MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 1st - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-01 22:46:14

LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Dodgers					Chicago Cubs
			Mike Bolsinger					Jon Lester
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -185					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.342	4	17.8%	11.9%	SP vs. Left	0.290	5	27.8%	5.3%
SP vs. Right	0.289	9	23.2%	7.6%	SP vs. Right	0.284	17	23.9%	6.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Mike Bolsinger
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,000
					FPPG:		25.5	FPPG:		12.4
					Pitcher Rating:		53.0	Pitcher Rank:		22
L14 Days	2	77.0	4.41	4.50	19.1%	7.1%	11.0%	34.5%	44.8%	32.3%
2016	2	77.0	4.41	4.50	19.1%	7.1%	11.0%	34.5%	44.8%	32.3%
2015	21	84.7	4.04	3.62	21.0%	9.7%	8.7%	53.1%	29.1%	29.5%

Bolsinger is making his third start of the season, posting a 4.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.1% in his first two. He was a decent source of value last year, but we generally prefer to target him when he has a favorable matchup and when he is pitching at home. That’s not the case today against the Cubs in Wrigley Field. Even though the wind is not blowing out to center, I still give the clear edge to the Cubs’ offense in this matchup.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jon Lester
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,600	Salary:		$9,900
					FPPG:		37.1	FPPG:		20.1
					Pitcher Rating:		94.5	Pitcher Rank:		3
L14 Days	2	90.0	5.01	6.00	18.2%	11.4%	10.6%	40.0%	46.7%	38.7%
2016	10	99.7	3.65	2.48	24.0%	6.9%	9.5%	43.3%	35.4%	29.6%
2015	32	99.5	3.19	3.34	25.0%	5.7%	10.4%	48.9%	29.3%	29.0%

Lester seems to be one of the biggest favorites on the board every time he takes the mound. He hasn’t been sharp in his last two starts, but still owns a 3.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% on the season. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Dodgers, who are ranked 21st in team wOBA and seventh in team K% against left-handed pitching this season. I slightly prefer Max Scherzer, but Lester is considerably cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are ranked below the major league average in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching. To make matters worse, they are facing one of the best southpaws in baseball in Jon Lester. Over the last two seasons, Lester has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA.

Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.298 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.148 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.8% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.39 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.76 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Kike Hernandez	RIGHT	0.447	0.286	0.207	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700
2	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.345	0.170	0.342	3B	$2,900	3B	$2,900
3	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.328	0.129	0.376	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,600
4	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.308	0.081	0.364	2B	$2,700	2B/OF	$3,400
5	Trayce Thompson	RIGHT	0.403	0.298	0.309	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,900
6	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.373	0.228	0.276	SS	$3,600	SS	$3,500
7	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.294	0.189	0.325	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,200
8	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.341	0.113	0.223	C	$2,600	C	$2,700
9	Mike Bolsinger	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$6,000	P	$5,000
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.166	0.269	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kike Hernandez, Howie Kendrick

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs check into tonight’s game with the sixth highest run projection on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against Mike Bolsingner, who is only making his third start since coming back from injury. The main issue that I have with the Cubs is how expensive they are. If I am paying up for hitters tonight, I would much rather target the two teams playing in Coors Field.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.342 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.171 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.6% (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.69 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.74 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.348	0.183	0.393	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,000
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.339	0.147	0.263	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.382	0.213	0.437	3B	$4,000	3B/OF	$5,300
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.389	0.261	0.225	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,400
5	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.354	0.170	0.482	2B	$4,200	2B	$4,900
6	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.312	0.153	0.460	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,800
7	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.325	0.155	0.410	C	$2,800	C	$3,300
8	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.321	0.144	0.225	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,500
9	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.095	0.014	0.000	P	$10,600	P	$9,900
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.160	0.322	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – GPP

Arizona at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Arizona					Houston
			Robbie Ray					Mike Fiers
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -160					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.309	3	23.9%	4.9%	SP vs. Left	0.292	13	21.0%	6.1%
SP vs. Right	0.338	14	22.3%	11.2%	SP vs. Right	0.341	21	22.7%	8.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Robbie Ray
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$8,900
					FPPG:		27.9	FPPG:		13.8
					Pitcher Rating:		56.9	Pitcher Rank:		17
L14 Days	2	99.5	3.75	5.59	27.7%	12.8%	7.5%	57.1%	21.4%	32.1%
2016	10	99.0	3.98	4.67	24.8%	10.7%	10.3%	44.4%	29.1%	35.7%
2015	23	98.1	4.05	3.52	21.8%	9.0%	9.0%	43.3%	34.6%	35.0%

Ray hasn’t been quite as bad as his 4.67 ERA would suggest, but he needs to improve his command before we consider targeting him in DFS. In ten starts this season, he has a 3.98 SIERA with a walk rate over 10%. He draws an awful matchup tonight against the Astros in the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. Ray should be avoided in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Mike Fiers
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,200
					FPPG:		22.0	FPPG:		10.3
					Pitcher Rating:		74.3	Pitcher Rank:		7
L14 Days	2	79.5	4.63	7.59	14.6%	4.2%	12.6%	34.2%	39.5%	39.5%
2016	9	98.2	4.06	5.20	16.1%	3.8%	8.8%	43.1%	27.1%	36.2%
2015	30	101.4	3.84	3.69	23.7%	8.4%	9.8%	37.6%	42.1%	33.5%

Fiers has been rocked in his last couple of starts, which has brought his numbers down on the season. He now owns a mediocre 4.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.1%. He is listed as a sizable favorite tonight against the Diamondbacks, but that has more to do with the favorable matchup against Robbie Ray. Fiers is cheap, but there are better pitching options on the board tonight. He is a deep GPP target at best.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have a mediocre run projection of 4.15 tonight, as they square off against Miek Fiers. He is a pitcher that has historically allowed a lot of home runs, but he has cut down on that this season. I do like the ballpark boost for the Diamondbacks, but see them more as GPP plays rather than cash game targets.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.167 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.7% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.60 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.15 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.287	0.099	0.238	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,900
2	Michael Bourn	LEFT	0.272	0.048	0.425	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,600
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.403	0.247	0.474	1B	$4,300	1B	$4,800
4	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.350	0.174	0.417	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,100
5	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.306	0.179	0.196	C	$2,700	C	$3,000
6	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.325	0.189	0.252	OF	$2,600	3B/OF	$2,500
7	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.288	0.106	0.183	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100
8	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.274	0.096	0.388	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,400
9	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.248	0.112	0.321	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.306	0.139	0.322	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Chris Herrmann

Stackability – NONE

Houston

The Astros have the highest run projection of any team outside of Coors Field tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against the struggling Robbie Ray and they get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. All of the right-handed hitters in this lineup are in play, as Ray has allowed a .338 wOBA to batters from that side of the plate over the last two seasons.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.305 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.150 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 26.6% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.06 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.85 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.405	0.227	0.374	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,500
2	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.423	0.188	0.282	2B	$4,000	2B	$5,000
3	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.347	0.217	0.204	SS	$4,000	SS	$3,600
4	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.311	0.199	0.397	C	$3,300	OF	$3,500
5	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.335	0.183	0.219	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,300
6	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.300	0.286	0.363	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,700
7	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.292	0.119		OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300
8	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.263	0.145	0.397	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,000
9	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.226	0.065	0.330	C	$2,900	C	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.181	0.321	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis (FD)

Secondary Plays – Tyler White, Carlos Gomez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Tampa Bay at Kansas City – 8:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Tampa Bay					Kansas City
			Chris Archer					Danny Duffy
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KC -105					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.274	11	28.9%	7.6%	SP vs. Left	0.249	0	26.0%	5.5%
SP vs. Right	0.306	20	28.1%	9.2%	SP vs. Right	0.338	18	17.3%	9.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chris Archer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$8,300
					FPPG:		30.9	FPPG:		15.9
					Pitcher Rating:		83.5	Pitcher Rank:		5
L14 Days	3	98.3	4.15	4.76	24.0%	10.7%	8.8%	44.9%	42.9%	32.7%
2016	11	97.4	3.80	4.62	26.8%	10.8%	10.6%	45.5%	32.9%	35.7%
2015	34	101.4	3.08	3.23	29.0%	7.6%	12.8%	46.1%	33.9%	32.2%

Archer is not having the season that he, and many others, expected. In 11 starts, he has a 3.80 SIERA (4.62 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 26.8% and a walk rate of 10.8%. His velocity is slightly down this season and so is his swinging strike rate. There is still a lot of time for him to turn things around, but we shouldn’t get too excited about a matchup against the Royals on the road. The price is tempting, but Archer is strictly a GPP play until he can flash some form.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Danny Duffy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$5,700
					FPPG:		8.5	FPPG:		4.9
					Pitcher Rating:		59.8	Pitcher Rank:		15
L14 Days	2	69.5	4.15	4.66	21.1%	0.0%	12.2%	20.7%	58.6%	27.6%
2016	3	151.7	3.04	3.23	27.4%	5.7%	16.9%	33.3%	44.4%	25.6%
2015	24	98.3	4.63	4.08	17.4%	9.0%	8.4%	38.8%	36.5%	29.5%

Duffy is making his fourth start of the season. Even though he has only averaged 62 pitches per start, that number continue to trend upward with each and every start. He could throw 80+ pitches tonight, but that still limits his upside quite a bit. Throw in a difficult matchup against the Rays and Duffy is an easy fade tonight, even though he is pitching at home.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays are a top five offense against left-handed pitching this season, but come into tonight’s game with the fourth lowest team total on the board. They are certainly going to get overlooked in all formats, but I’m not sure that I want to target any of their hitters against Danny Duffy and that strong bullpen.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.346 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.207 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.7% (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.15 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.72 (27 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.391	0.198	0.342	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300
2	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.403	0.329	0.092	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.383	0.220	0.312	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,800
4	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.347	0.234	0.426	OF	$3,900	1B/2B	$3,700
5	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.344	0.205	0.269	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000
6	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.244	0.070	0.485	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,100
7	Desmond Jennings	RIGHT	0.241	0.044	0.141	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,300
8	Taylor Motter	RIGHT	0.559	0.500	0.400	SS	$2,400	3B/SS	$2,800
9	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.324	0.239	0.063	C	$2,100	C	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.360	0.227	0.281	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brandon Guyer, Steve Pearce

Stackability – NONE

Kansas City

The Royals have slowly been picking it up on the offensive end, but they come into tonight’s game with the sixth lowest team total on the board. This is one of those games where we aren’t too excited about the pitchers or about either of the offenses. For the most part, we can just gloss over this game for DFS purposes.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.320 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.141 (22 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.2% (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.96 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.78 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.271	0.059	0.270	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,100
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.373	0.103	0.345	OF	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,400
3	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.332	0.136	0.382	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,200
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.396	0.205	0.371	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,500
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.338	0.214	0.212	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,000
6	Paulo Orlando	RIGHT	0.324	0.197	0.492	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,900
7	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.306	0.134	0.253	3B	$2,300	3B	$2,500
8	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.302	0.126	0.433	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400
9	Drew Butera	RIGHT	0.257	0.093	0.207	C	$2,200	C	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.141	0.329	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Cincinnati at Colorado – 8:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cincinnati					Colorado
			John Lamb					Tyler Chatwood
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			COL -180					11.0
SP vs. Left	0.441	4	20.5%	14.1%	SP vs. Left	0.243	1	15.1%	3.4%
SP vs. Right	0.361	9	22.0%	7.8%	SP vs. Right	0.333	5	15.2%	8.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
John Lamb
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,300	Salary:		$4,700
					FPPG:		11.8	FPPG:		3.9
					Pitcher Rating:		34.5	Pitcher Rank:		29
L14 Days	2	92.0	5.78	8.38	12.2%	12.2%	7.1%	45.7%	37.1%	40.5%
2016	5	85.4	5.61	6.85	12.4%	10.6%	7.5%	39.8%	39.8%	39.1%
2015	10	91.2	3.56	5.80	26.4%	8.6%	10.6%	37.7%	40.6%	23.4%

Remember when I said that the Rockies could score 100 runs last night? They certainly tried their best to accomplish that feat, scoring 17 runs. Another offensive breakout could be coming tonight against Lamb, who has a 5.61 SIERA and a low strikeout rate of 12.4% on the season. Lamb should not be on your radar and if he is, you may want to rethink your daily research routine.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tyler Chatwood
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,300
					FPPG:		32.3	FPPG:		16.3
					Pitcher Rating:		39.7	Pitcher Rank:		25
L14 Days	2	89.0	3.84	0.69	10.0%	4.0%	5.1%	65.1%	20.9%	23.3%
2016	10	96.2	4.06	2.69	15.2%	6.2%	7.8%	59.1%	25.8%	25.8%

Chatwood has done a nice job this season, but we don’t target pitchers in Coors Field. His strikeout isn’t nearly high enough to make up for the damage that will likely be done against him tonight. As always, avoid the pitchers and load up on the bats in Coors.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Typically when a team scores four runs, they have a decent chance of winning the game. That was far from the case last night, as they lost by 13 runs. The Reds come into tonight’s game with the second highest team total on the board. They see a HUGE ballpark boost playing in Coors Field. The only knock on the Reds tonight is that Tyler Chatwood does produce an elite ground ball rate, but that shouldn’t take you off of Cincinnati in cash games.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.289 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.167 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.9% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.90 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.04 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.323	0.190	0.333	SS	$4,000	SS	$3,700
2	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.402	0.231	0.299	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,700
3	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.313	0.122	0.232	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,600
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.325	0.241	0.341	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,600
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.379	0.347	0.371	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,700
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.301	0.159	0.181	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,900
7	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.247	0.053	0.267	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.291	0.090	0.230	C	$2,800	C	$2,500
9	John Lamb	LEFT	0.202	0.077	0.523	P	$5,300	P	$4,700
	Team Averages	—	0.309	0.168	0.309	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Zack Cozart (DK), Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Billy Hamilton

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart (FD), Brandon Phillips, Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez, Tucker Barnhart

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Colorado

The Rockies are coming off of a monster outing against the Reds last night and we could see another one tonight. In addition to one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starter in baseball, John Lamb has allowed a .441 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .361 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Do whatever you can to get as much exposure to the Rockies as possible tonight.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.343 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.200 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.3% (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.86 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.96 (1 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.322	0.141	0.362	OF	$4,600	OF	$4,700
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.331	0.056	0.300	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,900
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.344	0.230	0.266	3B	$4,400	3B	$4,500
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.251	0.148	0.430	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,500
5	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.339	0.174	0.322	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,400
6	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.398	0.309	0.295	SS	$4,200	SS	$5,200
7	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.416	0.277	0.160	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600
8	Dustin Garneau	RIGHT	0.224	0.059	0.313	C	$2,700	C	$2,900
9	Tyler Chatwood	RIGHT	0.110	0.000	0.000	P	$7,700	P	$7,300
	Team Averages	—	0.304	0.155	0.272	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Areando, Carlos Gonzalez, Mark Reynolds, Trevor Story, Ryan Raburn

Secondary Plays – Dustin Garneau

Stackability – Cash & GPP & Cash & GPP & Cash & GPP

Seattle at San Diego – 10:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Seattle					San Diego
			Felix Hernandez					Christian Friedrich
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA -170					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.303	14	18.8%	9.1%	SP vs. Left	0.292	2	17.8%	6.7%
SP vs. Right	0.290	15	26.0%	6.2%	SP vs. Right	0.366	3	15.5%	12.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Editor’s Note: Felix Hernandez scratched; James Paxton to start in his place.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Felix Hernandez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,000	Salary:		$11,000
					FPPG:		33.6	FPPG:		17.5
					Pitcher Rating:		84.4	Pitcher Rank:		4
L14 Days	2	98.0	3.56	4.50	21.6%	7.8%	7.1%	55.9%	17.6%	20.0%
2016	10	100.3	4.24	2.86	19.9%	9.8%	8.5%	53.4%	27.3%	25.3%
2015	31	98.1	3.38	3.53	23.1%	7.0%	10.7%	56.2%	26.9%	25.4%

Despite a higher SIERA, a lower strikeout rate, and a lower swinging strike rate this season, Hernandez is still priced similar to how he was a year ago. The main reason is because his ERA is sitting at 2.86. If we believe in the indicators, we should expect some regression for Hernandez moving forward. However, even with all of that said, you have to at least consider him tonight against the Padres. San Diego is the best pitching matchup available, especially for a right-handed pitcher. This is the first time all season where I may actually consider paying the premium for King Felix.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Christian Friedrich
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$7,200
					FPPG:		28.3	FPPG:		14.3
					Pitcher Rating:		54.4	Pitcher Rank:		21
L14 Days	2	89.5	4.74	1.74	15.6%	8.9%	5.6%	51.6%	32.3%	41.2%
2016	3	98.3	5.50	1.65	15.3%	13.9%	6.1%	53.2%	34.0%	33.3%
2015	0	0	4.20	5.25	16.7%	9.3%	11.2%	47.4%	29.4%	28.1%

Friedrich is going to get blown up here shortly. The difference between his SIERA and ERA is nearly four runs. Regression is going to hit and it is going to hit hard. His walk rate is nearly as high as his strikeout rate and he hasn’t fared well against right-handed hitters in his career. Don’t get sucked in by the low ERA.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners have really hit the ball well this season, ranking seventh in runs scored per game. Even though Petco Park is known as a pitcher’s park, you have to like the matchup against Christian Friedrich, who has allowed a career .376 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Mariners Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.313 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.174 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.9% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.71 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.91 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.296	0.031	0.309	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500
2	Franklin Gutierrez	RIGHT	0.398	0.276	0.485	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,000
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.312	0.146	0.412	2B	$4,300	2B	$4,700
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.442	0.319	0.437	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,800
5	Dae-ho Lee	RIGHT	0.325	0.205	0.370	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,000
6	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.331	0.209	0.391	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,300
7	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.355	0.164	0.135	C	$2,200	C	$3,000
8	Luis Sardinas	SWITCH	0.243	0.211	0.293	SS	$2,200	3B/SS	$2,100
9	Felix Hernandez	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$11,000	P	$11,000
	Team Averages	—	0.300	0.173	0.315	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Franklin Gutierrez

Secondary Plays – Nelson Cruz, Dae-Ho Lee, Chris Iannetta

Stackability – GPP

San Diego

The Padres are ranked 27th or worse in all five of the offensive categories listed above. While Felix Hernandez should eventually give up a few more runs than he has, we shouldn’t expect that to happen tonight. With the third lowest team total on the board, the Padres can be avoided in both cash games and GPPs.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.272 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.126 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.3% (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.67 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.09 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.284	0.093	0.336	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,100
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.317	0.179	0.284	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,500
3	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.303	0.174	0.221	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.334	0.167	0.409	3B	$3,500	2B/3B	$3,000
5	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.322	0.159	0.225	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400
6	Brett Wallace	LEFT	0.366	0.215	0.374	1B	$3,000	1B/3B	$2,700
7	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.281	0.140	0.277	C	$2,400	C	$2,700
8	Alexei Ramirez	RIGHT	0.266	0.099	0.228	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,400
9	Christian Friedrich	LEFT	0.126	0.000	0.352	P	$5,700	P	$7,200
	Team Averages	—	0.289	0.136	0.301	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 1st - Page Three

LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kike Hernandez, Howie Kendrick

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – GPP

Arizona at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Chris Herrmann

Stackability – NONE

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis (FD)

Secondary Plays – Tyler White, Carlos Gomez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Tampa Bay at Kansas City – 8:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brandon Guyer, Steve Pearce

Stackability – NONE

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Cincinnati at Colorado – 8:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Zack Cozart (DK), Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Billy Hamilton

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart (FD), Brandon Phillips, Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez, Tucker Barnhart

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Areando, Carlos Gonzalez, Mark Reynolds, Trevor Story, Ryan Raburn

Secondary Plays – Dustin Garneau

Stackability – Cash & GPP & Cash & GPP & Cash & GPP

Seattle at San Diego – 10:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Franklin Gutierrez

Secondary Plays – Nelson Cruz, Dae-Ho Lee, Chris Iannetta

Stackability – GPP

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

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