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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-30 00:27:19

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Texas at Cleveland – 12:10 PM ET

Texas Cleveland
texasmlb Andrew Cashner clevelandmlb Corey Kluber
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-270 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.360 0.374 37.5% 11.7% 16.0% 38.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.286 0.288 29.2% 7.2% 25.2% 45.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.337 0.324 30.1% 9.0% 16.8% 56.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.260 0.267 28.4% 6.1% 30.4% 45.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Cashner
andrew-cashner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 23 of 26 Salary Rank: 23 of 26 Salary Rank: of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 27 4.72 5.25 19.1% 10.2% 46.5% 35.8% 12.5%
2017 12 5.77 3.50 11.2% 10.5% 49.8% 30.0% 18.3%

It’s only a matter of time before Cashner’s high walk rate and inability to get left-handed hitters out catches up to him. His SIERA is more than two full runs higher than his ERA, which is a huge red flag. Don’t fall for the trap, just continue to avoid Cashner and load up the hitters from the opposing offense. The Indians are huge favorites in this one and hit right-handed pitching well as a team, ranking inside the top eight in team wOBA and strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cashner in all formats.

Corey Kluber
corey-kluber-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,200 Salary: $12,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 26 Salary Rank: 2 of 26 Salary Rank: of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.50 3.14 26.4% 6.6% 44.5% 27.6% 19.9%
2017 11 3.00 3.24 32.4% 6.6% 48.3% 32.8% 21.3%

We have an interesting schedule today, as there are five early games and eight late games. FanDuel has only included the first three in their early-only slate, while DraftKings has all five included in theirs. Regardless of what slate or what site you are playing on, Kluber is the top pitching option outside of Clayton Kershaw (who plays in the late slate). Kluber has at least ten strikeouts in four of his last five starts and has raised his k-rate up to 32% on the season. The Rangers aren’t the best matchup in the world, but Kluber comes into the game as a -270 favorite at home.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers have one of the worst matchups in the slate. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, Corey Kluber has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate over the last two seasons. Even in the early only slate, the Rangers are an offense that we should avoid completely.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.289 0.244 0.091 21.1% 7.5% 26.8% 55.1% OF $2,300 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
2 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.343 0.386 0.172 41.3% 13.3% 21.5% 47.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.337 0.318 0.136 27.6% 7.9% 13.8% 47.8% SS $2,700 SS $3,900 N/A N/A
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.359 0.366 0.208 34.6% 6.5% 10.6% 40.0% 3B $3,000 3B $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.339 0.338 0.189 31.6% 8.1% 18.8% 43.6% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
6 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.321 0.329 0.233 35.0% 9.9% 30.1% 36.4% 1B $2,400 1B $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.326 0.296 0.239 35.1% 3.1% 22.4% 39.6% 2B $2,600 2B $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.349 0.332 0.286 39.3% 7.7% 25.0% 38.7% C $2,200 C $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.312 0.307 0.286 41.8% 12.0% 39.9% 26.4% 1B $2,500 1B/3B $3,400 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians are my favorite offense on the board today and that includes the eight games being played this evening. Andrew Cashner walk rate (10%) is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (11%) and he has allowed a massive .374 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Cleveland will likely roll out seven lefties in their lineup, which doesn’t bode well for Cashner. We can stack the Indians in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.341 0.344 0.193 37.5% 9.2% 19.7% 37.0% 2B $3,100 2B $4,000 N/A N/A
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.341 0.342 0.167 27.2% 8.9% 12.2% 46.1% SS $3,600 SS $4,400 N/A N/A
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.337 0.348 0.138 40.0% 9.6% 14.0% 51.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.367 0.382 0.260 38.0% 11.0% 20.7% 38.0% 1B $3,600 1B $4,800 N/A N/A
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.373 0.343 0.187 28.8% 7.5% 9.6% 38.4% 3B $4,100 2B/3B $5,300 N/A N/A
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.347 0.313 0.192 29.5% 5.6% 16.1% 33.9% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
7 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.371 0.398 0.256 37.1% 15.4% 17.0% 35.6% 1B $3,400 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
8 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.386 0.368 0.234 34.0% 11.5% 27.6% 40.0% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
9 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.219 0.259 0.131 28.6% 4.8% 27.1% 38.8% C $2,400 C $2,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall, Carlos Santana

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Bradley Zimmer

Stackability – GREEN

Kansas City at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Kansas City Detroit
kansascitymlb Jake Junis detroitmlb Michael Fulmer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-175 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.359 0.356 43.5% 9.7% 12.9% 54.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.271 0.307 29.9% 7.5% 19.1% 48.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.391 0.379 44.9% 9.6% 20.6% 22.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.289 0.280 27.7% 5.3% 20.4% 51.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Junis
jakob-junis-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 23 of 26 Salary Rank: 18 of 26 Salary Rank: 17 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 5 5.20 4.97 17.0% 9.6% 38.0% 44.2% 15.8%

Junis hasn’t quite adapted to the pace of the major leagues just yet, but there is a lot of promise here. In his seven minor league starts this season before being called up, he posted a 2.52 FIP with a 35% strikeout rate. He’s a pitcher to keep an eye on moving forward. As for today, he is an easy fade in a matchup against the Tigers on the road. The first seven projected starters in the Tigers’ lineup all have a .325+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: In a matchup against the Tigers, the risk outweighs the upside.

Michael Fulmer
michael-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $18,000
Salary Rank: 4 of 26 Salary Rank: 5 of 26 Salary Rank: 4 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.03 3.06 20.4% 6.5% 49.1% 30.4% 19.2%
2017 14 4.29 3.29 18.6% 6.3% 50.0% 26.2% 16.6%

Fulmer has struggled with his form a bit lately, but he bounced back with a nice outing against the Padres. He draws another exploitable matchup today against the Royals, who are ranked 26th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Fulmer’s upside may not be as high as a few other pitchers in the slate, but he is a massive favorite, he’s pitching at home, and he is facing an offense with little to no firepower. If you are looking for a safe SP2 in cash games, Fulmer fits the bill.

Quick Breakdown: Fulmer is an elite SP2 in the early-only slate.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals struggle against right-handed pitching and draw a difficult matchup against Michael Fulmer, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate over the last two seasons. Mike Moustakas is the only batter on my radar here. He makes an intriguing one-off target, as he does boast a .362 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.300 0.293 0.124 31.9% 4.8% 18.1% 41.8% 2B $2,900 2B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
2 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.344 0.350 0.216 33.0% 9.6% 23.7% 37.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.326 0.314 0.126 30.5% 7.6% 20.9% 47.6% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.353 0.358 0.175 34.8% 9.6% 18.7% 56.2% 1B $3,100 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.323 0.309 0.204 37.6% 3.3% 20.6% 33.8% C $2,900 C $3,800 C $7,500
6 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.356 0.362 0.271 35.3% 6.7% 15.7% 35.3% 3B $3,200 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
7 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.310 0.328 0.263 38.3% 9.7% 31.1% 26.4% 1B $2,100 OF $2,400 IF/OF $4,800
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.261 0.249 0.080 22.7% 3.2% 16.5% 46.2% SS $2,200 SS $2,700 SS $5,200
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.290 0.321 0.149 35.6% 10.0% 26.6% 39.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,700 LF $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas

Stackability – RED

Detroit

The Tigers draw a boom or bust type of matchup against rookie Jake Junis. He has shown good upside in the minors, but hasn’t been quite as sharp in his first five major league starts. More often than not, young pitchers tend to struggle when getting called up to the big leagues for the first time. A Tigers’ stack is certainly viable here and Miguel Cabrera remains underpriced on DraftKings ($3,800).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.341 0.327 0.174 35.0% 7.3% 15.4% 33.3% 2B $3,300 2B $4,500 2B $8,700
2 Alex Avila LEFT 0.387 0.405 0.231 49.4% 17.3% 33.5% 38.6% C $2,900 1B/C $4,000 C $7,600
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.339 0.349 0.229 39.7% 9.2% 28.5% 37.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.381 0.447 0.239 42.0% 10.3% 17.1% 41.4% 1B $3,800 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.375 0.399 0.244 42.3% 10.5% 26.4% 42.9% OF $4,000 OF $4,800 RF $9,200
6 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.337 0.386 0.174 41.4% 8.7% 14.4% 37.6% 1B $2,900 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
7 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.345 0.378 0.185 40.3% 7.0% 25.1% 35.5% 3B $2,900 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
8 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.223 0.231 0.092 35.7% 4.6% 38.3% 41.7% OF $2,500 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.267 0.255 0.071 19.2% 4.6% 12.7% 55.7% SS $2,200 SS $2,400 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – Alex Avila, Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Oakland at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Oakland Houston
oaklandmlb Daniel Gossett houstonmlb Brad Peacock
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-190 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 0.263 27.3% 0.0% 15.4% 66.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.295 34.2% 13.8% 29.0% 36.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.382 44.1% 4.6% 18.2% 38.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.255 0.249 26.0% 10.8% 31.1% 47.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Daniel Gossett
daniel-gossett-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 21 of 26 Salary Rank: 21 of 26 Salary Rank: 19 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 3 4.08 4.50 17.1% 2.9% 49.1% 37.5% 19.6%

Gossett was never a top pitching prospect, but he has improved at every single level of baseball and is now looking to make a name for himself in the majors. His first three starts have been decent compared to most young pitchers. He owns a 4.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17% and a walk rate of 3%. We would like to see the strikeouts come up, but at least the control has been there. He’s worth keeping an eye on moving forward, but is an easy fade against an Astros’ offense that is ranked first in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Gossett draws the worst matchup in the entire slate.

Brad Peacock
brad-peacock-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $9,700 Salary: $18,800
Salary Rank: 13 of 26 Salary Rank: 4 of 26 Salary Rank: 3 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.55 3.69 22.1% 11.0% 41.2% 28.2% 10.6%
2017 6 3.39 2.82 35.7% 13.0% 44.1% 31.2% 25.8%

Peacock has really pitched well this season, posting a 3.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 36%. The fact that he’s been able to sustain this type of success as a starter is the most impressive part, as pitchers usually struggle to make the transition from the bullpen to being a starter. He draws a favorable matchup today against the A’s, who have the third highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Peacock is viable as an SP1 in tournaments and as an SP2 in cash games.

Quick Breakdown: Peacock is proving that he deserves another shot as a starter. He’s an elite option today against the A’s.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s draw a difficult matchup against Brad Peacock today in a somewhat pitcher-friendly ballpark. Peacock is a completely different pitcher than he was a few years ago and we are starting to see the type of results that he can produce when he’s pitching with confidence. I’m not interested in the A’s offense as a whole, but Matt Olson is still dirt cheap across the industry. I will continue playing him in all formats at this price. Khris Davis also has some appeal as a one-off target, as he is typically under-owned and has good power numbers against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.359 0.372 0.226 36.9% 17.8% 22.2% 39.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
2 Matt Olson LEFT 0.358 0.352 0.222 26.9% 26.0% 20.0% 38.5% OF $2,300 OF $2,600 LF $5,100
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.322 0.327 0.134 32.2% 8.9% 16.6% 35.4% 2B $2,800 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.353 0.366 0.278 39.9% 7.3% 29.2% 42.9% OF $3,600 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.336 0.363 0.165 34.1% 10.4% 16.7% 38.7% 1B $3,100 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.333 0.330 0.211 35.2% 4.1% 25.6% 41.1% 3B $3,300 1B/3B $3,400 3B $6,800
7 Bruce Maxwell LEFT 0.357 0.353 0.110 41.0% 10.6% 20.4% 53.8% C $2,600 C $2,700 C $5,200
8 Franklin Barreto RIGHT 0.533 0.478 0.429 50.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 2B $2,100 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Jaycob Brugman LEFT 0.296 0.269 0.061 18.4% 13.8% 20.7% 52.6% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 CF $5,400

Elite Plays – Matt Olson

Secondary Plays – Khris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

I couldn’t have been more wrong about the Astros yesterday. I avoided the right-handed hitters against Jesse Hahn because he had been tough on righties and had a high ground ball rate. Apparently, it doesn’t matter who the opposing pitcher is, when the Astros are facing a righty, we should load up on their hitters. They are ranked first in team wOBA and strikeout rate and today they get to face a rookie pitcher in Daniel Gossett that is only making his fourth career major league start. The one through five batters are all borderline elite plays and we can stack Houston in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.341 0.340 0.187 32.6% 10.3% 24.4% 49.7% OF $4,300 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
2 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.370 0.355 0.188 32.6% 9.2% 11.5% 37.0% OF $3,100 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.393 0.368 0.197 31.1% 7.9% 9.9% 44.2% 2B $3,900 2B $5,100 2B $9,900
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.366 0.369 0.200 37.1% 10.8% 21.2% 49.4% SS $4,100 SS $5,200 SS $10,200
5 Brian McCann LEFT 0.329 0.344 0.174 37.1% 10.3% 18.3% 35.6% C $2,900 C $3,700 C $7,200
6 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.332 0.309 0.209 33.1% 6.3% 17.8% 46.3% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
7 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.347 0.316 0.179 31.8% 2.8% 11.7% 42.7% 1B $3,300 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
8 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.317 0.322 0.183 31.3% 7.3% 20.3% 35.5% 3B $2,900 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.284 0.264 0.173 26.4% 4.9% 30.0% 46.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 CF $6,400

Elite Plays – George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran

Stackability – GREEN

St. Louis at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

St. Louis Arizona
stlouismlb Lance Lynn arizonamlb Patrick Corbin
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-120 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.356 0.344 30.7% 14.1% 18.2% 44.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.309 35.6% 8.8% 28.9% 56.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.269 0.287 28.6% 6.0% 26.1% 42.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.366 0.351 37.5% 8.2% 15.9% 52.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance Lynn
lance-lynn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 20 of 26 Salary Rank: 17 of 26 Salary Rank: 16 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 4.52 3.86 22.3% 9.9% 43.5% 29.6% 19.7%

Lynn has been a little lucky when it comes to batted balls this season (.219 BABIP), but he has a 23% strikeout rate and has managed to limit the hard contact against him. After Adam Wainwright pitched well against the Diamondbacks last night, people may be hesitant to go back to Arizona’s offense. I don’t play pitchers in this ballpark that aren’t named Zack Greinke or Robbie Ray and I’m not going to make an exception for Lynn, who could have some regression coming his way shortly.

Quick Breakdown: This is a tough spot for Lynn. He has to face a talented Diamondbacks’ offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Patrick Corbin
patrick-corbin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 15 of 26 Salary Rank: 11 of 26 Salary Rank: 10 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.38 5.15 18.7% 9.4% 53.8% 38.5% 15.2%
2017 15 4.27 4.89 18.8% 6.3% 51.2% 34.7% 15.8%

Corbin is a tough sell every time he takes the mound. While he does have an above-average strikeout rate, he has a low strikeout rate, a mediocre walk rate, and he allows a lot of hard contact. He also has to make half of his starts in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the National League. The Cardinals have struggled against left-handed pitching this season, but could roll out eight right-handed hitters against Corbin today.

Quick Breakdown: I will be fading both of these pitchers in a game that features an over/under of 10.0 runs.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals have struggled against southpaws as a whole, but their numbers individually aren’t bad at all. If you look at the table below, you will see a lot of blue and green boxes. They see a nice ballpark shift playing in Chase Field and they draw a favorable matchup against Patrick Corbin, who has allowed a .351 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. The Cardinals’ offense is sneaky today and I don’t expect them to be popular, even though they are playing in a great ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.330 0.363 0.165 33.1% 13.7% 20.3% 34.9% 1B $4,000 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.338 0.310 0.214 31.0% 13.0% 36.5% 43.9% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
3 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.381 0.360 0.223 30.5% 13.0% 16.4% 38.6% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.328 0.334 0.189 32.5% 8.6% 17.7% 35.1% 3B $3,400 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.340 0.354 0.147 32.7% 6.5% 11.9% 45.3% C $2,800 C $3,600 C $7,200
6 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.314 0.322 0.212 37.3% 9.8% 26.4% 31.8% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 LF $7,800
7 Louis Voit RIGHT N/A N/A
8 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.466 0.326 0.308 33.3% 7.1% 28.6% 22.2% 2B $2,800 2B $4,300 3B $8,400
9 Lance Lynn RIGHT 0.236 0.239 0.000 0.0% 14.3% 28.6% 100.0% P $6,700 P $6,200 P $12,300

Elite Plays – Tommy Pham, Stephen Piscotty, Jedd Gyorko

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Arizona

The Diamondbacks’ matchup against Lance Lynn may not look great on paper, but he has struggled with left-handed hitters throughout his career. The sample size is small this season (15 starts), but Lynn has allowed a .344 xwOBA to lefties, which brings Gregor Blanco, David Peralta, and Jake Lamb into play. Paul Goldschmidt is a great way to complete the one through four Diamondbacks’ stack, as he owns a .378 xwOBA against right-handed pitching. Chris Herrmann will make for a good value play at catcher if he cracks the lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.297 0.278 0.100 25.1% 11.7% 21.1% 45.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
2 David Peralta LEFT 0.344 0.317 0.158 36.5% 6.2% 17.2% 54.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 RF $9,300
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.394 0.385 0.225 39.8% 13.8% 20.9% 44.9% 1B $4,500 1B $5,600 1B $10,800
4 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.392 0.378 0.289 40.9% 11.7% 23.9% 42.5% 3B $3,700 3B $5,000 3B $9,600
5 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.312 0.292 0.148 31.9% 4.3% 20.4% 48.0% SS $3,200 OF/SS $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.348 0.316 0.179 33.2% 6.7% 20.4% 49.5% 2B $2,300 2B $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
7 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.336 0.326 0.168 32.1% 11.8% 19.0% 44.1% 2B $3,300 2B/OF $3,600 2B $7,200
8 Chris Herrmann LEFT 0.326 0.337 0.220 44.0% 10.6% 25.6% 40.6% C $2,700 C/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
9 Patrick Corbin LEFT 0.246 0.204 0.052 12.5% 6.3% 31.3% 63.9% P $7,500 P $7,400 P $14,800

Elite Plays – Gregor Blanco, David Peralta, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Owings, Chris Herrmann

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Washington
cubsmlb Jon Lester washingtonmlb Joe Ross
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.235 0.260 29.1% 3.7% 28.8% 54.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.368 0.351 34.2% 7.7% 19.0% 38.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 0.286 25.8% 7.8% 23.4% 45.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.294 29.2% 4.2% 22.5% 42.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 4 of 26 Salary Rank: 8 of 26 Salary Rank: 7 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.61 2.44 24.8% 6.5% 46.9% 26.8% 18.9%
2017 16 3.90 3.83 24.4% 7.6% 48.3% 26.0% 21.9%

Lester is having another solid season for the Cubs. In fact, he’s one of the only players on this roster that seems to be carrying his weight this year. In 16 starts, he owns a 3.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. He has a decent track record against the Nationals in his career, but there are enough pitching options available that he is an easy fade in the early-only slate. On the season, Washington has the fourth highest team wOBA against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Lester has the talent to pitch well here, but this is an awful matchup and he is pitching on the road.

Joe Ross
joseph-ross-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 11 of 26 Salary Rank: 12 of 26 Salary Rank: 11 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.06 3.43 20.8% 6.5% 42.6% 29.5% 16.3%
2017 10 4.15 5.40 20.8% 4.8% 37.1% 35.3% 21.7%

Ross has been all over the map in his ten starts this season. His numbers as a whole aren’t bad, as he currently owns a 4.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate under 5%. The best time to target Ross is when he is pitching at home against a right-handed heavy lineup. He obviously gets to pitch at home today, but the Cubs will likely have four or five lefties in their lineup. Ross is still a decent play for the price, but if possible, I’d rather spend up a bit more in order to afford Michael Fulmer or Brad Peacock.

Quick Breakdown: Given the talent of these two pitchers, the over/under being set at 9.0 runs is a bit alarming.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have struggled against right-handed pitching this season and a matchup against Joe Ross isn’t exactly ideal. However, this game has a high over/under and we know that Ross has struggled against lefties throughout his career. Over the last two seasons, Ross has allowed a .351 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. Joe Maddon is always mixing up his lineup, but any lefty batting in a decent spot in the lineup is worth a look today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.389 0.383 0.254 36.3% 12.8% 15.4% 36.5% 1B $4,100 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
2 Tommy La Stella LEFT 0.328 0.345 0.129 33.1% 11.6% 14.8% 39.0% 2B $2,200 2B/3B $2,700 3B $5,200
3 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.374 0.353 0.313 35.4% 10.6% 31.0% 45.3% 2B $3,500 2B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.334 0.308 0.192 33.5% 9.0% 27.7% 53.7% C $3,100 C $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.301 0.293 0.165 28.9% 7.3% 22.5% 43.3% SS $2,800 SS $3,800 SS $7,600
6 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.298 0.267 0.156 29.2% 2.1% 25.7% 44.9% 2B $2,600 2B/SS $3,800 2B $7,600
7 Jon Jay LEFT 0.317 0.298 0.102 29.4% 5.4% 21.5% 52.1% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 CF $5,400
8 Jon Lester LEFT 0.141 0.235 0.045 25.5% 5.1% 25.3% 63.0% P $9,600 P $8,000 P $15,600
9 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.276 0.254 0.095 27.8% 5.1% 20.2% 51.9% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 CF $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals’ matchup against Jon Lester looks tough on paper, but their implied run total is surprisingly high. They mash left-handed pitching as a whole and we know you can run on Lester whenever you want. Trea Turner has caused problems on the base paths all series and I expect that to continue if he gets on base again today. He’s the only elite play that I see here, but the right-handed bats of Ryan Raburn, Ryan Zimmerman, and Anthony Rendon are viable secondary options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.243 0.257 0.066 32.3% 2.4% 20.8% 48.9% SS $3,900 SS $5,100 IF/OF $9,900
2 Ryan Raburn RIGHT 0.337 0.296 0.207 35.3% 13.0% 23.9% 48.2% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 LF $6,400
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.327 0.307 0.190 30.9% 11.3% 28.3% 45.6% OF $4,300 OF $5,300 RF $10,400
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.346 0.387 0.268 40.0% 9.0% 14.1% 52.5% 1B $3,600 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.388 0.373 0.222 33.3% 5.9% 12.7% 35.5% 2B $3,700 2B $4,900 2B $9,600
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.414 0.385 0.243 38.3% 17.6% 14.2% 33.3% 3B $3,200 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.308 0.342 0.153 30.8% 8.7% 20.0% 38.3% C $2,600 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.348 0.317 0.195 35.4% 5.4% 33.8% 48.7% OF $3,500 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
9 Joe Ross RIGHT 0.341 0.300 0.059 28.6% 14.3% 19.0% 53.8% P $7,800 P $7,200 P $14,400

Elite Plays – Trea Turner

Secondary Plays – Ryan Raburn, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious