The Relief Brief: Tuesday, August 23rd

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-24 02:08:16

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Tuesday night features a full 15-game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Clay Buchholz has never quite lived up to the hype, and as a result, he has been on the butt end of some of my jokes (which may only be funny to my cats and I). Clay will get his third consecutive start while filling in for the injured Steven Wright. I his last outing, Clay shut down the high powered Tigers offense for just one run through six innings. In 15 starts on the season, Clay has thrown more than six innings just once. I don’t expect him to go beyond six innings in this game. The Red Sox bullpen is in treading water mode as they try to sort out roles and wade through injuries. This bullpen has struggled over the last 30 days and is certainly susceptible to coughing up leads (six blown saves in the last 30 days).

Chris Archer has eight consecutive starts of six innings or more. In those eight starts, Archer has collected 59 strikeouts. The Rays bullpen is bound to be fatigued after being forced into a lot of work over the last week (particularly yesterday). I expect Archer to have a longer leash in this game in hopes of giving the bullpen some rest. The Red Sox could change that plan in a hurry, however.

Ivan Nova went just four innings in his last start. Nova faced the Giants in that outing, and was somewhat unlucky. He only threw 62 pitches and struck out five through those four innings, but he gave up four runs as well. His xFIP ended at 1.91 in that outing, while his BAPIP ended at .462. That outing is a great reminder of why we need to look beyond the box score! Nova will face the Astros tonight in spacious PNC Park. The Pirates ‘pen is likely to work at least three innings here, and they’re a group that has rebounded nicely since trading Mark Melancon to the Nationals. Still, there are major holes in this bullpen and the Astros have the best wOBA in baseball in the last 14 days (.372).

Tyler Skaggs was brilliant in his first two starts of the season, but has since fallen off of a cliff. In his last three starts, Skaggs has allowed 15 earned runs through a grand total of 13.2 innings. Skaggs has been unlucky with BAPIP lately, but he’s not fooling many bats either. The Angels bullpen has been stout over the last month (3.54 SIERA) but do have the fourth worst SIERA in baseball over the course of the full season (4.10). I expect Skaggs to struggle against Toronto tonight and I expect the bullpen to be forced into a hefty workload tonight.

Welcome back Derek Holland! We’ve missed you. Holland hasn’t started a game since June 20th, but is scheduled to make the start tonight. Dan Straily will pitch opposite him in a head to head matchup of two mediocre pitchers backed by two of the worst bullpens in baseball. Hurray! In all seriousness, both bullpens should see plenty of work tonight as Holland makes his way back from injury and Straily faces a strong lineup in a good run scoring environment. Straily has pitched very well lately however (six straight outing of allowing two earned runs or fewer). The Rangers bullpen surprisingly has the third best SIERA in the last 30 days. The Reds ‘pen has shown signs of improvement as well, but I anticipate the worst for both units tonight (unless the Reds roster looks like a below average AAA lineup again).

Chase Anderson is bad. How bad is Chase Anderson? I’m glad you asked. In his 23 starts on the season, Anderson has pitched six or more innings just five times. In those 23 starts, Anderson has allowed 22 dongs with an xFIP of 4.87. Anderson particularly struggles against righties, which may bode better for him tonight against the lefty heavy Rockies, but we still have to assume that Anderson won’t pitch beyond the sixth inning (at most). The Brewers bullpen is bad. How bad is the Brewers bullpen? I’m glad you asked. In the last 30 days, they’ve given up 11 dongs, 44 earned runs and 98 hits. All rank in the bottom 10 in baseball over that stretch.

Sean Manaea gets a write up here primarily because of the state of the A’s bullpen. The Oakland ‘pen is worn out and underperforming. The good news here is that Manaea has throw six or more innings in six of his last eight outings. The bad news here is that Cleveland has a .327 wOBA against left handed pitching on the season. I expect Manaea to get through six innings (not without bumps along the way), before handing it off to this run down A’s bullpen. There could be some goodness here.

Rob Whalen has four starts under his belt and has gone for five innings twice and for six innings twice. Through those 22 innings, Whalen has allowed a healthy 14 earned runs and four dongs. Chase Field will be the toughest spot that he’s pitched in to this point, and I expect to see him go five innings or so in this one before handing the ball off to the Braves bullpen. The Braves bullpen allowed five earned runs (including a Goldy walk-off) last night, and I don’t expect much improvement tonight.

Archie Bradley has had a tough month of August. In his four starts this month, Bradley has allowed 18 earned runs though just 18 total innings pitched. The Braves offense has picked it up over the few weeks, and could certainly do more of the same tonight. The Diamondbacks bullpen has surrendered a league leading 21 dongs over the last 30 days to go along with the second worst SIERA over that stretch at 4.50 SIERA.

Christian Friedrich has four straight starts of six or more innings pitched, but has gone 0-3 over that span. Tonight, he faces Jake Arrieta and the Cubs. The Padres ‘pen has the third worst SIERA in baseball over the last 30 days and the seventh worst SIERA in baseball over the course of the season. I expect the Cubs to get into that bullpen early, and to score some runs against it.

As of now, I haven’t seen who is starting for the Seattle Mariners against the Yankees tonight. I will update as I find out more, but it’s a situation worth monitoring.

My Top 3 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Los Angeles Angels (not Angles)
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. San Diego Padres

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

There has been very little news of any roster movement since yesterday morning. There are a few minor league contracts signed and a few insignificant DL moves. Meanwhile, Jonathan Papelbon is still looking for work….

3. Other Notes And Insights

Zach Britton is now 38 for 38 in save opportunities. Zach Attack has not given up a single run since April!

I’m starting a reader fantasy football league (three spots taken so far)! Assign a name to the person in my RG avatar and the three funniest responses will get a spot in the 12-team league!

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

Legend