MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-29 02:42:35

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

NY Mets at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets					Washington
			Matt Harvey					Lucas Giolito
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -110					8.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.323	19	22.7%	7.1%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.249	7	23.3%	3.3%	SP vs. Right

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Harvey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$6,500
					FPPG:		25.3	FPPG:		12.4
					Pitcher Rating:		67.9	Pitcher Rank:		8
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	92.4	3.87	2.25	20.7%	4.1%	10.2%	41.4%	36.8%	28.6%
2016	15	91.8	4.28	4.64	18.9%	6.0%	10.2%	39.7%	34.7%	30.0%
2015	29	96.5	3.23	2.71	24.9%	4.9%	11.6%	46.0%	36.1%	26.7%

Harvey has been better over the last month of the season, but a 3.87 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 20.7% is a far cry from the numbers he posted a year ago. He has given up a higher hard hit contact rate and he continues to give up too many home runs to left-handed hitters. He may be a favorite tonight against the Nationals, but I much prefer Harvey when he is pitching at home. The main reason to consider him tonight is his price tag on DraftKings. At only $6,500, he is the 15th most expensive pitcher in the slate.

Lucas Giolito
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,400
					FPPG:		0.0	FPPG:		0.0
					Pitcher Rating:		62.5	Pitcher Rank:		12
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%

Giolito is making his major league debut tonight. He has yet to make a start higher than Double-A, so nerves could certainly get the best of him in this one. In 14 minor league starts this season, he posted a 3.23 FIP with a strikeout rate of 23%. The scouting report on Giolito shows that he has a fastball in the mid to high-90s with a devastating curveball. It will be interesting to see if the Nationals keep him around for a while or if they only use him tonight in a spot start. I usually like to avoid pitchers in the major league debuts, but Giolito is on my radar in GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets’ offense is still missing a few key pieces. Despite always getting favorable odds from Vegas (thanks to their starting rotation), the Mets have been a team to pick on when it comes to opposing pitchers. While Lucas Giolito will be making his major league debut tonight, it’s always difficult trying to predict how these outings will go. I prefer the left-handed bats in this lineup, but will likely be avoiding both Giolito and the Mets’ offense.

• Mets Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (20 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.176 (9 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.8% (24 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.65 (28 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.94 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker

Stackability – NONE

Washington

The Nationals may not have the best matchup on paper, but that doesn’t mean that we have to automatically avoid all of their hitters. Over the last two seasons, Matt Harvey has allowed a .323 wOBA and 19 home runs to left-handed hitters. The Nationals just happen to have two of the best lefties in baseball in Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy.

• Nationals Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (18 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.163 (15 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.3% (13 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.58 (13 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.06 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – NONE

Texas at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Texas					NY Yankees
			Cole Hamels					CC Sabathia
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX -119					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.286	5	21.7%	8.8%	SP vs. Left	0.260	4	28.3%	7.1%
SP vs. Right	0.301	32	24.8%	7.4%	SP vs. Right	0.342	27	17.2%	7.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Cole Hamels
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$11,300
					FPPG:		38.7	FPPG:		20.3
					Pitcher Rating:		72.3	Pitcher Rank:		7
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	103.0	4.55	1.82	20.4%	10.2%	9.9%	48.4%	37.6%	22.6%
2016	15	103.1	3.96	2.79	23.5%	9.1%	12.3%	50.8%	30.5%	27.9%
2015	32	104.5	3.45	3.65	24.4%	7.1%	13.3%	47.7%	31.4%	27.0%

Hamels hasn’t been quite as dominant as a season ago, but he still boasts a 3.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.5% this year. He still generates a high swinging strike rate (12.3%) and he still induces a high ground ball rate (50.8%). His matchup against the Yankees isn’t nearly as bad as you would think, as New York is actually ranked 26th in both team wOBA and team ISO against southpaws this season. The price on Hamels is a little steep, but this is a spot where I could see him pitching well at a low ownership.

CC Sabathia
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$7,500
					FPPG:		31.9	FPPG:		16.3
					Pitcher Rating:		56.2	Pitcher Rank:		17
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	100.2	4.89	2.54	19.0%	11.6%	9.4%	48.1%	35.4%	28.1%
2016	12	94.7	4.57	2.71	19.9%	9.8%	9.3%	45.2%	36.0%	24.6%
2015	29	93.2	4.08	4.73	18.9%	6.9%	9.1%	45.9%	32.4%	29.1%

Before his last start, I mentioned that Sabathia was eventually going to start giving up hits with runners in scoring position. Even after giving up six runs in his last start, Sabathia has a career best left on-base percentage of 78.2. That’s a number that doesn’t seem sustainable for an aging pitcher. We know that SIERA is a much better indicator of future ERA, so we can expect some regression for Sabathia the rest of the way. He can be avoided tonight against a Rangers’ offense that is ranked sixth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

How about that game last night? They had a tarp on the field with no rain for the first 20 minutes of the game and then decided to put the game in a delay in the top of the ninth inning. The Rangers’ manager was livid about the decision, but it eventually worked out in their favor. After a three and a half hour delay, the Rangers came out and scored four runs in the top of the ninth inning to win the game by three runs. Now, let’s get back to tonight’s matchup. CC Sabathia is tough on left-handed hitters, but has allowed a .342 wOBA and 27 home runs to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

• Rangers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.341 (6 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.157 (18 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 19.9% (8 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.88 (7 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.36 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Ryan Rua, Jurickson Profar

Stackability – GPP

NY Yankees

The Yankees have really struggled against left-handed pitching this season. While they have been able to put the ball in play (17.7% strikeout rate), they have been unable to do much damage against southpaws. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against Cole Hamels, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .301 wOBA over the last two seasons.

• Yankees Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.304 (26 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.135 (26 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 17.7% (2 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.11 (22 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.14 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira

Stackability – NONE

Miami at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Miami					Detroit
			Adam Conley					Mike Pelfrey
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -105					9.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.327	1	16.9%	8.8%	SP vs. Left	0.377	12	11.1%	10.4%
SP vs. Right	0.303	12	22.2%	8.7%	SP vs. Right	0.327	11	12.3%	3.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Conley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$7,900
					FPPG:		28.5	FPPG:		14.6
					Pitcher Rating:		50.0	Pitcher Rank:		18
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	104.0	4.28	2.59	21.7%	8.5%	10.0%	40.7%	43.0%	23.0%
2016	15	93.7	4.47	3.56	21.2%	9.8%	9.5%	40.3%	38.1%	27.1%
2015	11	100.2	3.98	3.76	21.0%	7.5%	10.1%	40.6%	40.6%	21.7%

Conley has been a serviceable pitcher for the Marlins this season, posting a 4.47 SIERA (3.56 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 21.2%. There have been a number of times this season where he has made sense as a cheap SP2. Unfortunately, this is not one of those times. Conley has to travel to Detroit to take on the Tigers in an American League ballpark. The total for the game is set at 9.5 runs, which suggests an easy fade for both pitchers.

Mike Pelfrey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		16.1	FPPG:		6.2
					Pitcher Rating:		35.1	Pitcher Rank:		29
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	106.4	5.38	4.01	9.5%	8.8%	5.6%	52.2%	27.0%	22.2%
2016	14	98.7	5.24	4.91	11.0%	8.5%	7.4%	50.2%	28.1%	30.8%
2015	30	88.8	4.59	4.26	12.0%	6.3%	5.6%	50.8%	26.4%	26.1%

The DFS community loves Mike Pelfrey. He is one of those guys that always seems to be in a giving mood. And by that, I mean he gives up a ton of hits and a lot of runs. He is always one of the top pitchers to target hitters against and that isn’t going to change tonight. With a 5.24 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 11.0% on the season, Pelfrey should be avoided in all league formats tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

As mentioned above, targeting hitters against Mike Pelfrey is the cool thing to do these days. He is a low strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and also plays in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .377 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .327 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The best part is that with a game in Coors Field tonight, I expect the Marlins to get overlooked.

• Marlins Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (13 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (26 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 18.9% (6 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.18 (19 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.72 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Ichiro Suzuki, Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Detroit

The Tigers have the fourth highest team total on the board tonight, as they square off against Adam Conley at home. This is a matchup that is perfectly suited for Detroit, as they should have nine right-handed hitters to throw at the southpaw. Even better, Conley has a high walk rate and has allowed a fly ball rate close to 40% over the last two seasons. We could see some home runs in Comerica tonight.

• Tigers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.325 (11 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.167 (10 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 20.8% (13 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.70 (9 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.78 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – Cameron Maybin, Nick Castellanos, Justin Upton

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Boston					Tampa Bay
			Rick Porcello					Chris Archer
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -105					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.325	21	20.6%	5.5%	SP vs. Left	0.285	14	27.9%	8.0%
SP vs. Right	0.334	17	20.3%	4.3%	SP vs. Right	0.298	21	28.7%	8.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$10,300
					FPPG:		33.2	FPPG:		17.0
					Pitcher Rating:		65.0	Pitcher Rank:		11
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	94.8	4.04	4.62	17.5%	3.3%	7.0%	48.3%	35.3%	31.4%
2016	15	101.5	3.84	3.93	20.8%	4.6%	7.2%	46.5%	36.0%	30.3%
2015	28	98.0	3.73	4.92	20.2%	5.2%	8.5%	45.7%	32.5%	32.8%

Porcello has not been in the best of form recently, posting a 4.04 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 17.5% over the last month of play. He has a great chance to bounce back tonight though, as the Rays are ranked 24th in team wOBA and 29th in team K% against right-handed pitching this season. The problem that I have with Porcello is that his recent struggles haven’t been factored into his price. He is a bit too expensive on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Chris Archer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$7,300
					FPPG:		31.5	FPPG:		16.5
					Pitcher Rating:		80.2	Pitcher Rank:		5
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	109.8	3.56	4.83	26.3%	7.3%	13.1%	43.2%	35.2%	32.2%
2016	16	101.3	3.78	4.70	26.6%	9.6%	11.5%	44.7%	33.7%	34.5%
2015	34	101.4	3.08	3.23	29.0%	7.6%	12.8%	46.1%	33.9%	32.2%

Let’s take a quick look at Archer’s career home/road splits:

Home: 3.18 FIP, 26.2% strikeout rate, and a .276 wOBA allowed
Road: 3.81 FIP, .22.8% strikeout rate, and a 306 wOBA allowed

While Archer’s numbers on the road are nothing to scoff at, he has been significantly better at Tropicana Field. Archer is not having a great season thus far, but his indicators don’t look nearly as bad as his 4.70 ERA. This could be a good opportunity to buy low on the hard-throwing right-hander. I know the Red Sox are always a tough matchup, but at $7,300 on DraftKings, Archer will be on my radar in both cash games and GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox may have the best offense in baseball, but they come into tonight’s game with the fifth lowest team total on the board. That goes to show just how much faith the oddsmakers have in Chris Archer tonight. Given the low team total and the high player salaries, the Red Sox are an easy offense to fade in cash games tonight.

• Red Sox Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.355 (1 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.187 (6 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 17.9% (3 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.61 (1 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.72 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley Jr., Bryce Brentz (FD)

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

The Rays made quick work of Eduardo Rodriguez and the Red Sox bullpen last night. They scored 13 runs en route to a big win at home. They draw a tougher matchup tonight against Rick Porcello, who is still an above-average pitcher that this stage in his career. With the seventh lowest run projection on the board, there aren’t many Rays’ hitters that look appealing tonight.

• Rays Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.304 (24 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.183 (7 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 24.8% (29 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.11 (23 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.78 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Logan Morrison, Brad Miller

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs					Cincinnati
			Jon Lester					John Lamb
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -235					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.274	5	29.0%	4.7%	SP vs. Left	0.409	4	18.6%	12.8%
SP vs. Right	0.281	21	24.1%	6.1%	SP vs. Right	0.343	12	20.9%	8.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Lester
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,100	Salary:		$11,700
					FPPG:		42.1	FPPG:		23.5
					Pitcher Rating:		87.4	Pitcher Rank:		2
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	104.2	2.77	1.46	28.8%	4.3%	12.1%	57.0%	29.1%	25.0%
2016	15	101.2	3.40	2.10	25.7%	6.0%	10.4%	48.0%	33.2%	28.0%
2015	32	99.5	3.19	3.34	25.0%	5.7%	10.4%	48.9%	29.3%	29.0%

Jake Arrieta didn’t fare well against the Reds last night, but his command was off all game. When you walk Billy Hamilton two times, you know that he didn’t have that pinpoint accuracy that we have seen from him in the past. Lester will look to have a better outing against the Reds tonight. He has pitched very well this season, posting a 3.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.7%. He checks in as the largest favorite on the board and it’s hard not to like his matchup. On the season, Cincinnati is ranked 24th in team wOBA and 18th in team K% against left-handed pitching.

John Lamb
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$4,500
					FPPG:		18.8	FPPG:		8.7
					Pitcher Rating:		40.0	Pitcher Rank:		25
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	98.2	4.85	3.10	16.8%	10.1%	6.5%	49.4%	29.6%	30.2%
2016	10	91.8	5.29	4.78	14.7%	10.3%	7.0%	44.5%	34.8%	34.7%
2015	10	91.2	3.56	5.80	26.4%	8.6%	10.6%	37.7%	40.6%	23.4%

Lamb is one of those pitchers that has everything that we are looking for in DFS. Unfortunately, I’m talking about what we are looking for in opposing offenses, not in a pitcher. On the season, he has a 5.29 SIERA with a low strikeout rate (14.7%), a high walk rate (10.3%), and a high hard hit contact rate (34.7%). There are a lot of bad pitchers on the mound tonight, but Lamb grades out as the sixth worst pitching option available.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Have yourself a night Kris Bryant. He hit not one, not two, but three home runs. The Cubs’ stack was the way to go in tournaments and it could be the way to go again tonight. As I mentioned above, John Lamb is a low strikeout pitcher with a high hard hit contact rate. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .409 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .343 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

• Cubs Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.343 (4 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.176 (7 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 20.2% (10 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.28 (3 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.03 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Javier Baez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati

The Reds were able to get to Jake Arrieta last night, but they come into this game with the second lowest run projection on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Jon Lester, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA over the last two seasons. The one area to attack the Lester/Ross combo is with speed. The two have been really bad at throwing out runners over the last couple of years and as we saw last night, the Reds aren’t afraid to run.

• Reds Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.310 (24 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.165 (12 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 22.3% (18 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.31 (16 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.47 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto

Stackability – NONE

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