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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-31 02:10:58

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Toronto Baltimore
torontomlb J.A. Happ baltimoremlb Ubaldo Jimenez
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -148 10.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.289 5 34.0% 24.1% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.344 21 30.9% 21.0%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.301 29 30.9% 20.9% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.336 11 26.4% 19.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

J.A. Happ
j.a.-happ-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $9,300
FPPG: 36.9 FPPG: 19.1
Pitcher Rating: 75.9 Pitcher Rank: 7
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 93.2 2.89 2.87 32.2% 6.6% 13.5% 46.6% 32.9% 31.1%
2016 25 94.4 4.04 3.19 22.2% 7.2% 10.2% 42.9% 35.2% 32.0%
2015 31 91.6 3.82 3.61 21.1% 6.3% 8.1% 41.6% 34.1% 31.2%

Home:—ERA: 2.81 — K%: 22.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.292
Away:—ERA: 3.99 — K%: 21.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.304

Happ comes into tonight’s start in excellent form, posting a 2.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32.2% in his last five starts. He has been better at home this season, but his road numbers aren’t terrible. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup tonight against the Orioles in Camden Yards. We know that their offense is loaded with power, but they are ranked 27th in team wOBA and 22nd in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. The matchup is enough to fade Happ in cash games, but he is worth a look as a low-owned tournament play.

Ubaldo Jimenez
ubaldo-jimenez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 17.2 FPPG: 7.0
Pitcher Rating: 46.3 Pitcher Rank: 22
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 1 90.0 4.81 3.86 19.0% 10.3% 7.9% 36.6% 51.2% 14.6%
2016 19 97.8 4.98 6.62 19.0% 12.3% 8.1% 47.1% 32.6% 31.1%
2015 32 95.6 3.93 4.11 21.2% 8.6% 8.0% 49.1% 28.8% 27.0%

Home:—ERA: 4.92 — K%: 20.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.328
Away:—ERA: 5.07 — K%: 20.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.350

Jimenez is not having a great season, posting a 6.62 ERA (4.98 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 12.3%. He has done a great job of limiting hard contact out of the bullpen, but not as a starter. He will have an extremely tough time trying to limit the hard contact tonight against the Blue Jays, who are ranked ninth in team wOBA and fourth in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. As a large underdog at home, Jimenez can be avoided in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have been a top ten offense against right-handed pitching this season and get to face the struggling Ubaldo Jimenez in a hitter-friendly ballpark. They come into the game with the fourth highest run projection in the slate and once again, we can stack the Jays in cash games or GPPs. It’s going to be tough to fade Josh Donaldson in cash games tonight. He has six home runs in his last five games.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.378 0.274 36.9% 0.390 OF $3,800 OF $4,900
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.394 0.262 37.9% 0.530 3B $4,400 3B $5,400
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.394 0.291 36.0% 0.386 1B $4,200 1B $5,200
4 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.328 0.196 30.4% 0.467 C $3,200 C $4,500
5 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.323 0.178 34.4% 0.390 SS $3,200 SS $4,400
6 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.335 0.191 36.8% 0.336 OF $3,300 OF $4,400
7 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.298 0.127 25.7% 0.330 OF $2,800 OF $3,900
8 Melvin Upton RIGHT 0.290 0.151 32.2% 0.387 OF $3,500 OF $4,300
9 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.362 0.188 28.2% 0.293 2B $3,500 2B $4,200
Team Averages — 0.345 0.206 33.2% 0.390 — — — —

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Saunders

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles were unable to get anything going against Marco Estrada last night at home. Their matchup isn’t going to be any easier tonight, as they have been a bottom ten offense against left-handed pitching this season. J.A. Happ comes into the game in great form, although he hasn’t pitched nearly as well on the road as he has at home. You can look at the right-handed hitters here, as Happ has allowed 29 home runs to batters from that side of the plate in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.286 0.147 30.0% 0.284 OF $3,400 OF $3,600
2 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.329 0.206 34.8% 0.389 OF $3,300 1B/2B $3,700
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.346 0.181 33.3% 0.390 3B $4,000 3B/SS $5,000
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.326 0.246 37.3% 0.411 OF $3,500 OF $4,400
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.341 0.204 34.9% 0.454 1B $3,500 1B $4,100
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.283 0.133 25.2% 0.293 2B $3,200 2B $3,300
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.280 0.122 33.0% 0.236 C $2,800 C $2,700
8 Nolan Reimold RIGHT 0.295 0.120 27.2% 0.309 OF $2,200 OF $2,400
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.254 0.091 31.1% 0.282 SS $2,400 SS $2,300
Team Averages — 0.304 0.161 31.9% 0.339 — — — —

Elite Plays – Steve Pearce

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Washington Philadelphia
washingtonmlb Max Scherzer philadelphiamlb Jerad Eickhoff
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -210 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.294 26 29.3% 26.6% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.344 18 32.0% 16.6%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.221 26 27.7% 36.5% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.267 9 33.1% 25.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $11,200 Salary: $13,600
FPPG: 45.1 FPPG: 25.9
Pitcher Rating: 98.7 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 103.3 3.35 2.90 29.5% 5.8% 15.2% 31.0% 56.0% 38.6%
2016 27 105.0 3.00 2.92 32.0% 6.2% 15.2% 34.0% 48.6% 29.3%
2015 33 101.8 2.63 2.79 30.7% 3.8% 15.3% 35.8% 45.4% 28.1%

Home:—ERA: 2.98 — K%: 31.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.252
Away:—ERA: 2.74 — K%: 31.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.266

Scherzer is coming off of another dominant performance. In eight shutout innings against the Orioles, he struck out ten batters and only allowed two baserunners the entire game. He is the top pitching option in tonight’s slate and it’s not very close. He draws a favorable matchup against the Phillies, who are ranked 28th in team wOBA and 22nd in team K% against right-handed pitching this season. He should also see some run support with the way the Nationals have been swinging their bats recently.

Jerad Eickhoff
jerad-eickhoff-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,200
FPPG: 29.4 FPPG: 15.2
Pitcher Rating: 57.0 Pitcher Rank: 16
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 82.6 4.65 4.08 16.5% 3.5% 8.5% 32.2% 48.9% 29.4%
2016 26 93.5 4.13 3.87 20.0% 5.4% 9.5% 41.5% 38.1% 31.4%
2015 8 92.4 3.56 2.65 24.1% 6.4% 10.4% 37.9% 40.0% 36.2%

Home:—ERA: 2.98 — K%: 23.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.300
Away:—ERA: 4.15 — K%: 18.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.315

Eickhoff hasn’t been sharp in his last five starts, posting a 4.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.5%. During that stretch, he had a fly ball rate close to 50%. That could be problematic against a potent Nationals’ lineup, especially in this ballpark. While Eickhoff does have some great splits at home, the risk outweighs the potential reward here. There is a good chance that he sees little to no run support with Max Scherzer pitching opposite him.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals haven’t had that big offensive outing for a while, but it’s only a matter of time. They see a favorable ballpark shift tonight playing in Citizens Bank Park and they draw a decent matchup against Jerad Eickhoff. In the last two seasons, Eickhoff has allowed a .344 wOBA, 18 home runs, and a 32% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.371 0.213 33.9% 0.402 OF $4,100 2B/OF $5,000
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.299 0.144 34.6% 0.336 OF $3,800 OF $3,700
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.381 0.234 36.0% 0.406 2B $4,200 2B $5,300
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.433 0.294 36.8% 0.420 OF $4,100 OF $5,500
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.331 0.158 37.0% 0.409 3B $3,600 3B $4,000
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.308 0.146 30.6% 0.217 C $3,000 C $3,600
7 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.286 0.159 32.8% 0.214 1B $3,100 1B $3,000
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.306 0.160 30.3% 0.346 SS $3,000 SS $3,300
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.190 0.011 14.7% 0.251 P $11,200 P $13,600
Team Averages — 0.323 0.169 31.9% 0.333 — — — —

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw by far the most difficult matchup on the schedule tonight. Max Scherzer has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in each of the last three seasons. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, he holds both left and right-handed hitters in check. Scherzer will give up a solo home run every now and then, but that’s not enough justification to target any Phillies’ hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.310 0.106 26.2% 0.440 2B $2,700 2B $3,900
2 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.348 0.147 29.8% 0.276 OF $2,500 OF $3,400
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.322 0.185 27.9% 0.293 3B $2,500 3B $3,100
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.327 0.265 38.3% 0.345 1B $2,300 1B $3,200
5 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.347 0.218 33.6% 0.258 OF $2,700 OF $3,300
6 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.295 0.148 29.5% 0.213 C $2,600 C $2,700
7 Jimmy Paredes SWITCH 0.321 0.173 31.5% 0.250 OF $2,300 OF $2,100
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.291 0.135 28.2% 0.373 SS $2,400 SS $3,300
9 Jerad Eickhoff RIGHT 0.202 0.064 10.5% 0.000 P $8,000 P $7,200
Team Averages — 0.307 0.160 28.4% 0.272 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Detroit
whitesoxmlb Anthony Ranaudo detroitmlb Daniel Norris
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -181 10.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.331 5 30.9% 16.8% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.376 6 33.3% 20.8%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.410 3 31.4% 8.6% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.314 7 27.9% 17.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Anthony Ranaudo
anthony-ranaudo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 8.2 FPPG: 1.8
Pitcher Rating: 24.8 Pitcher Rank: 30
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 2 92.0 4.94 10.61 13.3% 6.7% 5.4% 50.0% 36.1% 38.9%
2016 3 90.3 6.59 9.61 12.0% 16.3% 5.9% 46.2% 43.1% 34.9%
2015 2 90.5 5.24 7.63 15.1% 11.0% 5.5% 29.4% 47.1% 26.4%

Home:—ERA: 13.86 — K%: 11.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.363
Away:—ERA: 5.96 — K%: 14.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.366

How many favorable matchups in a row can the Tigers have before they finally break out offensively? After facing the gas can that is James Shields last night, they draw an equally favorable matchup against Ranaudo tonight. In his last two seasons combined, he has an ERA over 8.00 with a walk rate that is higher than his strikeout rate. He gives up a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard contact. Unless you are playing in a lowball league, you do not want Ranaudo in your lineups tonight.

Daniel Norris
daniel-norris-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,600
FPPG: 21.6 FPPG: 10.4
Pitcher Rating: 55.8 Pitcher Rank: 17
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 87.5 4.99 2.91 13.4% 8.3% 7.1% 48.7% 27.6% 32.9%
2016 7 81.4 4.42 3.63 18.6% 7.1% 7.4% 42.2% 33.6% 30.2%
2015 13 79.6 4.45 3.75 17.9% 7.6% 9.2% 39.3% 43.2% 28.7%

Home:—ERA: 4.95 — K%: 18.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.362
Away:—ERA: 2.93 — K%: 18.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.309

Norris has a 2.91 ERA in his last four starts, but that doesn’t tell the entire story. During that stretch, he has a 4.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13.4%. I like his chances of getting the win tonight, but that requires that he pitches at least five innings. That’s certainly in question, as his numbers suggest some regression and he’s not a pitcher that throws more than 85-90 pitches in the first place. I will be avoiding both of the pitchers in what I expect to be a high scoring game.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have a mediocre run projection tonight, as they square off against Daniel Norris in Comerica Park. This isn’t the best matchup in the slate, but it is certainly an exploitable one. The main issue here is that Norris is a massive reverse-splits pitcher, allowing a .376 wOBA to left-handed hitters while holding right-handed hitters to a .314 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.305 0.062 23.8% 0.307 OF $3,200 OF $3,800
2 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.383 0.185 37.5% 0.399 SS $2,600 SS $4,000
3 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.297 0.123 27.3% 0.308 OF $3,300 OF $4,100
4 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.287 0.142 35.6% 0.435 1B $3,500 1B $4,100
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.363 0.332 36.7% 0.273 3B $3,700 3B $4,300
6 Justin Morneau LEFT 0.360 0.177 26.0% 0.293 1B $2,700 1B $3,200
7 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.330 0.145 33.8% 0.389 OF $2,700 OF $3,800
8 Alex Avila LEFT 0.275 0.100 17.4% 0.534 C $2,300 C $3,100
9 Tyler Saladino RIGHT 0.304 0.120 20.8% 0.376 SS $2,900 2B/SS $3,500
Team Averages — 0.323 0.154 28.8% 0.368 — — — —

Elite Plays – Tim Anderson (FD)

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Tim Anderson (DK), Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers salvaged their night with a two-run home run from Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Everyone is going to see the low run total last night and immediately say that the Tigers don’t show up in favorable matchups. While this may be true occasionally, they were hitting the ball extremely hard last night. In fact, if you look at hard contact rates over the last two weeks, the Tigers are near the top. You can fade the Tigers if you want, but I will be stacking them in cash games and GPPs tonight. They are my pancake stack of the night – oh how I love pancakes.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.320 0.092 21.6% 0.448 OF $3,000 OF $4,700
2 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.330 0.149 29.3% 0.208 2B $4,100 2B $3,900
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.402 0.221 40.0% 0.364 1B $4,200 1B $5,300
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.314 0.163 36.0% 0.370 C $3,600 1B $4,300
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.378 0.245 40.4% 0.423 OF $3,900 OF $4,700
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.336 0.202 36.2% 0.477 OF $3,200 OF $4,200
7 Casey McGehee RIGHT 0.220 0.065 21.8% 0.192 3B $2,100 3B $2,600
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.255 0.083 25.6% 0.366 C $2,700 C $3,500
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.278 0.052 14.5% 0.235 SS $2,200 SS $2,300
Team Averages — 0.315 0.141 29.5% 0.343 — — — —

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Cameron Maybin Collins”:/players/tyler-collins-15445

Stackability – GREEN

Miami at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Miami NY Mets
miamimlb Tom Koehler nymetsmlb Seth Lugo
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM -120 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.324 22 33.7% 18.7% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.240 0 34.4% 23.5%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.314 13 28.9% 16.6% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.244 0 41.3% 19.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tom Koehler
tom-koehler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,800
FPPG: 27.0 FPPG: 13.2
Pitcher Rating: 49.7 Pitcher Rank: 20
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 101.6 3.90 2.61 20.6% 5.6% 10.2% 48.9% 31.5% 30.1%
2016 26 94.5 4.80 3.85 18.4% 9.8% 9.6% 42.9% 34.1% 27.0%
2015 31 96.0 4.67 4.08 17.1% 9.6% 7.3% 46.0% 35.6% 34.5%

Home:—ERA: 3.36 — K%: 20.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.300
Away:—ERA: 4.54 — K%: 15.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.336

Koehler has quietly pitched well in his last five starts, posting a 3.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.6%. As you can see from his splits above, his strikeout rate takes a huge dip on the road, as does his ERA and wOBA allowed. He comes into the game as a small underdog against the Mets, whose offense is a lot more intimidating with Jose Reyes and Yoenis Cespedes back from injury. Koehler is a pitcher to keep your eye on, but he can be avoided tonight on the road.

Seth Lugo
seth-lugo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,100
FPPG: 13.3 FPPG: 7.4
Pitcher Rating: 62.8 Pitcher Rank: 12
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 2 75.5 3.87 2.95 22.9% 7.2% 12.1% 40.0% 41.8% 43.9%
2016 2 75.5 4.16 2.51 21.1% 8.8% 10.1% 43.2% 37.8% 38.5%

Home:—ERA: 2.61 — K%: 24.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.189
Away:—ERA: 2.45 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.272

Lugo has pitched well in his first 11 major league appearances. In his last start, he threw 92 pitches against the Cardinals, striking out five batters in five shutout innings of work. Assuming he pitches well tonight, we could see him top the 95-pitch mark for the first time in his major league career. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Marlins, who have the third lowest team wOBA over the last month of play. Everyone liked the Rafael Montero play on DraftKings last night and I’d argue that Lugo has more upside than Montero at the same price and in the same matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins have been ice cold at the plate. They are really missing Giancarlo Stanton in the middle of their lineup right now. They come into tonight’s game with the eighth lowest implied team total in the slate. Dee Gordon is worth a look on FanDuel at $2,900. The Mets’ catchers are not efficient at throwing baserunners out, although stealing a base requires Gordon to actually to reach base first.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.318 0.073 18.0% 0.195 2B $2,900 2B $4,300
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.308 0.098 25.0% 0.298 3B $3,000 3B $3,500
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.376 0.175 38.9% 0.328 OF $3,700 OF $4,900
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.302 0.142 34.6% 0.221 OF $3,200 OF $3,900
5 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.317 0.122 29.6% 0.317 C $3,100 C $4,100
6 Ichiro Suzuki LEFT 0.264 0.045 17.7% 0.280 OF $2,600 OF $3,400
7 Xavier Scruggs RIGHT 0.295 0.074 23.3% 0.417 1B $2,000 1B $2,700
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.273 0.078 27.0% 0.259 SS $2,300 SS $2,800
9 Tom Koehler RIGHT 0.116 0.014 8.7% 0.219 P $7,300 P $6,800
Team Averages — 0.285 0.091 24.8% 0.282 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

The Mets have a mediocre run projection tonight, as they host Tom Koehler and the Marlins. Even though Koehler has been in good form recently, he is a much better pitcher at home than he is on the road. Citi Field may not be the best hitter’s park, but Koehler hasn’t been particularly effective against left or right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.297 0.105 20.5% 0.373 3B $3,000 3B/SS $3,900
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.319 0.179 31.7% 0.524 SS $2,700 SS $3,500
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.379 0.263 36.6% 0.532 OF $3,900 OF $4,400
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.333 0.253 38.4% 0.217 OF $3,300 OF $3,800
5 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.335 0.175 34.6% 0.480 2B $3,200 2B $4,000
6 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.358 0.220 36.8% 0.242 OF $3,200 OF $3,800
7 James Loney LEFT 0.314 0.098 24.6% 0.175 1B $2,100 1B $2,700
8 Travis D’Arnaud RIGHT 0.317 0.158 29.4% 0.234 C $2,100 C $3,100
9 Seth Lugo RIGHT 0.175 0.000 40.0% 0.175 P $6,000 P $4,100
Team Averages — 0.314 0.161 32.5% 0.328 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Minnesota at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Cleveland
minnesotamlb Andrew Albers clevelandmlb Josh Tomlin
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -210 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.104 0 30.0% 26.7% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.260 18 35.7% 18.4%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.480 3 46.7% 8.6% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.363 29 33.9% 19.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Albers
andrew-albers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 15.5 FPPG: 7.5
Pitcher Rating: 43.0 Pitcher Rank: 23
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 0 0.0 3.60 4.32 15.4% 2.6% 5.1% 53.1% 28.1% 46.9%
2016 0 0.0 3.60 4.32 15.4% 2.6% 5.1% 53.1% 28.1% 46.9%
2015 0 0.0 6.46 3.37 9.1% 18.2% 2.9% 50.0% 25.0% 25.0%

Home:—ERA: 4.50 — K%: 16.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.431
Away:—ERA: 3.60 — K%: 10.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.272

Albers had made ten career major league starts, posting a 4.06 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 10.7%. He is a 30-year old left-hander that is not a long term starter for the Twins. He comes into tonight’s game as a huge underdog on the road against the Indians. Even though Hector Santiago pitched six shutout innings the Indians out last night, it doesn’t mean Albers will have anywhere near the same type of outing tonight. He should be avoided in all league formats tonight.

Josh Tomlin
josh-tomlin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $5,200
FPPG: 27.5 FPPG: 13.4
Pitcher Rating: 63.6 Pitcher Rank: 10
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 90.5 4.23 9.00 17.6% 5.4% 8.5% 49.1% 32.1% 43.9%
2016 24 92.5 4.20 4.70 17.3% 3.3% 7.3% 42.9% 36.2% 35.3%
2015 10 94.9 3.46 3.02 22.7% 3.2% 9.4% 37.5% 46.2% 33.2%

Home:—ERA: 4.04 — K%: 19.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.327
Away:—ERA: 4.29 — K%: 18.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.311

Tomlin is one of the biggest favorites in the slate tonight, but it has more to do with who the Twins are trotting out there than anything else. I’ve been trying to talk people off of using Tomlin all season. He has a 4.70 ERA with a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate. There isn’t enough upside to warrant the risk, especially against a Twins’ offense that is loaded with right-handed hitters (Tomlin is a reverse-splits pitcher). I get the appeal of targeting a huge favorite at this price point, but I will be looking elsewhere at pitcher.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins may have a below-average run projection in this slate, but they look like a sneaky offense to stack in tournaments. Josh Tomlin is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a 35.3% hard contact rate this season. Better yet, he has allowed a .366 wOBA and 20 home runs to right-handed hitters in only 20 starts. I would avoid the left-handed hitters here though, as he has held them under a .300 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.333 0.222 30.9% 0.388 2B $3,700 2B $4,700
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.326 0.120 31.2% 0.300 1B $3,000 1B $4,000
3 Max Kepler LEFT 0.369 0.262 35.0% 0.238 OF $3,500 OF $4,600
4 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.306 0.173 32.4% 0.389 3B $3,100 3B $4,100
5 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.361 0.243 39.5% 0.192 OF $3,500 3B/OF $3,900
6 Jorge Polanco RIGHT 0.321 0.118 26.4% 0.298 3B $2,900 3B/SS $3,700
7 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.308 0.188 31.2% 0.267 OF $2,900 OF $3,600
8 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.316 0.150 31.3% 0.361 OF $2,600 OF $3,700
9 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.284 0.095 26.9% 0.237 C $2,200 C $3,200
Team Averages — 0.325 0.175 31.6% 0.297 — — — —

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Trevor Plouffe, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

I jinxed the Indians yesterday by saying the right-handed hitter stack was one of my favorites in the slate. Obviously, Hector Santiago came out and dominated them in Cleveland. Even though they have struggled against southpaws all season, the Indians have the second highest implied team total in the slate tonight. Left and right-handed hitters are in play against Andrew Albers.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.315 0.173 29.9% 0.176 OF $3,300 OF $4,500
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.319 0.148 29.7% 0.261 2B $3,700 2B $3,900
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.349 0.154 23.2% 0.313 SS $3,400 SS $4,200
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.394 0.263 38.8% 0.195 1B $3,600 1B $4,100
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.324 0.108 28.1% 0.386 1B $3,800 1B $4,100
6 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.311 0.129 23.7% 0.344 P $4,000 P $4,600
7 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.398 0.203 32.9% 0.316 OF $2,900 OF $4,300
8 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.287 0.105 23.8% 0.281 OF $2,600 OF $3,200
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.320 0.115 28.1% 0.313 C $2,300 C $3,200
Team Averages — 0.335 0.155 28.7% 0.287 — — — —

Elite Plays – Rajai Davis, Mike Napoli

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious