The Relief Brief: Tuesday, September 13th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-14 02:24:55

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Tuesday night features a full 15-game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights.

There is a strong theme of fatigued bullpens today, so every pitcher/bullpen that I highlight today will focus on the likelihood of the starting pitcher working deep into the game, the strength of bullpen, and the chances of bullpen implosion. Sounds fun, right? Here we go.

1. Bullpen Highlights

Matt Wisler has shown some promise in his last two starts, but let’s focus on the big picture here. Prior to his last two starts, Wisler gave up five or more earned runs in four straight outings and has given up at least three earned runs in 14 of his 22 starts on the season. Wisler has missed a few turns in the rotation with a “side” injury, so he may not be in line for a full range of pitches tonight either. The Braves bullpen used six different pitchers last night in relief and are bound to be fatigued tonight as well. Combine the iffy starting pitching with a tired ‘pen (who owns the seventh worst SIERA in baseball this season) and you have a potentially attractive spot to take a Marlins bat or two.

“Esch” sounds like a noise you might make when considering a six-year minor leaguer as your starting pitcher while trying to make a run at a wild card spot. Without further introduction, Jake Esch takes the hill tonight for the Marlins. Esch has not been impressive in any level this season, and has muddled his way through two big league starts. The opposition may be favorable, but Esch struggled against the Phillies earlier this month, so we can’t factor the opponent in too much (he struggled in the minor leagues after all). The Marlins ‘pen had to throw over 80 pitches last night, including work from just about all of their key arms. Marlins relievers own the third worst SIERA in baseball over the last 30 days, but they’ve only given up 0.8 HR/9. Why does this matter? Turner Field doesn’t give up many HR’s either, but the Marlins are still giving up runs regardless of the long ball. This is a spot to capitalize on.

After a better first half of the season, it appears that CC Sabathia is back to coughing up the long ball in a big way. Since the end of July (nine starts), CC has given up 13 homers. One thing Sabathia is doing well however, is working deep(ish) into ballgames, as he has gone six or more innings in five of his last six starts. The Yankees bullpen pitched just shy of seven innings last night and will need to get some rest tonight. Because of that, I expect CC to have a longer leash given his track record, and given the Dodgers struggles against left handed pitching.

Ivan Nova seems to have flipped a switch since early August. In his last four starts, Nova has two complete games and just five earned runs allowed. He is getting the mention here because Juan Nicasio, Antonio Bastardo, Jared Hughes and Felipe Rivero all logged heavy amounts of work last night. Nova has a favorable matchup and is likely going to be asked to work deep into this game as well. Expect a strong start from Nova and an extended leash as the Pirates hope to rest those relief arms tonight.

Remember that one time that I recommended attacking the overrated Orioles bullpen with Red Sox bats and the Red Sox ended up scoring 12 runs including six against the ‘pen? Yeah, that was yesterday. Remember that time that I recommended the same thing the following day? Yeah, that’s today. Dylan Bundy has thrown six or more innings just once in the last month (spanning six starts) and has been getting hit hard. Last time out against the Red Sox back on August 17th, he gave up nine hits, five earned runs and two dongs. I’m not saying that he’ll be that bad this time around, but I also don’t see reason for optimism. Bundy has been struggling and the O’s bullpen pitched nearly seven innings yesterday. The Red Sox bats seem to be heating up in a big way for the stretch run. Woof.

Since the beginning of July, A.J. Griffin owns a 6.39 ERA, a 5.39 xFIP, a 20.6 HR/FB% and a 2.86 HR/9 rate. Over that span of 12 starts, Griffin has reached six innings or more just twice. To make matters worse, the Rangers bullpen is both bad and tired, having used Matt Bush, Keone Kela, Jake Diekman and Sam Dyson heavily yesterday. Expect the Astros to get to Griffin and get into this fatigued bullpen early. This is another prime spot to attack. Also in that span of 12 starts, A.J. Griffin has given up 20 homers and 22 walks in just 63 innings pitched.

Last week, Brad Peacock made his first big league start since April of 2015. Peacock lasted just 3.2 innings before handing things over to the ‘pen. While the Astros ‘pen is absolutely excellent, they used five arms last night in their extra inning affair and are bound to be a bit fatigued tonight. Peacock is highly unlikely to provide much relief to the relief unit (see what I did there?), which is putting a lot of pressure on the Astros to either give Peacock a longer leash or to call up some fresh arms (more on that below). Overall, I can’t endorse attacking this Astros ‘pen because of how dominant they’ve been, but this is an intriguing GPP spot.

Robbie Ray is still racking up strikeouts and giving up runs. Ray’s xFIP is more than a whole run lower than his ERA, which sheds further light on his stuff and his impact on the mound. The thing to take note of here is that the Dbacks bullpen is the perfect storm of awful and tired. Arizona used five arms in relief yesterday (all of whom threw at least 13 pitches), and the bullpen as a whole owns a 4.32 SIERA on the season. Don’t expect much damage against Ray, but if he does struggle, this bullpen can give it up in a hurry.

Alex Meyer has made two big league starts and has combined to throw a total of six innings in those two outings. Meyer has been on the DL for most of 2016, and hasn’t thrown more than six innings at any level since April. Meyer is an unlikely candidate to reach that mark tonight, which could spell trouble for the Angles ‘pen. The Angels used long relievers Brett Oberholtzer (43 pitches) and Deolis Guerra (27 pitches) last night, which should render both unavailable tonight. If Meyer struggles, the Angles will be thin on middle relief options and could be even more susceptible than usual.

My Favorite Bullpens To Pick On

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Baltimore Orioles
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Texas Rangers
5. Miami Marlins

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Mariners recalled Cody Martin from AAA. Martin has been mediocre in the big leagues this season, but should provide the Mariners with an extra arm for low leverage situations down the stretch.

As of now, the Astros have not made any roster transactions to call up fresh arms. I’d be surprised if something hasn’t/doesn’t happen today on that front. I will update on twitter should anything occur.

3. Other Notes And Insights

The Yankees pitching staff as a whole has surrendered the fourth most HR/9 (1.35) in baseball this season while also owning the second best SIERA (3.66).

Feel free to follow me on Twitter – @collinman005

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