MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 10th

Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Created 10 months ago, Last Updated 10 months ago

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Boston Baltimore
Nathan Eovaldi Dylan Bundy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -175 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.292 0.327 35.7% 1.08 19.7% 46.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.371 0.402 36.2% 1.75 19.9% 31.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.235 0.270 30.8% 1.63 25.4% 42.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.299 0.291 33.8% 2.23 30.7% 39.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nathan Eovaldi
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $9,700 Salary: $18,500
Salary Rank: 6 of 28 Salary Rank: 5 of 28 Salary Rank: 5 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 12 3.59 3.38 22.6% 3.3% 44.3% 33.2% 20.3% 97.0 10.8%
L14 2 4.25 0.00 18.0% 2.0% 35.0% 30.0% 15.0% 97.4 9.7%

Per usual Friday tradition, we have a massive slate on tap tonight. We start with the Red Sox and Orioles, two teams that are clearly heading in different directions. Eovaldi has been terrific in his first two starts with the Red Sox, pitching 15 scoreless innings while racking up nine strikeouts. The most impressive part is that he faced the Twins and Yankees. Tonight he draws a much better matchup, as he squares off against the Orioles, who are one of the best teams to target pitchers against. Their projected lineup has seven righties and as a whole, an xwOBA of only .312 with a strikeout rate of 26% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: It feels like a lot to pay for Eovaldi, but the form is there and it’s hard to argue with his matchup. He’s viable in all formats.

Dylan Bundy
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank: 17 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 4.45 4.24 21.8% 7.3% 32.8% 36.5% 17.6% 92.2 11.4%
2018 21 3.83 4.38 25.2% 7.2% 35.2% 35.1% 15.2% 91.6 12.7%
L14 2 3.28 2.77 25.5% 3.9% 45.7% 37.1% 17.1% 91.6 8.7%

Bundy has been up and down all season, but overall, he owns a 3.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 7%. These are respectable numbers, especially for a starter that pitches in the American League East. The issue tonight is his matchup against the Red Sox, whose projected lineup has a .385 xwOBA with a .217 ISO against right-handed pitching. Bundy’s biggest weakness this season has been his 35% hard contact rate, which could be troublesome in a matchup against Boston.

Quick Breakdown: The risk outweighs the upside here. Avoid Bundy in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are an offense that can overcome a difficult matchup, but it’s worth pointing out that Dylan Bundy has held right-handed hitters to a .291 xwOBA with a 31% strikeout rate. This hurts the appeal of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts, although a case can still be made for them in tournaments. The top targets here are those that can bat from the left side. Bundy has allowed a .402 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to lefties, which brings Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers into play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.464 0.282 45.7% 10.9% 13.6% 34.2% OF $5,100 OF $6,100 RF $11,400
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.415 0.214 31.3% 13.6% 13.6% 37.9% OF $4,300 OF $5,800 LF $10,600
3 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.422 0.237 35.8% 10.9% 19.8% 41.0% 1B $3,500 1B $4,600 1B $9,300
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.463 0.363 46.7% 9.9% 22.0% 44.7% OF $5,200 OF $5,900 RF $11,300
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.383 0.255 38.5% 6.9% 17.6% 47.6% SS $3,800 SS $4,700 SS $9,200
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.334 0.215 36.6% 7.8% 23.7% 44.0% 3B $3,200 3B $4,200 3B $8,400
7 Brock Holt LEFT 0.324 0.096 27.7% 8.0% 14.6% 53.5% 2B $2,200 2B/SS $3,300 2B $6,300
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.278 0.117 30.2% 3.9% 25.8% 43.1% C $2,300 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.378 0.178 40.1% 10.1% 23.6% 40.8% OF $2,700 OF $4,000 CF $7,500
Team Averages 0.385 0.217 37.0% 9.1% 19.4% 43.0%

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Mookie Betts (GPP), J.D. Martinez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts (Cash), J.D. Martinez (Cash), Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Brock Holt

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles have one of the least talented offenses in baseball and one of the least appealing matchups of the slate. On the season, Nathan Eovaldi has held right-handed hitters to a .270 xwOBA with a 25% strikeout rate. This basically takes most of the Orioles’ hitters out of consideration. The only lefties that could possibly crack the lineup are Jonathan Villar, Chris Davis, and Jace Peterson. Villar does bring stolen base upside to the table at a cheap price point, but the rest of this offense can be avoided in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.264 0.080 30.1% 6.6% 28.4% 62.9% 2B $2,700 2B $3,700 2B $7,600
2 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.293 0.109 29.7% 6.3% 26.0% 46.8% SS $3,500 3B/SS $3,400 SS $6,500
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.332 0.177 33.5% 3.9% 18.0% 42.7% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 CF $7,200
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.351 0.199 41.6% 7.0% 25.3% 38.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 DH $8,300
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.370 0.183 35.0% 8.6% 23.8% 49.8% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,400
6 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.320 0.145 40.5% 3.4% 22.4% 40.5% 3B $2,200 3B $3,800 IF/OF $7,300
7 Chris Davis LEFT 0.301 0.130 36.6% 8.8% 35.7% 41.1% 1B $2,300 1B $3,400 IF/OF $6,300
8 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.307 0.141 31.4% 12.0% 25.1% 46.5% OF $2,300 3B/OF $3,400 2B $6,700
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.272 0.168 25.9% 3.4% 27.7% 43.0% C $2,400 C $2,800 C $5,700
Team Averages 0.312 0.148 33.8% 6.7% 25.8% 45.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar

Stackability – ORANGE

Texas at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Texas NY Yankees
Mike Minor Masahiro Tanaka
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY -220 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.277 0.276 35.5% 0.86 23.2% 48.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.271 0.323 32.5% 1.06 24.0% 50.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.331 0.371 40.4% 1.59 19.7% 33.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.324 40.6% 2.08 27.9% 44.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Minor
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,100
Salary Rank: 16 of 28 Salary Rank: 21 of 28 Salary Rank: 21 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 3.16 2.55 28.7% 7.2% 42.4% 27.6% 22.5% 94.4 11.9%
2018 21 4.19 4.53 20.3% 5.4% 36.2% 39.6% 18.6% 92.5 9.9%
L14 2 2.63 2.08 29.8% 2.1% 46.9% 25.0% 31.3% 93.1 13.1%

Minor has been serviceable for the Rangers this season, but that’s not exactly the adjective that we are looking for to describe a pitching target in DFS. In 21 starts, Minor has a 4.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. He needs a good matchup to deserve consideration and he doesn’t draw one tonight. Not only is he pitching on the road, but he’s facing the team that leads the majors in home runs this season. The Yankees’ projected lineup has a .344 xwOBA with a .206 ISO against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Minor in all formats.

Masahiro Tanaka
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $10,400 Salary: $20,600
Salary Rank: 2 of 28 Salary Rank: 2 of 28 Salary Rank: 2 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 30 3.52 4.74 25.8% 5.5% 49.2% 31.4% 19.5% 92.2 15.1%
2018 18 3.44 3.76 26.3% 6.3% 47.0% 37.2% 17.9% 91.7 14.1%
L14 2 2.35 0.84 38.6% 6.8% 47.8% 47.8% 8.7% 91.6 14.9%

Tanaka has really pitched well this season, posting a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a ground ball rate of 47%. He still gives up more home runs than your average pitcher, but that shouldn’t stop us from targeting him in DFS. He has as much upside as any pitcher in the slate outside of Gerrit Cole (who has the tougher matchup of the two). While the Rangers do have some firepower in their lineup, they also have a 25% k-rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Given the discount off of Cole, Tanaka is my favorite pitcher to pay up for tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers draw a boom or bust matchup against Masahiro Tanaka. He has been in great form recently and he has an above-average strikeout rate, but has historically struggled to keep the ball in the park. I plan to have more exposure to Tanaka than to any of the Rangers’ hitters, but I don’t mind a few one-off plays for tournaments. Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo, and Robinson Chirinos all have home run upside in this matchup and should carry low ownership in tonight’s 14-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-Soo Choo LEFT 0.413 0.236 46.8% 15.7% 22.8% 48.6% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 RF $8,300
2 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.354 0.234 43.9% 8.1% 24.3% 37.7% 2B $4,100 2B $4,700 2B $9,400
3 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.302 0.130 34.5% 6.5% 14.1% 53.8% SS $3,700 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.334 0.128 41.0% 7.0% 20.9% 40.5% 3B $3,300 3B $3,300 3B $6,300
5 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.337 0.195 35.3% 8.7% 14.4% 44.3% 1B $3,800 3B/SS $4,500 SS $8,900
6 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.399 0.257 47.0% 15.1% 33.0% 30.9% OF $3,900 1B/OF $4,700 1B $9,100
7 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.320 0.214 47.9% 9.4% 36.3% 31.7% C $2,900 C $3,900 C $7,800
8 Willie Calhoun LEFT 0.258 0.146 24.2% 6.7% 20.0% 36.4% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,300
9 Carlos Tocci RIGHT 0.185 0.053 21.9% 4.8% 41.9% 46.4% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 CF $5,900
Team Averages 0.322 0.177 38.1% 9.1% 25.3% 41.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (GPP), Joey Gallo (GPP), Robinson Chirinos (DK GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees hit a bunch of home runs last night and will look to keep it rolling tonight against Mike Minor. Even without Aaron Judge in the lineup, they still have one of the most talented offenses in baseball. On the season, Minor has allowed a .371 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, and Luke Voit all bat from the right side and all have an ISO of at least .230 against left-handed pitching this season. A full stack is firmly in play and you can target all of these righties as elite plays individually.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.425 0.337 52.1% 13.0% 20.4% 35.7% OF $3,900 OF $4,700 CF $9,400
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.464 0.352 59.7% 10.8% 25.0% 37.7% OF $4,900 OF $5,100 RF $9,700
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.293 0.158 28.3% 7.9% 13.4% 45.3% SS $3,900 SS $4,600 SS $9,100
4 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.405 0.278 51.0% 11.0% 26.8% 31.4% 2B $3,900 2B $4,600 2B $8,900
5 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.317 0.245 34.1% 5.3% 19.3% 43.5% 3B $3,600 3B $4,100 3B $8,200
6 Luke Voit RIGHT 0.402 0.231 50.0% 7.1% 21.4% 50.0% 1B $2,000 1B $3,500 1B $6,600
7 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.292 0.076 20.8% 11.4% 20.0% 54.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.277 0.178 29.4% 4.3% 23.4% 41.2% C $2,600 C $3,200 C $6,800
9 Shane Robinson RIGHT 0.224 0.000 25.0% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,700 CF $5,600
Team Averages 0.344 0.206 38.9% 9.7% 20.7% 37.7%

Elite Plays – Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Luke Voit

Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Tampa Bay Toronto
Blake Snell Marco Estrada
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -100 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.186 0.268 35.8% 0.30 30.9% 51.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.317 24.6% 1.05 17.4% 26.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.307 33.6% 1.17 27.2% 41.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.366 33.0% 1.71 17.7% 24.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Blake Snell
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $9,900 Salary: $19,700
Salary Rank: 4 of 28 Salary Rank: 4 of 28 Salary Rank: 3 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 24 4.72 4.04 21.8% 10.8% 43.9% 32.9% 18.8% 94.3 10.8%
2018 21 3.75 2.27 28.0% 10.0% 43.3% 34.1% 18.5% 95.5 13.5%
L14 1 5.22 2.25 20.0% 13.3% 40.0% 50.0% 10.0% 95.6 13.6%

Snell made a trip to the DL with a shoulder injury. He’s made one start since coming back, but he only pitched four innings against the White Sox (59 pitches) and struck out three batters. We know the young southpaw is incredibly talented, but the Rays have no reason to push him the rest of the season. They are well out of playoff contention, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they monitored his innings the rest of the way. Given the unknowns and his matchup against the right-handed heavy Blue Jays, I will be looking elsewhere at pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Snell in all formats.

Marco Estrada
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 13 of 28 Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 15 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 4.69 4.98 21.8% 8.8% 30.3% 27.2% 21.4% 89.9 10.9%
2018 19 5.13 4.65 17.6% 7.1% 25.4% 29.4% 19.3% 88.9 9.6%
L14 2 7.25 4.09 9.1% 11.4% 22.9% 25.7% 17.1% 88.0 7.4%

Estrada has struggled all season. In 19 starts, he owns a 5.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and an extremely high fly-ball rate. These numbers are going to lead to trouble, especially in this hitter-friendly ballpark. We have an interesting decision to make tonight, as we have a bad pitcher (Estrada) facing off against a bad offense. The projected lineup for the Rays has an average xwOBA of .296 with a .120 ISO and a strikeout rate of 21% against right-handed pitching. I would have some interest in Estrada in tournaments if the sites didn’t price him up for this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: I need to see better form from Estrada before using him in a 14-game slate.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Toronto and they draw one of the best matchups of the slate. The issue (once again) is that they are priced up across the industry. When I am targeting a bad offense, I want to get a discounted price point. We haven’t really seen that with the Rays over the last week. Rather than a full stack, I will chase the home run upside with the bats of Jake Bauers and C.J. Cron, who both boast a .230+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.295 0.123 29.8% 8.9% 18.4% 46.2% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 CF $8,900
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.310 0.083 28.0% 5.4% 15.2% 52.6% 3B $3,000 3B $3,800 3B $7,200
3 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.373 0.248 45.2% 14.9% 24.1% 42.3% 1B $3,500 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,300
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.350 0.232 38.1% 5.8% 25.0% 42.6% 1B $2,800 1B $4,000 1B $7,300
5 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.321 0.124 35.8% 6.1% 19.2% 46.7% 2B $3,000 2B/OF $3,800 2B $7,700
6 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.265 0.104 32.0% 8.1% 26.3% 51.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 CF $7,700
7 Brandon Lowe LEFT 0.145 0.000 0.0% 16.7% 16.7% 25.0% 2B $2,200 OF $2,900 2B $5,800
8 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.278 0.127 26.0% 7.2% 27.0% 43.1% SS $2,400 2B/SS $3,600 SS $7,200
9 Michael Perez LEFT 0.330 0.043 35.0% 7.7% 15.4% 30.0% C $2,100 C $3,000 C $5,700
Team Averages 0.296 0.120 30.0% 9.0% 20.8% 42.2%

Elite Plays – Jake Bauers (GPP), C.J. Cron (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jake Bauers (Cash), C.J. Cron (Cash), Mallex Smith, Matt Duffy

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays don’t have a great matchup on paper, but we haven’t seen much from Blake Snell over the last month of play. We know that he’s better at home than he is on the road and when you couple that with potential rust, Toronto could be a sneaky offense to target in tournaments. On the season, Snell has allowed a .307 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Randal Grichuk, Devon Travis, Teoscar Hernandez, and Kendrys Morales all bat from the right side and all boast a .340+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.342 0.165 26.5% 7.0% 24.0% 41.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
2 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.381 0.257 29.0% 1.4% 11.3% 43.5% 2B $2,500 2B $3,400 2B $6,700
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.306 0.142 23.8% 9.9% 22.4% 49.5% 1B $3,800 1B $3,900 1B $7,300
4 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.371 0.306 33.3% 7.6% 30.5% 38.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 LF $7,300
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.352 0.126 35.4% 7.8% 20.7% 46.3% 1B $2,700 1B $3,300 1B $6,300
6 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.333 0.214 30.7% 6.4% 12.1% 37.8% 3B $3,200 2B/3B $3,300 3B $6,700
7 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.319 0.220 28.4% 5.7% 17.0% 41.8% SS $3,000 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.278 0.149 34.7% 3.3% 14.9% 39.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
9 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.392 0.245 50.0% 12.3% 28.1% 32.4% C $2,500 C $3,100 C $5,600
Team Averages 0.342 0.203 32.4% 6.8% 20.1% 41.1%

Elite Plays – Devon Travis

Secondary Plays – Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Arizona at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Arizona Cincinnati
Clay Buchholz Anthony DeSclafani
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI -115 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.245 0.289 32.1% 1.19 21.7% 45.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.411 0.403 43.8% 3.41 15.8% 30.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 0.378 43.9% 1.01 22.1% 35.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.279 0.258 46.0% 1.17 24.0% 45.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Clay Buchholz
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $16,700
Salary Rank: 8 of 28 Salary Rank: 7 of 28 Salary Rank: 7 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 2 5.82 12.27 12.5% 7.5% 28.1% 28.1% 18.8% 90.6 6.9%
2018 10 3.99 2.68 21.9% 6.0% 40.2% 38.0% 18.1% 90.3 10.4%
L14 2 3.66 3.86 28.3% 9.4% 38.7% 45.5% 21.2% 90.1 13.8%

Buchholz has quietly pitched well this season, posting a 3.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. He’s looked good since coming back from injury, but finds himself in a difficult spot tonight. The Reds’ offense has been reeling of late, but Buchholz has to pitch in one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in all of baseball. The larger the slate, the less likely I am to take pitchers that have more downside than upside. That’s what I see with Buchholz here, even though I’ve been impressed by his play this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Buchholz in all formats.

Anthony DeSclafani
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $11,900
Salary Rank: 19 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 11 4.39 4.98 19.8% 7.1% 37.6% 44.8% 15.3% 93.1 8.0%
L14 2 4.45 3.18 19.2% 6.4% 33.3% 28.6% 28.6% 93.3 8.6%

DeSclafani hasn’t been on my radar often this season. His struggles against left-handed hitters make him viable only when he’s facing a right-handed heavy offense. He doesn’t get that tonight against the Diamondbacks, who are projected to have six lefties in their lineup. On the season, DeSclafani has allowed a .403 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate, which will be troublesome in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid DeSclafani in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks see a ballpark boost playing in Cincinnati and draw an exploitable matchup against Anthony DeSclafani. As noted above, he has allowed a .403 xwOBA, a 3.41 HR/9, and a 43% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. David Peralta is one of the top hitters of the slate, regardless of price. Jon Jay, Eduardo Escobar, Daniel Descalso, and Alex Avila are also viable at their respective positions. Paul Goldschmidt is intriguing as a part of a full stack, as the Diamondbacks might be able to knock DeSclafani around early and then get into the hittable Reds’ bullpen.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.325 0.110 37.6% 4.4% 14.1% 55.7% OF $2,500 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
2 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.378 0.216 44.4% 12.7% 27.6% 41.5% 1B $4,000 1B $4,800 1B $8,800
3 David Peralta LEFT 0.382 0.249 48.7% 7.5% 18.5% 48.9% OF $3,800 OF $5,500 RF $10,100
4 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.376 0.235 44.9% 7.6% 21.7% 40.2% OF $3,400 OF $4,800 CF $9,100
5 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.364 0.284 40.9% 7.2% 21.4% 27.4% 3B $3,800 3B/SS $4,400 3B $8,400
6 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.361 0.188 39.5% 17.7% 23.5% 29.6% 2B $2,400 2B/3B $4,100 3B $8,400
7 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.308 0.128 30.1% 8.2% 14.2% 53.4% 2B $3,300 2B/SS $4,300 SS $8,200
8 Alex Avila LEFT 0.352 0.162 54.8% 15.6% 39.7% 41.9% C $2,300 C $3,500 C $6,700
9 Clay Buchholz RIGHT 0.197 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 37.5% 20.0% P $8,300 P $8,800 P $16,700
Team Averages 0.338 0.175 40.1% 9.0% 24.2% 39.8%

Elite Plays – David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar, Daniel Descalso

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Alex Avila (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds have the tougher matchup of the two teams. Throughout his career, Clay Buchholz has allowed a higher wOBA to lefties, but that hasn’t been the case this season. In fact, in 2018, he has had some serious reverse-splits, allowing a .378 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. I’m not buying a ton of stock in the Reds’ offense right now, but Eugenio Suarez stands out as an excellent one-off target. He owns a .376 xwOBA and a .352 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.299 0.111 30.9% 5.9% 12.3% 36.7% SS $2,500 SS $3,800 SS $7,300
2 Joey Votto LEFT 0.454 0.158 38.7% 19.0% 13.5% 34.6% 1B $3,600 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
3 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.344 0.181 38.4% 7.8% 18.1% 39.6% 2B $3,200 2B $4,400 2B $8,600
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.376 0.253 48.1% 8.6% 22.9% 35.7% 3B $3,700 3B $4,600 3B $9,000
5 Mason Williams LEFT 0.299 0.111 43.3% 2.6% 20.5% 53.8% OF $2,100 OF $3,200 CF $6,700
6 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.335 0.105 39.2% 10.2% 16.2% 41.7% C $2,000 C $3,400 C $6,600
7 Preston Tucker LEFT 0.297 0.179 40.7% 5.5% 25.2% 47.1% OF $2,000 OF $3,700 LF $7,400
8 Anthony DeSclafani RIGHT 0.142 0.000 14.3% 0.0% 65.0% 50.0% P $6,500 P $6,100 P $11,900
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.249 0.064 18.9% 9.5% 23.7% 44.1% OF $2,300 OF $3,600 CF $7,700
Team Averages 0.311 0.129 34.7% 7.7% 24.2% 42.6%

Elite Plays – Eugenio Suarez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eugenio Suarez (Cash), Jose Peraza, Mason Williams

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Minnesota at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Detroit
Ervin Santana Jordan Zimmermann
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -100 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.414 0.455 38.2% 2.79 11.4% 20.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.316 34.5% 1.60 23.3% 33.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.402 0.387 31.6% 1.80 16.7% 15.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.332 0.322 35.0% 1.66 21.6% 30.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ervin Santana
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 23 of 28 Salary Rank: 19 of 28 Salary Rank: 20 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 4.60 3.28 19.3% 7.1% 41.2% 27.9% 22.3% 92.9 10.1%
2018 3 5.88 6.14 13.2% 5.9% 18.9% 35.9% 24.5% 88.8 4.6%
L14 2 6.82 6.52 8.9% 6.7% 18.9% 35.1% 27.0% 88.6 3.6%

Santana has not been sharp in his first three starts of the season, posting a 5.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 13%. He hasn’t been able to induce any ground balls and when you add a 36% hard contact rate on top of it, that’s going to cause problems. Even though a matchup against the Tigers is tempting, we need Santana to flash some form before considering him in a 14-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Santana in all formats.

Jordan Zimmermann
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,500
Salary Rank: 12 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28 Salary Rank: 12 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 29 5.22 6.08 14.5% 6.2% 33.2% 39.5% 13.4% 92.2 8.1%
2018 15 3.94 4.31 22.5% 4.9% 32.1% 34.8% 19.9% 91.2 9.7%
L14 2 5.08 6.75 18.2% 9.1% 25.0% 37.5% 12.5% 91.1 7.1%

Zimmermann has had a nice season as a whole, posting a 3.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. Unfortunately, his last few starts have looked a lot more like the 2017 version than the 2018 version. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, so he needs that high k-rate and good control to succeed. When those tail off, he tends to struggle. The Twins aren’t thought of as a potent offense, but their projected lineup for tonight’s game has a .337 xwOBA with a 38% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Zimmermann in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins draw a favorable matchup against Jordan Zimmermann and should fly under the radar tonight. While Zimmermann has managed to hold both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA, his recent form brings a number of Twins’ hitters into play. Logan Morrison and Joe Mauer are dirt cheap across the industry and they both own an xwOBA of at least .370 against right-handed pitching. Mauer is the better cash game target, while Morrison brings more home run upside to the table for tournaments. Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler are also viable depending on where they bat in the order.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.401 0.096 44.5% 11.4% 12.5% 48.7% 1B $2,200 1B $3,300 1B $6,700
2 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.343 0.235 39.0% 7.0% 17.6% 32.7% OF $3,000 OF $4,400 LF $8,000
3 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.302 0.115 25.4% 14.1% 20.7% 41.4% SS $2,500 SS $3,700 SS $7,600
4 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.305 0.232 50.0% 9.6% 39.5% 42.5% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $4,100 IF/OF $8,200
5 Max Kepler LEFT 0.330 0.172 38.7% 12.4% 14.0% 39.6% OF $2,300 OF $3,800 RF $7,300
6 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.291 0.097 31.6% 8.0% 19.7% 46.9% 2B $2,400 2B/3B $2,900 2B $5,400
7 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.373 0.208 41.2% 10.0% 20.4% 29.1% 1B $2,200 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
8 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.330 0.181 43.1% 9.0% 24.6% 42.6% C $2,100 C $3,300 C $6,700
9 Jake Cave LEFT 0.359 0.167 32.5% 3.7% 25.0% 46.1% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 CF $5,900
Team Averages 0.337 0.167 38.4% 9.5% 21.6% 41.1%

Elite Plays – Logan Morrison, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eddie Rosario (Cash), Joe Mauer, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers offer some nice salary cap relief tonight. While they may not have the upside needed to win someone a tournament (as a full stack), their lineup is loaded with nice value plays. They are playing at home and draw an exploitable matchup against Ervin Santana, who has allowed a .455 xwOBA to lefties and a .387 xwOBA to righties this season. Mike Gerber is the min-price on FanDuel ($2,000), while Nick Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario, and Niko Goodrum all boast a .180+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mike Gerber LEFT 0.268 0.056 16.7% 10.0% 30.0% 25.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
2 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.264 0.099 25.7% 3.4% 11.3% 45.7% SS $2,300 SS $3,400 SS $6,400
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.368 0.183 47.4% 5.6% 24.9% 33.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
4 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.291 0.181 33.7% 11.0% 25.2% 38.0% 3B $3,100 3B $3,800 3B $7,500
5 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.334 0.075 39.7% 7.2% 9.7% 38.0% C $2,100 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
6 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.309 0.212 37.1% 7.6% 30.9% 39.1% 2B $2,300 2B/OF $3,400 1B $6,900
7 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.259 0.167 30.3% 4.0% 30.0% 45.5% OF $2,200 1B $3,400 LF $6,800
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.271 0.085 35.9% 5.8% 22.8% 39.1% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $5,100
9 Victor Reyes RIGHT 0.246 0.039 33.8% 1.9% 21.2% 51.9% OF $2,100 OF $3,100 LF $5,800
Team Averages 0.290 0.122 33.4% 6.3% 22.9% 39.6%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos, Mike Gerber (FD)

Secondary Plays – Mike Gerber (DK), Jose Iglesias, Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Interview after $100,000 Win

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