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MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-17 19:50:59

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh
cubsmlb Cole Hamels pittsburghmlb Trevor Williams
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-125 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.320 0.324 33.3% 0.46 19.1% 55.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.343 28.1% 1.05 11.2% 39.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.332 0.352 46.9% 1.76 24.2% 42.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.332 32.3% 0.86 20.5% 40.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Cole Hamels
cole-hamels-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $17,100
Salary Rank: 5 of 28 Salary Rank: 6 of 28 Salary Rank: 6 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 24 4.90 4.20 17.1% 8.6% 47.5% 36.0% 13.7% 92.0 9.7%
2018 23 3.96 4.22 23.5% 8.1% 44.4% 44.7% 16.4% 91.7 12.3%
L14 2 3.46 1.38 22.5% 4.1% 48.6% 48.6% 17.1% 93.0 11.8%

Hamels has pitched well since joining the Cubs. Perhaps a move to the National League is exactly what he needed to kickstart his career. With an above-average strikeout rate and an average ground ball rate, he still provides upside as a pitcher in DFS. Now that he gets to face the opposing pitcher and play in better ballparks, he’ll become a more frequent visitor to my lineups. He draws a decent matchup against the Pirates, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .314 with a strikeout rate of 20% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: At this price point, Hamels is a viable SP2 in all formats.

Trevor Williams
trevor-williams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,100
Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.63 4.07 18.2% 8.1% 48.0% 28.9% 21.8% 92.1 8.4%
2018 23 4.95 3.66 16.0% 8.0% 40.1% 30.2% 20.9% 90.4 7.1%
L14 2 5.32 1.50 10.2% 2.0% 32.6% 23.3% 16.3% 90.7 5.2%

Williams may have a low ERA, but his advanced statistics suggest that he’s not a good pitcher. In 23 starts, he owns a 4.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He has good control and an ability to limit hard contact, but such a low k-rate gives him a low floor and a low ceiling. He draws a difficult matchup against the Cubs, whose projected lineup has six hitters with at least a .340 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Williams in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but a matchup against Trevor Williams is always enticing. He’s a fly-ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate. On the season, he has allowed a .343 xwOBA to lefties and a .332 xwOBA to righties. There are better spots overall, but two batters in particular are on my radar for tournaments — Anthony Rizzo and David Bote both own a .400+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.342 0.277 37.7% 3.1% 27.0% 45.7% 2B $4,000 2B/SS $5,000 2B $9,500
2 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.346 0.138 30.7% 9.2% 11.1% 45.3% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
3 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.374 0.188 36.6% 13.8% 13.1% 44.3% 2B $3,100 2B/OF $4,800 IF/OF $9,100
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.402 0.212 35.2% 11.5% 9.7% 37.7% 1B $4,000 1B $4,800 1B $8,700
5 David Bote RIGHT 0.414 0.189 39.0% 11.5% 19.7% 58.5% 3B $3,000 3B $3,800 3B $7,700
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.379 0.256 41.7% 15.0% 25.4% 40.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,400
7 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.306 0.147 30.4% 7.3% 20.9% 50.7% C $2,800 C $3,600 IF/OF $7,300
8 Cole Hamels LEFT 0.049 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 50.0% P $8,900 P $8,700 P $17,100
9 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.287 0.083 30.6% 8.8% 22.5% 43.5% SS $2,700 SS $3,400 SS $6,900
Team Averages 0.322 0.166 31.3% 8.9% 21.0% 46.2%

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, David Bote

Secondary Plays – Javier Baez (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

Much to my dismay, the Pirates couldn’t get anything going last night against Jon Lester. He’s been a thorn in my side all season. Tonight they draw a slightly more difficult matchup against Cole Hamels. I’m not overly excited about using the Pirates in this spot, but a case can be made for the right-handed hitters. Hamels has allowed a .352 xwOBA and a 47% hard contact rate to batters from the right side of the plate this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.290 0.090 22.5% 4.2% 19.8% 42.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 LF $7,700
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.370 0.192 37.5% 7.0% 21.9% 53.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 CF $8,200
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.284 0.181 35.6% 10.1% 26.1% 38.0% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.392 0.141 42.9% 9.8% 21.4% 53.2% 3B $2,400 1B/3B $4,100 3B $8,200
5 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.395 0.164 35.7% 17.6% 19.1% 31.0% C $2,800 C $4,300 C $8,000
6 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.328 0.180 30.3% 12.1% 22.4% 42.1% 1B $2,900 1B $4,000 1B $7,700
7 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.324 0.160 36.4% 6.8% 17.0% 36.4% 2B $2,700 2B $3,700 2B $7,600
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.299 0.078 31.0% 7.0% 11.3% 39.7% SS $2,100 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
9 Trevor Williams RIGHT 0.145 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 100.0% P $6,300 P $6,000 P $12,100
Team Averages 0.314 0.132 30.2% 8.3% 19.9% 48.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, David Freese, Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Miami Washington
miamimlb Dan Straily washingtonmlb Max Scherzer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-400 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.355 0.371 44.8% 1.43 20.7% 33.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.256 0.251 27.8% 0.83 32.0% 37.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.370 44.5% 1.71 19.4% 34.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.234 0.274 34.7% 0.99 37.4% 35.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dan Straily
dan-straily-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 20 of 28 Salary Rank: 23 of 28 Salary Rank: 23 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 4.43 4.26 22.1% 7.8% 34.2% 32.6% 19.1% 90.3 12.2%
2018 19 4.97 4.42 20.1% 11.8% 33.8% 44.7% 14.2% 90.4 10.2%
L14 2 5.56 4.50 27.9% 20.9% 25.0% 45.0% 15.0% 90.6 10.6%

Straily doesn’t have the best numbers for a pitcher, but much like James Shields, he tends to get the job done because he eats up a lot of innings and racks up strikeouts along the way. I play him more than most, but will not be looking his way tonight against the Nationals, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .351 with a strikeout rate of only 17% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Straily in both cash games and tournaments.

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,200 Salary: $12,600 Salary: $24,700
Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 1 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 2.98 2.51 34.4% 7.1% 36.5% 26.5% 19.5% 94.1 15.5%
2018 25 2.70 2.19 34.6% 6.1% 36.3% 30.9% 24.1% 94.4 16.5%
L14 2 2.58 0.64 33.3% 3.9% 37.5% 28.1% 21.9% 95.4 16.0%

At this point, we all know that Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in baseball. The only question when he takes the mound is whether or not he’s worth the price tag given his matchup and the slate that he is pitching in. This feels like a night to force Scherzer into your lineups and then build from there. Not only does he own a 35% strikeout rate and a 25% soft contact rate, but he is facing one of the worst offenses in baseball. There are strikeouts to be had in this lineup and it’s not like they draw many walks. This could realistically be a spot for Scherzer to throw a complete game shutout.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is the top pitcher of the slate and an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

If you can make a case for the Marlins tonight, by all means, stack them on the road against one of the best pitchers in baseball. I’ll be with the non-crazies on #TeamScherzer.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rafael Ortega LEFT 0.314 0.038 33.3% 10.3% 6.9% 56.5% OF $2,500 OF $2,900 LF $5,700
2 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.375 0.225 39.8% 5.9% 17.3% 42.0% C $2,700 C $3,900 C $7,200
3 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.345 0.114 37.9% 6.7% 17.0% 54.0% OF $2,300 3B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,800
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.323 0.126 36.8% 6.0% 19.4% 49.3% 2B $2,700 2B $3,200 2B $6,300
5 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.328 0.153 36.5% 6.3% 24.0% 40.2% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,700
6 Austin Dean RIGHT 0.404 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,900 LF $5,600
7 JT Riddle LEFT 0.293 0.147 31.5% 5.7% 21.7% 49.6% SS $2,000 SS $2,700 SS $5,400
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.166 0.020 14.6% 0.0% 19.6% 60.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 CF $5,700
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.214 0.059 42.9% 19.0% 47.6% 50.0% P $6,700 P $5,900 P $12,000
Team Averages 0.307 0.098 35.9% 6.7% 19.3% 50.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals are -400 favorites tonight. In all my years of writing the Grind Down, I honestly can’t remember any team cracking the -400 mark. I know that baseball is random, but I still think they are a solid bet on the money line. They draw an exploitable matchup against Dan Straily, who has allowed a .370+ xwOBA and a 44%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher that has had home run issues throughout his career. Meanwhile, six of the first seven hitters in the Nationals’ lineup has an xwOBA of at least .365 against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.369 0.096 38.9% 8.9% 16.3% 44.1% OF $2,700 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.319 0.146 31.6% 7.9% 20.2% 52.7% SS $3,700 SS $4,800 IF/OF $8,700
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.401 0.294 43.0% 17.8% 25.3% 35.4% OF $4,500 OF $5,400 RF $10,300
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.386 0.194 36.9% 8.3% 14.0% 36.2% 3B $3,800 3B $4,300 3B $8,300
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.382 0.226 34.2% 19.0% 16.9% 51.0% OF $4,000 OF $4,900 LF $9,100
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.382 0.180 41.5% 6.0% 21.1% 47.9% 1B $3,400 1B $4,500 1B $9,200
7 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.399 0.172 27.4% 6.9% 7.6% 33.1% 2B $3,300 1B/2B $4,300 2B $8,000
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.287 0.118 33.3% 8.9% 12.6% 37.5% C $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,700
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.237 0.026 17.1% 0.0% 15.9% 71.9% P $12,200 P $12,600 P $24,700
Team Averages 0.351 0.161 33.8% 9.3% 16.7% 45.5%

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Toronto NY Yankees
torontomlb Marcus Stroman nyyankeesmlb Lance Lynn
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-170 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.312 0.351 35.8% 0.55 15.9% 63.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.371 0.369 39.2% 1.20 15.3% 55.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.323 0.307 31.0% 0.94 19.8% 62.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 0.297 32.8% 0.73 28.3% 45.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,300
Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 24 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 3.85 3.09 19.7% 7.4% 62.1% 31.4% 20.4% 93.3 10.0%
2018 17 3.94 5.03 17.8% 8.2% 63.4% 33.6% 21.8% 92.4 9.2%
L14 2 3.23 0.75 13.3% 8.9% 82.4% 17.1% 31.4% 92.4 7.1%

Stroman is one of those pitchers that is easy to talk yourself into playing or fading. I see him more as a matchup-dependent type of play than someone that I can trust in every start. What he lacks in strikeouts (17%), he makes up for with ground balls (63%). There are very few pitchers in baseball that have good PvB numbers against the Yankees, but Stroman is one of them. He’s held their current roster to a .286 wOBA in 122 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman is cheap and has a nice track record against New York, but why take the risk in a 14-game slate?

Lance Lynn
lance-lynn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 11 of 28 Salary Rank: 10 of 28 Salary Rank: 11 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 4.85 3.43 19.7% 10.1% 44.0% 29.2% 21.1% 91.8 9.0%
2018 22 4.48 4.46 22.9% 12.4% 50.1% 35.7% 20.1% 93.2 10.3%
L14 2 2.73 0.73 36.2% 8.5% 46.2% 15.4% 26.9% 93.3 12.1%

Lynn has looked great in his last two starts, allowing a single run while striking out 17 batters. Do we buy into the recent form or do we trust the numbers that we’ve seen from him over the last couple of seasons? I tend to side with the bigger sample, but I do like this matchup for Lynn. He will likely be facing six right-handed hitters against the Blue Jays, whose projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 23% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Given the form, matchup, and price point, Lynn is viable as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays see a ballpark upgrade playing in Yankee Stadium and draw an exploitable matchup against Lance Lynn. Even though he does make sense as an SP2, there are some excellent plays from Toronto thanks to the short porch in right field. On the season, Lynn has allowed a .369 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Curtis Granderson is very familiar with this ballpark and should be batting leadoff, while both Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales boast a .410+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.350 0.193 38.8% 12.2% 27.0% 32.4% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 RF $8,500
2 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.313 0.117 29.7% 5.9% 21.0% 55.2% 2B $2,900 2B $3,700 2B $7,400
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.413 0.253 38.3% 16.3% 24.7% 30.9% 1B $3,500 1B $4,200 1B $8,400
4 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.344 0.252 35.3% 5.4% 24.1% 38.6% OF $2,900 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.435 0.190 46.0% 13.2% 19.8% 44.2% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 1B $6,700
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.333 0.157 30.9% 15.8% 23.5% 47.8% 3B $2,600 C $3,800 C $7,200
7 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.341 0.170 34.1% 4.2% 20.1% 36.6% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 CF $7,300
8 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.354 0.190 33.8% 3.4% 10.7% 42.9% SS $2,900 SS $4,000 SS $7,500
9 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.270 0.071 30.1% 10.4% 31.3% 50.6% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,900
Team Averages 0.350 0.177 35.2% 9.6% 22.5% 42.1%

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson (GPP), Justin Smoak (GPP), Kendrys Morales (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson (Cash), Justin Smoak (Cash), Kendrys Morales (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees are a boom or bust offense tonight, as they square off against a pitcher that has a 63% ground ball rate. If those ground balls go for hits, they could easily end up being one of the highest scoring teams of the slate. If not, they could easily underperform. In situations with a wide range of potential outcomes, I avoid them in cash games and play them in tournaments. If you want to play into the ground ball narrative, Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird, and Gleyber Torres all have high fly-ball rates against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.298 0.142 26.4% 11.6% 15.3% 50.8% OF $3,100 OF $4,400 LF $8,200
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.326 0.216 36.6% 7.8% 31.2% 48.9% OF $4,600 OF $5,300 RF $9,900
3 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.375 0.196 38.0% 15.4% 18.8% 43.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.347 0.222 37.6% 9.3% 12.4% 35.1% SS $3,900 SS $4,700 SS $9,200
5 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.357 0.219 37.7% 3.8% 17.3% 47.5% 3B $3,900 3B $5,000 3B $9,700
6 Greg Bird LEFT 0.321 0.192 41.9% 9.0% 25.4% 32.0% 1B $2,800 1B $3,600 1B $7,300
7 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.363 0.229 37.3% 7.9% 25.3% 31.5% 2B $3,400 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
8 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.354 0.113 39.1% 10.3% 21.8% 38.3% 2B $2,400 1B/2B $3,500 2B $6,400
9 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.333 0.191 38.2% 7.5% 21.9% 46.0% C $2,500 C $3,600 C $7,300
Team Averages 0.342 0.191 37.0% 9.2% 21.0% 41.5%

Elite Plays – Didi Gregorius (GPP), Greg Bird (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius (Cash), Greg Bird (Cash), Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Baltimore Cleveland
baltimoremlb David Hess clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-380 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.371 0.359 31.3% 2.43 15.2% 33.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.303 0.287 37.0% 1.10 29.0% 45.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.362 0.362 31.7% 1.84 12.8% 31.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.307 40.5% 1.01 27.2% 42.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

David Hess
david-hess-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,100 Salary: $8,400
Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 26 of 28 Salary Rank: 26 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 11 5.57 6.25 14.0% 9.1% 32.5% 31.5% 20.5% 92.1 8.4%
L14 2 5.58 8.00 16.7% 9.5% 23.3% 33.3% 20.0% 91.9 8.1%

Hess is one of the most hittable pitcher to take the mound tonight. To make matters worse, he is facing one of the best offenses in baseball on the road in a ballpark that favors left-handed power. The projected lineup for the Indians has an average xwOBA of .380 with a 44% hard contact rate and a strikeout rate of only 16%.

Quick Breakdown: If you like losing in DFS, feel free to play Hess. Hey, that rhymes.

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,000 Salary: $11,200 Salary: $21,600
Salary Rank: 2 of 28 Salary Rank: 2 of 28 Salary Rank: 2 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 3.35 3.29 28.3% 5.8% 45.2% 29.3% 19.4% 94.3 13.4%
2018 22 3.13 3.50 28.1% 4.9% 44.3% 38.8% 14.6% 93.4 14.3%
L14 2 2.38 2.03 31.5% 1.9% 51.4% 37.1% 14.3% 92.9 16.0%

Carrasco has some ridiculous home/road splits (and they’ve been that way for years), but we can throw them out the window tonight thanks to a matchup against the Orioles. After a slow start to the year, he has found that elite form over the last couple of months. In 22 starts overall, he owns a 3.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 5%. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of only 7% against right-handed pitching. I’m not sure the price savings is enough for me to play him over Max Scherzer, but I don’t mind having equal exposure to both if you are building multiple lineups.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but they have one of the worst matchups of the slate. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Carlos Carrasco has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season. I’ve been avoiding the Orioles against mediocre pitchers, so I will certainly be avoiding them against Carrasco.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.274 0.088 29.4% 7.5% 27.2% 62.8% 2B $2,900 2B $3,800 2B $7,200
2 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.340 0.171 37.7% 9.0% 21.8% 42.3% 3B $2,500 3B $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
3 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.358 0.197 41.9% 6.9% 25.1% 37.7% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 DH $8,400
4 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.379 0.185 37.6% 8.3% 23.8% 48.6% OF $2,700 1B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,400
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.311 0.145 37.3% 8.6% 36.2% 40.3% 1B $2,200 1B $3,200 IF/OF $6,600
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.296 0.137 29.5% 6.3% 26.0% 47.4% SS $3,100 3B/SS $3,500 SS $6,500
7 Cedric Mullins LEFT 0.326 0.267 28.6% 11.8% 5.9% 42.9% OF $2,600 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
8 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.333 0.209 31.9% 8.4% 14.7% 34.7% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 RF $6,700
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.276 0.158 28.7% 3.9% 26.8% 43.5% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,900
Team Averages 0.321 0.173 33.6% 7.9% 23.1% 44.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians have the highest implied run total on the board tonight, as they square off against David Hess. He is a low-strikeout pitcher with a high fly-ball rate. On the season, he has allowed a .355+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. It’s hard to see the Indians failing tonight and they stand out as one of the top stacks. Each of the first five batters in their projected lineup owns a .380+ xwOBA and a 39%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season — Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Yandy Diaz, and Yonder Alonso.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.406 0.281 43.1% 10.1% 16.6% 33.8% SS $4,500 SS $5,800 SS $10,100
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.404 0.188 44.3% 8.7% 8.1% 43.7% OF $4,300 OF $5,500 LF $10,200
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.423 0.379 39.8% 18.1% 11.6% 29.4% 3B $5,000 3B $6,000 IF/OF $11,300
4 Yandy Diaz RIGHT 0.554 0.077 66.7% 0.0% 7.7% 33.3% 3B $2,300 3B $3,900 3B $7,300
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.383 0.209 38.9% 9.1% 19.9% 37.3% 1B $3,700 1B $4,500 1B $9,300
6 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.334 0.110 38.9% 5.4% 12.6% 43.3% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 LF $8,200
7 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.349 0.131 37.3% 10.4% 17.9% 35.3% 2B $3,500 2B $4,200 2B $8,300
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.297 0.153 42.1% 4.7% 28.3% 34.9% C $2,700 C $3,800 C $7,700
9 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.271 0.079 40.9% 5.3% 18.4% 45.4% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 CF $7,700
Team Averages 0.380 0.179 43.6% 8.0% 15.7% 37.4%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Yonder Alonso, Yandy Diaz

Secondary Plays – Melky Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes

Stackability – GREEN

San Francisco at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

San Francisco Cincinnati
sanfranciscomlb Casey Kelly cincinnatimlb Anthony DeSclafani
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-120 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.266 0.377 66.7% 0.00 22.2% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.375 0.372 42.6% 3.00 19.4% 30.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.163 0.208 23.1% 0.00 6.7% 69.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.276 0.261 44.8% 1.07 23.5% 46.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Casey Kelly
casey-kelly-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 27 of 28 Salary Rank: 27 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 0 4.31 1.42 12.5% 8.3% 63.2% 36.8% 21.1% 92.4 11.5%
L14 0 4.31 1.42 12.5% 8.3% 63.2% 36.8% 21.1% 92.4 11.5%

Kelly is a 28-year old righty that will be making his tenth career major league start tonight against the Reds. His numbers at the Triple-A level this season have been mediocre — 4.92 FIP with a strikeout rate of only 18% and a WHIP of 1.42. Even though the Reds have been a disappointment this season, they are still a very capable offense at home. This is one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in baseball and Kelly comes into the game as an underdog with the total set at 9.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than upside here.

Anthony DeSclafani
anthony-desclafani-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,900
Salary Rank: 20 of 28 Salary Rank: 17 of 28 Salary Rank: 16 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 12 4.13 4.46 21.5% 6.6% 38.0% 43.7% 15.7% 93.2 8.3%
L14 2 3.69 0.64 22.0% 2.0% 35.1% 23.7% 23.7% 93.6 7.7%

DeSclafani has been decent this season. In 12 starts, he has a 4.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 7%. He’s basically viable anytime he faces a right-handed heavy offense. He allows way too many home runs to lefties. It looks like the Giants have four lefties in their projected lineup, but only two of them have home run power that we should be concerned with. If you are looking for a cheap SP2 on DraftKings, you can certainly do a lot worse than DeSclafani.

Quick Breakdown: DeSclafani is an intriguing SP2 tonight in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

If you read the blurb on Anthony DeSclafani, then you already know where we are headed. On the season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .261 xwOBA on a 46% ground ball rate. His struggles have come against lefties, as he has allowed a .372 xwOBA with a 43% hard contact rate and a 3.00 HR/9. This brings two batters into play from San Francisco and they share the same first name. Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford both bat from the left side and both hit the ball hard against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.355 0.154 44.8% 12.9% 22.5% 37.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 RF $8,400
2 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.400 0.245 47.1% 12.4% 20.9% 18.4% 1B $2,700 1B $4,200 IF/OF $8,400
3 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.338 0.084 34.1% 7.6% 12.4% 48.8% C $2,300 C $4,100 C $8,000
4 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.305 0.151 41.5% 3.5% 23.9% 40.9% 3B $2,700 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.328 0.142 37.3% 10.2% 20.7% 42.7% SS $2,500 SS $4,100 SS $8,200
6 Gorkys Hernandez RIGHT 0.326 0.163 40.3% 6.3% 25.7% 50.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,900 CF $7,300
7 Joe Panik LEFT 0.374 0.128 33.1% 7.7% 7.7% 40.3% 2B $2,200 2B $3,700 2B $7,300
8 Steven Duggar LEFT 0.236 0.116 32.7% 6.8% 27.0% 44.9% OF $2,500 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
9 Casey Kelly RIGHT 0.075 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $5,500 P $4,000 P $8,000
Team Averages 0.304 0.131 34.5% 7.5% 17.9% 47.0%

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt (GPP), Brandon Crawford (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt (Cash), Brandon Crawford (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati

The Reds are the preferred offense to target in this game. They are facing a pitcher that has been mediocre at best in the minors. Casey Kelly has a low strikeout rate and if we look at his career splits, he has struggled with both left and right-handed hitters. With so many great offenses available in this slate, the Reds should fly under the radar, even though they are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, Preston Tucker, and Tucker Barnhart are all viable tournament plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.298 0.114 31.5% 5.8% 11.9% 36.9% SS $2,600 SS $3,900 SS $7,500
2 Joey Votto LEFT 0.450 0.154 39.0% 19.4% 13.6% 33.8% 1B $3,300 1B $4,200 1B $8,300
3 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.371 0.237 48.9% 8.4% 23.3% 37.2% 3B $3,400 3B $4,200 3B $8,300
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.344 0.180 38.7% 7.4% 18.3% 39.8% 2B $3,000 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
5 Preston Tucker LEFT 0.312 0.192 42.9% 7.2% 25.4% 46.7% OF $2,300 OF $3,700 LF $7,500
6 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.338 0.128 40.5% 10.3% 15.6% 40.9% C $2,500 C $3,700 C $7,600
7 Mason Williams LEFT 0.272 0.080 42.5% 1.9% 22.6% 55.6% OF $2,000 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
8 Anthony DeSclafani RIGHT 0.180 0.000 11.1% 0.0% 60.9% 50.0% P $6,600 P $7,000 P $13,900
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.252 0.066 19.1% 9.5% 23.5% 43.6% OF $2,300 OF $3,700 CF $7,300
Team Averages 0.313 0.128 34.9% 7.8% 23.9% 42.7%

Elite Plays – Joey Votto (GPP), Scooter Gennett (GPP), Preston Tucker (GPP), Tucker Barnhart (DK)

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto (Cash), Scooter Gennett (Cash), Preston Tucker (Cash), Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious