MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-04-18 02:34:14

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Tampa Bay at Boston – 11:05 AM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay						Boston
			Blake Snell						Steven Wright
			LEFT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-125						10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.292	30.9%	13.3%	25.6%	47.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.281	22.2%	8.0%	18.1%	44.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.320	29.9%	13.1%	22.6%	33.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.324	34.8%	9.1%	19.6%	43.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Blake Snell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		6 of 20	Salary Rank:		12 of 20	Salary Rank:		of 20
	2016-17	21	4.71	3.50	23.2%	13.1%	35.8%	30.1%	21.7%

There is always a Red Sox game the morning of the Boston Marathon and this season is no different. It is the only day game in the slate, but is included in the all-day slates on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Snell is a pitcher with a high ceiling and a low floor. He has struggled with his command at the major league level, but boasts a 23.2% strikeout rate. There will be plenty of opportunities to target Snell, but not on the against the Red Sox. Snell is a sizable underdog in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Steven Wright
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		3 of 20	Salary Rank:		16 of 20	Salary Rank:		of 20
	2016-17	26	4.58	3.83	19.0%	8.6%	43.4%	29.6%	22.5%

Wright was blasted in his last start. He gave up seven runs in less than two innings. The good news is that a knuckleball pitcher doesn’t really need to be in good form to pitch well. He is just as likely to pitch a gem today as he is having a repeat performance of his last start. Wright has had marginal success against the Rays in the past and we have such a weird pitching slate that he is worth a look in tournaments. Eight of the Rays’ projected starters have a strikeout rate of at least 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown:Deep GPP Flier.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

This is one of those situations where you either stack the offense or avoid it completely. There aren’t any single hitters that stand out in a matchup against Steven Wright, but we know he is susceptible to giving up huge outings. The first six batters in the Rays’ lineup make sense as a tournament stack, but Corey Dickerson and Brad Miller are the only two that I would consider in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.336	0.261	31.3%	6.6%	23.3%	34.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.308	0.151	29.8%	9.5%	17.0%	45.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,000
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.357	0.257	36.9%	6.3%	22.0%	31.9%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,800
4	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.338	0.252	35.9%	8.0%	25.5%	44.4%	2B	$2,600	2B	$4,200
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.330	0.178	31.5%	8.2%	31.1%	41.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,100
6	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.326	0.199	36.1%	8.4%	22.1%	42.8%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,800
7	Rickie Weeks	RIGHT	0.284	0.124	30.8%	8.0%	31.4%	50.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,000
8	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.233	0.136	31.8%	6.7%	34.1%	37.3%	C	$2,300	C	$3,200
9	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.269	0.174	36.3%	4.3%	30.7%	45.5%	SS	$2,000	SS	$3,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox are large favorites at home in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games on the schedule. Blake Snell hasn’t been terrible against right-handed hitters, but he’s allowed a .320 wOBA and his ground ball rate drops 14% compared to when he faces a lefty. Mookie Betts has yet to strikeout this season (crazy, right?) and has been hitting line drives all over the park. Dustin Pedroia, Chris Young, Xander Bogaerts, and Sandy Leon all have good numbers against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.
1	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.355	0.105	29.5%	14.5%	13.1%	41.0%	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,300
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.196	0.000	28.0%	9.5%	31.0%	39.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000
3	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.332	0.239	33.6%	6.2%	9.7%	38.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,500
4	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.452	0.328	39.2%	11.0%	17.9%	41.2%	1B	$3,400	1B/OF	$4,800
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.376	0.172	34.6%	12.2%	16.9%	41.3%	SS	$3,400	3B/SS	$4,600
6	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.356	0.212	38.9%	6.5%	25.2%	47.2%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,400
7	Chris Young	RIGHT	0.407	0.241	35.0%	11.1%	21.1%	16.7%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.462	0.260	26.9%	11.0%	14.3%	40.9%	C	$2,400	C	$3,000
9	Marco Hernandez	SWITCH	0.403	0.000	16.7%	5.9%	23.5%	66.7%	SS	$2,100	2B/3B	$3,000

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Chris Young, Xander Bogaerts, Sandy Leon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox						NY Yankees
			Derek Holland						Jordan Montgomery
			LEFT						LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-150						8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.236	20.9%	5.6%	20.0%	53.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.144	100.0%	0.0%	60.0%	100.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.336	35.0%	8.3%	13.8%	34.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.459	40.0%	12.5%	25.0%	30.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Derek Holland
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:		12 of 20	Salary Rank:		19 of 20	Salary Rank:		17 of 20
	2016-17	22	5.06	4.60	14.9%	7.8%	37.9%	32.6%	17.2%

Holland has looked good in his first two starts of the season, but we should trust the bigger sample size here. In his last 22 major league starts, he has a SIERA over 5.00 with a strikeout rate under 15%. Not only is the downside greater for a low strikeout pitcher, but it’s also harder to overcome a few runs allowed. The Yankees struggled against southpaws a year ago, but brought in Chris Carter and Matt Holliday to help. Aaron Judge is also a big part of the puzzle moving forward.

Quick Breakdown: Given his lack of strikeout upside, Holland can be avoided in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jordan Montgomery
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$12,000
	Salary Rank:		15 of 20	Salary Rank:		18 of 20	Salary Rank:		15 of 20
	2016-17	1	2.82	3.86	33.3%	9.5%	36.4%	45.5%	9.1%

Montgomery is a young lefty with a lot of promise. In his last full season in the minors, he had a strikeout rate of 25.7% with a walk rate of only 6.3%. He struck out seven batters in his major league debut and gets the added bonus of two home starts right out of the gate. He’s a pitcher to monitor moving forward and I don’t hate the idea of targeting him tonight against one of the worst offenses in the American League. The White Sox are better against lefties than they are against righties, but have five batters in their projected lineup with at least a 21% strikeout rate against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: He may give up a couple of runs, but Montgomery’s strikeout upside puts him on my radar for tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

With young pitchers, there is always the possibility that they will get lit up. For that one reason alone, I will have a White Sox stack or two in tournaments tonight. This is Jordan Montgomery seventh start above Double-A and he did give up five hits and a home run in his debut. The right-handed hitters in this lineup are all viable tournament plays, especially Matt Davidson, who has been making great contact at the plate this season. If he moves up to fifth or sixth in the lineup, I would consider using him in all formats.

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.334	0.122	36.6%	2.9%	27.5%	61.4%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,600
2	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.360	0.106	33.8%	7.4%	16.0%	53.6%	SS	$2,900	3B/SS	$3,700	2B	$7,200
3	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.357	0.171	29.0%	5.3%	13.6%	41.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
4	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.344	0.227	39.2%	8.7%	21.3%	46.1%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,600	1B	$8,800
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.329	0.267	28.4%	11.0%	28.7%	23.5%	3B	$3,400	1B/3B	$4,700	3B	$9,200
6	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.312	0.159	43.2%	9.2%	22.5%	55.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
7	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.491	0.375	40.0%	11.1%	33.3%	0.0%	1B	$2,500	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,600
8	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.372	0.174	14.3%	14.3%	10.7%	38.1%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,400
9	Jacob May	SWITCH	0.343	0.000	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	100.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,600

Elite Plays – Matt Davidson

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

The book on Holland is pretty straightforward – avoid the lefties and target the righties against him. Since the start of last season, he has given up a .336 wOBA with a hard contact rate of 35%. His ground ball rate against righties is low and he only strikes them out at a 14% clip. Even though he’s pitched well in his first two starts this season, I will be heavily targeting the right-handed hitters in the Yankees’ lineup tonight, specifically Matt Holliday, Chris Carter, and Aaron Judge.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.278	0.081	23.8%	7.6%	19.0%	53.5%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,600
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.273	0.075	25.3%	5.4%	16.2%	44.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.340	0.261	43.0%	9.0%	14.9%	47.0%	OF	$2,900	1B/OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
4	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.356	0.300	37.8%	13.2%	26.3%	38.8%	1B	$2,600	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.312	0.161	32.1%	5.1%	19.1%	44.8%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
6	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.302	0.080	28.6%	8.8%	13.7%	45.0%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,600
7	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.188	0.000	57.1%	21.7%	47.8%	28.6%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,600
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.299	0.153	29.4%	3.8%	14.4%	51.8%	C	$2,400	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
9	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.222	0.022	29.7%	11.5%	17.3%	54.1%	3B	$2,200	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,400

Elite Plays – Matt Holliday, Chris Carter, Aaron Judge (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Starlin Castro, Aaron Judge (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at St. Louis – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh						St. Louis
			Ivan Nova						Lance Lynn
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			STL-132						8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.362	37.8%	3.5%	13.3%	45.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.365	29.2%	12.5%	12.5%	54.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.301	31.7%	4.1%	21.5%	59.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.301	30.0%	6.7%	26.7%	20.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ivan Nova
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:		7 of 20	Salary Rank:		6 of 20	Salary Rank:		6 of 20
	2016-17	28	3.80	4.03	18.0%	3.8%	52.9%	34.5%	18.6%

Even though he is an underdog pitching on the road, a case can be made for Nova tonight. He doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate, but he induces a lot of ground balls and is dominant against right-handed hitters, holding them to a .301 wOBA. The Cardinals’ offense should have five or six righties in their lineup (including the pitcher), which bodes well for Nova’s chances. This is a pitcher’s park and Nova is cheap across the industry if you want to take a shot on him in GPPs. The only concern here are the lefties at the top of the lineup in Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter.

Quick Breakdown: Nova doesn’t have massive upside, but has some appeal as a contrarian SP2 in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Lance Lynn
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$13,500
	Salary Rank:		11 of 20	Salary Rank:		10 of 20	Salary Rank:		10 of 20
	2016-17	2	4.77	5.23	17.0%	10.6%	44.1%	29.4%	5.9%

From a “stuff” standpoint, Lynn is back to where he was in 2015 before Tommy John surgery. His velocity is back up to 92 MPH and he still has his slider and changeup. He hasn’t looked great so far this season though, especially from a command point of view. I don’t mind taking wait and see approaches on certain players because there are always other options that we can look to in DFS. His matchup against the Pirates isn’t terrible, but the jury is still out on what we can expect from Lynn the rest of the season.

Quick Breakdown: More downside than upside at this point in time.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

I wish this game was being played in more of a hitter-friendly ballpark, because nobody will be on the Pirates’ side of this matchup. However, it’s hard to get excited about this offense on the road in a pitcher’s park. The lefties here are certainly in play though, as Lance Lynn has allowed a career .342 wOBA to left-handed batters. Gregory Polanco is a sneaky one-off target, while Adam Frazier and Josh Bell are serviceable value plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.332	0.130	31.9%	8.1%	16.8%	42.0%	SS	$2,100	2B/OF	$3,000	IF/OF	$6,000
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.363	0.160	35.3%	4.5%	18.1%	47.7%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,000
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.328	0.167	36.3%	9.4%	21.6%	35.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,400	RF	$8,400
4	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.331	0.193	36.1%	9.1%	17.7%	38.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.322	0.131	33.3%	8.7%	27.7%	59.9%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,000	3B	$6,000
6	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.349	0.150	33.3%	14.0%	12.0%	46.8%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,400
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.312	0.090	26.6%	13.6%	18.7%	53.8%	C	$2,900	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.289	0.099	24.3%	7.7%	14.8%	51.1%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
9	Ivan Nova	RIGHT	0.115	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	63.0%	33.3%	P	$7,300	P	$7,500	P	$15,000

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Starling Marte, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

The Cardinals’ offense as a whole isn’t in the best of matchups. They are a right-handed heavy lineup that is facing a pitcher with true splits. Since the start of last season, Ivan Nova has held righties to a .301 wOBA while inducing a 59% ground ball rate. His numbers against lefties are considerably worse though, as he has allowed a .362 wOBA and a 37.8% hard contact rate. Matt Carpenter is one of my favorite one-off targets in the slate. He boasts a ridiculous 46% hard contact rate against righties. Dexter Fowler is also in play for his stolen base upside. Teams have been running often against Francisco Cervelli this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.348	0.152	28.1%	14.3%	25.9%	37.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500	CF	$8,700
2	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.391	0.249	32.1%	8.1%	13.1%	43.8%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,100
3	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.383	0.254	46.1%	15.6%	19.0%	28.0%	2B	$3,000	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,700
4	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.330	0.169	33.7%	6.4%	22.4%	45.4%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,000
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.337	0.117	30.9%	6.6%	10.3%	48.7%	C	$2,500	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
6	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.327	0.146	32.8%	6.9%	17.1%	41.9%	SS	$2,500	3B/SS	$3,400	3B	$6,600
7	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.313	0.232	40.3%	4.3%	31.4%	42.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600
8	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.290	0.118	24.5%	10.3%	13.5%	47.6%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,200	2B	$6,300
9	Lance Lynn	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	P	$6,900	P	$6,800	P	$13,500

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
San Diego						Atlanta
			Jered Weaver						Jaime Garcia
			RIGHT						LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			ATL-160						8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.363	28.6%	7.7%	12.4%	33.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.298	24.6%	5.0%	21.4%	45.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.363	39.7%	5.8%	14.5%	26.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.348	33.0%	8.4%	19.0%	57.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jered Weaver
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$12,000
	Salary Rank:		20 of 20	Salary Rank:		17 of 20	Salary Rank:		15 of 20
	2016-17	33	5.38	5.05	13.6%	6.7%	29.5%	34.7%	18.7%

Weaver found a way to pitch well in Coors Field. I didn’t think it was possible, but the Rockies’ offense has really struggled to string together hits this season. Should we be encouraged by Weaver’s last start? Absolutely not. I have no issues with Weaver as a person, but he is not a good pitcher at this stage in his career. In fact, he is arguably the worst starting pitcher in baseball. In his last 33 starts, he has a 5.38 SIERA, a strikeout rate of 13.6%, and a hard contact rate that is higher than his ground ball rate.

Quick Breakdown: My loyal Grind Down readers are smart enough not to play Weaver tonight, right? RIGHT?

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jaime Garcia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		5 of 20	Salary Rank:		7 of 20	Salary Rank:		7 of 20
	2016-17	32	4.02	4.73	19.5%	7.7%	55.5%	31.3%	18.8%

If you can’t tell by now, this is a lackluster pitching slate. Even though we don’t have a lot of options to work with, Garcia is not on my radar. There will be a time over the course of the season when Garcia picks it up and starts striking hitters out in bunches. He is very streaky when it comes to his strikeouts. However, until we start seeing some form, he is an easy fade in DFS. In his first two starts this season, he’s allowed three more runs than strikeouts.

Quick Breakdown: We will get to some better pitching options, I promise.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres are a sneaky offense to target tonight. Jaime Garcia may have an elite ground ball rate, but he’s been in bad form and his strikeout rate is down. Combine that with the fact that five of the first six batters in the Padres’ lineup are fly-ball hitters and we have ourselves an intriguing stack. Wil Myers and Hunter Renfroe are two of my favorite bats to target tonight, even though this isn’t the best hitter’s park in baseball. Garcia has allowed a .348 wOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to righties since the start of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Manuel Margot	RIGHT	0.335	0.200	45.0%	3.8%	19.2%	65.0%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.345	0.195	40.2%	10.8%	24.4%	42.9%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,400
3	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.320	0.157	27.2%	6.7%	15.1%	41.3%	3B	$2,900	2B	$3,400	3B	$6,600
4	Hunter Renfroe	RIGHT	0.421	0.333	31.8%	4.0%	8.0%	40.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,400
5	Ryan Schimpf	LEFT	0.314	0.328	45.5%	8.3%	41.7%	12.1%	2B	$2,900	3B	$3,500	2B	$6,900
6	Austin Hedges	RIGHT	0.230	0.059	28.6%	10.5%	15.8%	42.9%	C	$2,300	C	$2,600	C	$5,200
7	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.180	0.022	18.8%	8.0%	28.0%	54.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,700
8	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.228	0.051	17.9%	3.2%	20.0%	70.3%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,500	SS	$4,800
9	Jered Weaver	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	100.0%	P	$5,500	P	$6,100	P	$12,000

Elite Plays – Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe

Secondary Plays – Manuel Margot, Yangervis Solarte, Austin Hedges

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta

Jered Weaver does not discriminate against handedness. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .363 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Most of his hard contact has come against righties, but we can target hitters from both sides of the plate here. Weaver is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that doesn’t strike batters out and that gives up a lot of home runs. That sounds pretty good if you ask me. I will have a Braves’ stack or two (or three) in tournaments and I don’t mind a mini-stack in cash games. Don’t be scared off by Weaver’s last start in Coors Field.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.316	0.114	26.2%	7.9%	13.5%	44.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,600
2	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.290	0.108	32.1%	7.9%	23.8%	43.2%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,600
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.414	0.295	43.8%	14.3%	23.1%	27.2%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,600	1B	$8,800
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.345	0.162	34.1%	12.0%	15.7%	40.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
5	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.328	0.126	28.0%	3.3%	11.4%	48.1%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
6	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.286	0.136	30.2%	3.4%	17.3%	52.3%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,800
7	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.344	0.138	44.5%	7.6%	28.2%	44.5%	C	$2,700	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
8	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.326	0.133	24.2%	13.3%	16.8%	57.8%	2B	$2,800	3B/OF	$3,200	2B	$6,300
9	Jaime Garcia	LEFT	0.171	0.000	22.6%	4.2%	31.3%	63.6%	P	$7,700	P	$7,200	P	$14,400

Elite Plays – Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Dansby Swanson, Nick Markakis, Brandon Phillips, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Milwaukee						Chicago Cubs
			Chase Anderson						John Lackey
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-200						7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.282	32.7%	8.6%	19.6%	33.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.303	33.5%	9.4%	22.2%	45.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.380	38.6%	7.9%	18.3%	38.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.263	33.8%	5.6%	26.6%	37.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chase Anderson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		12 of 20	Salary Rank:		11 of 20	Salary Rank:		11 of 20
	2016-17	32	4.62	4.10	18.9%	8.2%	36.5%	36.2%	17.5%

Anderson has a nice track record against the Cubs, but comes into the game as the biggest underdog in the slate. I’m all for spotting trends and using them to our advantage in DFS, but I’m not going to roster Anderson against the Cubs in Wrigley Field. He is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a 33% hard contact rate to lefties and a 38% hard contact rate to righties. His command isn’t great and the Cubs like to make pitchers work for outs.

Quick Breakdown: Anderson isn’t the worst play on the board, but that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
John Lackey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$19,600
	Salary Rank:		2 of 20	Salary Rank:		2 of 20	Salary Rank:		2 of 20
	2016-17	31	3.77	3.32	24.7%	7.3%	41.2%	33.6%	16.3%

FINALLY!

We have a pitcher that deserves consideration tonight. I’m not sure if Lackey found the fountain of youth or if he just has a case of old man strength, but whatever he’s doing, it is working. He had a career-high strikeout rate last season and it looks like that is going to carry over into this season. He doesn’t walk many batters and he has a strikeout rate just under 25%. With the additions of Eric Thames and Travis Shaw, this Brewers’ offense is a lot better than most people realize, but they are still one of the best strikeout matchups for a pitcher. Seven of their projected starters have a strikeout rate of at least 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Lackey will be the chalk tonight, but he’s the good chalk. He’s playable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

John Lackey has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons, but he has gotten a little lucky. His SIERA is worse than his ERA, so we could see a little regression this year. His biggest issue has been the hard contact that he allows to both left and right-handed hitters. Eric Thames is basically breathing fire right now, but is still only $3,200 on FanDuel and $3,800 on DraftKings. He’s an intriguing one-off target and you can pair him with Travis Shaw if you want some leverage off of the chalky Lackey.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.341	0.158	35.9%	11.7%	26.3%	60.7%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,500	2B	$8,800
2	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.505	0.400	54.6%	8.8%	23.5%	36.4%	1B	$3,200	1B/OF	$3,800	1B	$7,500
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.362	0.226	33.1%	7.9%	19.1%	56.1%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,000	LF	$9,600
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.322	0.182	34.1%	9.4%	24.2%	37.5%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
5	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.323	0.186	35.8%	10.8%	32.4%	48.8%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
6	Keon Broxton	RIGHT	0.294	0.151	37.5%	12.4%	34.7%	44.0%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600
7	Jett Bandy	RIGHT	0.283	0.140	27.1%	3.2%	17.2%	28.2%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700	C	$5,200
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.251	0.122	20.9%	4.7%	22.1%	56.1%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,900
9	Chase Anderson	RIGHT	0.084	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	52.3%	78.6%	P	$6,800	P	$6,700	P	$13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames, Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

The current Cubs’ roster is 6-for-46 with six strikeouts against Chase Anderson in the past. While that’s certainly noteworthy, that doesn’t mean that they can’t come alive tonight. This is one of the best offenses in baseball and they are facing a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. Anderson has reverse splits, so I prefer the right-handed hitters in the Cubs’ lineup. However, I wouldn’t rule out the left-handed bats of Kyle Schwarber and Anthony Rizzo. The home run upside in this matchup makes up for the team’s bad numbers against Anderson.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.282	0.152	43.8%	12.8%	43.6%	56.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,400
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.375	0.232	39.6%	10.2%	23.0%	30.5%	3B	$4,300	3B	$5,000	IF/OF	$9,900
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.396	0.259	37.8%	11.4%	17.3%	36.2%	1B	$4,300	1B	$5,300	1B	$10,400
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.356	0.184	33.1%	16.3%	11.3%	46.3%	2B	$3,000	2B/OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,100
5	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.303	0.155	27.6%	7.4%	21.3%	42.4%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,200
6	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.290	0.097	27.6%	8.4%	14.4%	46.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,600
7	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.354	0.209	32.9%	10.5%	27.1%	52.6%	C	$2,900	C	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,200
8	John Lackey	RIGHT	0.169	0.043	25.9%	3.8%	45.3%	47.8%	P	$9,600	P	$10,200	P	$19,600
9	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.293	0.139	28.7%	1.5%	26.9%	44.3%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,700	3B	$7,200

MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 17th

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Stackability Rating System:

Tampa Bay at Boston – 11:05 AM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Chris Young, Xander Bogaerts, Sandy Leon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Matt Davidson

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Matt Holliday, Chris Carter, Aaron Judge (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Starlin Castro, Aaron Judge (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at St. Louis – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Starling Marte, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe

Secondary Plays – Manuel Margot, Yangervis Solarte, Austin Hedges

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Dansby Swanson, Nick Markakis, Brandon Phillips, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames, Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Addison Russell

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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