The Relief Brief: Monday, September 12th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-13 02:08:54

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Monday night features a full 15-game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights.

1. Bullpen Highlights

Wade Miley has pitched so poorly since being acquired by the Orioles that his spot in the rotation is reportedly in jeopardy. To make things more difficult, Miley has to perform well tonight in his start against the Red Sox in Boston (his employer of 2015). Miley has two (barely) quality starts in his seven outings with the O’s and has only exceeded five innings twice during those seven starts. The Orioles bullpen continues to be quietly bad. Over the last 30 days, they’ve allowed 1.59 HR/9. I like this spot to take some Red Sox bats.

David Price has been on a nice roll lately and seems to be rounding into form for the stretch run. I’m mentioning Price here because of the amount of work the Red Sox bullpen has endured lately. The Red Sox relief pitching accounted for 105 pitches thrown yesterday against the Blue Jays and used eight different relievers. I expect this to be a spot where David Price is asked to go a bit longer than may be typical. He certainly has the capability of going deep into games, and I expect him to have a longer leash to get that done tonight.

Jose De Leon flashed some exciting stuff in his first big league start last week against the Padres in which he tossed six innings and struck out nine. Yankee Stadium is not an easy ballpark to pitch in, but De Leon is capable of both limiting this Yankee offense and of working deep into the game. Aside from Jesse Chavez, the Dodgers bullpen is fresh and ready to go tonight. To me, this is an unattractive spot to attack even though De Leon is making just his second big league start of 2016 against a surging team.

Bryan Mitchell is the other young starting pitcher in this game at Yankee Stadium. While Mitchell hasn’t shown the overall promise and excitement of De Leon, he has been productive at times in his first three professional seasons. In his last start, Mitchell shut out the Blue Jays over five innings of work. The Yankees bullpen continues to be solid in spite of some recent road bumps, but they are fresh tonight. Take some Dodgers bats here and there, but don’t expect much damage to come against the Yankees’ bullpen.

Mat Latos hasn’t started a game since early June. In his eleven starts on the season, Latos has not exceeded six innings in any of those appearances and has only exceeded 100 pitches twice this season. Mark Melancon has not worked in three straight games and is likely unavailable tonight. Still, this is a strong bullpen and while Latos is unlikely to go deep into this game, the Mets are also unlikely to do a lot of damage against this bullpen.

If you think that the Reds bullpen is bad (and you should), prepare to be delighted. Keyvius Sampson has worked out of the ‘pen almost all season (one spot start) and has posted an xFIP of 5.28. What we really like here is that Sampson’s long outing of the season is five innings and no more than 88 pitches. Expect to see a lot of the Reds bullpen tonight (really, it’s all going to be the Reds bullpen). This is my favorite spot to attack tonight. I know, shocker.

Shelby Miller has given up 24 earned runs over his last five starts (27.1 innings). On top of being worked a lot lately, the Diamondbacks bullpen owns the second worst SIERA in baseball both over the last 30 days and over the entirety of the season. Miller has been hit hard lately, and while this game is not in Coors Field, Chase Field is a nice offensive environment in its own right. Expect Miller to struggle through five to six innings tonight before yielding to this horrendous bullpen.

Paul Clemens has ten starts in 2016, and has a long outing of 5.1 innings. Along with short outings, Clemens has been roughed up consistently with a 5.44 ERA and a 5.57 xFIP. The Padres used five relievers yesterday and are likely not going to be firing on all cylinders (whatever that is) tonight. This bullpen continues to get worse as the season moves on, so even though this game in in a difficult hitting environment, I expect the Giants to see a lot of a weak bullpen tonight, and I expect them to capitalize on the opportunity.

My Favorite Bullpens To Pick On

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Baltimore Orioles
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. San Diego Padres

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Indians recalled Ryan Merritt from AAA. He will provide a solid left-handed arm out of the bullpen the rest of the way.

The Mariners activated Tom Wilhelmson from the 15-day DL. Wilhelmson should work middle relief for the M’s.

3. Other Notes And Insights

In Jose De Leon’s last three minor league starts, he combined to throw 21 innings with 33 strikeouts and just two earned runs allowed.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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