The Relief Brief: Friday, September 16th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-17 01:04:21

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Friday night features a 14-game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights.

1. Bullpen Highlights

Clay Buchholz continues his rollercoaster ride of a season with a third consecutive start tonight. In all, Clay has made 18 starts and 16 appearances out of the bullpen. The Jays hammered Clay in his last outing, as he lasted only three innings and was tagged with two dongs and six earned runs. Last night, the Red Sox won in dramatic fashion, but had to use four different relievers in heavy amounts of work. Fortunately, only one of those four (Junichi Tazawa) is a late inning regular for the BoSox. This unit may be a bit shorthanded over all tonight, but they should be set for the late innings. The only question is, can Clay get them there? Middle relief could be an issue tonight if Buch struggles.

Luis Cessa has made five starts since the second half of August and has allowed eight home runs over those outings. For the season, Cessa has given up 13 homers though 47.2 innings pitched. Tonight, he’ll be facing a fired up Red Sox team that wore down the Yankees late inning relief last night including Dellin Betances (21 pitches) and Adam Warren (29 pitches). Because of Cessa’s recent struggles and because of the two best Yankee relievers likely being unavailable (or very fatigued at the least), I see this as a good spot to attack for all stages of the game.

Chris Archer has been solid though unspectacular in the second half of the season. The xFIP sits at a very strong 3.33, but the long ball has largely been his undoing. Last night, the Rays used five different relievers and ended up nearly blowing the lead against Baltimore. While the Rays did hold on, it came at the price of some serious bullpen fatigue. I expect Archer to have an extended leash tonight in order to spare the bullpen from another trying night, even if he gives up a few solo dongs along the way (Archer has allowed six HR against Baltimore through three starts this season).

Robert Stephenson will be making just his fifth career start tonight. Through four starts, the numbers are about what you’d expect – inconsistent, though with some promising spots as well. In his last outing, he faced the Pirates (as he will again tonight) and allowed four earned runs while lasting just three innings. As we well know, Stephenson will be backed up by the worst ‘pen in baseball. I expect the Pirates to get into that ‘pen fairly early at Stephenson’s expense, which could make this a prime spot to target.

Michael Fulmer continues to pitch well, even with some recent home run issues. Fulmer has reached the six-inning mark or more in six of his last eight outings, and has surrendered more than three runs just once over that stretch. The numbers aren’t jaw dropping, but he’s been consistent. Yesterday, Mark Lowe, Justin Wilson, Kyle Ryan and Blaine Hardy all logged heavy work, so the Tigers will be looking for Fulmer to log a strong six innings at minimum tonight. The competition won’t be easy as the Tigers take on the division rival Indians. I expect Fulmer to get through another decent six innings or so tonight, which could put a limit on any bullpen work we may see.

In Ian Kennedy’s last ten starts, he has only allowed five home runs. I say “only” because through 29 starts on the season, Kennedy has allowed 31 dongs. Over his last ten starts, Kennedy has also managed to pitch six or more innings in seven of those outings. This is another situation with a tired bullpen and a fairly reliable starting pitcher (at least in an innings pitched sense). Yesterday, the Royals bullpen combined to throw nearly 120 pitches, and have now worked an extreme amount on consecutive days. This ‘pen is absolutely going to be shorthanded tonight, which should extend Kennedy’s outing some, but if he struggles, this could be a very sneaky spot to target.

Tyler Chatwood has had his fair amount of struggles this season, but has excelled with a strong 57% GB rate. Chatwood has not been a very reliable source of innings for the Rockies, as nine of his 24 starts have gone for fewer than six innings. Over the last 30 days, only the Blue Jays bullpen has allowed more HR/9 than the Rockies ‘pen, and while the Blue Jays have solid peripherals aside from the HR/9 rate, the Rockies have struggled in numerous other categories as well. This is a bullpen that is currently struggling with walks, homers and hard contact. Coors is almost never sneaky, but this is a strong spot to attack.

Remember that time at the end of August when Jered Weaver faced the Blue Jays in Toronto? Everyone was on the Jays, and for good reason, but Weaver only allowed one earned run through 5.2 innings pitched in that outing. I’m hoping that people remember that and shy away from Jays bats in cash tonight, though it seems unlikely. Not only is Weaver giving up a ton of homers this season, but he is struggling to work deep into outings (13 of 28 starts have gone for fewer than six innings). The Angels own the fourth worst bullpen SIERA in baseball this season, and they could be in for a long night tonight.

My Favorite Bullpens To Pick On

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. New York Yankees
4. Colorado Rockies
5. Kansas City Royals

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

No news is good news. Is it? I’m not so sure that it is. What are your thoughts, and why? Don’t answer this.

3. Other Notes And Insights

If you combine Jered Weaver’s walks allowed (45) and home runs allowed (35), they come just ten shy of his strikeout total (90) in 2016.

Feel free to follow me on Twitter – @collinman005

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