MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-12 01:52:15

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Arizona at NY Mets – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Arizona					NY Mets
			Braden Shipley					Noah Syndergaard
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -230					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.420	2	42.9%	13.2%	SP vs. Left	0.306	14	28.2%	25.9%
SP vs. Right	0.331	2	40.7%	13.2%	SP vs. Right	0.256	13	25.6%	31.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Braden Shipley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,400
					FPPG:		23.3	FPPG:		10.1
					Pitcher Rating:		31.9	Pitcher Rank:		20
L30 Days	3	103.0	6.05	4.15	13.2%	14.5%	6.5%	48.1%	35.2%	41.8%
2016	3	103.0	6.05	4.15	13.2%	14.5%	6.5%	48.1%	35.2%	41.8%

Shipley will be making his fourth career start today against the Mets. He didn’t show a ton of strikeout upside in the minors and through three starts, he has a higher walk rate (14.5%) than strikeout rate (13.2%). He comes into this game as the heaviest underdog on the schedule today. While there are worse things than a matchup against the Mets, his run support could be limited with Noah Syndergaard pitching opposite him.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Noah Syndergaard
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,500	Salary:		$11,800
					FPPG:		38.8	FPPG:		21.5
					Pitcher Rating:		97.4	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	4	112.3	3.43	3.04	28.2%	8.7%	12.9%	43.8%	23.4%	36.9%
2016	21	97.2	2.78	2.64	30.0%	5.2%	14.6%	50.9%	26.1%	29.6%
2015	24	99.2	2.95	3.24	27.5%	5.1%	12.2%	46.5%	33.6%	24.6%

Syndergaard is the top rated pitcher in the slate today. Not only is he one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he draws a favorable matchup against the Diamondbacks, who are ranked 17th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season. Meanwhile, Syndergaard is sporting a cool 2.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. He should be able to mow through this lineup and pick up his tenth win of the season.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

It comes as no surprise to see the Diamondbacks with the lowest run projection on the board. They have to face Noah Syndergaard in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Arizona has not fared well offensively on the road this season and strikeout at the fifth highest rate against right-handed pitching. In the last two seasons combined, Syndergaard has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.158 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.1% (26 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.84 (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.44 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.00 (20 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.302	0.106	0.356	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,100
2	Michael Bourn	LEFT	0.266	0.068	0.182	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,800
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.389	0.221	0.320	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,200
4	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.370	0.227	0.390	3B	$2,700	3B	$4,400
5	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.306	0.151	0.488	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,800
6	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.309	0.153	0.227	OF	$2,400	3B/OF	$2,900
7	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.267	0.091	0.213	SS	$2,300	OF/SS	$2,400
8	Tuffy Gosewisch	RIGHT	0.219	0.059	0.092	C	$2,200	C	$2,100
9	Braden Shipley	RIGHT	0.249	0.200	0.000	P	$6,000	P	$5,400
	Team Averages	—	0.297	0.142	0.252	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

The Mets rarely have an above-average run projection when compared to the other teams in the slate, but they do today against Braden Shipley. His first three starts haven’t exactly gone as planned, as he has a 6.05 SIERA with a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. While I expect the Mets to score a few runs today, it’s hard to predict where that production will come from. Their lineup these days looks more like a Triple-A lineup than a major league lineup.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.5% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.93 (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.71 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.50 (9 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.366	0.221	0.296	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200
2	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.330	0.171	0.493	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,600
3	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.338	0.262	0.255	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,900
4	James Loney	LEFT	0.328	0.108	0.316	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,300
5	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.275	0.111	0.299	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,000
6	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.356	0.247	0.261	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400
7	Travis D’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.312	0.157	0.221	C	$2,200	C	$2,900
8	Matt Reynolds	LEFT	0.181	0.093	0.197	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,900
9	Noah Syndergaard	RIGHT	0.263	0.188	0.172	P	$10,500	P	$11,800
	Team Averages	—	0.305	0.173	0.279	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker, Jay Bruce

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
San Diego					Pittsburgh
			Christian Friedrich					Jameson Taillon
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -180					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.303	5	30.2%	18.9%	SP vs. Left	0.336	4	31.6%	17.7%
SP vs. Right	0.350	9	30.5%	16.2%	SP vs. Right	0.271	3	40.3%	24.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Christian Friedrich
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$4,900
					FPPG:		23.5	FPPG:		11.1
					Pitcher Rating:		39.6	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	5	83.8	5.22	5.47	13.2%	7.0%	8.1%	37.1%	41.6%	28.9%
2016	15	92.5	4.87	4.76	17.4%	9.7%	8.5%	44.1%	35.9%	32.1%
2015	0	0.0	4.20	5.25	16.7%	9.3%	11.2%	47.4%	29.4%	28.1%

Friedrich has not been sharp this season, especially in his last five starts. During that stretch, he has a 5.22 SIERA (5.47 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 13.2%. He gives up a lot of fly balls and has allowed a hard hit contact rate over 30% on the season. Even though the Pirates were shut out by Edwin Jackson last night, this is a good spot for them to bounce back. As a large underdog on the road, Friedrich is an easy fade in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jameson Taillon
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$8,600
					FPPG:		27.7	FPPG:		15.2
					Pitcher Rating:		83.0	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	4	85.8	2.75	2.63	22.9%	1.0%	10.2%	58.3%	23.6%	34.3%
2016	9	86.1	3.27	3.29	20.5%	2.9%	8.3%	54.8%	22.9%	35.0%

Taillon has been impressive in his first nine major league starts. He owns a 3.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.5% and a walk rate of only 2.9%. He has good velocity (mid-90s) on his fastball and a mean curveball. He draws arguably the top matchup on the board, as the Padres are ranked 29th in both team wOBA and team K% against right-handed pitching this season. The easy route is to take Noah Syndergaard and surround him with value, but there may be more upside in targeting Taillon and loading up on hitters in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres have a few decent left-handed hitters in their lineup, but they are still one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching. They come into today’s game with the fourth lowest team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Jameson Taillon, who has pitched well in his first major league stint. Alex Dickerson and Ryan Schimpf are intriguing one-offs for tournaments, but the rest of this offense can be avoided.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.294 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.4% (29 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.46 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.79 (17 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.331	0.106	0.383	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.340	0.201	0.447	1B	$3,800	1B	$5,000
3	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.340	0.176	0.328	3B	$3,200	2B/3B	$3,800
4	Alex Dickerson	LEFT	0.369	0.261	0.434	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400
5	Ryan Schimpf	LEFT	0.374	0.342	0.293	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,400
6	Jabari Blash	RIGHT	0.301	0.083	0.386	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,400
7	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.277	0.155	0.156	C	$2,300	C	$2,200
8	Jose Rondon	RIGHT	0.158	0.000	0.145	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,400
9	Christian Friedrich	LEFT	0.068	0.000	0.000	P	$5,600	P	$4,900
	Team Averages	—	0.284	0.147	0.286	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Alex Dickerson, Ryan Schimpf

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

Raise your hand if you were burned by the Pirates last night. Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, and Andrew McCutchen were all owned by more than 20% of the field in most double-ups on FanDuel and the three combined for a measly three fantasy points. My hope is that people will jump ship and the Pirates ownership will be lower than it should be. Their matchup against Christian Friedrich is an elite one, as he has allowed a .350 wOBA and a 30.5% hard hit contact rate to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.336 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.172 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.0% (27 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.96 (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.54 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.71 (5 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.340	0.117	0.341	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,900
2	David Freese	RIGHT	0.361	0.223	0.342	1B	$3,200	1B/3B	$4,600
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.363	0.193	0.281	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000
4	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.315	0.153	0.425	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,600
5	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.321	0.181	0.259	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,800
6	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.268	0.129	0.395	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.358	0.113	0.305	C	$2,700	C	$3,100
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.353	0.141	0.257	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,500
9	Jameson Taillon	RIGHT			0.000	P	$7,400	P	$8,600
	Team Averages	—	0.335	0.156	0.289	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – David Freese, Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Jung-Ho Kang, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Houston at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Houston					Minnesota
			Doug Fister					Jose Berrios
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -120					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.345	20	33.3%	13.6%	SP vs. Left	0.327	1	30.8%	30.7%
SP vs. Right	0.303	10	26.4%	16.1%	SP vs. Right	0.489	6	40.5%	17.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Doug Fister
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,100
					FPPG:		28.6	FPPG:		14.0
					Pitcher Rating:		41.7	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	5	96.2	4.82	3.14	16.8%	8.0%	7.1%	37.6%	38.7%	30.1%
2016	22	98.3	4.87	3.47	15.4%	8.2%	6.1%	46.1%	34.8%	30.5%
2015	15	110.3	4.47	4.19	14.0%	5.4%	5.2%	44.6%	34.1%	29.5%

Fister owns a 3.47 ERA on the season, but his ERA estimators (xFIP & SIERA) both suggest some regression moving forward. He has been an easy fade for me all season thanks to a strikeout rate of only 15.4%. He isn’t particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate and he has to face a Twins’ offense that has caught fire in the last few weeks. Fister may be a small favorite here, but the over/under is set at 9.0 runs. There is more risk than potential reward for Fister, who is a better real life pitcher than he is in daily fantasy.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jose Berrios
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$6,300
					FPPG:		19.5	FPPG:		8.2
					Pitcher Rating:		67.0	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	2	98.0	3.95	5.73	20.0%	2.2%	7.1%	26.5%	38.2%	29.4%
2016	6	86.2	4.32	8.31	24.2%	10.8%	9.3%	31.1%	40.5%	35.5%

Berrios did not pitch well in his first stint in the majors, so the Twins sent him back to the minors. His first two starts after being called back up haven’t been great, but at least there was an improvement in his peripheral stats. Berrios is a pitcher that should be around for years to come, but now may not be the time to use him in daily fantasy. Until he flashes some form and/or draws an elite matchup, he can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros are an offense that I expect to get overlooked in the early slate. The two games in Texas and Milwaukee should soak up a lot of ownership, which could lead to the Astros being severely under-owned. If that ends up being the case, they could be a great stack for tournaments. Jose Berrios has really struggled at the major league level, allowing a .327 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .489 wOBA to right-handed hitters in six starts.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.2% (28 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.90 (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.35 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.62 (8 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.332	0.168	0.219	OF	$4,100	OF	$3,900
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.188	0.050	0.185	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,800
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.355	0.161	0.393	2B	$4,300	2B	$5,300
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.370	0.221	0.306	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,700
5	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.313	0.215	0.296	C	$3,000	C	$3,400
6	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.301	0.144	0.333	1B	$2,900	1B/3B	$3,600
7	A.J. Reed	LEFT	0.247	0.118	0.164	1B	$2,100	1B	$3,400
8	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.314	0.213	0.151	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900
9	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.275	0.092	0.307	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.299	0.154	0.262	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

In the last two weeks, no team in baseball has a higher team wOBA than the Twins (.385). They come into today’s game with a mediocre run projection, but there is nothing wrong with their matchup against Doug Fister. He is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .345 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .303 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. He has also given up 30 home runs during that stretch, despite being a ground ball pitcher.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.320 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.167 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (21 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.95 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.61 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.38 (11 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.321	0.203	0.445	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,900
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.331	0.122	0.512	1B	$3,200	1B	$5,100
3	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.391	0.323	0.440	OF	$3,400	OF	$5,100
4	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.365	0.246	0.360	OF	$3,400	3B/OF	$4,600
5	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.305	0.175	0.220	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600
6	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.317	0.196	0.429	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,000
7	Jorge Polanco	RIGHT	0.367	0.164	0.407	3B	$3,000	2B/3B	$3,300
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.281	0.093	0.291	C	$2,600	C	$3,000
9	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.323	0.141	0.278	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600
	Team Averages	—	0.333	0.185	0.376	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Max Kepler

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado at Texas – 2:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Colorado					Texas
			Chad Bettis					Lucas Harrell
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX -138					11.0
SP vs. Left	0.322	8	27.5%	18.0%	SP vs. Left	0.274	2	23.5%	20.3%
SP vs. Right	0.350	19	34.8%	18.9%	SP vs. Right	0.346	1	27.3%	13.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chad Bettis
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$6,600
					FPPG:		26.1	FPPG:		12.0
					Pitcher Rating:		49.2	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	5	99.2	4.48	3.45	19.1%	9.9%	10.5%	51.7%	26.4%	25.0%
2016	23	95.0	4.16	5.13	17.6%	6.5%	9.1%	51.7%	25.7%	30.8%
2015	20	94.1	4.08	4.23	19.5%	8.4%	9.8%	49.3%	28.5%	31.8%

Bettis has a ground ball rate over 50% on the season, but that’s really the only statistic that stands out in his pitching table above. In 23 starts, he has a 5.13 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.6%. He is listed as an underdog today in the game with the highest over/under (11 runs) on the board. The Rangers are very good against right-handed pitching, ranking tenth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Lucas Harrell
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$4,400
					FPPG:		27.4	FPPG:		13.1
					Pitcher Rating:		36.2	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	5	94.0	5.82	4.62	15.4%	14.5%	6.4%	44.3%	35.4%	29.6%
2016	7	95.4	5.27	3.46	16.7%	11.9%	7.2%	44.7%	36.8%	25.6%

Harrell has bounced around the majors in his career and has never really found his footing. In seven starts this season, he has a 5.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.7%. He walks too many batters and his career splits show that he hasn’t been great against batters from either side of the plate. Even though the Rockies struggle on the road, there is no reason to look to either of these pitchers in what is expected to be the highest scoring game in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies rarely have one of the highest run projections when they are on the road. They come into today’s game with the second highest team total on the board, as they square off against Lucas Harrell. In his career, Harrell has allowed a .336 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .337 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The top five batters in this lineup are all in play in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.337 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.182 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.3% (13 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.19 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.28 (2 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.360	0.182	0.423	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,300
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.340	0.111	0.363	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,300
3	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.411	0.288	0.435	OF	$3,600	OF	$5,400
4	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.382	0.303	0.351	3B	$4,300	3B	$5,000
5	David Dahl	LEFT	0.423	0.279	0.442	OF	$3,200	OF	$2,900
6	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.335	0.175	0.348	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,500
7	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.326	0.167	0.220	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400
8	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.311	0.120	0.324	SS	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,200
9	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.337	0.171	0.197	C	$2,600	C	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.358	0.200	0.345	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Areando, David Dahl

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas

The Rangers picked up a nice come from behind win against the Rockies last night thanks to a two-out single from Adrian Beltre. They should be licking their chops for today’s matchup against Chad Bettis, who has struggled with hitters from both sides of the plate. In the last two seasons, Bettis has allowed a .350 wOBA and a 34.8% hard hit contact rate to right-handed hitters.

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.320 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.170 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.9% (9 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.67 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.72 (1 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.380	0.200	0.403	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,400
2	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.306	0.165	0.184	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,200
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.352	0.208	0.340	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,800
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.310	0.145	0.281	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,400
5	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.336	0.217	0.351	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,100
6	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.348	0.166	0.354	C	$3,500	C	$4,600
7	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.355	0.231	0.535	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,200
8	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.350	0.170	0.277	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
9	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.290	0.086	0.315	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.336	0.176	0.338	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Adrian Beltre, Jonathan Lucroy

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Ian Desmond, Carlos Beltran, Rougned Odor

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Atlanta					Milwaukee
			Roberto Hernandez					Matt Garza
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL -140					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.324	3	30.7%	6.0%	SP vs. Left	0.368	15	34.7%	14.2%
SP vs. Right	0.340	7	27.6%	17.8%	SP vs. Right	0.342	14	34.2%	15.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Roberto Hernandez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$4,200
					FPPG:		30.0	FPPG:		13.1
					Pitcher Rating:		43.7	Pitcher Rank:		16
L30 Days	1	95.0	4.11	5.40	18.2%	4.6%	13.7%	47.1%	35.3%	23.5%
2016	1	95.0	4.11	5.40	18.2%	4.6%	13.7%	47.1%	35.3%	23.5%
2015	11	119.7	4.69	4.36	11.8%	7.3%	6.4%	51.9%	28.8%	29.5%

This has been quite the series so far. It hasn’t been as high scoring as most of us have expected, but it continues to be one of my favorites to target. These two teams have some of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. The Braves situation is so bad that they are pitching Roberto Hernandez (formerly known as Fausto Carmona) today. In the last two seasons, his SIERA is close to 5.00 and his strikeout rate is under 13%. As an underdog on the road, Hernandez can be avoided in both cash games and GPPs.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Garza
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$5,700
					FPPG:		20.3	FPPG:		8.6
					Pitcher Rating:		47.9	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	5	89.0	4.66	4.55	13.3%	8.3%	9.4%	55.9%	22.6%	39.4%
2016	10	87.3	4.82	5.03	13.1%	7.8%	7.5%	53.8%	27.4%	38.0%
2015	25	95.7	4.68	5.63	15.6%	8.6%	7.8%	45.0%	32.9%	33.0%

Garza is always one of my favorite pitchers to see on the schedule. He doesn’t discriminate when it comes to his opponents, as he gives up runs to everyone. In ten starts this season, he has a 4.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13.1%. He does induce a lot of ground balls, but that can be troublesome when he isn’t striking anyone out in the process. Garza will not find himself on any of my lineups, even though the Braves are ranked dead last in team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have struggled offensively all season, but they draw one of the best matchups on the board and they see a nice ballpark boost playing in Miller Park. Matt Garza has allowed a .368 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .342 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. He has also given up a hard hit contact rate of 38%, which is one of the highest in baseball.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.293 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.123 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.7% (8 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.70 (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.55 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.27 (13 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.335	0.113	0.362	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,800
2	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.282	0.074	0.351	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,800
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.373	0.234	0.381	1B	$3,400	1B	$5,000
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.308	0.180	0.339	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.344	0.111	0.410	OF	$2,400	OF	$4,900
6	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.305	0.165	0.393	3B	$2,700	3B	$4,500
7	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.314	0.109	0.316	2B	$2,700	2B/OF	$3,700
8	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.309	0.130	0.270	C	$2,200	C	$2,900
9	Roberto Hernandez	RIGHT	0.114	0.000	0.000	P	$5,700	P	$4,200
	Team Averages	—	0.298	0.124	0.314	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Erick Aybar, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee

The Brewers have the fourth highest implied team total on the board today. If A.J. Pierzynski is catching for the Braves, I may end up going with a full Brewers’ stack in both cash games and tournaments. In 55 stolen base attempts against Pierzynski this season, 42 of them have been successful. More importantly, the Braves get to face Roberto Hernandez, who has allowed a .324 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .340 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.151 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 26.0% (30 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.03 (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.05 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.73 (4 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.346	0.129	0.440	3B	$4,000	SS	$5,200
2	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.228	0.053	0.253	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,500
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.362	0.211	0.462	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,500
4	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.271	0.070	0.373	OF	$2,900	3B/OF	$4,600
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.309	0.229	0.314	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,100
6	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.306	0.127	0.327	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,800
7	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.317	0.193	0.330	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700
8	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.251	0.089	0.300	C	$2,600	C	$3,200
9	Matt Garza	RIGHT	0.108	0.000	0.000	P	$6,500	P	$5,700
	Team Averages	—	0.278	0.122	0.311	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 11th

Stackability Rating System:

Arizona at NY Mets – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker, Jay Bruce

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Alex Dickerson, Ryan Schimpf

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – David Freese, Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Jung-Ho Kang, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Houston at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Max Kepler

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado at Texas – 2:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Areando, David Dahl

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Adrian Beltre, Jonathan Lucroy

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Ian Desmond, Carlos Beltran, Rougned Odor

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Erick Aybar, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar, Orlando Arcia, Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett, Chris Carter, Hernan Perez

Stackability – GREEN

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

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