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MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-20 03:04:40

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Milwaukee Chicago Cubs
Article Image Paolo Espino Article Image Eddie Butler
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-155 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.367 0.372 38.3% 9.9% 16.8% 42.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.391 0.345 37.8% 6.0% 16.2% 48.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Paolo Espino
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%

Espino will be making his major league debut today against the Cubs. On a positive note, the wind is finally blowing in from center field at Wrigley. Unfortunately, he still has to face a Cubs’ offense that has a lot of power against right-handed pitching. Espino is a long-time minor league pitcher that is finally getting a crack at the majors. Fun fact, he is only 12 days older than I am. He’s had a decent strikeout rate in the minors and is a fly-ball pitcher, which the wind in Chicago will help (blowing in from center at 16 MPH). I will be watching because this is the lone day game, but I will be taking a wait and see approach on Espino.

Quick Breakdown: As a large underdog on the road, Espino can be avoided in all formats.

Eddie Butler
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $5,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 9 4.53 7.17 16.0% 7.2% 45.8% 38.7% 13.1%
2017 1 4.78 0.00 21.7% 13.0% 50.0% 26.7% 40.0%

Butler is coming off of his best start in the last two seasons and possibly in his career. He struck out five batters in six scoreless innings against the Cardinals. If you are playing in the all-day slate, Butler is a serviceable SP2 on DraftKings at a price of $5,600. The Brewers’ offense is extremely short-handed right now and they have the third highest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Butler is a viable SP2 in the all-day slate on DraftKings, but he’s far from a core play.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers can’t seem to stay healthy. Jonathan Villar, Ryan Braun, Eric Thames, and Travis Shaw have all missed games recently, which has led to some really bad lineups. It will be interesting to see the lineup they put out today against Eddie Butler, who has allowed a .345+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. With the wind blowing in from center, I’m not particularly interested in Milwaukee. However, Eric Sogard (everyone’s favorite baseball nerd) has scored at least 24 fantasy points in four of his last six games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Sogard LEFT 0.626 0.572 0.600 40.0% 25.0% 0.0% 60.0% SS $2,500 2B $2,700 N/A N/A
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.426 0.367 0.323 45.7% 15.5% 22.4% 39.1% 1B $4,000 1B $4,600 N/A N/A
3 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.317 0.293 0.160 30.6% 5.1% 19.2% 48.4% OF $3,200 OF/SS $3,300 N/A N/A
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.333 0.334 0.199 35.6% 8.4% 23.0% 38.4% 3B $3,900 3B $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.336 0.338 0.181 34.9% 10.8% 31.9% 46.4% OF $3,400 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
6 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.293 0.288 0.160 27.2% 3.8% 18.6% 30.9% C $2,500 C $3,000 N/A N/A
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.323 0.293 0.179 38.4% 10.7% 36.4% 43.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.256 0.244 0.138 25.8% 5.4% 21.8% 53.4% SS $2,400 SS $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Paolo Espino RIGHT P $5,500 P $4,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Sogard, Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

If you look strictly at the team statistics for the season, you’ll see that the Cubs are ranked 22nd in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. With all of the power in their lineup, I expect them to end up being a top ten offense against righties. Major league pitching debuts are always tough to predict. We had two of them last night; one was had a nice outing (Sam Gaviglio) and the other was shelled (Hector Velazquez). The Cubs don’t have the highest implied run total in the slate, which is large part thanks to the wind blowing in from center.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.299 0.368 0.188 35.4% 13.0% 25.2% 44.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.378 0.351 0.230 37.6% 10.0% 22.9% 31.3% 3B $4,100 3B $5,300 N/A N/A
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.389 0.377 0.254 36.8% 11.9% 16.7% 36.8% 1B $4,100 1B $5,100 N/A N/A
4 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.634 0.384 0.700 42.9% 23.1% 23.1% 42.9% 2B $3,200 2B $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.351 0.362 0.170 32.8% 15.6% 12.0% 46.8% OF $2,900 2B/OF $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.341 0.320 0.203 33.1% 9.9% 28.2% 53.3% C $2,900 C $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.301 0.265 0.164 28.6% 1.5% 26.0% 44.8% 2B $2,500 2B $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Eddie Butler RIGHT 0.121 0.149 0.000 14.3% 5.9% 11.8% 100.0% P $7,500 P $5,600 N/A N/A
9 Jon Jay LEFT 0.312 0.301 0.106 31.3% 5.7% 21.0% 50.9% OF $2,500 OF $3,100 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Pittsburgh
Article Image Jeremy Hellickson Article Image Trevor Williams
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-122 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.347 26.6% 8.7% 15.5% 31.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.367 0.283 26.4% 7.3% 15.9% 35.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.314 26.1% 2.8% 20.4% 45.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.416 0.388 27.6% 10.8% 19.3% 47.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Hellickson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.15 3.71 20.0% 5.8% 40.7% 25.9% 20.8%
2017 8 5.50 3.71 10.0% 4.4% 32.2% 27.8% 19.9%

Hellickson is off to a shaky start this season. In eight starts, he has a 10% strikeout rate, which is exactly half of where it was last season. He comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog and the over/under is set at a whopping 9.0 runs. PNC Park is a pitcher’s park, which goes to show how little confidence Vegas has in either of these starting pitchers. Until the strikeouts start to come up, Hellickson can continue to be avoided in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: We need to see Hellickson flash some form before using him in DFS.

Trevor Williams
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $9,900
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.28 7.82 18.0% 8.2% 45.5% 31.1% 17.8%
2017 2 4.70 6.41 17.6% 9.9% 39.4% 24.2% 28.8%

Williams is making his fourth start in the last two years. His first three haven’t been great, as he boasts an ERA close to 7.00 with a below-average strikeout rate. He draws a favorable matchup against the Phillies and he does get to pitch at home, but we can find better options than a pitcher that is barely favored in a game with a total of 9.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Even against the Phillies, there is more risk than potential reward with Williams tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies have a sneaky high implied run total here, but this is a 14 game slate. When you are making lineups, they are not going to make the final cut. This isn’t a bad spot at all, as they are facing a young pitcher in Trevor Williams that only has three career starts under his belt. Odubel Herrera, Tommy Joseph, and Michael Saunders are all fine one-off targets, but this is a slate where we can afford to be picky.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.339 0.310 0.113 25.9% 11.2% 19.0% 52.8% 2B $3,200 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.341 0.305 0.152 28.2% 9.0% 20.9% 43.3% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.308 0.299 0.151 32.6% 10.4% 31.9% 50.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.324 0.321 0.205 36.8% 5.7% 23.2% 41.1% 1B $3,500 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
5 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.326 0.327 0.189 38.0% 10.4% 26.7% 38.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.296 0.323 0.155 29.4% 6.8% 16.2% 44.4% 3B $3,200 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
7 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.306 0.321 0.174 33.0% 6.7% 28.4% 46.6% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.306 0.274 0.178 27.8% 5.2% 21.5% 40.3% SS $2,900 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
9 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.185 0.176 0.060 5.4% 6.7% 31.7% 75.9% P $7,100 P $7,100 P $14,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Tommy Joseph, Michael Saunders

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Jeremy Hellickson doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact, but if he’s striking batters out at a 10% clip, we have to at least be interested in the Pirates. They currently have the fourth highest implied run total in the slate and their offense has been heating up over the last few games. The issue here is whether we want to play the Pirates over some of the other offenses in this slate. Adam Frazier, Andrew McCutchen, and Josh Bell are all viable plays, I’m just not sure they will make the final cut when it comes to lineup construction.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.332 0.335 0.138 31.9% 7.4% 15.8% 42.4% OF $2,800 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.299 0.273 0.105 27.1% 3.6% 14.7% 43.9% 3B $2,800 2B/3B $3,500 2B $6,800
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.311 0.330 0.158 34.8% 9.3% 21.4% 36.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
4 John Jaso LEFT 0.335 0.334 0.155 31.1% 10.4% 17.2% 48.5% 1B $2,400 1B/OF $2,900 1B $5,600
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.321 0.324 0.133 32.6% 8.7% 27.6% 58.9% 3B $2,400 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
6 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.352 0.353 0.171 31.7% 12.9% 16.5% 50.0% 1B $2,800 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.307 0.319 0.099 28.0% 12.7% 19.1% 53.4% C $2,900 C $3,300 C $6,600
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.286 0.295 0.091 25.4% 8.7% 14.4% 49.5% SS $2,300 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
9 Trevor Williams RIGHT 0.000 0.085 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 100.0% P $6,200 P $5,000 P $9,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Toronto Baltimore
Article Image Aaron Sanchez Article Image Chris Tillman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-113 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.294 0.342 33.1% 11.0% 21.8% 47.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.318 0.318 29.8% 11.0% 22.8% 40.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.265 0.289 27.8% 5.0% 18.5% 59.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.339 32.1% 8.0% 16.7% 41.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Sanchez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.01 3.00 20.4% 8.0% 54.4% 30.3% 20.7%
2017 4 4.62 2.95 18.4% 9.2% 43.6% 30.9% 18.2%

When fully healthy, Sanchez is one of my favorite sleepers to use in DFS. He is always cheap, he has a high ground ball rate, and he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. He is actually fairly similar to Marcus Stroman when you look at his numbers as a whole. Unfortunately, his ground ball rate and strikeout rate are both down this season. His swinging strike rate is also trending in the wrong direction. In a 14 game slate, it’s hard to justify playing him on the road against a stacked Orioles’ offense.

Quick Breakdown: Sanchez is a deep tournament flier at best.

Chris Tillman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.61 3.77 19.6% 9.2% 41.2% 31.5% 18.3%
2017 2 4.99 2.89 18.2% 11.4% 35.5% 25.8% 25.8%

Tillman has a low ERA in his first two starts, but he has a 4.99 SIERA with an 11% walk rate. He has shown strikeout upside in waves throughout his career, but his season strikeout rate typically end up being right around the league average. On paper, he draws an excellent matchup against the Blue Jays, whose lineup looks more like a Triple-A lineup than a major league lineup. Outside of Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, and Justin Smoak, Toronto’s lineup is very attackable from a pitcher’s point of view.

Quick Breakdown: I like the matchup for Tillman and he’s not the worst play on the board. He’s in consideration as an SP2 for tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays’ offense came alive last night, but they aren’t going to be a real threat until they get some of their missing pieces back. Their matchup against Chris Tillman is mediocre, but he has struggled a bit against right-handed hitters, allowing a .339 xwOBA with a 32% hard contact rate. Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, and Justin Smoak are all viable one-off targets, but I don’t see this as a great spot to stack Toronto’s offense. Darrell Ceciliani is currently in the projected lineup, but it sounds like his shoulder injury could land him on the DL.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.302 0.267 0.113 25.1% 7.3% 21.5% 56.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
2 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.351 0.362 0.212 39.3% 16.8% 22.7% 36.8% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
3 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.313 0.397 0.198 41.7% 8.3% 19.4% 47.9% 1B $2,900 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
4 Darrell Ceciliani LEFT 0.168 0.167 0.100 36.4% 0.0% 45.0% 27.3% OF $2,000 OF $3,000 LF $6,000
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.320 0.344 0.192 42.5% 11.0% 33.7% 29.0% 1B $3,700 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
6 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.327 0.306 0.163 30.5% 5.3% 19.6% 46.2% 2B $2,800 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
7 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.256 0.272 0.145 28.7% 6.6% 21.2% 48.2% 2B $2,000 SS $3,000 2B $6,000
8 Chris Coghlan LEFT 0.268 0.283 0.130 29.1% 10.2% 25.7% 44.8% OF $2,000 3B $2,700 IF/OF $5,400
9 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.204 0.221 0.080 25.6% 4.2% 23.5% 53.6% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

When it comes to Aaron Sanchez, we want to stay far away from the right-handed hitters in the opposing lineup. Since the start of last season, he has held righties to a .289 xwOBA with a 5% walk rate and a 59% ground ball rate. He has only allowed a .294 wOBA to lefties, but that number jumps all the way up to .342 when looking at his xwOBA (what we should expect him to give up based on a number of factors). Seth Smith and Chris Davis are both elite plays tonight. The Orioles don’t have any other lefties, but if they get to Sanchez early, the right-handed hitters could end up feasting on the Blue Jays bullpen. An Orioles’ stack is firmly in play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.347 0.377 0.181 33.9% 11.3% 20.3% 46.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.340 0.345 0.188 33.1% 5.7% 16.0% 43.1% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.350 0.358 0.242 35.0% 6.9% 19.0% 37.4% 3B $3,700 3B $4,900 3B $9,600
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.358 0.363 0.268 42.8% 14.4% 33.5% 37.0% 1B $3,700 1B $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.371 0.379 0.270 37.9% 7.6% 24.3% 39.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.336 0.319 0.200 30.1% 2.8% 19.3% 42.8% 2B $3,300 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.306 0.292 0.122 34.6% 6.4% 27.1% 40.2% C $3,300 C $3,500 C $6,800
8 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.434 0.426 0.425 51.9% 4.5% 31.8% 44.4% 1B $3,200 1B/OF $3,200 1B $6,300
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.280 0.283 0.112 30.0% 4.4% 17.2% 42.8% SS $2,300 SS $3,000 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – Seth Smith, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Colorado Cincinnati
Article Image Tyler Anderson Article Image Lisalverto Bonilla
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-110 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 0.297 24.1% 7.6% 21.4% 52.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.365 0.484 31.6% 12.0% 12.0% 33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.351 0.293 30.6% 6.0% 21.2% 46.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.267 0.253 17.7% 7.1% 28.6% 47.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Anderson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 3.84 3.54 20.7% 5.9% 50.9% 28.2% 24.2%
2017 8 3.95 6.43 22.7% 7.6% 39.0% 31.3% 23.4%

Anderson has a 6.43 ERA this season, but his advanced statistics suggest some improvement moving forward. He has a 3.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He is one of the best in baseball at inducing soft contact, even though his ground ball rate has taken a big dip this season. Even though Great American Ballpark is one of the worst pitcher’s parks in baseball, I have some interest in Anderson as an SP2 in tournaments. He is dirt cheap on both DraftKings and FantasyDraft and six of the projected nine starters for the Reds have a strikeout rate of at least 20% against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Anderson isn’t a safe play by any means, but he carries some upside at this price point.

Lisalverto Bonilla
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 1 4.30 4.85 20.8% 9.4% 40.0% 25.0% 16.7%

Bonilla has made four major league starts in his career. Unlike most of the pitchers that have been called up recently, Bonilla actually has some strikeout upside. He has posted a k-rate of at least 20% in each of his last five seasons in the minors. There are obviously concerns with him being a fly-ball pitcher in a home run friendly ballpark, but I have some interest in Bonilla as a deep tournament play. He is dirt cheap on DraftKings and FantasyDraft and we know the Rockies’ offense struggles away from Coors Field (25th in team wOBA on the road).

Quick Breakdown: Given the strikeout upside he’s shown in the minors, Bonilla is an intriguing play in large field tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

I may have a Lisalverto Bonilla share or two tonight, but I will also make sure to get some exposure to the Rockies’ offense. They are facing an inexperienced fly-ball pitcher in one of the best ballparks in baseball for home run production. This is a boom or bust matchup, so we might as well get some exposure to both sides of the equation. Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and Carlos Gonzalez are all excellent one-off targets and you can even consider a full Rockies’ stack in this ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.411 0.376 0.285 39.3% 7.1% 17.5% 30.8% OF $4,100 OF $5,300 CF $10,200
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.369 0.378 0.118 33.0% 9.7% 12.7% 53.1% 2B $3,100 2B $4,600 2B $8,800
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.378 0.345 0.268 36.9% 7.7% 14.0% 36.3% 3B $4,200 3B $5,200 3B $10,200
4 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.351 0.342 0.186 35.4% 9.6% 18.4% 44.9% OF $2,900 OF $4,500 RF $8,700
5 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.395 0.330 0.237 31.3% 9.3% 24.4% 40.3% 1B $3,800 1B $4,700 1B $9,300
6 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.327 0.306 0.160 30.6% 6.3% 25.6% 55.8% OF $3,500 1B/OF $4,800 LF $9,300
7 Pat Valaika RIGHT 0.344 0.205 0.294 38.5% 0.0% 25.7% 48.0% SS $2,600 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
8 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.336 0.289 0.142 23.8% 8.9% 21.6% 41.9% C $2,300 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Tyler Anderson LEFT 0.218 0.202 0.088 11.1% 9.3% 27.9% 50.0% P $7,400 P $6,900 P $13,600

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gonzalez, Mark Reynolds

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

I typically don’t like targeting hitters against Tyler Anderson, unless they are facing him in Coors Field. He is a ground ball pitcher that induces a ton of soft contact. However, his ground ball rate is all the way down to 39% this season and his hard contact rate is up to 31%. If you get the ball in the air at Great American Ballpark, good things tend to happen. The Reds aren’t an offense that I’m going to force into my lineups, but the right-handed hitters are worth a look in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.255 0.253 0.088 16.7% 3.8% 19.6% 45.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 CF $8,700
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.337 0.312 0.240 34.3% 7.7% 16.8% 41.1% SS $3,600 SS $3,800 SS $7,500
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.372 0.347 0.182 31.0% 11.0% 21.9% 53.8% 1B $4,400 1B $5,000 1B $9,900
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.371 0.360 0.288 40.5% 10.0% 24.7% 35.1% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.379 0.352 0.248 37.8% 10.9% 24.7% 46.8% 3B $3,000 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.305 0.356 0.222 36.7% 3.9% 15.6% 45.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.289 0.317 0.093 22.4% 4.3% 12.0% 48.7% 2B $2,400 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.282 0.331 0.042 20.0% 22.6% 12.9% 60.0% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,700
9 Lisalverto Bonilla RIGHT 0.525 0.283 0.000 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% 100.0% P $7,700 P $5,100 P $10,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Texas Detroit
Article Image Nick Martinez Article Image Daniel Norris
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-138 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.397 0.391 35.8% 13.0% 7.9% 43.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.301 30.3% 11.6% 29.5% 35.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.345 0.316 25.7% 4.2% 12.0% 52.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 0.341 39.2% 7.7% 18.9% 40.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Martinez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 5.84 5.59 8.9% 10.6% 50.4% 33.8% 15.1%
2017 5 4.93 5.04 11.8% 4.7% 45.7% 25.5% 24.5%

Martinez is not a good pitcher, at least not at the major league level. In his last ten starts, he has a SIERA close to 5.40 with a strikeout rate just above 10%. He has done a nice job of limiting hard contact this season, but that’s the only positive thing that I can say about him. He is an easy fade tonight on the road against the Tigers.

Quick Breakdown: Moving on.

Daniel Norris
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 3.94 3.38 23.5% 7.3% 38.3% 33.0% 12.4%
2017 7 4.95 4.34 17.6% 10.8% 41.5% 44.8% 15.2%

Norris hasn’t been terrible this season, but he hasn’t shown the same strikeout upside that he had in 2016. In seven starts this year, he has a 4.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. The biggest red flag here is the 44% hard contact rate. When you are a fly-ball pitcher that isn’t striking hitters out and is allowing a lot of hard contact, that’s generally not a recipe for success. The Rangers have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching this season though, ranking dead last in team wOBA and and team strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: Thanks to the matchup, Norris is worth a look as an SP2 in tournaments, but he’s too risky to consider in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers may be awful against left-handed pitching, but the right-handed hitters in this lineup are all in play. Over the last two seasons, Daniel Norris has allowed a .341 xwOBA with a 39% hard contact rate. His strikeout rate also dips 10% when facing a righty. Delino Deshields, Elvis Andrus, Jonathan Lucroy, Mike Napoli, and Ryan Rua are the hitters to keep an eye on here. They are by no means core plays, although Lucroy could end up being the best catching option on the board if he bats clean-up again.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.241 0.236 0.067 24.2% 8.1% 25.3% 51.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
2 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.297 0.325 0.150 39.6% 4.3% 20.1% 41.5% 2B $2,900 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.228 0.262 0.029 20.4% 4.7% 24.2% 59.2% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
4 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.353 0.308 0.145 28.1% 7.5% 11.9% 51.2% SS $2,900 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
5 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.345 0.372 0.243 36.4% 9.5% 20.9% 34.5% C $3,000 C $3,700 C $7,200
6 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.334 0.336 0.181 37.9% 14.5% 31.1% 37.1% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
7 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.398 0.370 0.229 31.5% 13.1% 19.0% 54.7% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
8 Ryan Rua RIGHT 0.314 0.304 0.133 34.0% 7.6% 25.0% 52.1% OF $2,400 1B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
9 Pete Kozma RIGHT 0.227 0.295 0.000 25.0% 20.0% 0.0% 25.0% SS $2,000 3B/SS $2,700 SS $5,400

Elite Plays – Jonathan Lucroy

Secondary Plays – Delino Deshields, Elvis Andrus, Mike Napoli, Ryan Rua

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers are facing a low strikeout pitcher at home and have one of the highest implied run totals in the slate. Nick Martinez is not a good pitcher at this stage of his career and I expect Detroit to tee off against him in this spot. Martinez does allow a much higher xwOBA and hard contact rate to lefties, but that’s not going to take me off of the right-handed hitters in this lineups. A Tigers’ stack is firmly in play for cash games and tournaments. The only downside is that the Tigers are expected to be without Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.339 0.326 0.170 34.2% 7.4% 16.3% 33.7% 2B $3,500 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.354 0.391 0.194 40.1% 7.3% 25.2% 33.8% 3B $3,200 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.400 0.403 0.254 40.1% 10.6% 25.4% 42.9% OF $4,000 OF $4,700 RF $9,300
4 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.342 0.353 0.236 39.7% 9.5% 29.1% 39.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
5 Alex Avila LEFT 0.364 0.385 0.198 42.5% 17.5% 35.4% 41.6% C $3,000 1B/C $3,200 C $6,300
6 Tyler Collins LEFT 0.313 0.312 0.146 35.0% 8.7% 25.6% 34.5% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.235 0.273 0.087 29.9% 6.1% 28.1% 42.3% C $2,500 C $2,800 C $5,600
8 Andrew Romine LEFT 0.288 0.293 0.129 25.9% 6.2% 19.1% 45.9% OF $2,500 OF/SS $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.263 0.258 0.065 17.0% 4.9% 11.9% 55.0% SS $2,300 SS $2,600 SS $5,200

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, J.D. Martinez, Alex Avila

Secondary Plays – Justin Upton, Tyler Collins

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious