MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 23rd

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-09-23 14:42:31

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Baltimore								NY Yankees
			Alex Cobb							J.A. Happ
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-300							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.330	0.337	31.9%	1.15	17.5%	46.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.217	0.279	29.1%	0.53	25.8%	53.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.359	0.368	32.6%	1.70	13.4%	52.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.324	32.6%	1.63	26.2%	39.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:			$5,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			15 of 30	Salary Rank:			28 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	29	4.48	3.66	17.3%	5.9%	47.8%	36.9%	14.9%	91.7	6.7%
	2018	27	4.61	4.90	15.4%	6.5%	49.5%	32.2%	20.9%	92.0	7.4%
	L14	2	5.66	1.13	12.5%	12.5%	52.2%	20.8%	12.5%	92.2	4.7%

Alex Cobb has pitched much better during the second half of the season. His dreadful start has caused his season-long stats to look somewhat bloated. The veteran has a 4.90 ERA along with a 4.62 SIERA, while his strikeout rate is still sitting at just 15.4%. Cobb is also dealing with a blister on a finger on his pitching hand, so keep that in mind. Today he draws a difficult matchup on the road against a powerful Yankee lineup. He doesn’t carry a ton of upside to begin with, so I think Cobb makes for an easy fade despite the cheap price tag.

Quick Breakdown: Cobb is an easy fade.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
J.A. Happ
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,800	Salary:			$10,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			3 of 30	Salary Rank:			3 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	4.11	3.53	22.7%	7.4%	46.9%	26.7%	20.3%	91.8	9.5%
	2018	28	3.60	3.75	26.1%	6.6%	42.0%	31.9%	20.6%	91.9	10.3%
	L14	2	4.11	0.75	18.6%	2.3%	36.4%	48.5%	12.1%	92.1	4.7%

J.A. Happ has been great this season, particularly since coming to New York. Save for one start against the Tigers, he’s been dominant. The southpaw has an excellent 26% K-rate on the season, and his 3.65 SIERA validates his 4.62 ERA. Happ has been taken deep 25 times already, but the home run risk is mitigated to a degree thanks to today’s matchup against the punchless Orioles. Yankee Stadium isn’t a great place to pitch, but Happ is fairly priced and the matchup speaks for itself.

Quick Breakdown: Happ is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Happ is a lefty with a wide split that will give up his fair share of dingers. The Orioles don’t have much, but they do still have a couple of capable right-handed hitters. Trey Mancini and Adam Jones both look like decent options here, though neither registers as a building block type of play on this slate. I’d rather play Happ than load up on O’s against him.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cedric Mullins	LEFT	0.228	0.000	14.3%	16.1%	38.7%	50.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.276	0.217	29.8%	6.8%	29.7%	29.8%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.331	0.181	42.4%	5.0%	27.7%	51.6%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.334	0.114	32.1%	2.6%	8.4%	40.0%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.285	0.123	22.8%	7.1%	24.3%	66.7%	OF	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.305	0.169	30.2%	9.2%	26.5%	45.2%	SS	$2,600	3B/SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
7	Renato Nunez	RIGHT	0.271	0.092	25.0%	6.9%	25.0%	39.6%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	John Andreoli	RIGHT	0.152	0.000	30.8%	0.0%	40.9%	7.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Austin Wynns	RIGHT	0.262	0.000	16.0%	0.0%	30.6%	48.0%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.272	0.100	27.0%	6.0%	28.0%	42.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Trey Mancini

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees clinched one of the AL Wild Card spots yesterday, but they still have to battle with the A’s to see which team will host the play-in game. So, while some regulars may sit in this spot, I don’t expect Aaron Boone to fully punt and start a bunch of bench guys. The matchup today against Alex Cobb is a good one, as he’s been one of the more hittable pitchers in baseball this season. He has shown some reverse splits over the last couple of years, but I wouldn’t be afraid to roster hitters of either handedness here. Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez once again grade out as elite options here. Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres, too, depending on where in the lineup they wind up hitting. The Yankees are one of the top stacks on the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.363	0.156	44.4%	14.4%	21.9%	40.6%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.396	0.261	48.0%	12.4%	31.1%	45.8%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.347	0.258	37.9%	9.2%	11.8%	36.4%	SS	$3,900	SS	$5,400	N/A	N/A
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.326	0.206	38.1%	9.0%	31.9%	45.8%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
5	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.379	0.183	37.1%	17.0%	19.3%	42.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
6	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.356	0.223	37.2%	3.5%	16.5%	47.0%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
7	Luke Voit	RIGHT	0.443	0.317	42.9%	14.9%	27.0%	41.9%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
8	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.341	0.213	36.3%	10.4%	25.1%	46.3%	C	$3,200	C	$4,300	N/A	N/A
9	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.354	0.173	35.4%	8.5%	23.8%	34.1%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.367	0.221	39.7%	11.0%	23.2%	42.3%

Elite Plays – Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Toronto
			Blake Snell							Ryan Borucki
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -165							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.196	0.260	35.9%	0.50	33.1%	46.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.298	0.317	27.9%	0.50	15.6%	59.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.266	0.290	36.0%	0.99	30.0%	43.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.326	0.351	33.9%	0.62	14.8%	41.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Blake Snell
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,700	Salary:			$12,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			1 of 30	Salary Rank:			1 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	24	4.72	4.04	21.8%	10.8%	43.9%	32.9%	18.8%	94.3	10.8%
	2018	28	3.35	2.03	30.7%	8.8%	44.2%	35.9%	19.0%	95.7	14.6%
	L14	2	1.91	2.19	40.9%	4.6%	54.2%	37.5%	20.8%	96.6	16.4%

Blake Snell has an elite 30.6% strikeout rate so far this season alongside an absurd 1.97 ERA. His 3.37 SIERA is quite a bit higher, but both numbers are impressive nonetheless. His walk rate nearing 9% is still a little too high, but it’s hard to argue with the results he’s gotten. Today Snell gets a considerable park downgrade and he’s going up against a decent Toronto offense. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but with good reason. He’s obviously one of the top options on the board, it’s just a question of whether it’s necessary to fork over the cash it takes to get him.

Quick Breakdown: Snell is an elite play on the main slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Ryan Borucki
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,700	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			21 of 30	Salary Rank:			18 of 30	Salary Rank:

	2018	14	4.90	4.26	15.0%	7.5%	45.6%	32.4%	15.2%	91.7	7.4%
	L14	2	4.18	2.92	20.8%	8.3%	54.8%	24.2%	27.3%	91.5	11.0%

Ryan Borucki has been in great form of late, as he’s allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 3 straight starts, as well as 4 of his last 5. His 3.86 ERA looks nice, but his SIERA is nearly a full run higher. He’s one of those guys that seems to be pitching over his head right now. The left-hander has a mediocre 15.8% strikeout rate this season, but he’s kept the ball on the ground pretty well while limiting hard hits. The Rays offense on the other side doesn’t have many big names, but they’re a decent lineup overall and they get a huge park boost today going into Toronto. I’d rather play some Tampa hitters than risk it with Borucki.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Borucki in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Borucki has done a fine job of holding his fellow lefties down, but righties have a .307 wOBA against him and they’ve accounted for 4 of the 5 homers he’s served up on the year. The Rays are fairly cheap on the whole, so they make lots of things work on this slate. Tommy Pham is the most expensive option, but he’s also the best one and he’s worth prioritizing. C.J. Cron, Carlos Gomez and Matt Duffy are all cheap and will hold the platoon advantage here. Once again, I think Mallex Smith is viable even in a lefty-lefty matchup, especially if he’s hitting leadoff. The Rays make for an intriguing stack today due in large part to their overall value.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.296	0.079	24.6%	7.0%	20.9%	57.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.455	0.141	52.7%	15.0%	20.8%	50.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.322	0.057	31.6%	10.8%	18.0%	58.2%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.359	0.235	42.9%	6.8%	28.6%	40.7%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.266	0.119	34.6%	7.9%	23.7%	42.3%	3B	$3,000	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.317	0.131	29.1%	4.1%	22.8%	28.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.294	0.162	38.0%	13.8%	28.7%	49.0%	1B	$2,900	1B/OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
8	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.266	0.106	41.0%	6.9%	38.9%	51.3%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
9	Jesus Sucre	RIGHT	0.240	0.023	35.9%	6.3%	12.5%	42.1%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.313	0.117	36.7%	8.7%	23.9%	46.6%

Elite Plays – C.J. Cron, Matt Duffy, Carlos Gomez, Tommy Pham

Secondary Plays – Mallex Smith

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Toronto

Blake Snell has been electrifying this season, so he’s not someone I’m wanting to pick on. He’s still a lefty with a wide platoon split, so I suppose you can take a shot on one of the cheaper Toronto bats if you’re scrounging around trying to save some cash. Lourdes Gurriel, Kendrys Morales or Yangervis Solarte would fit the bill. No stack necessary, however.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lourdes Gurriel	RIGHT	0.394	0.145	27.5%	4.5%	16.7%	47.1%	SS	$3,200	2B/SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.332	0.203	29.6%	6.1%	11.5%	37.8%	3B	$2,500	2B/3B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
3	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.355	0.129	34.3%	6.8%	20.4%	47.6%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
4	Rowdy Tellez	LEFT	0.202	0.000	0.0%	16.7%	66.7%	0.0%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
5	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.351	0.198	34.9%	6.1%	28.0%	38.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.292	0.162	34.8%	2.8%	14.0%	36.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.346	0.257	33.7%	6.5%	31.8%	38.9%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Danny Jansen	RIGHT	0.418	0.071	9.1%	6.3%	18.8%	9.1%	C	$2,400	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Richard Urena	SWITCH	0.282	0.333	12.5%	0.0%	20.0%	42.9%	SS	$2,100	2B/SS	$2,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.330	0.166	24.0%	6.2%	25.3%	33.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Lourdes Gurriel, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – RED

Cincinnati at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Miami
			Michael Lorenzen							Trevor Richards
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CIN-110							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.351	0.364	42.4%	0.98	20.0%	44.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.310	0.319	30.1%	0.47	20.7%	30.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.271	0.302	30.6%	0.45	14.7%	49.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.368	0.372	47.3%	1.79	23.0%	39.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Michael Lorenzen
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$6,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			29 of 30	Salary Rank:			22 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	0	3.84	4.45	22.2%	9.4%	54.6%	26.8%	22.6%	96.4	10.5%
	2018	0	4.49	3.21	17.1%	10.1%	47.5%	35.4%	18.5%	95.2	7.0%
	L14	0	4.00	4.15	17.1%	5.7%	50.0%	30.8%	11.5%	95.7	7.9%

Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani have dominated in this matchup over the last couple of days, so now it’s Michael Lorenzen turn. The problem here is that he’s likely not fully stretched out. The right-hander has been pitching out of the bullpen just about all season long, with his lone start having come 5 days ago. He pitched well that day against the Brewers, but he only lasted 4 innings and 52 pitches. Lorenzen hasn’t shown a ton of strikeout ability this season, so he’s unlikely to rack up enough Ks to make him worth your while if he’s going to be topping out between 50 and 70 pitches. Streaming starters against the Marlins in Miami is fun, but I can’t recommend Lorenzen here.

Quick Breakdown: Lorenzen is an easy fade due to his likely low pitch count.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Trevor Richards
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,100	Salary:			$5,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			26 of 30	Salary Rank:			25 of 30	Salary Rank:

	2018	22	4.50	4.85	22.6%	10.6%	34.9%	40.1%	13.8%	90.8	10.0%
	L14	2	6.54	14.21	10.8%	13.5%	30.8%	29.6%	7.4%	90.2	9.0%

Trevor Richards has quietly given the Marlins some decent work this season. The right-hander’s 4.95 ERA and 3-9 record don’t look great, but his 22.8% strikeout rate is serviceable and his 4.44 SIERA is more average than awful. The 40.2% hard-hit rate is concerning, but Richards is a fly ball pitcher, and fly balls have a way of turning into outs at Marlins Park. The Reds offense on the other side of this game isn’t all that imposing, and Richards comes with one of the cheapest price tags on the slate. I think he’s very much in play if you want to punt with one of your pitchers, but I’m not sure it’s fully necessary on this slate. There aren’t a ton of great offenses out there with expensive bats we want to cram in. Richards is viable, though, especially in GPPs.

Quick Breakdown: Richards is a workable punt on this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

I have at least faint interest in Trevor Richards here, and Marlins Park presents a considerable park downgrade for the Reds’ hitters. Richards has also shown some pretty dramatic reverse splits this season, which should help him against Cincy considering most of their best hitters are left-handed. Taking a stab at Eugenio Suarez isn’t the worst idea, but third base is also a pretty deep position. Joey Votto is also fairly cheap, but my overall interest in the Reds offense is lacking here today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.357	0.214	40.2%	9.8%	25.4%	50.6%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.301	0.123	30.2%	5.1%	12.1%	34.6%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,500	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.447	0.153	40.4%	19.4%	14.1%	34.8%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.338	0.191	39.3%	6.8%	19.1%	40.0%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.369	0.231	46.3%	9.0%	24.5%	38.6%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Mason Williams	LEFT	0.290	0.131	47.0%	4.4%	22.2%	49.2%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.329	0.126	39.0%	10.3%	14.8%	41.5%	C	$2,200	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Michael Lorenzen	RIGHT	0.342	0.556	38.5%	0.0%	31.6%	36.4%	P	$5,500	P	$6,400	N/A	N/A
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.246	0.076	17.6%	8.0%	22.3%	40.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.335	0.200	37.6%	8.1%	20.7%	40.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Jose Peraza, Billy Hamilton

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Miami

Michael Lorenzen has conceded a .346 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season. The problem once again is that the Marlins have very few hitters that stand out as viable options. Derek Dietrich is serviceable, while J.T. Riddle could be in play if he draws a decent lineup spot. Lewis Brinson isn’t a lefty, but he’s so cheap that I think you can try him as a punt in the outfield if you need the savings. J.T. Realmuto is fine, but I have a hard time spending up at catcher, especially in this ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.318	0.171	32.2%	7.6%	18.6%	46.5%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.322	0.118	35.1%	6.4%	19.7%	49.6%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.374	0.226	38.9%	7.3%	18.4%	41.4%	C	$3,200	C	$4,600	N/A	N/A
4	Peter O’Brien	RIGHT	0.361	0.294	40.0%	5.3%	42.1%	30.0%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.326	0.149	36.9%	6.5%	23.8%	39.4%	1B	$2,800	1B/OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.341	0.116	37.0%	7.8%	18.5%	53.6%	3B	$2,400	3B/OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
7	Rafael Ortega	LEFT	0.302	0.040	32.9%	6.5%	14.0%	45.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Magneuris Sierra	LEFT	0.167	0.010	19.7%	1.9%	24.3%	50.8%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
9	Trevor Richards	RIGHT	0.040	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	47.8%	100.0%	P	$6,100	P	$5,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.283	0.125	30.3%	5.5%	25.2%	50.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Lewis Brinson, Derek Dietrich, J.T. Realmuto, J.T. Riddle

Stackability – RED

Kansas City at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Kansas City								Detroit
			Brad Keller							Daniel Norris
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET-105							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.327	0.344	30.1%	0.65	16.6%	51.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.342	0.326	30.0%	1.42	24.1%	42.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.262	0.288	32.7%	0.37	16.4%	56.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.334	0.387	44.4%	1.96	27.2%	22.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Brad Keller
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,900	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			10 of 30	Salary Rank:			14 of 30	Salary Rank:

	2018	18	4.50	3.04	16.5%	8.7%	54.4%	31.6%	18.6%	94.0	8.7%
	L14	2	3.56	1.29	18.3%	5.0%	60.0%	17.4%	23.9%	94.2	11.1%

Brad Keller doesn’t strike anybody out. Instead, he relies on generating soft-hit ground balls. His soft contact rate nearing 20% is decent, while his ground ball rate north of 54% is excellent. Keller gets a negative park shift going into Detroit, but we know the Tigers offense on the other side isn’t daunting in the least. Keller has gotten solid results this season, but I have a hard time stomaching this kind of price tag for a guy whose strikeout rate is under 17%. I’d be fine with him if he were about $2,000 cheaper, but at this price point I think you can feel good about pulling the fade.

Quick Breakdown: Keller’s lack of strikeout upside has me off of him at this price point.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Daniel Norris
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,200	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			24 of 30	Salary Rank:			24 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	18	4.94	5.31	18.7%	9.6%	38.8%	41.7%	16.3%	93.2	9.2%
	2018	5	3.87	6.14	26.5%	9.1%	26.8%	41.0%	18.1%	90.0	11.2%
	L14	2	4.56	7.45	22.7%	4.6%	9.7%	38.7%	25.8%	90.9	9.5%

Of the two pitchers in this game I think Daniel Norris carries more appeal. The lefty has missed most of the season due to injury, but he does boast a 25.6% K-rate in his limited duty. His 3.99 SIERA is also a whole lot more favorable than his hefty 5.71 ERA to this point. His walks (9.6%) and hard contact (41.4%) are red flags, but Norris does get the benefit of facing the Royals this afternoon. KC is one of the weaker offenses in the league and they’ve added more strikeout-prone hitters to the lineup as the season has progressed. Norris is also still priced at a huge discount given his skill set, so he’s right there with Trevor Richards and Erick Fedde as viable punt options here.

Quick Breakdown: Norris looks like a great way to save some cash with your SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Norris has allowed a .346 wOBA in his career to lefties compared to a .332 mark against righties. The Royals do get a park upgrade today, and it’s not like Norris is immune to a rough outing. I’m not jumping all over myself to roster some KC bats in this spot, but Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez are solid options at their respective positions. Perez is an affordable catcher with pop while Merrifield has been bringing tons of stolen base upside to the table. Otherwise, I’m fine ignoring the KC side of this game.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.384	0.176	39.4%	7.1%	15.3%	30.5%	2B	$3,600	2B/OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
2	Adalberto Mondesi	RIGHT	0.362	0.197	48.2%	2.7%	20.3%	41.8%	SS	$3,600	2B/SS	$4,900	N/A	N/A
3	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.296	0.031	35.1%	10.1%	22.8%	48.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
4	Ryan O’Hearn	LEFT	0.193	0.094	18.8%	11.1%	44.4%	62.5%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Rosell Herrera	SWITCH	0.265	0.049	40.9%	6.6%	19.8%	55.4%	OF	$2,300	2B/OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
6	Brian Goodwin	LEFT	0.260	0.000	25.0%	12.5%	41.7%	14.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.297	0.106	28.4%	5.2%	17.0%	46.0%	3B	$2,200	3B/SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Brett Phillips	LEFT	0.206	0.029	20.0%	7.7%	38.5%	65.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Cam Gallagher	RIGHT	0.361	0.077	33.3%	13.3%	26.7%	11.1%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.292	0.084	32.1%	8.5%	27.4%	41.7%

Elite Plays – Whit Merrifield

Secondary Plays – Salvador Perez

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

Brad Keller and his ground ball ways can make him a frustrating pitcher to try and stack against. This is also the Tigers’ offense we’re talking about, so there isn’t much that jumps off the page here to begin with. You can always make a case for Nick Castellanos, while Niko Goodrum is cheap enough to warrant consideration as a lefty against Keller. Victor Martinez is also incredibly cheap, but there’s a reason for that. As is the case with the Royals, I’m not crazy about the Tigers in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.289	0.170	33.7%	11.6%	26.4%	38.4%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Christin Stewart	LEFT	0.237	0.045	31.3%	8.3%	25.0%	43.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.382	0.191	47.7%	7.0%	23.8%	34.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.314	0.229	39.0%	8.4%	30.7%	38.7%	2B	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.291	0.179	24.7%	7.6%	28.7%	43.8%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Jim Adduci	LEFT	0.293	0.159	35.6%	3.6%	22.1%	45.1%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Grayson Greiner	RIGHT	0.328	0.075	34.1%	11.7%	31.2%	43.2%	C	$2,000	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Dawel Lugo	RIGHT	0.269	0.083	34.2%	5.9%	13.7%	70.7%	2B	$2,000	2B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.295	0.175	32.5%	4.1%	32.2%	41.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.300	0.145	34.8%	7.6%	26.0%	44.3%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Niko Goodrum, Victor Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Pittsburgh
			Wade Miley							Nick Kingham
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIL-109							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.284	0.381	44.4%	0.00	12.2%	42.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.352	0.349	34.6%	2.16	15.8%	40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.274	0.281	35.4%	0.52	17.1%	56.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.301	0.321	35.2%	1.67	25.5%	40.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Wade Miley
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:			$6,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			13 of 30	Salary Rank:			21 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	5.07	5.61	19.5%	12.8%	50.3%	32.5%	16.6%	91.0	8.1%
	2018	13	4.68	2.23	15.8%	8.8%	52.7%	37.7%	20.3%	90.9	9.5%
	L14	2	3.67	2.45	13.6%	6.8%	71.9%	20.6%	23.5%	90.3	11.3%

Wade Miley has a 2.08 ERA this season, but there is essentially nothing about his underlying numbers to suggest that this is going to last forever. The lefty has a 4.59 SIERA. It’s pretty rare to see a SIERA about 2 1/2 runs higher than an ERA, but here we are. Miley additionally has a low strikeout rate of 15.4% and he’s allowed hard hits at a 38.7% clip on the year. His ground ball numbers are pretty decent, though, and he has allowed just 3 homers in 14 starts. While he gets a nice positive park shift going into PNC, I think there are enough affordable pitchers in better spots to where you don’t need to seriously give Miley consideration.

Quick Breakdown: Miley and his flukey ERA makes for an easy fade.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Nick Kingham
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			20 of 30	Salary Rank:			15 of 30	Salary Rank:

	2018	13	4.21	4.69	20.9%	6.8%	40.0%	34.9%	17.4%	92.3	11.0%
	L14	0	6.44	4.50	20.0%	20.0%	16.7%	33.3%	16.7%	91.3	7.7%

This will be the first start for Nick Kingham since September 2 after pitching out of the bullpen in his most recent outing. The rookie carries a 20.9% strikeout rate into his start today along with a decent 4.21 SIERA. The right-hander has already allowed 15 homers in 16 games, and the Milwaukee offense on the other side of this matchup is a good one. Kingham is also a smidge too expensive for my liking. I might consider him on another slate, but there are plenty of better options in my eyes today.

Quick Breakdown: I’ll pass on Kingham against the Brew Crew.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Kingham has yielded a .352 wOBA with 8 home runs allowed to left-handed hitters on the season. I’d obviously much prefer the Brewers if they were facing him at Miller Park, but some of the LHBs are viable, even in Pittsburgh. Christian Yelich is the best of the bunch, but he’s also super expensive. Mike Moustakas and Travis Shaw are more affordable, but they’re not necessarily priorities. Curtis Granderson is a little pricey and he comes with plenty of pinch-hit risk. Kingham hasn’t been lights-out against righties, but PNC is one of the worst parks in the league for righty power. I think you can give a Brewers stack a shot in GPPs considering all the talent they have, but they’ll probably miss the cut for me in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.360	0.209	37.3%	13.0%	25.5%	31.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.422	0.257	48.4%	9.6%	22.1%	50.7%	OF	$5,000	OF	$5,800	N/A	N/A
3	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.329	0.098	36.2%	11.5%	16.9%	59.8%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.398	0.291	42.3%	13.4%	17.9%	32.3%	2B	$4,000	2B/3B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
5	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.384	0.275	45.7%	9.8%	25.7%	31.6%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
6	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.363	0.239	44.0%	9.0%	17.3%	29.8%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.295	0.120	48.0%	2.3%	19.5%	42.4%	C	$2,100	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.235	0.073	26.6%	4.0%	27.1%	53.9%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Wade Miley	LEFT	0.125	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	37.5%	75.0%	P	$7,500	P	$6,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.323	0.174	38.7%	8.1%	23.3%	45.2%

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas

Secondary Plays – Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, Curtis Granderson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

I don’t think Wade Miley is a gas can, but he’s also pretty clearly gotten lucky for most of the season. The lefty has allowed a .336 wOBA to righties in his career, but again, PNC Park is bad for RHBs. I do have a little interest in Starling Marte now that his price tag has come down a bit, while Jose Osuna and Francisco Cervelli are viable values. I’d still rather play these guys as individuals rather than as a part of a Pirates stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Pablo Reyes	RIGHT	0.617	0.600	40.0%	37.5%	0.0%	20.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.357	0.192	35.4%	6.6%	21.9%	55.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
3	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.308	0.161	30.3%	11.8%	22.8%	42.7%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.369	0.127	34.6%	17.8%	22.2%	36.5%	C	$3,000	C	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Jordan Luplow	RIGHT	0.349	0.222	13.6%	12.9%	16.1%	36.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Jose Osuna	RIGHT	0.348	0.244	33.3%	4.5%	20.5%	42.4%	OF	$2,000	1B/OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.337	0.191	38.6%	6.3%	19.8%	37.1%	2B	$2,100	2B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.351	0.121	32.9%	7.3%	13.6%	35.3%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Joe Musgrove	RIGHT	0.191	0.111	12.5%	0.0%	20.0%	42.9%	P	$8,500	P	$8,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.359	0.219	30.1%	11.6%	17.4%	38.7%

Elite Plays – Starling Marte

Secondary Plays – Francisco Cervelli, Jose Osuna

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 23rd

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Cincinnati at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Kansas City at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

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