MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 10th

Created 2 months ago, Last Updated 2 months ago

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Boston								Baltimore
			Nathan Eovaldi							Dylan Bundy
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -175							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.292	0.327	35.7%	1.08	19.7%	46.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.371	0.402	36.2%	1.75	19.9%	31.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.235	0.270	30.8%	1.63	25.4%	42.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.299	0.291	33.8%	2.23	30.7%	39.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Nathan Eovaldi
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,700	Salary:			$9,700	Salary:		$18,500
	Salary Rank:			6 of 28	Salary Rank:			5 of 28	Salary Rank:		5 of 28

	2018	12	3.59	3.38	22.6%	3.3%	44.3%	33.2%	20.3%	97.0	10.8%
	L14	2	4.25	0.00	18.0%	2.0%	35.0%	30.0%	15.0%	97.4	9.7%

Per usual Friday tradition, we have a massive slate on tap tonight. We start with the Red Sox and Orioles, two teams that are clearly heading in different directions. Eovaldi has been terrific in his first two starts with the Red Sox, pitching 15 scoreless innings while racking up nine strikeouts. The most impressive part is that he faced the Twins and Yankees. Tonight he draws a much better matchup, as he squares off against the Orioles, who are one of the best teams to target pitchers against. Their projected lineup has seven righties and as a whole, an xwOBA of only .312 with a strikeout rate of 26% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: It feels like a lot to pay for Eovaldi, but the form is there and it’s hard to argue with his matchup. He’s viable in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Dylan Bundy
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,200	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:			14 of 28	Salary Rank:			18 of 28	Salary Rank:		17 of 28
	2017	28	4.45	4.24	21.8%	7.3%	32.8%	36.5%	17.6%	92.2	11.4%
	2018	21	3.83	4.38	25.2%	7.2%	35.2%	35.1%	15.2%	91.6	12.7%
	L14	2	3.28	2.77	25.5%	3.9%	45.7%	37.1%	17.1%	91.6	8.7%

Bundy has been up and down all season, but overall, he owns a 3.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 7%. These are respectable numbers, especially for a starter that pitches in the American League East. The issue tonight is his matchup against the Red Sox, whose projected lineup has a .385 xwOBA with a .217 ISO against right-handed pitching. Bundy’s biggest weakness this season has been his 35% hard contact rate, which could be troublesome in a matchup against Boston.

Quick Breakdown: The risk outweighs the upside here. Avoid Bundy in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are an offense that can overcome a difficult matchup, but it’s worth pointing out that Dylan Bundy has held right-handed hitters to a .291 xwOBA with a 31% strikeout rate. This hurts the appeal of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts, although a case can still be made for them in tournaments. The top targets here are those that can bat from the left side. Bundy has allowed a .402 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to lefties, which brings Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers into play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.464	0.282	45.7%	10.9%	13.6%	34.2%	OF	$5,100	OF	$6,100	RF	$11,400
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.415	0.214	31.3%	13.6%	13.6%	37.9%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,800	LF	$10,600
3	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.422	0.237	35.8%	10.9%	19.8%	41.0%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,300
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.463	0.363	46.7%	9.9%	22.0%	44.7%	OF	$5,200	OF	$5,900	RF	$11,300
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.383	0.255	38.5%	6.9%	17.6%	47.6%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,700	SS	$9,200
6	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.334	0.215	36.6%	7.8%	23.7%	44.0%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,400
7	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.324	0.096	27.7%	8.0%	14.6%	53.5%	2B	$2,200	2B/SS	$3,300	2B	$6,300
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.278	0.117	30.2%	3.9%	25.8%	43.1%	C	$2,300	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.378	0.178	40.1%	10.1%	23.6%	40.8%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,500
	Team Averages		0.385	0.217	37.0%	9.1%	19.4%	43.0%

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Mookie Betts (GPP), J.D. Martinez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts (Cash), J.D. Martinez (Cash), Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Brock Holt

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles have one of the least talented offenses in baseball and one of the least appealing matchups of the slate. On the season, Nathan Eovaldi has held right-handed hitters to a .270 xwOBA with a 25% strikeout rate. This basically takes most of the Orioles’ hitters out of consideration. The only lefties that could possibly crack the lineup are Jonathan Villar, Chris Davis, and Jace Peterson. Villar does bring stolen base upside to the table at a cheap price point, but the rest of this offense can be avoided in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.264	0.080	30.1%	6.6%	28.4%	62.9%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,600
2	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.293	0.109	29.7%	6.3%	26.0%	46.8%	SS	$3,500	3B/SS	$3,400	SS	$6,500
3	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.332	0.177	33.5%	3.9%	18.0%	42.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,200
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.351	0.199	41.6%	7.0%	25.3%	38.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200	DH	$8,300
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.370	0.183	35.0%	8.6%	23.8%	49.8%	OF	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,400
6	Renato Nunez	RIGHT	0.320	0.145	40.5%	3.4%	22.4%	40.5%	3B	$2,200	3B	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,300
7	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.301	0.130	36.6%	8.8%	35.7%	41.1%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,300
8	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.307	0.141	31.4%	12.0%	25.1%	46.5%	OF	$2,300	3B/OF	$3,400	2B	$6,700
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.272	0.168	25.9%	3.4%	27.7%	43.0%	C	$2,400	C	$2,800	C	$5,700
	Team Averages		0.312	0.148	33.8%	6.7%	25.8%	45.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar

Stackability – ORANGE

Texas at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Texas								NY Yankees
			Mike Minor							Masahiro Tanaka
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -220							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.277	0.276	35.5%	0.86	23.2%	48.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.271	0.323	32.5%	1.06	24.0%	50.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.371	40.4%	1.59	19.7%	33.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.318	0.324	40.6%	2.08	27.9%	44.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Mike Minor
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:			$6,200	Salary:		$12,100
	Salary Rank:			16 of 28	Salary Rank:			21 of 28	Salary Rank:		21 of 28
	2017	0	3.16	2.55	28.7%	7.2%	42.4%	27.6%	22.5%	94.4	11.9%
	2018	21	4.19	4.53	20.3%	5.4%	36.2%	39.6%	18.6%	92.5	9.9%
	L14	2	2.63	2.08	29.8%	2.1%	46.9%	25.0%	31.3%	93.1	13.1%

Minor has been serviceable for the Rangers this season, but that’s not exactly the adjective that we are looking for to describe a pitching target in DFS. In 21 starts, Minor has a 4.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. He needs a good matchup to deserve consideration and he doesn’t draw one tonight. Not only is he pitching on the road, but he’s facing the team that leads the majors in home runs this season. The Yankees’ projected lineup has a .344 xwOBA with a .206 ISO against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Minor in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Masahiro Tanaka
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,600	Salary:			$10,400	Salary:		$20,600
	Salary Rank:			2 of 28	Salary Rank:			2 of 28	Salary Rank:		2 of 28
	2017	30	3.52	4.74	25.8%	5.5%	49.2%	31.4%	19.5%	92.2	15.1%
	2018	18	3.44	3.76	26.3%	6.3%	47.0%	37.2%	17.9%	91.7	14.1%
	L14	2	2.35	0.84	38.6%	6.8%	47.8%	47.8%	8.7%	91.6	14.9%

Tanaka has really pitched well this season, posting a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a ground ball rate of 47%. He still gives up more home runs than your average pitcher, but that shouldn’t stop us from targeting him in DFS. He has as much upside as any pitcher in the slate outside of Gerrit Cole (who has the tougher matchup of the two). While the Rangers do have some firepower in their lineup, they also have a 25% k-rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Given the discount off of Cole, Tanaka is my favorite pitcher to pay up for tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers draw a boom or bust matchup against Masahiro Tanaka. He has been in great form recently and he has an above-average strikeout rate, but has historically struggled to keep the ball in the park. I plan to have more exposure to Tanaka than to any of the Rangers’ hitters, but I don’t mind a few one-off plays for tournaments. Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo, and Robinson Chirinos all have home run upside in this matchup and should carry low ownership in tonight’s 14-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.413	0.236	46.8%	15.7%	22.8%	48.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,300
2	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.354	0.234	43.9%	8.1%	24.3%	37.7%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,400
3	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.302	0.130	34.5%	6.5%	14.1%	53.8%	SS	$3,700	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,800
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.334	0.128	41.0%	7.0%	20.9%	40.5%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,300
5	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.337	0.195	35.3%	8.7%	14.4%	44.3%	1B	$3,800	3B/SS	$4,500	SS	$8,900
6	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.399	0.257	47.0%	15.1%	33.0%	30.9%	OF	$3,900	1B/OF	$4,700	1B	$9,100
7	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.320	0.214	47.9%	9.4%	36.3%	31.7%	C	$2,900	C	$3,900	C	$7,800
8	Willie Calhoun	LEFT	0.258	0.146	24.2%	6.7%	20.0%	36.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,300
9	Carlos Tocci	RIGHT	0.185	0.053	21.9%	4.8%	41.9%	46.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.322	0.177	38.1%	9.1%	25.3%	41.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (GPP), Joey Gallo (GPP), Robinson Chirinos (DK GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees hit a bunch of home runs last night and will look to keep it rolling tonight against Mike Minor. Even without Aaron Judge in the lineup, they still have one of the most talented offenses in baseball. On the season, Minor has allowed a .371 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, and Luke Voit all bat from the right side and all have an ISO of at least .230 against left-handed pitching this season. A full stack is firmly in play and you can target all of these righties as elite plays individually.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.425	0.337	52.1%	13.0%	20.4%	35.7%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,400
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.464	0.352	59.7%	10.8%	25.0%	37.7%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,100	RF	$9,700
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.293	0.158	28.3%	7.9%	13.4%	45.3%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,600	SS	$9,100
4	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.405	0.278	51.0%	11.0%	26.8%	31.4%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,600	2B	$8,900
5	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.317	0.245	34.1%	5.3%	19.3%	43.5%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,200
6	Luke Voit	RIGHT	0.402	0.231	50.0%	7.1%	21.4%	50.0%	1B	$2,000	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,600
7	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.292	0.076	20.8%	11.4%	20.0%	54.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,100
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.277	0.178	29.4%	4.3%	23.4%	41.2%	C	$2,600	C	$3,200	C	$6,800
9	Shane Robinson	RIGHT	0.224	0.000	25.0%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,600
	Team Averages		0.344	0.206	38.9%	9.7%	20.7%	37.7%

Elite Plays – Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Luke Voit

Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Toronto
			Blake Snell							Marco Estrada
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -100							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.186	0.268	35.8%	0.30	30.9%	51.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.311	0.317	24.6%	1.05	17.4%	26.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.292	0.307	33.6%	1.17	27.2%	41.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.349	0.366	33.0%	1.71	17.7%	24.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Blake Snell
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,200	Salary:			$9,900	Salary:		$19,700
	Salary Rank:			4 of 28	Salary Rank:			4 of 28	Salary Rank:		3 of 28
	2017	24	4.72	4.04	21.8%	10.8%	43.9%	32.9%	18.8%	94.3	10.8%
	2018	21	3.75	2.27	28.0%	10.0%	43.3%	34.1%	18.5%	95.5	13.5%
	L14	1	5.22	2.25	20.0%	13.3%	40.0%	50.0%	10.0%	95.6	13.6%

Snell made a trip to the DL with a shoulder injury. He’s made one start since coming back, but he only pitched four innings against the White Sox (59 pitches) and struck out three batters. We know the young southpaw is incredibly talented, but the Rays have no reason to push him the rest of the season. They are well out of playoff contention, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they monitored his innings the rest of the way. Given the unknowns and his matchup against the right-handed heavy Blue Jays, I will be looking elsewhere at pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Snell in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Marco Estrada
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:		$13,600
	Salary Rank:			13 of 28	Salary Rank:			14 of 28	Salary Rank:		15 of 28
	2017	33	4.69	4.98	21.8%	8.8%	30.3%	27.2%	21.4%	89.9	10.9%
	2018	19	5.13	4.65	17.6%	7.1%	25.4%	29.4%	19.3%	88.9	9.6%
	L14	2	7.25	4.09	9.1%	11.4%	22.9%	25.7%	17.1%	88.0	7.4%

Estrada has struggled all season. In 19 starts, he owns a 5.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and an extremely high fly-ball rate. These numbers are going to lead to trouble, especially in this hitter-friendly ballpark. We have an interesting decision to make tonight, as we have a bad pitcher (Estrada) facing off against a bad offense. The projected lineup for the Rays has an average xwOBA of .296 with a .120 ISO and a strikeout rate of 21% against right-handed pitching. I would have some interest in Estrada in tournaments if the sites didn’t price him up for this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: I need to see better form from Estrada before using him in a 14-game slate.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Toronto and they draw one of the best matchups of the slate. The issue (once again) is that they are priced up across the industry. When I am targeting a bad offense, I want to get a discounted price point. We haven’t really seen that with the Rays over the last week. Rather than a full stack, I will chase the home run upside with the bats of Jake Bauers and C.J. Cron, who both boast a .230+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.295	0.123	29.8%	8.9%	18.4%	46.2%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,600	CF	$8,900
2	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.310	0.083	28.0%	5.4%	15.2%	52.6%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,200
3	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.373	0.248	45.2%	14.9%	24.1%	42.3%	1B	$3,500	1B/OF	$4,300	1B	$8,300
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.350	0.232	38.1%	5.8%	25.0%	42.6%	1B	$2,800	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,300
5	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.321	0.124	35.8%	6.1%	19.2%	46.7%	2B	$3,000	2B/OF	$3,800	2B	$7,700
6	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.265	0.104	32.0%	8.1%	26.3%	51.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,700
7	Brandon Lowe	LEFT	0.145	0.000	0.0%	16.7%	16.7%	25.0%	2B	$2,200	OF	$2,900	2B	$5,800
8	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.278	0.127	26.0%	7.2%	27.0%	43.1%	SS	$2,400	2B/SS	$3,600	SS	$7,200
9	Michael Perez	LEFT	0.330	0.043	35.0%	7.7%	15.4%	30.0%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	C	$5,700
	Team Averages		0.296	0.120	30.0%	9.0%	20.8%	42.2%

Elite Plays – Jake Bauers (GPP), C.J. Cron (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jake Bauers (Cash), C.J. Cron (Cash), Mallex Smith, Matt Duffy

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays don’t have a great matchup on paper, but we haven’t seen much from Blake Snell over the last month of play. We know that he’s better at home than he is on the road and when you couple that with potential rust, Toronto could be a sneaky offense to target in tournaments. On the season, Snell has allowed a .307 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Randal Grichuk, Devon Travis, Teoscar Hernandez, and Kendrys Morales all bat from the right side and all boast a .340+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.342	0.165	26.5%	7.0%	24.0%	41.2%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,500
2	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.381	0.257	29.0%	1.4%	11.3%	43.5%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,700
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.306	0.142	23.8%	9.9%	22.4%	49.5%	1B	$3,800	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,300
4	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.371	0.306	33.3%	7.6%	30.5%	38.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,300
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.352	0.126	35.4%	7.8%	20.7%	46.3%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,300
6	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.333	0.214	30.7%	6.4%	12.1%	37.8%	3B	$3,200	2B/3B	$3,300	3B	$6,700
7	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.319	0.220	28.4%	5.7%	17.0%	41.8%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,200
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.278	0.149	34.7%	3.3%	14.9%	39.2%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,700
9	Luke Maile	RIGHT	0.392	0.245	50.0%	12.3%	28.1%	32.4%	C	$2,500	C	$3,100	C	$5,600
	Team Averages		0.342	0.203	32.4%	6.8%	20.1%	41.1%

Elite Plays – Devon Travis

Secondary Plays – Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Arizona at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Arizona								Cincinnati
			Clay Buchholz							Anthony DeSclafani
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ARI -115							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.245	0.289	32.1%	1.19	21.7%	45.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.411	0.403	43.8%	3.41	15.8%	30.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.339	0.378	43.9%	1.01	22.1%	35.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.279	0.258	46.0%	1.17	24.0%	45.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Clay Buchholz
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,300	Salary:			$8,800	Salary:		$16,700
	Salary Rank:			8 of 28	Salary Rank:			7 of 28	Salary Rank:		7 of 28
	2017	2	5.82	12.27	12.5%	7.5%	28.1%	28.1%	18.8%	90.6	6.9%
	2018	10	3.99	2.68	21.9%	6.0%	40.2%	38.0%	18.1%	90.3	10.4%
	L14	2	3.66	3.86	28.3%	9.4%	38.7%	45.5%	21.2%	90.1	13.8%

Buchholz has quietly pitched well this season, posting a 3.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. He’s looked good since coming back from injury, but finds himself in a difficult spot tonight. The Reds’ offense has been reeling of late, but Buchholz has to pitch in one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in all of baseball. The larger the slate, the less likely I am to take pitchers that have more downside than upside. That’s what I see with Buchholz here, even though I’ve been impressed by his play this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Buchholz in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Anthony DeSclafani
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:			$6,100	Salary:		$11,900
	Salary Rank:			19 of 28	Salary Rank:			22 of 28	Salary Rank:		22 of 28

	2018	11	4.39	4.98	19.8%	7.1%	37.6%	44.8%	15.3%	93.1	8.0%
	L14	2	4.45	3.18	19.2%	6.4%	33.3%	28.6%	28.6%	93.3	8.6%

DeSclafani hasn’t been on my radar often this season. His struggles against left-handed hitters make him viable only when he’s facing a right-handed heavy offense. He doesn’t get that tonight against the Diamondbacks, who are projected to have six lefties in their lineup. On the season, DeSclafani has allowed a .403 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate, which will be troublesome in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid DeSclafani in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks see a ballpark boost playing in Cincinnati and draw an exploitable matchup against Anthony DeSclafani. As noted above, he has allowed a .403 xwOBA, a 3.41 HR/9, and a 43% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. David Peralta is one of the top hitters of the slate, regardless of price. Jon Jay, Eduardo Escobar, Daniel Descalso, and Alex Avila are also viable at their respective positions. Paul Goldschmidt is intriguing as a part of a full stack, as the Diamondbacks might be able to knock DeSclafani around early and then get into the hittable Reds’ bullpen.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.325	0.110	37.6%	4.4%	14.1%	55.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,000
2	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.378	0.216	44.4%	12.7%	27.6%	41.5%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,800	1B	$8,800
3	David Peralta	LEFT	0.382	0.249	48.7%	7.5%	18.5%	48.9%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,500	RF	$10,100
4	A.J. Pollock	RIGHT	0.376	0.235	44.9%	7.6%	21.7%	40.2%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,800	CF	$9,100
5	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.364	0.284	40.9%	7.2%	21.4%	27.4%	3B	$3,800	3B/SS	$4,400	3B	$8,400
6	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.361	0.188	39.5%	17.7%	23.5%	29.6%	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$4,100	3B	$8,400
7	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.308	0.128	30.1%	8.2%	14.2%	53.4%	2B	$3,300	2B/SS	$4,300	SS	$8,200
8	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.352	0.162	54.8%	15.6%	39.7%	41.9%	C	$2,300	C	$3,500	C	$6,700
9	Clay Buchholz	RIGHT	0.197	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	37.5%	20.0%	P	$8,300	P	$8,800	P	$16,700
	Team Averages		0.338	0.175	40.1%	9.0%	24.2%	39.8%

Elite Plays – David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar, Daniel Descalso

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Alex Avila (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds have the tougher matchup of the two teams. Throughout his career, Clay Buchholz has allowed a higher wOBA to lefties, but that hasn’t been the case this season. In fact, in 2018, he has had some serious reverse-splits, allowing a .378 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. I’m not buying a ton of stock in the Reds’ offense right now, but Eugenio Suarez stands out as an excellent one-off target. He owns a .376 xwOBA and a .352 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.299	0.111	30.9%	5.9%	12.3%	36.7%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,800	SS	$7,300
2	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.454	0.158	38.7%	19.0%	13.5%	34.6%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,100
3	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.344	0.181	38.4%	7.8%	18.1%	39.6%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,400	2B	$8,600
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.376	0.253	48.1%	8.6%	22.9%	35.7%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,600	3B	$9,000
5	Mason Williams	LEFT	0.299	0.111	43.3%	2.6%	20.5%	53.8%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,700
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.335	0.105	39.2%	10.2%	16.2%	41.7%	C	$2,000	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
7	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.297	0.179	40.7%	5.5%	25.2%	47.1%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,400
8	Anthony DeSclafani	RIGHT	0.142	0.000	14.3%	0.0%	65.0%	50.0%	P	$6,500	P	$6,100	P	$11,900
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.249	0.064	18.9%	9.5%	23.7%	44.1%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,700
	Team Averages		0.311	0.129	34.7%	7.7%	24.2%	42.6%

Elite Plays – Eugenio Suarez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eugenio Suarez (Cash), Jose Peraza, Mason Williams

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Minnesota at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Detroit
			Ervin Santana							Jordan Zimmermann
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET -100							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.414	0.455	38.2%	2.79	11.4%	20.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.317	0.316	34.5%	1.60	23.3%	33.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.402	0.387	31.6%	1.80	16.7%	15.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	0.322	35.0%	1.66	21.6%	30.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Ervin Santana
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,100	Salary:			$6,400	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:			23 of 28	Salary Rank:			19 of 28	Salary Rank:		20 of 28
	2017	33	4.60	3.28	19.3%	7.1%	41.2%	27.9%	22.3%	92.9	10.1%
	2018	3	5.88	6.14	13.2%	5.9%	18.9%	35.9%	24.5%	88.8	4.6%
	L14	2	6.82	6.52	8.9%	6.7%	18.9%	35.1%	27.0%	88.6	3.6%

Santana has not been sharp in his first three starts of the season, posting a 5.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 13%. He hasn’t been able to induce any ground balls and when you add a 36% hard contact rate on top of it, that’s going to cause problems. Even though a matchup against the Tigers is tempting, we need Santana to flash some form before considering him in a 14-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Santana in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jordan Zimmermann
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:		$14,500
	Salary Rank:			12 of 28	Salary Rank:			12 of 28	Salary Rank:		12 of 28
	2017	29	5.22	6.08	14.5%	6.2%	33.2%	39.5%	13.4%	92.2	8.1%
	2018	15	3.94	4.31	22.5%	4.9%	32.1%	34.8%	19.9%	91.2	9.7%
	L14	2	5.08	6.75	18.2%	9.1%	25.0%	37.5%	12.5%	91.1	7.1%

Zimmermann has had a nice season as a whole, posting a 3.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. Unfortunately, his last few starts have looked a lot more like the 2017 version than the 2018 version. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, so he needs that high k-rate and good control to succeed. When those tail off, he tends to struggle. The Twins aren’t thought of as a potent offense, but their projected lineup for tonight’s game has a .337 xwOBA with a 38% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Zimmermann in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins draw a favorable matchup against Jordan Zimmermann and should fly under the radar tonight. While Zimmermann has managed to hold both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA, his recent form brings a number of Twins’ hitters into play. Logan Morrison and Joe Mauer are dirt cheap across the industry and they both own an xwOBA of at least .370 against right-handed pitching. Mauer is the better cash game target, while Morrison brings more home run upside to the table for tournaments. Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler are also viable depending on where they bat in the order.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.401	0.096	44.5%	11.4%	12.5%	48.7%	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,700
2	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.343	0.235	39.0%	7.0%	17.6%	32.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,000
3	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.302	0.115	25.4%	14.1%	20.7%	41.4%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,600
4	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.305	0.232	50.0%	9.6%	39.5%	42.5%	3B	$2,600	1B/3B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,200
5	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.330	0.172	38.7%	12.4%	14.0%	39.6%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,300
6	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.291	0.097	31.6%	8.0%	19.7%	46.9%	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$2,900	2B	$5,400
7	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.373	0.208	41.2%	10.0%	20.4%	29.1%	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,800
8	Mitch Garver	RIGHT	0.330	0.181	43.1%	9.0%	24.6%	42.6%	C	$2,100	C	$3,300	C	$6,700
9	Jake Cave	LEFT	0.359	0.167	32.5%	3.7%	25.0%	46.1%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.337	0.167	38.4%	9.5%	21.6%	41.1%

Elite Plays – Logan Morrison, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eddie Rosario (Cash), Joe Mauer, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers offer some nice salary cap relief tonight. While they may not have the upside needed to win someone a tournament (as a full stack), their lineup is loaded with nice value plays. They are playing at home and draw an exploitable matchup against Ervin Santana, who has allowed a .455 xwOBA to lefties and a .387 xwOBA to righties this season. Mike Gerber is the min-price on FanDuel ($2,000), while Nick Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario, and Niko Goodrum all boast a .180+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mike Gerber	LEFT	0.268	0.056	16.7%	10.0%	30.0%	25.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,500
2	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.264	0.099	25.7%	3.4%	11.3%	45.7%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,400
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.368	0.183	47.4%	5.6%	24.9%	33.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,800
4	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.291	0.181	33.7%	11.0%	25.2%	38.0%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,500
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.334	0.075	39.7%	7.2%	9.7%	38.0%	C	$2,100	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,600
6	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.309	0.212	37.1%	7.6%	30.9%	39.1%	2B	$2,300	2B/OF	$3,400	1B	$6,900
7	Jim Adduci	LEFT	0.259	0.167	30.3%	4.0%	30.0%	45.5%	OF	$2,200	1B	$3,400	LF	$6,800
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.271	0.085	35.9%	5.8%	22.8%	39.1%	C	$2,200	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
9	Victor Reyes	RIGHT	0.246	0.039	33.8%	1.9%	21.2%	51.9%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,100	LF	$5,800
	Team Averages		0.290	0.122	33.4%	6.3%	22.9%	39.6%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos, Mike Gerber (FD)

Secondary Plays – Mike Gerber (DK), Jose Iglesias, Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 10th

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Texas at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Arizona at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Minnesota at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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About the Author

Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

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