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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-19 02:38:26

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Milwaukee Pittsburgh
milwaukeemlb Junior Guerra pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-145 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.339 36.8% 11.8% 19.2% 40.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.346 0.366 35.4% 3.7% 11.9% 46.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.312 31.4% 9.1% 19.5% 42.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 0.286 31.3% 3.7% 20.6% 56.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Junior Guerra
junior-guerra-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 4.42 2.81 20.3% 8.7% 45.3% 33.8% 19.9%
2017 10 5.76 4.78 17.3% 13.8% 34.2% 33.8% 20.5%

Guerra has not been sharp this season. In fact, he has been dreadful. In ten starts, he has a 5.76 SIERA with a walk rate of 14% and a hard contact rate (34%) that matches his ground ball rate. Basically, he’s not striking anyone out, he’s giving up free base passes regularly, he’s not inducing ground balls, and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. That sounds like a perfect opportunity to stack the opposing offense to me.

Quick Breakdown: In case you couldn’t read between the lines, I will NOT be using Guerra tonight in any league format.

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.76 4.17 18.6% 4.1% 53.6% 34.4% 18.5%
2017 18 4.52 3.21 13.9% 3.1% 47.9% 31.8% 18.2%

Nova is one of those pitchers that pitches to contact. He throws a lot of strikes and ends up getting a lot of contact early in counts. This allows him to pitch deep into ball games because his pitch count is always so low. While a 14% strikeout rate is far from ideal, he pitches deeper into games than most, which does help his fantasy production. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable favorite at home and he sees a bump in strikeout potential with a matchup against the Brewers, who have the third highest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season. I would typically never play Nova in a 15 game slate, but after Clayton Kershaw, the pitching options are ugly again tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Nova is firmly in play as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites, even though his strikeout upside isn’t as high as we’d like it to be.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers are sizable underdogs on the road and they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. They are also facing a pitcher (Ivan Nova) that has held right-handed hitters to a .286 xwOBA with a 56% ground ball rate. If you are targeting anyone from Milwaukee, make sure they bat from the left side of the plate. Over the last two seasons, Nova has allowed a .366 xwOBA with a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.325 0.300 0.144 35.5% 10.7% 26.2% 59.6% 2B $3,300 2B $4,000 2B $7,800
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.407 0.351 0.322 43.0% 17.3% 24.2% 38.3% 1B $3,600 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,400
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.359 0.339 0.237 34.7% 7.6% 19.5% 54.9% OF $4,400 OF $4,800 LF $9,300
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.355 0.341 0.219 36.9% 9.5% 22.7% 38.9% 3B $3,800 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.346 0.333 0.185 35.1% 11.7% 32.0% 46.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
6 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.336 0.314 0.202 28.5% 6.9% 19.7% 35.3% C $2,600 C $3,100 C $6,000
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.313 0.297 0.196 36.8% 9.8% 37.5% 42.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.290 0.258 0.139 26.1% 4.5% 19.9% 54.8% SS $2,700 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Junior Guerra RIGHT 0.166 0.177 0.029 21.9% 0.0% 27.3% 50.0% P $6,500 P $5,400 P $10,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames, Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are not going to be highly owned tonight because they are the Pirates and they are playing in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. There are also nine teams in this slate with an implied total of at least five runs. This may not be my favorite stack on the board, but Pittsburgh does draw one of the best matchups. As mentioned above, Junior Guerra has been a perfect pitcher to stack against. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he allows a lot of hard contact, especially to left-handed hitters. Pirates’ fans will also be happy to see Starling Marte back in the lineup, after serving his 80-game suspension.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.358 0.340 0.158 35.1% 4.4% 18.1% 47.8% OF $3,000 OF $4,500 CF $8,800
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.309 0.292 0.111 28.4% 4.2% 15.2% 42.6% 2B $2,800 2B/3B $3,900 2B $7,800
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.340 0.342 0.178 35.4% 9.8% 20.2% 36.4% OF $4,000 OF $4,700 RF $9,200
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.343 0.353 0.207 34.3% 11.9% 17.3% 50.7% 1B $3,200 1B $4,200 IF/OF $8,000
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.315 0.323 0.125 31.6% 9.4% 25.7% 58.8% 3B $2,800 3B $2,900 3B $5,700
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.329 0.337 0.193 32.6% 8.7% 16.1% 38.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.312 0.325 0.088 28.4% 13.4% 19.4% 52.8% C $2,500 C $3,400 C $6,600
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.307 0.297 0.123 26.0% 8.6% 14.7% 49.0% SS $2,800 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.056 0.055 0.000 4.8% 0.0% 60.4% 64.3% P $8,200 P $7,600 P $15,000

Elite Plays – Josh Bell

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen, David Freese, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Texas Baltimore
texasmlb Tyson Ross baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-122 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.303 0.365 32.0% 9.9% 16.9% 46.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.334 0.339 33.1% 8.3% 15.7% 32.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.364 0.302 26.2% 11.1% 17.5% 33.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.315 29.4% 8.5% 25.2% 34.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyson Ross
tyson-ross-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 3.64 11.81 18.5% 3.7% 47.4% 42.1% 21.1%
2017 5 5.55 5.33 16.8% 12.2% 38.9% 26.0% 13.7%

In theory, the Orioles should be a good matchup for Ross, who has been significantly better against right-handed hitters than he has been against lefties in his career. Baltimore will likely only have two lefties (Seth Smith and Chris Davis) in their lineup tonight. However, Ross has been in such bad form that we should want nothing to do with him when it comes to DFS. In his five starts this season, he has a 5.55 SIERA with a walk rate (12%) that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (17%).

Quick Breakdown: Even though he will have the platoon advantage, Ross should be avoided in all formats.

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.23 4.02 21.9% 8.9% 35.9% 28.0% 23.6%
2017 18 4.87 4.33 18.9% 7.9% 31.5% 34.9% 19.6%

Every time I see Bundy on the schedule, my mind immediately starts playing the “Love and Marriage” song. I didn’t even watch the show growing up, but my brain refuses to let me think of Bundy without playing the song. That was of course Al Bundy. Dylan Bundy will draw the start for Baltimore tonight. He is having a down season overall and draws a difficult matchup against the Rangers, who have been much better offensively since the return of Adrian Beltre. In game that features an over/under of 10.5 runs, both of these pitchers can be avoided.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy is cheap on DraftKings, but there are a handful of other pitchers that I’d take before him in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers were a huge letdown last night, which will automatically lower their ownership for tonight’s slate. This is a good time to go right back to the well in tournaments. Dylan Bundy has been hittable this season and is one of the only pitchers in baseball with a higher hard contact rate (35%) than ground ball rate (32%). The one through five stack is certainly viable here and Drew Robinson stands out as one of the best value plays in the slate if he cracks the lineup again.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.327 0.381 0.156 42.6% 12.6% 21.7% 45.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.343 0.321 0.147 27.5% 7.7% 14.0% 47.4% SS $3,200 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.341 0.337 0.196 31.9% 8.3% 18.8% 43.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.362 0.365 0.219 34.6% 7.2% 10.6% 40.8% 3B $3,500 3B $4,000 3B $7,800
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.329 0.296 0.244 35.8% 3.1% 22.4% 39.5% 2B $3,000 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
6 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.327 0.301 0.200 34.6% 9.0% 30.2% 42.1% OF $2,900 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
7 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.323 0.325 0.238 35.3% 10.0% 30.1% 36.1% 1B $3,200 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
8 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.343 0.332 0.164 29.9% 7.3% 15.0% 43.9% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Drew Robinson LEFT 0.559 0.485 0.700 37.5% 23.1% 15.4% 62.5% 2B $2,200 2B/OF $2,600 IF/OF $5,100

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Drew Robinson (potentially an elite play depending on his batting order)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

Even through all of Tyson Ross struggles in the last two seasons, he has still managed to hold right-handed hitters to a .302 xwOBA and a 26% hard contact rate. I’m not saying that we should automatically rule out the righties in this lineup, but in a 15 game slate, I want to feel good about each and every one of my batters. If you are playing the righties, you might as well stack them up in hopes that they can get to Ross early and get into the Rangers’ bullpen. The left-handed hitters are firmly in play here, as Ross has allowed a .365 xwOBA to batters from that side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.337 0.336 0.196 32.3% 4.9% 16.5% 44.4% OF $3,100 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.340 0.356 0.237 35.2% 6.9% 18.7% 38.0% 3B $3,300 3B $4,400 3B $8,700
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.341 0.316 0.203 29.5% 3.3% 20.5% 41.9% 2B $3,100 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.345 0.351 0.265 42.8% 13.6% 34.8% 36.1% 1B $2,900 1B $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.367 0.375 0.257 36.7% 8.5% 23.3% 39.4% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.403 0.343 0.247 36.5% 6.3% 26.2% 53.2% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,700 1B $7,200
7 Seth Smith LEFT 0.333 0.368 0.174 34.1% 10.2% 21.1% 45.8% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 LF $7,800
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.302 0.297 0.143 33.7% 6.3% 27.1% 41.9% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,400
9 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.198 0.254 0.038 19.1% 5.6% 20.2% 38.3% SS $2,500 3B/SS $3,200 SS $6,400

Elite Plays – Seth Smith, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Arizona Cincinnati
arizonamlb Robbie Ray cincinnatimlb Sal Romano
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-132 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.287 0.259 39.6% 5.8% 34.2% 51.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.416 0.372 55.6% 11.8% 29.4% 22.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.326 37.9% 11.3% 28.3% 41.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.396 0.311 20.0% 14.3% 14.3% 61.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Robbie Ray
robbie-ray-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,400 Salary: $11,200 Salary: $21,600
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.59 4.90 28.1% 9.2% 45.7% 36.6% 16.0%
2017 17 3.73 2.97 32.1% 11.9% 39.2% 41.6% 19.3%

Ray is the second most talented pitcher in the slate, but he’s priced at a premium and he draws one of the worst matchups on the board. On the season, Cincinnati is ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against southpaws and Ray has to face them in the home run-friendly Great American Ballpark. To succeed here, you have to have a high strikeout rate and/or a high ground ball rate. Ray could certainly come out and strikeout ten batters here, but he could also give up a couple of home runs. With that kind of uncertainty, it’s hard to pay this much for a pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Ray has as much upside as any pitcher not-named Clayton Kershaw, but he’s too risky to use in cash games.

Sal Romano
salvatore-romano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 5.13 4.50 21.1% 13.2% 45.5% 33.3% 25.0%

Romano is making his third career major league start tonight. In ten Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.43 FIP with a 15% strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate. Call me crazy, but I don’t expect his current 21% strikeout rate in the majors to be sustainable. It doesn’t hurt to take a wait and see approach with Romano, especially in this ballpark and especially in a 15 game slate.

Quick Breakdown: For now, avoid Romano in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have struggled to get their bats going on the road this season, but they get to face a rookie pitcher in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. The best part is that they will likely get overlooked thanks to the Yankees (facing Bartolo Colon) and the game in Coors Field. Arizona is one of my favorite contrarian stacks on the board tonight, as they should benefit from facing a low strikeout pitcher that has struggled with his command in his first two major league starts.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.352 0.300 0.156 37.3% 7.8% 20.3% 42.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 CF $8,700
2 David Peralta LEFT 0.342 0.315 0.161 36.5% 6.2% 17.3% 54.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.392 0.383 0.228 39.9% 14.0% 21.4% 45.0% 1B $4,300 1B $5,500 1B $10,800
4 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.389 0.378 0.282 40.1% 11.7% 23.6% 42.6% 3B $3,400 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
5 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.319 0.293 0.159 32.3% 4.3% 20.4% 47.9% SS $2,900 OF/SS $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.350 0.314 0.178 33.1% 7.0% 20.5% 48.9% 2B $2,200 2B $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
7 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.346 0.332 0.176 33.0% 12.4% 18.8% 43.1% 2B $2,800 2B/OF $3,800 2B $7,600
8 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.262 0.296 0.154 35.3% 8.3% 29.8% 36.6% C $2,900 C $3,500 C $6,900
9 Robbie Ray LEFT 0.229 0.188 0.104 27.3% 1.3% 40.8% 65.7% P $10,400 P $11,200 P $21,600

Elite Plays – A.J. Pollock, David Peralta, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Owings

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

I have my concerns about Robbie Ray pitching on the road in a home run-friendly ballpark, but that doesn’t mean that I will be loading up on the Reds’ hitters. There are nine teams with implied totals of at least five runs on the schedule tonight, so we can afford to be picky when it comes to hitter selection. Ray has allowed a lot of hard contact (38%+ to both left and right-handed hitters), but the Reds’ batters are deep GPP fliers at best in this 15 game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.232 0.226 0.078 16.5% 2.8% 23.3% 44.3% OF $3,400 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.360 0.330 0.228 36.3% 8.3% 16.6% 39.6% SS $3,100 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.395 0.362 0.224 30.5% 11.8% 19.0% 54.7% 1B $4,000 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.370 0.348 0.287 39.2% 8.8% 24.5% 37.1% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.376 0.347 0.232 37.2% 12.2% 24.9% 46.7% 3B $2,700 3B $2,900 3B $5,600
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.352 0.355 0.236 36.3% 3.1% 16.3% 46.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.311 0.300 0.095 24.4% 3.5% 13.2% 51.7% SS $2,000 2B/SS $3,200 2B $6,300
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.233 0.248 0.103 21.2% 6.2% 27.1% 60.2% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Sal Romano RIGHT P $6,000 P $5,800 P $11,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Philadelphia Miami
philadelphiamlb Vince Velasquez miamimlb Adam Conley
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-135 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.326 33.1% 10.0% 26.0% 37.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.337 0.290 25.6% 8.6% 14.4% 47.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.328 0.316 35.3% 7.2% 27.2% 35.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.323 0.331 34.3% 11.6% 22.4% 34.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Vince Velasquez
vincent-velasquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.62 4.12 27.6% 8.2% 34.8% 32.6% 18.4%
2017 10 4.27 5.58 24.1% 9.6% 41.3% 38.2% 13.2%

Velasquez will be activated from the DL and will be making his first start in a month and a half. He has always had strikeout upside as a pitcher, but has failed to put everything together. On the season, he owns a 4.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a hard contact rate of 38%. He’s certainly worth keeping an eye on in the second half of the season, but he’s an easy fade tonight. Not only is he pitching on the road against a low strikeout offense, but he might need to shake some rust off in his first couple starts back from injury.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Velasquez in all formats.

Adam Conley
adam-conley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.64 3.85 21.2% 10.6% 38.2% 31.4% 20.5%
2017 6 5.48 7.53 17.2% 11.9% 37.8% 34.4% 18.3%

Conley has really struggled in his six starts this season, posting a 5.48 SIERA with a walk rate of 12% and a hard contact rate of 34%. The Phillies are always a favorable matchup for a pitcher, but something has to give in this matchup. After looking at Conley’s numbers for the year, the Phillies seem to be the play here. Conley might be a favorite and he might be cheap, but he’s one of the many pitchers in this slate that I see as an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Conley in all formats until he can flash some form.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw a favorable matchup against Adam Conley, but they have to face him on the road in a big ballparks. It’s not an ideal spot for a stack, but we can certainly look to the right-handed hitters in this lineup as one-off targets. Over the last two seasons, Conley has allowed a .331 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.331 0.294 0.099 22.7% 7.4% 18.2% 58.0% 2B $2,800 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.255 0.255 0.121 24.3% 2.3% 16.3% 38.9% SS $2,600 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
3 Daniel Nava SWITCH 0.252 0.330 0.023 38.7% 16.7% 25.9% 58.1% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 LF $6,000
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.336 0.336 0.231 34.4% 7.3% 14.5% 46.7% 3B $3,100 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
5 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.373 0.366 0.299 33.3% 11.1% 22.6% 38.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,200 1B $6,300
6 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.291 0.286 0.095 26.5% 7.5% 23.4% 56.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
7 Cameron Perkins RIGHT 0.215 0.095 17.7% 0.0% 21.7% 56.3% OF $2,000 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
8 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.400 0.329 0.260 36.1% 11.8% 28.5% 47.7% C $2,400 C $3,200 C $6,400
9 Vince Velasquez RIGHT 0.297 0.208 0.063 25.0% 0.0% 25.0% 54.5% P $7,000 P $7,500 P $14,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami

As I mentioned in yesterday’s Grind Down, the Marlins are always a sneaky offense to stack in tournaments because they have a nice mix of speed (Dee Gordon), high OBP (Christian Yelich), and power (Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and Justin Bour). Their matchup against Vince Velasquez may not look great on paper, but he has allowed a ton of hard contact this season to both left and right-handed hitters. I can’t justify listing any of the Marlins’ batters as elite plays tonight, but Miami certainly makes an intriguing contrarian stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.302 0.250 0.076 18.1% 5.6% 14.6% 57.0% 2B $3,000 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.350 0.338 0.250 37.3% 9.4% 28.5% 40.9% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 RF $9,000
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.371 0.381 0.183 40.1% 12.2% 19.3% 55.1% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.348 0.339 0.205 37.8% 7.5% 20.7% 45.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.359 0.388 0.237 39.5% 11.9% 17.4% 42.6% 1B $3,200 1B $4,500 1B $8,800
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.338 0.329 0.151 30.9% 7.3% 19.0% 38.6% 3B $2,400 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
7 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.339 0.310 0.124 30.3% 5.2% 16.6% 50.4% C $3,200 C $3,300 C $6,600
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.291 0.286 0.138 38.9% 6.0% 19.0% 49.6% SS $2,100 SS $2,700 SS $5,400
9 Adam Conley LEFT 0.124 0.130 0.000 8.0% 2.2% 42.2% 68.4% P $7,200 P $5,900 P $11,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

St. Louis NY Mets
stlouismlb Michael Wacha nymetsmlb Rafael Montero
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-105 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.327 0.321 30.6% 9.3% 19.0% 45.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.390 0.342 26.3% 14.8% 18.9% 42.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.310 28.8% 6.7% 21.8% 47.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.359 0.340 30.9% 13.8% 25.2% 43.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Wacha
michael-wacha-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,400
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.31 5.09 18.8% 7.4% 46.6% 30.0% 18.8%
2017 16 4.10 4.10 23.5% 8.5% 46.7% 28.7% 19.8%

Wacha is having a better season than he did in 2016, but most of his success came in the first couple of months of the 2017 season. Since then, he has had mediocre numbers as a whole. His velocity is worth noting though, as it is up considerably from a year ago. This has led to a higher swinging strike rate and a higher strikeout rate. The issue tonight is his matchup. The Mets have the fourth lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season and they have plenty of left-handed batters to throw at Wacha.

Quick Breakdown: When games in Citi Field have an over/under of 9.5 runs, that’s usually a bad sign for the pitchers.

Rafael Montero
rafael-montero-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 5.40 8.05 21.5% 17.2% 35.7% 31.6% 17.5%
2017 4 4.59 5.77 22.9% 12.8% 46.9% 27.5% 16.7%

Montero is a boom or bust pitching option. While he does have a 23% strikeout rate on the season, he also has a 4.59 SIERA and a walk rate of 13%. The Cardinals may not have a lineup full of left-handed hitters, but they are a patient offense at the plate that has improved against right-handed pitching after a slow start to the season. There is more risk than upside with Montero and as I mentioned above, the high total for this game scares me when it comes to the starting pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Montero in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals aren’t my favorite offense to stack in this big slate, but they are an offense that I will be looking to often when it comes to one-off targets. They have a relatively high implied run total and they draw a favorable matchup against Rafael Montero, who has allowed a .340+ xwOBA and a 14%+ walk rate to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. I’m always a fan of playing Matt Carpenter against right-handed pitching and I love that he is now second base eligible on FanDuel.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.380 0.414 0.251 46.6% 16.1% 18.8% 27.0% 2B $3,900 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.351 0.353 0.189 40.5% 9.3% 30.1% 54.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
3 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.363 0.351 0.202 31.6% 13.8% 24.1% 36.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.358 0.339 0.257 34.1% 8.9% 23.7% 42.4% 3B $3,400 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.322 0.332 0.122 32.9% 5.8% 11.9% 47.3% C $2,800 C $3,300 C $6,600
6 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.319 0.320 0.137 25.2% 10.0% 13.7% 47.1% 2B $2,400 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
7 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.370 0.304 0.284 38.4% 1.0% 28.8% 31.5% SS $2,600 2B/SS $3,200 3B $6,300
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.316 0.254 0.000 11.1% 11.5% 19.2% 50.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,700 CF $5,400
9 Michael Wacha RIGHT 0.070 0.101 0.000 7.1% 5.1% 47.5% 84.2% P $8,100 P $9,500 P $18,400

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Jedd Gyorko, Yadier Molina

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

I plan to have little to no exposure to Michael Wacha tonight, but I also plan to have little to no exposure to the Mets’ offense. I talk about this all the time, but we can afford to be picky in a 15 game slate. If I’m not confident about a matchup one way or the other, I don’t mind fading both sides of it. The Mets’ offense hits right-handed pitching well, but at the same time, Wacha has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.367 0.366 0.242 43.3% 12.7% 24.0% 36.6% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.334 0.330 0.197 35.6% 7.8% 17.2% 38.4% 2B $3,200 2B/SS $3,500 SS $6,800
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.346 0.353 0.226 38.7% 7.5% 19.3% 36.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.373 0.366 0.292 41.5% 9.3% 21.1% 35.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
5 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.376 0.304 0.179 28.7% 3.6% 10.0% 38.6% 3B $2,700 1B/3B $3,700 3B $7,200
6 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.357 0.390 0.244 40.7% 12.8% 21.7% 30.6% 1B $3,400 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
7 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.278 0.269 0.139 26.0% 7.4% 15.6% 36.7% SS $2,700 3B/SS $3,900 SS $7,800
8 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.276 0.297 0.127 33.0% 5.7% 17.1% 47.0% C $2,700 C $2,900 C $5,600
9 Rafael Montero RIGHT 0.000 0.078 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 37.5% 100.0% P $6,000 P $6,000 P $12,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious