MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 25th

Jump to Page 1 2 3


The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Pittsburgh at Atlanta – 12:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Atlanta
Article Image Ivan Nova Article Image Bartolo Colon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-105 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.362 36.2% 3.4% 12.3% 46.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.340 0.351 37.5% 5.5% 15.6% 35.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.294 0.286 30.7% 3.5% 21.8% 58.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.301 33.6% 3.0% 16.6% 48.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ivan Nova
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 6 of 24 Salary Rank: 8 of 24 Salary Rank: 9 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.76 4.17 18.6% 4.1% 53.6% 34.4% 18.5%
2017 9 3.93 2.63 14.7% 1.6% 51.3% 30.5% 15.8%

We have all kinds of slates on tap today. We have the six game early-only slate, the 12 game all-day slate, and the five game main slate. We will cover every game here in the Grind Down because that’s what we do every day. Nova’s strikeout rate is all the way down to 15% this season. He does a good job of inducing ground balls and getting right-handed hitters out, but this ballpark does not suit his skill set. SunTrust Park is extremely favorable to left-handed hitters and that has been Nova’s biggest weakness throughout his career.

Quick Breakdown: Nova can be avoided in all formats.

Bartolo Colon
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 19 of 24 Salary Rank: 18 of 24 Salary Rank: 14 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.37 3.43 16.2% 4.1% 43.2% 35.4% 16.2%
2017 9 4.63 6.38 15.7% 5.2% 38.9% 36.4% 20.0%

If Colon is favored in a game when the Braves don’t have Freddie Freeman, that says a lot about how little Vegas trusts Ivan Nova and the Pirates. Even though Colon is favored, he should not be on your radar in the early slate. His numbers are down across the board this season, posting a 4.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He has always given up a lot of hard contact and his home park isn’t doing him any favors. The Pirates aren’t great against right-handed pitching, but they have enough pieces to make it tough on Colon in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Colon has more blowup potential than upside at this point in his career.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates and Braves played nine innings to a draw last night, but Pittsburgh teed off on Josh Collmenter and ended up scoring seven runs in the top of the tenth inning. As an owner of Josh Bell, it was extremely frustrating to see him go 0-for-6 in a game where the Pirates scored 12 runs. I will be going right back to the well today, as Bartolo Colon has allowed a .351 xwOBA with a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Adam Frazier, Josh Harrison, and Andrew McCutchen are also in play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.344 0.334 0.132 32.3% 7.2% 15.5% 43.0% OF $3,400 2B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.298 0.274 0.103 27.4% 4.0% 14.9% 43.5% 3B $3,000 2B/3B $3,900 2B $7,800
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.310 0.331 0.155 34.7% 9.3% 21.3% 36.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 RF $6,400
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.357 0.354 0.192 31.8% 12.9% 16.6% 51.2% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.320 0.322 0.136 32.5% 8.6% 27.3% 59.6% 3B $2,500 3B $3,100 3B $6,400
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.305 0.321 0.096 28.5% 12.8% 18.8% 52.4% C $3,100 C $3,000 C $6,400
7 John Jaso LEFT 0.339 0.337 0.158 31.4% 10.9% 16.7% 48.0% 1B $2,800 1B/OF $3,000 1B $6,600
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.284 0.295 0.089 25.3% 8.8% 14.0% 49.8% SS $2,800 SS $2,700 SS $6,400
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.075 0.058 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 65.0% 50.0% P $8,700 P $8,700 P $15,300

Elite Plays – Josh Bell

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta

The Braves have a high implied run total yet again and this is something that we should get accustomed to when they are playing at home. SunTrust Park is a lot more hitter-friendly than Turner Field was. I wouldn’t recommend using any of the right-handed hitters here, as Ivan Nova has held them to a .286 xwOBA with a 59% ground ball rate. The lefties are firmly in play though, with Nova allowing a .362 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate. Fire up Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, and Matt Adams once again. If you want to complete the Braves’ stack, Matt Kemp, Tyler Flowers, and Rio Ruiz all have good power numbers against righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.311 0.290 0.112 26.3% 8.3% 14.1% 43.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 CF $9,000
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.326 0.304 0.122 28.7% 3.3% 12.1% 48.1% 2B $2,700 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
3 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.341 0.361 0.141 33.3% 11.6% 16.8% 41.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.338 0.351 0.221 37.0% 5.2% 24.2% 39.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,800 LF $9,300
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.327 0.335 0.200 36.2% 8.2% 26.9% 32.2% 1B $2,500 1B/OF $3,500 1B $7,200
6 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.299 0.310 0.133 29.9% 6.3% 12.2% 41.9% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,300
7 Rio Ruiz LEFT 0.335 0.440 0.294 63.6% 5.6% 33.3% 45.5% 3B $2,300 3B $2,900 3B $5,600
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.274 0.293 0.085 31.4% 10.1% 26.6% 45.2% SS $2,700 SS $3,900 SS $7,200
9 Bartolo Colon RIGHT 0.078 0.056 0.075 9.5% 0.0% 62.5% 57.1% P $6,700 P $5,900 P $13,600

Elite Plays – Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp, Tyler Flowers, Rio Ruiz

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


Seattle at Washington – 12:05 PM ET

Seattle Washington
Article Image Ariel Miranda Article Image Gio Gonzalez
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-144 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.327 33.3% 8.1% 18.6% 51.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.276 0.312 25.3% 8.1% 19.1% 57.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.309 33.5% 7.7% 21.4% 30.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.332 0.322 34.1% 8.8% 22.3% 44.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ariel Miranda
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 17 of 24 Salary Rank: 16 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 4.77 3.88 19.0% 7.8% 31.2% 37.1% 17.7%
2017 9 4.06 4.28 22.9% 7.8% 39.7% 29.1% 17.7%

Miranda is quietly having a nice season for the Mariners, posting a 4.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that has shown good command and has limited the hard contact against him. He is a pitcher that should be on our radar moving forward, but he’s an easy fade today against the Nationals. He comes into the game as a sizable underdog with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. The Nationals currently lead the majors with a .375 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than potential reward for Miranda in this start.

Gio Gonzalez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 8 of 24 Salary Rank: 9 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.96 4.57 22.4% 7.7% 47.6% 32.7% 18.1%
2017 9 4.90 2.86 19.3% 11.7% 45.6% 30.5% 23.2%

Gonzalez has left such a bad taste in my mouth over the years that I refuse to roster him. It’s a good thing too, given the fact that he is having a down season. His ERA may say one thing, but he has a 4.90 SIERA with a decreased strikeout rate and a walk rate of 12%. He may be listed as a favorite here, but this game has an uncharacteristically high over/under of 9.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: The Mariners have struggled against lefties this season, but I don’t play Gonzalez out of principle.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

A team with Nelson Cruz on it should not be ranked 28th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching. Maybe a classic Gio Gonzalez start can boost them a few spots in the rankings. In all seriousness, Gonzalez has allowed a .322 xwOBA with a 34% hard contact rate to righties in the last two seasons, which brings Jean Segura, Danny Valencia, Mike Zunino, and Nelson Cruz into play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.326 0.307 0.136 30.4% 8.2% 20.9% 50.7% SS $3,500 SS $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.312 0.291 0.092 19.1% 8.3% 9.3% 48.8% OF $2,700 OF $2,400 N/A N/A
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.313 0.297 0.164 29.8% 4.9% 15.5% 52.9% 2B $3,600 2B $4,500 N/A N/A
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.423 0.434 0.347 38.8% 12.2% 21.7% 44.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.306 0.333 0.177 31.6% 6.9% 19.6% 40.4% 3B $3,100 3B $3,500 N/A N/A
6 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.395 0.384 0.199 32.8% 11.6% 16.9% 48.4% 1B $2,900 1B $2,900 N/A N/A
7 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.345 0.368 0.208 42.9% 19.4% 32.3% 35.7% C $2,200 C $2,700 N/A N/A
8 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.317 0.262 0.094 10.0% 6.5% 8.1% 63.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
9 Ariel Miranda LEFT P $7,300 P $6,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Danny Valencia, Mike Zunino

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals have one of the highest implied run totals in the early slate, even though their matchup against Ariel Miranda doesn’t look great on paper. Miranda has allowed a higher xwOBA to lefties, but a 52% ground ball rate isn’t appealing. Against righties, he has allowed a 33% hard contact rate and a 31% ground ball rate, which is where we should look to attack him. All of the right-handed hitters are in play here and you can complete the stack with Bryce Harper and/or Daniel Murphy.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.285 0.290 0.079 36.2% 2.2% 22.0% 47.1% SS $3,600 SS $4,800 N/A N/A
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.431 0.423 0.289 43.8% 14.9% 19.3% 37.1% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.348 0.319 0.207 30.2% 12.9% 26.8% 43.5% OF $4,700 OF $5,400 N/A N/A
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.345 0.373 0.274 40.2% 9.3% 15.5% 52.6% 1B $3,700 1B $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.387 0.380 0.228 33.7% 5.8% 12.1% 38.0% 2B $3,800 2B $5,000 N/A N/A
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.377 0.373 0.172 36.0% 18.0% 15.3% 33.0% 3B $3,200 3B $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.323 0.359 0.151 32.3% 9.8% 19.7% 34.4% C $2,800 C $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.334 0.305 0.172 35.6% 5.7% 38.1% 44.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.000 0.103 0.000 22.2% 0.0% 35.7% 50.0% P $8,600 P $8,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


Colorado at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

Colorado Philadelphia
Article Image Tyler Anderson Article Image Vince Velasquez
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
COL-104 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.294 0.298 23.9% 8.0% 21.6% 52.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.329 32.8% 10.3% 25.3% 38.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.350 0.289 30.1% 5.9% 21.5% 47.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.311 34.3% 7.2% 27.8% 36.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Anderson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 11 of 24 Salary Rank: 15 of 24 Salary Rank: 6 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 3.84 3.54 20.7% 5.9% 50.9% 28.2% 24.2%
2017 9 3.86 6.00 23.4% 7.7% 42.3% 29.6% 23.2%

The Rockies have absolutely dominated this series, both in terms of pitching and scoring runs. The Phillies have scored a combined five runs in the first three games and come into this game as a small underdog. I have been streaming the Rockies’ pitchers in tournaments in this series and there is no reason to stop now. The Phillies are a lot better against left-handed pitching than they are against righties, but their team wOBA and team k-rate are right around the major league average. Anderson has a high ground ball rate and an above-average strikeout rate, both of which should help him in this small ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Anderson is a viable play in all formats given the lack of pitching options in the early slate, but I prefer him as a GPP play.

Vince Velasquez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $9,200 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 16 of 24 Salary Rank: 5 of 24 Salary Rank: 10 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.62 4.12 27.6% 8.2% 34.8% 32.6% 18.4%
2017 8 4.21 5.98 23.6% 10.5% 43.5% 36.3% 14.5%

There has been some speculation that the Phillies want to move Velasquez to the bullpen, but for now, they will continue to develop him as a starter. He has a great fastball and an above-average strikeout rate, but he struggles with his command and gives up a lot of hard contact. His numbers are down this season and he is running into a buzz saw in the Rockies’ offense. If he isn’t striking batters out left and right, he could really struggle against the big bats of Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and Carlos Gonzalez.

Quick Breakdown: Velasquez has not been in good form recently and is facing a red-hot offense. He is a deep GPP flier at best.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies seem to like Citizens Bank Park almost as much as Coors Field. Their offense should continue to roll today against Vince Velasquez, who has given up 13 earned runs in his last three starts. Velasquez has a high walk rate and has allowed a 33+% hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The usual suspects are all in play from Colorado, especially in this small ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.406 0.373 0.276 38.8% 7.0% 17.3% 30.7% OF $4,500 OF $5,600 CF $10,800
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.371 0.374 0.123 33.0% 9.5% 12.5% 53.1% 2B $3,000 2B $4,700 2B $8,700
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.376 0.344 0.267 36.9% 7.9% 14.3% 36.0% 3B $4,100 3B $5,200 3B $9,600
4 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.353 0.343 0.188 35.4% 10.1% 18.3% 43.9% OF $3,100 OF $4,500 RF $8,400
5 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.322 0.305 0.156 30.0% 6.1% 25.5% 55.4% OF $3,400 1B/OF $4,100 LF $8,000
6 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.292 0.294 0.157 34.9% 2.7% 18.9% 51.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 LF $7,600
7 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.338 0.323 0.248 37.7% 8.0% 32.3% 30.5% SS $3,300 SS $4,500 SS $8,400
8 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.332 0.288 0.137 23.1% 10.1% 21.8% 41.5% C $2,600 C $2,900 C $6,000
9 Tyler Anderson LEFT 0.225 0.210 0.086 10.3% 10.9% 26.1% 50.0% P $8,200 P $6,900 P $16,800

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Ian Desmond, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies’ offense can’t seem to get anything going right now. The sledding won’t get any easier, as they take on Tyler Anderson, who is a ground ball pitcher with an above-average strikeout rate. In the last two seasons, Anderson has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate. Aaron Altherr, Tommy Joseph, and Maikel Franco are all viable one-off targets, but I wouldn’t go overboard on the Phillies’ hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.328 0.284 0.089 22.5% 7.3% 19.4% 58.4% 2B $2,900 2B $3,500 2B $7,200
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.237 0.262 0.112 25.0% 2.1% 17.9% 40.7% SS $2,600 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.376 0.350 0.233 33.9% 11.9% 20.2% 48.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.371 0.376 0.311 35.5% 10.1% 22.5% 33.3% 1B $3,500 1B $3,800 1B $7,200
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.342 0.360 0.227 38.5% 6.7% 16.7% 43.7% 3B $3,200 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
6 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.296 0.284 0.076 23.9% 9.2% 22.8% 58.5% OF $2,800 OF $2,800 IF/OF $6,000
7 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.420 0.316 0.306 39.7% 7.5% 28.3% 50.0% C $2,400 C $3,100 C $6,300
8 Ty Kelly SWITCH 0.398 0.297 0.130 31.8% 17.2% 6.9% 40.9% 1B $2,100 3B/OF $2,400 IF/OF $4,500
9 Vince Velasquez RIGHT 0.277 0.235 0.071 20.0% 0.0% 28.6% 50.0% P $7,400 P $9,200 P $15,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Aaron Altherr, Tommy Joseph, Maikel Franco

Stackability – RED


Kansas City at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Kansas City NY Yankees
Article Image Miguel Almonte Article Image Masahiro Tanaka
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-181 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.294 0.301 32.0% 4.1% 19.7% 51.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.316 33.0% 5.8% 20.1% 45.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Miguel Almonte
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $9,300
Salary Rank: 23 of 24 Salary Rank: 23 of 24 Salary Rank: 20 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%

Almonte made nine appearances out of the bullpen in 2015, but will be making his first career major league start today against the Yankees. The Royals probably didn’t pick the best time to roll Almonte out for his major league debut, but I’m sure he will take whatever he can get. He has had a strikeout rate of at least 20% in each of his last three seasons in the minors, but has struggled with his command at times. It rarely hurts to take a wait and see approach in these situations, which is exactly what I will be doing with Almonte.

Quick Breakdown: Almonte can be avoided for now.

Masahiro Tanaka
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $9,700 Salary: $17,200
Salary Rank: 10 of 24 Salary Rank: 3 of 24 Salary Rank: 4 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.79 3.07 20.5% 4.5% 48.2% 32.5% 18.5%
2017 9 4.32 6.56 17.8% 6.9% 49.7% 32.7% 18.5%

Tanaka hasn’t been great this season, but his 6.56 ERA is partly due to some bad luck. He currently has a .329 BABIP and a 24% HR/FB rate, both of which are well above the major league averages. Tanaka’s velocity hasn’t changed since last year and he is actually generating more swings and misses (12.6%). Everyone wants to say that the sky is falling, but I’m not jumping ship just yet. He has some positive regression coming his way in both home runs and strikeouts. I see this as a great opportunity to buy low, both in terms of price and ownership.

Quick Breakdown: This may be a hot take, but Tanaka is my favorite pitcher in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals were blanked by Luis Severino and the Yankees last night and I’m expecting more of the same today against Masahiro Tanaka. Sure, he is coming off of two horrendous starts, but he’s not going to continue to give up a home run every four fly balls. The Royals do not hit right-handed pitching well and are huge underdogs in this game. Being so high on Tanaka could burn me, but I am doubling down by avoiding the Royals’ offense completely.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.265 0.250 0.078 20.9% 3.6% 16.1% 47.1% SS $2,200 SS $2,500 SS $4,400
2 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.354 0.364 0.260 36.4% 7.1% 14.6% 35.8% 3B $3,300 3B $3,800 3B $8,100
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.314 0.300 0.092 28.2% 7.5% 20.5% 49.8% OF $3,400 OF $3,400 CF $7,200
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.349 0.355 0.162 35.2% 10.0% 18.1% 57.0% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 1B $7,200
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.328 0.311 0.209 37.4% 3.6% 21.0% 34.2% C $3,400 C $3,900 C $7,200
6 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.365 0.357 0.200 31.6% 8.9% 23.2% 34.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 RF $7,600
7 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.325 0.339 0.283 39.9% 9.8% 31.1% 26.2% 1B $2,800 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
8 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.279 0.285 0.116 31.8% 4.6% 20.7% 42.9% 2B $2,800 2B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.293 0.319 0.140 35.6% 10.4% 27.1% 39.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 LF $7,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

We never really know what to expect from pitchers that are making their first career major league starts. There are some exceptions, but generally they don’t pan out as well as the pitchers dream they will. The Yankees have struggled with elite pitchers this season, but has mashed average to below-average starters. They didn’t have the big outing that we were expecting them to last night, but they have a chance for redemption here. A Yankees’ stack is firmly in play for both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.346 0.323 0.139 28.8% 12.9% 16.8% 49.0% OF $3,700 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
2 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.433 0.389 0.317 40.0% 8.7% 22.2% 51.0% C $3,200 C $4,500 C $9,000
3 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.338 0.346 0.198 35.3% 9.3% 21.0% 52.2% 1B $3,200 1B $4,000 IF/OF $8,000
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.330 0.308 0.171 30.8% 3.5% 19.2% 49.5% 2B $3,400 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
5 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.398 0.392 0.315 49.1% 10.2% 34.1% 42.0% OF $4,100 OF $5,000 RF $9,200
6 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.322 0.322 0.161 32.1% 10.6% 26.4% 43.6% 3B $2,700 3B $3,300 3B $6,600
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.306 0.263 0.167 25.1% 3.4% 15.7% 41.5% SS $3,200 SS $3,800 SS $7,200
8 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.336 0.308 0.155 23.8% 12.6% 17.8% 48.3% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 CF $8,400
9 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.335 0.349 0.248 39.5% 11.5% 34.3% 30.1% 1B $2,900 1B $3,700 1B $7,800

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro, Chase Headley, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – GREEN


LA Angels at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

LA Angels Tampa Bay
Article Image Daniel Wright Article Image Matt Andriese
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -132 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.389 0.367 37.0% 6.9% 11.8% 41.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 0.307 36.5% 6.5% 20.9% 43.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.389 0.388 33.3% 5.3% 12.1% 36.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.336 0.324 36.6% 5.5% 21.0% 44.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Daniel Wright
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 23 of 24 Salary Rank: 21 of 24 Salary Rank: 19 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 7 5.04 6.13 11.7% 4.5% 38.7% 38.6% 17.2%
2017 1 5.47 5.54 12.7% 10.9% 39.0% 22.0% 14.6%

Wright is making his second start of the season and his eighth in the last two years. He has not had success at the major league level. He is a fly-ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate. His teammate, Jered Weaver, knows as well as anyone that that specific combination doesn’t produce good results.

Quick Breakdown: It doesn’t matter the opponent, Wright should be avoided in all formats.

Matt Andriese
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 13 of 24 Salary Rank: 12 of 24 Salary Rank: 11 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 3.90 4.37 20.7% 4.7% 42.9% 34.3% 16.6%
2017 9 4.15 3.75 21.8% 8.8% 47.3% 42.6% 14.9%

Andriese biggest weakness is that he allows a ton of hard and medium contact. Other than that, his numbers aren’t half bad. In nine starts this season, he has a 4.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a ground ball rate of 47%. Those numbers are certainly viable when talking about a cheap value pitcher. His matchup against the low-strikeout Angels isn’t ideal, but he gets to face them at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Andriese is viable as an SP2 in cash games or as an SP1 in tournaments in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Matt Andriese isn’t a bad pitcher by any means, but he’s not someone that we should automatically fade hitters against. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .324 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Mike Trout is good at baseball and should be treated as such. He has a massive .432 xwOBA against righties in the last two seasons. Luis Valbuena is also an interesting value play at his price point.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.334 0.294 0.094 22.5% 11.0% 17.4% 63.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,600 CF $9,000
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.435 0.432 0.280 41.1% 16.9% 20.9% 39.5% OF $5,000 OF $5,500 CF $10,800
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.317 0.362 0.160 35.1% 7.7% 13.2% 44.4% 1B $2,800 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
4 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.344 0.331 0.205 36.9% 14.2% 25.2% 36.6% 3B $2,400 1B/3B $3,200 3B $6,400
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.302 0.305 0.089 27.2% 6.1% 9.2% 54.9% SS $3,100 SS $3,700 SS $7,600
6 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.327 0.339 0.154 34.4% 9.7% 18.8% 38.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
7 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.278 0.295 0.131 28.7% 10.7% 22.1% 46.5% C $2,500 C $2,500 C $4,500
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.282 0.284 0.140 31.1% 9.8% 30.1% 38.7% 2B $2,200 2B $3,100 2B $5,700
9 Cliff Pennington SWITCH 0.284 0.277 0.089 25.6% 9.3% 26.6% 38.1% SS $2,300 2B/SS $2,100 2B $4,000

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Luis Valbuena

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

Daniel Wright is a right-handed pitcher that struggles with all kinds of hitters. Left-handed, right-handed, no-handed, it doesn’t matter. In his last eight major league starts, he has allowed a .367+ xwOBA and a 33%+ hard contact rate to batters from both sides of the plate. This is a perfect matchup for Tampa Bay because their biggest weakness is that they are prone to strikeouts. That shouldn’t be a problem against Wright, who has a k-rate under 13%. A Ray’s stack is viable in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.356 0.325 0.276 33.3% 6.6% 22.5% 34.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.314 0.290 0.142 29.8% 10.0% 18.1% 46.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 CF $6,300
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.356 0.355 0.249 37.2% 5.9% 20.7% 34.1% 3B $2,800 3B $4,000 3B $8,100
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.332 0.360 0.221 37.4% 10.0% 22.9% 42.2% 1B $3,700 1B $4,100 1B $8,700
5 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.311 0.304 0.206 42.8% 3.8% 31.5% 38.9% SS $2,900 SS $2,900 SS $5,700
6 Colby Rasmus LEFT 0.305 0.308 0.174 36.4% 10.6% 29.9% 38.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 LF $6,600
7 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.328 0.305 0.174 30.9% 9.0% 31.8% 41.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,200 RF $6,800
8 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.253 0.270 0.138 31.5% 7.0% 32.1% 33.9% C $2,700 C $2,800 C $6,000
9 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.330 0.296 0.125 29.6% 14.6% 29.2% 48.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,600 SS $5,200

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Colby Rasmus

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious