MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-25 19:39:24

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
San Francisco								Chicago Cubs
			Derek Holland							Kyle Hendricks
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-240							10.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.176	0.239	20.0%	9.4%	12.5%	47.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.325	0.339	29.9%	7.2%	23.7%	46.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.357	0.385	46.9%	10.1%	22.6%	33.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.275	0.343	33.3%	3.1%	16.3%	51.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Derek Holland
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$11,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	26	5.57	6.20	16.6%	12.0%	37.7%	38.4%	17.6%
	2018	9	4.61	4.94	21.0%	10.0%	35.6%	42.0%	17.4%
	L14	2	5.04	2.92	19.2%	11.5%	37.1%	38.9%	19.4%

Whether you are reading this from work, from school, or on your phone — happy Friday! We have one early game on the schedule today and it should provide plenty of fireworks. It’s not only hot in Chicago, but we have a helping wind blowing out to left-center field. The total for the game is set at 10.5 runs, which makes both of these pitchers risky fantasy options, even if you are playing the showdown slate. Holland is a fly ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact to righties, which does not bode well for the conditions in Wrigley today.

Quick Breakdown: Holland could easily end up in the negative in this start.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Hendricks
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$15,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	24	4.08	3.03	21.6%	7.0%	50.1%	30.4%	22.5%
	2018	9	3.81	3.40	19.5%	4.9%	49.4%	32.0%	21.9%
	L14	2	3.15	4.91	25.5%	4.3%	43.8%	42.4%	21.2%

Hendricks is the preferred pitching option in this game, but it makes sense to avoid pitchers completely in the showdown slate. These are the best hitting conditions outside of Coors Field today. To have success, Hendricks will need to keep the ball in the catcher’s glove (strikeouts) and on the ground. He’s certainly capable of that against this Giants’ lineup that has a .309 xwOBA and a 30% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Hendricks is an easy fade in the all-day slate and a borderline play in the showdown slate.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants were expected to have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in baseball, but that hasn’t been the case in the first two months of the season. As long as they can put the ball in play today, we should like their chances in these ideal hitting conditions. Kyle Hendricks doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact, but he has given up a .339 xwOBA to lefties and a .343 xwOBA to righties this season. The first six batters in this lineup are all viable with the wind blowing out to left-center field in Wrigley.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Gorkys Hernandez	RIGHT	0.353	0.392	0.143	29.4%	2.0%	31.4%	44.1%	OF	$2,400	OF	$5,400	N/A	N/A
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.380	0.341	0.113	49.4%	14.3%	22.2%	31.6%	OF	$2,700	OF	$6,400	N/A	N/A
3	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.359	0.408	0.072	38.3%	7.6%	15.2%	48.1%	C	$2,700	1B/C	$7,200	N/A	N/A
4	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.467	0.428	0.361	51.9%	13.5%	23.0%	11.5%	1B	$4,100	1B	$9,200	N/A	N/A
5	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.314	0.327	0.155	47.2%	2.5%	22.5%	40.4%	3B	$2,800	3B	$6,200	N/A	N/A
6	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.345	0.401	0.146	43.8%	3.6%	22.7%	35.9%	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,900	N/A	N/A
7	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.255	0.321	0.082	42.3%	10.7%	42.9%	34.6%	OF	$2,200	OF	$5,800	N/A	N/A
8	Kelby Tomlinson	RIGHT	0.274	0.279	0.082	22.5%	3.8%	17.3%	60.5%	2B	$2,000	2B/SS	$4,800	N/A	N/A
9	Derek Holland	LEFT	0.037	0.121	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	75.0%	100.0%	P	$7,300	P	$11,600	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt

Secondary Plays – Gorkys Hernandez, Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have the highest implied run total of any team on the schedule with one exception — the Rockies. Chicago has a near-perfect matchup against Derek Holland and they are playing at home in hot weather with the wind blowing out to left-center. On the season, Holland has allowed a .385 xwOBA, a 47% hard contact rate, and a 10% walk rate to right-handed hitters. I wouldn’t keep Anthony Rizzo off of your Cubs’ stacks, but the righties in this lineup have the splits in their favor.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.387	0.386	0.059	40.0%	8.1%	10.8%	34.5%	OF	$2,600	2B/OF	$7,400	N/A	N/A
2	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.318	0.317	0.216	25.0%	9.5%	4.8%	42.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$6,800	N/A	N/A
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.517	0.471	0.553	54.8%	7.3%	17.1%	16.1%	3B	$4,600	3B	$10,800	N/A	N/A
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.274	0.383	0.162	33.3%	4.9%	24.4%	23.1%	1B	$3,900	1B	$9,900	N/A	N/A
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.410	0.424	0.200	34.5%	14.6%	14.6%	44.8%	C	$3,200	C	$8,900	N/A	N/A
6	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.361	0.292	0.273	40.0%	6.4%	19.1%	57.6%	2B	$4,000	2B	$8,300	N/A	N/A
7	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.364	0.455	0.233	52.6%	6.1%	33.3%	26.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$8,600	N/A	N/A
8	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.298	0.305	0.184	29.0%	9.5%	16.7%	35.5%	SS	$2,800	SS	$6,600	N/A	N/A
9	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.017	0.107	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	50.0%	P	$8,200	P	$15,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Ben Zobrist, Albert Almora, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Javier Baez

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, Addison Russell

Stackability – GREEN

LA Angels at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Angels								NY Yankees
			Andrew Heaney							Luis Severino
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-230							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.283	0.252	15.0%	3.3%	30.0%	36.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.264	0.296	37.7%	10.0%	37.0%	44.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.304	0.338	37.7%	9.6%	27.2%	40.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.228	0.299	28.0%	3.9%	25.5%	49.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Andrew Heaney
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$13,900
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30
	2017	5	4.05	7.06	26.7%	8.9%	30.2%	50.8%	12.3%
	2018	7	3.50	3.35	27.7%	8.4%	39.6%	33.3%	20.0%
	L14	2	3.40	0.64	32.1%	11.3%	46.7%	36.7%	13.3%

Heaney was once a top pitching prospect and he’s starting to show why. In his seven starts this season, he has a 3.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. One of his best outings came against this Yankees’ team, but that game was played in Los Angeles. It’s a completely different story when you are facing this offense in Yankee Stadium. Heaney does have strikeout potential here, but fly-ball pitchers do not fare well in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Huge range of potential outcomes for Heaney tonight, but I’ll side with the Yankees’ offense.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Severino
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,300	Salary:		$11,200	Salary:		$21,200
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	2017	31	3.25	2.98	29.4%	6.5%	50.6%	28.5%	19.4%
	2018	10	2.96	2.35	30.0%	6.3%	47.8%	31.3%	21.9%
	L14	2	3.66	3.00	25.5%	7.8%	39.4%	50.0%	14.7%

Severino has just as much ‘eliteness’ as the other top arms in baseball, but he doesn’t get the same recognition from the national media. In his ten starts this season, he has a 2.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate 30%. He has above-average control and he generates a lot of ground balls and soft contact. He’ll face a right-handed heavy Angels’ offense tonight at home. While Los Angeles has a low strikeout rate as a whole, Severino struck out eight batters in his first meeting with the Angels earlier this season.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is an elite tournament play. He should have lower ownership than Scherzer.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels are playing in a home run-friendly ballpark, but draw one of the worst matchups of slate. In addition to an elite strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate, Luis Severino has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA this season. Typically, Mike Trout offers upside as a one-off in tournaments, but I’m not sure we need to go there in this 14-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.326	0.352	0.104	31.0%	10.8%	9.9%	44.8%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,000	2B	$5,600
2	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.440	0.358	0.323	46.5%	19.5%	19.5%	33.7%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,400	CF	$10,300
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.377	0.398	0.242	43.1%	7.2%	26.3%	41.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,300
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.331	0.297	0.167	39.0%	4.0%	13.9%	39.8%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,100	1B	$6,000
5	Shohei Ohtani	RIGHT	0.441	0.403	0.358	47.1%	4.3%	22.9%	39.2%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
6	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.374	0.375	0.149	37.1%	6.1%	4.6%	46.9%	SS	$3,400	SS	$3,800	SS	$7,700
7	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.311	0.289	0.183	36.7%	7.1%	19.9%	40.2%	3B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,100	SS	$5,800
8	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.298	0.259	0.107	24.6%	5.4%	16.1%	39.7%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700	C	$5,500
9	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.251	0.276	0.054	34.6%	5.0%	29.4%	59.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	RF	$5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees draw a boom or bust type of matchup against Andrew Heaney. While he has a high strikeout rate, he’s a fly ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters. On the season, Heaney has allowed a .338 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to righties. This plays right into the hands of the Yankees, as their lineup is loaded with right-handed power. Given the home run upside in this ballpark, the Yankees are on my short list of stack targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.404	0.417	0.167	35.5%	9.8%	14.6%	40.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,200
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.421	0.453	0.196	45.8%	24.2%	35.5%	29.2%	OF	$5,000	OF	$5,300	RF	$9,900
3	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.544	0.457	0.531	63.2%	7.4%	22.2%	31.6%	OF	$5,100	OF	$5,000	RF	$10,400
4	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.443	0.487	0.361	37.0%	18.2%	20.5%	44.4%	C	$4,000	C	$4,600	C	$9,200
5	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.280	0.215	0.167	20.9%	9.4%	9.4%	39.0%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,100
6	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.455	0.345	0.341	41.4%	8.5%	27.7%	31.0%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,400
7	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.295	0.401	0.205	29.7%	4.3%	17.0%	48.6%	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,300
8	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.251	0.400	0.043	38.9%	0.0%	21.7%	33.3%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,700	2B	$7,700
9	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.451	0.535	0.231	38.1%	10.3%	17.2%	33.3%	2B	$4,300	2B	$4,500	2B	$9,100

Elite Plays – Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Tyler Austin

Stackability – GREEN

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%
St. Louis								Pittsburgh
			John Gant						Joe Musgrove
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-125						9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.339	0.363	58.6%	6.8%	27.3%	39.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.126	0.171	20.0%	7.1%	21.4%	50.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
John Gant
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$4,500	Salary:		$9,300
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30
	2017	2	5.57	4.67	14.5%	13.2%	53.7%	29.6%	25.9%
	2018	2	3.47	4.67	25.0%	6.9%	43.8%	42.9%	18.4%
	L14	1	2.77	5.00	30.8%	7.7%	54.2%	37.5%	16.7%

Gant has flashed some upside in his first two starts of the season, but he has never been a high-strikeout pitcher. In five minor league starts this season, he posted a 5.34 FIP with a strikeout rate of 18%. We rarely see a game in Pittsburgh have a total of 9.0 runs, which shows how the betting markets feel about these two pitchers. With Gant listed as an underdog, he provides more risk than upside.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gant in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Joe Musgrove
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000	Salary:		$8,000
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30
	2017	15	4.04	4.77	21.2%	6.1%	44.9%	30.2%	20.2%

Musgrove is making his first start of the season and his first start as a member of the Pirates. In 15 starts with the Astros in 2017, he posted a 4.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. He’s already made four rehab starts this season, so a pitch limit is unlikely. It doesn’t hurt to take a wait and see approach here, especially given the high total and the fact that there are 13 other games on the schedule. The bigger the slate, the fewer risks we need to take.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Musgrove in his first start back from injury.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals draw an intriguing matchup against Joe Musgrove. While having a right-handed heavy lineup isn’t great for most matchups against right-handed pitchers, Musgrove allowed a .351 xwOBA to righties last season. The Cardinals aren’t priority plays by any means, but they will garner very little ownership in tournaments. Matt Carpenter is viable in all formats, as his salary has yet to catch up to his recent production.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.379	0.327	0.209	41.0%	14.8%	27.4%	44.9%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,300
2	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.429	0.455	0.202	49.4%	13.5%	25.5%	25.0%	3B	$3,500	2B/3B	$3,600	3B	$7,500
3	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.439	0.428	0.167	38.5%	8.3%	12.2%	53.3%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,300
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.342	0.311	0.071	46.7%	5.4%	22.8%	48.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,400
5	Tyler O’Neill	RIGHT	0.461	0.552	0.476	46.7%	4.2%	29.2%	26.7%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,000
6	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.293	0.296	0.071	35.9%	9.5%	27.0%	38.5%	SS	$2,800	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,400
7	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.280	0.248	0.149	28.2%	7.3%	17.3%	50.7%	2B	$2,000	2B	$2,800	2B	$5,800
8	Francisco Pena	RIGHT	0.277	0.287	0.103	27.6%	2.4%	24.4%	51.7%	C	$2,100	C	$2,900	C	$5,400
9	John Gant	RIGHT	0.023	0.029	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	100.0%	P	$5,900	P	$4,500	P	$9,300

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna, Tyler O’Neill

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have a surprisingly high implied total for a game in PNC Park. In his career, John Gant has allowed a .344 wOBA to lefties and a .326 wOBA to righties. Pittsburgh isn’t thought of as a high-scoring offense, but they have some sneaky power against right-handed pitching. Their projected lineup has a .375 xwOBA and an ISO of .188 against righties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.302	0.340	0.057	40.4%	8.2%	13.1%	38.3%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.367	0.335	0.234	34.7%	12.6%	21.2%	31.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,400
3	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.432	0.539	0.229	41.8%	11.8%	16.8%	34.2%	C	$3,300	C	$3,600	C	$7,300
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.332	0.378	0.135	33.6%	10.1%	18.1%	49.1%	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,300
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.359	0.252	0.201	31.2%	5.5%	9.7%	27.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,700
6	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.395	0.471	0.183	36.2%	10.5%	16.5%	39.4%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,500
7	Austin Meadows	LEFT	0.491	0.435	0.300	55.6%	0.0%	10.0%	44.4%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,500
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.324	0.426	0.161	28.0%	7.6%	20.6%	37.6%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,600
9	Joe Musgrove	RIGHT								P	$5,500	P	$4,000	P	$8,000

Elite Plays – Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson, Colin Moran, Austin Meadows

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Toronto								Philadelphia
			Sam Gaviglio							Zach Eflin
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-115							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.251	0.350	33.3%	12.5%	12.5%	33.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.288	0.356	38.5%	13.0%	30.4%	16.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.235	0.238	28.6%	0.0%	40.0%	50.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.192	0.251	21.9%	6.7%	22.2%	25.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sam Gaviglio
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$9,900
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30
	2017	13	4.96	4.36	15.7%	8.3%	49.4%	31.5%	15.7%
	2018	1	2.80	0.93	29.3%	4.9%	42.3%	30.8%	19.2%
	L14	1	2.81	0.93	29.3%	4.9%	42.3%	30.8%	19.2%

Gaviglio made 13 major league starts a season ago and posted a 4.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He looked good in his five minor league starts earlier this season and has fared well in his three major league appearances. At this point, he’s still a wildcard. He comes into tonight’s game as a slight underdog against the Phillies. While there are some strikeouts in this lineup, Citizens Bank Park is routinely one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: For now, take a wait and see approach with Gaviglio.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zach Eflin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$15,300
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30
	2017	11	5.08	6.16	12.5%	4.3%	44.1%	33.3%	16.7%
	2018	3	4.18	1.56	25.0%	8.8%	23.3%	26.7%	20.0%
	L14	1	5.78	3.86	19.1%	14.3%	21.4%	21.4%	21.4%

Eflin has been serviceable for the Phillies this season, but let’s not forget how poorly his 2017 campaign went. He finished the year with a 5.08 SIERA and a strikeout rate of only 13%. The Blue Jays aren’t quite as potent on the road as they are at home, but are playing in a home run-friendly ballpark. Toronto’s projected lineup has a .342 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options for both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays are an intriguing low-owned stack in tournaments tonight. In his career, Zach Eflin has allowed a .378 wOBA to left-handed hitters, which brings Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak, and Yangervis Solarte into play. While he has been tougher on right-handed hitters, this is one of the best ballparks in baseball for home run production. Teoscar Hernandez has been terrific against right-handed pitching this season, boasting a .446 xwOBA and a .289 ISO.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.364	0.368	0.183	41.4%	18.8%	29.9%	34.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,500
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.314	0.288	0.228	35.7%	13.0%	26.1%	44.6%	3B	$4,300	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,000
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.404	0.386	0.200	36.6%	18.4%	24.0%	31.0%	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,400
4	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.446	0.410	0.289	45.1%	5.2%	20.6%	33.8%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,700
5	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.356	0.340	0.209	32.6%	7.9%	16.7%	38.9%	2B	$3,400	2B/3B	$3,900	2B	$7,700
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.375	0.250	0.189	35.2%	5.8%	17.4%	38.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900
7	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.319	0.330	0.217	33.9%	13.4%	24.7%	49.2%	C	$2,300	C	$3,100	C	$5,700
8	Gio Urshela	RIGHT	0.157	0.339	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	27.3%	25.0%	SS	$2,000	3B	$2,700	3B	$5,800
9	Sam Gaviglio	RIGHT								P	$6,000	P	$5,000	P	$9,900

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Teoscar Hernandez (Cash), Josh Donaldson, Yangervis Solarte

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies aren’t core plays in this slate, but they should get overlooked in tournaments. Most of the ownership will concentrate around the Yankees, Red Sox, and the two offenses in Coors Field. In his career, Sam Gaviglio has perfect symmetry with his splits, allowing a .343 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. With this being a home run-friendly ballpark, the lefties are the preferred targets, as Gaviglio has a 53% ground ball rate against righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.339	0.338	0.170	27.6%	13.4%	24.2%	43.6%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,400	2B	$8,400
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.389	0.319	0.210	35.4%	13.6%	29.9%	28.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,500
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.357	0.416	0.180	28.3%	9.5%	17.5%	46.5%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,400
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.400	0.466	0.242	36.9%	16.3%	13.6%	36.3%	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,700
5	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.323	0.211	0.183	23.3%	5.2%	17.2%	53.3%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,300
6	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.275	0.289	0.134	33.3%	4.6%	42.5%	55.6%	C	$2,200	C	$3,100	C	$5,600
7	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.360	0.431	0.150	28.6%	10.0%	26.7%	50.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000	LF	$5,600
8	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.295	0.196	0.126	26.0%	5.4%	24.1%	39.5%	SS	$2,300	3B/SS	$3,200	SS	$6,500
9	Zach Eflin	RIGHT	0.038	0.031	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	75.0%	100.0%	P	$8,000	P	$7,900	P	$15,300

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana (Cash), Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Boston
			Julio Teheran							Eduardo Rodriguez
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-185							10.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.323	0.340	40.6%	16.0%	18.9%	32.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.258	0.303	33.3%	6.1%	48.5%	33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.317	0.307	28.4%	5.9%	22.9%	40.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	0.293	29.9%	8.1%	24.3%	42.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Julio Teheran
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,900
	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30
	2017	32	4.89	4.49	18.6%	8.9%	40.0%	30.4%	21.1%
	2018	10	4.65	4.17	21.0%	10.7%	36.7%	34.0%	20.0%
	L14	3	4.90	5.29	16.7%	8.3%	36.5%	32.7%	26.9%

Teheran will have a few starts each season where he looks unhittable. The rest of the year, he tends to struggle, especially when facing a left-handed heavy lineup. The Red Sox may not be loaded with lefties, but they have enough to give Teheran fits. It doesn’t help that the game is being played in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Teheran is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Eduardo Rodriguez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,400
	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30
	2017	24	4.05	4.19	25.8%	8.6%	34.9%	30.8%	18.6%
	2018	9	3.42	4.13	28.2%	7.8%	41.9%	30.2%	16.3%
	L14	3	3.08	1.72	28.4%	4.5%	36.4%	29.6%	11.4%

Rodriguez has improved in nearly every facet of his game this season. He has a lower SIERA, a higher strikeout rate, and a lower walk rate. It’s tempting to fire him up as an SP2 tonight and I certainly will in tournaments, but he doesn’t come without some risk. The Braves’ offense has been firing on all cylinders this season. Their projected lineup has a .375 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 17% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez is way too cheap to fade completely. Fire him up in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves see a ballpark bump playing in Boston and they get to utilize the DH in this series. The issue tonight is their matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season. The one positive is that Rodriguez has a high fly ball rate. When you get the ball in the air in this ballpark, runs tend to be scored in bunches.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.396	0.345	0.407	41.7%	1.8%	12.5%	35.4%	2B	$4,600	2B	$5,300	2B	$9,800
2	Ronald Acuna	RIGHT	0.361	0.364	0.219	34.8%	8.3%	25.0%	47.8%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,000
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.472	0.475	0.316	47.8%	13.2%	17.6%	39.1%	1B	$4,600	1B	$5,200	1B	$10,100
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.345	0.368	0.169	34.6%	7.1%	14.3%	43.6%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,600
5	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.494	0.501	0.300	50.0%	33.3%	13.3%	50.0%	C	$2,900	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
6	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.409	0.290	0.231	41.7%	10.3%	6.9%	41.7%	C	$2,600	C	$3,200	C	$6,500
7	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.260	0.271	0.021	29.7%	7.8%	19.6%	44.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,400
8	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.287	0.390	0.080	40.0%	3.8%	19.2%	40.0%	3B	$2,600	3B/SS	$2,900	SS	$5,700
9	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.352	0.113	0.222	42.9%	5.3%	21.1%	38.5%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna, Tyler Flowers (DK), Kurt Suzuki (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox don’t have the best lineup to take advantage of Julio Teheran and his struggles against left-handed hitters. Let’s quickly take a look at his splits this season:

vs. LHB: .340 xwOBA, 41% hard contact rate, 16% walk rate
vs. RHB: .307 xwOBA, 28% hard contact rate, 6% walk rate

This doesn’t mean that we have to avoid the right-handed bats of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts, but the splits certainly favor the lefties. My plan is to include the righties as part of a full Red Sox stack, but only use the lefties as individual plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.527	0.465	0.362	50.0%	10.1%	12.8%	30.4%	OF	$5,400	OF	$5,900	RF	$10,900
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.371	0.396	0.219	27.5%	11.9%	12.6%	35.8%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,900	LF	$9,100
3	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.344	0.251	0.146	28.4%	7.6%	15.9%	47.7%	1B	$3,800	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,500
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.485	0.515	0.386	53.3%	10.1%	23.3%	43.8%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,200	RF	$9,800
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.408	0.364	0.263	38.8%	2.8%	18.9%	45.0%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,500
6	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.357	0.309	0.193	43.4%	8.7%	25.3%	41.8%	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,700
7	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT								2B	$3,000	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
8	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.320	0.227	0.115	33.8%	10.7%	25.9%	47.1%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,900
9	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.263	0.232	0.033	20.5%	3.1%	14.3%	44.2%	C	$2,100	C	$2,600	C	$4,500

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland (if he’s in the lineup)

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 25th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

LA Angels at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Toronto at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Atlanta at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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