MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-02 02:20:16

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Cleveland at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Detroit
			Carlos Carrasco							Matt Boyd
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-220							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.324	0.314	37.3%	7.5%	25.1%	43.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.308	0.302	25.0%	8.5%	15.6%	56.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.284	0.278	32.1%	5.0%	27.2%	48.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.361	0.328	35.3%	8.3%	19.0%	34.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Carlos Carrasco
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$12,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		1 of 4	Salary Rank:		1 of 4	Salary Rank:		of 4
	2016	25	3.44	3.32	25.0%	5.7%	48.5%	36.4%	16.0%
	2017	26	3.48	3.78	27.6%	6.3%	44.4%	31.0%	18.1%
	L30	6	3.42	4.50	28.2%	6.3%	46.2%	32.6%	20.7%

This is the first game of a doubleheader between the Indians and Tigers. With two early games on the schedule, we do have an early slate on tap. Carrasco has pitched well all season, posting a 3.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. For whatever reason, he loves to pitch on the road. In each of the last three seasons, his numbers have been significantly better in road starts than they have in home starts. He draws a favorable matchup today against a right-handed heavy Tigers’ offense that just traded away Justin Upton.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is clearly the top pitching option in the two-game early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Boyd
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 4	Salary Rank:		4 of 4	Salary Rank:		of 4
	2016	18	4.38	4.53	19.9%	7.0%	38.1%	30.0%	19.2%
	2017	19	5.05	6.13	17.6%	9.3%	38.5%	36.7%	21.2%
	L30	5	4.93	8.75	22.7%	11.8%	25.0%	35.1%	23.4%

Boyd is one of my favorite pitchers to stack against, so there are very few times during the season when he actually ends up being on my radar as a viable option. Today is not the exception. On the season, he has a 5.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17% and a hard contact rate (37%) that is nearly as high as his ground ball rate (39%). To make matters worse, he is facing an Indians’ offense that is ranked tenth in team wOBA and third in strikeout rate against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Boyd is an easy fade once again. We never want to target pitchers with a low floor and a low ceiling.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians appear to be the offense to load up on here in the early slate. They draw a terrific matchup against Matt Boyd, who has allowed .328 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. The one through four stack here is viable in both cash games and tournaments and we can add the likes of Jay Bruce and Carlos Santana into the fold as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.368	0.355	0.208	43.0%	7.5%	14.1%	39.5%	SS	$4,300	SS	$5,400	N/A	N/A
2	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.414	0.375	0.236	32.9%	13.6%	18.4%	41.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.343	0.334	0.184	31.6%	7.4%	12.2%	42.4%	2B	$3,400	2B/3B	$5,300	N/A	N/A
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.353	0.378	0.180	35.4%	20.0%	22.8%	44.4%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.322	0.311	0.222	37.8%	7.5%	25.2%	29.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
6	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.317	0.336	0.175	32.7%	12.2%	9.2%	51.0%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
7	Roberto Perez	RIGHT	0.292	0.298	0.167	32.4%	15.2%	28.8%	47.2%	C	$2,700	C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Bradley Zimmer	LEFT	0.285	0.271	0.067	22.7%	6.1%	24.2%	61.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Giovanny Urshela	RIGHT	0.221	0.235	0.049	25.7%	2.4%	14.3%	42.9%	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,800	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Austin Jackson, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce, Carlos Santana

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers draw the worst matchup in the early slate and clearly have nothing to play for at this point. Justin Upton has been their best hitter by far this season and in case you missed it, they shipped him off to Los Angeles to play with Mike Trout. I am very bearish on this offense for the rest of the season and the Tigers’ fade will start today against Carlos Carrasco. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, he has held right-handed hitters to a .278 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.295	0.308	0.125	34.7%	9.1%	13.4%	34.7%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Alex Presley	LEFT	0.321	0.308	0.083	34.0%	6.8%	18.9%	47.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.300	0.381	0.157	44.8%	9.2%	20.7%	40.7%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.295	0.335	0.149	45.3%	7.3%	25.8%	38.8%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.333	0.312	0.145	36.0%	7.1%	23.0%	48.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.275	0.313	0.118	40.0%	6.7%	24.9%	38.7%	C	$2,400	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.380	0.342	0.161	41.7%	5.8%	21.7%	50.0%	C	$2,100	1B/C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Andrew Romine	LEFT	0.288	0.293	0.118	26.1%	7.3%	18.8%	43.9%	OF	$2,000	2B/OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.285	0.256	0.124	29.8%	4.1%	14.9%	54.2%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Atlanta at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Chicago Cubs
			Mike Foltynewicz							John Lackey
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-200							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.355	0.333	33.4%	9.3%	20.1%	31.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.339	0.348	33.5%	9.3%	18.5%	42.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.322	0.302	25.1%	6.2%	21.5%	48.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.286	0.302	34.2%	5.5%	25.3%	40.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Foltynewicz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		3 of 4	Salary Rank:		3 of 4	Salary Rank:		of 4
	2016	22	4.13	4.31	21.1%	6.7%	41.2%	29.8%	20.4%
	2017	25	4.56	4.84	20.9%	8.7%	38.8%	28.4%	15.8%
	L30	5	4.57	8.61	22.6%	10.4%	38.9%	32.0%	18.7%

Foltynewicz isn’t a bad pitcher by any means, but he’s having a down year overall. In 25 starts, he has a 4.56 SIERA with an average strikeout rate and a slightly above-average walk rate. While he does benefit from the wind blowing in today at Wrigley, it’s not enough to overcome his matchup. Over the last month of play, no team in baseball has a higher wOBA or wRC+ than the Cubs.

Quick Breakdown: As a massive underdog, Foltynewicz is an easy fade in the early two-game slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
John Lackey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 4	Salary Rank:		2 of 4	Salary Rank:		of 4
	2016	29	3.83	3.35	24.1%	7.1%	41.0%	34.4%	16.2%
	2017	25	4.44	4.98	20.4%	7.3%	42.1%	34.0%	15.6%
	L30	5	4.22	5.47	23.3%	7.8%	36.7%	32.5%	16.3%

Lackey is the clear number two in the early slate. He’s typically not a guy that we target in DFS (at least not this season), but when there are only two games in a slate, we don’t have as many choices. He draws a favorable matchup against the Braves, who are ranked in the bottom ten in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He benefits from the wind blowing in and from having the hottest offense in baseball at his back.

Quick Breakdown: It will be super chalky in this small slate, but Carrasco should be your SP1 and Lackey should be your SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have a low implied total, their best hitter is dealing with a wrist injury, and the wind is blowing in from right field at 14 MPH. There are a lot of things working against the Braves in this one. From a splits perspective, John Lackey has struggled with batters from the left side of the plate. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .348 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.323	0.279	0.106	25.1%	6.3%	14.5%	42.9%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.325	0.305	0.151	26.9%	3.7%	11.1%	51.4%	3B	$3,500	2B/3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.454	0.434	0.319	34.4%	13.9%	15.0%	35.5%	1B	$4,100	1B/3B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.326	0.336	0.115	35.4%	11.0%	17.4%	45.8%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.329	0.311	0.210	32.6%	6.2%	15.7%	36.9%	C	$3,100	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.368	0.354	0.269	40.1%	6.7%	23.1%	36.9%	OF	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.312	0.280	0.156	39.2%	5.7%	20.0%	40.0%	2B	$3,200	2B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.258	0.294	0.090	29.7%	10.6%	22.3%	49.3%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Mike Foltynewicz	RIGHT	0.058	0.098	0.000	11.8%	0.0%	51.4%	45.5%	P	$6,700	P	$6,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are large favorites today against Mike Foltynewicz, but the wind is clearly affecting this total (7.5 runs). The good news is that the Cubs don’t necessarily need home runs to put up big games. They have been red hot at the plate and I don’t see them slowing down in this matchup. Over the last two seasons, Foltynewicz has allowed a .333 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.333	0.313	0.105	26.9%	9.1%	19.8%	47.9%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.329	0.358	0.257	38.7%	11.5%	29.2%	38.6%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,100	N/A	N/A
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.392	0.343	0.250	30.8%	11.8%	19.9%	36.5%	3B	$4,400	3B	$5,200	N/A	N/A
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.382	0.395	0.243	33.0%	13.9%	12.4%	39.1%	1B	$4,900	1B	$5,700	N/A	N/A
5	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.367	0.355	0.309	33.6%	11.5%	29.2%	40.8%	2B	$3,200	2B/OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
6	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.307	0.319	0.131	27.2%	8.8%	11.7%	48.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.299	0.278	0.186	31.2%	5.5%	30.5%	48.3%	SS	$3,500	2B/SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Rene Rivera	RIGHT	0.264	0.313	0.108	31.7%	5.9%	25.7%	42.0%	C	$2,200	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	John Lackey	RIGHT	0.175	0.187	0.030	13.6%	5.4%	35.1%	75.0%	P	$7,400	P	$9,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Jon Jay, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Boston								NY Yankees
			Doug Fister							Sonny Gray
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-163							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.395	0.367	38.2%	9.5%	14.5%	40.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.295	0.312	28.0%	7.3%	20.3%	53.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.266	0.292	25.3%	7.6%	17.3%	51.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.330	0.319	33.9%	8.9%	20.7%	55.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Doug Fister
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$14,700
	Salary Rank:		12 of 25	Salary Rank:		14 of 25	Salary Rank:		14 of 25
	2016	32	4.97	4.64	14.8%	8.0%	45.3%	31.5%	19.7%
	2017	9	4.78	4.53	19.8%	10.5%	47.4%	32.8%	16.4%
	L30	4	3.92	3.71	23.2%	7.4%	53.4%	29.7%	13.5%

Fister has been in decent form recently, but he’s not a pitcher that we should trust in the long run (or in a 13 game slate). He checks into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog against the Yankees with the total set at 9.0 runs. The low strikeout rate, the high walk rate, and the high hard contact rate are all concerning. Add in a matchup against one of the best offenses in baseball and he becomes an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Fister has more downside than upside tonight against the Yankees.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sonny Gray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$17,200
	Salary Rank:		3 of 25	Salary Rank:		7 of 25	Salary Rank:		7 of 25
	2016	22	4.32	5.69	18.2%	8.1%	53.9%	33.6%	16.1%
	2017	21	3.95	3.26	22.8%	8.2%	54.6%	28.3%	17.5%
	L30	5	4.69	2.70	20.5%	10.2%	48.2%	27.9%	19.8%

CC Sabathia help carried me to a big night (Kendrys Morales did some heavy lifting as well) and for that, I will forever be grateful.

Gray will be on the mound for the Yankees tonight. He hasn’t been in the best of form recently (at least in terms of his advanced stats), posting a 4.69 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 10%. He hasn’t had much success against the Red Sox in his career and he’s pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark. This isn’t a slate that is loaded with pitching options, but we can find ones in better matchups. Boston has the third lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Gray is probably a top five pitching option in this slate, but I’m worried about his form and strikeout potential in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Sonny Gray isn’t on my radar for tonight’s slate, but I’m not going to be targeting the Red Sox offense either. Since the start of last season, Gray has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA. He has an elite ground ball rate and we know the Red Sox have struggled with power this season. Games between these two teams are typically high scoring, but I will be watching this one from the sidelines.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.349	0.267	0.146	26.0%	2.5%	11.1%	53.8%	2B	$3,300	2B/3B	$4,300	3B	$8,400
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.330	0.313	0.097	26.5%	8.7%	9.6%	48.6%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
3	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.350	0.340	0.186	37.3%	9.6%	16.5%	36.7%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
4	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.327	0.325	0.181	35.3%	9.3%	11.4%	39.9%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,000	RF	$9,600
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.324	0.354	0.170	34.8%	8.7%	19.9%	41.8%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,800
6	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.325	0.269	0.144	30.3%	7.6%	18.8%	47.5%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,400
7	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.338	0.381	0.206	41.0%	10.1%	21.7%	39.6%	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
8	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.349	0.330	0.266	37.7%	10.2%	20.5%	49.2%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,500
9	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.283	0.282	0.138	33.9%	7.8%	24.0%	35.9%	C	$2,600	C	$2,700	C	$5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees have a chance to pull within three and a half games of the Red Sox with a win tonight. They draw an excellent matchup against Doug Fister, who is a low-strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Since the beginning of last season, Fister has allowed a .367 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. He’s been tougher on righties, but I wouldn’t rule out Gary Sanchez. Not only does he have rare power for a catcher, but he should see plenty of RBI opportunities.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.361	0.340	0.203	34.0%	11.8%	18.0%	41.2%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
2	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.359	0.332	0.220	29.8%	15.6%	17.0%	42.8%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,100
3	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.377	0.371	0.256	35.8%	7.4%	23.7%	43.5%	C	$3,600	C	$4,600	C	$8,800
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.370	0.292	0.233	27.2%	4.4%	12.2%	39.2%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,800
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.353	0.313	0.183	31.7%	3.8%	19.2%	48.5%	2B	$2,800	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,800
6	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.417	0.417	0.309	43.6%	15.1%	31.9%	35.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,300
7	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.238	0.325	0.103	41.0%	14.3%	27.1%	31.6%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,000	1B	$6,000
8	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.322	0.340	0.178	29.3%	13.2%	22.0%	38.3%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,600
9	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.341	0.331	0.157	26.0%	10.3%	13.8%	44.6%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius, Chase Headley, Greg Bird

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Pittsburgh
			Luis Castillo							Gerrit Cole
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-130							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.262	0.244	29.3%	9.3%	23.8%	54.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.355	0.326	37.2%	6.1%	22.6%	41.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.282	28.6%	10.4%	28.8%	60.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.289	0.299	25.6%	6.5%	19.4%	50.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Castillo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$18,300
	Salary Rank:		8 of 25	Salary Rank:		4 of 25	Salary Rank:		4 of 25

	2017	13	3.87	3.26	26.4%	9.9%	57.0%	28.9%	22.3%
	L30	5	3.98	2.76	26.9%	10.9%	55.9%	32.4%	23.9%

Castillo has surpassed all expectations in his rookie season. In 13 starts, he has a 3.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a ground ball rate of 57%. He’s done an excellent job of inducing soft and medium contact and we finally have a game in Pittsburgh with a low total. Castillo may be an underdog, but it’s not by much, which shows how much respect Vegas has for him and the Reds. The only downside in this matchup is that the Pirates have the second lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Castillo is affordable, he’s pitching in a good ballpark, and he should get overlooked since he’s pitching on the road.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gerrit Cole
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$11,100	Salary:		$21,600
	Salary Rank:		2 of 25	Salary Rank:		3 of 25	Salary Rank:		3 of 25
	2016	21	4.24	3.88	19.4%	7.1%	45.6%	30.1%	21.3%
	2017	27	3.99	3.99	22.0%	5.7%	46.3%	31.5%	24.6%
	L30	5	3.73	4.05	24.5%	5.0%	42.6%	32.3%	27.1%

Cole has been sharp in his last five starts, posting a 3.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 5%. He has fared well against the Reds in his career, holding their current roster to a .295 wOBA with 31 strikeouts in 121 at bats. I expect him to be one of the highest owned pitchers in the slate and rightly so. While the Reds have been tough on right-handed pitching, Cole has the talent to overwhelm any opponent, especially in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Castillo is a viable SP2 in tournaments, while Cole is viable as an SP1 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

This game has the second lowest total (7.5 runs) in the entire slate. I’m not particularly interested in either offense. Gerrit Cole comes into this start in good form and he has an above-average strikeout rate this season. He also induces a lot of soft contact. He has struggled a bit against left-handed hitters in his career, but Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Scott Schebler are tournament fliers at best.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.291	0.255	0.086	16.0%	8.8%	21.0%	45.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.378	0.320	0.229	29.9%	12.7%	16.4%	38.9%	SS	$3,400	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,800
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.429	0.430	0.270	37.8%	18.4%	11.5%	36.7%	1B	$4,300	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,300
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.329	0.294	0.246	33.3%	5.0%	27.0%	30.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,800
5	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.388	0.335	0.267	38.4%	7.3%	21.3%	41.4%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.366	0.350	0.221	31.3%	13.3%	22.2%	39.8%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,100
7	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.344	0.369	0.271	40.1%	9.2%	22.0%	42.6%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,800
8	Stuart Turner	RIGHT	0.255	0.215	0.103	33.3%	8.8%	29.4%	25.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,000	C	$4,000
9	Luis Castillo	RIGHT	0.044	0.122	0.000	6.3%	0.0%	30.4%	66.7%	P	$8,100	P	$9,500	P	$18,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

A matchup against a rookie pitcher on the road is usually one that we look to exploit, but that’s not the case tonight. Luis Castillo looks like he belongs in the majors. He has an above-average strikeout rate and an elite ground ball rate, which is a lethal combination. The sample size is small, but Castillo has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.343	0.330	0.123	26.3%	5.6%	17.9%	47.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.325	0.314	0.150	33.0%	4.5%	17.1%	34.7%	2B	$3,200	2B/3B	$3,400	2B	$6,600
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.337	0.343	0.156	32.7%	10.7%	18.4%	43.1%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.365	0.346	0.237	34.9%	11.2%	18.5%	50.2%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,600
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.310	0.336	0.103	32.3%	12.0%	22.9%	55.9%	3B	$2,500	3B	$2,600	3B	$5,200
6	John Jaso	LEFT	0.319	0.346	0.188	35.6%	12.6%	21.2%	32.2%	1B	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,000	1B	$6,000
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.311	0.305	0.145	28.3%	9.7%	15.7%	47.4%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,900
8	Chris Stewart	RIGHT	0.232	0.260	0.033	30.3%	5.2%	15.5%	35.1%	C	$2,000	C	$2,000	C	$4,000
9	Gerrit Cole	RIGHT	0.186	0.135	0.081	9.7%	2.2%	30.4%	71.4%	P	$9,100	P	$11,100	P	$21,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Toronto								Baltimore
			Joe Biagini							Kevin Gausman
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-165							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.321	0.280	31.2%	7.2%	24.1%	55.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.323	0.323	32.5%	8.5%	21.7%	37.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.290	0.291	25.0%	7.3%	17.7%	54.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.349	0.336	32.2%	7.1%	22.1%	46.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Joe Biagini
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:		$9,600
	Salary Rank:		25 of 25	Salary Rank:		25 of 25	Salary Rank:		26 of 25
	2016	0	3.45	3.06	21.0%	6.4%	52.2%	23.0%	17.7%
	2017	12	4.13	5.40	19.7%	8.2%	56.0%	31.1%	18.2%
	L30	1	4.97	11.25	19.2%	11.5%	44.4%	27.8%	16.7%

Biagini had some decent success earlier this season, but he has recently struggled out of the bullpen and in his last start. Over the last 30 days, he has a 4.48 SIERA (16.20 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate of 10%. He’s a big underdog tonight against the Orioles, who have hit the second most home runs in baseball this season. The positive is that Baltimore has a right-handed heavy lineup and Biagini has been tough on righties in his career. Unfortunately, that’s not enough to make up for his other shortcomings.

Quick Breakdown: Tough matchup, tough ballpark. Biagini is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$16,800
	Salary Rank:		4 of 25	Salary Rank:		8 of 25	Salary Rank:		8 of 25
	2016	30	3.81	3.61	23.0%	6.2%	44.1%	31.1%	18.3%
	2017	28	4.63	4.98	20.7%	9.3%	41.8%	33.7%	18.3%
	L30	5	4.51	3.48	22.1%	8.7%	35.2%	31.8%	18.2%

Gausman has pitched significantly better since the All-Star break, but his form isn’t quite as good as many are making it out to be. He may have a 2.72 ERA in his last six starts, but he owns a 4.39 SIERA during that stretch. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have any interest in Gausman tonight though. He draws a decent matchup against the Blue Jays, whose lineup doesn’t look great at this point in the season (especially if Justin Smoak is forced to miss another game).

Quick Breakdown: Gausman provides nice upside at his price point. He’s viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Kendrys Morales hit not one, not two, but three home runs last night in this ballpark. The Orioles just kept pitching to him. You would think after the second home run they would tread lightly. Toronto draws a mediocre matchup tonight against Kevin Gausman, who has neutral splits in the last two seasons. During that stretch, he has allowed a .323 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .337 xwOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.348	0.320	0.184	34.0%	9.1%	17.8%	41.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,900	1B	$5,600
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.387	0.375	0.263	33.3%	15.1%	23.9%	40.7%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,400
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.312	0.327	0.178	34.4%	13.0%	22.7%	34.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,800
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.368	0.389	0.283	41.6%	9.9%	23.1%	34.9%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,000
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.294	0.357	0.187	37.4%	7.4%	22.0%	48.5%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,900
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.277	0.295	0.130	25.9%	5.1%	15.6%	45.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400
7	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.297	0.283	0.157	33.3%	9.8%	22.2%	40.2%	C	$2,300	C	$3,200	C	$6,300
8	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.267	0.274	0.126	29.3%	7.1%	17.9%	45.2%	SS	$2,400	2B/SS	$2,800	2B	$5,600
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.227	0.256	0.083	20.2%	1.9%	14.8%	48.1%	2B	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,000	2B	$3,900

Elite Plays – Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Steve Pearce, Justin Smoak (if active)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

On paper, the Orioles’ matchup against Joe Biagini doesn’t look all that enticing. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA in the last two seasons. I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into the splits though, as he’s been in bad form recently. The Orioles have one of the highest implied totals in the slate and we know they can put runs on the board quickly. The biggest downside here is Biagini’s 57% ground ball rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.343	0.312	0.187	41.9%	4.9%	28.9%	48.1%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,100
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.334	0.361	0.219	36.5%	7.6%	16.0%	42.5%	3B	$4,200	3B	$5,300	3B	$10,400
3	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.369	0.317	0.214	33.1%	4.3%	20.4%	41.0%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,600	2B	$9,000
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.335	0.313	0.193	31.4%	3.3%	18.0%	44.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,400
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.387	0.359	0.269	34.9%	7.1%	22.7%	52.4%	OF	$3,600	1B/OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,100
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.334	0.340	0.264	45.8%	12.5%	34.9%	34.8%	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,500
7	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.302	0.317	0.176	31.8%	8.2%	23.5%	42.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,600
8	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.305	0.274	0.145	26.8%	3.5%	25.0%	45.9%	C	$2,300	C	$3,400	C	$6,800
9	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.345	0.357	0.183	36.5%	10.1%	19.9%	41.8%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,800

MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 1st

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Stackability Rating System:

Cleveland at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Austin Jackson, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce, Carlos Santana

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Atlanta at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jon Jay, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius, Chase Headley, Greg Bird

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Steve Pearce, Justin Smoak (if active)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Adam Jones

Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini, Chris Davis, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author