MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-01 02:57:16

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Texas at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Texas					NY Yankees
			A.J. Griffin					Michael Pineda
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -133					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.288	2	18.2%	10.4%	SP vs. Left	0.330	13	24.2%	4.9%
SP vs. Right	0.253	1	25.6%	9.0%	SP vs. Right	0.338	22	24.4%	3.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
A.J. Griffin
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,400
					FPPG:		30.4	FPPG:		16.2
					Pitcher Rating:		51.2	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	1	91.0	2.88	4.15	33.3%	5.6%	7.7%	27.3%	54.5%	18.2%
2016	7	92.6	4.43	3.08	21.9%	9.7%	8.3%	36.8%	44.3%	34.0%

Griffin has made seven starts this season, posting a 4.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.9%. He has pitched well thus far, but sports a career 4.25 SIERA. He checks into today’s game as an underdog on the road in a game that features an over/under of 9.0 runs. The Yankees aren’t a feared offense like they used to be, but they are certainly capable of putting up runs at home in this matchup.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Michael Pineda
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$7,800
					FPPG:		28.1	FPPG:		14.4
					Pitcher Rating:		73.6	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	6	94.2	2.95	4.28	28.4%	3.6%	13.8%	40.4%	33.0%	31.6%
2016	15	97.5	3.35	5.51	26.1%	5.4%	13.9%	43.5%	33.3%	30.7%
2015	27	94.4	3.09	4.37	23.4%	3.1%	11.9%	48.2%	29.9%	30.1%

Pineda’s indicators look a lot better than his actual earned run average. His SIERA is two full runs lower than his ERA. In fact, if you took ERA out of the picture, you would think that he was having an excellent season. He owns a 3.35 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.1% and a walk rate of 5.4%. He has been a little unlucky in terms of batted balls. He has a .359 BABIP, which is nearly 60 points above the major league average. I expect his results to improve the rest of the way, but I’m not a huge fan of his matchup today against the Rangers.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers are ranked at or above the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season. They come into today’s game with the seventh highest implied total of the 22 teams in action. Michael Pineda BABIP will likely come down as the season progresses, but he has now allowed a .330 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .338 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two years.

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.165 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.8% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.99 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.31 (7 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.384	0.197	0.346	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,500
2	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.311	0.163	0.502	OF	$3,300	OF	$5,000
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.357	0.189	0.264	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.311	0.141	0.368	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600
5	Prince Fielder	LEFT	0.354	0.155	0.408	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,400
6	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.325	0.212	0.341	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,100
7	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.465	0.242	0.443	2B	$2,900	1B/2B	$3,700
8	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.351	0.222	0.249	OF	$2,600	1B	$3,400
9	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.309	0.200	0.182	C	$2,300	C	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.352	0.191	0.345	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor

Stackability – Cash & GPP

NY Yankees

This series is like a daytime soap opera – it has been full of drama and tears have been shed on both sides. The Yankees completed an incredible comeback in the ninth inning yesterday, hitting two home runs including a game-tying homer by Brian McCann and a walk off homer by Didi Gregorious. They draw a favorable matchup today against A.J. Griffin and they get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.302 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.148 (22 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.9% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.16 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.69 (3 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.311	0.109	0.248	OF	$4,100	OF	$3,700
2	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.335	0.145	0.297	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,700
3	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.327	0.203	0.227	3B	$3,300	1B/3B	$3,400
4	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.325	0.205	0.452	C	$3,100	C	$3,600
5	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.349	0.274	0.460	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,100
6	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.301	0.108	0.358	3B	$2,900	3B	$2,800
7	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.303	0.125	0.395	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,500
8	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.290	0.128	0.190	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,700
9	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.320	0.116	0.691	2B	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.157	0.369	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Chase Headley, Didi Gregorious

Stackability – Cash & GPP

LA Dodgers at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Dodgers					Milwaukee
			Kenta Maeda					Zach Davies
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -127					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.274	4	20.5%	12.1%	SP vs. Left	0.298	5	20.9%	10.0%
SP vs. Right	0.267	4	27.1%	3.3%	SP vs. Right	0.296	6	19.2%	6.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Kenta Maeda
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$9,500
					FPPG:		33.1	FPPG:		18.0
					Pitcher Rating:		78.0	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	6	93.7	3.64	2.34	25.6%	8.0%	9.4%	46.7%	30.0%	36.3%
2016	15	92.5	3.83	2.91	23.9%	7.5%	11.5%	44.6%	35.9%	28.9%

The options are scarce, but Maeda has the highest pitcher rating in the early slate and he grades out as the fifth best pitcher in the all-day slate. He has had a nice rookie season after coming over from Japan, posting a 3.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.9% and a walk rate of 7.5%. He hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact and he draws a favorable matchup today against the strikeout happy Brewers. No team in baseball has a higher strikeout rate (26.1%) against right-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Zach Davies
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$8,000
					FPPG:		29.7	FPPG:		15.4
					Pitcher Rating:		60.2	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	5	99.8	3.03	1.64	28.8%	4.8%	9.0%	44.3%	36.7%	23.5%
2016	13	92.2	4.01	3.74	21.2%	6.8%	8.0%	45.8%	32.5%	33.6%
2015	6	89.8	4.34	3.71	17.3%	10.8%	10.0%	57.6%	21.2%	32.0%

I’m not exactly sure what happened, but Davies has had a Matt Shoemaker-like resurgence over the last month of play. In his last five starts, he has a 3.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.8% and a walk rate of 4.8%. Those numbers are a far cry from his statistics in his previous 14 starts. He doesn’t have overwhelming velocity, but his offspeed stuff has been great lately. I prefer Maeda over Davies in cash games, but am certainly fine targeting him in GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have a higher team total than I was originally expecting. As a team, they are ranked below the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching. They are also facing Zach Davies, who has been in excellent form over the last month of play. Over the last two seasons, Davies has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA.

Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.151 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.7% (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.13 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.16 (10 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.305	0.138	0.238	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,900
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.399	0.237	0.469	SS	$4,300	SS	$5,200
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.369	0.208	0.438	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,700
4	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.344	0.193	0.299	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,300
5	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.308	0.109	0.332	2B	$2,900	2B/OF	$3,400
6	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.302	0.139	0.349	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500
7	Trayce Thompson	RIGHT	0.347	0.212	0.201	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500
8	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.317	0.175	0.203	C	$2,800	C	$3,100
9	Kenta Maeda	RIGHT	0.153	0.158	0.293	P	$9,500	P	$9,500
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.174	0.314	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez

Stackability – GPP

Milwaukee

The Brewers will have their hands full today, as they square off against Kenta Maeda at home. The sample size is small (15 starts), but Maeda has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 wOBA. Even though the Brewers are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark, their high strikeout rate worries me in a matchup like this.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.154 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 26.1% (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.10 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.84 (18 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.334	0.120	0.333	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,800
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.308	0.132	0.358	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,900
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.357	0.206	0.497	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600
4	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.327	0.248	0.347	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,000
5	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.316	0.142	0.383	3B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,600
6	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.308	0.174	0.387	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500
7	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.240	0.061	0.461	C	$2,400	C	$2,000
8	Ramon Flores	LEFT	0.262	0.063	0.257	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,600
9	Zach Davies	RIGHT	0.049	0.000	0.000	P	$8,100	P	$8,000
	Team Averages	—	0.278	0.127	0.336	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun

Stackability – NONE

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Minnesota					Chicago White Sox
			Tommy Milone					Carlos Rodon
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CWS -159					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.283	5	19.8%	7.0%	SP vs. Left	0.245	1	25.6%	8.0%
SP vs. Right	0.334	17	15.8%	6.7%	SP vs. Right	0.352	21	22.0%	11.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tommy Milone
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$6,100
					FPPG:		15.5	FPPG:		7.4
					Pitcher Rating:		34.5	Pitcher Rank:		21
L30 Days	1	77.0	6.48	2.45	4.8%	9.5%	5.2%	41.2%	29.4%	38.9%
2016	5	99.8	4.49	5.33	16.8%	7.6%	7.8%	47.1%	29.9%	40.0%
2015	23	89.9	4.39	3.92	16.8%	6.6%	8.1%	41.6%	35.4%	26.0%

How bad is the Twins’ starting rotation? It doesn’t seem to matter who is on the mound for Minnesota these days, as their opponents routinely have some of the highest implied team totals on the board. In five starts this season, Milone has a 4.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.8%. He checks in as a sizable underdog on the road against the White Sox, whose offense has been clicking after a slow start to the season.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Carlos Rodon
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$8,500
					FPPG:		28.8	FPPG:		14.8
					Pitcher Rating:		69.1	Pitcher Rank:		8
L30 Days	5	103.4	3.92	3.41	24.4%	7.9%	10.8%	36.6%	43.9%	23.8%
2016	14	99.4	4.00	4.09	22.8%	8.1%	9.2%	45.0%	34.6%	24.5%
2015	23	106.1	4.20	3.75	22.9%	11.7%	10.1%	46.8%	29.8%	28.3%

Rodon hasn’t taken the next step that many predicted for him this season. His numbers aren’t awful, but they look nearly identical to a year ago. In 14 starts, he owns a 4.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.8%. The one improvement that he has made has been with his command. He is walking nearly 4% less batters this season. He draws an exploitable matchup tonight against the Twins, who are ranked 25th in team wOBA and 27th in team strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins may be sizable underdogs tonight, but they actually have a decent team total of 4.16 runs. Their matchup against Carlos Rodon may not be the best on the board, but he has allowed a .352 wOBA and 21 home runs to batters from the right side of the plate. Red-hot Brian Dozier remains an elite play in all league formats, while the rest of the Twins make more sense as secondary options.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.306 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.162 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.5% (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.05 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.16 (11 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.342	0.250	0.344	SS	$3,900	3B/SS	$4,000
2	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.331	0.200	0.364	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,200
3	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.351	0.169	0.232	OF	$3,100	OF	$2,900
4	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.346	0.216	0.555	2B	$3,500	2B	$5,100
5	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.330	0.175	0.349	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,400
6	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.296	0.114	0.514	C	$2,700	C	$2,900
7	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.201	0.061	0.390	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,900
8	Danny Santana	SWITCH	0.239	0.071	0.308	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,100
9	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.159	0.065	0.156	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,100
	Team Averages	—	0.288	0.147	0.357	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Robbie Grossman, Trevor Plouffe

Stackability – NONE

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox don’t have great numbers as a whole against left-handed pitching this season, but they have the second highest team total on the board. In his last 28 starts, Tommy Milone has allowed a .334 wOBA and 17 home runs to right-handed hitters. If you are playing in the early-only slate, I highly recommend loading up on White Sox in cash games.

White Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.316 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.147 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.4% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.17 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.84 (2 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.098	0.000	0.326	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,800
2	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.319	0.067	0.330	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,500
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.291	0.128	0.349	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,100
4	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.370	0.349	0.300	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,200
5	Brett Lawrie	RIGHT	0.349	0.192	0.407	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,400
6	Dioner Navarro	SWITCH	0.329	0.221	0.348	C	$2,700	C	$3,400
7	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.306	0.111	0.245	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,900
8	Matt Davidson	RIGHT
9	J.B. Shuck	LEFT	0.286	0.080	0.255	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.294	0.144	0.320	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Brett Lawrie

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Dioner Navarro, Avisail Garcia

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cincinnati					Washington
			Brandon Finnegan					Gio Gonzalez
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -191					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.335	4	14.4%	12.4%	SP vs. Left	0.269	1	18.0%	6.2%
SP vs. Right	0.303	16	20.3%	10.4%	SP vs. Right	0.325	16	23.9%	9.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Brandon Finnegan
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$6,700
					FPPG:		22.2	FPPG:		11.3
					Pitcher Rating:		36.1	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	6	102.2	5.11	3.62	17.7%	11.1%	10.8%	38.5%	39.4%	42.1%
2016	16	97.1	5.16	3.83	16.8%	11.0%	9.2%	40.4%	35.7%	36.1%
2015	4	187.8	3.77	3.56	22.8%	10.7%	9.7%	54.3%	29.1%	30.8%

Finnegan has not fared well this season, posting a 5.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.8%. His ERA is under 4.00, but we can expect some regression moving forward. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Nationals, who happen to be one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. As a major underdog on the road, Finnegan should be avoided in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Gio Gonzalez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$7,400
					FPPG:		28.1	FPPG:		14.5
					Pitcher Rating:		79.2	Pitcher Rank:		2
L30 Days	6	100.8	3.66	7.79	27.2%	9.9%	10.9%	46.6%	22.7%	29.7%
2016	15	99.3	3.81	4.73	23.3%	7.4%	9.7%	47.8%	31.0%	32.8%
2015	31	95.1	3.77	3.79	22.3%	9.1%	9.8%	53.8%	26.6%	28.7%

Gonzalez grades out as the second best pitching option overall today. That says more about the lack of viable pitchers on the slate than it does about Gonzalez’s fantasy appeal. He has been knocked around in his last few starts, but still owns a 3.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.3% on the season. He is one of the many pitchers with drastically better splits at home and I will be using that to my advantage tonight. At his price point, he is the best value at the pitcher position tonight and he is playable in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are ranked below the major league average in both team wOBA and team K% against left-handed pitching this season. Gio Gonzalez hasn’t been in the best of form recently, but they are facing him in the pitcher-friendly Nationals Park. Joey Votto and Eugenio Suarez both boast an ISO over .375 against southpaws, but they are better GPP plays than cash game targets.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.310 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.165 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.3% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.25 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.97 (14 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.365	0.263	0.326	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,600
2	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.388	0.179	0.371	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,400
3	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.305	0.172	0.343	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,400
4	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.318	0.108	0.215	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,000
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.328	0.194	0.351	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,200
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.378	0.234	0.324	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,900
7	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.260	0.082	0.361	C	$2,500	C	$2,300
8	Tyler Holt	RIGHT	0.268	0.000	0.000	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100
9	Brandon Finnegan	LEFT	0.174	0.000	0.345	P	$6,200	P	$6,700
	Team Averages	—	0.309	0.137	0.293	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – NONE

Washington

The Nationals have the highest ISO in baseball against left-handed pitching. They come into tonight’s game with the highest implied team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against Brandon Finnegan at home. Not only is Finnegan a fly-ball pitcher, but he has allowed a 36.1% hard hit contact rate. Finnegan has also allowed 20 home runs in his last 20 starts – four to left-handed hitters and 16 to right-handed hitters.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.342 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.204 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.8% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.58 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.03 (1 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.310	0.180	0.383	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,300
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.398	0.286	0.351	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,200
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.388	0.225	0.386	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,900
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.305	0.115	0.383	2B	$3,900	2B	$3,800
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.288	0.155	0.406	C	$3,800	C	$4,500
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.387	0.308	0.224	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200
7	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.352	0.096	0.325	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,900
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.335	0.214	0.420	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,900
9	Gio Gonzalez	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$8,500	P	$7,400
	Team Averages	—	0.307	0.175	0.320	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Michael Taylor, Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper, Wilson Ramos

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cleveland at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cleveland					Toronto
			Carlos Carrasco					R.A. Dickey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -119					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.286	14	26.5%	6.9%	SP vs. Left	0.312	21	13.2%	8.8%
SP vs. Right	0.285	13	29.0%	5.0%	SP vs. Right	0.319	21	16.4%	6.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Carlos Carrasco
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,100	Salary:		$10,800
					FPPG:		33.3	FPPG:		18.8
					Pitcher Rating:		79.1	Pitcher Rank:		4
L30 Days	5	99.6	3.58	2.91	21.2%	5.8%	12.3%	54.1%	23.5%	32.3%
2016	9	90.1	3.62	2.73	22.1%	5.9%	11.7%	51.6%	27.4%	34.6%
2015	30	92.6	2.74	3.63	29.6%	5.9%	14.0%	51.2%	29.8%	27.5%

Carrasco dealt with a hamstring injury earlier in the season, but now appears ready to hit his stride. In his last five starts, he has a 3.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.2% and a walk rate of only 5.8%. He has no problem generating swings and misses and he typically induces an elite ground ball rate as well. He will need both of those to succeed tonight against the Blue Jays, who are ranked sixth in team wOBA and fourth in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. The upside is there for Carrasco, but so is the risk.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
R.A. Dickey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$6,600
					FPPG:		24.1	FPPG:		11.8
					Pitcher Rating:		34.4	Pitcher Rank:		22
L30 Days	6	97.3	5.46	3.60	12.8%	10.1%	7.5%	46.9%	35.4%	33.6%
2016	16	97.6	4.77	4.23	16.3%	8.4%	9.4%	46.4%	33.4%	30.0%
2015	33	98.9	4.76	3.91	14.3%	6.9%	9.1%	41.9%	37.2%	23.9%

There has been one time this season when I have recommended Dickey. It was a start against the Phillies and I believe he exceeded value. Other than that, he has been an easy fade in DFS. On the seasons, he has allowed a 4.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.3%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight agains the red-hot Indians, who have won 12 straight games. Dickey is not a recommended play tonight and we may have to wait a while until he becomes one.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians have been on fire offensively during their winning streak. They are now ranked eighth in team wOBA and fifth in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They see a nice ballpark boost playing in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre and they draw a favorable matchup against R.A. Dickey. Over the last two seasons, Dickey has allowed 42 home runs in 49 starts.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.330 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.193 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.6% (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.90 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.36 (5 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.344	0.226	0.382	1B	$4,600	1B	$4,500
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.378	0.181	0.355	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,300
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.351	0.162	0.402	SS	$3,800	SS	$5,100
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.296	0.178	0.335	1B	$4,000	1B	$3,600
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.314	0.143	0.332	P	$4,000	3B/OF	$4,000
6	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.307	0.141	0.460	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.267	0.179	0.317	C	$2,700	C	$3,000
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.405	0.265	0.632	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,500
9	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.316	0.149	0.371	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,100
	Team Averages	—	0.331	0.180	0.398	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Toronto

The Blue Jays have a decent implied team total tonight, but that has more to do with their ballpark than it does their matchup. Over the last two seasons, Carlos Carrasco has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .286 wOBA. I get the feeling that the Jays will be able to score a few runs in this one, but I’m having a tough time predicting where that production is going to come from.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.332 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.198 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.0% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.78 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.14 (12 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.310	0.106	0.323	OF	$3,300	OF	$2,800
2	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.365	0.201	0.520	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,500
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.392	0.268	0.510	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,400
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.382	0.272	0.495	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,300
5	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.362	0.213	0.338	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.325	0.184	0.394	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,200
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.307	0.140	0.321	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,800
8	Josh Thole	LEFT	0.196	0.013	0.336	C	$2,000	C	$2,000
9	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.291	0.120	0.133	2B	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.326	0.169	0.374	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 30th

Texas at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor

Stackability – Cash & GPP

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Chase Headley, Didi Gregorious

Stackability – Cash & GPP

LA Dodgers at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez

Stackability – GPP

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun

Stackability – NONE

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Robbie Grossman, Trevor Plouffe

Stackability – NONE

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Brett Lawrie

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Dioner Navarro, Avisail Garcia

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – NONE

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Michael Taylor, Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper, Wilson Ramos

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cleveland at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – NONE

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