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MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-03 02:59:10

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

San Francisco Chicago Cubs
sanfranciscomlb Albert Suarez cubsmlb Jon Lester
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -217 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.349 2 28.7% 12.8% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.279 7 34.7% 27.9%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.325 5 31.7% 21.6% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.283 28 27.0% 24.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Albert Suarez
albert-suarez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,200 Salary:
FPPG: 15.5 FPPG:
Pitcher Rating: 51.4 Pitcher Rank: 22
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 1 76.0 4.11 6.23 25.0% 10.0% 11.8% 38.5% 38.5% 15.4%
2016 7 85.6 4.35 4.35 17.6% 7.4% 8.5% 47.6% 31.4% 30.3%

Home:—ERA: 3.34 — K%: 17.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.280
Away:—ERA: 5.34 — K%: 18.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.389

We have one early game on the schedule today between the Giants and Cubs. This game is not included on DraftKings, which is why you won’t see any prices listed. Suarez has been a mediocre pitcher in his seven starts this season, posting a 4.35 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.6% and a walk rate of 7.4%. He comes into the game as a large underdog against the Cubs, who are a top five offense against right-handed pitching. There are more reasons to fade Suarez than to play him.

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,700 Salary:
FPPG: 36.4 FPPG:
Pitcher Rating: 86.4 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 102.8 3.09 1.71 29.4% 5.9% 9.1% 41.3% 30.7% 32.5%
2016 26 98.0 3.65 2.70 25.2% 7.1% 10.1% 45.5% 33.4% 28.3%
2015 32 99.5 3.19 3.34 25.0% 5.7% 10.4% 48.9% 29.3% 29.0%

Home:—ERA: 2.98 — K%: 25.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.284
Away:—ERA: 3.16 — K%: 24.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.279

Lester has been terrific in his last five starts, posting a 3.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.4%. He is primarily a ground ball pitcher that uses good command and soft contact to limit the damage against him. He is a sizable favorite against the Giants, who are ranked 19th in team wOBA and 25th in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. If you are playing the all-day slate on FanDuel and want some action in this game, Lester is a viable option in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants don’t have a high strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, but they are still a below-average offense against left-handed pitching. They come into today’s game with the second lowest run projection in the slate, which makes them an easy offense to avoid. In the last two seasons, Jon Lester has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.264 0.069 20.8% 0.469 OF $2,800
2 Angel Pagan SWITCH 0.316 0.088 27.0% 0.301 OF $3,100
3 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.372 0.191 38.3% 0.343 C $3,500
4 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.322 0.214 33.0% 0.381 OF $3,000
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.312 0.142 36.2% 0.375 SS $2,700
6 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.363 0.199 34.9% 0.280 1B $3,000
7 Joe Panik LEFT 0.313 0.093 24.0% 0.481 2B $2,900
8 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.306 0.192 30.1% 0.345 3B $3,200
9 Albert Suarez RIGHT 0.351 0.000 0.0% 1.240 P $6,200
Team Averages — 0.324 0.132 27.1% 0.468 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are ranked second in team wOBA over the last month of play. Their prowess at the plate should continue today against Albert Suarez, who has allowed a .349 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .325 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. With the fifth highest run projection in the slate, the Cubs’ offense can be stacked in both cash games and GPPs.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.333 0.167 27.6% 0.326 OF $3,600
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.391 0.239 39.9% 0.610 3B $4,200
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.394 0.262 36.1% 0.337 1B $3,900
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.340 0.167 31.3% 0.337 2B $3,200
5 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.326 0.136 29.4% 0.363 OF $2,900
6 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.321 0.155 29.2% 0.348 SS $3,200
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.291 0.143 26.7% 0.246 SS $2,800
8 David Ross RIGHT 0.261 0.128 30.4% 0.244 C $2,200
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.101 0.011 22.2% 0.000 P $10,700
Team Averages — 0.306 0.156 30.3% 0.312 — — — —

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Addison Russell

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta Philadelphia
atlantamlb Joel De La Cruz philadelphiamlb Jeremy Hellickson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI -143 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.334 4 34.5% 12.4% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.340 19 31.6% 18.3%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.351 4 32.6% 11.9% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.310 26 29.9% 21.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Joel De La Cruz
joel-de-la-cruz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,400 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 9.9 FPPG: 4.6
Pitcher Rating: 35.7 Pitcher Rank: 28
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 83.2 5.48 5.47 12.5% 9.8% 8.9% 46.4% 33.3% 31.4%
2016 8 97.1 5.24 4.66 12.2% 7.5% 8.1% 42.4% 34.5% 33.5%

Home:—ERA: 3.80 — K%: 9.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.303
Away:—ERA: 5.47 — K%: 14.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.376

De La Cruz may have a cool last name, but he doesn’t have a great outlook as a major league pitcher. He hasn’t shown much upside in the minors and his first eight major league starts haven’t been impressive. He currently owns a 5.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12.2%. He gives up a fair amount of hard contact and he is pitching on the road. While a matchup against the Phillies is generally a favorable one, De La Cruz is a sizable underdog in this spot.

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $4,500
FPPG: 30.0 FPPG: 15.7
Pitcher Rating: 67.2 Pitcher Rank: 10
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 92.5 4.07 4.37 23.2% 7.4% 11.9% 32.8% 42.2% 24.2%
2016 26 92.2 4.07 3.80 20.8% 5.7% 11.4% 39.0% 35.9% 27.0%
2015 27 91.8 4.14 4.62 19.0% 6.8% 10.3% 42.4% 36.5% 34.3%

Home:—ERA: 3.77 — K%: 21.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.321
Away:—ERA: 4.63 — K%: 18.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.326

Hellickson got off to a hot start this season, but has cooled off a bit since. He now owns a 4.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.8%. He gives up a lot of fly balls, but he has done a great job of limiting hard contact against him this season. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable favorite against the Braves, who are ranked 26th in team wOBA and 29th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. I’ve been off of Hellickson for quite some time, but certainly don’t mind using him in tournaments or as an SP2 on DraftKings ($4,500) tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have been one of the worst offenses in baseball this season, but they have been much better over the last month of play (.329 team wOBA). They draw a mediocre matchup against Jeremy Hellickson, who has allowed a .340 wOBA and a hard contact rate of 31.6% to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Freddie Freeman is a strong play here, but with first base being such a deep position, he is best suited as a GPP play.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.340 0.117 28.2% 0.448 OF $3,100 OF $4,800
2 Adonis Garcia RIGHT 0.303 0.164 31.3% 0.339 3B $2,800 3B $4,700
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.393 0.258 41.0% 0.423 1B $3,800 1B $5,500
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.307 0.179 39.2% 0.307 OF $3,400 OF $4,500
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.340 0.113 29.9% 0.313 OF $2,700 OF $4,600
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.305 0.136 35.2% 0.429 C $2,800 C $4,600
7 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.316 0.117 25.0% 0.428 2B $2,700 2B/OF $4,500
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.266 0.053 32.3% 0.248 SS $2,600 SS $3,300
9 Joel De La Cruz RIGHT 0.195 0.000 0.0% 0.219 P $5,400 P $4,000
Team Averages — 0.307 0.126 29.1% 0.350 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

The Phillies let us down last time there were in a favorable spot like this (vs. James Shields), but it’s hard to overlook the fact that they have the ninth highest run projection in the slate, despite being one of the worst offenses in baseball. This lineup is loaded with value tonight against Joel De La Cruz, who has allowed a .334 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .351 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco are both min-salary on DraftKings.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.309 0.105 26.3% 0.332 2B $2,900 2B $4,700
2 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.347 0.145 29.8% 0.267 OF $2,400 OF $2,000
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.317 0.181 27.8% 0.244 3B $2,500 3B $2,000
4 Ryan Howard LEFT 0.326 0.251 42.8% 0.302 1B $2,600 1B $4,300
5 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.292 0.147 29.8% 0.175 C $2,600 C $3,600
6 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.336 0.206 32.8% 0.250 OF $2,400 OF $4,000
7 Jimmy Paredes SWITCH 0.318 0.171 31.5% 0.194 OF $2,100 OF $2,900
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.293 0.136 28.1% 0.396 SS $2,900 SS $2,000
9 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.203 0.017 2.2% 0.219 P $7,300 P $4,500
Team Averages — 0.305 0.151 27.9% 0.264 — — — —

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Ryan Howard (FD)

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez (FD), Cameron Rupp

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Milwaukee Pittsburgh
milwaukeemlb Junior Guerra pittsburghmlb Jameson Taillon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT -170 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.283 4 38.7% 21.0% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.306 4 30.5% 18.2%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.267 6 29.6% 20.5% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.290 6 35.6% 23.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Junior Guerra
junior-guerra-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $9,000
FPPG: 33.6 FPPG: 18.1
Pitcher Rating: 56.3 Pitcher Rank: 19
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 1 89.0 4.83 9.00 22.7% 13.6% 9.0% 42.9% 35.7% 21.4%
2016 17 96.2 4.32 2.93 20.9% 8.6% 10.9% 46.1% 35.6% 34.1%
2015 0 0.0 3.28 6.75 16.7% 5.6% 10.6% 57.1% 21.4% 21.4%

Home:—ERA: 2.23 — K%: 19.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.263
Away:—ERA: 4.09 — K%: 22.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.288

Guerra is having a solid season overall, posting a 2.93 ERA (4.32 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 20.9%. He generates a healthy number of swings and misses and he induces a decent number of ground balls. Unfortunately, he plays for the Brewers and is typically an underdog when he takes the mound. I don’t mind the matchup against the Pirates, but it’s hard to justify paying that much for a pitcher that is a large underdog on the road.

Jameson Taillon
jameson-taillon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $8,400
FPPG: 28.2 FPPG: 15.5
Pitcher Rating: 82.1 Pitcher Rank: 6
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 90.0 3.70 3.19 21.1% 5.7% 8.7% 52.3% 26.1% 28.9%
2016 13 86.4 3.49 3.39 20.5% 3.9% 8.3% 53.7% 24.7% 32.8%

Home:—ERA: 2.86 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.280
Away:—ERA: 4.09 — K%: 22.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.322

Taillon has pitched well in his rookie season. In 13 starts, he has a 3.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.5% and a walk rate of 3.9%. If you look at his splits above, you will see that he has had more success at home than on the road, which makes sense given the fact that PNC Park is a pitcher’s ballpark. The only knock on Taillon is that he typically doesn’t pitch deep into games, which does limit his upside a bit. The good news is that he gets to face a strikeout-happy Brewers’ offense that is ranked dead last in k-rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers are a tough offense to trust in general, especially when they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. They come into tonight’s game with the sixth lowest run projection in the slate. Their matchup against Jameson Taillon is less than appealing, as he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.338 0.121 32.0% 0.357 3B $3,700 3B/SS $4,100
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.304 0.127 25.5% 0.234 2B $3,100 2B $2,800
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.359 0.215 33.7% 0.280 OF $3,800 OF $4,000
4 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.285 0.106 28.6% 0.338 OF $3,000 3B/OF $4,100
5 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.319 0.236 38.0% 0.378 1B $3,300 1B $3,200
6 Kirk Nieuwenhuis LEFT 0.321 0.196 39.3% 0.391 OF $2,500 OF $3,600
7 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.206 0.107 25.0% 0.309 SS $2,700 SS $2,900
8 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.262 0.101 29.0% 0.246 C $2,600 C $2,400
9 Junior Guerra RIGHT 0.237 0.050 31.3% P $8,000 P $9,000
Team Averages — 0.292 0.140 31.4% 0.317 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are ranked 21st in team wOBA and 27th in team ISO against right-handed pitching. They also draw a fairly difficult matchup against Junior Guerra, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA. I know that the Pirates are playing at home, but their implied team total seems a bit high. Their numbers against righties this season aren’t exactly a ringing endorsement in a full slate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.291 0.097 25.8% 0.269 2B $3,000 2B $3,100
2 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.465 0.258 42.9% 0.364 1B $2,700 1B $3,000
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.352 0.180 37.8% 0.286 OF $3,300 OF $3,600
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.336 0.176 33.4% 0.398 OF $3,600 OF $5,200
5 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.348 0.152 32.5% 0.281 OF $3,700 OF $4,900
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.314 0.074 27.1% 0.215 C $2,800 C $2,400
7 David Freese RIGHT 0.323 0.140 32.5% 0.235 3B $2,800 1B/3B $2,800
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.274 0.086 24.7% 0.321 SS $2,600 SS $2,900
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.044 0.000 10.0% 0.000 P $7,400 P $8,400
Team Averages — 0.305 0.129 29.6% 0.263 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

NY Yankees Baltimore
nyyankeesmlb Chad Green baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL -128 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.421 8 37.9% 26.7% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.308 6 28.9% 19.1%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.273 3 35.4% 26.0% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.345 7 28.0% 25.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chad Green
chad-green-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,600
FPPG: 22.1 FPPG: 11.8
Pitcher Rating: 63.1 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 94.0 3.90 3.54 25.3% 8.1% 11.4% 33.9% 44.6% 29.8%
2016 7 92.7 3.49 4.09 26.3% 7.0% 12.4% 42.0% 37.0% 36.6%

Home:—ERA: 3.15 — K%: 23.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.359
Away:—ERA: 4.88 — K%: 28.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.332

Green has been sharp in his last four starts, posting a 3.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.3%. He draws a boom or bust matchup tonight against the Orioles, who are ranked third in team wOBA and 20th in team K% against right-handed pitching this season. Green has some appeal as a deep tournament play, but he is a small underdog in a game that features an over/under of 9.0 runs. If you really need a cheap SP2 on DraftKings, I’d rather go with Jeremy Hellickson against the Braves.

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $4,700
FPPG: 15.3 FPPG: 7.7
Pitcher Rating: 57.1 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 90.8 4.36 4.09 22.5% 9.4% 10.5% 39.1% 44.6% 25.0%
2016 9 90.1 4.12 3.71 22.0% 8.0% 10.7% 34.8% 44.9% 28.5%

Home:—ERA: 3.04 — K%: 22.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.299
Away:—ERA: 4.54 — K%: 21.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.356

Bundy has struggled on the road this season, but he has been great at Camden Yards. He owns a 3.04 ERA with a strikeout rate of 22.2% at home this season. The main cause for concern tonight is his matchup against the red-hot Yankees. This is an important series for both teams and given the track record of AL East games, we can expect a lot of runs to be scored. I prefer Bundy over Chad Green, but will likely be fading both in what I expect to be a shootout.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees have the fifth highest team wOBA over the last month of play. They draw a decent matchup against rookie Dylan Bundy and they get to face him in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. The sample size is small, but Bundy has some serious reverse-splits this season – allowing a .308 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .345 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.324 0.135 27.6% 0.278 OF $3,400 OF $4,600
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.310 0.106 24.9% 0.343 OF $3,200 OF $5,200
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.564 0.476 45.5% 0.545 C $4,000 C $5,300
4 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.341 0.254 36.0% 0.309 1B $2,700 1B $3,800
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.313 0.149 24.4% 0.328 SS $3,100 SS $4,500
6 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.300 0.141 26.4% 0.396 2B $3,200 2B $4,900
7 Brian McCann LEFT 0.326 0.191 33.5% 0.309 C $3,000 C $4,400
8 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.307 0.124 30.2% 0.269 3B $2,900 3B $4,400
9 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.324 0.256 50.0% 0.173 OF $2,700 OF $4,400
Team Averages — 0.345 0.204 33.2% 0.328 — — — —

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Mark Teixeira, Starlin Castro

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles have one of the most potent offenses in baseball when it comes to hitting right-handed pitching. They have the sixth highest run projection in the slate tonight, as they host Chad Green and the Yankees. Green has looked good at times this season, but he has allowed a 37.9% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters and a 35.4% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. When the Orioles make good contact in this ballpark, they can put up runs in a hurry.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.346 0.208 31.7% 0.285 OF $3,300 OF $4,600
2 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.377 0.119 31.3% 0.331 OF $3,000 OF $3,800
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.382 0.249 35.1% 0.410 3B $4,100 3B/SS $5,200
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.384 0.313 43.4% 0.414 1B $3,400 1B $4,500
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.350 0.230 34.6% 0.407 OF $3,300 OF $4,900
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.357 0.223 33.1% 0.362 2B $3,200 2B $4,400
7 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.343 0.249 38.6% 0.305 3B $3,200 1B $3,800
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.317 0.165 31.2% 0.294 C $2,500 C $4,100
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.277 0.124 28.5% 0.271 SS $2,500 SS $2,700
Team Averages — 0.348 0.209 34.2% 0.342 — — — —

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Hyun-Soo Kim, Mark Trumbo, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Miami Cleveland
miamimlb Andrew Cashner clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -225 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.373 22 37.5% 19.2% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.296 20 33.2% 27.1%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.311 12 27.8% 20.0% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.279 17 28.5% 28.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Cashner
andrew-cashner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,300
FPPG: 20.5 FPPG: 9.8
Pitcher Rating: 38.3 Pitcher Rank: 27
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 93.0 5.27 5.48 15.6% 12.5% 8.3% 54.4% 29.4% 46.4%
2016 21 88.3 4.67 4.73 18.0% 9.0% 7.5% 47.8% 33.9% 35.8%
2015 31 100.3 4.00 4.34 20.5% 8.2% 8.2% 47.4% 29.9% 30.2%

Home:—ERA: 3.70 — K%: 22.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.326
Away:—ERA: 5.26 — K%: 16.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.355

Cashner comes into tonight’s game in terrible form, posting a 5.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15.6% and a walk rate of 12.5% over the last month of play. He draws a difficult matchup against the Indians and he has to face them on the road in an American League ballpark. He grades out as one of the worst pitching options in the entire slate. He should be avoided in both cash games and GPPs.

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,400 Salary: $10,700
FPPG: 35.7 FPPG: 19.7
Pitcher Rating: 92.5 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 96.0 2.83 5.20 29.3% 3.2% 13.0% 42.9% 32.4% 39.1%
2016 21 93.0 3.44 3.23 25.5% 6.0% 12.0% 48.6% 32.3% 34.9%
2015 30 92.6 2.74 3.63 29.6% 5.9% 14.0% 51.2% 29.8% 27.5%

Home:—ERA: 4.92 — K%: 24.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.345
Away:—ERA: 2.29 — K%: 31.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.235

Carrasco has surprisingly been a lot better on the road than he has at home in the last two seasons. If you look at his splits above, it honestly looks like the stats from two completely different pitchers. While his splits do strike me as odd, I’m not going to fade him in a favorable matchup against the Marlins. Over the last month of play, Miami has the fourth lowest team wOBA. Carrasco is the biggest favorite on the schedule and he should see plenty of run support with Andrew Cashner pitching opposite him. Given the price discrepancies, I prefer Carrasco on DraftKings and Noah Syndergaard on FanDuel.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins may not have the lowest implied team total in the slate, but it’s close. They have really struggled offensively over the last month of play and they draw an extremely difficult matchup against Carlos Carrasco. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Carrasco has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.315 0.073 18.1% 0.185 2B $2,700 2B $3,600
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.306 0.099 25.6% 0.271 3B $2,800 3B $3,100
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.378 0.181 38.8% 0.361 OF $3,600 OF $4,600
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.300 0.140 34.5% 0.194 OF $2,700 OF $2,800
5 Xavier Scruggs RIGHT 0.316 0.091 31.4% 0.352 1B $2,200 1B $2,300
6 Ichiro Suzuki LEFT 0.265 0.046 17.6% 0.229 OF $2,500 OF $3,100
7 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.322 0.127 29.9% 0.392 C $3,000 C $3,700
8 Jeff Francoeur RIGHT 0.307 0.174 25.1% 0.328 OF $2,400 OF $2,800
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.273 0.077 27.1% 0.291 SS $2,300 SS $2,300
Team Averages — 0.309 0.112 27.6% 0.289 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians are ranked inside the top ten in almost every single category listed below. They have the third highest run projection in the slate, as they square off against the struggling Andrew Cashner. Hitters from both sides of the plate are worth a look here, but give the edge to those that can hit from the left side. In the last two seasons, Cashner has allowed a .373 wOBA, 22 home runs, and a 37.5% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.347 0.230 34.4% 0.390 1B $3,800 1B $5,100
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.371 0.183 34.9% 0.263 2B $3,900 2B $5,000
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.350 0.152 26.8% 0.319 SS $3,600 SS $4,900
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.312 0.191 33.2% 0.232 1B $3,600 1B $4,200
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.327 0.142 25.9% 0.350 P $4,000 3B/OF $4,700
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.318 0.154 25.4% 0.288 OF $3,000 OF $4,700
7 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.319 0.173 29.9% 0.291 OF $2,700 OF $3,700
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.398 0.273 43.2% 0.223 OF $2,800 OF $4,200
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.296 0.151 26.7% 0.355 C $2,500 C $3,100
Team Averages — 0.338 0.183 31.2% 0.301 — — — —

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious