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MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-06 20:35:03

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cincinnati at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Cincinnati NY Mets
cincinnatimlb Homer Bailey nymetsmlb Noah Syndergaard
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-165 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.362 0.380 34.7% 2.19 15.8% 38.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 0.263 22.1% 0.42 26.1% 46.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.357 0.408 50.0% 1.59 14.4% 40.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.291 23.0% 0.92 24.7% 47.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Homer Bailey
homer-bailey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $11,000
Salary Rank: 17 of 20 Salary Rank: 17 of 20 Salary Rank: 16 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 18 5.19 6.43 16.0% 10.0% 44.6% 31.0% 16.5% 93.5 9.3%
2018 14 5.04 5.87 15.0% 7.8% 39.5% 42.9% 13.2% 93.1 8.3%
L14 2 3.52 2.45 25.9% 5.6% 30.6% 40.5% 8.1% 94.3 12.0%

We’ve got ten games on the schedule tonight and we start with two teams that will be starting their vacations a little earlier than those that are going to make the playoffs. I figured Bailey’s start against the Cardinals was a fluke, but then he came right back with another quality start against the Tigers. In his last two outings, he has scored 49 fantasy points (DK scoring), which is 36 more fantasy points than he scored in his previous eight outings combined. It’s always tempting to pick on the Mets in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but I’m not drinking the Homer Kool-Aid just yet. We have years of data of him struggling in the majors. Two stars isn’t a big enough sample to sway how I view him.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bailey in all formats.

Noah Syndergaard
noah-syndergaard-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $9,600 Salary: $18,700
Salary Rank: 3 of 20 Salary Rank: 3 of 20 Salary Rank: 3 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 7 2.74 2.97 27.4% 2.4% 57.6% 30.2% 16.3% 98.3 13.9%
2018 14 3.29 2.98 25.4% 4.7% 47.2% 22.6% 26.4% 97.4 13.9%
L14 1 4.18 3.86 14.3% 3.6% 54.5% 17.4% 30.4% 97.4 7.7%

Syndergaard is underpriced tonight against the Reds. There’s no other way to put it. He’s priced under $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I know that his strikeouts have been down since coming back from injury, but he’s still one of the most talented pitchers in baseball. On the season, he has a 3.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 5%. He has a higher soft contact rate than hard contact rate and he throws his fastball at an average of 97 MPH. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Reds, who see a negative ballpark shift playing in Citi Field. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .309 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Syndergaard is an elite play in all formats and a nice discount off of Trevor Bauer.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are playing on the road, they see a negative ballpark shift, and they have one of the worst matchups of the slate. In addition to a high strikeout rate and an elite soft contact rate, Noah Syndergaard has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA with a ground ball rate of at least 46%. The one and only weakness that I see is his inability to hold runners. If Jose Peraza can find a way to get on base, he could be a nice value play across the industry — $2,800 on FanDuel and $3,600 on DraftKings.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.300 0.109 31.6% 6.2% 12.5% 36.9% SS $2,800 SS $3,600 SS $7,300
2 Joey Votto LEFT 0.455 0.159 38.7% 19.3% 13.0% 34.4% 1B $3,500 1B $4,100 1B $8,200
3 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.382 0.261 51.0% 8.9% 23.2% 35.1% 3B $3,900 3B $4,600 3B $9,100
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.351 0.192 38.7% 8.0% 17.5% 38.6% 2B $3,200 2B $4,200 2B $8,000
5 Mason Williams LEFT 0.313 0.167 53.3% 0.0% 25.0% 69.2% OF $2,200 OF $3,000 CF $5,400
6 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.340 0.111 40.5% 10.7% 16.6% 41.7% C $2,400 C $3,400 C $6,900
7 Preston Tucker LEFT 0.294 0.189 41.3% 5.8% 26.7% 48.1% OF $2,000 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
8 Homer Bailey RIGHT 0.097 0.000 18.2% 0.0% 35.3% 100.0% P $6,200 P $5,500 P $11,000
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.250 0.069 20.3% 10.1% 24.1% 44.6% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
Team Averages 0.309 0.140 37.1% 7.7% 21.5% 49.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto (GPP), Jose Peraza

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

The Mets are an offense that we should have interest in tonight, at least if we are trusting the long term form of Homer Bailey. On the season, he has a 15% strikeout rate, a 43% hard contact rate, and he has allowed a .380+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. The Mets are certainly lacking in the talent department, but they are cheap and significant favorites tonight at home. Jose Bautista stands out as one of the top value plays of the slate. He bats from the right side and boast a .349 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.365 0.244 35.9% 13.3% 27.3% 34.7% OF $3,200 OF $4,600 LF $9,200
2 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.349 0.155 41.9% 14.8% 29.6% 35.5% OF $2,300 3B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,600
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.349 0.164 36.8% 16.8% 22.0% 36.8% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 LF $8,200
4 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.318 0.234 37.4% 7.5% 9.1% 35.5% 1B $2,800 1B $3,700 3B $7,400
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.355 0.178 45.5% 10.0% 22.0% 35.8% 3B $2,600 3B $3,900 3B $7,500
6 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.317 0.158 20.0% 12.0% 20.0% 38.5% 2B $2,600 2B $3,400 2B $6,900
7 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.276 0.117 26.5% 5.2% 19.1% 50.8% SS $2,300 SS $3,000 SS $5,700
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.315 0.174 32.0% 6.0% 18.5% 32.0% C $2,300 C $3,300 C $6,700
9 Noah Syndergaard RIGHT 0.174 0.053 22.2% 0.0% 55.0% 50.0% P $9,400 P $9,600 P $18,700
Team Averages 0.313 0.164 33.1% 9.5% 24.7% 38.8%

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Todd Frazier

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Wilmer Flores, Jeff McNeil

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Cleveland
minnesotamlb Kyle Gibson clevelandmlb Trevor Bauer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-205 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.289 0.336 39.8% 0.73 20.6% 41.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.264 0.274 35.5% 0.49 29.4% 45.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.289 0.309 37.4% 0.99 26.2% 51.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.267 0.281 36.6% 0.34 31.9% 42.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson
kyle-gibson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,700
Salary Rank: 7 of 20 Salary Rank: 7 of 20 Salary Rank: 6 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 29 4.67 5.07 17.5% 8.7% 50.8% 35.8% 15.4% 92.0 10.0%
2018 22 4.10 3.47 23.6% 9.5% 46.7% 38.5% 19.1% 92.8 12.1%
L14 2 3.79 2.57 23.6% 9.1% 57.1% 41.7% 19.4% 93.1 12.8%

These two teams just squared off in Minnesota and will repeat the process in Cleveland. Gibson held the Indians in check (three earned runs), but still offers more risk than upside in this matchup. On the season, he has a 10% walk rate and a 39% hard contact rate. Meanwhile, the Indians have been one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching. Their projected lineup boasts an average xwOBA of .368 with a .200 ISO and a 41% hard contact rate. Those are elite numbers for a single batter, let alone the average of an entire lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gibson in all formats.

Trevor Bauer
trevor-bauer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,500 Salary: $12,300 Salary: $24,100
Salary Rank: 1 of 20 Salary Rank: 1 of 20 Salary Rank: 1 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 3.80 4.19 26.2% 8.0% 46.4% 34.4% 15.0% 94.0 9.2%
2018 23 3.27 2.34 30.7% 8.4% 43.9% 36.1% 15.9% 94.6 13.0%
L14 2 4.28 1.35 24.5% 11.3% 43.3% 43.8% 12.5% 95.0 10.8%

Bauer wasn’t his elite self in his last start (15 fantasy points against the Twins in Minnesota), but he is still having a career year. In 23 starts, he has a 3.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31%. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points (DK scoring) in six of his last ten starts and has averaged 27 fantasy points per start at home this season. He is the top projected pitcher of the slate, although you can argue that Noah Syndergaard is the better point-per-dollar option given the big discount. I plan to have plenty of exposure to both, although I feel a little more comfortable with Bauer given where his form has been in the last month of play.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer is an elite play in all formats and the top pitcher of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins were able to muster up two runs against Trevor Bauer in their last meeting, but that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement. They now have to face him in Cleveland, where he has been dominant all season. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Bauer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 xwOBA. The Twins are a full fade in my eyes.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.411 0.102 43.7% 11.7% 11.3% 48.7% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
2 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.341 0.229 38.4% 7.0% 17.5% 33.1% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 LF $8,500
3 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.317 0.125 27.1% 15.6% 20.8% 38.3% SS $2,800 SS $3,600 SS $7,500
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.379 0.208 42.1% 10.6% 20.1% 28.6% 1B $3,000 1B $3,600 1B $7,400
5 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.290 0.223 48.0% 7.8% 40.4% 42.5% 3B $2,700 1B/3B $3,400 IF/OF $6,400
6 Max Kepler LEFT 0.328 0.169 39.1% 12.0% 13.7% 39.5% OF $2,600 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
7 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.289 0.091 29.6% 9.0% 18.9% 44.3% 2B $2,300 2B/3B $2,700 2B $5,900
8 Jake Cave LEFT 0.359 0.178 32.4% 4.2% 25.0% 46.3% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 CF $5,800
9 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.234 0.094 26.5% 6.3% 22.1% 47.0% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $4,800
Team Averages 0.328 0.158 36.3% 9.4% 21.1% 40.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians have one of the highest implied run totals of the slate, but that’s not out of the ordinary. They have one of the best offenses in baseball and they are playing at home in a ballpark that favors left-handed power. While Kyle Gibson has been much better this season, he’s still had his problems with lefties, allowing a .336 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate. The Indians not only have a left-handed heavy offense, but each of the first five batters in their projected lineup has a .385+ xwOBA and a .190+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.412 0.286 42.7% 10.0% 16.3% 33.7% SS $4,800 SS $5,300 SS $9,600
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.401 0.192 43.7% 6.9% 8.2% 43.1% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 LF $8,500
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.424 0.367 40.2% 17.8% 11.9% 29.7% 3B $5,300 3B $5,700 IF/OF $10,100
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.388 0.261 43.5% 8.6% 23.3% 38.6% 1B $3,700 1B $4,300 1B $8,300
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.391 0.208 40.5% 10.1% 19.1% 39.2% 1B $3,200 1B $4,200 1B $8,200
6 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.316 0.105 35.7% 4.7% 11.8% 45.7% OF $2,300 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
7 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.335 0.125 36.0% 9.6% 18.8% 36.5% 2B $2,700 2B $3,200 2B $6,700
8 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.248 0.087 43.6% 7.8% 37.9% 53.4% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $4,700
9 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.395 0.167 41.7% 9.9% 21.0% 38.9% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 CF $8,500
Team Averages 0.368 0.200 40.8% 9.5% 18.7% 39.9%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis

Stackability – GREEN

St. Louis at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

St. Louis Miami
stlouismlb Luke Weaver miamimlb Wei-Yin Chen
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-145 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.358 0.362 34.9% 1.49 19.1% 40.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.252 0.280 35.9% 1.35 27.6% 47.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.288 0.308 34.8% 0.81 23.3% 41.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.374 0.329 32.3% 1.57 14.1% 34.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luke Weaver
luke-weaver-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 13 of 20 Salary Rank: 11 of 20 Salary Rank: 11 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 10 3.29 3.88 28.6% 6.8% 49.4% 25.9% 19.1% 93.2 9.7%
2018 22 4.37 4.75 21.0% 8.5% 41.3% 34.8% 17.9% 93.8 9.8%
L14 3 5.10 4.97 15.9% 11.1% 50.0% 39.1% 10.9% 93.9 8.2%

Surprise, surprise. Weaver chalk failed once again. I’m not sure what he has to do for us to learn our lesson. If we ignore his numbers from 2017, it’s a lot easier to start justifying the fade. In 22 starts in 2018, he has a mediocre 4.37 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a hard contact rate of 35%. Those are average to below-average numbers in the majors this season. It’s certainly tempting to give him another chance tonight, but I expect his ownership to be relatively high once again. The Marlins aren’t a scary offense as a whole, but they do have three batters with at least a .360+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: I’m resisting the temptation, which means this will be the night Weaver finally pitches well.

Wei-Yin Chen
wei-yin-chen-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,300 Salary: $8,300
Salary Rank: 18 of 20 Salary Rank: 19 of 20 Salary Rank: 19 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 5 4.61 3.82 18.9% 6.8% 36.6% 29.9% 24.7% 90.9 8.7%
2018 17 5.05 5.86 16.9% 9.3% 36.7% 33.0% 16.3% 91.0 8.1%
L14 2 6.33 6.55 10.6% 12.8% 37.1% 25.0% 22.2% 91.5 9.7%

Chen is not a pitcher that I trust when it comes to DFS. The only time I would every truly consider using him is if he were facing a left-handed heavy lineup. That’s rarely going to happen given the fact that he’s left-handed himself. Most teams load up on righties when facing left-handed pitchers and that’s exactly what the Cardinals will do tonight. Why is that an issue, you ask? Because since the start of the 2016 season, Chen has allowed 35 home runs to righties in only 44 starts. Against right-handed hitters this season, he has a 14% strikeout rate with a HR/9 of 1.57.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Chen in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals have one of my favorite matchups of the slate, but they are playing in one of the worst ballparks for home run production. We can look at this in one of two ways — the ballpark will hurt the chances of the Cardinals hitting three or more home runs and breaking the slate, or the ballpark will help lower ownership on the Cardinals’ hitters in tournaments. I like the idea of a low-owned right-handed heavy stack that is facing Wei-Yin Chen. The two-through-six Cardinals’ stack looks awfully enticing tonight. You can even include Matt Carpenter, who boasts a .423 xwOBA and a .326 ISO against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.423 0.326 55.7% 18.1% 21.6% 37.3% 3B $4,400 1B/3B $5,500 3B $10,400
2 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.427 0.169 41.7% 6.4% 14.1% 23.3% C $3,000 C $4,300 C $8,200
3 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.308 0.169 31.0% 12.7% 26.8% 31.0% SS $3,300 SS $3,900 SS $7,200
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.361 0.167 44.3% 6.7% 17.1% 51.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 LF $7,200
5 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.341 0.080 34.4% 11.8% 12.9% 43.8% 1B $2,700 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,300
6 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.416 0.302 45.3% 13.5% 14.9% 45.3% 3B $2,800 2B/3B $4,000 3B $7,500
7 Tyler O’Neill RIGHT 0.238 0.000 75.0% 0.0% 55.6% 75.0% OF $2,600 OF $4,000 LF $7,200
8 Harrison Bader RIGHT 0.316 0.203 35.9% 7.2% 25.3% 41.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
9 Luke Weaver RIGHT 0.283 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 23.1% 28.6% P $7,000 P $7,200 P $14,400
Team Averages 0.346 0.157 42.6% 8.5% 23.5% 42.0%

Elite Plays – Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna, Jedd Gyorko, Matt Carpenter (GPP), Jose Martinez (FD)

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter (Cash), Jose Martinez (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami

The Marlins will garner little to no ownership tonight. At this point, everyone that has been rostering Luke Weaver this season is basically pot-committed. They have been burned so many times that they don’t want to fade him and miss out on the start where he finally pitches well. This sets up well for two hitters in particular as one-off targets. On the season, Weaver has allowed a .362 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Derek Dietrich and Justin Bour both bat from the left side, they are both cheap on FanDuel, and they both boast a .335+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.339 0.156 36.8% 6.8% 23.8% 39.6% OF $2,500 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,200
2 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.360 0.126 38.0% 7.0% 17.4% 50.4% OF $2,700 3B/OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,000
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.380 0.236 39.5% 5.2% 16.9% 42.5% C $3,200 C $4,800 C $9,000
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.369 0.223 42.0% 16.2% 25.8% 39.3% 1B $2,800 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.325 0.119 38.1% 5.5% 18.9% 48.1% 2B $2,400 2B $4,000 2B $7,400
6 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.274 0.075 29.1% 3.6% 21.7% 47.6% 3B $2,100 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
7 JT Riddle LEFT 0.305 0.157 34.9% 4.7% 22.1% 48.6% SS $2,100 SS $3,000 SS $5,800
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.102 0.000 18.2% 0.0% 38.9% 77.8% OF $2,000 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
9 Wei-Yin Chen LEFT 0.120 0.048 7.7% 0.0% 38.1% 83.3% P $5,900 P $4,300 P $8,300
Team Averages 0.286 0.127 31.6% 5.4% 24.8% 53.0%

Elite Plays – Derek Dietrich (FD), Justin Bour (FD)

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich (DK GPP), Justin Bour (DK GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Seattle at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Seattle Texas
seattlemlb Wade LeBlanc texasmlb Martin Perez
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA-110 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.346 0.356 30.6% 1.71 20.4% 33.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.372 0.272 33.3% 0.90 14.6% 65.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.300 0.349 32.7% 1.34 19.0% 38.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.434 0.407 47.0% 2.27 13.4% 45.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Wade LeBlanc
wade-leblanc-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 14 of 20 Salary Rank: 10 of 20 Salary Rank: 9 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 3.97 4.50 19.1% 6.0% 45.9% 34.1% 20.9% 87.3 9.6%
2018 17 4.21 3.95 19.4% 5.0% 37.1% 32.1% 17.9% 86.3 9.1%
L14 2 4.37 8.71 18.8% 6.3% 42.9% 47.2% 11.1% 85.8 6.8%

LeBlanc has quietly had a nice season for the Mariners. He’s not going to overpower an offense (average fastball of 86 MPH), but he gets outs at the major league level, which is a struggle for many pitchers. In 17 starts, LeBlanc owns a 4.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 5%. I certainly don’t mind using him as a cheap SP2 when he draws a favorable matchup. Unfortunately, that’s not the case tonight. He has to face a talented Rangers’ offense on the road with temperatures in the high 90s.

Quick Breakdown: The risk outweighs the reward for LeBlanc in these elite hitting conditions.

Martin Perez
martin-perez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,100
Salary Rank: 19 of 20 Salary Rank: 18 of 20 Salary Rank: 18 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 5.04 4.82 14.2% 7.8% 47.3% 33.3% 15.2% 93.1 7.3%
2018 9 5.21 6.50 13.6% 9.6% 49.4% 44.3% 14.4% 92.2 6.2%
L14 2 4.64 1.64 18.0% 10.0% 50.0% 38.9% 16.7% 93.0 8.0%

Perez has yet to find himself on my radar this season, let alone on one of my rosters. He’s one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. In nine starts, he has a 5.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14% and a hard contact rate of 44%. He has allowed a .407 xwOBA, a 47% hard contact rate, and a 2.27 HR/9 to batters from the right side of the plate. Yeah, those numbers aren’t very good. Add in a matchup against the low-strikeout Mariners and the fact that this game is being played in Texas and we have ourselves the easiest fade on the board.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Perez in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Texas, it’s expected to be very hot tonight, and they have one of the best matchups of the slate. They are easily my favorite stack on the board and it’s always nice when the top stack is playing on the road, as they are guaranteed to see ninth inning at-bats. As mentioned above, Martin Perez has been atrocious against right-handed hitters this season. Every single righty in this Mariners’ lineup is viable. My favorite is obviously Nelson Cruz, who boasts a .445 xwOBA and a .378 ISO against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.314 0.142 23.2% 5.3% 12.8% 43.3% SS $3,100 SS $4,600 SS $8,900
2 Denard Span LEFT 0.313 0.108 31.2% 11.5% 18.4% 45.9% OF $2,600 OF $4,700 CF $9,100
3 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.357 0.138 37.5% 10.7% 21.4% 46.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,600 RF $9,200
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.445 0.378 47.9% 13.0% 18.5% 38.0% OF $3,900 OF $5,200 RF $9,800
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.324 0.162 26.9% 3.9% 22.9% 39.3% 3B $2,600 3B $3,800 3B $7,200
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.347 0.200 31.6% 6.5% 22.4% 44.7% 1B $2,300 1B $3,800 1B $7,700
7 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.255 0.160 40.0% 6.3% 43.8% 32.5% C $2,100 C $3,600 C $7,700
8 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.300 0.064 29.4% 9.1% 14.9% 48.4% OF $2,200 OF $3,400 CF $6,400
9 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.314 0.088 29.9% 7.7% 17.3% 40.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,000 CF $5,400
Team Averages 0.330 0.160 33.1% 8.2% 21.4% 42.1%

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz, Ryon Healy (FD), Mike Zunino (DK)

Secondary Plays – Ryon Healy (DK), Mike Zunino (FD), Cameron Maybin

Stackability – GREEN

Texas

I expect ownership to gravitate to the Mariners tonight and rightly so. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Rangers. They haven’t been great against southpaws this season and are facing a decent one tonight in Wade LeBlanc. With that said, they are still playing at home in the best hitting conditions of the slate. The matchup looks enticing on paper, as LeBlanc has given up a .345+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. A full stack is certainly in play here and the following batters all boast an xwOBA of at least .340 against southpaws this season — Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, Jurickson Profar, and Robinson Chirinos.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-Soo Choo LEFT 0.351 0.121 39.0% 11.8% 25.0% 47.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 RF $9,400
2 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.284 0.143 41.3% 9.0% 23.0% 45.5% 2B $4,000 2B $5,100 2B $9,400
3 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.346 0.167 35.3% 6.9% 5.2% 49.0% SS $3,800 SS $4,500 SS $9,000
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.352 0.066 48.3% 8.1% 20.9% 43.3% 3B $3,200 3B $4,000 3B $7,200
5 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.344 0.208 31.8% 11.8% 10.0% 38.8% 3B $3,500 3B/SS $4,700 SS $9,100
6 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.352 0.267 50.0% 15.1% 34.2% 36.1% C $2,900 C $4,400 C $8,000
7 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.332 0.337 42.6% 8.8% 41.6% 25.9% OF $3,700 1B/OF $4,700 1B $9,200
8 Ronald Guzman LEFT 0.240 0.190 29.3% 3.3% 28.3% 43.9% 1B $2,400 1B $3,700 1B $7,400
9 Carlos Tocci RIGHT 0.199 0.000 7.7% 5.3% 26.3% 54.5% OF $2,200 OF $3,300 CF $6,300
Team Averages 0.311 0.167 36.1% 8.9% 23.8% 42.7%

Elite Plays – Adrian Beltre, Robinson Chirinos (DK)

Secondary Plays – Robinson Chirinos (FD), Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar, Joey Gallo (GPP)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM ET

NY Yankees Chicago White Sox
nyyankeesmlb Lance Lynn whitesoxmlb Dylan Covey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-170 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.377 0.383 41.7% 1.35 14.1% 56.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.346 0.359 39.2% 1.13 18.8% 50.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.307 33.9% 0.81 26.7% 45.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.346 34.2% 0.83 11.3% 61.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance Lynn
lance-lynn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,100
Salary Rank: 11 of 20 Salary Rank: 12 of 20 Salary Rank: 12 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 4.85 3.43 19.7% 10.1% 44.0% 29.2% 21.1% 91.8 9.0%
2018 20 4.67 4.89 21.6% 12.8% 50.5% 37.4% 19.5% 93.1 10.1%
L14 2 4.53 2.93 20.9% 10.5% 42.2% 42.2% 15.6% 93.7 9.3%

The Yankees decided to pick up another right-handed pitcher in Lynn, despite some mediocre numbers in his first 20 starts of the season. He currently owns a 4.67 SIERA with a walk rate of 13% and a hard contact rate of 37%. The move for Lynn isn’t that great from a fantasy standpoint. He’ll have the pressure of pitching for the Yankees and he’ll have to pitch against tougher opponents. Luckily, he draws a cupcake of a matchup in his Yankees’ debut. The White Sox projected lineup has an average k-rate of 24% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: I’m taking a wait and see approach with Lynn, but I do see some upside if you want to give him a look in tournaments.

Dylan Covey
dylan-covey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,100 Salary: $8,200
Salary Rank: 20 of 20 Salary Rank: 20 of 20 Salary Rank: 20 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 12 5.64 7.71 13.3% 11.0% 48.5% 36.5% 18.0% 92.6 6.2%
2018 14 4.80 5.57 15.4% 10.0% 56.2% 36.7% 17.6% 93.9 7.0%
L14 3 5.21 5.19 10.5% 9.2% 56.7% 36.1% 16.4% 93.6 5.8%

Do you remember a couple months back when we were all starting to believe that Covey was actually a decent pitcher? Oh how the tides have turned. Or have the tables turned? Either way, he’s back to pitching like the Covey that we came to know and love in 2017. In his 14 starts this season, he has a 4.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15% and a hard contact rate of 37%. Tonight he has to face the Yankees, who lead the majors in home runs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Covey in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The one positive that Dylan Covey has going for him is his high ground ball rate, especially to right-handed hitters (62%). These ground balls can still go for singles and the occasional double, but for the most part, we would rather target fly-ball hitters against him. While still viable as part of a full stack, I have less appeal in Brett Gardner and Giancarlo Stanton than I do in the rest of the Yankees’ lineup. Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, and Greg Bird all have high fly-ball rates and good power numbers against right-handed pitching this season. If stacking the Yankees tonight, the two-through-six batters might be your best bet.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.300 0.153 26.9% 11.8% 14.3% 51.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,500 LF $8,900
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.317 0.189 36.5% 7.3% 31.8% 50.7% OF $4,700 OF $5,000 RF $9,700
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.346 0.236 38.3% 8.6% 12.7% 34.1% SS $3,900 SS $5,100 SS $9,500
4 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.359 0.187 38.4% 14.7% 20.0% 43.8% OF $3,800 OF $5,100 CF $9,600
5 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.374 0.244 40.0% 6.6% 26.3% 31.0% 2B $3,600 2B $4,200 2B $8,300
6 Greg Bird LEFT 0.334 0.216 43.9% 8.3% 26.2% 31.7% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 1B $7,200
7 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.348 0.187 36.7% 3.6% 16.8% 48.9% 3B $3,400 3B $4,300 3B $8,100
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.348 0.198 37.5% 8.7% 20.6% 44.2% C $2,400 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.349 0.092 38.3% 10.4% 21.8% 38.1% 2B $2,300 1B/2B $3,600 2B $7,700
Team Averages 0.342 0.189 37.4% 8.9% 21.2% 41.6%

Elite Plays – Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are a sneaky offense to target tonight (basically any night that they are facing a mediocre right-handed pitcher at home). Even though they are large underdogs, a matchup against Lance Lynn is enticing for those that can bat from the left side of the plate. On the season, he has allowed a .383 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to lefties. Yoan Moncada might be my favorite hitter of the entire slate when factoring in price. He has a .207 ISO against right-handed pitching and 11 stolen bases on the season. Yolmer Sanchez and Daniel Palka are elite tournament plays as well, as they both bat from the left side with decent power against righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.347 0.207 39.0% 10.4% 33.8% 31.7% 2B $3,700 2B $3,900 2B $7,300
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.310 0.169 27.8% 6.4% 18.7% 46.2% 3B $2,900 3B $3,500 2B $6,300
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.381 0.210 35.6% 6.6% 17.9% 43.8% 1B $3,800 1B $4,600 1B $9,300
4 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.329 0.280 37.7% 5.5% 35.2% 39.2% OF $2,900 OF $4,700 IF/OF $9,300
5 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.366 0.241 42.0% 2.0% 23.5% 47.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 RF $7,700
6 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.346 0.156 26.9% 9.2% 17.8% 38.1% C $2,100 C $3,200 C $6,600
7 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.288 0.115 25.9% 4.2% 25.1% 51.3% OF $2,400 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
8 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.341 0.146 28.0% 10.0% 16.4% 43.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,400
9 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.271 0.147 26.6% 6.0% 25.5% 49.0% SS $2,700 SS $3,700 SS $7,500
Team Averages 0.331 0.186 32.2% 6.7% 23.8% 43.3%

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez (GPP), Daniel Palka (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Yolmer Sanchez (Cash), Daniel Palka (Cash), Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious