MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 26th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Baltimore NY Yankees
baltimoremlb Yovani Gallardo nyyankeesmlb Luis Cessa
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY -110 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.339 15 24.1% 15.7% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.283 2 31.3% 14.3%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.319 11 28.2% 15.0% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.323 3 31.1% 16.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yovani Gallardo
yovani-gallardo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,100
FPPG: 19.6 FPPG: 8.6
Pitcher Rating: 34.5 Pitcher Rank: 27
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 6 98.5 5.23 4.11 16.6% 11.9% 7.1% 49.5% 33.3% 25.2%
2016 17 93.4 5.54 5.08 15.5% 12.2% 6.4% 42.8% 38.6% 27.7%
2015 33 97.8 4.59 3.42 15.3% 8.6% 6.5% 49.3% 28.7% 25.5%

Quick Note: You can now jump to the different pages of the Grind Down by clicking the links at the top or bottom of the page.

Gallardo is a pitcher that we have been targeting hitters against all season. In 17 starts, he has a 5.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.5% and a walk rate of 12.2%. He has a high fly-ball rate, which has led to a high wOBA allowed to both left and right-handed hitters. His matchup against the Yankees doesn’t look tough on paper, but when you pencil Gary Sanchez in for at least two runs, it’s going to be difficult for Gallardo to hit value. He is an easy fade in all league formats against all of these left-handed hitters with that short porch in right.

Luis Cessa
luis-cessa-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,900
FPPG: 13.9 FPPG: 6.7
Pitcher Rating: 53.0 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 1 85.0 3.30 4.09 20.9% 4.7% 9.2% 54.8% 22.6% 22.6%
2016 1 85.0 4.53 4.01 15.7% 6.9% 10.0% 42.7% 37.3% 31.2%

Cessa is making his second start his tenth career major league appearance. He looked good in his first start, shutting out the Angels in six innings of work and striking out six batters. He showed nice upside in the minors this season, posting a 3.03 ERA with a strikeout rate of 22.3%. Tonight’s matchup against the Orioles is of the boom or bust natures. While they have the second highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, they also have one of the highest strikeout rates. While I don’t absolutely hate the play, there are a few pitchers that offer better value tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

This game is basically set as a pick ‘em, which means we can split the over/under in half to get each team’s projected run total. Their matchup against Luis Cessa is a difficult one to predict, because he is still an unknown quantity at the major league level. All we know is that the Orioles are ranked first in team ISO against right-handed pitching and that they are facing him in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.347 0.210 0.301 OF $3,300 OF $4,400
2 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.383 0.123 0.331 OF $3,200 OF $3,600
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.382 0.246 0.314 3B $3,900 3B/SS $4,800
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.348 0.227 0.393 OF $3,500 OF $5,000
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.384 0.312 0.493 1B $3,500 1B $4,800
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.359 0.226 0.342 2B $3,100 2B $4,400
7 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.348 0.254 0.403 3B $3,300 1B $4,000
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.313 0.156 0.337 C $2,400 C $4,200
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.280 0.121 0.316 SS $2,200 SS $3,100
Team Averages 0.349 0.208 0.359

Elite Plays – Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Hyun-Soo Kim, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees have an outside chance at making the postseason, even though they were major sellers at the trade deadline. A big series against the Orioles would go a long way in helping their chances. They draw one of my favorite matchups on the board, as they get to face Yovani Gallardo at home. Gallardo has not fared well against hitters from either side of the plate and he walks nearly as many batters as he strikes out.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.325 0.138 0.181 OF $3,200 OF $4,000
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.307 0.108 0.232 OF $3,300 OF $3,800
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.567 0.473 0.621 C $3,400 C $4,500
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.311 0.150 0.354 SS $2,900 SS $3,600
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.297 0.140 0.372 2B $2,800 2B $3,600
6 Brian McCann LEFT 0.326 0.195 0.296 C $2,800 C $3,600
7 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.372 0.269 0.335 OF $3,000 OF $3,900
8 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.198 0.158 0.164 1B $2,300 OF $2,600
9 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.288 0.126 0.355 OF $2,400 OF $3,400
Team Averages 0.332 0.195 0.323

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Starlin Castro, Brian McCann

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Colorado Washington
coloradomlb Jeff Hoffman washingtonmlb Gio Gonzalez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -220 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.495 0 33.3% 9.1% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.278 2 29.6% 17.7%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.321 1 37.5% 11.1% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.323 22 31.8% 23.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Hoffman
jeff-hoffman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,300
FPPG: 0.0 FPPG: -3.8
Pitcher Rating: 24.6 Pitcher Rank: 30
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 1 77.0 5.21 13.50 10.0% 5.0% 5.2% 47.1% 35.3% 35.3%
2016 1 77.0 5.21 13.50 10.0% 5.0% 5.2% 47.1% 35.3% 35.3%

Hoffman is making his second career major league start tonight. It’s hard to glean anything from a single start, so let’s take a quick look at his minor league numbers. In 22 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 4.02 ERA with a strikeout rate of 24.2%. When we have these young pitchers making their first few starts, I always like to lean on Vegas. The line suggests a rough outing from Hoffman, as he is a large underdog in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs.

Gio Gonzalez
gio-gonzalez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $6,100
FPPG: 29.2 FPPG: 14.9
Pitcher Rating: 78.0 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 6 95.5 4.31 3.55 19.7% 6.6% 8.9% 40.6% 38.6% 36.6%
2016 25 99.0 4.09 4.30 22.3% 8.1% 9.7% 45.5% 32.8% 34.5%
2015 31 95.1 3.77 3.79 22.3% 9.1% 9.8% 53.8% 26.6% 28.7%

Gonzalez is one of the largest favorites on the board tonight, which gives him some appeal in cash games. He hasn’t been in the best of form this season, but he still has a strikeout rate of 22.3% overall. He draws a favorable matchup against the Rockies, who have the ninth highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Colorado has also struggled on the road this season, ranking in the bottom ten in team wOBA. Gonzalez is a safe play in cash games, especially given the suppressed price point.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies come into tonight’s game with one of the lowest implied team totals in the slate. They are facing a competent pitcher in a tough ballpark for offensive production. The fact that three of their best four hitters are left-handed doesn’t help, as Gio Gonzalez has held lefties to a .278 wOBA in the last two seasons. Nolan Arenado is an intriguing one-off target, but the rest of the Rockies can be avoided.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.341 0.122 0.596 OF $3,600 OF $5,100
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.373 0.113 0.555 2B $3,400 2B $4,900
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.346 0.220 0.333 3B $3,900 3B $4,900
4 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.282 0.175 0.248 OF $3,400 OF $3,100
5 David Dahl LEFT 0.364 0.087 0.352 OF $3,300 OF $4,000
6 Ryan Raburn RIGHT 0.393 0.252 0.286 OF $2,800 OF $2,700
7 Nick Hundley RIGHT 0.336 0.161 0.308 C $2,700 C $2,700
8 Cristhian Adames SWITCH 0.263 0.077 0.224 SS $2,400 2B/SS $2,200
9 Jeff Hoffman RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.000 P $5,500 P $4,300
Team Averages 0.300 0.134 0.322

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals have the second highest run projection in the slate. They have been one of the best offenses in baseball over the last month of play, largely in part thanks to the stellar play of Trea Turner. We don’t know a lot about Hoffman, but he hasn’t shown great command thus far and the Nationals hit right-handed pitching well as a team. You can load up on Nationals’ hitters in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.376 0.233 0.415 SS $4,200 2B/OF $4,900
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.294 0.135 0.354 OF $3,500 OF $3,600
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.378 0.227 0.407 2B $4,200 1B/2B $5,300
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.431 0.292 0.475 OF $3,900 OF $5,300
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.331 0.158 0.421 3B $3,500 3B $4,500
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.309 0.146 0.189 C $3,200 C $3,600
7 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.291 0.163 0.414 1B $2,900 1B $3,500
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.303 0.162 0.249 SS $3,300 SS $3,400
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.153 0.029 0.251 P $8,100 P $6,100
Team Averages 0.318 0.172 0.353

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Minnesota Toronto
minnesotamlb Pat Dean torontomlb Francisco Liriano
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -230 10.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.278 0 21.9% 14.6% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.296 7 22.9% 24.4%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.387 7 37.2% 19.9% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.317 29 30.8% 24.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Pat Dean
patrick-dean-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,500
FPPG: 16.1 FPPG: 7.6
Pitcher Rating: 54.2 Pitcher Rank: 17
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 0 0.0 1.56 5.14 34.6% 0.0% 14.9% 58.8% 35.3% 47.1%
2016 6 92.8 4.34 5.48 18.8% 7.6% 6.5% 45.5% 35.9% 33.8%

Dean is making his first start in over a month, after making his recent appearances out of the bullpen. On the season, he has a 5.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.8%. He likely won’t pitch deep into tonight’s game, even if he is pitching well. Odds are that he isn’t going to fare well anyway though, as the Blue Jays are one of the most difficult matchups on the schedule. On the season, Toronto is ranked seventh in team wOBA and ninth in team ISO against left-handed pitching.

Francisco Liriano
francisco-liriano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,900
FPPG: 24.4 FPPG: 11.6
Pitcher Rating: 72.5 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 89.0 4.49 6.23 21.3% 10.7% 11.2% 48.7% 31.6% 38.8%
2016 24 95.1 4.63 5.21 22.0% 12.5% 10.9% 51.3% 30.4% 35.1%
2015 31 96.2 3.38 3.38 26.5% 9.1% 14.3% 51.2% 26.3% 24.3%

Liriano seems to get off to a good start in each outing, only to falter and allow a bunch of runs. In 24 starts this season, he has a 4.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 12.5%. I’m not a fan of his matchup tonight against the Twins, who have the fifth highest wOBA of any team in the last month of play. The Twins are also ranked fifth in team ISO against southpaws. I know the Blue Jays are large favorites here, but if you are looking for a cheap SP2, I’d much rather target Gio Gonzalez or David Phelps.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins have been an offensive juggernaut recently. They come into tonight’s game with a slightly below-average run projection, but I’m not going to let that take me off of their right-handed hitters. The Twins see a ballpark boost playing in the Rogers Centre and they get to face a struggling Francisco Liriano. On the season, he has allowed a .358 wOBA and 17 home runs to batters from the right side of the plate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.369 0.268 0.482 2B $4,300 2B $5,300
2 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.362 0.155 0.283 OF $3,300 OF $3,700
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.382 0.237 0.197 OF $3,200 3B/OF $3,600
4 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.336 0.186 0.283 3B $2,800 3B $3,300
5 Jorge Polanco RIGHT 0.370 0.154 0.289 3B $2,900 3B/SS $3,000
6 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.322 0.195 0.358 SS $2,900 SS $3,000
7 Max Kepler LEFT 0.278 0.131 0.240 OF $3,200 OF $3,600
8 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.303 0.118 0.275 C $2,100 C $3,000
9 Danny Santana SWITCH 0.245 0.075 0.083 OF $2,500 OF $2,900
Team Averages 0.330 0.169 0.277

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Trevor Plouffe

Secondary Plays – Robbie Grossman, Jorge Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays were a letdown last night against Jered Weaver, but all that is going to do is lower their ownership tonight. They come into the game with the highest run projection in the slate, as they face left-handed Pat Dean at home. With Jose Bautista back in the lineup, this Blue Jays’ offense should be able to mash left-handed pitching the rest of the way. The sample size is small, but Dean has allowed a .387 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.347 0.218 OF $3,600 OF $4,000
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.424 0.286 0.312 3B $4,200 3B $5,000
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.375 0.259 0.438 1B $4,300 1B $5,000
4 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.362 0.184 0.578 C $3,400 C $4,800
5 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.369 0.191 0.468 SS $3,000 SS $3,700
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.312 0.109 0.310 OF $2,700 OF $3,500
7 Melvin Upton RIGHT 0.369 0.241 0.356 OF $3,400 OF $4,600
8 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.410 0.308 0.243 OF $3,400 OF $3,900
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.329 0.121 0.396 2B $2,600 2B/3B $2,600
Team Averages 0.366 0.213 0.388

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Melvin Upton

Stackability – GREEN

LA Angels at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

LA Angels Detroit
laangelsmlb Ricky Nolasco detroitmlb Justin Verlander
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -200 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.315 9 32.0% 16.2% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.276 19 24.2% 24.6%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.367 17 34.9% 20.0% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.277 16 27.5% 23.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ricky Nolasco
ricky-nolasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,800
FPPG: 22.7 FPPG: 11.1
Pitcher Rating: 49.0 Pitcher Rank: 20
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 102.8 4.14 4.55 18.5% 3.9% 8.8% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0%
2016 25 98.0 4.40 5.22 17.6% 5.2% 8.9% 43.1% 39.3% 35.4%
2015 8 83.1 4.10 6.75 20.2% 8.1% 9.3% 40.7% 31.7% 26.0%

Nolasco’s change of scenery (traded to the Angels) hasn’t really helped. His last five starts look eerily similar to his first 20 this season. He comes into tonight’s game as a huge underdog against the Tigers. Typically, we can target high-strikeout right-handed pitchers against Detroit, but there are two problems with that strategy tonight. The first, and most important is that Nolasco is not a high-strikeout pitcher. The second is that he is a reverse-splits pitcher, which actually hurts his appeal against a right-handed heavy lineup.

Justin Verlander
justin-verlander-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $10,400
FPPG: 39.4 FPPG: 21.8
Pitcher Rating: 82.3 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 6 110.0 3.55 2.20 26.6% 5.1% 11.1% 29.9% 49.5% 32.4%
2016 26 107.2 3.66 3.38 26.1% 6.5% 11.7% 34.7% 46.6% 28.2%
2015 20 107.5 3.95 3.37 21.1% 6.0% 10.0% 34.6% 45.5% 23.0%

Given his matchup against the low-strikeout Angels, I expect Verlander’s ownership to go by the wayside tonight. I currently have him ranked as the second best pitching option in the slate. He is having a great season overall, posting a 3.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.1%. If he can pitch around Mike Trout, he should be able to put together another dominant performance. There will be talk about his strikeout upside in this matchup, but I don’t tend to factor the matchup in as much when it comes to elite pitchers. A strikeout per inning isn’t out of the question for Verlander.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels have the fifth lowest run projection and one of the worst matchups in the slate. Justin Verlander has bounced back this season and has reclaimed his spot as one of the top pitchers in baseball. He has a high strikeout rate and he has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters. Mike Trout (as usual) is the only Angels’ hitter on my radar tonight.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.325 0.157 0.278 OF $3,200 OF $2,600
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.416 0.277 0.402 OF $4,200 OF $5,100
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.324 0.198 0.260 1B $3,400 1B $3,300
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.336 0.196 0.131 1B $2,900 1B $3,300
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.292 0.069 0.242 SS $2,200 SS $2,000
6 Nick Buss RIGHT 0.386 0.286 0.318 OF $2,200 OF $2,100
7 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.291 0.168 0.229 C $2,500 C $2,600
8 Kaleb Cowart SWITCH 0.281 0.154 0.303 3B $2,100 3B $2,100
9 Cliff Pennington SWITCH 0.290 0.115 0.294 SS $2,200 2B/SS $2,200
Team Averages 0.327 0.180 0.273

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mike Trout

Stackability – RED

Detroit

The Tigers are a lot like the Blue Jays in that they seem to let us down when they are in an ideal situation offensively. While that’s tilting from a fantasy perspective, we have to continue to target the best matchups that we can. The Tigers are in a terrific matchup tonight against Ricky Nolasco, who is a reverse-splits pitcher. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .367 wOBA and 17 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.332 0.149 0.194 2B $3,900 2B $3,600
2 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.286 0.082 0.348 SS $2,900 SS $3,600
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.401 0.218 0.324 1B $4,200 1B $5,000
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.310 0.162 0.360 C $3,400 1B $4,100
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.379 0.249 0.546 OF $4,000 OF $5,000
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.334 0.197 0.284 OF $3,300 OF $3,500
7 Casey McGehee RIGHT 0.218 0.069 0.224 3B $2,100 3B $2,400
8 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.315 0.086 0.392 OF $3,100 OF $4,500
9 Jarrod Saltalamacchia SWITCH 0.310 0.203 0.311 C $2,400 C $3,200
Team Averages 0.321 0.157 0.331

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Erick Aybar, Justin Upton

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Kansas City at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Kansas City Boston
kansascitymlb Ian Kennedy bostonmlb Steven Wright
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -165 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.335 33 37.1% 24.5% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.266 7 23.4% 19.1%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.320 26 35.4% 23.7% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.306 13 35.4% 19.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ian Kennedy
ian-kennedy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $7,700
FPPG: 32.0 FPPG: 17.2
Pitcher Rating: 59.2 Pitcher Rank: 15
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 6 105.2 4.33 1.62 20.4% 6.6% 10.0% 36.1% 46.3% 35.8%
2016 25 101.4 4.07 3.58 23.7% 7.5% 10.0% 33.3% 48.1% 37.4%
2015 30 97.0 3.61 4.28 24.4% 7.3% 10.3% 38.5% 38.7% 35.2%

Kennedy is one of those pitchers that could give up five runs in any inning. When you roster him, it is the ultimate roller coaster ride. Well, buckle up folks, because tonight is going to be a bumpy one. In the last two seasons, Kennedy has allowed a 59 home runs in 55 starts. Tonight he has to face the best offense in baseball in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Anything can happen in baseball, but if you read the fine print, it excludes Kennedy from dominating in Fenway.

Steven Wright
steven-wright-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $9,400
FPPG: 35.6 FPPG: 18.8
Pitcher Rating: 66.3 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 3 100.7 4.68 5.30 19.5% 7.3% 9.9% 30.5% 50.8% 36.7%
2016 22 105.3 4.41 3.01 20.2% 8.4% 10.9% 44.2% 36.2% 28.0%
2015 9 130.9 4.60 4.09 16.8% 8.7% 9.3% 43.2% 43.2% 33.9%

Wright has been a regression candidate all season, but we have overlooked that for the most part thanks to his ability to pitch deep into games. The Red Sox haven’t been letting him throw 115-120 pitches lately though, which does hurt his fantasy appeal. I like the matchup against the Royals, but he is facing them in a hitter’s ballpark and he seems a bit overpriced. Gio Gonzalez and David Phelps are better plays in a points per dollar sense.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals are ranked dead last in wOBA over the last month of play. They are also ranked dead last in team ISO against right-handed pitching. While those numbers have to make Royals’ fans cringe, they find themselves in a decent spot tonight. Steven Wright hasn’t been sharp in his last few starts and they get to face him in Fenway. I won’t have a lot of exposure to the Royals, but they make interesting one-off plays.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Paulo Orlando RIGHT 0.304 0.129 0.273 OF $3,000 OF $3,600
2 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.308 0.142 0.287 3B $3,000 3B $3,200
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.316 0.115 0.379 OF $3,200 OF $3,600
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.365 0.177 0.292 1B $3,000 1B $3,600
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.348 0.213 0.365 1B $2,600 1B/OF $3,000
6 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.322 0.190 0.237 C $2,700 C $3,200
7 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.327 0.165 0.516 OF $2,700 OF $4,400
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.270 0.061 0.333 SS $2,800 SS $3,300
9 Raul Mondesi SWITCH 0.229 0.115 0.228 2B $2,300 2B $2,400
Team Averages 0.310 0.145 0.323

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

The Red Sox may not have the highest run projection tonight, but they are my odds-on favorite to score the most runs. They draw an excellent matchup against Ian Kennedy, who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a 37.4% hard hit contact rate this season. He isn’t particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate and he has allowed 59 home runs in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.351 0.143 0.351 2B $3,400 2B $3,800
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.335 0.121 0.294 SS $3,600 SS $3,500
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.427 0.337 0.532 1B $4,300 1B $5,200
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.368 0.215 0.426 OF $4,300 OF $5,200
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.312 0.153 0.401 1B $3,300 1B $4,000
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.374 0.274 0.300 OF $3,300 OF $4,400
7 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.335 0.131 0.508 C $2,700 C $3,400
8 Chris Young RIGHT 0.352 0.000 0.655 P $5,500 P $4,000
9 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.328 0.182 0.184 3B $2,800 1B/3B $3,000
Team Averages 0.354 0.173 0.406

Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Sandy Leon

Stackability – GREEN


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious