The Relief Brief: Wednesday, August 10th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-11 02:56:14

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Wednesday features a 12 game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights . Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

The Red Sox may have some buyer’s remorse when it comes to Drew Pomeranz. There has been a developing story in which the Red Sox have become aware of some medical issues that the Padres did not disclose during trade negotiations. Pomeranz has had two good starts and two poor starts in his tenure in Boston. The Yankees continue to struggle against left handed pitching, however. Expect Craig Kimbrel to be unavailable after throwing nearly 40 pitches last night while failing to close out the ninth.

Blake Snell has shown some promise in his ten starts in 2016. Snell has not been particularly economical as he has thrown for over 100 pitches on five occasions, but has managed to work more than six innings only twice. Snell gets the privilege (sarcasm) of facing the Blue Jays in Toronto. The Blue Jays have been above average against lefties in 2016, but have not sustained the same type of dominance that they did in 2015. Still, this is a bad spot for Snell and the Rays ‘pen. The Rays bullpen has allowed the 8th most HR/9 over the last 30 days.

Bartolo Colon was an All-Star this year. Wrap your head around that. Colon has started 22 games this season and has worked more than six innings in eight of those games, while he has worked less than six innings in 9 of those starts. Basically, Colon rarely goes deep into the game and often leaves his bullpen with some work to do. The Mets bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this season, posting the seventh best wOBA and K% in baseball. While Colon may look like an attractive pitcher to attack, he will give way to a very good bullpen in the mid to late innings.

Anthony DeSclafani continues to outpitch expectations. DeSclafani has 11 starts in 2016, and has managed to go for six or more innings in nine of those 11, while allowing two earned runs or less in eight of those games. The Cardinals continue their cold hitting, but the Reds bullpen is also horrendous (though I will continue to beat this dead horse and point out that they have been nearly a full run better in SIERA over the last 30 days). There is some contrarian appeal here, but it is likely a spot that I will ignore.

Ricky Nolasco went six innings and gave up three blasts to Oakland in his last start. That sounds a lot like a Hector Santiago pitching line (the two were essentially traded for one another). Nolasco has allowed plenty of runs, but generally works deep into games. He has exceeded 100 pitches on ten occasions this season. The matchup against the Cubs is never a good thing for a starting pitcher, especially at Wrigley Field. Look for Nolasco to work through five or six innings before yielding to a bullpen with the fourth worst SIERA in baseball on the season.

Chase Anderson has struggled his way through 2016. He ha started 22 games, but has only exceeded 100 pitches in three of them, largely due to ineffectiveness. In those 22 starts, Anderson has exceeded six innings only once and reached six innings only five times, while throwing less than five innings on seven occasions. Confused? It all means that Chase Anderson doesn’t work deep into games. The Braves will face plenty of this bullpen in Miller Park tonight. Last night, Atlanta disappointed in a favorable spot, and may fly a bit under the radar tonight. Still, they’re the same Braves they’ve been all season, plus Matt Kemp.

Since mid-June, Dallas Keuchel has been pitching very well. He hasn’t been the Cy Young winner that he was in 2015, but still very good. In nine starts dating back to June 18th, Keuchel has gone six or more innings in eight and has allowed two runs or less in seven. Keuchel does pitch better overall at home, and the Twins are swinging the bats much better lately, but there isn’t much appeal here for Minnesota. The Astros ‘pen is elite, and Keuchel is capable of limiting hard contact and inducing a plethora of ground balls (57.7% GB on the season).

The A’s are calling up several arms to make spot starts against the Orioles. Tonight, Ross Detwiler will get his chance. Detwiler has started 15 games in the minors this season on his way to posting an unimpressive 4.40 ERA (4.30 FIP). The Orioles have been in favorable spots in each of the last two nights and have failed to deliver, which makes them all the more appealing to me. The Oakland ‘pen is not impressive, and sits in the bottom 12 in most of the key statistical categories. The blowup chances are there, but the Orioles need to break out of their funk in order to take advantage of Detwiler and the bullpen. Ryan Madsen picked up the save for the second straight night, and may not be available today.

Felix Hernandez continues to struggle through his outings lately. Like Ricky Nolasco, King Felix manages to work deep into ballgames, but has also been surrendering plenty of runs. The Tigers have been one of the best offensive teams in baseball over the last two weeks and have the sixth best team wOBA against righties on the season. Keep in mind that the Mariners have an elite bullpen (3.37 SIERA, 26.1K%). The Mariners and Tigers played a 15 inning game last night in which each team used seven relievers. These two starters are likely to have some longer leash due to the overall fatigued state of each bullpen

My Top 3 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Minnesota Twins
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Milwaukee Brewers

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

Wilfredo Boscan was claimed off of waivers by the Braves – minimal impact if any here. He should be a mid-relief option.

The Tigers claimed Donn Roach off of waivers. Roach has been brutal over the last few seasons, and should be nothing more than bullpen depth or minor league depth.

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Last night, the Tigers and Mariners combined to use more pitchers than innings played – 16 pitchers total and 15 innings played.

Legend