MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-13 00:58:51

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Washington
			Julio Teheran							Gio Gonzalez
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-170							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.335	0.353	37.2%	12.1%	17.2%	38.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.224	0.253	22.5%	8.2%	21.4%	54.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	0.291	24.7%	4.6%	20.5%	38.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.287	0.299	30.1%	9.8%	22.6%	43.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Julio Teheran
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$13,800
	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30
	2016	30	3.93	3.21	22.0%	5.4%	39.1%	33.1%	17.7%
	2017	28	4.90	4.77	18.6%	8.8%	38.7%	31.6%	20.8%
	L30	5	4.49	2.81	22.7%	9.1%	35.2%	30.3%	19.1%

Teheran hasn’t had the best of seasons, posting a 4.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 9%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that really struggles with left-handed power. While the Nationals are still without Bryce Harper, they still have Daniel Murphy and Adam Lind. They are also a tough offense to strikeout, as they currently have the tenth lowest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: As an underdog on the road against a talented offense, Teheran is an easy fade.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gio Gonzalez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$10,700	Salary:		$20,700
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2016	32	3.96	4.57	22.4%	7.7%	47.6%	32.7%	18.1%
	2017	28	4.45	2.50	22.3%	9.4%	45.9%	28.4%	22.1%
	L30	5	4.55	2.08	20.3%	8.9%	48.2%	24.4%	24.4%

Gonzalez continues to have a massive gap between his ERA and his SIERA, which continues to suggest regression moving forward. I have a hard time buying in on pitchers that are getting “lucky,” especially when they are overpriced in DFS. For his talent level, Gonzalez should be a thousand dollars cheaper across the industry. I know that he’s a large favorite and is playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but the Braves have actually hit southpaws well this season. They are currently ranked eighth in team wOBA and fourth in strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez is overpriced for a low-strikeout matchup against the Braves.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

While I’m not a fan of Gio Gonzalez in this spot, I won’t be doubling down on my Gio fade by targeting the Braves. We have 14 games on the schedule tonight, so it shouldn’t be difficult to find an offense with a better matchup and hopefully in a better hitter’s park. On the season, Gonzalez has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.316	0.259	0.072	18.1%	7.2%	9.8%	62.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,000
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.439	0.414	0.303	41.9%	12.8%	7.7%	40.0%	2B	$3,500	2B	$2,900	2B	$5,700
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.366	0.339	0.238	34.2%	9.2%	25.0%	38.2%	1B	$4,000	1B/3B	$4,900	1B	$9,600
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.292	0.379	0.111	33.3%	11.5%	15.4%	52.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,600
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.339	0.315	0.138	29.4%	7.6%	15.3%	50.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
6	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.502	0.423	0.457	41.9%	7.5%	5.7%	27.9%	C	$3,300	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
7	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.340	0.324	0.143	37.9%	13.4%	18.6%	44.6%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000
8	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.452	0.362	0.297	32.0%	4.5%	20.9%	40.0%	SS	$3,000	3B/SS	$3,200	SS	$6,400
9	Julio Teheran	RIGHT	0.123	0.192	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	20.0%	28.6%	P	$7,300	P	$7,000	P	$13,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies (DK & FDRFT)

Stackability – RED

Washington

Julio Teheran is a pitcher that I like to pick on with speed and with left-handed power. On the season, he has allowed a .353 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to lefties, which brings Daniel Murphy, Adam Lind, and Matt Wieters into play. Teheran also has the second highest stolen base rate of any pitcher in the slate, which brings Trea Turner and Michael Taylor into the mix. This isn’t an offense that I plan to have a ton of exposure to, but there are certainly some viable plays here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.359	0.324	0.197	26.5%	6.5%	17.5%	50.9%	SS	$4,400	SS	$5,400	IF/OF	$10,500
2	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.366	0.308	0.147	28.2%	5.5%	21.9%	63.6%	OF	$3,600	2B/OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,400
3	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.385	0.368	0.229	35.1%	9.1%	11.2%	33.2%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,300
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.370	0.364	0.235	38.2%	7.6%	23.0%	47.4%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,400
5	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.379	0.357	0.214	33.8%	12.8%	14.6%	35.0%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,600	3B	$8,800
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.268	0.295	0.113	29.8%	7.2%	19.0%	41.6%	C	$2,700	C	$2,500	C	$4,800
7	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.334	0.291	0.224	34.3%	7.0%	31.8%	42.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
8	Alejandro De Aza	LEFT	0.185	0.204	0.059	25.0%	5.3%	31.6%	40.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100	CF	$6,000
9	Gio Gonzalez	LEFT	0.132	0.155	0.000	9.7%	5.6%	37.0%	54.2%	P	$9,000	P	$10,700	P	$20,700

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Howie Kendrick, Matt Wieters, Michael Taylor, Adam Lind

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Miami								Philadelphia
			Dillon Peters							Nick Pivetta
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-100							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.000		0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	100.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.319	0.294	29.0%	11.1%	24.3%	41.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.291	0.284	19.2%	11.4%	29.6%	65.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.414	0.359	42.4%	8.6%	23.4%	42.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dillon Peters
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30

	2017	2	3.25	2.25	29.8%	10.6%	67.9%	17.9%	32.1%
	L30	2	3.25	2.25	29.8%	10.6%	67.9%	17.9%	32.1%

Peters has pitched well in his first two starts, but will make his first appearance on the road tonight in Philadelphia. I have a feeling Peters could end up being a trendy play tonight in tournaments, but I’m not buying the hype just yet. He made the jump straight from Double-A where he posted a 22% strikeout rate. Do we really expect his strikeout rate to be significantly higher in the majors than it was at the Double-A level? Maybe eventually, but I’m expecting him to be around the major league average the rest of the season. This is a tough ballpark to pitch in and the Phillies have plenty of right-handed hitters to throw at the rookie.

Quick Breakdown: Peters has impressed thus far, but I’m not buying into his high strikeout rate at the major league level.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nick Pivetta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30

	2017	22	4.37	6.49	23.8%	9.8%	42.2%	36.1%	16.7%
	L30	5	3.83	7.25	27.1%	10.3%	54.5%	26.9%	22.4%

Pivetta may have a 7.25 ERA in his last five starts, but his peripheral statistics look good other than his high walk rate. During that stretch, he has a SIERA under 4.00 with a strikeout rate of 27% and a ground ball rate of 55%. If I’m taking a pitcher from this game (which is unlikely), I’d rather take a shot on Pivetta, who has 20 more major league starts under his belt than Dillon Peters. Tonight’s matchup against the Marlins is mediocre, as Miami is ranked right around the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown:

Batter Grind Down

Miami

We should always take young pitcher’s splits with a grain of salt, because we usually don’t have a big enough sample size to work with. However, after 22 major league starts, it’s safe to assume that Nick Pivetta reverse-splits are real. He has held left-handed hitters to a .294 xwOBA and a 29% hard contact rate, while allowing a .359 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. This is one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in baseball, which makes Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna intriguing one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.317	0.259	0.076	18.1%	5.2%	14.1%	54.6%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,400
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.397	0.385	0.337	37.3%	10.6%	26.4%	42.5%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,700	RF	$11,100
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.365	0.367	0.169	37.9%	12.5%	19.4%	55.0%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600	CF	$8,800
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.390	0.364	0.263	40.6%	9.1%	22.4%	44.6%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,900	LF	$9,600
5	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.318	0.323	0.159	32.0%	5.0%	18.1%	49.7%	C	$2,900	C	$3,700	C	$7,200
6	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.365	0.392	0.245	45.9%	11.3%	21.5%	39.9%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,100
7	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.255	0.245	0.045	33.3%	15.4%	26.9%	66.7%	3B	$2,300	3B	$2,600	3B	$5,100
8	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.283	0.294	0.031	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	52.5%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,600	2B	$5,100
9	Dillon Peters	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$7,500	P	$6,500	P	$12,800

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

With Corey Kluber and Clayton Kershaw both on the mound tonight, we are going to need some value hitters in our lineups (assuming you want to play two of the best pitchers in baseball). The Phillies are an excellent source of value against the rookie Dillon Peters, who I expect to regress once big league hitters figure him out. We have a young lefty pitching on the road in a home run-friendly ballpark. All of the right-handed hitters in this lineup are worth a look.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.342	0.334	0.194	25.2%	7.5%	13.0%	56.9%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,500
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.277	0.265	0.107	22.8%	3.4%	11.4%	39.5%	SS	$3,000	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,700
3	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.553	0.557	0.750	52.6%	26.5%	14.7%	21.1%	OF	$4,100	1B/OF	$4,800	1B	$9,300
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.296	0.308	0.220	27.6%	9.8%	24.2%	43.7%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,300
5	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.279	0.291	0.177	34.6%	8.3%	14.6%	49.1%	3B	$3,000	3B	$2,900	3B	$5,700
6	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.357	0.282	0.183	21.4%	4.6%	27.7%	57.1%	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,100	LF	$6,000
7	Cameron Perkins	RIGHT	0.239	0.247	0.053	25.0%	6.8%	18.2%	50.0%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,100	CF	$4,200
8	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.228	0.258	0.053	7.7%	9.5%	28.6%	53.8%	C	$2,700	C	$2,300	C	$4,400
9	Nick Pivetta	RIGHT	0.000	0.038	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	66.7%	P	$6,400	P	$6,600	P	$13,200

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Tommy Joseph, Maikel Franco

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Toronto
			Dylan Bundy							Joe Biagini
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-120							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.324	0.334	38.3%	8.1%	16.8%	31.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.333	0.285	33.3%	7.6%	22.3%	52.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.295	0.294	32.3%	7.0%	26.2%	35.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.293	28.7%	8.7%	19.0%	60.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dylan Bundy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$17,200
	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30
	2016	14	4.23	4.02	21.9%	8.9%	35.9%	28.0%	23.6%
	2017	26	4.48	4.12	21.7%	7.5%	33.1%	35.3%	18.2%
	L30	4	3.26	3.96	33.0%	8.5%	40.0%	32.8%	18.0%

Bundy struggled a bit in his last outing against the Yankees, but has still been in tremendous form recently. In his last four starts, he owns a 3.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 33%. When a pitcher has a sudden burst in his k-rate, I always like to look at his swinging strike rate and velocity to see anything has changed. There hasn’t been a change in velocity, but something is clearly working. His swinging strike rate in his last five starts was as follows: 15%, 16%, 20%, 19%, and 11%. To put that into context, his season average is 11.5%. I’m buying in on Bundy, at least in the short term. He’s one of my favorite tournament plays tonight against the Blue Jays.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy is too volatile to trust in cash games, but he’s one of my favorite GPP targets in the slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Joe Biagini
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30
	2016	0	3.45	3.06	21.0%	6.4%	52.2%	23.0%	17.7%
	2017	14	4.06	5.29	20.4%	8.2%	57.0%	30.7%	17.4%
	L30	3	4.00	6.43	23.2%	10.1%	58.7%	28.3%	10.9%

Biagini has really struggled with consistency this season and his last two starts are a great example of that. After striking out ten hitters against the Orioles in seven innings of work, he only struck out two against the Red Sox while giving up five earned runs. I’m always a fan of pitchers that have an elite ground ball rate and at least an average strikeout rate and he draws a favorable matchup tonight against a right-handed heavy Orioles’ offense. At $5,600 on DraftKings, he may be the answer to unlocking Corey Kluber and a few big bats.

Quick Breakdown: It’s always scary targeting pitchers against the Orioles, but Biagini is so cheap that he is viable as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles struggled with Joe Biagini in their last matchup and while he has struggled with consistency this season, there isn’t anything that really stands out from a splits perspective. On the season, Biagini has an elite ground ball rate (58%) and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA. The Orioles hit plenty of home runs, so I’m not going to fade them completely, but I don’t see any of their hitters as elite plays tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.344	0.317	0.177	41.0%	5.3%	29.1%	47.7%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,100
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.341	0.364	0.221	37.9%	7.9%	16.5%	43.1%	3B	$4,200	3B	$5,200	3B	$10,200
3	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.358	0.312	0.200	33.5%	4.3%	20.5%	40.9%	2B	$3,700	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,600
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.336	0.310	0.195	31.2%	3.4%	17.8%	44.5%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.369	0.348	0.238	35.5%	6.5%	22.9%	51.8%	OF	$3,200	1B/OF	$3,100	IF/OF	$6,000
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.326	0.341	0.258	45.1%	11.9%	35.0%	35.6%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,800
7	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.289	0.303	0.162	31.2%	7.5%	24.5%	43.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,400
8	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.303	0.268	0.145	26.2%	3.9%	26.1%	45.6%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	C	$5,700
9	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.339	0.350	0.179	36.9%	9.7%	21.2%	42.8%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Trey Mancini

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto

This game may have a total of 9.0 runs, but I have very little interest in both of these offenses. Dylan Bundy has been in terrific form and on the season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .294 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate. If you are targeting any of the Blue Jays’ bats, make sure they hit from the left side of the plate. Ezequiel Carrera, Justin Smoak, and Kendrys Morales are all secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.365	0.296	0.147	26.3%	8.1%	21.6%	48.5%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900	RF	$5,600
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.384	0.377	0.265	33.0%	15.8%	23.8%	41.2%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,800	3B	$9,200
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.362	0.384	0.277	40.7%	10.2%	22.7%	34.2%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,400
4	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.314	0.325	0.184	35.0%	13.1%	23.8%	35.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,800
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.295	0.355	0.197	36.6%	7.0%	22.0%	47.7%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.277	0.295	0.128	26.3%	4.7%	15.2%	45.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,600
7	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.293	0.289	0.153	36.3%	9.9%	22.8%	37.2%	C	$2,400	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
8	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.271	0.275	0.118	29.4%	7.2%	18.6%	46.1%	SS	$2,300	2B/SS	$2,600	2B	$5,200
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.244	0.250	0.106	21.7%	1.5%	15.4%	48.4%	2B	$2,700	2B/3B	$2,900	2B	$5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Detroit								Cleveland
			Matt Boyd							Corey Kluber
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-420							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.349	0.318	24.1%	9.2%	14.5%	55.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.259	0.264	32.1%	6.3%	31.9%	44.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.373	0.333	38.8%	9.2%	18.3%	35.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.228	0.239	28.1%	4.0%	37.8%	44.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Boyd
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$4,800	Salary:		$9,600
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30
	2016	18	4.38	4.53	19.9%	7.0%	38.1%	30.0%	19.2%
	2017	21	5.04	5.93	17.7%	9.2%	38.4%	36.4%	20.3%
	L30	5	4.89	6.84	20.2%	10.5%	36.6%	36.5%	20.0%

It may have happened a time or two already this season, but I can’t remember a team being a -420 favorite. We have the hottest offense in baseball facing an awful pitcher in Boyd. We also have the hottest pitcher in baseball facing an awful offense in the Tigers. Anything can happen in baseball, but I’m expecting a bloodbath here. In 21 starts this season, Boyd has a 5.04 SIERA with a high walk rate and a high hard contact rate.

Quick Breakdown: As the largest underdog in recent memory, Boyd is the easiest fade in the slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Corey Kluber
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,800	Salary:		$13,300	Salary:		$25,800
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2016	32	3.50	3.14	26.4%	6.6%	44.5%	27.6%	19.9%
	2017	25	2.65	2.56	35.0%	5.1%	44.7%	30.1%	23.6%
	L30	6	2.84	2.30	31.9%	3.7%	38.2%	30.1%	26.2%

Kluber has been truly impressive this season. Don’t believe me? Even in a slate that features Clayton Kershaw, Kluber has the best marks in the following stat categories: SIERA (2.65), strikeout rate (35%), and swinging strike rate (16%). He also has the second best walk rate at 5%. He’s basically been unhittable this season and tonight he squares off against a Tigers’ offense that has all but given up. Their projected lineup has a combined .301 xwOBA and a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Oh, and did I mention that Kluber is a -420 favorite?

Quick Breakdown: Kluber is the top pitching option on the board tonight. I don’t recommend fading him in cash games or tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Avoid the Tigers. Corey Kluber is in Terminator mode right now. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .265 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.292	0.308	0.136	34.9%	8.9%	13.9%	35.8%	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,200	2B	$6,400
2	Alex Presley	LEFT	0.327	0.300	0.090	31.5%	6.0%	17.9%	47.2%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,600
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.292	0.380	0.150	44.1%	9.3%	20.3%	40.6%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,100	1B	$6,000
4	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.307	0.347	0.169	44.3%	6.5%	23.9%	37.1%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,400
5	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.330	0.303	0.150	34.8%	6.6%	22.4%	49.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,300
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.289	0.308	0.118	40.7%	6.5%	27.4%	36.8%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,400
7	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.296	0.270	0.125	28.6%	9.3%	24.1%	45.7%	3B	$2,100	1B/3B	$2,600	3B	$5,100
8	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.234	0.228	0.082	28.6%	10.1%	37.7%	55.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700	IF/OF	$5,400
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.300	0.267	0.128	29.4%	4.3%	14.7%	52.4%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

It’s rare in a full slate that my favorite pitcher and my offense are on the same team, but that’s the case tonight with Corey Kluber and the Indians’ offense. If you’ve ever read the Grind Down, then you know how much I love stacking against Matt Boyd. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. He has also given up a .333 xwOBA with a 39% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.380	0.359	0.222	41.4%	8.5%	13.5%	39.4%	SS	$4,500	SS	$5,600	SS	$10,800
2	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.420	0.365	0.239	30.6%	12.1%	19.4%	47.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.377	0.350	0.235	34.3%	6.6%	11.8%	41.5%	2B	$3,800	2B/3B	$5,500	IF/OF	$10,800
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.364	0.392	0.203	38.3%	19.3%	21.8%	45.2%	1B	$4,300	1B	$5,100	1B	$9,900
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.301	0.295	0.207	35.6%	7.0%	26.1%	31.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
6	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.344	0.338	0.186	31.4%	13.3%	8.4%	51.4%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,900	1B	$9,600
7	Yandy Diaz	RIGHT	0.394	0.422	0.081	41.4%	26.0%	16.0%	55.2%	3B	$2,600	3B/OF	$3,300	3B	$6,600
8	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.310	0.306	0.112	22.0%	8.1%	22.0%	38.3%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,400
9	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.364	0.327	0.255	40.3%	10.6%	23.9%	45.1%	C	$2,900	C	$3,400	C	$6,800

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Austin Jackson, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Yandy Diaz, Yan Gomes

Stackability – GREEN

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Tampa Bay
			Sonny Gray							Blake Snell
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-134							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.262	0.292	26.7%	8.1%	22.5%	54.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.240	0.254	30.0%	12.5%	25.0%	47.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.295	0.304	28.6%	7.8%	23.6%	54.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.336	0.315	32.9%	10.4%	19.5%	42.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sonny Gray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$18,600
	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30
	2016	22	4.32	5.69	18.2%	8.1%	53.9%	33.6%	16.1%
	2017	23	3.93	3.22	23.1%	7.9%	54.2%	27.7%	16.4%
	L30	5	4.20	2.64	21.9%	7.0%	47.2%	25.8%	11.2%

Gray is right there with Dylan Bundy as my favorite under-the-radar tournament play at pitcher. I expect him to have slightly higher ownership and he likely has a higher floor, while Bundy has more strikeout upside and a higher ceiling. Gray has an elite ground ball rate, an above-average strikeout rate, and he’s facing a Rays’ offense that isn’t afraid of striking out. On the season, Tampa Bay has the third highest k-rate of any team against right-handed pitching. I also like the fact that this game is being played at Citi Field, so it’s actually more of a home game for the Yankees than it is for the Rays.

Quick Breakdown: Gray is an elite tournament play tonight and he’s viable as an SP2 in cash games as well.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Blake Snell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	2016	19	4.53	3.54	24.4%	12.7%	36.5%	31.4%	22.2%
	2017	20	4.90	4.36	20.3%	10.7%	43.0%	32.5%	19.8%
	L30	5	4.04	3.52	22.1%	5.7%	45.3%	31.0%	19.5%

Snell has shown better command recently and surprise, surprise, he has had much better results. In his last five starts, he has a 4.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 6%. This is something to keep in mind moving forward, but Snell is an easy fade tonight against the Yankees. While they do have a high strikeout rate as a team against southpaws, they are finally healthy and have plenty of right-handed power in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Snell is too volatile to use in cash games and his ceiling isn’t high enough in this matchup to use in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees aren’t playing in the most hitter-friendly ballpark around (Citi Field), they draw a decent matchup against Blake Snell, who is prone to giving up a big outing every now and then. While I like the Yankees’ offense as a whole, I don’t see them as a great stacking option tonight. There are better matchups in better ballparks and we aren’t getting any sort of a discount with the Yankees’ bats. With that said, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Matt Holliday are all intriguing one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.268	0.293	0.081	20.2%	9.7%	18.1%	50.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,000
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.390	0.455	0.275	46.9%	23.4%	31.0%	34.4%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,200	RF	$10,000
3	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.371	0.390	0.269	38.5%	11.1%	22.2%	38.5%	C	$3,800	C	$4,800	C	$9,300
4	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.365	0.336	0.132	33.3%	9.0%	16.0%	52.0%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,600
5	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.377	0.365	0.224	42.3%	15.4%	27.5%	48.1%	OF	$2,800	1B	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,600
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.289	0.270	0.098	15.7%	4.2%	13.3%	35.1%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,000
7	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.309	0.327	0.167	31.1%	5.4%	21.8%	41.5%	1B	$4,000	1B/3B	$3,500	3B	$6,800
8	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.272	0.248	0.098	23.2%	6.7%	24.0%	47.0%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
9	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.345	0.366	0.298	36.4%	14.3%	22.2%	23.4%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez, Starlin Castro, Matt Holliday

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Sonny Gray isn’t a pitcher that I like to target hitters against. He has an elite ground ball rate (54%) and an above-average strikeout rate (23%). He has also held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate this season. I’m basically pulling a complete Rays’ fade tonight in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.364	0.293	0.203	34.6%	8.7%	20.5%	44.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,500
2	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.379	0.386	0.319	44.9%	13.8%	24.6%	27.3%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.332	0.319	0.171	33.6%	5.5%	14.1%	42.2%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,400
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.377	0.384	0.305	40.0%	13.9%	23.8%	32.5%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,000
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.340	0.319	0.230	36.1%	6.6%	23.8%	37.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,600
6	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.269	0.287	0.105	31.8%	3.2%	19.1%	50.3%	SS	$2,800	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,600
7	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.291	0.322	0.123	36.4%	18.7%	27.8%	50.0%	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,700	2B	$5,200
8	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.264	0.299	0.152	31.0%	3.8%	19.5%	47.0%	C	$2,400	C	$2,700	C	$5,400
9	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.308	0.256	0.099	21.2%	9.4%	19.3%	51.8%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100	CF	$6,000

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 12th

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Stackability Rating System:

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies (DK & FDRFT)

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Howie Kendrick, Matt Wieters, Michael Taylor, Adam Lind

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Tommy Joseph, Maikel Franco

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Trey Mancini

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Austin Jackson, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Yandy Diaz, Yan Gomes

Stackability – GREEN

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez, Starlin Castro, Matt Holliday

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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