MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-14 17:39:27

Jump to Page 1 2

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

San Francisco at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
San Francisco								Miami
			Dereck Rodriguez							Dan Straily
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIA-105							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.341	0.379	34.8%	9.4%	15.6%	45.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.404	0.430	46.3%	17.1%	18.1%	26.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.393	0.311	36.8%	10.3%	24.1%	38.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.252	0.408	50.9%	5.8%	17.4%	38.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dereck Rodriguez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		17 of 18	Salary Rank:		10 of 18	Salary Rank:

	2018	2	4.45	5.25	19.7%	9.8%	42.5%	35.7%	11.9%
	L14	2	4.47	5.25	19.7%	9.8%	42.5%	35.7%	11.9%

Rodriguez is making his third career major league start today against the Marlins. He’s not a top pitching prospect and while he did have a 25% strikeout rate at the Triple-A level earlier this season, he posted a 5.36 FIP. This is a good matchup in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but Rodriguez is an inexperienced major league pitcher that is playing on the road. At this point, he offers more risk than potential upside.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Rodriguez in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dan Straily
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		16 of 18	Salary Rank:		14 of 18	Salary Rank:
	2017	33	4.43	4.26	22.1%	7.8%	34.2%	32.6%	19.1%
	2018	8	5.27	4.08	17.8%	12.6%	31.9%	48.3%	9.2%
	L14	3	4.41	5.93	19.4%	8.1%	33.3%	46.7%	6.7%

Straily hasn’t been able to find a groove since returning from injury. In his eight starts this season, he has a 5.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and a walk rate of 13%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher, but that’s aided by this ballpark, which is one of the toughest on home run production each and every year. He draws a favorable matchup against the Giants, whose projected lineup has a .297 xwOBA with a 31% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Pitching options are thin in the early slate, which puts Straily in play for tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Even though I have some interest in Dan Straily, that doesn’t mean that the Giants are an auto-fade. The potential outcome in this matchup is broad for both Straily and the Giants’ offense. On the season, he has allowed a .405+ xwOBA and a 46%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Joe Panik, Buster Posey, Andrew McCutchen, and Brandon Crawford all boast a .355+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.397	0.362	0.099	34.9%	8.5%	7.3%	48.5%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.358	0.372	0.096	35.7%	6.1%	14.3%	46.1%	C	$3,000	1B/C	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.368	0.345	0.173	47.0%	12.9%	21.3%	31.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.361	0.396	0.174	41.2%	5.7%	20.3%	40.2%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.305	0.335	0.146	44.6%	2.9%	25.3%	40.5%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Pablo Sandoval	SWITCH	0.346	0.388	0.195	46.7%	7.4%	29.5%	51.7%	3B	$2,300	1B/3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.242	0.353	0.027	32.0%	7.3%	31.7%	44.0%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	Mac Williamson	RIGHT	0.296	0.282	0.163	30.3%	5.8%	30.8%	54.5%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	Dereck Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.000	0.133	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$6,000	P	$6,500	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.297	0.330	0.119	34.7%	6.3%	31.2%	39.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joe Panik, Buster Posey, Andrew McCutchen, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins are facing a rookie pitcher in Dereck Rodriguez, who is only making his third career major league start. His results haven’t been great so far, but the Marlins have struggled to hit right-handed pitching all season. We should rule out a full stack in this ballpark, but Derek Dietrich, J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour, and Brian Anderson all own at least a .340 xwOBA against righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.301	0.336	0.113	37.0%	5.7%	20.6%	50.6%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.340	0.424	0.165	38.2%	4.2%	21.1%	43.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.400	0.427	0.235	44.6%	7.2%	15.8%	43.8%	C	$3,500	C	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.406	0.370	0.252	42.0%	17.1%	22.0%	38.4%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.348	0.402	0.107	37.0%	7.1%	21.4%	48.1%	3B	$3,400	3B/OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.250	0.277	0.081	34.8%	2.6%	36.8%	52.2%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
7	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.288	0.191	0.118	31.5%	4.8%	14.0%	56.6%	SS	$2,200	3B/SS	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.270	0.345	0.135	38.1%	4.2%	35.5%	51.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.109	0.105	0.000	0.0%	9.1%	63.6%	50.0%	P	$6,200	P	$6,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.301	0.320	0.134	33.7%	6.9%	27.9%	48.2%

Elite Plays – Justin Bour (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour (Cash), Derek Dietrich, J.T. Realmuto (DK), Brian Anderson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Colorado at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								Philadelphia
			German Marquez							Vince Velasquez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-124							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.348	0.325	32.2%	8.9%	18.4%	40.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.381	0.313	32.3%	7.9%	27.0%	36.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.342	0.298	35.6%	9.7%	25.5%	50.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.282	0.274	31.4%	8.5%	29.8%	42.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
German Marquez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$5,300	Salary:		$10,100
	Salary Rank:		8 of 18	Salary Rank:		18 of 18	Salary Rank:		16 of 18
	2017	29	4.27	4.39	21.0%	7.0%	45.2%	34.5%	17.7%
	2018	13	4.23	4.79	21.8%	9.2%	44.6%	33.7%	20.0%
	L14	2	3.75	8.10	26.1%	8.7%	43.3%	46.7%	16.7%

Marquez is having a decent season overall, especially for a Rockies’ pitcher. He owns a 4.23 SIERA with a 22% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate. While he’s pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark today, this is actually a ballpark bump when compared to Coors Field. His matchup against the Phillies is exploitable, as their projected lineup has a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Marquez is a sneaky tournament play in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Vince Velasquez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$13,600
	Salary Rank:		4 of 18	Salary Rank:		7 of 18	Salary Rank:		8 of 18
	2017	15	4.73	5.13	21.6%	10.8%	42.5%	38.1%	15.2%
	2018	13	3.45	4.95	28.3%	8.2%	39.3%	31.9%	15.7%
	L14	2	3.08	9.90	27.7%	6.4%	57.1%	48.4%	9.7%

Velasquez was rocked in his last start and so was my bankroll in the process. I’m not going to let a single bad outing deter me from playing him again though, as his overall numbers are still solid. In 13 starts, he has a 3.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. The Rockies have struggled on the road this season and have six batters in their projected lineup with a strikeout rate of at least 20% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Velasquez is viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but draw one of the worst matchups of the early slate. In addition to having a 28% strikeout rate, Vince Velasquez has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate. Outside of a Charlie Blackmon one-off in tournaments, I will continue to avoid the Rockies.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.356	0.364	0.121	33.3%	6.0%	15.0%	52.9%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,600
2	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.371	0.258	0.275	36.3%	12.3%	21.1%	43.4%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,200	CF	$10,300
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.359	0.334	0.193	36.8%	11.7%	21.6%	40.4%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,900	3B	$9,300
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.317	0.359	0.221	32.5%	7.0%	22.8%	38.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,500
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.358	0.401	0.213	44.5%	8.4%	27.4%	34.2%	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,600	SS	$8,900
6	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.327	0.312	0.101	36.2%	5.4%	15.0%	43.8%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,400
7	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.301	0.402	0.167	29.0%	7.8%	26.5%	66.4%	1B	$3,100	1B/OF	$3,700	LF	$7,500
8	Tony Wolters	LEFT	0.266	0.264	0.092	17.5%	12.2%	15.6%	60.3%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,500
9	German Marquez	RIGHT	0.195	0.204	0.000	7.7%	0.0%	23.5%	58.3%	P	$7,700	P	$5,300	P	$10,100
	Team Averages		0.317	0.322	0.154	30.4%	7.9%	20.9%	48.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

The Phillies have struggled offensively over the last few weeks and draw a mediocre matchup against German Marquez. While he does give up a lot of hard contact, he has managed to hold both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA this season. Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, and Nick Williams all boast at least a .380 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season, but I see them as secondary plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.335	0.329	0.161	25.8%	13.8%	23.2%	43.1%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,200
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.382	0.320	0.201	33.3%	12.8%	29.3%	31.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,500
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.317	0.197	0.148	25.8%	8.9%	19.4%	43.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.394	0.299	0.242	36.2%	18.2%	13.9%	36.5%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,200
5	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.297	0.291	0.106	26.6%	5.8%	22.1%	40.2%	SS	$2,700	3B/SS	$3,300	SS	$6,700
6	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.382	0.327	0.243	29.6%	8.1%	24.4%	46.9%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,700
7	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.277	0.315	0.142	30.8%	3.3%	40.0%	52.3%	C	$2,300	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
8	J.P. Crawford	LEFT	0.286	0.371	0.134	23.4%	4.1%	28.4%	42.2%	SS	$2,200	3B/SS	$3,200	SS	$6,800
9	Vince Velasquez	RIGHT	0.216	0.317	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	33.3%	87.5%	P	$8,600	P	$7,100	P	$13,600
	Team Averages		0.321	0.307	0.153	27.9%	8.3%	26.0%	47.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Nick Williams

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Minnesota at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Detroit
			Lance Lynn							Michael Fulmer
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIN-115							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.373	0.394	45.6%	14.8%	15.7%	59.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.322	0.367	37.3%	8.4%	19.8%	45.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.325	0.315	37.4%	13.8%	26.4%	43.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.328	41.2%	9.2%	20.6%	51.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Lance Lynn
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,900
	Salary Rank:		9 of 18	Salary Rank:		8 of 18	Salary Rank:		7 of 18
	2017	33	4.85	3.43	19.7%	10.1%	44.0%	29.2%	21.1%
	2018	12	4.79	5.08	22.0%	14.2%	50.6%	41.0%	19.7%
	L14	2	4.62	1.50	24.5%	14.3%	48.3%	41.4%	17.2%

Lynn has a decent strikeout rate, but that’s about all he has to offer this season. He has a SIERA close to five, a high walk rate, and a high hard contact rate. The Tigers are thought of as an exploitable matchup, but they have actually hit right-handed pitching fairly well this season. Their projected lineup has a .325 xwOBA against righties. The good news is that Lynn is facing a right-handed heavy lineup. The bad news is that he’s still Lynn.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lynn in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Michael Fulmer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$10,900
	Salary Rank:		10 of 18	Salary Rank:		16 of 18	Salary Rank:		14 of 18
	2017	25	4.48	3.83	16.9%	5.9%	49.2%	30.0%	18.1%
	2018	13	4.28	4.40	20.1%	8.8%	48.1%	39.1%	14.9%
	L14	3	4.80	5.51	16.4%	10.5%	51.0%	49.0%	14.3%

Fulmer has not been in the best of form in his last few starts. His recent struggles have hurt his season long numbers, as he now owns a 4.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%, a walk rate of 9%, and a hard contact rate of 39%. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Twins, whose projected lineup has a .331 xwOBA and a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Given the form and matchup, Fulmer is a deep tournament play at best.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Even though this game’s total is set at only 8.5 runs, we have two hittable pitchers on the mound that are both in bad form. On the season, Michael Fulmer has allowed a .367 xwOBA to lefties and a .328 xwOBA to righties. Brian Dozier is finally starting to heat up offensively, while Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, and Logan Morrison all boast a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.317	0.296	0.186	37.7%	9.0%	18.5%	41.5%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,700
2	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.353	0.372	0.254	40.4%	7.3%	16.2%	30.3%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,000	LF	$9,900
3	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.383	0.468	0.323	42.7%	5.1%	23.4%	21.8%	3B	$3,900	3B/SS	$4,400	SS	$8,100
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.357	0.365	0.189	38.4%	12.1%	18.8%	33.3%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,100	1B	$5,700
5	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.327	0.328	0.108	37.9%	12.4%	20.2%	32.2%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,400
6	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.296	0.238	0.241	46.7%	6.9%	41.4%	41.7%	3B	$3,700	1B/3B	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,400
7	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.344	0.279	0.145	40.8%	13.1%	12.6%	40.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,500
8	Mitch Garver	RIGHT	0.303	0.322	0.138	40.0%	7.9%	28.1%	43.6%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,600
9	Ryan LaMarre	RIGHT	0.301	0.255	0.074	41.2%	8.3%	33.3%	39.4%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,500
	Team Averages		0.331	0.325	0.184	40.6%	9.1%	23.6%	36.1%

Elite Plays – Eduardo Escobar, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers draw an exploitable matchup against Lance Lynn, who has allowed a .394 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this season. He has been tough on righties throughout his career, which limits the appeal of a Tigers’ stack. Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario, and Victor Martinez all bat from the left side and all have decent numbers against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.425	0.386	0.222	41.5%	9.7%	20.0%	35.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,400
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.371	0.329	0.174	49.0%	3.4%	23.4%	33.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,400
3	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.320	0.321	0.220	33.6%	10.5%	25.1%	38.3%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,800
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.358	0.324	0.097	45.4%	9.2%	10.4%	36.9%	C	$2,200	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,400
5	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.282	0.187	0.150	46.6%	2.7%	30.9%	40.8%	C	$2,400	1B/C	$2,900	C	$5,700
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.286	0.287	0.072	34.6%	6.6%	19.9%	38.2%	C	$2,200	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
7	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.312	0.248	0.167	31.8%	3.1%	26.1%	41.3%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000	IF/OF	$5,500
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.273	0.312	0.101	25.3%	4.7%	11.5%	45.8%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,500
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.300	0.247	0.073	32.2%	6.7%	18.4%	45.5%	2B	$2,200	2B	$3,000	SS	$6,000
	Team Averages		0.325	0.293	0.142	37.8%	6.3%	20.6%	39.5%

Elite Plays – Leonys Martin

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario, Victor Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Chicago White Sox
			Mike Clevinger							Carlos Rodon
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-125							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.286	0.329	32.4%	10.2%	18.5%	45.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.452	0.475	40.0%	12.5%	25.0%	80.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	0.292	33.3%	7.1%	22.0%	42.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.316	0.327	36.4%	5.9%	29.4%	63.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Clevinger
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$9,700	Salary:		$18,400
	Salary Rank:		3 of 18	Salary Rank:		3 of 18	Salary Rank:		3 of 18
	2017	21	4.24	3.11	27.3%	12.0%	39.5%	34.2%	18.6%
	2018	13	4.35	3.31	20.4%	8.6%	43.8%	32.9%	16.3%
	L14	3	4.97	3.26	18.8%	10.0%	32.7%	38.6%	17.5%

Clevinger has improved his control this season, but with fewer pitches outside of the strikezone, it has led to a lower strikeout rate. In 13 starts, he has a 4.35 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 20%. He doesn’t induce a lot of soft or medium contact and has been by all accounts an average pitcher this season. Many will be quick to jump on a matchup against the White Sox, but they have five hitters in their projected lineup with at least a .350 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Clevinger makes a great fade in the early slate, especially if he’s going to be highly owned.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Carlos Rodon
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:		14 of 18	Salary Rank:		12 of 18	Salary Rank:		11 of 18
	2017	12	4.21	4.15	25.6%	10.4%	44.1%	32.1%	12.8%
	2018	1	2.94	3.60	28.0%	8.0%	68.8%	37.5%	0.0%
	L14	1	2.94	3.60	28.0%	8.0%	68.8%	37.5%	0.0%

Rodon pitched fairly well in his season debut, striking out seven batters in five innings of work. Most notably, he threw 97 pitches so we shouldn’t expect him to be on a pitch count today against the Indians. Even though a matchup against the Indians looks awful on paper, we have an opportunity to target a talented, high-strikeout pitcher at a very low price point.

Quick Breakdown: Rodon is not recommended in a cash game setting, but he’s a viable tournament play.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians have one of the highest implied run totals of the slate, but are facing a talented pitcher in Carlos Rodon. If making multiple tournament lineups, it’s not the worst idea to get exposure to both sides of this matchup. The Indians have plenty of firepower in their lineup, as Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Guyer, and Yan Gomes all bat from the right side and all boast a .380+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.387	0.388	0.188	44.3%	10.9%	12.0%	50.7%	SS	$5,000	SS	$5,200	SS	$10,100
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.371	0.425	0.164	27.4%	4.2%	7.0%	48.4%	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,600	LF	$9,300
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.382	0.425	0.243	40.9%	7.5%	10.0%	38.5%	3B	$5,200	3B	$5,300	IF/OF	$9,700
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.380	0.465	0.175	45.0%	10.9%	26.6%	25.0%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,900	1B	$9,000
5	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.387		0.271	33.3%	12.5%	16.1%	35.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,700
6	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.385	0.316	0.208	50.0%	6.9%	32.8%	23.5%	C	$2,700	C	$3,400	C	$6,300
7	Erik Gonzalez	RIGHT	0.346	0.303	0.227	41.2%	8.3%	20.8%	58.8%	2B	$2,500	2B/3B	$3,300	2B	$6,600
8	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.330	0.377	0.000	39.0%	7.7%	13.5%	43.9%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,400
9	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.286	0.306	0.000	38.5%	0.0%	31.6%	36.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,700
	Team Averages		0.362	0.376	0.164	40.0%	7.7%	18.9%	40.1%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Guyer, Yan Gomes

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox

As mentioned above, I see Michael Clevinger as bad chalk in this slate. His numbers are down significantly this season and the White Sox have some good hitters in their lineup. Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu, Daniel Palka, and Matt Davidson all own a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. This probably isn’t the best spot to stack Chicago, but these five batters are viable one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.380	0.255	0.212	42.7%	9.8%	34.2%	31.4%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,500
2	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.350	0.378	0.174	29.4%	3.2%	14.2%	46.3%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,500	2B	$6,500
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.399	0.267	0.209	36.9%	6.6%	17.1%	39.5%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,000
4	Daniel Palka	LEFT	0.357	0.326	0.248	42.5%	1.9%	29.9%	41.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,500
5	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.391	0.203	0.220	43.8%	14.8%	34.9%	37.0%	3B	$2,700	1B/3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
6	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.299	0.301	0.075	29.0%	10.1%	20.2%	40.3%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700	C	$5,800
7	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.287	0.263	0.184	26.1%	8.3%	27.2%	44.7%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,700
8	Charlie Tilson	LEFT	0.208	0.221	0.027	13.9%	2.5%	7.5%	57.6%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,900
9	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.257	0.289	0.100	22.1%	8.0%	28.8%	42.5%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,800
	Team Averages		0.325	0.278	0.161	31.8%	7.2%	23.8%	42.3%

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada

Secondary Plays – Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu, Daniel Palka, Matt Davidson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Houston at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Houston								Oakland
			Justin Verlander							Frankie Montas
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-155							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.208	0.206	25.6%	7.9%	35.4%	31.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.195	0.222	28.6%	2.3%	16.3%	35.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.215	0.250	27.2%	3.7%	29.3%	27.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.277	0.291	55.2%	5.0%	17.5%	48.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Justin Verlander
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,400	Salary:		$13,100	Salary:		$25,800
	Salary Rank:		1 of 18	Salary Rank:		1 of 18	Salary Rank:		1 of 18
	2017	33	4.05	3.36	25.8%	8.5%	33.5%	34.5%	17.5%
	2018	14	2.98	1.45	32.1%	5.7%	28.9%	26.5%	21.4%
	L14	2	3.56	3.75	30.6%	10.2%	25.9%	44.8%	6.9%

Unfortunately, this game isn’t featured in the early slate on FanDuel, but it is featured in the early slate on DraftKings. This means that on both sites, we’ll have to roster one of the pitching options discussed above. Verlander is having a tremendous season thus far, posting a 2.98 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32%. The A’s have hit right-handed pitching well this season, but they also have seven hitters in their projected lineup with at least a 20% strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: Verlander is an elite play in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Frankie Montas
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$14,700
	Salary Rank:		6 of 18	Salary Rank:		6 of 18	Salary Rank:		6 of 18
	2017	0	4.51	7.03	23.7%	13.2%	35.5%	33.3%	17.2%
	2018	3	4.19	1.25	16.9%	3.6%	41.3%	40.6%	10.9%
	L14	2	4.48	1.15	11.7%	1.7%	44.0%	46.0%	14.0%

Montas has been serviceable in his first three major league starts, posting a 4.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17%. There will be times when we can target him with confidence, but this isn’t one of them. He draws an awful matchup against the Astros, whose projected lineup has a .335 xwOBA and a 17% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Montas in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but are facing an inexperienced pitcher in Frankie Montas. They proved last night that they don’t need a hitter’s park to rack up a bunch of runs. The only issue is that this game isn’t included in the early slate on FanDuel, so the Astros’ hitters will be competing against the other eight games on the schedule. George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Jose Altuve all boast a .370+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.360	0.336	0.181	35.1%	9.3%	16.7%	49.3%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,100	RF	$9,100
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.407	0.409	0.169	39.2%	13.8%	14.3%	39.9%	3B	$4,300	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,300
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.372	0.381	0.149	36.5%	7.1%	13.7%	46.3%	2B	$4,200	2B	$4,900	2B	$9,300
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.334	0.187	0.218	27.7%	9.5%	26.5%	46.2%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,500	SS	$9,100
5	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.278	0.305	0.101	31.8%	3.4%	10.8%	55.6%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,200
6	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.329	0.211	0.150	31.7%	15.8%	18.3%	35.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,700
7	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.310	0.399	0.173	37.7%	8.1%	27.6%	36.4%	C	$3,100	C	$3,800	C	$7,200
8	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.289	0.238	0.132	24.3%	7.9%	17.8%	21.6%	C	$2,100	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
9	Tony Kemp	LEFT	0.340	0.275	0.104	28.9%	8.9%	8.9%	37.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,300
	Team Averages		0.335	0.305	0.153	32.5%	9.3%	17.2%	40.9%

Elite Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, Josh Reddick

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Oakland

The A’s have one of the worst matchups on the schedule tonight. Even though they have hit right-handed pitching well this season, we shouldn’t go out of our way to target hitters against Justin Verlander. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .250 xwOBA and under a 28% hard contact rate this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dustin Fowler	LEFT	0.359	0.366	0.214	47.5%	6.6%	14.5%	45.8%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,300
2	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.310	0.309	0.086	27.9%	7.8%	20.1%	45.6%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,900
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.349	0.297	0.210	36.7%	11.1%	21.6%	36.7%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,400
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.441	0.454	0.309	51.3%	6.7%	24.6%	35.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,700
5	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.412	0.495	0.255	56.1%	10.9%	29.5%	33.6%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
6	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.383	0.402	0.198	45.6%	12.1%	23.7%	40.3%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,300
7	Mark Canha	RIGHT	0.317	0.328	0.118	42.7%	9.6%	24.0%	41.2%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,100	IF/OF	$5,700
8	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.348	0.352	0.129	44.6%	6.0%	20.5%	44.5%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,800	RF	$5,400
9	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.296	0.252	0.113	43.3%	5.2%	15.7%	47.6%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.357	0.362	0.181	44.0%	8.4%	21.6%	41.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 14th

Jump to Page 1 2

Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

San Francisco at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Colorado at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Minnesota at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Houston at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author