MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-04-26 02:22:37

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Houston at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Houston						Cleveland
			Dallas Keuchel						Josh Tomlin
			LEFT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-110						8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.245	25.2%	3.7%	20.1%	62.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.297	37.5%	2.4%	14.8%	48.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.320	29.3%	7.5%	20.8%	57.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.361	32.0%	3.1%	17.0%	41.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dallas Keuchel
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	26	3.77	4.55	20.5%	6.9%	56.7%	29.8%	21.1%
	2017	4	2.83	0.96	21.4%	5.8%	70.0%	18.9%	31.1%

This is the only game that starts before 7:00 PM ET tonight, so must of you can just scroll down to the next game. However, if you are dipping your toes in the all-day or turbo slate, stay with me. Keuchel has looked great so far this season and many of us so it coming. His ERA from a year ago was not indicative of his skill level, which is why there was such a large difference between that and his SIERA. Keuchel induces an elite ground ball rate (usually close to 60%) and he has a slightly above-average strikeout rate to go with it. While I’m a Keuchel fan, there are plenty of pitchers in the all-day slate. We don’t need to take on unnecessary risk by taking a pitcher against the Indians.

Quick Breakdown: Viable in tournaments in the all-day slate and in cash games in the turbo slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Josh Tomlin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	29	4.24	4.40	16.3%	2.8%	43.8%	33.9%	16.4%
	2017	3	3.89	11.68	13.1%	3.3%	53.1%	40.0%	10.0%

Tomlin is a pitcher that I have picked on a lot more often than I have picked in DFS. He is a low strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact to left-handed hitters. He has good command, but that hasn’t helped him in the art of the strikeout or in the art of keeping runs off the board. Tomlin is an easy fade against an Astros’ offense that has all nine projected starters with a .333+ wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: More risk than reward here.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The way I see it, the only reason to play the all-day or the turbo slate is to get exposure to the Astros’ offense. Josh Tomlin is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a 40% hard contact rate this season. Hitters from both sides of the plate are worth a look, as Tomlin has allowed a higher hard contact rate to lefties (37.5%) and a higher wOBA to righties (.361) in the last two seasons. The first seven hitters in this lineup are all in play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.333	0.175	30.8%	10.9%	24.3%	50.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,900
2	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.367	0.167	32.7%	9.0%	11.6%	39.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,300
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.395	0.189	33.0%	7.6%	9.5%	42.6%	2B	$4,200	2B	$5,100
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.352	0.184	36.6%	10.0%	21.3%	50.3%	SS	$3,500	SS	$5,000
5	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.337	0.200	32.4%	5.9%	17.0%	46.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,500
6	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.334	0.187	30.8%	7.6%	22.3%	33.6%	3B	$3,100	3B/SS	$4,700
7	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.337	0.173	38.2%	11.3%	18.8%	33.0%	C	$3,000	C	$4,000
8	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.365	0.156	27.3%	4.6%	9.9%	47.7%	3B	$2,800	1B	$3,900
9	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.350	0.129	21.4%	7.1%	8.7%	56.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,100

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Carlos Beltran, Alex Bregman, Brian McCann

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cleveland

Try to think of everything that we are looking to exploit in a matchup. We want a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, a high hard contact rate, and preferably a higher fly-ball than ground ball rate. Dallas Keuchel is the exact opposite. Even though the Indians hit left-handed pitching well and even though they are playing at home, they are an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.321	0.131	30.2%	11.4%	9.6%	55.3%	1B	$3,700	1B/OF	$4,600
2	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.326	0.138	31.5%	6.7%	15.7%	45.9%	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,400
3	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.314	0.077	47.4%	6.9%	27.6%	42.1%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,700
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.375	0.236	40.2%	19.1%	21.3%	39.2%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,700
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.350	0.146	34.1%	7.6%	12.3%	42.8%	3B	$3,900	2B/3B	$4,200
6	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.339	0.180	28.9%	6.4%	24.9%	42.5%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,500
7	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.408	0.205	28.8%	5.1%	11.9%	35.2%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300
8	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.261	0.085	43.5%	10.4%	20.9%	44.4%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100
9	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.339	0.197	22.4%	6.0%	23.8%	42.1%	C	$2,300	C	$3,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Miami						Philadelphia
			Wei-Yin Chen						Vince Velasquez
			LEFT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-105						7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.319	30.0%	3.9%	18.3%	45.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.352	33.7%	10.5%	26.6%	36.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	35.2%	4.8%	18.9%	38.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.315	31.6%	7.1%	28.6%	35.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Wei-Yin Chen
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30
	2016	22	4.14	4.96	19.2%	4.6%	40.5%	35.1%	15.8%
	2017	3	4.49	3.94	15.4%	4.6%	35.4%	27.5%	21.6%

I wonder if Chen trained with Francisco Liriano in the offseason, because he is starting to resemble him on the mound. I’m not even talking about their pitching profiles, I’m talking about their game logs. Chen’s first three outings have produced the following: 40, 0, and 37 fantasy points (FD scoring). This isn’t a slate like last night where we have to pick a subpar pitcher and hope for the best. There are plenty of good pitching options to choose from, which makes the Chen against the Phillies fade an easy one.

Quick Breakdown: I’m more interested in the Phillies’ offense than I am in Chen.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Vince Velasquez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$18,000
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30
	2016	24	3.62	4.12	27.6%	8.2%	34.8%	32.6%	18.4%
	2017	3	4.09	7.20	27.5%	14.5%	46.2%	33.3%	15.4%

The Marlins may not be as bad as the White Sox, but they are an offense that we can pick on regularly when it comes to pitching. Velasquez has had a strikeout rate of at least 27% in each of the last two seasons, which makes up for the walks and runs that he allows. I know FanDuel is a single pitcher site and I know we want to play Clayton Kershaw, but Velasquez is an elite strikeout pitcher in a favorable matchup at home and he is only $7,500.

Quick Breakdown: Elite GPP play, especially on FanDuel.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Vince Velasquez splits are pretty straightforward. He allows a higher wOBA (.352), hard contact rate (33.7%), and walk rate (10.5%) to left-handed hitters than he does to right-handed hitters. Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich have two of the highest ground ball rates of any lefties in baseball, but this is actually a decent matchup, as Velasquez is a fly-ball pitcher. These two are deep tournament fliers, but far from core plays tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.294	0.074	19.4%	5.2%	16.4%	57.2%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,000
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.304	0.106	25.9%	5.9%	11.0%	49.4%	3B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,400	3B	$6,600
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.382	0.215	42.0%	12.3%	20.3%	54.8%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.334	0.235	39.3%	9.3%	29.9%	38.5%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,600	RF	$8,800
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.326	0.176	36.7%	7.2%	20.0%	46.4%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
6	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.352	0.123	30.8%	5.3%	15.8%	50.9%	C	$2,700	C	$3,500	C	$6,900
7	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.343	0.224	36.1%	12.4%	17.1%	43.6%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,300
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.252	0.067	29.4%	5.1%	12.0%	48.6%	SS	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,600	SS	$5,200
9	Wei-Yin Chen	LEFT	0.024	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	35.0%	78.9%	P	$8,400	P	$7,600	P	$15,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

The Phillies are a sneaky offense to target in this slate and one that will have little to no ownership in cash games or tournaments. Wei-Yin Chen has really struggled against right-handed hitters, allowing a .332 wOBA, a 35.2% hard contact rate, and 23 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. You can target the righties in this lineup as one-off targets or combine them in a mini-Phillies’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.351	0.089	23.6%	7.6%	20.5%	58.6%	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
2	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.318	0.176	32.4%	8.8%	24.6%	51.4%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,800
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.284	0.057	20.3%	10.7%	22.5%	61.7%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
4	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.339	0.217	36.4%	5.8%	16.8%	45.8%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,000
5	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.353	0.250	31.7%	9.7%	20.4%	34.2%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,600
6	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.393	0.292	31.3%	7.5%	27.6%	49.4%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,900
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.229	0.106	24.8%	1.2%	18.7%	39.1%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,600
8	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.388	0.286	39.6%	6.1%	29.3%	49.1%	C	$2,400	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
9	Vince Velasquez	RIGHT	0.333	0.111	40.0%	0.0%	44.4%	60.0%	P	$7,500	P	$9,300	P	$18,000

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez (FD), Aaron Altherr, Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs						Pittsburgh
			Kyle Hendricks						Gerrit Cole
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-125						7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.283	25.7%	6.2%	21.5%	48.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.380	38.2%	6.9%	23.3%	38.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.244	28.2%	6.3%	23.3%	49.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.290	25.6%	6.9%	15.7%	50.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Hendricks
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$19,600
	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	2016	30	3.70	2.13	22.8%	5.9%	48.4%	25.8%	25.1%
	2017	3	4.27	6.19	18.8%	10.1%	54.2%	40.8%	24.5%

Hendricks has already given up 11 earned runs this season, but he’s had to face the red-hot Brewers two times. His other start was against the Pirates, who he gets to face again tonight. A deeper dive into his stats reveals a decline in velocity (2-3 MPH off of his fastball) and a swinging strike rate of only 6.6% this season. Those are both concerning, even though Hendricks doesn’t rely on overpowering hitters for strikeouts. Until he can flash some form, he is a deep tournament play at best.

Quick Breakdown: Needs to flash some form before he deserves serious consideration.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gerrit Cole
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$16,400
	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30
	2016	21	4.24	3.88	19.4%	7.1%	45.6%	30.1%	21.3%
	2017	4	3.94	4.70	19.0%	6.0%	44.4%	37.3%	16.0%

Cole has gotten better in each and every start this season. Against the Cardinals in his last outing, he struck out eight batters in six innings of work. He’s always had the tools to be an elite pitcher, he just hasn’t developed that go-to pitch with two strikes. He is capable of dominating any opposing lineup, but we don’t need to take the risk in such a full slate. The Cubs’ offense scored 14 runs in this ballpark last night.

Quick Breakdown: This seems like a night to pay up or pay down at pitcher. I’m not a fan of the mid-range options.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

In case you didn’t know, the Cubs’ offense is pretty good. They scored ten runs in the first three innings last night against the Pirates and cruised to another big win. Everyone is going to see their opponent (Gerrit Cole) and the ballpark (PNC Park) and think to fade Chicago, but the left-handed hitters are firmly in play. Since the start of last season, Cole has allowed a .380 wOBA with a 38.2% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.307	0.158	42.9%	11.9%	32.8%	44.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,100
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.366	0.221	38.6%	9.8%	22.9%	30.3%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,800	IF/OF	$9,200
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.399	0.263	37.6%	11.7%	17.1%	35.4%	1B	$4,500	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,300
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.355	0.180	32.9%	16.0%	11.7%	46.9%	2B	$3,000	2B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
5	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.306	0.156	27.6%	7.8%	21.7%	41.9%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,600
6	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.298	0.106	27.6%	8.2%	14.3%	45.8%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,100	RF	$6,000
7	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.349	0.200	32.4%	10.2%	27.8%	52.4%	C	$3,100	C	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,600
8	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.165	0.000	6.9%	0.0%	43.4%	59.1%	P	$8,500	P	$10,200	P	$19,600
9	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.297	0.150	28.8%	1.4%	27.4%	44.5%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,500	3B	$6,900

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo (Cash), Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Kyle Hendricks is a good example of the debate we constantly have to have in DFS. Is current or long-term form more important? He has not pitched well this season, but has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA in the last two seasons. There isn’t a clear answer one way or another and with so many options, I will likely be avoiding both Hendricks and the Pirates’ offense. I will note that Gregory Polanco is 8-for-19 with three extra-base hits and four stolen bases against Hendricks in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.290	0.088	26.2%	3.6%	14.1%	45.5%	2B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,300	2B	$6,600
2	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.357	0.155	33.1%	14.3%	13.7%	48.8%	1B	$2,500	1B	$2,900	IF/OF	$5,600
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.328	0.170	35.5%	9.3%	21.8%	35.9%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,000
4	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.326	0.190	35.5%	9.1%	17.6%	39.5%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,800
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.323	0.135	32.2%	8.6%	27.1%	59.2%	3B	$2,500	3B	$2,900	3B	$5,700
6	John Jaso	LEFT	0.335	0.144	29.5%	10.4%	16.6%	51.0%	1B	$2,100	1B/OF	$2,800	1B	$5,400
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.308	0.092	26.4%	13.1%	18.4%	54.2%	C	$2,700	C	$2,900	C	$5,700
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.288	0.095	24.4%	7.6%	14.6%	50.3%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,600
9	Gerrit Cole	RIGHT	0.133	0.000	5.3%	0.0%	45.7%	81.3%	P	$8,800	P	$8,500	P	$16,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay						Baltimore
			Erasmo Ramirez						Wade Miley
			RIGHT						LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-155						8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.359	32.0%	9.9%	13.0%	43.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.289	36.7%	8.3%	20.5%	52.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.287	24.3%	4.1%	19.3%	57.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	32.7%	7.0%	20.6%	46.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Erasmo Ramirez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$4,400	Salary:		$8,700
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30
	2016	1	4.10	3.77	16.7%	6.9%	52.5%	26.3%	19.3%
	2017	1	3.23	3.07	18.9%	1.9%	47.6%	33.3%	21.4%

Ramirez pitched well in his first start of the season, but owns a career 4.11 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 18.3%. He doesn’t exactly fit the mold of what we are looking for in a pitcher and he draws an awful matchup on top of it. The Orioles’ offense is loaded with power hitters against right-handed pitching and Ramirez has to face them on the road in the hitter-friendly confines of Camden Yards.

Quick Breakdown: I like his first name, but not his upside.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Wade Miley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,600
	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30
	2016	30	4.21	5.37	19.3%	6.9%	47.3%	33.3%	17.3%
	2017	3	3.00	1.89	33.3%	11.1%	48.7%	35.9%	15.4%

If Miley continues to burn me, so be it. If you’ve won money with him this season, I applaud you, but will not be joining you tonight. His velocity and swinging strike rates are nearly identical to where they were a year ago and I hate to say it, but his .192 BABIP isn’t sustainable. Could he pitch well again tonight? Sure, but I’m not exactly bullish on Miley in the long run. The Rays may strikeout at a high rate against southpaws, but they have scored more runs than any team in the American League this season.

Quick Breakdown: I see the appeal, but Miley is not for me in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

If we trust the larger sample here, then there is some appeal in the right-handed bats on the Rays. In the last two seasons, Wade Miley has allowed a .347 wOBA and a 32.7% hard contact rate to righties. Steven Souza, Evan Longoria, Rickie Weeks, and Tim Beckham all have good power numbers against southpaws and they see a ballpark bump playing in Camden Yards.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.306	0.164	34.9%	6.0%	36.2%	38.4%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,000
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.350	0.160	30.8%	11.0%	23.6%	41.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,000
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.313	0.194	35.3%	8.5%	22.0%	32.8%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,900	3B	$9,600
4	Rickie Weeks	RIGHT	0.400	0.346	52.7%	13.3%	25.6%	38.2%	OF	$2,200	1B	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,400
5	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.313	0.173	33.3%	9.2%	26.2%	45.5%	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,300	SS	$8,400
6	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.337	0.170	35.3%	7.7%	33.3%	51.5%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,900
7	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.274	0.122	41.6%	9.3%	21.3%	31.7%	C	$3,000	C	$3,300	C	$6,600
8	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.381	0.091	40.0%	8.3%	8.3%	40.0%	SS	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,900	SS	$5,600
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.289	0.053	24.3%	5.9%	20.8%	45.2%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,600

Elite Plays – Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Steve Souza, Rickie Weeks, Tim Beckham

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

Even though Erasmo Ramirez has only made two starts in the last two seasons, he made 64 appearances out of the bullpen a year ago, so the sample size on his splits is big enough to trust. He has allowed a .359 wOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to lefties. His walk rate, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate are all worse against lefties than they are against righties. I’m not saying that we can’t play the righties from the Orioles, but I’m trying to highlight the great spot for Seth Smith and Chris Davis.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.345	0.187	34.0%	11.3%	20.0%	46.6%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.340	0.195	33.5%	5.9%	15.9%	44.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500	CF	$8,700
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.353	0.243	35.1%	6.4%	18.8%	36.5%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,800	3B	$9,300
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.355	0.267	42.7%	14.1%	33.0%	36.8%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,200
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.382	0.285	38.0%	8.1%	24.8%	38.8%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,000
6	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.304	0.125	34.9%	6.1%	27.3%	40.0%	C	$3,000	C	$3,800	C	$7,600
7	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.358	0.120	30.4%	9.5%	14.5%	52.9%	OF	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,200
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.335	0.205	28.1%	2.8%	19.7%	43.0%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,600
9	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.294	0.125	30.8%	4.2%	17.4%	44.8%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,400

Elite Plays – Seth Smith, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Hyun-Soo Kim

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta						NY Mets
			Julio Teheran						Robert Gsellman
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-130						7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.333	32.7%	9.9%	15.4%	34.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.250	32.4%	9.2%	30.3%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.241	30.9%	2.7%	27.2%	42.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	29.0%	6.9%	17.9%	56.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Julio Teheran
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$19,500
	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30
	2016	30	3.93	3.21	22.0%	5.4%	39.1%	33.1%	17.7%
	2017	4	4.83	3.52	18.4%	11.2%	30.8%	20.9%	19.4%

Teheran is off to a slow start this season. In four starts, he has a 4.83 SIERA with a below-average strikeout rate. He doesn’t have great numbers on the road in his career and he comes into tonight’s game as an underdog against the Mets. Teheran is a pitcher that needs to throw strikes early in the count and until he can improve his command, I will be avoiding him in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Teheran struggles with lefties and the Mets will have five or six of them in their lineup.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Robert Gsellman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$13,800
	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30
	2016	7	3.76	2.42	22.7%	8.1%	54.2%	28.4%	18.1%
	2017	3	3.10	5.09	25.3%	7.6%	54.0%	35.3%	21.6%

Gsellman may have an ERA over 5.00 this season, but that’s largely thanks to a .327 BABIP and a 51.7% left on-base percentage. Both of those will certainly improve moving forward. He has an above-average strikeout rate, he is underpriced across the industry, and he is facing a weak Braves’ offense at home. If he can pitch around Freddie Freeman, he may end up being the best value pitcher in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Viable as an SP2 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The sample size is still fairly small (ten starts), but Robert Gsellman has held left-handed hitters to a .250 wOBA, while striking them out at a 30% clip. Even if we give those numbers some leeway, this is far from an ideal matchup for Freddie Freeman and company. In this pitcher-friendly ballpark, the Braves’ offense can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.312	0.116	26.1%	7.8%	13.7%	43.9%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900
2	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.335	0.129	28.7%	3.1%	11.5%	47.4%	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,200	2B	$6,300
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.422	0.306	43.3%	15.3%	22.4%	27.4%	1B	$4,400	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.328	0.223	37.2%	5.2%	24.2%	39.2%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.340	0.154	33.5%	11.6%	16.1%	40.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,600
6	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.291	0.121	30.4%	6.0%	11.6%	42.2%	C	$2,300	C	$2,300	C	$4,500
7	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.319	0.127	24.5%	13.4%	17.0%	57.6%	2B	$2,200	OF	$2,900	2B	$5,600
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.265	0.092	31.8%	6.9%	24.9%	43.0%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000
9	Julio Teheran	RIGHT	0.191	0.021	14.3%	0.0%	27.6%	40.0%	P	$8,500	P	$10,000	P	$19,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Julio Teheran makes my job easy – target lefties and avoid the righties. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .333 wOBA and a 32.7% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters, while also allowing a 9.9% walk rate. This isn’t a spot where I want to stack the Mets, but you can certainly look at a few of the lefties as one-off targets in tournaments. Oh, and Jay Bruce is still too cheap on DraftKings ($3,400).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.336	0.226	36.0%	12.8%	19.8%	35.4%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.339	0.196	35.0%	6.8%	18.2%	35.6%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,900
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.354	0.243	38.2%	8.4%	20.2%	36.4%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,100
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.373	0.292	39.7%	8.9%	20.1%	35.9%	OF	$3,600	1B/OF	$3,400	RF	$6,800
5	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.320	0.163	34.4%	9.8%	19.5%	35.8%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,800
6	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.361	0.246	42.0%	11.0%	24.2%	36.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,400
7	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.262	0.112	23.2%	6.8%	20.1%	35.6%	3B	$2,100	3B	$3,800	SS	$7,600
8	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.277	0.084	32.3%	6.1%	17.1%	51.4%	C	$2,600	C	$2,800	C	$5,400
9	Robert Gsellman	RIGHT	0.103	0.000	40.0%	0.0%	47.4%	50.0%	P	$7,700	P	$7,000	P	$13,800

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 25th

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Stackability Rating System:

Houston at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Carlos Beltran, Alex Bregman, Brian McCann

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez (FD), Aaron Altherr, Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo (Cash), Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Steve Souza, Rickie Weeks, Tim Beckham

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Seth Smith, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Hyun-Soo Kim

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jay Bruce (DK)

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce (FD), Michael Conforto

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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