Sign In $

You must be a member to view this Article.

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-24 16:08:29

Jump to Page 1 2

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Pittsburgh Cincinnati
pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova cincinnatimlb Luis Castillo
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-125 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.376 0.445 32.7% 3.4% 9.4% 44.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.384 0.363 41.9% 10.1% 22.0% 43.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.331 34.5% 4.4% 21.6% 49.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.301 0.327 29.2% 8.7% 27.0% 59.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 6 of 15 Salary Rank: 9 of 15 Salary Rank: 9 of 15
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.45 4.14 16.7% 4.6% 45.7% 34.8% 16.6%
2018 10 3.84 4.79 17.8% 3.3% 49.2% 33.9% 15.9%
L14 2 3.92 4.63 12.8% 0.0% 48.8% 29.3% 17.1%

We have four early games, four late games, and one stuck inbetween. We’ll start with the Pirates and Reds, who are playing in one of the most home run-friendly parks in baseball. Nova has some fantasy appeal every now and then, but only when he’s facing a right-handed heavy lineup. That’s certainly not the case today, as the Reds are projected to have five of them in their lineup. Nova’s low strikeout rate (18%) makes him a tough sell in this matchup and ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Nova in all formats.

Luis Castillo
luis-castillo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 9 of 15 Salary Rank: 6 of 15 Salary Rank: 6 of 15
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 3.63 3.12 27.3% 8.9% 58.8% 29.7% 22.1%
2018 10 4.08 5.61 22.1% 8.9% 48.7% 36.5% 18.0%
L14 2 4.10 2.45 25.5% 10.6% 40.0% 33.3% 20.0%

Castillo has struggled to start the season, but he’s still one of the most talented young pitchers in baseball. He has an electric fastball, an above-average strikeout rate, and an above-average ground ball rate. A matchup against the Pirates isn’t one that we love for pitchers, but we are working with limited options in the early slate. I can’t really say anything good about this matchup, so basically it’s a bet on Castillo’s talent.

Quick Breakdown: Castillo is viable in all formats thanks to the lack of pitching options in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates see a major ballpark bump playing in Cincinnati and draw a boom or bust type of matchup against Luis Castillo. While he has shown improvement in his last couple of starts, he has still allowed a .363 xwOBA and a 43% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters over the course of the season. If you aren’t playing Castillo and want some leverage on the field, Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson, and Colin Moran are all viable tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.302 0.340 0.057 40.4% 8.2% 13.1% 38.3% 2B $3,100 2B $3,700 2B $7,300
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.367 0.335 0.234 34.7% 12.6% 21.2% 31.6% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 RF $8,500
3 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.432 0.539 0.229 41.8% 11.8% 16.8% 34.2% C $3,200 C $3,600 C $7,400
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.332 0.378 0.135 33.6% 10.1% 18.1% 49.1% 1B $3,300 1B $3,900 1B $7,400
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.359 0.252 0.201 31.2% 5.5% 9.7% 27.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
6 Colin Moran LEFT 0.395 0.471 0.183 36.2% 10.5% 16.5% 39.4% 3B $3,200 3B $3,700 3B $7,600
7 Austin Meadows LEFT 0.491 0.435 0.300 55.6% 0.0% 10.0% 44.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 CF $8,300
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.324 0.426 0.161 28.0% 7.6% 20.6% 37.6% SS $2,500 SS $3,000 SS $5,700
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.069 0.176 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 56.3% 71.4% P $7,900 P $6,400 P $13,100

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell, Colin Moran, Francisco Cervelli (GPP)

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds’ matchup against Ivan Nova is one of the simplest to break down. On the season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .331 xwOBA on a 50% ground ball rate. Meanwhile, he has given up a .445 xwOBA with a 33% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. This has been a trend for Nova for years, so we should continue to exploit it. Jesse Winker, Tucker Barnhart, Joey Votto, and Scooter Gennett are all elite plays and make a great stack for the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.374 0.243 0.077 39.1% 12.4% 14.9% 39.5% OF $2,300 OF $2,900 RF $5,900
2 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.361 0.356 0.144 36.0% 11.6% 19.4% 38.8% C $2,600 C $3,200 C $6,500
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.463 0.358 0.139 33.0% 15.7% 13.6% 32.0% 1B $4,200 1B $4,500 1B $9,300
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.365 0.378 0.223 40.0% 5.7% 15.6% 37.6% 2B $4,000 2B $4,600 2B $9,200
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.356 0.323 0.200 39.2% 6.0% 19.0% 33.8% 3B $3,700 3B $4,400 3B $8,500
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.347 0.351 0.244 36.1% 9.1% 20.5% 55.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 RF $7,300
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.264 0.231 0.098 29.6% 3.4% 15.2% 42.7% SS $2,900 SS $3,300 SS $6,700
8 Luis Castillo RIGHT 0.232 0.160 0.100 42.9% 0.0% 30.0% 71.4% P $7,300 P $7,800 P $15,300
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.251 0.207 0.067 16.4% 12.6% 26.1% 50.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 CF $6,900

Elite Plays – Jesse Winker, Tucker Barnhart, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – Eugenio Suarez, Scott Schebler

Stackability – GREEN

LA Angels at Toronto – 12:37 PM ET

LA Angels Toronto
laangelsmlb Nick Tropeano torontomlb Marco Estrada
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-108 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.342 43.8% 7.6% 19.7% 41.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.363 0.351 30.4% 10.1% 20.2% 26.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.351 0.411 47.7% 14.7% 19.1% 29.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.367 0.365 30.9% 9.5% 20.8% 27.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Tropeano
nick-tropeano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 10 of 15 Salary Rank: 8 of 15 Salary Rank: 8 of 15
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 6 4.89 4.45 19.4% 11.2% 35.9% 45.7% 13.0%
L14 2 6.10 7.27 14.6% 14.6% 31.0% 48.3% 20.7%

Tropeano pitched well in his first start of the season, but has tailed off ever since. He now owns a 4.89 SIERA with an 11% walk rate and a 46% hard contact rate. He draws a difficult matchup against the Blue Jays on the road in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs. Toronto is typically very good at home and their projected lineup has a .342 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Tropeano in all formats.

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $11,900
Salary Rank: 8 of 15 Salary Rank: 10 of 15 Salary Rank: 10 of 15
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.69 4.98 21.8% 8.8% 30.3% 27.2% 21.4%
2018 9 4.87 5.15 18.6% 7.0% 25.6% 32.5% 18.1%
L14 2 4.30 4.97 20.8% 1.9% 24.4% 26.8% 19.5%

Estrada is a form pitcher. When he’s on, he can string together quality starts. When he’s off, he’s one of the best pitchers to stack against given his high walk and fly ball rates. His last two starts have been encouraging. While he has given up seven earned runs, he has only issued one walk while striking out 12 batters. He would not be on my radar in a larger slate, but we are working with very little here in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Estrada is the preferred pitching target in this game and viable in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels are facing an extreme fly-ball pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. There are plenty of reasons to like this offense. Even though Marco Estrada makes some sense in tournaments, I plan to have some exposure to the Angels’ offense as well. On the season, Estrada has allowed a .351 xwOBA to lefties and a .365 xwOBA to righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.326 0.352 0.104 31.0% 10.8% 9.9% 44.8% 2B $2,700 2B $3,300 2B $6,500
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.440 0.358 0.323 46.5% 19.5% 19.5% 33.7% OF $4,800 OF $5,400 CF $10,100
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.377 0.398 0.242 43.1% 7.2% 26.3% 41.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 LF $9,000
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.331 0.297 0.167 39.0% 4.0% 13.9% 39.8% 1B $2,700 1B $3,300 1B $6,800
5 Shohei Ohtani RIGHT 0.441 0.403 0.358 47.1% 4.3% 22.9% 39.2% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
6 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.374 0.375 0.149 37.1% 6.1% 4.6% 46.9% SS $3,400 SS $3,700 SS $7,600
7 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.311 0.289 0.183 36.7% 7.1% 19.9% 40.2% 3B $2,800 2B/3B $3,400 SS $6,700
8 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.298 0.259 0.107 24.6% 5.4% 16.1% 39.7% C $2,200 C $2,500 C $4,600
9 Michael Hermosillo RIGHT 0.088 0.330 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 CF $6,700

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmnos

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays have one of the highest implied run totals of the early slate. Their offense is typically firing on all cylinders at home and they draw an exploitable matchup against Nick Tropeano. On the season, he has allowed a .342 xwOBA to lefties and a .411 xwOBA to righties. He also has a high walk rate and a high hard contact rate, which makes him a great pitcher to stack against.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.364 0.368 0.183 41.4% 18.8% 29.9% 34.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,500
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.314 0.288 0.228 35.7% 13.0% 26.1% 44.6% 3B $4,000 3B $4,500 3B $8,900
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.404 0.386 0.200 36.6% 18.4% 24.0% 31.0% 1B $3,700 1B $4,000 1B $7,300
4 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.446 0.410 0.289 45.1% 5.2% 20.6% 33.8% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 CF $7,700
5 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.356 0.340 0.209 32.6% 7.9% 16.7% 38.9% 2B $3,300 2B/3B $3,500 2B $6,800
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.375 0.250 0.189 35.2% 5.8% 17.4% 38.1% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.319 0.330 0.217 33.9% 13.4% 24.7% 49.2% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $5,700
8 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.346 0.459 0.147 38.6% 9.6% 21.7% 50.9% 1B $2,400 1B $3,100 1B $5,500
9 Gio Urshela RIGHT 0.157 0.339 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 27.3% 25.0% SS $2,000 3B $2,900 3B $5,900

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Baltimore Chicago White Sox
baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy whitesoxmlb Lucas Giolito
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-125 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.412 0.408 34.6% 9.7% 20.4% 29.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.387 0.434 32.9% 20.0% 10.9% 35.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 0.308 33.2% 6.8% 27.9% 36.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 0.331 33.3% 9.8% 16.7% 43.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,800
Salary Rank: 4 of 15 Salary Rank: 4 of 15 Salary Rank: 4 of 15
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.45 4.24 21.8% 7.3% 32.8% 36.5% 17.6%
2018 10 3.69 4.70 26.8% 8.1% 34.7% 34.4% 16.6%
L14 2 3.90 2.77 29.4% 11.8% 33.3% 36.7% 6.7%

Bundy has had a roller coaster type of season. He came out of the gates firing, then he stumbled in a few straight outings, and now he’s back to what he was doing earlier in the year. Overall, he owns a 3.69 SIERA with a 27% strikeout rate. The White Sox are a great team to target right-handed pitchers against, as their projected lineup has a 25% strikeout rate against righties on the season. Bundy would typically be a better tournament play than cash game option, but there’s not really a difference in a slate this small.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy is my favorite pitcher to pair with Castillo in the early slate.

Lucas Giolito
lucas-giolito-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,300
Salary Rank: 13 of 15 Salary Rank: 13 of 15 Salary Rank: 12 of 15
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 7 4.49 2.38 19.0% 6.7% 45.0% 35.4% 19.2%
2018 9 6.43 6.42 12.3% 15.5% 40.9% 30.0% 14.7%
L14 2 6.78 3.86 11.5% 17.3% 45.5% 32.4% 5.9%

Giolito is one of the worst pitchers in baseball, at least by the numbers. He currently owns a 6.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 12% and a walk rate of 16%. The Orioles’ offense has now let us down two straight games, but I’d rather try a third time than roster one of these White Sox pitchers. Giolito doesn’t have a high enough strikeout rate to make up for mistakes and he tends to make quite a few.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Giolito in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles can’t let us down for a third straight day, right? At this point, anyone that stacked them against James Shields or Dylan Covey will be fed up. Their ownership should be very reasonable, especially for a four-game slate. We have to look at the bigger picture in DFS and not get bogged down by a bad game or two. I see a matchup against Lucas Giolito, who has allowed a .434 xwOBA to lefties and a .331 xwOBA to righties. If you’ve played Baltimore the last two nights, there is no point in hopping off now.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.397 0.422 0.116 37.6% 10.9% 21.7% 46.2% OF $3,100 1B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.363 0.372 0.230 38.2% 2.1% 20.8% 38.5% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 CF $7,600
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.398 0.433 0.287 31.8% 11.7% 16.9% 37.3% SS $4,900 SS $5,500 3B $10,100
4 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.239 0.262 0.212 23.4% 1.1% 25.8% 49.2% 2B $3,200 2B $3,600 2B $7,700
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.293 0.302 0.050 32.4% 9.2% 34.4% 48.6% 1B $2,400 1B $3,200 IF/OF $6,800
6 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.374 0.184 0.271 32.8% 13.3% 24.5% 37.7% 3B $2,700 1B/3B $3,700 1B $7,300
7 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.361 0.364 0.164 47.6% 1.8% 23.2% 40.5% OF $3,100 1B $3,600 DH $7,300
8 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.276 0.335 0.085 24.4% 13.0% 26.1% 51.2% 2B $2,300 2B/3B $2,600 2B $5,000
9 Chance Sisco LEFT 0.270 0.322 0.118 31.8% 7.0% 37.2% 48.8% C $2,200 C $3,300 C $6,400

Elite Plays – Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox

Dylan Bundy projects to be one of the highest owned pitchers of the early slate. One route for leverage is to target a few of these White Sox hitters. On the season, Bundy has allowed a .408 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and we know that this ballpark favors left-handed power. Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, and Daniel Palka are all intriguing tournament plays that should garner very little ownership.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.420 0.288 0.255 42.7% 11.6% 32.2% 28.4% 2B $3,700 2B $4,000 2B $7,200
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.343 0.312 0.177 30.2% 2.3% 15.3% 46.6% 3B $2,800 3B $3,300 2B $6,300
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.447 0.480 0.233 39.5% 8.0% 13.3% 40.4% 1B $4,000 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
4 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.378 0.424 0.328 36.4% 1.7% 23.7% 38.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
5 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.423 0.391 0.248 44.8% 15.0% 31.5% 37.3% 3B $3,300 1B/3B $3,700 3B $7,600
6 Trayce Thompson RIGHT 0.194 0.166 0.167 17.4% 2.7% 35.1% 30.4% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 CF $5,800
7 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.277 0.267 0.138 19.5% 8.6% 23.4% 48.8% SS $3,000 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
8 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.221 0.240 0.014 12.5% 9.8% 30.5% 45.7% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 CF $5,700
9 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.299 0.319 0.082 27.8% 12.5% 23.2% 33.3% C $2,000 C $2,300 C $4,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu, Daniel Palka

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Seattle Oakland
seattlemlb Felix Hernandez oaklandmlb Josh Lucas
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK-102 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.409 35.2% 12.0% 22.2% 35.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.143 0.187 28.6% 9.1% 27.3% 57.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.332 0.354 34.6% 7.2% 21.6% 43.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.261 23.8% 6.3% 28.1% 66.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Felix Hernandez
felix-hernandez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,700
Salary Rank: 12 of 15 Salary Rank: 7 of 15 Salary Rank: 7 of 15
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.19 4.36 21.2% 7.1% 46.9% 30.7% 19.1%
2018 10 4.64 5.53 20.0% 10.2% 39.3% 37.0% 21.2%
L14 2 4.50 6.55 20.4% 9.3% 36.1% 47.2% 22.2%

Hernandez has flashed some upside here and there, but he’s an aging pitcher on the downside of his career. Through ten starts this season, he has a 4.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate of 10%. He no longer induces ground balls at a high rate and is giving up a lot of hard contact this year. He is an easy fade against the A’s, whose projected lineup has a .345 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid King Felix in all formats.

Josh Lucas
josh-lucas-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 15 of 15 Salary Rank: 15 of 15 Salary Rank: 15 of 15
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 4.24 3.68 21.9% 12.5% 60.0% 35.0% 25.0%
2018 0 2.88 1.35 29.2% 8.3% 53.3% 26.7% 20.0%
L14 0 1.07 2.45 50.0% 7.1% 33.3% 0.0% 16.7%

Lucas pitched well in his last outing where Brett Anderson was forced to exit the game early due to an injury. He’ll draw a spot start today, but this is more of a bullpen start than anything. He’s not stretched out enough to throw more than 50-60 pitches. He’s also unproven at the major league level. The cherry on top is that he is facing a Mariners’ offense that has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lucas in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners draw a boom or bust matchup against 27-year old Josh Lucas, who is making a spot start for the A’s. While this isn’t the best ballpark for offensive production, this is a sneaky matchup to exploit in tournaments. The Mariners have plenty of firepower offensively, as evidenced by an average xwOBA of .366 in their projected lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.330 0.353 0.148 33.9% 3.5% 14.6% 53.0% SS $3,900 SS $4,500 SS $9,500
2 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.395 0.405 0.269 21.7% 22.5% 15.0% 42.9% OF $2,500 OF $2,800 LF $5,800
3 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.360 0.318 0.209 36.6% 4.0% 20.2% 50.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 RF $7,200
4 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.357 0.362 0.225 40.2% 7.7% 17.7% 32.0% 3B $3,200 3B $3,600 3B $7,300
5 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.394 0.406 0.226 35.8% 3.4% 19.5% 40.9% 1B $3,000 1B $3,500 3B $6,400
6 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.314 0.397 0.108 26.5% 8.3% 22.2% 40.8% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 RF $5,400
7 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.402 0.348 0.303 45.2% 6.9% 33.3% 35.7% C $2,700 C $3,100 C $5,500
8 Daniel Vogelbach LEFT 0.445 0.569 0.179 53.9% 14.9% 27.7% 38.5% 1B $2,200 1B $2,800 1B $5,400
9 Gordon Beckham RIGHT 0.295 0.274 0.000 42.9% 0.0% 30.0% 60.0% 2B $2,000 2B/3B $2,700 2B $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Guillermo Heredia, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Ryon Healy

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

The A’s are one of the top stacks of the early slate. Felix Hernandez is no longer a pitcher to be feared, especially for left-handed hitters. On the season, he has allowed a .409 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to lefties. Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, and Matt Olson are all elite options at their respective positions. If you want to complete the stack, I don’t mind throwing in Marcus Semien and/or Matt Chapman.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.300 0.269 0.097 26.6% 6.4% 21.2% 45.1% SS $3,300 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.346 0.354 0.179 33.0% 15.6% 24.5% 31.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.379 0.312 0.266 37.4% 12.6% 18.2% 39.4% 2B $3,800 2B $4,200 2B $8,300
4 Matt Olson LEFT 0.377 0.312 0.228 50.6% 11.4% 31.4% 34.2% 1B $3,400 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
5 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.381 0.387 0.233 41.5% 12.2% 23.6% 39.8% 3B $3,400 3B $4,300 3B $8,200
6 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.357 0.389 0.129 41.8% 7.1% 21.4% 49.4% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 RF $6,300
7 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.310 0.266 0.088 39.2% 6.0% 13.0% 44.9% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,400
8 Dustin Fowler LEFT 0.346 0.334 0.188 40.7% 11.1% 13.9% 48.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,900 CF $7,400
9 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.310 0.350 0.129 38.8% 9.0% 26.9% 34.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,600

Elite Plays – Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson

Secondary Plays – Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Houston at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Houston Cleveland
houstonmlb Charlie Morton clevelandmlb Mike Clevinger
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-120 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.202 0.240 31.9% 9.4% 43.4% 52.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 0.353 30.8% 10.0% 19.1% 48.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.332 0.259 26.0% 7.7% 21.0% 56.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.266 0.284 31.2% 10.4% 26.8% 45.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Charlie Morton
charlie-morton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,200 Salary: $11,400 Salary: $22,300
Salary Rank: 1 of 15 Salary Rank: 1 of 15 Salary Rank: 1 of 15
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 3.70 3.62 26.4% 8.1% 51.8% 26.9% 22.1%
2018 9 2.88 1.94 32.1% 8.3% 55.6% 27.6% 22.8%
L14 2 1.41 1.29 43.1% 2.0% 53.6% 32.1% 10.7%

The sites can’t seem to agree on a slate today. This game is included in the main slate on DraftKings, but not on the main slate on FanDuel. For that reason, I will focus my attention on the viable plays for DraftKings in this game. Morton is having a career year, posting a 2.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a ground ball rate of 56%. He has all of the tools needed to be an elite pitcher and by all accounts, he is just that. The issue here is a matchup against the Indians, whose projected lineup has a .336 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Morton deserves consideration in all formats, but he’s not an auto-play against the Indians.

Mike Clevinger
michael-clevinger-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $9,000 Salary: $18,000
Salary Rank: 3 of 15 Salary Rank: 3 of 15 Salary Rank: 3 of 15
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 21 4.24 3.11 27.3% 12.0% 39.5% 34.2% 18.6%
2018 9 4.05 2.87 21.3% 7.7% 47.6% 29.3% 16.8%
L14 2 4.08 3.21 19.6% 7.1% 46.3% 41.5% 12.2%

Clevinger has given up some of his strikeout upside for better control. He has improved his walks and has generated a higher ground ball rate. This has helped him pitch deeper into games. While the dip in strikeouts isn’t ideal, he’s become a slightly better real-life pitcher. The issue today is a matchup against the Astros, who have one of the best offenses in baseball. Their lineup is loaded with power and they have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: I have a hard time playing pitchers against the Astros, even in small slates like this one.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros draw a fairly difficult matchup against Mike Clevinger, who has been very tough on right-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .284 xwOBA. The best hitters from Houston are all right-handed, which doesn’t bode well in this matchup. I wouldn’t completely rule out the Astros here, but there are better spots to target in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.356 0.329 0.144 33.0% 7.2% 17.8% 52.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,900 RF $9,000
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.408 0.500 0.163 39.6% 13.8% 11.8% 40.5% 3B $3,900 3B $4,000 3B $7,400
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.362 0.405 0.109 34.4% 6.9% 12.5% 44.8% 2B $4,100 2B $4,600 2B $9,300
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.368 0.328 0.248 29.8% 10.3% 24.0% 46.8% SS $3,800 SS $4,600 SS $9,200
5 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.293 0.282 0.152 29.5% 12.2% 24.4% 43.2% 1B $2,400 1B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,500
6 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.274 0.285 0.098 28.6% 4.0% 11.0% 53.6% 1B $2,900 1B $3,700 1B $7,300
7 Brian McCann LEFT 0.313 0.271 0.160 28.3% 9.4% 18.8% 15.0% C $2,600 C $3,500 C $6,400
8 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.252 0.366 0.127 28.3% 8.8% 32.5% 37.0% C $2,700 C $3,800 C $7,400
9 Tony Kemp LEFT 0.372 0.407 0.083 27.3% 7.1% 14.3% 45.5% OF $2,500 2B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland

The Indians have one of the most talented offenses in baseball, but draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate and an elite ground ball rate, Charlie Morton has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 xwOBA this season. I see the Indians as a full fade, even though we have limited options in the four-game slate on DraftKings.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.419 0.436 0.298 38.5% 9.2% 21.3% 30.9% SS $4,400 SS $5,100 SS $10,000
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.416 0.444 0.253 38.6% 5.8% 8.7% 42.0% OF $4,100 OF $4,600 LF $9,200
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.399 0.403 0.345 28.0% 16.2% 9.6% 36.0% 3B $4,500 3B $5,200 IF/OF $10,300
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.356 0.395 0.224 37.0% 5.9% 28.8% 38.4% 1B $3,600 1B $3,900 1B $7,200
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.373 0.373 0.200 38.1% 8.3% 22.3% 41.7% 1B $2,800 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
6 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.211 0.220 0.000 0.0% 16.7% 16.7% 50.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,500 LF $6,600
7 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.337 0.424 0.040 36.7% 10.6% 19.1% 38.5% 2B $2,600 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.297 0.253 0.197 34.1% 6.4% 34.6% 31.8% C $2,600 C $3,300 C $6,300
9 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.214 0.278 0.074 40.0% 6.9% 41.4% 58.3% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 CF $6,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious