MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-03 03:23:10

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Arizona at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Arizona						Washington
			Taijuan Walker						Tanner Roark
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-135						8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.312	30.0%	7.2%	23.4%	41.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.287	28.4%	10.7%	18.5%	41.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	29.4%	5.4%	20.2%	46.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.275	21.1%	6.2%	20.9%	54.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Taijuan Walker
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30
	2016	25	4.13	4.22	20.8%	6.5%	44.1%	28.6%	20.8%
	2017	5	3.25	3.94	26.4%	5.6%	43.9%	34.9%	14.5%

Tuesdays are always fun and always a little taxing. There are 15 games on the schedule and all of them are included in the main slate. First up, we have the Diamondbacks and Nationals. Walker has pitched well so far this season, boasting a 3.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26%, but his biggest problem at the major league level has been allowing too many home runs. Nationals Park may not be the most hitter-friendly ballpark around, but this Washington lineup is loaded with power hitters against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: In a full slate, we can find better options than Walker pitching on the road in a tough matchup.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$15,600
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30
	2016	33	4.32	2.83	20.1%	8.5%	48.7%	24.3%	23.1%
	2017	5	4.35	3.64	16.9%	7.3%	49.4%	26.1%	18.5%

Roark has seen a dip in his strikeout rate. Last year was a bit of an anomaly, as his career strikeout rate is only 18%. He comes into tonight’s game as a small favorite, but the over/under of 8.5 runs is high for a game being played in this ballpark. The Diamondbacks are not an offense that we like to target pitchers against, especially given how often they run when they get on base. A.J. Pollock, David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jake Lamb all have good speed on the base paths.

Quick Breakdown: Given Roark’s limited strikeout upside, he is an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Even though I won’t be targeting Tanner Roark, the Diamondbacks’ offense isn’t in the best spot tonight. Nationals Park is a pitcher-friendly environment and Roark has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. He also has an above-average ground ball rate, especially to right-handed hitters. I may be the biggest A.J. Pollock fan out there, but if you are targeting any Diamondbacks’ hitters tonight, I would look to the left-handed bats of David Peralta and Jake Lamb.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	A.J. Pollock	RIGHT	0.348	0.111	38.3%	8.3%	16.7%	42.0%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,100
2	David Peralta	LEFT	0.344	0.179	39.3%	5.9%	20.4%	49.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,900
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.375	0.189	37.0%	14.5%	20.9%	47.1%	1B	$4,700	1B	$4,900	1B	$9,600
4	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.376	0.276	41.2%	9.9%	25.7%	43.5%	3B	$4,000	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,600
5	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.324	0.226	39.1%	4.4%	24.0%	46.9%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
6	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.310	0.143	31.5%	4.1%	20.2%	49.7%	SS	$3,300	OF/SS	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,200
7	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.240	0.112	34.3%	8.7%	27.1%	37.2%	C	$2,300	C	$2,600	C	$5,200
8	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.226	0.073	27.7%	5.2%	19.9%	47.5%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,400	SS	$4,800
9	Taijuan Walker	RIGHT	0.172	0.000	0.0%	25.0%	25.0%	100.0%	P	$7,400	P	$7,800	P	$15,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – A.J. Pollock (DK), David Peralta, Jake Lamb

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Taijuan Walker has pitched well this season, but this may be his toughest matchup to date. The last time we saw the Nationals, they scored 23 runs against Noah Syndergaard and the Mets. The fact that they scored 23 runs was impressive, but the fact that Anthony Rendon accounted for 12 of them is insane. Anyway, Walker has struggled to keep the ball in the park throughout his career, which makes Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Daniel Murphy are all elite plays tonight, but I prefer to target the Nationals’ hitters individually rather than as a complete team stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.410	0.259	34.4%	4.8%	18.4%	43.3%	SS	$4,300	SS	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,200
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.299	0.134	32.0%	10.9%	24.5%	42.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.378	0.233	35.8%	19.0%	15.7%	39.1%	OF	$5,200	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,400
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.316	0.185	34.3%	5.1%	24.1%	45.2%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,000
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.416	0.256	39.0%	5.8%	9.4%	35.4%	2B	$4,300	2B	$4,500	2B	$8,800
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.333	0.172	34.6%	8.7%	18.6%	37.9%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,600
7	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.254	0.108	31.3%	5.1%	29.8%	44.2%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.320	0.180	32.6%	7.3%	17.5%	37.1%	C	$3,100	C	$3,200	C	$6,300
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.189	0.018	8.3%	7.1%	24.3%	57.9%	P	$8,300	P	$8,000	P	$15,600

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Toronto						NY Yankees
			Mat Latos						Masahiro Tanaka
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-200						9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.323	28.8%	12.6%	11.5%	38.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.280	32.0%	4.0%	19.7%	51.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.350	31.7%	8.2%	14.8%	47.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.286	31.7%	5.8%	20.4%	47.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mat Latos
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$11,600
	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30
	2016	12	5.40	4.89	13.6%	9.7%	42.9%	30.1%	22.9%
	2017	2	6.47	3.27	10.4%	14.6%	45.7%	31.4%	14.3%

Latos has a 3.27 ERA this season, but I know my readers are smart enough to look beyond that ancient statistic. In his two starts, he has a 6.47 SIERA with more walks (seven) than strikeouts (five). He is not a good pitcher at this stage of his career and he has to face a red-hot Yankees team that has one of the best records in all of baseball.

Quick Breakdown: I have a feeling that short porch in right field is going to have a few baseballs come its way tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Masahiro Tanaka
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$9,800	Salary:		$18,800
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2016	31	3.79	3.07	20.5%	4.5%	48.2%	32.5%	18.5%
	2017	5	4.27	4.20	17.3%	7.9%	55.4%	28.0%	21.5%

Tanaka has seen a significant decline in his strikeout rate so far this season, but his ground ball rate is up and his hard contact rate is down. That’s a trade-off that the Yankees are certainly fine with, although in DFS, we would rather have the higher strikeout rate. I’m not overly concerned though, as his velocity is similar to where it was a year ago and his swinging strike rate is actually up to 12.3%. He is just getting those swings early rather than late in the count. I expect some positive regression for his strikeout rate moving forward and that could come tonight against the Blue Jays. Sure, they managed to score five runs against Luis Severino last night, but make no mistake about it. The current Blue Jays’ lineup is dreadful and they have six projected starters with a strikeout rate of at least 20% against right-handed pitching. I should also mention that the current roster for Toronto is 19-for-107 with 29 strikeouts against Tanaka in the past.

Quick Breakdown: I hope people see Tanaka’s low strikeout rate and fade him, because I see him as one of the best buys in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

I’ve been off of the Blue Jays offense for a while now and I don’t plan to start playing them in a bad matchup against Masahiro Tanaka. In addition to the struggles that they have had against him historically, Tanaka has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. Feel free to target the Blue Jays’ offense if you’d like, but I’m vehemently on the Tanaka side of this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.297	0.116	26.2%	4.6%	15.4%	48.9%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,600
2	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.348	0.198	39.1%	17.4%	21.8%	37.4%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,100
3	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.309	0.187	42.1%	8.7%	19.7%	49.2%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.320	0.193	41.1%	11.1%	36.4%	26.6%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,000	1B	$6,000
5	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.326	0.171	30.0%	11.5%	26.9%	47.5%	C	$3,100	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
6	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.326	0.137	29.1%	9.6%	17.2%	47.1%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,400	1B	$6,600
7	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.322	0.155	31.0%	5.8%	20.1%	47.3%	2B	$2,000	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,600
8	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.250	0.144	30.2%	6.6%	22.8%	50.0%	2B	$2,300	2B/SS	$2,300	2B	$4,400
9	Chris Coghlan	LEFT	0.274	0.129	28.9%	10.9%	25.8%	45.9%	OF	$2,000	3B/OF	$2,600	IF/OF	$5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

I have a hard time seeing the Blue Jays’ offense scoring many runs tonight, so the over/under of 9.0 runs seems a bit high. However, the Yankees may be able to cover the run total on their own, as they draw an excellent matchup against Mat Latos. Latos may not allow a lot of hard contact, but he has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball. The Yankees will be able to put the ball in play and good things tend to happen when they do. This is also a good matchup for stolen bases, as Latos has allowed the third highest SB/inning rate of any pitcher in tonight’s slate. A Yankees’ stack is firmly in play here and the one through six hitters are all viable in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.333	0.115	27.2%	13.2%	16.8%	49.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,800
2	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.333	0.168	31.4%	11.5%	25.9%	42.1%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,800
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.331	0.180	35.5%	9.8%	19.3%	52.4%	OF	$3,000	1B/OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,800
4	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.326	0.127	27.1%	9.3%	12.6%	47.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,500
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.327	0.171	30.8%	3.9%	19.1%	50.5%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.304	0.177	25.1%	3.4%	15.7%	40.8%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,200
7	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.355	0.298	48.8%	9.5%	35.4%	41.3%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,600
8	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.234	0.115	44.1%	12.9%	29.0%	30.3%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,600
9	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.290	0.119	21.7%	5.0%	17.6%	42.9%	C	$2,600	C	$2,700	C	$5,400

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Chase Headley, Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro, Aaron Judge

Stackability – GREEN

Cleveland at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cleveland						Detroit
			Corey Kluber						Justin Verlander
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-110						8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.291	29.2%	7.3%	23.5%	44.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.274	27.2%	8.1%	30.7%	29.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.273	30.1%	6.5%	29.0%	42.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.280	32.2%	5.5%	24.4%	36.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Corey Kluber
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,300	Salary:		$11,600	Salary:		$22,500
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2016	32	3.50	3.14	26.4%	6.6%	44.5%	27.6%	19.9%
	2017	5	3.63	4.19	26.2%	8.5%	38.0%	42.4%	20.7%

This game features two ace pitchers and two great offenses and I want no part of it. Strange, isn’t it? Kluber has allowed a few more runs than usual this season, but his peripheral statistics are nearly identical to where they were a year ago. He still owns a 26% strikeout rate with a low SIERA. While he certainly has strikeout upside tonight against a right-handed heavy Tigers’ offense, this is not an ideal matchup. Eight of the Tigers’ projected starters have at least a .335 wOBA and at least a 36% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: At Kluber’s price point, I’d rather pay up to get Chris Sale, or save a little money and go down to James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, or Carlos Martinez.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Justin Verlander
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$20,100
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30
	2016	34	3.42	3.04	28.1%	6.3%	33.7%	28.9%	19.7%
	2017	5	4.23	4.60	23.8%	10.3%	31.3%	36.1%	8.4%

Verlander has not had a great start to the season. He has a 4.23 SIERA with a walk rate of 10% and a hard contact rate of 36%. He is only inducing a soft contact rate of 8%, which is incredibly low. To make matters worse, he has to face an Indians’ offense that has had his number in the last couple of seasons. In their first meeting this year, Verlander gave up nine runs in only four innings of work. We don’t like to target pitchers against the Indians, especially one that are in bad form and that are expensive.

Quick Breakdown: It would take a much steeper discount than the one we are getting for me to play Verlander against the Indians.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Even though I want no part of Justin Verlander, there are offenses in better matchups than the Indians tonight. If you look at his stats since the start of last season, Verlander has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA and has at least a 24% strikeout rate against batters from both sides of the plate. Carlos Santana could be an intriguing one-off target that should be less than 5% owned. He has eight home runs against Verlander in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.381	0.269	38.4%	15.5%	16.0%	36.6%	1B	$4,100	1B/OF	$3,800	1B	$7,600
2	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.363	0.172	28.1%	9.5%	12.1%	47.8%	SS	$4,200	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,100
3	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.341	0.186	41.7%	7.4%	14.9%	45.8%	OF	$4,200	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,600
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.366	0.260	38.2%	11.0%	21.3%	38.0%	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,800
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.367	0.170	25.3%	7.6%	9.8%	38.5%	3B	$4,100	2B/3B	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,800
6	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.346	0.191	38.5%	9.9%	19.9%	36.9%	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,800
7	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.335	0.164	27.3%	5.1%	16.1%	35.1%	OF	$3,200	OF	$2,900	IF/OF	$5,700
8	Abraham Almonte	SWITCH	0.318	0.132	33.6%	7.5%	21.8%	45.5%	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,900	RF	$5,700
9	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.194	0.136	29.2%	3.9%	25.8%	41.0%	C	$2,400	C	$2,600	C	$5,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

The Tigers are in the same position as the Indians. I want no part of their offense against an elite pitcher like Corey Kluber. Could they knock him around a bit? Sure, but I’m not going to bank on it, especially when we have so many other good matchups to exploit in this slate. It looks like Miguel Cabrera is going to play tonight, which bolsters this lineup and makes Kluber an even easier fade. Once again, this is one of those games where I plan to avoid altogether.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.341	0.175	34.3%	7.1%	16.7%	33.1%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,600
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.372	0.210	40.0%	7.4%	24.8%	32.2%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,800
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.398	0.258	41.2%	10.1%	16.8%	40.4%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,400
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.338	0.181	41.1%	8.1%	14.9%	37.5%	C	$2,900	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,600
5	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.342	0.234	39.2%	8.9%	28.3%	39.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
6	Tyler Collins	LEFT	0.336	0.153	36.2%	8.0%	23.5%	33.3%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,500	CF	$4,800
7	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.368	0.209	41.0%	17.9%	35.0%	42.9%	C	$2,700	1B/C	$2,600	C	$5,100
8	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.516	0.263	47.1%	0.0%	10.5%	47.1%	1B	$2,300	1B/C	$2,500	C	$4,800
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.273	0.063	15.4%	5.0%	10.8%	55.8%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,400	SS	$4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tyler Collins, Victor Martinez (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore						Boston
			Alec Asher						Chris Sale
			RIGHT						LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-240						8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.242	29.7%	5.0%	12.5%	31.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.243	24.7%	2.6%	30.9%	55.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.244	28.6%	4.7%	14.1%	40.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.275	32.9%	5.3%	26.6%	38.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Alec Asher
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$4,500	Salary:		$8,800
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30
	2016	5	5.12	2.28	11.7%	3.6%	35.2%	30.4%	22.8%
	2017	1	4.59	2.16	18.2%	9.1%	35.0%	23.8%	19.1%

The chalk offenses have let us down a number of times already this season (the Cubs last night), but it’s hard to see the Red Sox putting up a dud tonight against Asher. In his six major league starts, he has a SIERA over 5.00 with a strikeout rate just over 12%. He is a fly-ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate. That doesn’t sound like a good combination for a guy making his first start in Fenway Park.

Quick Breakdown: There are some gas cans on the mound tonight, but Asher may be my least favorite pitcher in the slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Sale
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,700	Salary:		$12,500	Salary:		$24,300
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2016	32	3.43	3.34	25.7%	5.0%	41.2%	31.7%	17.0%
	2017	5	2.07	1.19	37.4%	4.3%	41.8%	32.5%	17.5%

I really hope people that played Clayton Kershaw last night will be hesitant to play Sale tonight. Paying up for elite arms doesn’t always work out, but Kershaw just wasn’t hitting his spots last night. There could be more to his calf injury than the Dodgers were letting on. Anyway, Sale has been a monster this season. In fact, he has been a Monstar (Space Jam, anyone?). In five starts, he has a 2.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 37%, a walk rate of 4%, and a swinging strike rate of 17%. The White Sox wanted him to pitch to contact more last season, but the Red Sox are just letting him loose this year. He is attacking every single hitter that he faces and the strikeouts are coming in bunches. Even if he gives up a couple of runs tonight against the Orioles, Sale’s strikeouts will more than make up for it.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is by far the top pitching option in the slate and he’s getting close to that “fade at your own risk” territory.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles have three hitters that hit left-handed pitching well – Joey Richard, Manny Machado, and Welington Castillo. Could they potentially get a few hits against Chris Sale? Of course, but I’m not targeting any hitters against a pitcher with a 37% strikeout rate, even in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.359	0.160	29.0%	7.8%	17.6%	38.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	RF	$5,600
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.263	0.101	30.9%	6.7%	21.2%	40.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,000
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.396	0.225	40.5%	10.9%	12.9%	38.6%	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,800	3B	$9,200
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.257	0.181	37.0%	6.0%	26.5%	42.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,000
5	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.356	0.229	52.3%	7.7%	23.7%	40.2%	C	$2,700	C	$3,500	C	$6,900
6	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.336	0.326	28.6%	2.3%	34.1%	53.6%	1B	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,200	1B	$6,400
7	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.286	0.153	21.1%	4.8%	23.4%	48.9%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
8	Craig Gentry	RIGHT	0.262	0.102	14.3%	10.5%	26.3%	63.6%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100	LF	$6,000
9	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.312	0.153	42.0%	8.8%	15.0%	46.4%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston

The Red Sox have the second highest implied run total in the slate and figure to be a chalky stack in tonight’s slate. Seeing as how they have failed to give Chris Sale any run support this season, part of me wants to fade the highly owned Red Sox. However, all it takes to reel me back in is a quick look at Alec Asher strikeout and fly-ball rates. The Red Sox should be able to get to Asher early and if they do, they will be able to feast on the Orioles’ bullpen. A Red Sox stack is viable in tournaments and the one through six hitters are all worth a look in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.352	0.123	33.8%	7.6%	10.0%	50.8%	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,400
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.399	0.213	35.4%	7.7%	14.9%	34.6%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,800
3	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.386	0.203	33.5%	7.4%	10.8%	41.9%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,000	RF	$9,600
4	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.339	0.183	37.0%	8.9%	19.6%	49.2%	1B	$3,700	1B/OF	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,200
5	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.309	0.190	38.7%	7.8%	22.6%	39.6%	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,500
6	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.339	0.136	28.6%	7.2%	16.7%	47.5%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,600	SS	$9,000
7	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.364	0.245	39.0%	10.4%	22.0%	47.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,700
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.298	0.124	33.3%	6.0%	26.0%	44.4%	C	$2,300	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
9	Marco Hernandez	SWITCH	0.284	0.075	27.4%	5.9%	21.2%	56.5%	SS	$2,200	2B/SS	$3,100	3B	$6,000

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland (DK)

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez (FD), Mitch Moreland (FD), Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay						Miami
			Alex Cobb						Edinson Volquez
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			MIA-130						8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.479	33.8%	7.8%	13.7%	43.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.352	35.5%	10.8%	16.7%	46.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	42.0%	3.9%	18.0%	56.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.338	29.8%	7.6%	16.9%	54.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30
	2016	5	4.50	8.59	15.4%	6.7%	52.5%	29.6%	17.3%
	2017	5	4.04	4.66	16.7%	4.8%	49.0%	45.5%	9.1%

Cobb has not been the same pitcher since returning from Tommy John surgery. In ten starts over the last two seasons, he has a SIERA over 4.20 with a strikeout rate right around 16%. I was hoping that being a year removed from the surgery would help, but his numbers this year aren’t any better. He has allowed a 45% hard contact rate, which is the highest of any pitcher in the slate. Until he can recover some of his past form, he can be avoided in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Even in this big ballpark, Cobb is an easy fade in a full slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Edinson Volquez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30
	2016	34	4.72	5.37	16.3%	8.9%	51.2%	31.7%	19.5%
	2017	5	4.76	4.44	20.9%	12.7%	40.8%	42.5%	16.4%

Volquez is a pitcher that finds himself on my radar once or twice a season. He has a below-average strikeout rate, he walks too many batters, and just doesn’t fit the mold of what we are looking for in a pitcher. The Rays do strikeout at a high rate against right-handed pitching, but they also have a lot of firepower in their lineup. I prefer Volquez over Alex Cobb, but that’s not saying a whole lot. There are better pitching options in tonight’s full slate.

Quick Breakdown: Volquez sees a small bump in his strikeout upside in this matchup, but it’s not enough to warrant consideration in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Even though this game is being played in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, both of these offenses are intriguing tournament targets. Since the start of last season, Edinson Volquez has allowed a .335+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. He has also give up a 35% hard contact rate and an 11% walk rate to lefties. Corey Dickerson and Brad Miller are both cheap on DraftKings and are both intriguing one-off targets, as they should fly under the radar.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.340	0.266	31.2%	6.5%	22.4%	34.0%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.306	0.147	30.2%	9.3%	18.1%	45.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,600
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.352	0.252	36.7%	6.2%	21.5%	33.0%	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,000
4	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.335	0.240	36.2%	8.9%	25.2%	45.8%	SS	$3,100	2B	$3,600	SS	$7,200
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.333	0.178	31.5%	7.9%	31.3%	40.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,900
6	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.325	0.200	36.5%	9.7%	21.4%	42.6%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,400
7	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.237	0.137	32.0%	6.3%	32.8%	34.2%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,200
8	Shane Peterson	LEFT	0.321	0.152	26.1%	2.9%	28.6%	39.1%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,100	LF	$4,000
9	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.312	0.200	27.3%	0.0%	31.3%	50.0%	SS	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,400	SS	$4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

The sample size is still small (ten starts), but Alex Cobb has been obliterated by left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. During that stretch, he has allowed a .479 wOBA, a 34% hard contact rate, and he has only struck out 14% of the batters that he has faced. Dee Gordon and Justin Bour are both in excellent spots, but Christian Yelich is the play that I want to highlight here. For a hitter that has such a high ISO and hard contact rate against right-handed pitching, it’s crazy that he has a 55% ground ball rate. Cobb has had a decent ground ball rate in his career, but that number is down quite a bit to start the year (49%). I’m expecting a lot of line drives to come off the bat of Yelich tonight. Giancarlo Stanton is also worth a look in tournaments given his home run upside.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.295	0.077	19.0%	5.2%	16.5%	56.7%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,000
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.304	0.110	25.4%	5.7%	11.0%	49.1%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,600
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.377	0.207	40.7%	11.9%	19.8%	55.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,100
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.329	0.229	39.1%	9.8%	30.0%	38.3%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,800
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.325	0.173	36.6%	7.5%	20.0%	46.5%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
6	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.345	0.224	37.9%	12.1%	16.4%	43.5%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,300
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.350	0.119	30.5%	5.1%	15.7%	50.3%	C	$2,800	C	$3,500	C	$6,900
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.258	0.071	29.5%	5.0%	11.6%	48.6%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,600	SS	$5,200
9	Edinson Volquez	RIGHT	0.240	0.000	12.5%	0.0%	33.3%	71.4%	P	$6,500	P	$7,200	P	$14,400

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 2nd

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Stackability Rating System:

Arizona at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – A.J. Pollock (DK), David Peralta, Jake Lamb

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Chase Headley, Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro, Aaron Judge

Stackability – GREEN

Cleveland at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tyler Collins, Victor Martinez (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland (DK)

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez (FD), Mitch Moreland (FD), Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour

Stackability – YELLOW

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