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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-06 01:07:22

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Mets at Washington – 11:05 AM ET

NY Mets Washington
nymetsmlb Seth Lugo washingtonmlb Joe Ross
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-165 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.294 0.364 33.1% 11.4% 14.3% 42.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.368 0.350 33.7% 7.4% 19.7% 38.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.296 0.326 35.5% 4.7% 19.3% 42.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.294 29.1% 4.8% 22.3% 43.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Seth Lugo
seth-lugo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 8 4.66 2.67 17.3% 8.1% 42.8% 38.4% 16.8%
2017 4 4.96 3.55 15.9% 7.5% 41.3% 24.7% 19.8%

Happy 4th of July everyone! In the holiday spirit, we will have a special Cliffs Notes version of the Grind Down. We all have events to attend today, so we’ll keep the analysis short and sweet.

Lugo has had a low ERA over the last two seasons, but there should be some serious regression coming. He has a low strikeout rate and he is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that is facing a talented Nationals’ offense on the road. There are options with higher floors and higher ceilings at his price point.

Quick Breakdown: Lugo is an easy fade in all formats.

Joe Ross
joseph-ross-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.06 3.43 20.8% 6.5% 42.6% 29.5% 16.3%
2017 11 4.14 5.12 21.3% 5.4% 37.9% 34.3% 20.4%

Ross is at his best when he is facing a right-handed heavy lineup. His numbers against lefties are significantly worse, which is why the Mets pose such a problem. Ross also has limited strikeout upside, as the Mets have the fourth lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Ross is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets are sizable underdogs today, but they draw a decent matchup against Joe Ross. Over the last two seasons, Ross has allowed a .350 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. The Mets are far from core plays in this slate, but Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, and Lucas Duda are viable tournament options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.323 0.331 0.069 32.7% 8.8% 25.0% 36.5% OF $2,200 N/A N/A
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.342 0.330 0.203 35.4% 7.6% 17.3% 38.7% 2B $3,100 N/A N/A
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.354 0.353 0.235 38.6% 7.6% 19.6% 35.8% OF $3,400 N/A N/A
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.373 0.366 0.292 41.7% 9.4% 21.0% 35.8% OF $3,500 N/A N/A
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.369 0.390 0.259 41.4% 12.4% 21.9% 31.0% 1B $3,200 N/A N/A
6 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.366 0.304 0.174 29.0% 3.5% 10.4% 38.1% 3B $2,500 N/A N/A
7 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.274 0.269 0.129 26.1% 7.7% 16.1% 37.4% SS $2,400 N/A N/A
8 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.281 0.297 0.131 33.0% 5.9% 16.7% 47.3% C $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Seth Lugo RIGHT 0.194 0.210 0.056 31.3% 5.0% 15.0% 42.9% P $7,500 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The sample size is small (12 starts), but Seth Lugo has allowed a .364 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. He hasn’t been much better against righties, so we can look to both left and right-handed hitters. The Nationals currently have the sixth highest implied run total in the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.326 0.294 0.196 33.0% 9.7% 27.3% 45.3% OF $2,800 N/A N/A
2 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.303 0.280 0.188 33.2% 5.5% 31.9% 41.0% OF $3,500 N/A N/A
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.380 0.397 0.232 34.4% 18.5% 15.8% 39.7% OF $4,700 N/A N/A
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.326 0.337 0.188 36.3% 5.6% 22.7% 45.6% 1B $3,400 N/A N/A
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.411 0.396 0.252 38.2% 6.9% 8.5% 35.5% 2B $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.350 0.353 0.197 35.2% 10.0% 17.2% 36.7% 3B $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Stephen Drew LEFT 0.363 0.339 0.239 40.0% 9.4% 19.2% 32.7% SS $2,300 N/A N/A
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.300 0.314 0.158 32.6% 6.2% 17.9% 37.6% C $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Joe Ross RIGHT 0.183 0.149 0.040 17.2% 1.9% 43.4% 70.4% P $8,500 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Michael Taylor, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Toronto NY Yankees
torontomlb J.A. Happ nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-115 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 0.336 34.5% 6.1% 17.9% 46.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.291 0.280 18.5% 9.4% 23.2% 52.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.312 31.1% 7.0% 21.9% 41.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.297 28.8% 8.0% 19.0% 49.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

J.A. Happ
j-a-happ-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.28 3.18 20.5% 7.5% 42.5% 31.6% 17.8%
2017 9 3.65 3.71 23.6% 4.2% 44.5% 32.7% 17.3%

Happ has pitched well this season and he hasn’t let an injury hold him back. In nine starts, he has a 3.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. The issue today is obviously the matchup. Facing the Yankees is hard enough and he has to do it in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Even with all of the injuries to their lineup, New York still boasts a scary lineup for an opposing pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options in both cash games and tournaments.

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.35 3.91 19.8% 8.5% 50.1% 24.7% 24.0%
2017 13 4.36 3.46 19.7% 7.6% 49.8% 32.7% 19.9%

Sabathia is making his first start in nearly three weeks and he doesn’t get an easy one to ease back into action. The Blue Jays have a lineup full of right-handed hitters that mash left-handed pitching. Sabathia does a nice job of limiting hard contact, but he carries more risk than potential reward, especially in a full slate.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays draw a decent matchup against CC Sabathia in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, but they haven’t hit him well in the past. Their current roster has a .300 xwOBA with 53 strikeouts in 244 plate appearances. I have some interest in Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, and Kendrys Morales, but they aren’t exactly core plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.289 0.341 0.161 35.8% 13.8% 20.2% 44.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.311 0.358 0.156 41.4% 15.8% 27.7% 39.4% C $2,400 C $2,700 C $5,400
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.397 0.408 0.237 39.4% 18.6% 15.5% 35.4% 3B $3,500 3B $4,000 3B $7,800
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.357 0.370 0.191 35.7% 9.5% 16.0% 39.7% 1B $3,400 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.389 0.398 0.231 40.4% 4.9% 20.2% 39.9% 1B $3,000 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.295 0.309 0.149 28.9% 8.8% 15.9% 48.4% SS $2,800 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
7 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.413 0.373 0.300 43.2% 11.6% 23.2% 36.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 1B $6,600
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.346 0.317 0.170 34.6% 3.8% 14.0% 37.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.307 0.294 0.075 24.4% 8.4% 17.4% 40.8% SS $2,100 2B/3B $2,800 2B $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

This is one of those games that should be appealing in one way or another, but I’m not a fan of either pitcher and I’m not a huge fan of either offense. Over the last two seasons, J.A. Happ has held right-handed hitters to a .312 xwOBA and a 31% hard contact rate. Brett Gardner may actually be the best play here, as Happ has reverse-splits and Gardner has a good track record against him in his career (9-for-25 with five extra-base hits).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.276 0.273 0.101 24.4% 7.8% 19.0% 51.1% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.423 0.429 0.284 45.0% 23.6% 30.3% 35.0% OF $4,800 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.329 0.420 0.292 43.3% 15.1% 28.3% 40.0% C $3,700 C $4,300 C $8,400
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.355 0.294 0.130 21.7% 3.2% 9.2% 40.2% SS $3,200 SS $4,600 SS $9,000
5 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.273 0.293 0.081 27.7% 7.0% 18.8% 45.7% 3B $2,900 3B $3,300 3B $6,600
6 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.272 0.260 0.080 24.6% 6.0% 17.6% 45.9% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
7 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.277 0.298 0.146 31.8% 5.7% 17.9% 49.5% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,200
8 Clint Frazier RIGHT 1.980 0.283 3.000 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% OF $2,300 OF $2,600 CF $5,100
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.290 0.281 0.030 25.9% 10.5% 13.2% 56.9% 2B $2,600 3B/SS $3,300 SS $6,400

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

San Francisco Detroit
sanfranciscomlb Matt Cain detroitmlb Michael Fulmer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-210 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.377 0.359 30.4% 9.6% 15.7% 42.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.272 0.307 30.6% 7.3% 19.3% 48.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.355 0.340 33.3% 7.8% 15.5% 39.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.277 27.5% 5.2% 20.3% 51.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Cain
matt-cain-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $9,900
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 17 4.67 5.64 18.1% 8.1% 37.3% 31.4% 21.6%
2017 16 5.47 5.46 13.0% 9.1% 44.4% 32.8% 16.4%

Cain is not an interesting fantasy option and hasn’t been for years. He has a low strikeout rate, a low ground ball rate, and he struggles with both left and right-handed hitters. He can be avoided against the Tigers, who are big favorites at home in a game that features an over/under of 10.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: If you are playing Cain, you are doing it wrong.

Michael Fulmer
michael-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,700 Salary: $9,800 Salary: $18,800
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.03 3.06 20.4% 6.5% 49.1% 30.4% 19.2%
2017 15 4.18 3.19 18.9% 5.8% 50.3% 27.0% 17.9%

Fulmer is one of the few pitchers in baseball that may actually be able to sustain an ERA that is around a full run lower than his SIERA. His ability to induce ground balls and soft contact allows him to pitch out of jams more often than most. The issue today is his strikeout upside. Now that they are healthy, the Giants are one of the most difficult teams to strikeout rate in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Fulmer is viable in tournaments, but there are better cash game options.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Michael Fulmer is not a pitcher that I like to pick on. He has an above-average ground ball rate and is very good at limiting hard contact against him. While the Giants get to utilize the DH in this series, they are still a less than potent offense. Brandon Belt is the only hitter on my radar in this one. Over the last two seasons, he has a .395 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.344 0.340 0.154 26.3% 8.2% 11.8% 46.8% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.317 0.331 0.157 26.5% 9.4% 8.1% 44.6% 2B $2,800 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
3 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.327 0.314 0.109 28.6% 8.4% 21.5% 59.0% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.341 0.367 0.138 34.3% 9.0% 11.2% 47.7% C $3,300 1B/C $4,300 C $8,400
5 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.368 0.395 0.212 38.8% 16.6% 22.1% 26.2% 1B $3,100 1B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
6 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.305 0.325 0.160 34.7% 8.5% 19.0% 44.3% SS $2,500 SS $2,600 SS $5,100
7 Austin Slater RIGHT 0.366 0.307 0.164 18.8% 6.0% 19.4% 64.6% OF $2,600 OF $2,600 RF $5,200
8 Nick Hundley RIGHT 0.278 0.285 0.147 33.7% 6.7% 23.2% 46.6% C $2,500 C $3,400 C $6,600
9 Jae-gyun Hwang RIGHT 0.321 0.214 0.200 33.3% 16.7% 33.3% 33.3% 3B $2,300 3B $2,800 3B $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt

Stackability – RED

Detroit

Matt Cain is one of the most hittable pitchers in all of baseball. He has a low strikeout rate and he has allowed a .340+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. The Tigers are a frustrating offense at times, but should be considered one of the top options in this slate. A stack is firmly in play for cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.340 0.324 0.175 34.8% 7.3% 15.3% 33.3% 2B $3,200 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
2 Alex Avila LEFT 0.385 0.405 0.233 49.4% 17.5% 34.0% 38.9% C $3,000 1B/C $4,000 C $7,600
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.339 0.348 0.231 39.8% 9.1% 28.6% 37.5% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.375 0.397 0.243 42.2% 10.7% 25.9% 43.7% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
5 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.382 0.448 0.242 42.3% 10.1% 17.0% 41.0% 1B $4,000 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
6 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.348 0.377 0.187 40.6% 7.0% 24.9% 35.7% 3B $3,200 3B $3,800 3B $7,500
7 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.333 0.383 0.169 41.4% 8.6% 14.4% 38.1% 1B $2,700 1B $3,200 1B $6,300
8 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.230 0.242 0.090 35.1% 4.2% 36.3% 41.3% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.270 0.256 0.072 19.4% 4.7% 12.8% 55.5% SS $2,200 SS $3,200 SS $6,400

Elite Plays – Alex Avila, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Angels at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

LA Angels Minnesota
laangelsmlb J.C. Ramirez minnesotamlb Kyle Gibson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-112 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.330 35.0% 5.9% 17.3% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.385 0.350 34.3% 9.4% 13.5% 47.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.300 0.285 30.8% 6.6% 19.8% 51.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.350 32.1% 8.8% 17.0% 50.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

J.C. Ramirez
j-c-ramirez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.81 4.35 17.6% 6.6% 54.9% 26.4% 21.2%
2017 15 4.23 4.60 19.5% 6.0% 47.0% 38.5% 15.9%

Ramirez has cooled off after a hot start to the season. He now has a below-average strikeout rate and a hard contact rate of 38%. He comes into this game as a small underdog against a talented Twins’ offense that features five batters with at least a .340 wOBA against right-handed pitching. With a weak offense behind him, Ramirez should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Kyle Gibson
kyle-gibson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.73 5.07 15.9% 8.4% 48.8% 31.0% 18.6%
2017 14 5.34 6.11 14.1% 10.4% 50.2% 37.6% 15.5%

Gibson is one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball right now. After posting a 5.34 SIERA (6.11 ERA) and a strikeout rate of only 14%, you would think the Twins would give a call to one of their pitching prospects. As long as Gibson is on the mound, we will have at least one offense that we can stack.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gibson in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels are currently ranked 26th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and they continue to fall without Mike Trout in the lineup. With that said, they draw one of the best matchups on the board. Kyle Gibson has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he struggles with both left and right-handed hitters. The Angels are always a low-owned offense in DFS, which makes them an intriguing stack in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.347 0.304 0.130 24.4% 11.0% 17.5% 61.5% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
2 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.323 0.337 0.146 34.8% 10.0% 18.6% 39.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.315 0.354 0.166 35.5% 7.6% 13.5% 44.0% 1B $2,700 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
4 Yunel Escobar RIGHT 0.314 0.320 0.094 27.4% 6.8% 12.3% 58.6% 3B $3,000 3B $3,400 3B $6,800
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.311 0.311 0.110 27.7% 5.7% 8.8% 53.8% SS $2,900 SS $4,200 SS $8,100
6 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.325 0.320 0.186 37.1% 13.2% 25.6% 38.0% 3B $2,400 1B/3B $2,700 3B $5,400
7 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.291 0.299 0.161 29.2% 8.7% 22.6% 47.2% C $2,300 C $2,400 C $4,800
8 Ben Revere LEFT 0.249 0.262 0.088 22.2% 4.1% 8.4% 56.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
9 Nick Franklin SWITCH 0.334 0.312 0.180 36.4% 6.6% 20.2% 38.4% OF $2,100 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,400

Elite Plays – Cameron Maybin, Kole Calhoun

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols, Yunel Escobar, Luis Valbuena

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

J.C. Ramirez has traditional splits for a right-handed pitcher. He allows a higher xwOBA (.330) and hard contact rate (35%) to left-handed hitters. This brings Robbie Grossman, Joe Mauer, and Max Kepler into play. In a game where the Twins are projected to score over five runs, we shouldn’t automatically rule out the right-handed power bats of Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.342 0.324 0.234 32.9% 9.3% 19.4% 38.1% 2B $3,300 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
2 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.334 0.322 0.141 27.7% 15.2% 23.5% 40.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
3 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.346 0.391 0.136 34.4% 13.7% 15.0% 47.9% 1B $3,300 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
4 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.349 0.350 0.240 43.9% 11.3% 35.9% 34.6% 3B $3,700 3B $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
5 Max Kepler LEFT 0.346 0.321 0.218 35.3% 9.5% 18.6% 42.3% OF $2,600 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
6 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.303 0.297 0.211 33.1% 8.3% 32.1% 37.3% 1B $2,800 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
7 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.301 0.297 0.112 24.2% 7.7% 13.8% 36.2% SS $3,000 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
8 Jason Castro LEFT 0.323 0.325 0.188 38.0% 12.5% 31.4% 41.1% C $2,700 C $3,300 C $6,400
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.276 0.237 0.153 23.5% 6.4% 35.1% 39.9% OF $2,400 OF $2,600 CF $5,200

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Max Kepler

Secondary Plays – Robbie Grossman, Joe Mauer, Miguel Sano

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami at St. Louis – 2:15 PM ET

Miami St. Louis
miamimlb Jose Urena stlouismlb Lance Lynn
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-135 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.337 31.3% 7.2% 11.0% 39.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.349 0.345 33.6% 13.0% 18.9% 44.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.326 32.0% 8.8% 19.3% 49.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.270 0.285 29.3% 6.3% 26.6% 42.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Urena
jose-urena-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 12 4.66 6.13 15.6% 7.8% 47.7% 32.5% 21.4%
2017 11 5.22 3.42 14.8% 8.3% 39.9% 30.6% 19.4%

Urena is always an easy fade when he’s on the mound. He may have a low ERA, but it’s only a matter of time before that changes. In in 11 starts this season, he has a 5.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. We don’t need to overthink this one; Urena is an easy fade on the road against the Cardinals.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Urena in all formats.

Lance Lynn
lance-lynn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.42 3.90 22.8% 9.6% 43.3% 31.5% 20.2%

Lynn has shown some upside this season with a 23% strikeout rate. His SIERA is higher than his ERA, but we typically don’t mind that as much when a pitcher has an above-average strikeout rate. Lynn is at his best against right-handed hitters, so this will likely come down to how he fares against the left-handed bats of Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, and Justin Bour.

Quick Breakdown: Lynn is far from a core play, but he’s viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

In case you missed it, there was a spoiler in Lance Lynn breakdown. He is significantly worse against left-handed hitters than he is against right-handed hitters. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .345 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to lefties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.300 0.250 0.076 18.4% 5.5% 14.7% 57.1% 2B $3,100 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.341 0.338 0.239 37.0% 9.3% 28.5% 40.7% OF $3,900 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.368 0.381 0.180 39.8% 12.3% 19.7% 54.9% OF $3,600 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.342 0.339 0.197 37.4% 7.6% 20.0% 46.6% OF $4,000 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.358 0.388 0.230 40.1% 11.5% 17.9% 43.7% 1B $3,200 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
6 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.305 0.304 0.109 25.4% 5.6% 10.9% 49.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
7 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.334 0.310 0.122 30.8% 5.5% 16.9% 50.0% C $3,100 C $4,200 C $8,100
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.279 0.286 0.151 40.8% 5.1% 20.3% 49.0% SS $2,200 SS $2,700 SS $5,200
9 Jose Urena RIGHT 0.087 0.106 0.000 10.0% 2.9% 40.0% 62.5% P $7,200 P $6,300 P $12,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

The Cardinals draw a favorable matchup against Jose Urena, who has fairly neutral splits. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .337 xwOBA to lefties and a .326 xwOBA to righties. Outside of Matt Carpenter, the Cardinals tend to get overlooked in DFS. They are a sneaky stack in tournaments and the one through five batters are viable targets in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.384 0.414 0.259 46.6% 16.1% 19.2% 27.2% 1B $3,700 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.354 0.353 0.197 40.0% 9.4% 29.7% 52.6% OF $3,300 OF $4,600 CF $9,000
3 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.333 0.349 0.164 32.9% 8.5% 21.0% 45.4% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.358 0.339 0.256 34.1% 8.8% 23.2% 42.4% 3B $3,200 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.326 0.332 0.124 32.2% 5.9% 11.7% 47.0% C $2,800 C $3,700 C $7,200
6 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.316 0.322 0.230 41.6% 4.7% 30.3% 41.0% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
7 Greg Garcia LEFT 0.337 0.350 0.094 23.9% 15.2% 17.3% 48.3% 2B $2,200 2B/3B $2,700 3B $5,400
8 Alex Mejia RIGHT 0.000 0.019 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SS $2,000 SS $2,600 SS $5,200
9 Lance Lynn RIGHT 0.105 0.123 0.050 33.3% 0.0% 42.9% 60.0% P $7,300 P $6,900 P $13,600

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Stephen Piscotty, Jedd Gyorko, Yadier Molina

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious