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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-10 18:51:04

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

San Francisco at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

San Francisco Philadelphia
sanfranciscomlb Ty Blach philadelphiamlb Vince Velasquez
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-135 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.263 0.308 28.2% 5.7% 9.4% 57.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.383 0.351 31.5% 10.8% 22.5% 41.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.343 0.352 33.2% 6.9% 11.3% 45.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.335 34.6% 9.2% 22.7% 38.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ty Blach
tyson-blach-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 16 of 20 Salary Rank: of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 5.36 4.78 10.6% 6.2% 46.7% 31.1% 18.4%
2018 8 4.65 3.60 11.5% 7.8% 57.7% 34.2% 16.1%
L14 2 4.05 1.98 10.9% 1.8% 55.3% 41.7% 16.7%

We have a single day game on the schedule. It is featured in the all-day slate and in the showdown slate, so we’ll run through it quickly. Blach isn’t a pitcher that we typically have interest in when it comes to DFS. Through eight starts this season, he owns a 4.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 11.5%. A low strikeout rate magnifies mistakes and places an emphasis on run prevention, which isn’t exactly Blach’s strong suit.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Blach in both cash games and tournaments.

Vince Velasquez
vincent-velasquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 9 of 20 Salary Rank: of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 4.73 5.13 21.6% 10.8% 42.5% 38.1% 15.2%
2018 7 3.99 5.14 24.7% 8.4% 34.3% 22.6% 16.7%
L14 2 5.64 7.00 19.1% 14.3% 30.8% 11.1% 22.2%

Velasquez got off to a hot start this season, but has struggled in his last two appearances. As a whole, he has a respectable 3.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. The Phillies’ pitchers have had a ton of success so far in this series and I like his chances to keep that streak alive. The projected lineup for San Francisco has six batters with a strikeout rate of at least 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Velasquez is the preferred target for the showdown slate, but there are better options in the all-day slate.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants have been unable to take advantage of the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. They have really struggled at the plate in this series. While Vince Velasquez has been in decent form this season, he has allowed a .350+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. I wouldn’t target any hitters in the all-day slate, but there are a few viable options for the showdown slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.294 0.235 0.117 26.7% 12.2% 22.4% 42.3% OF $2,400 N/A N/A
2 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.349 0.466 0.152 34.9% 11.5% 18.3% 41.7% OF $3,500 N/A N/A
3 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.418 0.442 0.269 42.6% 16.5% 22.4% 23.8% 1B $3,800 N/A N/A
4 Nick Hundley RIGHT 0.302 0.485 0.142 32.7% 3.1% 27.2% 39.9% C $2,400 N/A N/A
5 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.315 0.340 0.168 35.6% 4.3% 16.7% 42.2% 3B $3,000 N/A N/A
6 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.313 0.340 0.141 34.5% 6.5% 22.1% 46.8% SS $2,900 N/A N/A
7 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.236 0.303 0.141 21.1% 4.4% 22.4% 49.1% 2B $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.296 0.260 0.107 36.8% 7.7% 26.8% 45.2% OF $2,100 N/A N/A
9 Ty Blach LEFT 0.229 0.089 0.083 30.0% 9.3% 44.2% 46.7% P $6,400 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Gregor Blanco, Brandon Belt

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Nick Hundley, Evan Longoria

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw an exploitable matchup against Ty Blach and they are facing him at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Blach does have a high ground ball rate, but has still given up a .352 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. This sets up perfectly for Rhys Hoskins, who is a fly-ball hitter with plenty of power against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.367 0.375 0.158 26.6% 12.8% 11.8% 57.0% 2B $3,800 N/A N/A
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.435 0.352 0.324 44.9% 26.8% 20.6% 32.7% OF $4,300 N/A N/A
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.317 0.441 0.177 30.8% 3.9% 22.5% 49.7% OF $3,900 N/A N/A
4 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.379 0.432 0.282 40.4% 13.2% 18.4% 44.2% OF $2,800 N/A N/A
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.345 0.351 0.163 32.2% 12.8% 10.1% 48.9% 1B $3,300 N/A N/A
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.318 0.408 0.190 34.0% 7.1% 13.2% 46.2% 3B $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.276 0.263 0.129 36.8% 3.1% 37.5% 36.8% SS $2,500 N/A N/A
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.275 0.374 0.088 35.3% 9.5% 36.5% 52.9% C $2,200 N/A N/A
9 Vince Velasquez RIGHT 0.194 0.047 0.000 10.0% 7.1% 21.4% 44.4% P $7,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Altherr, Carlos Santana

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Boston NY Yankees
bostonmlb Eduardo Rodriguez nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-131 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.338 0.334 32.5% 7.8% 31.9% 31.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 0.265 14.9% 7.8% 21.7% 55.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.302 30.4% 9.0% 24.8% 37.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 0.315 29.9% 7.2% 18.5% 47.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez
eduardo-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $12,700
Salary Rank: 14 of 20 Salary Rank: 12 of 20 Salary Rank: 13 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.05 4.19 25.8% 8.6% 34.9% 30.8% 18.6%
2018 6 3.66 5.29 28.1% 9.4% 44.7% 30.6% 18.8%
L14 2 3.18 9.00 35.6% 11.1% 31.8% 40.9% 18.2%

Rodriguez has a high ERA this season, but should have some positive regression coming his way. In six starts, he has a 3.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. These numbers are certainly appealing, but a matchup against the Yankees in New York is not. Fly-ball pitchers tend to struggle in this ballpark, especially left-handed ones. The Yankees have too many right-handed power bats in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez offers more risk than upside in this matchup.

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,700
Salary Rank: 12 of 20 Salary Rank: 11 of 20 Salary Rank: 11 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 4.45 3.69 19.3% 8.0% 49.9% 27.2% 24.1%
2018 6 4.22 1.39 18.0% 3.9% 42.9% 28.6% 28.6%
L14 2 3.59 0.69 22.9% 2.1% 36.1% 19.4% 30.6%

Sabathia is having another Sabathia-like season. While he is no longer a high-strikeout pitcher, he keeps the ball on the ground and he limits hard contact. In fact, his soft contact rate is as high as his hard contact rate, which is impressive. The issue is the strikeout upside, especially in a matchup against the Red Sox. Their projected lineup has a .339 xwOBA and a 19% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Given the matchup and ballpark, we should be able to find better options.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Even though I won’t have any shares of CC Sabathia, he’s not a pitcher that we want to target hitters against. Over the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. Sabathia has also had their number, holding their current roster to a .288 wOBA in 178 plate appearances.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.397 0.543 0.291 35.6% 14.4% 7.5% 41.1% OF $5,100 OF $5,900 RF $11,700
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.287 0.266 0.056 20.2% 13.9% 20.5% 51.9% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 LF $8,300
3 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.334 0.350 0.180 37.9% 12.6% 22.6% 45.6% 1B $3,900 1B $4,000 1B $7,400
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.464 0.420 0.421 53.9% 11.8% 26.4% 31.5% OF $4,500 OF $5,000 RF $10,000
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.318 0.352 0.122 28.3% 10.1% 18.1% 49.1% SS $3,700 SS $4,500 SS $8,900
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.312 0.337 0.184 33.9% 8.4% 29.5% 47.5% 3B $3,200 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.300 0.263 0.114 27.5% 5.1% 11.2% 52.4% 2B $3,000 2B/SS $3,300 3B $6,700
8 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.300 0.221 0.100 27.9% 7.7% 23.7% 64.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
9 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.335 0.261 0.139 23.9% 3.7% 14.6% 44.8% C $2,100 C $2,400 C $4,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

I’ve basically been saying this on repeat, but the Yankees are one of the top stacks of the slate. They are facing a fly-ball pitcher in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. The sample size is still small, but this roster has had success against Eduardo Rodriguez in the past (.391 xwOBA in 79 plate appearances). All of the big right-handed bats are obviously in play, but the lefties also deserve a look given Rodriguez’s reverse-splits.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.301 0.339 0.069 20.1% 9.5% 19.0% 50.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 LF $6,300
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.430 0.316 0.262 45.1% 25.4% 32.0% 31.7% OF $4,900 OF $5,300 RF $9,900
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.277 0.305 0.116 16.8% 5.1% 14.3% 35.5% SS $4,200 SS $4,400 SS $9,400
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.476 0.363 0.497 47.6% 16.3% 16.8% 42.9% OF $4,900 OF $5,100 RF $10,700
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.393 0.418 0.294 38.4% 11.1% 24.2% 41.4% C $4,200 C $4,500 C $9,500
6 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.357 0.300 0.180 30.2% 10.8% 16.9% 45.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
7 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.267 0.244 0.100 20.0% 6.3% 15.6% 56.0% 3B $2,700 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
8 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.448 0.311 0.282 36.7% 12.8% 23.4% 33.3% 1B $3,000 1B $3,900 1B $7,700
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.370 0.395 0.000 25.0% 6.7% 13.3% 41.7% 2B $3,700 2B $4,000 2B $7,300

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks

Stackability – GREEN

Kansas City at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Kansas City Baltimore
kansascitymlb Ian Kennedy baltimoremlb Chris Tillman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
KC -112 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.340 0.379 45.4% 10.0% 19.2% 30.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.448 0.442 39.1% 18.0% 10.7% 45.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.327 0.353 37.7% 7.8% 21.4% 40.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.397 0.396 38.5% 5.8% 15.5% 35.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ian Kennedy
ian-kennedy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 8 of 20 Salary Rank: 13 of 20 Salary Rank: 12 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 4.88 5.38 20.0% 9.3% 36.0% 41.7% 11.8%
2018 7 4.10 2.92 21.7% 6.8% 33.6% 40.0% 20.0%
L14 2 3.35 1.64 28.3% 6.5% 30.0% 40.0% 16.7%

Kennedy is actually having a decent season thus far, posting a 4.10 SIERA with a slightly above-average strikeout rate. The problem is that with his high fly-ball rate and his high hard contact rate, a good outing can turn into a bad outing in an instant. He gives up far too many home runs for us to feel comfortable about rostering him in anything other than a tournament. I know the Orioles have some strikeouts in their lineup, but they have plenty of home run power as well.

Quick Breakdown: Kennedy offers some strikeout upside, but is a deep tournament dart at best in this ballpark.

Chris Tillman
chris-tillman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 19 of 20 Salary Rank: 18 of 20 Salary Rank: 18 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 19 5.76 7.84 14.2% 11.5% 39.5% 37.7% 16.3%
2018 6 6.03 9.24 10.3% 11.1% 39.6% 42.3% 8.3%
L14 2 5.16 7.88 13.9% 8.3% 40.7% 44.4% 3.7%

Tillman is having one of the worst seasons in recent memory. In six starts, he has a 6.03 SIERA (9.24 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 10%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, which is troublesome. He basically doesn’t have an out. With a low strikeout rate and a low ground ball rate, he constantly finds himself in trouble.

Quick Breakdown: Get your Royals’ stacks ready.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals have been a frustrating offense here in the early part of the season. I have fallen for their high implied run totals more than a time or two and have had little success stacking this offense. With that said, the stack did work well the other night when they scored ten runs in the first inning. I’m willing to give them another look tonight, as they face Chris Tillman in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Over the last two seasons, he has given up a .442 xwOBA to lefties and a .396 xwOBA to righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.323 0.298 0.083 29.5% 7.4% 18.2% 48.2% OF $2,500 OF $2,800 CF $5,600
2 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.297 0.385 0.105 32.6% 13.4% 26.8% 43.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 RF $7,500
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.382 0.380 0.287 36.3% 6.5% 15.1% 31.6% 3B $4,100 3B $4,500 3B $9,000
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.351 0.360 0.226 39.0% 3.3% 17.9% 33.1% C $3,300 C $3,900 C $7,200
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.377 0.355 0.271 42.5% 12.7% 24.6% 27.0% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 1B $6,300
6 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.319 0.344 0.145 31.5% 5.2% 14.3% 38.0% 2B $3,600 2B $4,300 IF/OF $8,200
7 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.306 0.406 0.136 33.9% 7.2% 23.9% 41.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 LF $7,700
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.276 0.319 0.093 27.6% 2.7% 14.9% 40.9% SS $2,400 SS $3,100 SS $5,600
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.280 0.206 0.123 30.3% 6.4% 21.0% 45.2% 2B $2,100 2B $2,400 2B $4,800

Elite Plays – Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Lucas Duda

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles’ stack is just as enticing as the Royals’ stack. While Ian Kennedy has a higher strikeout rate than Chris Tillman, he is just as hittable and the Orioles have more home run upside in their lineup. Over the last two seasons, Kennedy has allowed a .379 xwOBA to lefties and a .353 xwOBA to righties. You can stack both offenses or this game as a whole.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.357 0.313 0.195 34.7% 7.0% 23.4% 50.0% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,700
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.327 0.321 0.194 31.9% 3.1% 18.4% 43.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 CF $6,500
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.369 0.329 0.210 36.2% 8.6% 16.6% 42.4% SS $4,400 SS $4,900 3B $9,500
4 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.311 0.406 0.182 33.6% 3.7% 21.2% 42.4% 2B $2,900 2B $3,500 2B $6,600
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.336 0.338 0.205 41.5% 12.1% 34.6% 40.3% 1B $2,700 1B $3,100 IF/OF $5,700
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.301 0.306 0.154 31.6% 7.0% 25.5% 43.2% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,800 DH $7,700
7 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.368 0.439 0.204 36.6% 11.2% 27.6% 40.8% 3B $2,400 1B/3B $3,700 1B $7,600
8 Anthony Santander SWITCH 0.308 0.333 0.109 37.2% 3.1% 15.6% 32.1% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 RF $5,500
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.247 0.260 0.137 25.2% 2.9% 28.4% 47.3% C $2,200 C $2,400 C $4,800

Elite Plays – Trey Mancini, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Seattle at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Seattle Toronto
seattlemlb Mike Leake torontomlb J.A. Happ
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-145 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.341 0.374 32.4% 6.7% 12.5% 54.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.210 0.241 19.8% 3.8% 23.8% 56.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.324 35.2% 4.2% 20.2% 48.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.312 29.2% 8.0% 24.7% 44.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Leake
mike-leake-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,400
Salary Rank: 18 of 20 Salary Rank: 16 of 20 Salary Rank: 15 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.15 3.92 16.6% 4.7% 53.7% 32.7% 15.8%
2018 7 5.08 6.28 14.9% 8.6% 40.9% 38.6% 12.1%
L14 2 4.57 5.56 19.6% 9.8% 44.4% 25.0% 25.0%

Leake has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, which is a bit strange. Historically, he’s been a high ground ball pitcher that induces a lot of soft and medium contact. This season, he has a below-average ground ball rate, which is one of the factors that has led to a high ERA. He’s an easy fade on the road against the Blue Jays in a game that features a high total.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Leake in both cash games and tournaments.

J.A. Happ
j-a-happ-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $11,000 Salary: $21,100
Salary Rank: 2 of 20 Salary Rank: 1 of 20 Salary Rank: 1 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.11 3.53 22.7% 7.4% 46.9% 26.7% 20.3%
2018 7 2.95 3.67 31.0% 6.4% 48.5% 29.1% 17.5%
L14 2 3.76 3.55 24.5% 8.2% 53.1% 28.1% 15.6%

Happ is having a career year, posting a 2.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate 41%. He has good control, an above-average ground ball rate, and he is tough on both left and right-handed hitters. With that said, a matchup against the Mariners is far from ideal, especially in this ballpark. Their projected lineup has a .334 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 19% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Happ feels a little overpriced for the matchup, but is still viable in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners see a healthy boost playing in Toronto, but draw a difficult matchup against J.A. Happ. In addition to having an above-average ground ball rate and an above-average strikeout rate, Happ has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate over the last two seasons. Outside of a Nelson Cruz one-off in tournaments, the Mariners are an easy pass.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.250 0.269 0.053 12.8% 0.8% 11.8% 62.6% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,200
2 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.355 0.344 0.115 35.0% 8.2% 13.6% 45.3% SS $3,100 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.329 0.470 0.105 32.4% 8.2% 15.1% 55.1% 2B $3,700 2B $3,600 2B $7,600
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.448 0.413 0.217 44.1% 19.2% 19.7% 42.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,100 RF $8,600
5 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.355 0.420 0.225 31.1% 7.2% 18.7% 46.6% OF $3,800 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
6 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.299 0.385 0.167 28.6% 6.4% 19.2% 35.5% 3B $2,900 3B $3,500 3B $6,500
7 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.327 0.411 0.211 29.9% 4.4% 22.0% 41.9% 1B $3,300 1B $3,800 3B $7,500
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.329 0.345 0.252 35.9% 9.3% 36.4% 26.6% C $2,900 C $3,300 C $6,400
9 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.315 0.417 0.132 29.5% 7.2% 13.3% 43.4% OF $2,300 OF $2,600 LF $5,100

Elite Plays – Nelson Cruz (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Nelson Cruz (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

Mike Leake has historically been tough on righties, but he has struggled with both left and right-handed hitters this season. The Blue Jays are playing at home in a good ballpark for offensive production and they have one of the highest implied run totals of the slate. A stack is certainly viable here, as the Blue Jays have eight projected starters with at least a .175 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.354 0.405 0.250 35.6% 15.4% 23.8% 31.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,900 CF $7,300
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.382 0.247 0.263 34.7% 15.4% 23.1% 42.8% 3B $3,800 3B $4,700 3B $8,400
3 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.322 0.366 0.202 32.0% 7.9% 13.9% 38.0% 3B $3,200 2B/3B $3,900 2B $7,800
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.401 0.346 0.257 40.0% 12.0% 22.6% 33.9% 1B $3,100 1B $3,500 1B $6,400
5 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.405 0.391 0.351 39.4% 6.4% 27.0% 34.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 CF $7,200
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.318 0.404 0.142 28.5% 5.3% 15.6% 43.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 CF $7,700
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.342 0.326 0.186 30.0% 13.1% 22.0% 52.0% C $2,300 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.355 0.312 0.177 36.0% 7.9% 22.1% 46.8% 1B $2,300 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
9 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.389 0.373 0.175 41.4% 2.4% 26.8% 27.6% OF $2,300 2B/SS $2,800 2B $5,700

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Russell Martin (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Atlanta Miami
atlantamlb Mike Foltynewicz miamimlb Caleb Smith
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-110 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.361 0.354 33.9% 10.7% 21.1% 31.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.324 34.1% 9.7% 29.2% 38.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.320 26.1% 7.2% 22.6% 46.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.301 0.333 36.3% 12.8% 28.9% 25.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Foltynewicz
michael-foltynewicz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,700
Salary Rank: 11 of 20 Salary Rank: 5 of 20 Salary Rank: 5 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.57 4.79 20.7% 8.5% 39.4% 28.1% 15.8%
2018 7 3.94 3.65 26.9% 10.6% 38.8% 38.8% 14.3%
L14 2 4.39 5.73 20.4% 8.2% 31.4% 48.6% 11.4%

Foltynewicz is having a solid year overall, but has struggled in his last two starts. He’s always had an electric fastball, but has never been able to turn that into an above-average strikeout rate until this season. The Marlins have been a pesky offense for opposing pitchers, but are still an exploitable matchup on paper. Their projected lineup has a .289 xwOBA and a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Foltynewicz is viable in all formats, although I prefer him as an SP2.

Caleb Smith
caleb-smith-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 10 of 20 Salary Rank: 10 of 20 Salary Rank: 10 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 4.86 7.71 20.9% 11.6% 27.6% 32.8% 19.0%
2018 7 3.44 3.67 33.8% 12.0% 31.6% 37.7% 15.6%
L14 2 2.31 0.00 36.4% 4.6% 44.0% 38.5% 19.2%

Smith has really surprised so far this season, posting a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 33%. While those numbers are impressive, he has a 12% walk rate with a hard contact rate that is higher than his ground ball rate. With the way the Braves have been swinging the bat, targeting a pitcher against them is a bit scary. With that said, I am looking to spend up on bats tonight and Smith is one way to do just that.

Quick Breakdown: Smith is cheap and offers enough strikeout upside that he’s on my radar for tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves aren’t playing in the most hitter-friendly of ballparks, but they are facing a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. This offense has been firing on all cylinders and there’s no reason for it to slow down now. Since the start of last season, Smith has allowed a .333 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna are the top targets against the southpaw.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.396 0.333 0.304 39.3% 6.9% 9.9% 42.2% 2B $4,600 2B $5,200 2B $10,100
2 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.405 0.379 0.333 41.2% 0.0% 18.2% 47.1% OF $4,200 OF $4,700 LF $9,100
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.377 0.427 0.238 36.5% 9.3% 22.8% 38.9% 1B $4,300 1B $5,400 1B $11,000
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.323 0.422 0.155 30.4% 7.9% 15.9% 50.3% OF $3,700 OF $3,900 RF $7,200
5 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.279 0.373 0.122 21.9% 12.2% 25.6% 42.9% 3B $3,100 3B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,700
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.399 0.236 0.103 28.9% 16.7% 18.1% 57.8% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $4,600
7 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.347 0.362 0.247 34.8% 4.3% 21.5% 40.6% SS $3,000 3B/SS $3,200 SS $6,500
8 Mike Foltynewicz RIGHT 0.000 0.035 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 75.0% 0.0% P $7,500 P $9,500 P $18,700
9 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.271 0.283 0.060 18.6% 8.3% 12.7% 60.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 CF $7,200

Elite Plays – Ozzie Albies

Secondary Plays – Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

The Marlins have been an easy offense to avoid this season. While they’ve made it tough on pitchers, they don’t have much to offer when it comes to upside. Their matchup against Mike Foltynewicz is mediocre at best. He has struggled a bit against lefties, allowing a .354 xwOBA over the last two seasons. Justin Bour is a decent one-off in tournaments, but the rest of the Marlins can be avoided.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.337 0.375 0.168 33.9% 5.4% 18.0% 49.5% C $3,400 C $3,800 C $7,200
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.290 0.265 0.098 20.5% 4.0% 14.1% 46.7% 3B $2,200 3B $3,000 3B $5,600
3 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.301 0.321 0.139 30.6% 4.2% 19.5% 53.1% 2B $3,200 2B $3,400 2B $6,400
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.407 0.439 0.261 40.6% 11.8% 20.1% 41.3% 1B $3,200 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
5 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.309 0.371 0.103 29.5% 10.6% 25.0% 53.6% 3B $3,200 3B/OF $3,300 3B $6,600
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.319 0.322 0.163 34.7% 6.6% 21.6% 38.3% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 IF/OF $5,600
7 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.300 0.364 0.149 26.4% 13.0% 22.1% 54.5% OF $2,200 OF $3,000 CF $5,600
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.304 0.350 0.095 24.0% 7.1% 11.0% 54.2% SS $2,300 SS $2,600 2B $4,500
9 Caleb Smith LEFT 0.031 0.022 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 100.0% P $7,600 P $7,300 P $14,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour

Stackability – RED

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious