The Relief Brief: Wednesday, August 24th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-25 03:10:48

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Wednesday night features a ten game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Tanner Roark will face the Orioles tonight as this series shifts to D.C. Roark has gone for six or more innings in 21 of his 25 starts on the season. Roark has been consistently reliable, though his underlying stats in August haven’t bee quite as strong. Regardless, Roark is nearly a lock for six innings, even against a tough opponent. The Nats bullpen continues to struggle a bit as they re-establish roles, so don’t be surprised to see Roark go a bit longer in this one, as long as he can keep the Orioles at bay.

Matt Andriese had a strong start to the season, but has thrown for more than five innings just once since May 30th (in his last start, which went for 5.1 innings). Aside from longevity, Andriese has been decent across the board. He is likely to exit this start relatively early due to the Red Sox patient approach at the plate. The Rays bullpen had to throw four innings behind Chris Archer last night, and will likely face a similar workload here. This bullpen is second worst in the league in HR/9 allowed on the season (1.38).

Tim Adleman now has five starts on the season, and hasn’t exceeded six innings in any of them. His BB/9 number is over four, which is certainly aiding to his lack of longevity. Some will look at the Rangers disappointing performance last night and rule them out, but that is one of my favorite instances to stack a lineup (coming off of a disappointing game). Expect Adleman to get through five innings or so before yielding to the bullpen, which boasts a 1.71 HR/9 rate and a 4.42 SIERA (both metrics are the worst in baseball).

In Matt Boyd’s last two starts, he has 13 innings and just one earned run allowed. His xFIP in those two combines starts sits above 5.25. Things aren’t always as they appear. Boyd does have the advantage of facing the Twins, who own the 25th ranked team wOBA over the last two weeks. The Tigers ‘pen is well below average in HR/9 and in SIERA over the last month, so there is potential here, but I’m not sure that the Twins are the team that you want to attack them with.

In Tyler Duffey’s last six starts, he has three outings of 3.2 innings pitched or less, while having three other outings of six innings or more. Over those six outings, he has surrendered 24 earned runs. Expect to see a healthy amount of the Twins bullpen here. As a unit, the Twins ‘pen has given up 1.26 HR/9. The Tigers have been hitting the ball out a lot over the last few weeks and are in a prime spot tonight.

Big Game James Shields has taken on an entirely new meaning as it no longer applies to his clutch pitching and more to the inflation of his earned runs and home runs allowed. In his last four starts, Shields has allowed 29 (not a misprint) earned runs and nine home runs. The one saving grace for Shields is that he faces the Phillies tonight. If this were anyone but the Phillies, it would be a chalk spot (and it still may be), but it’s tough to roster Phillies these days. With that said, the bullpen isn’t a whole lot better than Shields himself as they have put up the third worst SIERA in baseball over the course of the season.

Carlos Martinez has exceeded 100 pitches in more than half of his starts this season. I like a pitcher with that type of reliability, even when he may not be at his best. Martinez will face the Mets (24th ranked team wOBA in the last 14 days) in this one, and I expect a solid outing. The Cardinals bullpen has had to work lately and could use the rest, so don’t be surprised to see Carlos have a bit of a longer leash in this one.

Rich Hill will make his first start for the Dodgers and his first start for any team since July 17th. His blister issues are reportedly a thing of the past, and he’s ready to let it rip in L.A. On the season, Hill has been rock solid. Through 14 starts, Hill has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start and has exceeded six innings in 10 of the 13 starts. I expect the Dodgers to nurse Hill back into action, so the outing may not be more than five or six innings at most. That’s not necessarily good news for the Giants, as the Dodgers bullpen sports the fifth best SIERA and the fifth best strikeout percentage in baseball this season.

My Top 3 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Dodgers recalled Luis Avilan from AAA. He will likely pitch middle relief. Josh Fields was sent back down to AAA in a corresponding roster move.

The Mariners activated Tony Zych from the 60-day DL. Zych had been solid before the rotator cuff issues, and should bolster an already strong bullpen.

The Yankees recalled Ben Heller from AAA. Heller was a part of the Andrew Miller trade, but has not appeared in any big league games this season. He should get his chance in a middle relief capacity.

3. Other Notes And Insights

Over the last 30 days, the Astros bullpen has struck out 28.7% of opposing hitters. On the flip side, the Twins bullpen has struck out just 18.8% of opposing bats.

Clay Buchholz is obviously an avid reader of this article as he has clearly used my insults as motivation to piece together some good pitching lately. You do you, Clay.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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