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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-28 02:31:33

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Houston at Texas – 2:05 PM ET

Houston Texas
houstonmlb Justin Verlander texasmlb Nick Martinez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-170 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.322 36.0% 11.0% 26.7% 31.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.357 0.358 32.0% 9.3% 13.4% 38.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.273 0.306 34.8% 6.7% 23.8% 35.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.346 0.330 28.1% 3.4% 14.0% 42.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Justin Verlander
justin-verlander-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $13,600 Salary: $26,400
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.42 3.04 28.1% 6.3% 33.7% 28.9% 19.7%
2017 31 4.14 3.50 25.2% 8.7% 33.7% 35.4% 17.7%
L30 5 2.66 1.32 35.0% 4.9% 40.3% 32.9% 21.9%

There are four early games on the schedule today and for once, all four are listed in the early slates on FanDuel, DraftKings, and FantasyDraft. Verlander has been close to unhittable in his last five starts, posting a 1.32 ERA (2.66 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 35% and a walk rate of 5%. While he’s clearly the top pitching option of the early slate, this is his toughest matchup in quite some time. The Rangers have plenty of firepower in their lineup and he has to face them in Globe Life Park, which has yielded the second most runs of any ballpark in baseball this season.

Quick Breakdown: Verlander still has strikeout upside here, but expecting another shutout is a unrealistic. He’s the top option of the early slate.

Nick Martinez
nick-martinez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,400
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 5.84 5.59 8.9% 10.6% 50.4% 33.8% 15.1%
2017 16 5.11 5.47 13.8% 6.1% 40.5% 29.8% 20.8%
L30 3 4.09 5.85 19.8% 3.7% 38.7% 27.4% 22.6%

Martinez is not a pitcher that should be on your radar in DFS. Not today and not anytime in the near future. After posting a strikeout rate of 9% last season, it’s all the way up to 14% this season. Sarcasm aside, he doesn’t offer enough strikeout upside to make up for his mistakes. To make matters worse, he is facing an Astros’ offense that is ranked first in team wOBA and second in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: The search for an SP2 on the slate is a fun one. Let’s keep looking.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros already clinched their division, but with a win and an Indians loss last night, they pulled within a game of Cleveland for the best record in the majors. Both teams have plenty to play for until one clinches home-field advantage. The Astros have the second highest implied run total in the early games, as they square off against Nick Martinez. On the season, he has allowed a .358 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .330 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. An Astros’ stack is viable, but we also have games in Coors Field and Chase Field to consider.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.364 0.361 0.232 37.7% 8.8% 19.9% 49.4% OF $3,300 OF $5,100 RF $9,900
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.410 0.358 0.209 29.3% 8.9% 12.8% 45.4% 2B $4,400 2B $5,500 2B $10,800
3 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.356 0.374 0.215 37.6% 10.9% 20.9% 47.3% SS $3,300 SS $4,700 SS $9,300
4 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.387 0.331 0.226 34.8% 9.3% 20.3% 43.5% 2B $3,400 OF/SS $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
5 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.346 0.323 0.189 32.5% 6.2% 15.3% 35.6% C $2,900 C $3,700 C $7,200
6 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.328 0.329 0.171 32.5% 8.3% 16.4% 40.9% 3B $3,800 3B/SS $4,300 3B $8,400
7 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.305 0.300 0.180 32.6% 7.1% 18.0% 42.5% OF $2,100 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
8 Tyler White RIGHT 0.389 0.319 0.211 39.3% 7.1% 26.2% 39.3% 1B $2,500 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
9 Derek Fisher LEFT 0.298 0.329 0.188 44.8% 9.6% 29.8% 50.7% OF $2,200 OF $3,500 RF $6,900

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Marwin Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Evan Gattis, Alex Bregman

Stackability – GREEN

Texas

The Rangers draw the worst matchup of the slate, but at least they are playing at home in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Justin Verlander has been in tremendous form over the last two months, but he’s a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a 35% this season. In these conditions, I could certainly see a home run or two from the Rangers’ side of the ball. With that said, I’m not going to be chase it, as literally every other offense has a better matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.339 0.371 0.184 40.5% 11.5% 22.2% 44.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.347 0.303 0.171 29.9% 5.6% 15.3% 48.7% SS $3,300 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.340 0.337 0.200 34.7% 10.6% 19.2% 42.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.364 0.343 0.221 35.5% 8.6% 14.5% 45.0% 3B $3,200 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
5 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.359 0.369 0.340 46.3% 14.1% 35.2% 29.5% 1B $3,000 1B/3B $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
6 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.363 0.350 0.241 42.2% 8.3% 28.8% 38.3% OF $3,500 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
7 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.300 0.305 0.231 39.1% 4.8% 24.6% 38.5% 2B $2,500 2B $3,100 2B $6,000
8 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.342 0.326 0.245 34.4% 10.5% 26.5% 43.7% C $2,600 C $2,800 C $5,600
9 Will Middlebrooks RIGHT 0.105 0.265 0.050 40.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 3B $2,000 3B $2,300 3B $4,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Miami Colorado
miamimlb Adam Conley coloradomlb Jon Gray
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
COL-180 11.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.341 0.331 35.4% 2.9% 15.5% 43.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.299 28.9% 8.2% 20.6% 52.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.348 39.1% 10.5% 16.8% 38.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.304 27.9% 5.3% 28.7% 43.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Conley
adam-conley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.64 3.85 21.2% 10.6% 38.2% 31.4% 20.5%
2017 18 5.15 5.20 16.5% 8.7% 39.6% 38.1% 18.1%
L30 5 5.44 5.96 14.7% 7.8% 32.6% 46.1% 15.7%

The Marlins have been out of playoff contention for quite some time, but they still have a chance to play the role of spoiler. The Rockies currently hold a game and a half lead over the Brewers for the second wildcard spot in the National League. For the Marlins to win, they will need a big outing from their offense. That’s basically a nice way of saying that Conley is going to get shelled. He has a low strikeout rate and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact.

Quick Breakdown: Conley offers more downside than upside in a start against the Rockies.

Jon Gray
jon-gray-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 3.72 4.61 26.0% 8.3% 43.5% 30.6% 17.8%
2017 18 3.83 3.75 23.9% 7.0% 48.9% 28.5% 23.6%
L30 5 3.46 1.86 28.7% 7.0% 41.7% 26.4% 25.0%

Targeting pitchers in Coors Field is not on my list of priorities when it comes to fantasy baseball. However, when we have these short slates with limited options, we have to make difficult decisions. When it comes to an SP2, we can take Gray in Coors Field, Samardzija in Chase Field, or take a shot on a below-average starter in Oakland. I’m siding with the first option. Gray has been very sharp in his last five starts, posting a 3.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He has an above-average strikeout rate and an ability to generate soft and medium contact.

Quick Breakdown: While I don’t love the matchup or the ballpark, Gray is in good form and he’s the best of the SP2s that are available to us.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins didn’t score a single run last night. I mentioned in each of the last two Grind Downs that it was expected to be cold in Denver. While the temperature hasn’t been the sole reason for the two low scoring games in this series, it has certainly played a role. It’s going to be in the upper-50s at first pitch, which is fairly cold baseball weather. Add in a matchup against Jon Gray and the Marlins aren’t very appealing. In addition to his high strikeout rate, Gray has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.322 0.259 0.073 18.0% 4.9% 13.9% 55.5% 2B $4,300 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.396 0.386 0.331 38.1% 10.9% 26.0% 43.3% OF $4,900 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.359 0.363 0.174 37.2% 12.4% 19.8% 54.6% OF $4,300 OF $4,500 CF $8,800
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.391 0.361 0.261 40.2% 8.7% 22.5% 44.5% OF $4,600 OF $5,000 LF $9,900
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.383 0.398 0.250 43.8% 11.4% 20.3% 38.9% 1B $4,500 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.322 0.322 0.169 32.9% 4.9% 18.4% 49.8% C $3,900 C $4,000 C $7,600
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.305 0.311 0.184 33.3% 7.0% 21.4% 35.8% 3B $3,900 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.296 0.296 0.044 19.0% 8.0% 11.9% 53.2% SS $3,400 SS $3,600 2B $7,200
9 Adam Conley LEFT 0.166 0.000 0.0% 4.5% 45.5% 66.7% P $5,500 P $5,000 P $10,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado

The Rockies have the highest implied team total on the slate. They are playing at home in the hitter’s paradise that is Coors Field and they draw an exploitable matchup against Adam Conley. On the season, he has allowed a .331 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .348 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. He also has a high walk rate and a high hard contact rate. The Rockies need a win to stay ahead of the Brewers and they should get it today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.384 0.336 0.211 34.2% 6.8% 16.0% 52.4% OF $4,800 OF $5,600 CF $10,800
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.415 0.406 0.190 39.7% 10.4% 9.2% 53.9% 2B $3,900 2B $4,700 2B $9,200
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.531 0.438 0.423 35.7% 9.6% 10.2% 25.4% 3B $4,800 3B $5,500 3B $10,800
4 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.430 0.357 0.382 54.6% 11.5% 33.1% 28.6% SS $3,800 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
5 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.264 0.258 0.083 25.0% 5.4% 23.7% 68.8% OF $3,800 1B/OF $4,100 LF $8,100
6 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.217 0.204 0.087 33.3% 3.1% 32.1% 58.3% OF $4,100 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
7 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.330 0.306 0.168 34.5% 15.3% 31.3% 44.8% 1B $3,700 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
8 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.256 0.308 0.079 20.7% 8.9% 8.9% 59.8% C $3,800 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Jon Gray RIGHT 0.063 0.077 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 64.3% 60.0% P $7,600 P $8,000 P $15,600

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Mark Reynolds, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – GREEN

Seattle at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Seattle Oakland
seattlemlb Erasmo Ramirez oaklandmlb Kendall Graveman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK-115 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.354 0.381 45.9% 8.8% 21.2% 41.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.320 28.0% 8.3% 17.2% 40.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.282 0.292 34.2% 4.1% 19.0% 48.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.362 0.369 33.3% 6.3% 14.9% 56.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Erasmo Ramirez
erasmo-ramirez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.10 3.77 16.7% 6.9% 52.5% 26.3% 19.3%
2017 17 4.22 4.56 19.9% 5.9% 45.4% 38.6% 14.7%
L30 5 4.09 4.71 24.4% 8.1% 43.2% 34.2% 12.2%

As long as the Diamondbacks don’t roll out their “B” squad again, Ramirez will be my second favorite SP2 in the early slate. While he doesn’t do anything particularly well, he has good command and an ability to pitch fairly deep into games. He is pitching in a good ballpark and he’s facing an A’s offense that has the fourth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The concern here is that the A’s have been red-hot and that most games in this ballpark don’t have run totals this high.

Quick Breakdown: When it comes to SP2, I prefer Jon Gray. However, Ramirez should be lower owned in tournaments.

Kendall Graveman
kendall-graveman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 4.57 4.11 13.7% 6.0% 52.1% 29.1% 17.0%
2017 17 4.75 4.39 15.9% 7.2% 50.0% 31.1% 16.6%
L30 5 4.58 3.96 16.4% 7.7% 57.1% 27.3% 15.6%

Graveman has been an easy pitcher to avoid this season. In 17 starts, he has a 4.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He’s a ground ball pitcher that is always at the mercy of BABIP thanks to a low k-rate. He draws a fairly difficult matchup against the Mariners, who are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Seattle has also hit him well in the past with a combined .416 wOBA in 85 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: Graveman is a risky play with little upside.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners are facing a ground ball pitcher in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. While that’s obviously not an ideal combination, Kendall Graveman has been hittable this season. He has a low strikeout rate and has allowed a .320 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .369 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. Nelson Cruz has some of the best BvP that you are going to find. He is 12-for-19 against Graveman in his career with a home run and two doubles.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.323 0.300 0.136 28.5% 7.7% 20.5% 43.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
2 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.361 0.324 0.201 37.3% 9.0% 24.4% 44.0% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.381 0.395 0.216 39.9% 8.5% 10.4% 49.0% 2B $3,400 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.393 0.387 0.277 39.3% 7.8% 21.5% 40.3% OF $4,000 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.328 0.368 0.197 37.9% 9.3% 15.4% 30.3% 3B $3,400 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.373 0.376 0.224 35.4% 14.4% 22.5% 33.1% 1B $2,400 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
7 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.341 0.306 0.235 38.1% 8.5% 38.5% 34.4% C $2,900 C $3,300 C $6,600
8 Taylor Motter RIGHT 0.292 0.318 0.178 37.3% 8.2% 23.4% 38.4% SS $2,100 OF/SS $2,600 SS $5,100
9 Jacob Hannemann LEFT 0.219 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 66.7% OF $2,000 OF $2,000 CF $4,000

Elite Plays – Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Ben Gamel, Mitch Haniger, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Mike Zunino

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

Erasmo Ramirez is one of the easiest pitchers to break down. He has been tough on right-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .292 xwOBA with a 48% ground ball rate. His issue has clearly been against left-handed hitters, allowing a .381 xwOBA with a 46% hard contact rate. All of the left-handed hitters in this lineup are viable. Unfortunately, Matt Olson will not be in the lineup again this season. He has a Grade 2 hamstring strain that will force him to miss the last week.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.320 0.301 0.138 25.0% 10.4% 22.9% 37.4% SS $3,900 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.358 0.369 0.256 32.3% 13.4% 20.4% 34.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.358 0.370 0.188 36.7% 10.9% 14.5% 26.7% 2B $4,000 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.371 0.376 0.295 39.6% 10.0% 31.0% 38.8% OF $4,100 OF $4,000 LF $7,800
5 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.307 0.309 0.178 35.3% 3.4% 24.8% 44.5% 1B $2,700 1B/3B $3,400 3B $6,800
6 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.323 0.290 0.251 37.0% 9.6% 29.2% 36.2% 3B $2,500 3B $2,700 3B $5,400
7 Bruce Maxwell LEFT 0.316 0.319 0.121 38.9% 12.4% 24.9% 44.4% C $2,700 C $2,900 C $5,600
8 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.319 0.316 0.210 35.3% 5.6% 33.7% 31.4% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 IF/OF $5,400
9 Jake Smolinski RIGHT 0.219 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,000 CF $4,000

Elite Plays – Jed Lowrie

Secondary Plays – Matt Joyce, Khris Davis, Bruce Maxwell

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

San Francisco Arizona
sanfranciscomlb Jeff Samardzija arizonamlb Braden Shipley
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.321 31.7% 4.5% 26.1% 37.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.244 0.253 25.0% 4.4% 13.3% 50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.261 27.1% 2.6% 22.7% 47.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.526 0.436 42.4% 20.4% 16.7% 42.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Samardzija
jeff-samardzija-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,100
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.13 3.81 20.1% 6.5% 46.5% 31.5% 18.1%
2017 30 3.57 4.42 24.5% 3.6% 42.3% 29.4% 21.3%
L30 4 3.47 3.03 25.0% 2.8% 43.6% 29.5% 26.9%

Samardzija has pitched well all year, posting a 3.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 4%. Other than facing the Padres, he has quietly been a very nice option in DFS. He draws a difficult matchup today against the Diamondbacks, but they have officially locked up home-field advantage in the wildcard game. They have nothing to play for the rest of the way, so don’t be surprised if they rest a few starters here or there. Samardzija is viable in tournaments either way, but if the Diamondbacks’ lineup looks shaky, he could challenge Jon Gray as the top SP2 of the slate.

Quick Breakdown:Samardzija is viable today, but let’s wait and see what the Diamondbacks look like first.

Braden Shipley
braden-shipley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 11 5.20 5.27 14.1% 9.2% 42.8% 37.2% 11.1%
2017 2 5.65 5.85 15.2% 13.1% 46.4% 33.3% 18.8%
L30 0 3.54 3.00 27.3% 9.1% 42.9% 14.3% 28.6%

Shipley is only making his third start of the season, after spending most of his time at the Triple-A level, where he posted a 5.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. The Diamondbacks were scheduled to start Zack Greinke, but they will obviously need him for the wildcard game, so they are rearranging the rotation. Shipley offers no fantasy value at this time, even in a favorable matchup against the Giants.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Shipley in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants are the preferred offense to target in this game, which sounds a bit strange. They clearly draw the better matchup of the two teams and this ballpark is a big step up from AT&T Park in terms of run production. The sample size is small, but Braden Shipley has allowed a .344 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .425 wOBA to right-handed hitters in his career. The Giants are a great source of value for the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.288 0.279 0.113 27.6% 6.1% 22.2% 62.3% OF $3,600 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.340 0.319 0.172 26.1% 8.2% 8.8% 40.5% 2B $2,900 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
3 Denard Span LEFT 0.334 0.329 0.183 27.5% 7.2% 11.9% 42.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.338 0.349 0.109 30.2% 9.3% 11.9% 46.3% C $2,900 1B/C $3,800 C $7,500
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.303 0.315 0.160 33.3% 7.4% 21.4% 49.1% SS $2,600 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
6 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.280 0.323 0.137 35.4% 6.5% 20.6% 47.2% 3B $2,600 3B $3,300 3B $6,600
7 Jarrett Parker LEFT 0.292 0.291 0.180 24.1% 6.2% 26.9% 50.6% OF $3,000 OF $2,600 LF $5,100
8 Nick Hundley RIGHT 0.242 0.281 0.128 33.1% 2.7% 29.4% 42.1% C $2,500 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Jeff Samardzija RIGHT 0.121 0.153 0.098 17.9% 0.0% 34.9% 57.7% P $8,300 P $7,100 P $14,100

Elite Plays – Joe Panik, Denard Span, Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have nothing to play for the rest of the way, which makes predicting fantasy production difficult. While this offense still has upside, my plan is to lean on the teams and players that are still motivated. When you add in a matchup against Jeff Samardzija, it makes the Arizona fade a little easier. On the season, Samardzija has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.358 0.316 0.168 35.1% 7.3% 16.3% 53.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
2 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.336 0.329 0.184 37.1% 8.5% 18.0% 43.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,400 CF $8,700
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.412 0.393 0.274 43.1% 13.6% 23.0% 46.8% 1B $4,400 1B $5,600 1B $10,800
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.392 0.399 0.344 46.2% 10.5% 26.6% 41.3% OF $4,900 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
5 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.342 0.322 0.251 40.0% 10.2% 31.6% 32.2% C $2,700 C $4,000 C $7,800
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.329 0.308 0.193 32.2% 6.8% 20.1% 48.9% 2B $3,100 2B $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
7 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.380 0.372 0.262 36.8% 13.7% 21.1% 37.8% 3B $3,300 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
8 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.330 0.326 0.136 21.6% 9.5% 16.5% 39.5% SS $2,600 SS $3,800 SS $7,500
9 Braden Shipley RIGHT 0.000 0.000 75.0% 0.0% 20.0% 75.0% P $5,500 P $5,500 P $10,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – David Peralta, Jake Lamb

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Baltimore Pittsburgh
baltimoremlb Gabriel Ynoa pittsburghmlb Chad Kuhl
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-125 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.334 0.331 41.1% 4.4% 13.0% 38.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.366 0.338 39.1% 12.6% 22.7% 36.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.350 34.8% 6.3% 21.9% 34.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.322 32.1% 9.1% 19.0% 46.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gabriel Ynoa
gabriel-ynoa-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 4.08 6.38 19.3% 8.0% 49.2% 28.6% 14.3%
2017 3 4.62 3.41 17.3% 5.3% 37.0% 38.2% 20.6%
L30 3 5.18 2.84 14.3% 6.5% 39.7% 36.7% 25.0%

Ynoa has a low ERA this season, but his peripheral stats and his major league track record both suggest that he’s not a great pitcher. He has a below-average strikeout rate and he’s listed as a small underdog on the road against the Pirates. The fact that a game in PNC Park has a total of 9.0 runs is alarming for both of the starters.

Quick Breakdown: Ynoa is an easy fade in all formats.

Chad Kuhl
chad-kuhl-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.50 4.20 17.6% 6.6% 44.3% 33.0% 19.6%
2017 30 4.83 4.31 20.9% 10.8% 41.6% 35.4% 17.3%
L30 5 5.17 3.33 24.2% 15.0% 27.8% 46.6% 17.8%

Kuhl used to be dominant against right-handed hitters, which gave us opportunities to target him against right-handed heavy lineups. However, this season, he has allowed a .322+ xwOBA to both lefties and righties, which gives me some pause in a start tonight against the Orioles. Baltimore loses the DH in this series, but they still have plenty of firepower in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Kuhl is the preferred pitcher in this game, but both can be avoided.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles draw a decent matchup against Chad Kuhl, but they are facing him in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they lose the use of their designated hitter. This isn’t a great spot for the Orioles, but they will be low-owned if you are looking for a one-off target or two. On the season, Kuhl has allowed a .338 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .322 xwOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Austin Hays RIGHT 0.263 0.222 0.043 18.8% 4.2% 29.2% 75.0% OF $2,700 OF $2,600 CF $5,200
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.331 0.362 0.214 37.4% 8.0% 16.5% 43.1% 3B $3,600 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.343 0.304 0.191 33.4% 4.2% 20.3% 41.9% 2B $3,000 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.324 0.337 0.246 44.6% 12.2% 35.6% 36.2% 1B $3,300 1B $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.368 0.349 0.236 34.7% 6.4% 22.6% 52.2% OF $3,300 1B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.285 0.296 0.160 30.3% 7.5% 25.1% 42.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
7 Chance Sisco LEFT 0.956 1.000 100.0% 20.0% 20.0% 33.3% C $2,300 C $2,600 C $5,100
8 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.245 0.276 0.094 23.3% 3.6% 16.7% 42.0% SS $2,500 SS $2,700 SS $5,200
9 Gabriel Ynoa RIGHT P $6,100 P $5,800 P $11,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Austin Hays, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Trey Mancini

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

How about Andrew McCutchen last night? He went 4-for-4 with eight runs batted in. The Pirates draw an even better matchup tonight, as they square off against Gabriel Ynoa. In addition to his low strikeout rate, Ynoa has allowed a .331 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .350 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.332 0.333 0.144 29.7% 8.7% 11.5% 46.5% OF $3,400 2B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.336 0.323 0.121 25.3% 5.3% 18.1% 48.1% OF $3,900 OF $4,400 CF $8,400
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.325 0.332 0.156 32.7% 9.9% 18.7% 44.0% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.344 0.328 0.214 32.1% 11.3% 19.0% 51.4% 1B $2,400 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.316 0.331 0.106 31.3% 10.7% 24.7% 56.2% 3B $3,000 3B $2,800 3B $5,400
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.307 0.314 0.160 27.5% 6.8% 12.3% 39.5% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 RF $5,600
7 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.262 0.268 0.098 25.3% 6.1% 18.3% 54.5% C $2,600 C $2,900 C $5,600
8 Max Moroff SWITCH 0.261 0.283 0.132 33.3% 7.1% 31.0% 38.0% SS $2,000 2B/SS $2,500 SS $4,800
9 Chad Kuhl RIGHT 0.112 0.154 0.057 26.9% 2.6% 28.9% 68.2% P $7,800 P $6,500 P $12,900

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Starling Marte, Josh Bell (FD)

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious