MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-05 19:44:08

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

NY Mets at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Washington
			Jacob deGrom							Stephen Strasburg
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-147							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.292	0.286	31.0%	8.0%	25.5%	44.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.259	0.269	23.6%	8.3%	27.9%	47.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.285	0.255	31.5%	6.2%	32.3%	46.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.250	0.265	31.1%	4.9%	29.9%	45.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jacob deGrom
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,700	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 22	Salary Rank:		of 22	Salary Rank:
	2017	31	3.44	3.53	28.9%	7.1%	45.3%	31.9%	21.3%
	2018	1	2.36	1.59	31.8%	4.6%	38.5%	7.1%	35.7%

We have another strange day of baseball games. This one starts an hour earlier than the rest, so it isn’t included in the early-only slate. It is, however, included in the all-day slate on FanDuel. It’s unfortunate that it isn’t in a bigger slate, as we have two aces on the mound. DeGrom is coming off of a solid 2017 campaign and he was terrific in his first start of the season. He can pitch well in any matchup and any ballpark, but he comes into this game as a sizable underdog against the Nationals.

Quick Breakdown: deGrom is a viable tournament play in the all-day slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Stephen Strasburg
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,100	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		1 of 22	Salary Rank:		of 22	Salary Rank:
	2017	28	3.37	2.52	29.1%	6.7%	46.8%	27.3%	21.4%
	2018	1	2.94	1.42	24.1%	3.5%	42.9%	28.6%	33.3%

Strasburg also had a solid 2017 season, posting a 2.52 ERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. If we are talking strictly about matchups, Strasburg draws the better one of the two pitchers in this game. It also helps that he is pitching at home where he has been dominant throughout his career. Salaries aside, Strasburg is the top pitching option on the schedule today, but as mentioned above, he is only available in the all-day slate on FanDuel.

Quick Breakdown: Strasburg is an elite SP1 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

This is one of those games where we can cross both offenses off of our list of potential targets. We have two elite pitchers on the mound and the game takes place in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Mets are an easy fade against Stephen Strasburg, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 xwOBA since the beginning of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.420	0.391	0.292	40.7%	14.8%	21.8%	38.2%	OF	$2,000	N/A	N/A
2	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.371	0.350	0.220	39.7%	7.6%	17.7%	35.9%	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
3	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.365	0.380	0.268	42.5%	10.1%	20.9%	32.4%	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
4	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.325	0.340	0.173	30.6%	14.6%	22.1%	37.5%	3B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
5	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.312	0.329	0.163	37.1%	9.8%	16.2%	41.1%	2B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
6	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.303	0.327	0.134	36.6%	7.4%	15.8%	35.4%	1B	$2,200	N/A	N/A
7	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.293	0.306	0.198	33.6%	4.9%	15.4%	38.1%	C	$2,500	N/A	N/A
8	Jacob deGrom	RIGHT	0.258	0.265	0.067	29.6%	3.1%	28.1%	40.5%	P	$9,700	N/A	N/A
9	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.263	0.230	0.114	22.1%	2.1%	31.0%	51.6%	SS	$2,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals are slightly preferred over the Mets, but we can avoid both sides in an 11-game slate. Since the start of last season, Jacob deGrom has held both left and right-handed hitters under .290 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.435	0.353	0.223	35.9%	13.6%	14.5%	50.6%	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.373	0.354	0.201	32.7%	12.8%	14.2%	34.1%	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.451	0.422	0.349	35.6%	16.8%	16.5%	37.5%	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.371	0.365	0.251	39.7%	7.1%	23.6%	46.3%	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
5	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.351	0.304	0.152	30.0%	4.8%	21.2%	61.8%	OF	$2,600	N/A	N/A
6	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.357	0.322	0.195	27.9%	7.4%	18.1%	51.5%	SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Brian Goodwin	LEFT	0.330	0.315	0.247	34.4%	8.4%	23.0%	39.5%	OF	$2,600	N/A	N/A
8	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.284	0.285	0.141	34.4%	10.6%	22.9%	36.9%	C	$2,000	N/A	N/A
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.134	0.183	0.073	12.5%	0.0%	25.6%	65.5%	P	$10,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay at Boston – 2:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay							Boston
		Yonny Chirinos							David Price
		RIGHT							LEFT
		Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
		TBD
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.197	33.3%	12.5%	12.5%	16.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.233	0.258	19.3%	5.3%	17.1%	56.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.206	66.7%	0.0%	28.6%	66.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.287	0.301	36.6%	7.6%	25.7%	34.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Yonny Chirinos
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		19 of 22	Salary Rank:		18 of 22	Salary Rank:

	2018	0	3.64	0.00	20.0%	6.7%	33.3%	44.4%	11.1%

We don’t have a line for this game yet (at least not at the time of writing this), but the Chirinos is going to be a huge underdog in a road start against the Rays. He pitched well at the Triple-A level last season, posting a 3.07 FIP with a strikeout rate of 22%, but pitching in the majors in Fenway is obviously a little different. He’s an easy fade in his first career major league start.

Quick Breakdown: Stack the Sox and fade Chirinos in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
David Price
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$12,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		5 of 22	Salary Rank:		1 of 22	Salary Rank:
	2017	11	4.05	3.38	24.0%	7.6%	39.9%	32.9%	20.7%
	2018	1	3.41	0.00	20.8%	0.0%	36.8%	26.3%	21.1%

Price was sharp in his first start of the season, striking out five batters in seven scoreless innings against the Rays. He’s clearly the top pitching option in the early slate, as he gets to square off against the Rays once again. It can be hard to pitch well against the same lineup in back-to-back starts, but the Rays’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .266 and an average strikeout rate of 19% against left-handed pitching. Price should also see plenty of run support, so he can afford to be aggressive.

Quick Breakdown: Price is an elite play in all formats. Eat the chalk.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a significant ballpark bump playing in Fenway, but their matchup is less than ideal. When compared to the other teams in the early slate, Tampa Bay has the worst matchup on the board. Even through an injury-plagued season, David Price held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA last season. As I said in their previous meeting, C.J. Cron and Wilson Ramos are decent tournament fliers, but a full Rays’ fade is also viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.000	0.079	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	20.0%	62.5%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.286	0.239	0.099	23.4%	5.3%	26.0%	60.6%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
3	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.286	0.259	0.135	30.2%	4.5%	32.4%	37.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.313	0.338	0.245	39.7%	5.9%	30.7%	30.2%	1B	$2,300	1B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.314	0.325	0.138	36.2%	5.6%	12.5%	55.2%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
6	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.312	0.282	0.182	34.7%	5.3%	18.9%	44.9%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,400	N/A	N/A
7	Jesus Sucre	RIGHT	0.308	0.309	0.220	30.6%	6.5%	15.2%	33.3%	C	$2,200	C	$2,500	N/A	N/A
8	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.317	0.272	0.102	16.3%	7.4%	1.9%	68.1%	2B	$2,100	OF	$2,400	LF	$5,000
9	Rob Refsnyder	RIGHT	0.200	0.287	0.000	8.3%	21.4%	16.7%	50.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron (GPP), Wilson Ramos (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Boston

The Red Sox are my favorite stack on the board in the early slate. The fact that we didn’t have an overnight line could help ownership a little, as people will have to wait to see how high Boston’s implied total ends up being. They are facing a rookie pitcher at home in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. The one through six batters are all viable here and you can stack them in a number of ways.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.330	0.335	0.187	36.6%	9.4%	11.7%	39.7%	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,500	N/A	N/A
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.340	0.339	0.172	35.6%	10.1%	16.7%	38.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.332	0.350	0.187	34.9%	7.8%	20.5%	41.6%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.390	0.396	0.334	47.6%	9.6%	27.5%	43.2%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.323	0.288	0.143	31.9%	7.9%	18.8%	47.5%	SS	$3,400	SS	$5,000	N/A	N/A
6	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.315	0.287	0.195	37.4%	5.9%	21.3%	47.6%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
7	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.350	0.265	0.161	26.3%	3.0%	11.7%	52.8%	2B	$3,200	2B/SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.301	0.312	0.164	34.5%	9.0%	23.3%	45.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.317	0.281	0.102	25.8%	4.9%	18.4%	47.6%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers

Stackability – GREEN

Miami at Philadelphia – 3:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Miami								Philadelphia
			Caleb Smith							Nick Pivetta
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-150							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.335	0.360	30.4%	11.4%	22.9%	26.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.308	0.297	29.3%	10.8%	24.9%	43.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.360	0.398	40.4%	12.2%	24.3%	27.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.410	0.365	40.7%	8.9%	22.6%	43.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Caleb Smith
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$14,700
	Salary Rank:		15 of 22	Salary Rank:		7 of 22	Salary Rank:		7 of 22
	2017	2	4.86	7.71	20.9%	11.6%	27.6%	32.8%	19.0%
	2018	1	3.30	1.69	34.8%	13.0%	25.0%	58.3%	16.7%

Smith is making his fourth career major league start. He has shown some upside in the minors, but that has yet to translate at the major league level. He did pitch well in his season opener, but the command and high fly-ball rate are concerns. The Phillies may not have the most potent offense in baseball, but they play in one of the best ballparks for home run production.

Quick Breakdown: Smith is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nick Pivetta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$14,600
	Salary Rank:		10 of 22	Salary Rank:		8 of 22	Salary Rank:		8 of 22
	2017	26	4.32	6.02	24.0%	9.8%	43.8%	35.5%	15.9%
	2018	1	4.72	6.75	16.7%	11.1%	36.4%	25.0%	8.3%

Pivetta was a pitcher that we could pick on often last season and judging by his first start, we may want to take the same approach this season. He has shown strikeout upside, but the rest of his numbers are red flags. He has a high walk rate, a low ground ball rate, and he allows a lot of hard contact. With all of that said, he’s a sizable favorite against a Marlins’ offense that will end up being one of the worst in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: There aren’t many pitching options in the early slate, which puts Pivetta on my radar as an SP2 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Even though Nick Pivetta makes an intriguing play in the early slate, I plan to have some exposure to the Marlins’ offense in my non-Pivetta lineups. Since the beginning of last season, Pivetta has allowed a .365 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. I should note that he has been very tough on lefties, which limits the appeal of Justin Bour, who has the best numbers against righties in this lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.182	0.263	0.043	29.0%	7.5%	30.2%	54.8%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,500
2	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.318	0.323	0.192	33.3%	7.9%	20.7%	35.2%	OF	$2,900	2B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,400
3	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.326	0.293	0.152	28.9%	3.7%	19.7%	52.5%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,500
4	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.376	0.394	0.243	41.7%	11.1%	19.9%	40.4%	1B	$2,400	1B	$2,800	1B	$5,600
5	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.345	0.302	0.119	27.7%	15.9%	25.6%	55.3%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,300
6	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.312	0.294	0.163	25.0%	13.4%	20.8%	58.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,500
7	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.326	0.312	0.070	20.0%	8.8%	10.5%	51.9%	SS	$2,400	2B/SS	$2,800	2B	$5,800
8	Chad Wallach	RIGHT	0.044	0.095	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	60.0%	50.0%	C	$2,100	C	$2,100	C	$3,900
9	Caleb Smith	LEFT	0.000	0.044	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	100.0%	P	$5,800	P	$7,600	P	$14,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Lewis Brinson, Starlin Castro, Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies are an intriguing stack that should fly under the radar. Citizens Bank Park is a great ballpark for offensive production and they are squaring off against Caleb Smith, who hasn’t had a ton of success in his first three major league starts. The sample size is obviously small, but Smith has allowed a .360+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in his first major league stint. I love the four-man stack (one through five without Nick Williams) and Rhys Hoskins is one of the top individual plays on the board.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.349	0.344	0.176	24.8%	9.9%	11.7%	59.1%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,500
2	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.334	0.326	0.167	29.7%	12.9%	8.6%	51.3%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,000
3	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.319	0.267	0.131	20.7%	5.4%	29.0%	58.6%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100	LF	$5,500
4	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.407	0.450	0.439	48.4%	25.9%	19.0%	35.5%	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,100	1B	$10,100
5	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.350	0.349	0.266	37.9%	11.4%	17.9%	47.1%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,500
6	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.000		0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	SS	$2,500	2B/3B	$3,200	2B	$6,500
7	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.278	0.289	0.174	33.9%	7.9%	14.0%	48.8%	3B	$2,200	3B	$3,000	3B	$5,400
8	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.209	0.242	0.057	22.7%	5.4%	35.1%	59.1%	C	$2,000	C	$2,900	C	$5,800
9	Nick Pivetta	RIGHT	0.000	0.072	0.000	11.1%	0.0%	47.1%	77.8%	P	$6,300	P	$7,300	P	$14,600

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Aaron Altherr, Scott Kingery

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Texas								Oakland
			Martin Perez							Daniel Mengden
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			OAK-140							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.293	0.286	28.1%	5.0%	21.9%	55.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.287	0.299	24.3%	2.2%	20.9%	37.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.362	0.368	34.5%	8.5%	12.3%	45.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.284	0.356	31.7%	7.6%	14.3%	39.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Martin Perez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		19 of 22	Salary Rank:		14 of 22	Salary Rank:		17 of 22
	2017	32	5.04	4.82	14.2%	7.8%	47.3%	33.3%	15.2%

Perez used to be a pitcher that we couldn’t target because of his low strikeout rate, but that we couldn’t stack against because of his high ground ball and soft contact rates. Last season was a little different, as he kept the low strikeout rate but allowed more fly balls and hard contact. He doesn’t offer enough strikeout upside to warrant consideration in DFS, especially in a road start against the A’s.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Perez in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Daniel Mengden
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		14 of 22	Salary Rank:		12 of 22	Salary Rank:		11 of 22
	2017	7	4.68	3.14	17.2%	5.3%	39.2%	25.2%	18.3%
	2018	1	3.76	7.94	18.5%	3.7%	33.3%	47.6%	19.1%

Mengden wasn’t nearly as good as his 3.14 ERA led you to believe last season. The advanced numbers weren’t nearly as kind — 4.68 SIERA with a below-average strikeout rate. While he is favored today, the game features a total of 9.5 runs… in OAKLAND. This is a pitcher-friendly ballpark, so an over/under that high should scare us off both starting pitchers. The Rangers can strikeout often, but they have a ton of power in their lineup when facing a right-handed pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Mengden in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Even though this game has a massive total for a game being played in Oakland, it doesn’t feel like it’s going to be a popular one to target, especially on the Rangers’ side. That’s certainly fine with me, as they draw an exploitable matchup against Daniel Mengden, who allowed a .356 xwOBA to right-handed hitters last season. This is a good spot for the first six batters in the Rangers’ lineup and outside of Joey Gallo, they should come at fairly low ownership.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-soo Choo	LEFT	0.336	0.372	0.186	40.3%	11.7%	22.3%	45.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,800
2	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.365	0.370	0.351	46.9%	13.7%	35.5%	28.9%	1B	$3,600	1B/OF	$4,300	1B	$8,300
3	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.344	0.305	0.168	30.2%	5.4%	14.2%	49.4%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,500
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.355	0.343	0.202	33.9%	8.3%	14.7%	43.5%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,200	3B	$7,000
5	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.330	0.331	0.188	35.5%	9.8%	20.3%	43.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,900
6	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.321	0.314	0.221	34.0%	9.5%	28.4%	43.2%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	C	$5,500
7	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.294	0.305	0.215	38.8%	5.8%	24.8%	39.5%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,200	2B	$6,300
8	Ryan Rua	RIGHT	0.241	0.257	0.100	26.7%	10.1%	39.3%	40.0%	OF	$2,100	1B/OF	$2,500	IF/OF	$5,000
9	Drew Robinson	LEFT	0.330	0.298	0.227	32.1%	13.4%	36.6%	42.9%	2B	$2,700	3B/OF	$2,500	IF/OF	$4,900

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Robinson Chirinos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Oakland

The A’s are another viable stack option in the early slate. Their offense is absolutely loaded this season. It’s rare to see an offense that strikes out at a low rate, draws a lot of walks, and yet still has the highest fly ball rate in baseball. Their ability to get the ball in the air negates Martin Perez best strength (his ground ball rate). All of the right-handed batters are viable here, as Perez gave up a .368 xwOBA to righties last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.299	0.299	0.142	41.0%	9.4%	23.9%	40.3%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,400
2	Chad Pinder	RIGHT	0.338	0.348	0.200	32.3%	10.6%	26.0%	39.1%	OF	$2,400	OF/SS	$2,900	2B	$5,800
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.328	0.365	0.142	30.0%	11.8%	19.9%	39.1%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,700
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.327	0.396	0.228	50.6%	16.0%	28.8%	42.4%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	LF	$8,300
5	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.308	0.330	0.226	29.7%	9.8%	26.2%	48.6%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,400	IF/OF	$7,900
6	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.334	0.319	0.207	38.2%	10.2%	33.7%	25.5%	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,100
7	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.313	0.379	0.101	44.2%	15.5%	20.2%	50.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,900	RF	$5,800
8	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.270	0.310	0.081	21.0%	10.4%	9.6%	56.0%	C	$2,500	C	$3,400	C	$6,900
9	Jake Smolinski	RIGHT	0.362	0.378	0.063	38.5%	5.3%	15.8%	38.5%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,400	CF	$4,500

Elite Plays – Marcus Semien, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman

Secondary Plays – Chad Pinder, Matt Olson

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								San Diego
			Tyler Anderson							Joey Lucchesi
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SD -100							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.307	0.268	27.7%	6.1%	26.5%	46.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.503	0.395	50.0%	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.373	0.319	33.0%	8.6%	20.7%	41.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	0.372	40.0%	0.0%	6.3%	28.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Anderson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$15,400
	Salary Rank:		12 of 22	Salary Rank:		6 of 22	Salary Rank:		6 of 22
	2017	15	4.14	4.81	22.4%	7.2%	43.7%	32.0%	24.1%
	2018	1	6.98	27.00	18.8%	25.0%	22.2%	22.2%	0.0%

Anderson got off to a shaky start this season, but has a bounce-back opportunity against the Padres. As we all know, Petco Park is a good ballpark for pitchers and the Padres are obviously a good matchup for strikeouts. With so few pitching options in the early slate, Anderson is in the mix as an SP2 in both cash games and tournaments. I slightly prefer Nick Pivetta, which feels wrong, but we have to work with the information we are given in each slate.

Quick Breakdown: Anderson is viable as an SP2 in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Joey Lucchesi
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$9,900
	Salary Rank:		19 of 22	Salary Rank:		17 of 22	Salary Rank:		18 of 22

	2018	1	5.40	5.79	4.6%	0.0%	35.0%	42.9%	19.1%

Lucchesi gave up seven hits and three earned runs in his major league debut. He only managed to rack up one strikeout. He’s a pitcher to keep an eye on moving forward, but he should be avoided until we see him flash some form at the major league level. He draws a difficult matchup today against the Rockies, who have some serious right-handed power in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lucchesi in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies will be a popular stack in the early slate and rightly so. They are facing a rookie southpaw that really struggled in his major league debut. This isn’t the best ballpark for offensive production, but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be games where teams score 10+ runs here. The first four batters make an intriguing stack, as you get three right-handed batters with power and Charlie Blackmon, who has excellent splits against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.410	0.351	0.245	35.4%	7.4%	16.0%	50.8%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,700	CF	$10,300
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.421	0.403	0.210	38.6%	10.6%	8.9%	54.2%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,600	2B	$9,100
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.538	0.457	0.423	39.1%	9.3%	10.5%	24.6%	3B	$4,500	3B	$5,400	3B	$10,200
4	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.410	0.344	0.338	50.6%	10.9%	34.6%	28.2%	SS	$2,700	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,200
5	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.240	0.224	0.109	33.0%	4.1%	30.3%	57.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,200
6	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.301	0.269	0.131	27.3%	5.5%	22.0%	64.9%	1B	$3,200	1B/OF	$4,800	LF	$9,500
7	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.352	0.300	0.104	29.6%	4.3%	17.4%	44.7%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,800
8	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.413	0.329	0.250	31.2%	14.1%	23.2%	44.3%	C	$2,700	C	$3,600	C	$7,600
9	Tyler Anderson	LEFT	0.000	0.045	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	69.2%	33.3%	P	$6,000	P	$7,900	P	$15,400

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Diego

The Padres aren’t an offense that I want a lot of exposure to, but there are two batters that stand out today. Since the beginning of last season, Tyler Anderson has allowed a .319 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Hunter Renfroe mashes southpaws, while Christian Villanueva hit three home runs in a game earlier this week. Both are viable plays here and they should come at decent ownership with Anderson likely being a popular pitching selection.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Manuel Margot	RIGHT	0.342	0.280	0.186	26.2%	9.8%	18.2%	43.7%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,900
2	Jose Pirela	RIGHT	0.396	0.313	0.267	41.8%	8.2%	23.5%	47.7%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,100	IF/OF	$5,600
3	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.321	0.306	0.149	24.9%	6.5%	13.4%	64.5%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,300
4	Hunter Renfroe	RIGHT	0.439	0.388	0.372	36.5%	10.1%	18.8%	30.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000	RF	$5,800
5	Christian Villanueva	RIGHT	0.594	0.260	0.667	46.2%	0.0%	27.8%	53.8%	3B	$2,500	3B	$2,500	3B	$4,800
6	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.280	0.271	0.105	20.5%	3.8%	11.9%	39.8%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,500
7	Carlos Asuaje	LEFT	0.257	0.263	0.051	24.6%	10.0%	17.8%	47.6%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,000	2B	$5,900
8	A.J. Ellis	RIGHT	0.254	0.278	0.119	40.0%	6.3%	25.0%	46.4%	C	$2,100	C	$2,600	C	$4,500
9	Joey Lucchesi	LEFT								P	$5,500	P	$5,200	P	$9,900

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 5th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

NY Mets at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay at Boston – 2:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron (GPP), Wilson Ramos (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers

Stackability – GREEN

Miami at Philadelphia – 3:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Lewis Brinson, Starlin Castro, Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Aaron Altherr, Scott Kingery

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Robinson Chirinos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Marcus Semien, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman

Secondary Plays – Chad Pinder, Matt Olson

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Hunter Renfroe, Christian Villanueva

Secondary Plays – Manuel Margot, Jose Pirela

Stackability – ORANGE

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