MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-07-04 02:27:28

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Detroit at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Detroit								Chicago Cubs
			Michael Fulmer							Kyle Hendricks
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-200							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.311	0.345	38.2%	89.6	20.7%	42.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.314	0.353	32.5%	85.6	19.6%	43.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.312	0.340	42.4%	87.9	20.0%	51.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.345	31.1%	85.4	17.2%	49.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Michael Fulmer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	4.48	3.83	16.9%	5.9%	49.2%	30.0%	18.1%
	2018	16	4.17	4.20	20.4%	7.7%	46.3%	40.1%	15.5%
	L14	2	3.31	4.61	24.6%	3.5%	45.0%	47.5%	15.0%

There are three early games on the schedule, so we’ll get start with an appetizer there and then feast on the main slate. Fulmer has been in decent form recently (3.31 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% in his last two starts), even if his ERA hasn’t cooperated. The good news for Fulmer is that the wind is blowing in from right field today at Wrigley. The bad news is that he is still facing a talented Cubs’ offense. Their confirmed lineup has a .169 ISO with a strikeout rate of 21% against right-handed pitching this season. As one of the largest underdogs on the schedule, Fulmer offers more risk than reward.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Fulmer in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Hendricks
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	24	4.08	3.03	21.6%	7.0%	50.1%	30.4%	22.5%
	2018	16	4.40	4.21	18.3%	7.6%	46.9%	31.7%	22.4%
	L14	2	5.64	10.80	14.6%	14.6%	51.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Hendricks is broken. Over his last two starts, he has a 5.64 SIERA with as many walks as strikeouts. His numbers as a whole as down on the season — 4.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. The good news is that there is a helping wind in Wrigley (at least for the pitchers) and that he is facing a right-handed heavy Tigers’ offense. Detroit’s confirmed lineup has a .261 xwOBA with a 31% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. I’m a little worried that Hendricks could be hiding an injury, but assuming he’s just had a bad stretch of starts, this is a great bounce-back spot.

Quick Breakdown: Hendricks is the preferred pitching target in the early slate, although that’s not saying much.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they won’t be able to use the DH in this series. They come into the game with one of the lowest implied run totals on the board, as they square off against Kyle Hendricks. While he hasn’t been in the best of form recently, he has held right-handed hitters to a 31% hard contact rate with a 49% ground ball rate this season. His struggles have come against lefties, but with the wind blowing in from right field, that’s a significant hit to the left-handed hitters in this game. I plan to fade the Tigers completely and hope the good Hendricks shows up.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.227	87.1	0.080	18.9%	7.1%	26.8%	37.8%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.382	90.6	0.207	49.5%	5.1%	23.4%	32.3%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
3	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.311	87.6	0.203	35.0%	12.5%	23.7%	37.8%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
4	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.328	88.8	0.205	36.4%	9.4%	31.6%	41.4%	OF	$3,000	2B/OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
5	Jim Adduci	LEFT										OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.294	87.5	0.167	29.2%	3.9%	28.0%	41.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.272	88.6	0.058	35.8%	5.4%	21.6%	38.8%	C	$2,300	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.277	84.5	0.091	24.6%	3.7%	11.8%	45.5%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Michael Fulmer	RIGHT	0.000	29.1	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	80.0%	0.0%	P	$7,400	P	$7,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.261	80.5	0.126	28.7%	5.9%	30.9%	34.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs aren’t playing in the most hitter-friendly conditions today, but they have an exploitable matchup against Michael Fulmer, who has given up a 40% hard contact rate this season. In terms of his splits, he has allowed a .345 xwOBA to lefties and a .340 xwOBA to righties, which brings batters from both sides of the plate into the mix. Jason Heyward (.364 xwOBA), Ben Zobrist (.356 xwOBA), Anthony Rizzo (.390 xwOBA), Javier Baez (.346 xwOBA), and Kyle Schwarber (.384 xwOBA) have all hit right-handed pitching well this season. While his numbers aren’t all that appealing, Albert Almora offers nice value batting leadoff.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.267	86.2	0.121	31.7%	4.9%	19.5%	48.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.364	89.2	0.160	34.7%	7.7%	9.6%	40.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.356	88.5	0.165	34.8%	15.8%	12.6%	45.2%	OF	$3,100	2B/OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.390	90.4	0.200	34.4%	11.2%	9.2%	38.5%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.346	89.8	0.284	38.8%	3.8%	27.3%	40.5%	2B	$4,400	2B/SS	$5,100	N/A	N/A
6	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.384	89.4	0.295	40.6%	16.7%	24.4%	43.7%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.304	87.8	0.153	30.4%	7.3%	19.8%	50.3%	C	$3,100	C	$3,800	N/A	N/A
8	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.301	86.3	0.103	32.6%	10.0%	21.9%	36.0%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.141	83.4	0.040	15.4%	3.8%	46.2%	53.8%	P	$6,900	P	$7,600	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.317	87.9	0.169	32.6%	9.0%	21.2%	44.2%

Elite Plays – Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Albert Almora, Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Milwaukee – 4:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Milwaukee
			Jake Odorizzi							Junior Guerra
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIL-132							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.357	0.375	38.1%	89.5	20.8%	25.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.304	0.341	41.0%	89.4	23.5%	37.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.340	0.341	31.5%	87.7	25.6%	28.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.292	0.323	42.3%	89.2	23.0%	41.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jake Odorizzi
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	28	4.90	4.14	21.0%	10.1%	30.6%	36.8%	15.3%
	2018	17	4.47	4.62	23.5%	10.4%	26.9%	34.6%	20.6%
	L14	2	3.57	7.04	30.6%	11.1%	40.0%	30.0%	5.0%

Odorizzi has flashed some upside in his last two starts, but there are still too many red flags here. On the season, he has a 10% walk rate and a hard contact rate (35%) that is significantly higher than his ground ball rate (27%). Historically, he has been a reverse-splits pitcher, but batters from both sides of the plate have fared well against him this season. He draws a difficult matchup today against the Brewers, whose projected lineup has a .320 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: As an underdog in a potential shootout, Odorizzi is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Junior Guerra
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	14	5.23	5.12	21.3%	13.7%	33.5%	33.5%	18.5%
	2018	15	4.14	3.05	23.3%	9.0%	39.5%	41.7%	16.7%
	L14	2	3.98	4.09	25.5%	9.8%	41.9%	43.8%	6.3%

Guerra has been a candidate for regression all season, although the gap between his ERA and SIERA isn’t nearly as large as some of the other pitchers in baseball. His numbers aren’t terrible by any means — 4.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. The concern is his high hard contact rate (42%) and low soft contact rate (17%). Eventually, those hard hits are going to turn into runs. His matchup against the Twins is exploitable, as their projected lineup has a .315 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of 20% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Guerra is the preferred pitching option in this game, but I certainly don’t feel great about it.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins see a small ballpark boost playing in Miller Park and are facing a pitcher that gives up a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard contact. Given the fact that they are underdogs, they may end up being the lowest owned offense of the early slate. While I don’t love their offense as a whole, they are certainly intriguing from an ownership standpoint. On the season, Junior Guerra has allowed a 41%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, and Eduardo Escobar all boast a .355+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.399	90.5	0.083	39.8%	12.5%	11.3%	52.0%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.359	90.0	0.288	39.0%	6.9%	16.5%	29.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
3	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.375	87.3	0.308	40.8%	6.4%	22.9%	23.0%	3B	$3,600	3B/SS	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.306	87.4	0.194	38.4%	9.9%	19.5%	39.5%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.311	89.5	0.118	37.8%	11.4%	14.1%	37.2%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH								SS	$2,500	3B/SS	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	Jake Cave	LEFT	0.412	91.5	0.219	38.5%	3.0%	18.2%	46.2%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Mitch Garver	RIGHT	0.308	89.0	0.149	36.6%	7.2%	27.0%	40.8%	C	$2,600	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Jake Odorizzi	RIGHT	0.047	61.7	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	100.0%	P	$6,700	P	$6,400	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.315	85.9	0.170	33.9%	7.2%	20.4%	46.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Brian Dozier

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Milwaukee

Jake Odorizzi has a decent strikeout rate, but he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. This leads to a lot of extra-base hits for his opponents. On the season, he has allowed a .375 xwOBA to lefties and a .341 xwOBA to righties. As mentioned above, he’s had reverse-splits for most of his career, so we can load up on hitters from both sides of the plate. The Brewers’ lineup is loaded with batters that mash right-handed pitching — Brad Miller (.339 xwOBA), Eric Thames (.389 xwOBA), Jesus Aguilar (.401 xwOBA), Travis Shaw (.406 xwOBA), Ryan Braun (.328 xwOBA), and Keon Broxton (.343 xwOBA).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.339	91.9	0.184	44.6%	11.2%	31.7%	35.9%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.389	92.2	0.318	46.5%	11.4%	29.3%	33.8%	1B	$4,200	1B/OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
3	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.401	90.7	0.305	44.9%	7.7%	27.0%	30.7%	1B	$3,800	1B	$5,400	N/A	N/A
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.406	90.4	0.282	41.7%	14.8%	18.0%	35.0%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.328	90.2	0.201	34.4%	4.0%	23.6%	48.4%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.251	85.9	0.090	29.7%	5.9%	30.2%	64.2%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Keon Broxton	RIGHT	0.343	79.2	0.462	50.0%	7.1%	21.4%	70.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.333	92.8	0.200	57.7%	2.6%	23.1%	46.2%	C	$2,300	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Junior Guerra	RIGHT	0.093	71.4	0.000	10.0%	0.0%	28.6%	37.5%	P	$7,800	P	$8,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.320	87.2	0.227	39.9%	7.2%	25.9%	44.6%

Elite Plays – Brad Miller, Eric Thames, Jesus Aguilar, Travis Shaw

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston at Washington – 6:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Boston								Washington
			Brian Johnson							Tanner Roark
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-108							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.268	0.250	27.3%	83.8	21.3%	45.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.336	0.336	29.3%	86.8	22.4%	39.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.346	0.345	28.0%	88.6	20.0%	39.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.351	31.7%	86.8	17.8%	46.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Brian Johnson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	5	4.89	4.33	17.4%	6.6%	35.9%	35.9%	26.1%
	2018	2	3.87	4.28	20.4%	6.4%	40.8%	27.8%	24.6%
	L14	1	3.80	2.35	21.9%	6.3%	43.5%	34.8%	26.1%

This game is not included in the early slate on DraftKings, but you can still get exposure to it by playing the showdown slate. Johnson has decent numbers overall this season, but he hasn’t thrown more than 61 pitches in any outing since April 2nd. He’s not quite stretched out enough to throw a full complement of pitches, which immediately takes him out of consideration. It doesn’t help that he is facing a talented Nationals’ offense, whose projected lineup has a .332 xwOBA with a 35% hard contact rate against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Johnson in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	30	4.31	4.67	21.4%	8.3%	48.2%	27.8%	16.7%
	2018	16	4.41	4.10	20.2%	8.7%	42.5%	30.5%	19.7%
	L14	2	4.76	6.10	23.5%	13.7%	28.6%	25.8%	16.1%

Roark is the preferred pitching option in this game, but that’s like making a choice between broccoli and cauliflower. You are likely going to be disappointed no matter what your final decision ends up being. Roark has not been in good form recently, posting a 4.76 SIERA with a walk rate of 14% over his last two starts. He draws an awful matchup against the Red Sox, whose projected lineup has a .350 xwOBA with a 21% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. For the all-day slate, we should be avoiding both starters. For the showdown slate, it’s not a bad idea to load up on hitters.

Quick Breakdown: While I won’t talk anyone out of playing Roark in the showdown slate, he could easily end up with negative fantasy production in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox have one of the best offenses in baseball and they are catching Tanner Roark at an opportune time. He hasn’t been in the best of form, particularly with his control. That should bode well for a Red Sox offense that is very patient at the plate. On the season, Roark has allowed a .336 xwOBA to lefties and a .351 xwOBA to righties. Meanwhile, each of the first five batters in this projected lineup have at least a .375 xwOBA against right-handed pitching — Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Mitch Moreland, and Xander Bogaerts.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.477	92.4	0.311	46.2%	13.0%	13.0%	30.1%	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.408	89.0	0.226	28.6%	12.6%	14.4%	36.0%	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.472	94.0	0.349	49.2%	10.8%	20.4%	46.4%	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.436	93.1	0.267	38.5%	10.8%	19.4%	39.2%	1B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.375	91.3	0.244	40.0%	5.0%	16.7%	47.9%	SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.345	93.1	0.218	40.6%	7.3%	25.3%	42.7%	3B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
7	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.328	87.0	0.121	26.9%	9.2%	15.6%	55.8%	2B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.280	87.8	0.089	27.4%	3.2%	14.8%	40.7%	C	$2,100	N/A	N/A
9	Brian Johnson	LEFT	0.029	82.0	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	100.0%	P	$5,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.350	90.0	0.203	33.0%	8.0%	21.1%	48.8%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez,

Secondary Plays – Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals draw an exploitable matchup against Brian Johnson, who has allowed a .345 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. This game is basically set as a pick ‘em with a total of 9.0 runs, so it has the potential to turn into a shootout. Even though Johnson has been tough on lefties, I wouldn’t rule out Bryce Harper and Juan Soto. They both have good numbers against southpaws and it’s not like Johnson is going to pitch deep into this game anyway. Trea Turner (.393 xwOBA), Anthony Rendon (.491 xwOBA), and Mark Reynolds (.332 xwOBA) are the top targets, as they all bat from the right side and have good numbers against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.393	88.5	0.107	34.7%	13.4%	12.4%	44.3%	SS	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.391	89.6	0.196	36.4%	18.6%	23.7%	45.5%	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.491	92.6	0.262	50.0%	10.8%	21.6%	16.0%	3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.332	91.4	0.108	37.0%	9.5%	26.2%	51.9%	1B	$2,600	N/A	N/A
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.394	91.3	0.378	42.9%	14.0%	20.9%	53.6%	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.260	86.2	0.182	39.6%	6.0%	36.1%	55.3%	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
7	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.243	84.2	0.103	25.5%	4.2%	23.9%	38.0%	2B	$2,300	N/A	N/A
8	Pedro Severino	RIGHT	0.260	86.1	0.043	22.9%	9.4%	22.6%	29.4%	C	$2,000	N/A	N/A
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.223	73.6	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	20.0%	80.0%	P	$7,200	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.332	87.1	0.153	34.9%	9.5%	23.0%	46.0%

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Mark Reynolds, Juan Soto

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Atlanta								NY Yankees
			Sean Newcomb							Domingo German
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-170							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.338	0.379	39.0%	91.3	25.0%	46.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.292	0.290	35.2%	86.6	23.0%	39.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.261	0.267	30.0%	85.7	23.6%	47.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.338	0.325	43.5%	88.9	31.3%	38.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sean Newcomb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$17,600
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30
	2017	19	4.71	4.32	23.7%	12.5%	43.8%	27.0%	17.5%
	2018	16	4.19	2.71	23.8%	10.6%	46.9%	31.5%	23.0%
	L14	2	4.75	2.77	17.3%	7.7%	30.8%	46.2%	20.5%

We kick tonight’s 12-game slate off with the Braves and Yankees. Newcomb is a serious regression candidate here in the second half of the season, as his ERA (2.71) is significantly lower than his SIERA (4.19). While he has a decent strikeout rate, the control has been an issue and more recently, he has has given up a lot of hard contact. Even though he’s been tough on right-handed hitters this season, I want no part of him in a road start against the Yankees.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Newcomb in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Domingo German
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$16,000
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30
	2017	0	3.93	3.14	29.0%	14.5%	54.5%	28.6%	25.7%
	2018	9	3.41	5.32	27.5%	7.7%	39.3%	39.3%	17.9%
	L14	2	2.84	5.73	26.1%	0.0%	39.4%	48.5%	27.3%

German has shown plenty of upside in his nine starts this season, posting a 3.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He’s the opposite of Sean Newcomb in that we actually expect his ERA to trend in the other direction moving forward. The issue tonight is a matchup against the Braves, whose projected lineup has a .341 xwOBA with a hard contact rate of 38% and a strikeout rate of only 19% against right-handed pitching this season. With so many games on the schedule, German is a deep GPP flier at best.

Quick Breakdown: German is an easy fade in cash games, but perhaps he has some appeal in large-field tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves’ matchup against Domingo German doesn’t look great on paper, but they are playing in an American League ballpark (use of the DH) that benefits hitters from both sides of the plate. One of German’s biggest weapons is his strikeout rate and the Braves have one of the lowest k-rates of any team in baseball. This isn’t an offense that I am looking to stack, but there are some intriguing one-off targets here. Ozzie Albies (.326 xwOBA), Freddie Freeman (.419 xwOBA), Nick Markakis (.408 xwOBA), Tyler Flowers (.369 xwOBA), and Ronald Acuna (.364 xwOBA) have all hit right-handed pitching well this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.278	82.7	0.118	24.4%	7.3%	12.0%	46.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,200
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.326	85.9	0.227	36.1%	4.8%	17.8%	36.5%	2B	$4,500	2B	$5,400	2B	$10,300
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.419	90.3	0.203	45.8%	15.0%	17.1%	34.9%	1B	$4,600	1B	$5,200	1B	$9,500
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.408	91.4	0.154	40.9%	11.3%	7.9%	42.5%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,200
5	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.369	90.6	0.089	48.3%	8.8%	23.1%	39.7%	C	$2,700	C	$3,300	C	$6,700
6	Ronald Acuna	RIGHT	0.364	92.6	0.211	44.4%	6.2%	28.9%	46.0%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,500	LF	$9,200
7	Charlie Culberson	RIGHT	0.270	86.0	0.179	32.2%	7.6%	27.2%	51.7%	OF	$2,900	3B/OF	$3,400	SS	$6,500
8	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.343	90.0	0.160	41.0%	16.3%	17.0%	50.0%	3B	$2,700	3B/SS	$3,700	3B	$7,500
9	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.292	87.8	0.157	32.0%	6.3%	24.0%	43.7%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,600
	Team Averages		0.341	88.6	0.166	38.3%	9.3%	19.4%	43.5%

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (Cash), Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers (DK), Ronald Acuna

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees draw a mediocre matchup against Sean Newcomb, who has some serious reverse splits. On the season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .261 xwOBA and a 30% hard contact rate, while allowing a .379 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to lefties. This could pose a slight problem for a right-handed heavy Yankees’ offense. With that said, this team absolutely mashes southpaws and they are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres all boast at least a .410 xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.460	92.2	0.329	51.7%	9.6%	19.3%	29.8%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,200
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.411	94.3	0.226	45.8%	19.8%	34.0%	35.4%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,400	RF	$10,400
3	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.502	98.6	0.434	65.6%	10.5%	25.3%	34.4%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,100	RF	$9,600
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.258	78.5	0.114	27.6%	7.3%	13.5%	45.2%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,500	SS	$8,900
5	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.427	90.3	0.317	51.1%	8.6%	24.3%	29.8%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,400
6	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.329	90.3	0.291	32.8%	4.7%	15.3%	44.8%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,300
7	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.355	88.9	0.158	54.6%	22.2%	29.6%	45.5%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
8	Kyle Higashioka	RIGHT	0.921	106.4	1.500	100.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	C	$2,200	C	$3,300	C	$6,700
9	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.289	86.8	0.016	19.6%	9.9%	18.3%	58.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,800
	Team Averages		0.439	91.8	0.376	49.9%	10.3%	25.5%	35.9%

Elite Plays – Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Gleyber Torres (Cash), Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Philadelphia
			Alex Cobb							Zach Eflin
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-145							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.408	0.380	37.0%	89.0	16.7%	42.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.321	0.342	26.1%	87.5	26.0%	34.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.380	0.349	31.1%	90.2	12.8%	57.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.251	0.272	27.5%	86.6	23.3%	37.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$4,500	Salary:		$9,300
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30
	2017	29	4.48	3.66	17.3%	5.9%	47.8%	36.9%	14.9%
	2018	14	4.55	6.75	14.6%	6.1%	50.9%	33.7%	20.0%
	L14	2	5.21	4.63	13.2%	9.4%	55.0%	35.0%	17.5%

Cobb has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. While his ground ball rate is still above the major league average, he currently owns a 4.55 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. That’s not going to get the job done in any matchup. While the Phillies have a high strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, that could be negated in this matchup. If anything, this matchup should boost the Phillies’ offense rather than Cobb.

Quick Breakdown: As an underdog on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Cobb should be avoided in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zach Eflin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$9,900	Salary:		$19,400
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30
	2017	11	5.08	6.16	12.5%	4.3%	44.1%	33.3%	16.7%
	2018	10	3.67	3.02	24.5%	6.0%	35.9%	26.9%	20.6%
	L14	2	3.86	1.50	22.9%	6.3%	38.2%	11.8%	14.7%

Eflin is one of my favorite tournament targets of the slate. He has quietly pitched well all season, posting a 3.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a hard contact rate of 27% in ten starts. The main reason to like him is his matchup against the right-handed heavy Orioles. On the season, Eflin has held righties to a .272 xwOBA with a 23% k-rate. Meanwhile, the projected lineup for Baltimore has a .295 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of 23% against right-handed pitching this season. Everything is aligning for Eflin, so fire him up in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Eflin is an elite GPP play, especially if his ownership is projected to be low.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles’ offense has really taken a step back this season. Outside of Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, and Trey Mancini, they don’t have another batter in their projected lineup with an xwOBA above .280 against right-handed pitching this season. To make matters worse, the four batters listed all bat from the right side and as I mentioned above, Zach Eflin has held righties to a .272 xwOBA and a 28% hard contact rate. The Orioles are a full fade against Eflin, which would have been crazy to say a year ago.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.236	84.8	0.038	24.1%	4.7%	27.1%	50.9%	3B	$2,300	3B	$3,000	SS	$5,900
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.346	89.2	0.187	33.2%	3.3%	19.4%	40.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.400	93.0	0.268	37.2%	10.9%	16.0%	35.1%	SS	$4,500	SS	$5,000	3B	$9,700
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.375	93.6	0.252	43.2%	5.9%	23.5%	37.9%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$4,000	DH	$7,200
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.280	86.4	0.080	33.6%	7.8%	35.8%	44.8%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,000	IF/OF	$5,400
6	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.377	91.4	0.163	34.0%	9.5%	24.5%	49.3%	OF	$2,800	1B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,800
7	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.229	84.5	0.179	24.4%	2.7%	24.2%	49.2%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,400
8	Chance Sisco	LEFT	0.289	87.9	0.084	31.9%	7.9%	33.8%	49.3%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	C	$5,900
9	Alex Cobb	RIGHT	0.120	71.3	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	P	$6,000	P	$4,500	P	$9,300
	Team Averages		0.295	86.9	0.139	29.1%	5.9%	22.7%	50.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

The Phillies should fly under the radar tonight, despite one of the best matchups of the slate. On the season, Alex Cobb has allowed a .380 xwOBA to lefties and a .349 xwOBA to righties. More importantly, he has a 15% strikeout rate, which is a big boost for a number of these high-strikeout hitters in the Phillies’ lineup. The one through five batters are the top targets here, as they all boast a .320+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season — Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana, and Nick Williams.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.334	83.8	0.144	27.2%	14.5%	22.7%	44.4%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,700	2B	$8,900
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.387	89.4	0.264	35.5%	12.3%	27.7%	26.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,200	IF/OF	$10,000
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.321	87.5	0.196	27.3%	7.3%	20.6%	43.4%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,700	IF/OF	$8,900
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.398	89.1	0.215	37.6%	20.6%	13.9%	35.4%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,000
5	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.367	88.9	0.213	31.1%	8.4%	26.3%	46.2%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,300
6	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.309	86.2	0.120	26.2%	5.8%	21.6%	38.8%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,700
7	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.302	88.4	0.168	23.0%	5.1%	16.4%	56.1%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,600
8	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.250	91.4	0.124	27.9%	3.9%	38.3%	55.8%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	C	$5,800
9	Zach Eflin	RIGHT	0.163	83.4	0.188	28.6%	0.0%	58.8%	83.3%	P	$9,100	P	$9,900	P	$19,400
	Team Averages		0.315	87.6	0.181	29.4%	8.7%	27.4%	47.8%

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Nick Williams, Rhys Hoskins (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (Cash), Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 3rd

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Detroit at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Minnesota at Milwaukee – 4:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Boston at Washington – 6:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Atlanta at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Baltimore at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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