks horrible. There’s not a lot of in between. The walks are a problem, the park is good for offense today, and the Yankees are getting locked in at the plate. This all spells trouble for Mr..Ubaldo. The Yankees have a six run implied team total, which is the second highest on the board next to Colorado.
Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Chase Headley
Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius, Matt Holliday
Stackability – GREEN
Boston at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET
| Boston | Tampa Bay | ||||||||||||||
 | Eduardo Rodriguez |  | Jake Odorizzi | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| TB -110 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.389 | 0.358 | 32.8% | 9.6% | 23.4% | 27.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.306 | 0.303 | 29.9% | 9.2% | 18.8% | 28.4% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.304 | 0.297 | 29.8% | 8.0% | 26.0% | 36.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.340 | 0.339 | 42.2% | 10.7% | 20.1% | 31.0% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Eduardo Rodriguez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $15,300 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 8 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | 4.44 | 4.71 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 31.6% | 27.6% | 22.2% | |
| 2017 | 20 | 4.07 | 4.33 | 25.5% | 8.3% | 34.6% | 30.3% | 18.9% | |
| L30 | 5 | 3.95 | 5.97 | 23.6% | 5.5% | 38.2% | 27.0% | 25.8% | |
If you are seeking upside with your pitching selection today, Rodriguez is certainly a guy you can target as an affordable option. His ERA and SIERA sit right around 4.00 for the year, and his 26% strikeout rate and 11% swinging strike rate are among the best figures on the slate, especially for the mid-priced options. He also draws a fine matchup against a Rays squad that strikes out a lot and has been abysmal against left-handed pitching this season. I’m a buyer here.
Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez brings a lot of upside to the table and is a solid choice against the Rays today, especially in tournaments or as a SP #2 on multi-pitcher sites.
| Jake Odorizzi | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $13,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 19 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 33 | 4.21 | 3.69 | 21.5% | 7.0% | 36.6% | 33.7% | 16.8% | |
| 2017 | 24 | 5.11 | 4.58 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 29.9% | 36.8% | 15.1% | |
| L30 | 5 | 6.18 | 5.40 | 17.8% | 15.0% | 28.2% | 31.9% | 13.9% | |
It has been a tough year for Odorizzi, and his overall profile is very underwhelming. Given his 5.11 SIERA, 37% hard contact rate allowed, and limited strikeout upside, he is not a fantasy option against the Red Sox.
Quick Breakdown: Odorizzi can safely be avoided in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.265 | 0.140 | 29.7% | 7.8% | 19.9% | 47.0% | SS | $3,600 | SS | $4,000 | SS | $7,800 |
| 2 | Dustin Pedroia | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.317 | 0.102 | 25.7% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 48.3% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $4,400 | 2B | $8,700 |
| 3 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.349 | 0.345 | 0.182 | 36.5% | 9.9% | 16.5% | 37.4% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $4,800 | LF | $9,300 |
| 4 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.328 | 0.179 | 35.2% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 40.2% | OF | $4,500 | OF | $5,200 | RF | $10,000 |
| 5 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.330 | 0.375 | 0.201 | 38.8% | 10.1% | 21.3% | 41.0% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,200 |
| 6 | Rafael Devers | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.296 | 0.212 | 33.7% | 8.1% | 22.0% | 51.2% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $6,600 |
| 7 | Brock Holt | LEFT | 0.223 | 0.236 | 0.045 | 21.5% | 11.8% | 23.5% | 55.4% | 3B | $2,000 | 2B/OF | $2,200 | 3B | $4,400 |
| 8 | Christian Vazquez | RIGHT | 0.317 | 0.269 | 0.098 | 27.0% | 5.4% | 19.8% | 46.6% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,800 |
| 9 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | LEFT | 0.307 | 0.317 | 0.169 | 37.1% | 8.4% | 25.0% | 42.0% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,300 | CF | $6,600 |
A stack is certainly in play given the struggles that Odorizzi has had this year, and a few of Boston’s hitters have had his number. Dustin Pedroia is 13-for-30 against him with three home runs, and that might be enough of a BvP sample to get me to buy in. Mookie Betts has warmed up of late and is also a strong individual play. Odorizzi has shown strong reverse splits this year, allowing a wOBA 40 points higher to RHBs than LHBs to go along with a massive hard contact rate, so give RHBs the edge in this spot.
Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts
Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Tampa Bay
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.286 | 0.243 | 0.106 | 24.7% | 6.3% | 27.6% | 60.8% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,100 |
| 2 | Trevor Plouffe | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.330 | 0.055 | 38.2% | 9.0% | 23.0% | 45.6% | 1B | $2,100 | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $4,800 |
| 3 | Evan Longoria | RIGHT | 0.282 | 0.305 | 0.160 | 35.4% | 12.4% | 21.2% | 47.8% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $6,400 |
| 4 | Lucas Duda | LEFT | 0.296 | 0.319 | 0.253 | 42.9% | 7.6% | 30.4% | 41.1% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $7,500 |
| 5 | Steve Souza | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.289 | 0.128 | 27.4% | 14.9% | 27.7% | 45.1% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,300 | RF | $6,600 |
| 6 | Wilson Ramos | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.284 | 0.140 | 27.0% | 6.4% | 12.8% | 64.9% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,400 |
| 7 | Adeiny Hechavarria | RIGHT | 0.286 | 0.271 | 0.175 | 35.9% | 4.4% | 17.6% | 46.0% | SS | $3,600 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,400 |
| 8 | Peter Bourjos | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.254 | 0.193 | 37.7% | 6.4% | 28.7% | 47.5% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,600 | CF | $5,100 |
| 9 | Danny Espinosa | SWITCH | 0.239 | 0.264 | 0.100 | 29.5% | 7.1% | 30.3% | 45.0% | 2B | $2,000 | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $5,700 |
I’m not really interested in any Rays bats here given how much I plan to use Rodriguez as a pitcher, but it should be noted that Rodriguez also has strong reverse splits this year, as he has allowed a .388 wOBA to LHBs compared to a .298 mark to RHBs.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Lucas Duda
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET
| Chicago White Sox | Detroit | ||||||||||||||
 | Dylan Covey |  | Matt Boyd | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| DET-108 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.368 | 0.380 | 30.5% | 7.6% | 15.1% | 52.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.349 | 0.318 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 55.2% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.503 | 0.420 | 42.5% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 43.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.373 | 0.333 | 38.8% | 9.2% | 18.3% | 35.1% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Dylan Covey | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,700 | Salary: | $9,300 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 28 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 30 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 28 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 8 | 5.57 | 8.08 | 13.1% | 10.4% | 47.6% | 36.7% | 19.5% | |
| L30 | 0 | 5.51 | 7.94 | 14.9% | 14.9% | 57.6% | 36.4% | 18.2% | |
We saw a shootout between the White Sox and TIgers yesterday with two bad pitchers on the mound, and we might see a repeat performance today. Covey has a 7.90 ERA, a 5.81 SIERA, a 12.3% strikeout rate, and an 11.1% walk rate in 15 appearances (nine starts) this season. He was a Rule 5 pick that has to stay on the roster all year, and it has been rough sledding to say the least. Pass.
Quick Breakdown: Covey has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year, and he is not a DFS option.
| Matt Boyd | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $5,400 | Salary: | $10,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 26 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 27 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | 4.38 | 4.53 | 19.9% | 7.0% | 38.1% | 30.0% | 19.2% | |
| 2017 | 21 | 5.04 | 5.93 | 17.7% | 9.2% | 38.4% | 36.4% | 20.3% | |
| L30 | 5 | 4.89 | 6.84 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 36.6% | 36.5% | 20.0% | |
Matt Boyd has also struggled mightily this year, with an ERA well over 5.00 and a SIERA of 4.99. He has allowed tons of hard contact and has a below average strikeout rate of his own. Even against the White Sox, he is not a fantasy option. This game features two relatively weak offenses yet has a Vegas total of 11 runs. That tells you all you need to know about the two pitchers.
Quick Breakdown: Boyd can safely be avoided in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Anderson | RIGHT | 0.345 | 0.305 | 0.171 | 30.2% | 1.4% | 24.3% | 50.0% | SS | $3,600 | SS | $3,800 | SS | $7,600 |
| 2 | Yoan Moncada | SWITCH | 0.233 | 0.202 | 0.114 | 26.9% | 8.2% | 36.7% | 50.0% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $4,600 | 2B | $9,000 |
| 3 | Jose Abreu | RIGHT | 0.459 | 0.419 | 0.292 | 40.8% | 7.7% | 18.9% | 45.6% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,500 | 1B | $8,800 |
| 4 | Avisail Garcia | RIGHT | 0.438 | 0.332 | 0.167 | 40.9% | 4.2% | 18.3% | 52.7% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,800 | RF | $9,300 |
| 5 | Matt Davidson | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.319 | 0.222 | 30.3% | 5.6% | 31.5% | 28.8% | 3B | $2,300 | 1B/3B | $3,300 | 3B | $6,600 |
| 6 | Tyler Saladino | RIGHT | 0.274 | 0.293 | 0.053 | 25.4% | 9.3% | 15.1% | 45.9% | 3B | $2,300 | 2B/3B | $2,200 | 2B | $4,300 |
| 7 | Kevan Smith | RIGHT | 0.254 | 0.278 | 0.120 | 22.1% | 1.0% | 13.6% | 61.2% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,600 | C | $5,200 |
| 8 | Alen Hanson | SWITCH | 0.301 | 0.239 | 0.172 | 26.1% | 6.5% | 19.4% | 69.6% | 2B | $2,100 | 2B/OF | $3,300 | 2B | $6,600 |
| 9 | Adam Engel | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.243 | 0.147 | 21.7% | 7.9% | 28.9% | 42.2% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,100 | CF | $6,000 |
For all his struggles this year, Boyd has actually been decent against LHBs. Lefties have not hit a single home run against him (righties have hit 16 home runs). The good news is that you might see nine right-handed bats in that lineup for the White Sox today, and they have a team total comfortably over five runs. They have been much better as a team against LHP this year, and they might get overlooked as a stack because of their relatively weak lineup. They have actually been swinging the bats very well of late, and it would not be a surprise for them to keep it going against Boyd.
Elite Plays – Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia, Yoan Moncada
Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Matt Davidson
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Detroit
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Kinsler | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.308 | 0.136 | 34.9% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 35.8% | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 2 | Alex Presley | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.300 | 0.090 | 31.5% | 6.0% | 17.9% | 47.2% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,800 |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.380 | 0.150 | 44.1% | 9.3% | 20.3% | 40.6% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $6,000 |
| 4 | Nick Castellanos | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.347 | 0.169 | 44.3% | 6.5% | 23.9% | 37.1% | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,200 |
| 5 | Jeimer Candelario | SWITCH | 0.296 | 0.270 | 0.125 | 28.6% | 9.3% | 24.1% | 45.7% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $6,300 |
| 6 | James McCann | RIGHT | 0.289 | 0.308 | 0.118 | 40.7% | 6.5% | 27.4% | 36.8% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,600 | C | $5,100 |
| 7 | Tyler Collins | LEFT | 0.286 | 0.292 | 0.140 | 39.0% | 11.7% | 32.1% | 32.9% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,000 | CF | $6,000 |
| 8 | Mikie Mahtook | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.303 | 0.150 | 34.8% | 6.6% | 22.4% | 49.0% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,900 | CF | $7,800 |
| 9 | Jose Iglesias | RIGHT | 0.300 | 0.267 | 0.128 | 29.4% | 4.3% | 14.7% | 52.4% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $6,600 |
Dylan Covey has an overall profile that makes him arguably the worst starting pitcher in all of baseball. Any and all Detroit hitters are in play today. It says a lot when Matt Boyd is a favorite on the mound. Right-handed bats have logged a .467 wOBA and 41% hard contact rate against Covey this year.
Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos
Secondary Plays – James McCann, Jeimer Candelario
Stackability – GREEN
Kansas City at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET
| Kansas City | Cleveland | ||||||||||||||
 | Danny Duffy |  | Corey Kluber | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| CLE-240 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.202 | 0.218 | 19.4% | 5.0% | 23.8% | 52.1% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.259 | 0.264 | 32.1% | 6.3% | 31.9% | 44.8% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.334 | 0.322 | 32.5% | 7.0% | 20.8% | 35.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.228 | 0.239 | 28.1% | 4.0% | 37.8% | 44.6% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Danny Duffy | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $12,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 10 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 20 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 26 | 3.53 | 3.51 | 25.7% | 5.8% | 36.4% | 36.6% | 17.8% | |
| 2017 | 21 | 4.32 | 3.78 | 21.4% | 6.6% | 38.5% | 30.1% | 17.4% | |
| L30 | 2 | 3.58 | 4.91 | 32.6% | 10.9% | 42.3% | 11.5% | 26.9% | |
Duffy will return from the disabled list to start today, but he has done nothing except throw a three inning simulated game in the bullpen to prepare for his return (since the minor league seasons are done). He will not go deep into this game and is not a DFS option against an Indians team that has won 23 of its last 24 games. I am a fan and I hope he finishes the season strong, but we can’t count on him today.
Quick Breakdown: Duffy will be on a pitch count and can safely be avoided in all formats.
| Corey Kluber | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $12,000 | Salary: | $13,400 | Salary: | $26,100 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 1 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 32 | 3.50 | 3.14 | 26.4% | 6.6% | 44.5% | 27.6% | 19.9% | |
| 2017 | 25 | 2.65 | 2.56 | 35.0% | 5.1% | 44.7% | 30.1% | 23.6% | |
| L30 | 6 | 2.84 | 2.30 | 31.9% | 3.7% | 38.2% | 30.1% | 26.2% | |
The Klubot returns. He is coming off another ho-hum complete game shutout, and here are his numbers by month since his return from the DL on June 1st:
June: 4-0 record, 1.26 ERA, 64 K, 7 BB
July: 1-1 record, 2.62 ERA, 56 K, 7 BB
August: 5-1 record, 1.96 ERA, 54 K, 6 BB
September: 3-0 record, 1.13 ERA, 28 K, 1 BB
In 20 starts since his return, he has racked up 202 strikeouts compared to just 21 walks to go along with a 13-2 record. That is incredible. Yes, the “win” stat is irrelevant in baseball, but it still gets us fantasy points. The numbers are off the charts. Play the man.
Quick Breakdown: As is usually the case when he pitches, Kluber is the top pitching option on today’s slate.
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Whit Merrifield | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.305 | 0.163 | 28.0% | 3.8% | 13.8% | 37.2% | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,800 |
| 2 | Lorenzo Cain | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.333 | 0.128 | 29.8% | 7.8% | 16.3% | 45.2% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,300 | CF | $6,400 |
| 3 | Eric Hosmer | LEFT | 0.409 | 0.390 | 0.209 | 33.6% | 11.6% | 16.2% | 49.7% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,900 |
| 4 | Melky Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.330 | 0.338 | 0.133 | 28.5% | 5.8% | 11.4% | 51.1% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,100 | LF | $6,000 |
| 5 | Salvador Perez | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.322 | 0.220 | 37.0% | 2.8% | 19.9% | 32.9% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
| 6 | Mike Moustakas | LEFT | 0.367 | 0.364 | 0.285 | 34.4% | 6.6% | 15.4% | 29.8% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $6,400 |
| 7 | Brandon Moss | LEFT | 0.291 | 0.332 | 0.232 | 37.2% | 9.7% | 31.3% | 31.1% | OF | $2,200 | 1B/OF | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,600 |
| 8 | Alcides Escobar | RIGHT | 0.251 | 0.257 | 0.085 | 25.6% | 1.6% | 16.5% | 43.2% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,300 |
| 9 | Alex Gordon | LEFT | 0.251 | 0.280 | 0.108 | 32.6% | 7.2% | 24.9% | 40.0% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,800 | LF | $5,400 |
Don’t play any hitters against Kluber.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Cleveland
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.380 | 0.359 | 0.222 | 41.4% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 39.4% | SS | $4,700 | SS | $5,300 | SS | $10,200 |
| 2 | Austin Jackson | RIGHT | 0.420 | 0.365 | 0.239 | 30.6% | 12.1% | 19.4% | 47.1% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,800 |
| 3 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.377 | 0.350 | 0.235 | 34.3% | 6.6% | 11.8% | 41.5% | 2B | $4,300 | 2B/3B | $5,500 | IF/OF | $10,800 |
| 4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.364 | 0.392 | 0.203 | 38.3% | 19.3% | 21.8% | 45.2% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $5,100 | 1B | $9,900 |
| 5 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.344 | 0.338 | 0.186 | 31.4% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 51.4% | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $5,000 | 1B | $9,600 |
| 6 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.301 | 0.295 | 0.207 | 35.6% | 7.0% | 26.1% | 31.1% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,900 | RF | $9,600 |
| 7 | Yandy Diaz | RIGHT | 0.394 | 0.422 | 0.081 | 41.4% | 26.0% | 16.0% | 55.2% | 3B | $2,400 | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $6,000 |
| 8 | Austin Jackson | RIGHT | 0.420 | 0.365 | 0.239 | 30.6% | 12.1% | 19.4% | 47.1% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,800 |
| 9 | Yan Gomes | RIGHT | 0.364 | 0.327 | 0.255 | 40.3% | 10.6% | 23.9% | 45.1% | C | $2,900 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
I generally respect Duffy enough to avoid hitters against him, but this is a bit of a wild card spot with Duffy unlikely to pitch deep into the game. I would lean towards some RHBs if I choose to play anyone, but I still prefer other offenses on today’s slate. There are plenty of spots to go, and you don’t need to force any Cleveland hitters in there.
Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion
Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez, Austin Jackson
Stackability – YELLOW
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | ||||||||||||||
 | Gerrit Cole |  | Robert Stephenson | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| CIN-143 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.334 | 0.334 | 38.9% | 5.6% | 22.1% | 43.7% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.364 | 0.358 | 44.6% | 17.2% | 21.3% | 37.0% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.288 | 0.289 | 25.2% | 6.8% | 22.4% | 49.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.357 | 0.341 | 33.6% | 12.5% | 24.4% | 39.0% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Gerrit Cole | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,100 | Salary: | $9,100 | Salary: | $17,700 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 4 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | 4.24 | 3.88 | 19.4% | 7.1% | 45.6% | 30.1% | 21.3% | |
| 2017 | 29 | 4.03 | 3.93 | 22.3% | 6.2% | 46.5% | 31.8% | 23.9% | |
| L30 | 5 | 3.76 | 3.78 | 26.5% | 8.1% | 50.0% | 37.5% | 21.6% | |
Cole has been an improved pitcher in the second half of the season, and while I am generally not a fan of targeting him in DFS, that improvement is at least worth a head nod. He has bumped his strikeout rate up to 22.8% this year, which is above league average. His SIERA is now also under 4.00 for the year. His last five starts have gone for the following runs allowed: five, zero, five, zero, and five. One of each came against this same Reds team. The pattern would indicate that a zero run start is coming today! All in!
All kidding aside, Cole has some upside, but the inconsistency remains. He seems a bit over-priced for my tastes, but I almost never play him.
Quick Breakdown: Cole is a reasonable option, but the price tag is simply too expensive for me.
| Robert Stephenson | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | $13,500 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 17 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 8 | 5.12 | 6.08 | 18.2% | 11.2% | 34.5% | 37.9% | 17.2% | |
| 2017 | 7 | 4.96 | 5.15 | 23.2% | 14.4% | 38.2% | 38.0% | 12.5% | |
| L30 | 4 | 4.50 | 2.19 | 28.7% | 14.8% | 35.1% | 37.3% | 10.2% | |
There is some intriguing potential with Stephenson, and his primary appeal lies in the fact that there is some strikeout upside in that right arm. However, today he draws a matchup with a low strikeout Pirates offense, which limits his biggest weapon. With a SIERA over 5.00 and a massive 14.6% walk rate, the risk outweighs the reward today.
Quick Breakdown: Stephenson can safely be avoided in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Starling Marte | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.326 | 0.112 | 25.5% | 5.8% | 17.3% | 48.6% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,900 |
| 2 | Adam Frazier | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.335 | 0.133 | 30.4% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 46.8% | OF | $3,400 | 2B/OF | $3,700 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
| 3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.335 | 0.144 | 32.5% | 10.4% | 18.3% | 43.7% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
| 4 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.356 | 0.337 | 0.226 | 33.7% | 11.3% | 18.4% | 51.5% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,500 | IF/OF | $6,900 |
| 5 | David Freese | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.338 | 0.110 | 31.7% | 11.1% | 23.8% | 56.1% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $6,400 |
| 6 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.314 | 0.315 | 0.173 | 26.2% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 40.4% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,200 | RF | $6,300 |
| 7 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.304 | 0.144 | 27.2% | 9.4% | 15.5% | 49.1% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $3,600 | SS | $7,200 |
| 8 | Chris Stewart | RIGHT | 0.229 | 0.256 | 0.032 | 30.0% | 4.9% | 15.7% | 35.1% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,000 | C | $4,000 |
| 9 | Gerrit Cole | RIGHT | 0.176 | 0.136 | 0.077 | 14.7% | 2.0% | 28.6% | 65.2% | P | $9,100 | P | $9,100 | P | $17,700 |
The high walk rate for Robert Stephenson does tend to get him in trouble at times, so I don’t hate the idea of a sneaky Pittsburgh stack in this spot. It’s probably not something I will do, but there is upside at low ownership. Stephenson has allowed a wOBA of .360 or greater to hitters from both sides of the plate this year.
Elite Plays – Starling Marte, Josh Bell
Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Andrew McCutchen
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Cincinnati
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesse Winker | LEFT | 0.418 | 0.360 | 0.226 | 36.7% | 16.2% | 17.6% | 53.1% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,800 |
| 2 | Zack Cozart | RIGHT | 0.376 | 0.320 | 0.224 | 29.3% | 12.7% | 16.1% | 38.6% | SS | $3,700 | SS | $4,600 | SS | $8,800 |
| 3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.426 | 0.431 | 0.256 | 38.4% | 19.0% | 10.4% | 38.7% | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $5,200 | 1B | $10,200 |
| 4 | Scooter Gennett | LEFT | 0.393 | 0.336 | 0.258 | 37.5% | 6.6% | 20.8% | 39.8% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 5 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.362 | 0.355 | 0.202 | 31.4% | 13.2% | 21.4% | 38.9% | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $8,100 |
| 6 | Scott Schebler | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.358 | 0.258 | 40.1% | 10.5% | 24.2% | 43.7% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,100 | RF | $8,100 |
| 7 | Adam Duvall | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.284 | 0.231 | 33.0% | 5.0% | 27.3% | 31.3% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,700 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
| 8 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.324 | 0.336 | 0.129 | 34.8% | 10.3% | 16.2% | 43.7% | C | $3,000 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,300 |
| 9 | Robert Stephenson | RIGHT | 0.073 | 0.104 | 0.000 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 40.0% | P | $7,000 | P | $6,800 | P | $13,500 |
I respect Cole’s skill set enough to where I will not target hitters against him. He has largely held most of these guys in check from a BvP perspective, as Joey Votto is just 5-for-23 in his career against Cole. Scooter Gennett is the only one with respectable BvP, and his even comes with hollow power/RBI numbers. There’s not much to love here.