MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 26th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs
Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET
| Baltimore | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Yovani Gallardo | | Luis Cessa | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYY -110 | 9.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.339 | 15 | 24.1% | 15.7% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.283 | 2 | 31.3% | 14.3% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.319 | 11 | 28.2% | 15.0% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.323 | 3 | 31.1% | 16.7% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Yovani Gallardo | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $5,100 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 19.6 | FPPG: | 8.6 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 34.5 | Pitcher Rank: | 27 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 6 | 98.5 | 5.23 | 4.11 | 16.6% | 11.9% | 7.1% | 49.5% | 33.3% | 25.2% |
| 2016 | 17 | 93.4 | 5.54 | 5.08 | 15.5% | 12.2% | 6.4% | 42.8% | 38.6% | 27.7% |
| 2015 | 33 | 97.8 | 4.59 | 3.42 | 15.3% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 49.3% | 28.7% | 25.5% |
Quick Note: You can now jump to the different pages of the Grind Down by clicking the links at the top or bottom of the page.
Gallardo is a pitcher that we have been targeting hitters against all season. In 17 starts, he has a 5.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.5% and a walk rate of 12.2%. He has a high fly-ball rate, which has led to a high wOBA allowed to both left and right-handed hitters. His matchup against the Yankees doesn’t look tough on paper, but when you pencil Gary Sanchez in for at least two runs, it’s going to be difficult for Gallardo to hit value. He is an easy fade in all league formats against all of these left-handed hitters with that short porch in right.
| Luis Cessa | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $5,900 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 13.9 | FPPG: | 6.7 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 53.0 | Pitcher Rank: | 18 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 1 | 85.0 | 3.30 | 4.09 | 20.9% | 4.7% | 9.2% | 54.8% | 22.6% | 22.6% |
| 2016 | 1 | 85.0 | 4.53 | 4.01 | 15.7% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 42.7% | 37.3% | 31.2% |
Cessa is making his second start his tenth career major league appearance. He looked good in his first start, shutting out the Angels in six innings of work and striking out six batters. He showed nice upside in the minors this season, posting a 3.03 ERA with a strikeout rate of 22.3%. Tonight’s matchup against the Orioles is of the boom or bust natures. While they have the second highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, they also have one of the highest strikeout rates. While I don’t absolutely hate the play, there are a few pitchers that offer better value tonight.
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
This game is basically set as a pick ‘em, which means we can split the over/under in half to get each team’s projected run total. Their matchup against Luis Cessa is a difficult one to predict, because he is still an unknown quantity at the major league level. All we know is that the Orioles are ranked first in team ISO against right-handed pitching and that they are facing him in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
- Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.342 (2 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.315 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.202 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.9% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.84 (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.73 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.69 (11 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.210 | 0.301 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,400 |
| 2 | Hyun-Soo Kim | LEFT | 0.383 | 0.123 | 0.331 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,600 |
| 3 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.382 | 0.246 | 0.314 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B/SS | $4,800 |
| 4 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.227 | 0.393 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $5,000 |
| 5 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.384 | 0.312 | 0.493 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $4,800 |
| 6 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.359 | 0.226 | 0.342 | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $4,400 |
| 7 | Pedro Alvarez | LEFT | 0.348 | 0.254 | 0.403 | 3B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,000 |
| 8 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.313 | 0.156 | 0.337 | C | $2,400 | C | $4,200 |
| 9 | J.J. Hardy | RIGHT | 0.280 | 0.121 | 0.316 | SS | $2,200 | SS | $3,100 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.349 | 0.208 | 0.359 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Chris Davis
Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Hyun-Soo Kim, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo
Stackability – YELLOW
NY Yankees
The Yankees have an outside chance at making the postseason, even though they were major sellers at the trade deadline. A big series against the Orioles would go a long way in helping their chances. They draw one of my favorite matchups on the board, as they get to face Yovani Gallardo at home. Gallardo has not fared well against hitters from either side of the plate and he walks nearly as many batters as he strikes out.
- Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (23 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.318 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.159 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.9% (9 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.16 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.81 (9 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.138 | 0.181 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,000 |
| 2 | Jacoby Ellsbury | LEFT | 0.307 | 0.108 | 0.232 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,800 |
| 3 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.567 | 0.473 | 0.621 | C | $3,400 | C | $4,500 |
| 4 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.311 | 0.150 | 0.354 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,600 |
| 5 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.297 | 0.140 | 0.372 | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $3,600 |
| 6 | Brian McCann | LEFT | 0.326 | 0.195 | 0.296 | C | $2,800 | C | $3,600 |
| 7 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.269 | 0.335 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,900 |
| 8 | Tyler Austin | RIGHT | 0.198 | 0.158 | 0.164 | 1B | $2,300 | OF | $2,600 |
| 9 | Aaron Hicks | SWITCH | 0.288 | 0.126 | 0.355 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,400 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.332 | 0.195 | 0.323 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius
Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Starlin Castro, Brian McCann
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Colorado at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
| Colorado | Washington | ||||||||
| Jeff Hoffman | | Gio Gonzalez | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS -220 | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.495 | 0 | 33.3% | 9.1% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.278 | 2 | 29.6% | 17.7% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.321 | 1 | 37.5% | 11.1% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.323 | 22 | 31.8% | 23.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jeff Hoffman | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,300 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 0.0 | FPPG: | -3.8 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 24.6 | Pitcher Rank: | 30 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 1 | 77.0 | 5.21 | 13.50 | 10.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 47.1% | 35.3% | 35.3% |
| 2016 | 1 | 77.0 | 5.21 | 13.50 | 10.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 47.1% | 35.3% | 35.3% |
Hoffman is making his second career major league start tonight. It’s hard to glean anything from a single start, so let’s take a quick look at his minor league numbers. In 22 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 4.02 ERA with a strikeout rate of 24.2%. When we have these young pitchers making their first few starts, I always like to lean on Vegas. The line suggests a rough outing from Hoffman, as he is a large underdog in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs.
| Gio Gonzalez | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $6,100 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 29.2 | FPPG: | 14.9 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 78.0 | Pitcher Rank: | 4 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 6 | 95.5 | 4.31 | 3.55 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 40.6% | 38.6% | 36.6% |
| 2016 | 25 | 99.0 | 4.09 | 4.30 | 22.3% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 45.5% | 32.8% | 34.5% |
| 2015 | 31 | 95.1 | 3.77 | 3.79 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 53.8% | 26.6% | 28.7% |
Gonzalez is one of the largest favorites on the board tonight, which gives him some appeal in cash games. He hasn’t been in the best of form this season, but he still has a strikeout rate of 22.3% overall. He draws a favorable matchup against the Rockies, who have the ninth highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Colorado has also struggled on the road this season, ranking in the bottom ten in team wOBA. Gonzalez is a safe play in cash games, especially given the suppressed price point.
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
The Rockies come into tonight’s game with one of the lowest implied team totals in the slate. They are facing a competent pitcher in a tough ballpark for offensive production. The fact that three of their best four hitters are left-handed doesn’t help, as Gio Gonzalez has held lefties to a .278 wOBA in the last two seasons. Nolan Arenado is an intriguing one-off target, but the rest of the Rockies can be avoided.
- Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.336 (5 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.343 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.174 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.5% (22 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.94 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.29 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.81 (25 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Blackmon | LEFT | 0.341 | 0.122 | 0.596 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $5,100 |
| 2 | DJ LeMahieu | RIGHT | 0.373 | 0.113 | 0.555 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $4,900 |
| 3 | Nolan Arenado | RIGHT | 0.346 | 0.220 | 0.333 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $4,900 |
| 4 | Carlos Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.282 | 0.175 | 0.248 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,100 |
| 5 | David Dahl | LEFT | 0.364 | 0.087 | 0.352 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,000 |
| 6 | Ryan Raburn | RIGHT | 0.393 | 0.252 | 0.286 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $2,700 |
| 7 | Nick Hundley | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.161 | 0.308 | C | $2,700 | C | $2,700 |
| 8 | Cristhian Adames | SWITCH | 0.263 | 0.077 | 0.224 | SS | $2,400 | 2B/SS | $2,200 |
| 9 | Jeff Hoffman | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | P | $5,500 | P | $4,300 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.300 | 0.134 | 0.322 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado
Stackability – RED
Washington
The Nationals have the second highest run projection in the slate. They have been one of the best offenses in baseball over the last month of play, largely in part thanks to the stellar play of Trea Turner. We don’t know a lot about Hoffman, but he hasn’t shown great command thus far and the Nationals hit right-handed pitching well as a team. You can load up on Nationals’ hitters in both cash games and tournaments.
- Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.321 (11 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.336 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.3% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.83 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.19 (2 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.376 | 0.233 | 0.415 | SS | $4,200 | 2B/OF | $4,900 |
| 2 | Jayson Werth | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.135 | 0.354 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,600 |
| 3 | Daniel Murphy | LEFT | 0.378 | 0.227 | 0.407 | 2B | $4,200 | 1B/2B | $5,300 |
| 4 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.431 | 0.292 | 0.475 | OF | $3,900 | OF | $5,300 |
| 5 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.158 | 0.421 | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $4,500 |
| 6 | Wilson Ramos | RIGHT | 0.309 | 0.146 | 0.189 | C | $3,200 | C | $3,600 |
| 7 | Ryan Zimmerman | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.163 | 0.414 | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,500 |
| 8 | Danny Espinosa | SWITCH | 0.303 | 0.162 | 0.249 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $3,400 |
| 9 | Gio Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.153 | 0.029 | 0.251 | P | $8,100 | P | $6,100 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.318 | 0.172 | 0.353 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper
Secondary Plays – Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon, Wilson Ramos
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Minnesota at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET
| Minnesota | Toronto | ||||||||
| Pat Dean | | Francisco Liriano | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR -230 | 10.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.278 | 0 | 21.9% | 14.6% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.296 | 7 | 22.9% | 24.4% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.387 | 7 | 37.2% | 19.9% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.317 | 29 | 30.8% | 24.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Pat Dean | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,500 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 16.1 | FPPG: | 7.6 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 54.2 | Pitcher Rank: | 17 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 0 | 0.0 | 1.56 | 5.14 | 34.6% | 0.0% | 14.9% | 58.8% | 35.3% | 47.1% |
| 2016 | 6 | 92.8 | 4.34 | 5.48 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 45.5% | 35.9% | 33.8% |
Dean is making his first start in over a month, after making his recent appearances out of the bullpen. On the season, he has a 5.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.8%. He likely won’t pitch deep into tonight’s game, even if he is pitching well. Odds are that he isn’t going to fare well anyway though, as the Blue Jays are one of the most difficult matchups on the schedule. On the season, Toronto is ranked seventh in team wOBA and ninth in team ISO against left-handed pitching.
| Francisco Liriano | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | $6,900 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 24.4 | FPPG: | 11.6 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 72.5 | Pitcher Rank: | 8 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 89.0 | 4.49 | 6.23 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 48.7% | 31.6% | 38.8% |
| 2016 | 24 | 95.1 | 4.63 | 5.21 | 22.0% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 51.3% | 30.4% | 35.1% |
| 2015 | 31 | 96.2 | 3.38 | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 51.2% | 26.3% | 24.3% |
Liriano seems to get off to a good start in each outing, only to falter and allow a bunch of runs. In 24 starts this season, he has a 4.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 12.5%. I’m not a fan of his matchup tonight against the Twins, who have the fifth highest wOBA of any team in the last month of play. The Twins are also ranked fifth in team ISO against southpaws. I know the Blue Jays are large favorites here, but if you are looking for a cheap SP2, I’d much rather target Gio Gonzalez or David Phelps.
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
The Twins have been an offensive juggernaut recently. They come into tonight’s game with a slightly below-average run projection, but I’m not going to let that take me off of their right-handed hitters. The Twins see a ballpark boost playing in the Rogers Centre and they get to face a struggling Francisco Liriano. On the season, he has allowed a .358 wOBA and 17 home runs to batters from the right side of the plate.
- Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.327 (10 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.337 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.179 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.0% (26 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.94 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.52 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.25 (18 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.268 | 0.482 | 2B | $4,300 | 2B | $5,300 |
| 2 | Robbie Grossman | SWITCH | 0.362 | 0.155 | 0.283 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,700 |
| 3 | Miguel Sano | RIGHT | 0.382 | 0.237 | 0.197 | OF | $3,200 | 3B/OF | $3,600 |
| 4 | Trevor Plouffe | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.186 | 0.283 | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,300 |
| 5 | Jorge Polanco | RIGHT | 0.370 | 0.154 | 0.289 | 3B | $2,900 | 3B/SS | $3,000 |
| 6 | Eduardo Escobar | SWITCH | 0.322 | 0.195 | 0.358 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,000 |
| 7 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.278 | 0.131 | 0.240 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,600 |
| 8 | Kurt Suzuki | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.118 | 0.275 | C | $2,100 | C | $3,000 |
| 9 | Danny Santana | SWITCH | 0.245 | 0.075 | 0.083 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $2,900 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.330 | 0.169 | 0.277 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Trevor Plouffe
Secondary Plays – Robbie Grossman, Jorge Polanco
Stackability – YELLOW
Toronto
The Blue Jays were a letdown last night against Jered Weaver, but all that is going to do is lower their ownership tonight. They come into the game with the highest run projection in the slate, as they face left-handed Pat Dean at home. With Jose Bautista back in the lineup, this Blue Jays’ offense should be able to mash left-handed pitching the rest of the way. The sample size is small, but Dean has allowed a .387 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.
- Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.332 (7 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.318 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.172 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.9% (8 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.87 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.82 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.75 (1 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.218 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,000 | |
| 2 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.424 | 0.286 | 0.312 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $5,000 |
| 3 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.375 | 0.259 | 0.438 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $5,000 |
| 4 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.362 | 0.184 | 0.578 | C | $3,400 | C | $4,800 |
| 5 | Troy Tulowitzki | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.191 | 0.468 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $3,700 |
| 6 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.109 | 0.310 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,500 |
| 7 | Melvin Upton | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.241 | 0.356 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,600 |
| 8 | Michael Saunders | LEFT | 0.410 | 0.308 | 0.243 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,900 |
| 9 | Darwin Barney | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.121 | 0.396 | 2B | $2,600 | 2B/3B | $2,600 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.366 | 0.213 | 0.388 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki
Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Melvin Upton
Stackability – GREEN
LA Angels at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET
| LA Angels | Detroit | ||||||||
| Ricky Nolasco | | Justin Verlander | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| DET -200 | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.315 | 9 | 32.0% | 16.2% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.276 | 19 | 24.2% | 24.6% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.367 | 17 | 34.9% | 20.0% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.277 | 16 | 27.5% | 23.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Ricky Nolasco | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $5,800 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 22.7 | FPPG: | 11.1 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 49.0 | Pitcher Rank: | 20 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 102.8 | 4.14 | 4.55 | 18.5% | 3.9% | 8.8% | 45.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% |
| 2016 | 25 | 98.0 | 4.40 | 5.22 | 17.6% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 43.1% | 39.3% | 35.4% |
| 2015 | 8 | 83.1 | 4.10 | 6.75 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 40.7% | 31.7% | 26.0% |
Nolasco’s change of scenery (traded to the Angels) hasn’t really helped. His last five starts look eerily similar to his first 20 this season. He comes into tonight’s game as a huge underdog against the Tigers. Typically, we can target high-strikeout right-handed pitchers against Detroit, but there are two problems with that strategy tonight. The first, and most important is that Nolasco is not a high-strikeout pitcher. The second is that he is a reverse-splits pitcher, which actually hurts his appeal against a right-handed heavy lineup.
| Justin Verlander | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $9,600 | Salary: | $10,400 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 39.4 | FPPG: | 21.8 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 82.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 3 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 6 | 110.0 | 3.55 | 2.20 | 26.6% | 5.1% | 11.1% | 29.9% | 49.5% | 32.4% |
| 2016 | 26 | 107.2 | 3.66 | 3.38 | 26.1% | 6.5% | 11.7% | 34.7% | 46.6% | 28.2% |
| 2015 | 20 | 107.5 | 3.95 | 3.37 | 21.1% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 34.6% | 45.5% | 23.0% |
Given his matchup against the low-strikeout Angels, I expect Verlander’s ownership to go by the wayside tonight. I currently have him ranked as the second best pitching option in the slate. He is having a great season overall, posting a 3.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.1%. If he can pitch around Mike Trout, he should be able to put together another dominant performance. There will be talk about his strikeout upside in this matchup, but I don’t tend to factor the matchup in as much when it comes to elite pitchers. A strikeout per inning isn’t out of the question for Verlander.
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
The Angels have the fifth lowest run projection and one of the worst matchups in the slate. Justin Verlander has bounced back this season and has reclaimed his spot as one of the top pitchers in baseball. He has a high strikeout rate and he has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters. Mike Trout (as usual) is the only Angels’ hitter on my radar tonight.
- Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (19 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.297 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.139 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 15.8% (1 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.69 (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.42 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.67 (26 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kole Calhoun | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.157 | 0.278 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $2,600 |
| 2 | Mike Trout | RIGHT | 0.416 | 0.277 | 0.402 | OF | $4,200 | OF | $5,100 |
| 3 | Albert Pujols | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.198 | 0.260 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $3,300 |
| 4 | C.J. Cron | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.196 | 0.131 | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,300 |
| 5 | Andrelton Simmons | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.069 | 0.242 | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,000 |
| 6 | Nick Buss | RIGHT | 0.386 | 0.286 | 0.318 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,100 |
| 7 | Jett Bandy | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.168 | 0.229 | C | $2,500 | C | $2,600 |
| 8 | Kaleb Cowart | SWITCH | 0.281 | 0.154 | 0.303 | 3B | $2,100 | 3B | $2,100 |
| 9 | Cliff Pennington | SWITCH | 0.290 | 0.115 | 0.294 | SS | $2,200 | 2B/SS | $2,200 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.327 | 0.180 | 0.273 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Mike Trout
Stackability – RED
Detroit
The Tigers are a lot like the Blue Jays in that they seem to let us down when they are in an ideal situation offensively. While that’s tilting from a fantasy perspective, we have to continue to target the best matchups that we can. The Tigers are in a terrific matchup tonight against Ricky Nolasco, who is a reverse-splits pitcher. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .367 wOBA and 17 home runs to right-handed hitters.
- Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (10 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.329 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.169 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (19 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.63 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.83 (6 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Kinsler | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.149 | 0.194 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $3,600 |
| 2 | Erick Aybar | SWITCH | 0.286 | 0.082 | 0.348 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,600 |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | RIGHT | 0.401 | 0.218 | 0.324 | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $5,000 |
| 4 | Victor Martinez | SWITCH | 0.310 | 0.162 | 0.360 | C | $3,400 | 1B | $4,100 |
| 5 | J.D. Martinez | RIGHT | 0.379 | 0.249 | 0.546 | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,000 |
| 6 | Justin Upton | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.197 | 0.284 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,500 |
| 7 | Casey McGehee | RIGHT | 0.218 | 0.069 | 0.224 | 3B | $2,100 | 3B | $2,400 |
| 8 | Cameron Maybin | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.086 | 0.392 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,500 |
| 9 | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | SWITCH | 0.310 | 0.203 | 0.311 | C | $2,400 | C | $3,200 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.321 | 0.157 | 0.331 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez
Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Erick Aybar, Justin Upton
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Kansas City at Boston – 7:10 PM ET
| Kansas City | Boston | ||||||||
| Ian Kennedy | | Steven Wright | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BOS -165 | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.335 | 33 | 37.1% | 24.5% | SP vs. Left (2015-16) | 0.266 | 7 | 23.4% | 19.1% |
| SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.320 | 26 | 35.4% | 23.7% | SP vs. Right (2015-16) | 0.306 | 13 | 35.4% | 19.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Ian Kennedy | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $8,800 | Salary: | $7,700 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 32.0 | FPPG: | 17.2 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 59.2 | Pitcher Rank: | 15 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 6 | 105.2 | 4.33 | 1.62 | 20.4% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 36.1% | 46.3% | 35.8% |
| 2016 | 25 | 101.4 | 4.07 | 3.58 | 23.7% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 33.3% | 48.1% | 37.4% |
| 2015 | 30 | 97.0 | 3.61 | 4.28 | 24.4% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 38.5% | 38.7% | 35.2% |
Kennedy is one of those pitchers that could give up five runs in any inning. When you roster him, it is the ultimate roller coaster ride. Well, buckle up folks, because tonight is going to be a bumpy one. In the last two seasons, Kennedy has allowed a 59 home runs in 55 starts. Tonight he has to face the best offense in baseball in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Anything can happen in baseball, but if you read the fine print, it excludes Kennedy from dominating in Fenway.
| Steven Wright | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $9,400 | Salary: | $9,400 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 35.6 | FPPG: | 18.8 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 66.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 13 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 3 | 100.7 | 4.68 | 5.30 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 30.5% | 50.8% | 36.7% |
| 2016 | 22 | 105.3 | 4.41 | 3.01 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 44.2% | 36.2% | 28.0% |
| 2015 | 9 | 130.9 | 4.60 | 4.09 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 43.2% | 43.2% | 33.9% |
Wright has been a regression candidate all season, but we have overlooked that for the most part thanks to his ability to pitch deep into games. The Red Sox haven’t been letting him throw 115-120 pitches lately though, which does hurt his fantasy appeal. I like the matchup against the Royals, but he is facing them in a hitter’s ballpark and he seems a bit overpriced. Gio Gonzalez and David Phelps are better plays in a points per dollar sense.
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Royals are ranked dead last in wOBA over the last month of play. They are also ranked dead last in team ISO against right-handed pitching. While those numbers have to make Royals’ fans cringe, they find themselves in a decent spot tonight. Steven Wright hasn’t been sharp in his last few starts and they get to face him in Fenway. I won’t have a lot of exposure to the Royals, but they make interesting one-off plays.
- Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (27 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.288 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.126 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.4% (11 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.77 (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.97 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.12 (19 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paulo Orlando | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.129 | 0.273 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 |
| 2 | Cheslor Cuthbert | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.142 | 0.287 | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $3,200 |
| 3 | Lorenzo Cain | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.115 | 0.379 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,600 |
| 4 | Eric Hosmer | LEFT | 0.365 | 0.177 | 0.292 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,600 |
| 5 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.348 | 0.213 | 0.365 | 1B | $2,600 | 1B/OF | $3,000 |
| 6 | Salvador Perez | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.190 | 0.237 | C | $2,700 | C | $3,200 |
| 7 | Alex Gordon | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.165 | 0.516 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $4,400 |
| 8 | Alcides Escobar | RIGHT | 0.270 | 0.061 | 0.333 | SS | $2,800 | SS | $3,300 |
| 9 | Raul Mondesi | SWITCH | 0.229 | 0.115 | 0.228 | 2B | $2,300 | 2B | $2,400 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.310 | 0.145 | 0.323 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales
Stackability – ORANGE
Boston
The Red Sox may not have the highest run projection tonight, but they are my odds-on favorite to score the most runs. They draw an excellent matchup against Ian Kennedy, who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a 37.4% hard hit contact rate this season. He isn’t particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate and he has allowed 59 home runs in the last two seasons.
- Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.350 (1 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.323 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.0% (3 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.93 (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.48 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.88 (4 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Pedroia | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.143 | 0.351 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $3,800 |
| 2 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.121 | 0.294 | SS | $3,600 | SS | $3,500 |
| 3 | David Ortiz | LEFT | 0.427 | 0.337 | 0.532 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $5,200 |
| 4 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.368 | 0.215 | 0.426 | OF | $4,300 | OF | $5,200 |
| 5 | Hanley Ramirez | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.153 | 0.401 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,000 |
| 6 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | LEFT | 0.374 | 0.274 | 0.300 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,400 |
| 7 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.335 | 0.131 | 0.508 | C | $2,700 | C | $3,400 |
| 8 | Chris Young | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.000 | 0.655 | P | $5,500 | P | $4,000 |
| 9 | Travis Shaw | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.182 | 0.184 | 3B | $2,800 | 1B/3B | $3,000 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.354 | 0.173 | 0.406 | — | — | — | — |