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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-12 19:53:29

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

LA Dodgers at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

LA Dodgers Cincinnati
ladodgersmlb Ross Stripling cincinnatimlb Anthony DeSclafani
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-173 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.277 0.247 27.5% 1.11 29.6% 47.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.365 0.361 38.9% 2.58 19.4% 33.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.278 34.8% 1.18 24.3% 45.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.301 0.277 43.8% 1.09 22.1% 49.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ross Stripling
ross-stripling-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 2 3.37 3.75 24.3% 6.3% 49.3% 27.0% 20.4% 92.9 11.7%
2018 17 3.07 2.61 27.0% 3.8% 46.4% 31.2% 18.8% 91.6 11.0%
L14 0 3.68 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 93.0 14.3%

We have a full day of baseball games on tap. The first four games are included in the early slate, then we have three games in no-man’s land, and we cap off the main slate with eight games in the evening. Stripling missed nearly a month with a back injury and was expected to pitch out of the bullpen to ease him back into action. He only recorded a single out before the Dodgers decided to throw him back into the fire. At the time of writing this, nothing has been reported about a pitch count, but we have to expect Stripling to be somewhat limited in his first start back. It doesn’t help that he’s facing the Reds in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: I love Stripling’s skill set, but he could be on a pitch count here. With plenty of options in the early slate, he’s an easy fade.

Anthony DeSclafani
anthony-desclafani-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 17 4.10 4.56 20.8% 5.8% 41.6% 41.3% 14.9% 93.4 9.0%
L14 3 3.90 6.28 20.6% 4.8% 47.7% 41.3% 10.9% 93.9 12.0%

DeSclafani is not one of the aforementioned pitching options that is on my radar in the early slate. He’s more talented than his ERA would lead you to believe, but he has consistently struggled against left-handed hitters and the Dodgers’ lineup is full of good ones. Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, and Yasmani Grandal all mash right-handed pitching to the tune of a .340+ xwOBA and a .235+ ISO. Plus, it’s not like the right-handed hitters in this lineup are easy outs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid DeSclafani in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Cincinnati and they draw an exploitable matchup against Anthony DeSclafani. Check out his numbers against left-handed hitters this season — .361 xwOBA allowed with a 39% hard contact rate and a HR/9 of 2.58. The four lefties noted above are all elite plays at their respective positions — Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, and Yasmani Grandal. If you are considering a full stack, you can certainly include the likes of Justin Turner and Manny Machado as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.359 0.276 42.8% 10.4% 18.2% 41.3% OF $2,000 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.378 0.194 41.5% 8.5% 11.2% 31.6% 3B $4,300 3B $5,200 N/A N/A
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.382 0.242 38.0% 9.7% 18.0% 38.0% SS $4,200 SS $5,000 N/A N/A
4 Max Muncy LEFT 0.408 0.343 46.0% 16.5% 26.5% 36.4% 1B $3,800 1B/3B $4,900 N/A N/A
5 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.344 0.238 38.7% 10.7% 22.8% 40.1% OF $3,600 1B/OF $4,700 N/A N/A
6 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.368 0.238 38.3% 12.6% 21.6% 40.1% C $3,000 C $4,100 N/A N/A
7 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.309 0.198 38.3% 9.5% 20.5% 37.7% 2B $3,300 2B $3,800 N/A N/A
8 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.377 0.228 39.4% 7.3% 19.4% 41.7% OF $2,800 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
9 Ross Stripling RIGHT 0.127 0.000 8.3% 0.0% 33.3% 80.0% P $7,300 P $7,300 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.339 0.217 36.8% 9.5% 21.3% 43.0%

Elite Plays – Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Plays – Justin Turner, Manny Machado

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds are facing a very talented pitcher in Ross Stripling, but this is his first start in nearly a month and there’s a decent chance that the Dodgers will ease him back into action. I’m not saying that this is an exploitable matchup by any means, but rust can always be an issue when a pitcher is coming back from injury. In these small slates, we need to differentiate our lineups wherever possible and this could be a good spot to do it. Scott Schebler, Joey Votto, and Eugenio Suarez all boast a .360+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.362 0.221 41.0% 9.8% 24.6% 50.9% OF $3,600 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.296 0.116 30.4% 5.3% 12.2% 35.5% SS $3,500 SS $4,700 N/A N/A
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.446 0.147 38.9% 19.6% 13.9% 35.2% 1B $4,400 1B $4,900 N/A N/A
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.340 0.195 39.6% 6.9% 18.9% 40.7% 2B $4,000 2B $5,400 N/A N/A
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.371 0.236 46.9% 9.2% 24.2% 39.0% 3B $3,800 3B $4,900 N/A N/A
6 Mason Williams LEFT 0.297 0.136 46.9% 4.6% 21.8% 48.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.333 0.126 40.0% 10.5% 14.9% 41.8% C $2,400 C $4,200 N/A N/A
8 Phillip Ervin RIGHT 0.337 0.140 33.7% 7.9% 20.9% 35.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
9 Anthony DeSclafani RIGHT 0.136 0.000 10.0% 0.0% 67.7% 55.6% P $6,600 P $5,700 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.324 0.146 36.4% 8.2% 24.3% 42.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Scott Schebler, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Cleveland Tampa Bay
clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco tampabaymlb Blake Snell
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -105 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.297 0.278 37.3% 1.00 28.9% 47.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.196 0.260 35.9% 0.50 33.1% 46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.286 0.304 40.8% 1.03 29.7% 42.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.272 0.296 36.2% 0.97 29.7% 43.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $10,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 3.35 3.29 28.3% 5.8% 45.2% 29.3% 19.4% 94.3 13.4%
2018 27 3.02 3.41 29.3% 5.0% 45.2% 39.1% 14.8% 93.5 15.0%
L14 3 2.27 2.45 38.2% 5.6% 46.9% 42.0% 18.0% 93.8 20.4%

Carrasco has been wheeling and dealing since the All-Star break. His numbers have improved across the board and we know that he’s at his best on the road. With a 29% strikeout rate on the season, he’s a tough pitcher to overlook in a matchup against the Rays, whose projected lineup has a 23% k-rate against right-handed pitching. The icing on the cake here is Carrasco’s price point — he’s $300 cheaper than Snell and $1,400 cheaper than Cole on DraftKings.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is an elite play in all formats.

Blake Snell
blake-snell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,800 Salary: $10,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 24 4.72 4.04 21.8% 10.8% 43.9% 32.9% 18.8% 94.3 10.8%
2018 27 3.38 2.06 30.4% 8.8% 43.9% 36.1% 18.9% 95.7 14.6%
L14 3 2.14 2.00 38.2% 4.4% 44.7% 53.9% 18.0% 96.6 19.7%

Snell is by all accounts an elite pitcher. In 27 starts this season, he owns a 3.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. He has great velocity and a swinging strike rate close to 15%. While he certainly has the skill set to pitch well in this matchup, we shouldn’t force him given how many options there are at pitcher in the early slate. The Indians’ projected lineup boasts an average hard contact rate of 37% with a strikeout rate of only 19% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Snell could pitch well here, but there are safer options in this four-game slate.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians see a negative ballpark shift playing in Tampa Bay and they draw one of the most difficult matchups of the slate. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate (30%), Blake Snell has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA this season. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Snell pitch well here, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Indians’ offense score a few runs against him. I plan to watch this one from the sidelines.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.415 0.214 43.1% 11.8% 11.2% 45.1% SS $4,700 SS $4,900 N/A N/A
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.326 0.103 26.6% 3.7% 9.7% 50.4% OF $3,800 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.352 0.203 37.2% 8.3% 8.9% 38.3% 3B $4,600 3B $5,000 N/A N/A
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.380 0.167 45.6% 16.4% 18.9% 29.1% 1B $3,700 1B $3,400 N/A N/A
5 Yandy Diaz RIGHT 0.284 0.087 36.8% 0.0% 17.4% 52.6% 3B $2,800 1B/3B $3,200 N/A N/A
6 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.354 0.228 34.3% 9.2% 17.4% 35.6% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 N/A N/A
7 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.292 0.037 43.8% 15.2% 36.4% 60.0% C $2,100 C $2,600 N/A N/A
8 Erik Gonzalez RIGHT 0.287 0.120 36.1% 5.7% 26.4% 54.3% 2B $2,200 2B/3B $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.262 0.023 32.9% 5.3% 20.2% 46.4% OF $2,000 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.328 0.131 37.4% 8.4% 18.5% 45.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays have been tough to predict in this series. They knocked around Corey Kluber and then forgot to show up against Shane Bieber, who has really struggled against left-handed hitters this season. I’m on team Carrasco in this one. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.303 0.128 29.1% 9.2% 17.5% 47.5% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.351 0.173 47.5% 9.3% 25.7% 50.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
3 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.400 0.269 45.4% 12.3% 25.2% 41.7% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.355 0.232 38.7% 5.4% 25.2% 40.0% 1B $2,900 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.323 0.129 36.2% 5.3% 18.1% 47.6% 2B $2,800 2B $3,800 N/A N/A
6 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.290 0.140 31.3% 9.2% 27.7% 47.8% SS $2,800 SS $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Brandon Lowe LEFT 0.372 0.224 41.5% 13.2% 25.0% 46.3% OF $2,600 2B/OF $3,800 N/A N/A
8 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.337 0.186 44.6% 14.5% 27.0% 44.2% 1B $2,300 1B/OF $3,500 N/A N/A
9 Nick Ciuffo LEFT 0.255 0.375 28.6% 9.1% 18.2% 42.9% C $2,100 C $3,600 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.332 0.206 38.1% 9.7% 23.3% 45.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Houston at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Houston Detroit
houstonmlb Gerrit Cole detroitmlb Daniel Norris
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-220 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.239 0.248 29.1% 0.71 41.7% 35.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.326 30.0% 1.42 24.1% 42.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.287 0.321 33.2% 0.96 28.0% 37.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.385 52.3% 2.45 31.7% 27.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gerrit Cole
gerrit-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,400 Salary: $12,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 3.97 4.26 23.1% 6.5% 45.8% 31.3% 23.9% 96.0 9.5%
2018 29 2.92 2.86 34.6% 8.1% 36.8% 31.5% 19.1% 96.6 13.7%
L14 3 3.16 4.08 33.3% 9.3% 45.2% 23.8% 23.8% 96.7 13.4%

Cole is arguably the top pitching option of the slate if we take salaries out of the equation. On FanDuel, it’s a close decision between Cole and Carrasco. On DraftKings, I see no reason not to take the $1,400 discount on Carrasco. They both have elite upside and equally favorable matchups. The Tigers’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .312 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching. Meanwhile, Cole has a 2.92 SIERA and a 35% strikeout rate on the season.

Quick Breakdown: Cole is a viable SP1 in all formats.

Daniel Norris
daniel-norris-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 18 4.94 5.31 18.7% 9.6% 38.8% 41.7% 16.3% 93.2 9.2%
2018 4 3.57 5.47 29.6% 10.2% 31.7% 45.3% 14.1% 89.8 11.4%
L14 2 2.42 4.82 40.0% 5.7% 10.5% 63.2% 15.8% 91.0 10.1%

Norris doesn’t have the best command or the lowest ERA, but he has potential. In his four starts this season, he has a 3.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. I don’t expect him to sustain that high of a k-rate with a swinging strike rate of 11.4%, but he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on moving forward. He is an easy fade today against the Astros, whose projected lineup has a .354 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Norris in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros draw an exploitable matchup against Daniel Norris, who has a high walk rate and who has allowed a career .347 wOBA to lefties and a .331 wOBA to righties. I suppose I didn’t need to include his numbers against lefties, as the Astros will likely roll out nine righties today. You can make a case for each of the first six batters in this projected lineup, as they all own a .335+ xwOBA against southpaws this season — George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa, and Tyler White.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.376 0.205 38.7% 9.6% 22.9% 47.7% OF $4,000 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.397 0.127 39.3% 8.1% 12.1% 38.8% 2B $4,200 2B $4,500 N/A N/A
3 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.383 0.270 35.4% 12.5% 9.9% 30.6% 3B $4,700 3B/SS $5,700 N/A N/A
4 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.339 0.136 34.6% 6.4% 10.8% 36.2% 1B $2,800 1B $3,800 N/A N/A
5 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.338 0.122 29.4% 14.0% 22.4% 36.8% SS $3,600 SS $4,200 N/A N/A
6 Tyler White RIGHT 0.424 0.347 41.2% 15.5% 25.9% 32.4% 1B $4,100 1B $4,600 N/A N/A
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.319 0.161 43.4% 5.7% 23.3% 39.8% OF $2,700 OF/SS $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.301 0.139 40.0% 5.2% 25.2% 40.5% C $2,200 C $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.307 0.189 29.8% 5.8% 37.5% 23.6% OF $2,000 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.354 0.188 36.9% 9.2% 21.1% 36.3%

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

Secondary Plays – Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa, Tyler White

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers have a lack of talent and an awful matchup against Gerrit Cole. Even playing at home, that’s a terrible combination. In addition to an elite strikeout rate (35%), Cole has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA. The Tigers are an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.290 0.173 33.6% 11.6% 25.7% 38.5% 3B $3,100 3B $3,300 N/A N/A
2 Christin Stewart LEFT OF $2,000 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.384 0.186 47.9% 6.9% 23.8% 34.5% OF $3,600 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.338 0.088 38.4% 6.9% 9.7% 39.2% C $2,200 1B $2,800 N/A N/A
5 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.321 0.234 39.9% 8.6% 30.6% 38.3% 2B $2,900 2B/OF $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Ronny Rodriguez RIGHT 0.275 0.084 33.8% 7.6% 21.9% 47.9% SS $2,500 2B/SS $2,800 N/A N/A
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.282 0.085 39.2% 5.6% 24.5% 38.9% C $2,000 C $2,500 N/A N/A
8 Dawel Lugo RIGHT 0.313 0.107 44.0% 0.0% 10.7% 64.0% 3B $2,100 2B $3,100 N/A N/A
9 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.294 0.179 30.8% 4.3% 32.2% 41.1% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.312 0.142 38.5% 6.4% 22.4% 42.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh at St. Louis – 1:15 PM ET

Pittsburgh St. Louis
pittsburghmlb Jameson Taillon stlouismlb Daniel Poncedeleon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-105 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.335 0.325 31.8% 1.01 19.0% 43.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.243 0.300 22.9% 0.64 23.6% 25.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.261 0.271 30.3% 0.96 26.0% 50.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.354 27.0% 0.69 18.9% 37.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jameson Taillon
jameson-taillon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $8,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.24 4.44 21.3% 7.8% 47.3% 29.6% 22.1% 95.3 8.2%
2018 28 3.80 3.40 22.3% 5.9% 46.9% 31.1% 19.3% 95.3 10.6%
L14 2 3.54 2.25 25.5% 2.0% 23.5% 34.3% 14.3% 95.5 10.3%

Taillon is my go-to pitcher for value in the early slate. Yes, he is pitching on the road against a talented Cardinals’ offense, but he is far too underpriced to fade. On the season, he owns a 3.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a ground ball rate of 47%. He’s been tough on righties throughout his career, which should help him pitch well against the right-handed heavy offense of the Cardinals.

Quick Breakdown: On multi-pitcher sites, pick your favorite ace at the top and pair him with Taillon.

Daniel Poncedeleon
daniel-poncedeleon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $6,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 3 4.63 2.67 21.3% 11.1% 31.9% 25.0% 16.7% 93.4 11.3%
L14 1 4.26 5.06 21.7% 8.7% 31.3% 25.0% 25.0% 92.5 7.0%

Poncedeleon is making his fourth career major league start. His numbers in the majors haven’t been great, but he has really pitched well in the minors. In 18 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.75 FIP with a strikeout rate of 27%. He’s not a terrible option in tournaments in the early slate, as there are only a few cheap pitchers available to choose from. I do prefer Taillon though, as the Pirates have a high-contact offense.

Quick Breakdown: Poncedeleon is viable as an SP2 in large-field tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw an intriguing matchup against Daniel Poncedeleon, who is a rookie pitcher with a 4.63 SIERA and an 11% walk rate. There aren’t many offenses that stand out in this slate and with the need for value, this could be a good spot to load up on the Pirates. Josh Bell, Francisco Cervelli, and Corey Dickerson all hit right-handed pitching well and are all priced down across the industry.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.338 0.192 32.8% 9.4% 14.0% 50.3% OF $3,600 2B/OF $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.334 0.170 34.1% 4.6% 18.0% 48.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,900 N/A N/A
3 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.352 0.142 30.9% 13.0% 16.8% 51.0% 1B $3,000 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
4 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.380 0.186 34.5% 12.0% 21.4% 37.1% C $3,000 C $3,500 N/A N/A
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.351 0.187 36.8% 3.6% 13.2% 35.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Colin Moran LEFT 0.345 0.121 32.0% 7.3% 16.1% 44.8% 3B $2,700 3B $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Kevin Kramer LEFT 0.361 0.000 40.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 2B $2,000 2B $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.324 0.138 28.1% 7.8% 22.5% 38.8% SS $2,200 SS $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.124 0.026 19.2% 0.0% 36.6% 69.6% P $9,300 P $8,500 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.323 0.129 32.0% 6.4% 17.6% 43.9%

Elite Plays – Josh Bell, Francisco Cervelli (DK), Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Kevin Kramer

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis

The Cardinals have a difficult matchup against Jameson Taillon, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA this season. Matt Carpenter and Matt Adams are fine plays in tournaments, but I have more interest in Taillon than I do in the Cardinals’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.429 0.294 49.6% 15.3% 22.7% 21.6% 3B $4,000 1B/3B $4,700 N/A N/A
2 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.387 0.164 39.9% 7.7% 17.7% 48.0% OF $3,400 1B/OF $3,400 N/A N/A
3 Matt Adams LEFT 0.377 0.269 37.9% 9.4% 20.8% 32.8% 1B $3,200 1B/OF $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.354 0.136 44.9% 5.5% 18.0% 49.1% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
5 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.356 0.204 39.2% 6.3% 25.1% 32.7% SS $3,400 SS $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.304 0.161 27.0% 7.3% 14.7% 46.6% 2B $2,600 2B $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Harrison Bader RIGHT 0.280 0.136 35.2% 7.0% 31.6% 42.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
8 Carson Kelly RIGHT 0.401 0.000 40.0% 10.0% 10.0% 53.8% C $2,000 C $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Daniel Poncedeleon RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $6,100 P $6,200 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.321 0.152 34.9% 7.6% 29.0% 36.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Atlanta San Francisco
atlantamlb Anibal Sanchez sanfranciscomlb Derek Holland
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-125 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.269 0.281 27.5% 0.84 27.2% 50.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.224 0.287 19.4% 0.00 14.4% 56.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.288 0.294 28.3% 1.20 22.4% 39.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.344 44.9% 1.32 26.1% 33.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Anibal Sanchez
anibal-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 17 4.16 6.41 21.6% 6.0% 35.6% 37.4% 16.8% 90.8 9.8%
2018 20 3.80 3.09 24.7% 7.4% 44.4% 28.0% 23.2% 90.7 10.1%
L14 2 2.70 3.48 33.3% 4.8% 34.6% 26.9% 23.1% 90.9 16.8%

We now have the three afternoon games that aren’t included in the early or main slates. Sanchez has really pitched well this season, posting a 3.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 7%. He generates a lot of soft contact, which helps him pitch well in any ballpark. Not that he needs it in San Francisco, which is one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. Sean Newcomb and Mike Foltynewicz both dominated the Giants in their starts and I’m expecting more of the same from Sanchez. The Giants’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .273 with a strikeout rate of 31% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Sanchez is an excellent play in all formats.

Derek Holland
derek-holland-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 26 5.57 6.20 16.6% 12.0% 37.7% 38.4% 17.6% 91.1 7.1%
2018 27 4.18 3.54 23.6% 9.3% 38.6% 38.8% 17.5% 91.6 10.4%
L14 3 5.33 1.96 20.3% 14.9% 40.0% 34.0% 23.4% 91.8 9.1%

Holland is a fly-ball pitcher that benefits from pitching in this big ballpark. His numbers as a whole are pretty solid this season, posting a 4.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. The issue here is a matchup against the Giants, whose projected lineup boasts a .167 ISO against left-handed pitching. They also have five projected starters with a k-rate below 20% against southpaws this season. Holland has a fairly low floor/ceiling combination and is clearly the second best pitching option in this game.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Holland in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have one of the easiest matchups to break down today. Derek Holland has been incredibly tough on lefties, holding them to a .287 xwOBA on a 56% ground ball rate. He has struggled mightily against righties, allowing a .344 xwOBA and a 45% hard contact rate. Ronald Acuna, Kurt Suzuki, and Ozzie Albies all bat from the right side and all boast a .360+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching. Unfortunately, the ballpark downgrade bumps them down to secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.390 0.258 41.1% 11.6% 21.4% 45.2% OF $4,600 OF $5,300 N/A N/A
2 Charlie Culberson RIGHT 0.278 0.170 28.2% 5.1% 23.2% 58.0% SS $2,700 3B/OF $3,300 N/A N/A
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.396 0.246 38.5% 9.2% 19.9% 39.9% 1B $4,300 1B $4,900 N/A N/A
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.329 0.156 39.3% 8.5% 14.6% 42.9% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.377 0.228 42.4% 7.0% 15.1% 37.9% C $2,900 C $4,600 N/A N/A
6 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.360 0.207 38.6% 2.9% 14.3% 42.7% 2B $3,800 2B $4,400 N/A N/A
7 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.288 0.068 29.0% 6.8% 14.2% 53.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.279 0.170 41.2% 9.6% 25.0% 40.9% SS $2,500 SS $4,100 N/A N/A
9 Anibal Sanchez RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $8,100 P $8,400 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.300 0.167 33.1% 6.7% 27.5% 40.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ronald Acuna, Kurt Suzuki, Ozzie Albies

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco

The Giants haven’t been able to string together hits for what feels like weeks. They have a serious lack of talent and they can’t hit left or right-handed pitching. They are playing at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they draw a bad matchup against Anibal Sanchez, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate. Joe Panik and Brandon Belt are your best bets here, but they would be easy fades in a large slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.276 0.112 25.9% 5.7% 28.5% 37.2% OF $2,100 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.356 0.106 31.6% 6.6% 8.8% 44.7% 2B $2,000 2B $3,000 N/A N/A
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.306 0.152 39.5% 3.8% 23.3% 40.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,600 N/A N/A
4 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.371 0.198 43.2% 11.0% 23.3% 18.7% 1B $2,800 1B $4,100 N/A N/A
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.309 0.124 36.0% 9.5% 22.0% 43.8% SS $2,600 SS $3,500 N/A N/A
6 Austin Slater RIGHT 0.260 0.061 38.7% 11.6% 33.0% 67.2% OF $2,400 1B/OF $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Nick Hundley RIGHT 0.317 0.129 39.3% 7.6% 29.9% 40.4% C $2,500 C $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Chris Shaw LEFT 0.212 0.188 28.6% 10.5% 52.6% 42.9% OF $2,000 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
9 Derek Holland LEFT 0.050 0.031 14.3% 0.0% 57.6% 76.9% P $7,900 P $7,200 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.273 0.122 33.0% 7.4% 31.0% 45.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joe Panik, Brandon Belt

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious