MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-26 01:36:56

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Colorado at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Colorado					Baltimore
			Jorge De La Rosa					Yovani Gallardo
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -165					10.0
SP vs. Left	0.319	6	23.7%	8.1%	SP vs. Left	0.349	15	15.1%	10.7%
SP vs. Right	0.349	23	18.8%	10.8%	SP vs. Right	0.312	7	15.2%	8.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jorge De La Rosa
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		20.4	FPPG:		8.5
					Pitcher Rating:		42.1	Pitcher Rank:		20
L30 Days	5	96.6	5.50	4.50	13.3%	11.1%	9.9%	47.0%	31.0%	21.8%
2016	13	97.7	4.72	6.07	18.3%	10.2%	10.8%	48.3%	31.9%	29.9%
2015	26	94.6	4.10	4.17	21.1%	10.2%	11.7%	52.0%	27.3%	32.6%

De La Rosa has been an easy pitcher to avoid in DFS this season. He currently owns a 4.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18.3% and a walk rate over 10%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Orioles and he has to face them in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. He grades out as one of the worst pitching options in the slate, as Baltimore has a lot of firepower in their lineup, especially when they are playing at home.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Yovani Gallardo
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$4,200
					FPPG:		18.9	FPPG:		7.6
					Pitcher Rating:		42.6	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	6	96.2	5.76	5.29	16.0%	13.9%	6.4%	40.0%	42.0%	29.7%
2016	11	90.6	5.70	5.69	14.8%	12.4%	6.0%	38.9%	41.7%	29.1%
2015	33	97.8	4.59	3.42	15.3%	8.6%	6.5%	49.3%	28.7%	25.5%

Gallardo is in the race for the worst starting pitcher in baseball this season. He has some tough competition, but he is one of the front-runners. In 11 starts, he has a 5.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14.8% and a walk rate of 12.4%. Low strikeout pitchers that give up a lot of fly balls are typically favorable matchups for hitters and that always seems to be the case when Gallardo is on the mound. Avoid both of the starting pitchers in this one.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies may not be playing in Coors Field tonight, but they do draw a favorable matchup against Yovani Gallardo. In addition to one of the lowest strikeout rates in all of baseball, Yovani Gallardo has allowed a .398 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .333 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.339 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.185 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (12 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.86 (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.16 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.62 (10 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.364	0.184	0.261	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.340	0.110	0.302	2B	$3,700	2B	$3,900
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.383	0.301	0.318	3B	$4,300	3B	$4,700
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.411	0.292	0.412	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,900
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.354	0.278	0.580	SS	$3,400	SS	$5,300
6	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.313	0.133	0.318	2B	$2,800	1B/OF	$3,300
7	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.329	0.176	0.244	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,900
8	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.347	0.172	0.307	C	$2,800	C	$3,500
9	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.298	0.171	0.328	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.349	0.202	0.341	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles are sizable favorites tonight at home against Jorge De La Rosa. While they haven’t been great against left-handed pitching as a whole, they come into the game with the third highest implied team total on the board. Over the last two seasons, De La Rosa has allowed a .349 wOBA and 23 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.309 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.166 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.1% (13 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.92 (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.86 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.38 (3 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.296	0.159	0.284	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600
2	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.284	0.132	0.254	2B	$4,000	2B	$3,800
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.350	0.189	0.281	3B	$4,000	3B/SS	$4,800
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.345	0.262	0.333	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,700
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.347	0.214	0.246	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,300
6	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.250	0.087	0.420	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,600
7	Nolan Reimold	RIGHT	0.317	0.132	0.147	OF	$3,300	OF	$2,900
8	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.279	0.142	0.342	C	$2,300	C	$2,800
9	Julio Borbon	LEFT	0.293	0.000	0.293	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.307	0.146	0.289	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, J.J. Hardy, Nolan Reimold

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Diego at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Diego					Toronto
			Colin Rea					Aaron Sanchez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -270					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.313	5	17.5%	10.8%	SP vs. Left	0.334	17	17.5%	11.5%
SP vs. Right	0.348	9	18.2%	7.5%	SP vs. Right	0.239	2	20.5%	6.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Colin Rea
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$5,300
					FPPG:		21.1	FPPG:		9.7
					Pitcher Rating:		34.2	Pitcher Rank:		22
L30 Days	4	97.5	5.05	4.98	17.8%	10.9%	5.4%	41.8%	37.3%	40.6%
2016	17	94.9	4.84	5.01	17.3%	9.6%	6.1%	45.0%	31.8%	32.1%
2015	6	87.5	4.13	4.26	19.6%	8.3%	5.3%	46.2%	30.1%	36.8%

Rea isn’t the worst pitcher in baseball, but he is one that doesn’t stand out from a fantasy perspective. In 17 starts this season, he has a 4.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.3%. Typically, a right-handed pitcher would have an edge against a right-handed heavy lineup, but Rea’s reverse-splits could cause the opposite effect. He should be avoided in all league formats tonight against the Blue Jays.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Aaron Sanchez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$10,900
					FPPG:		36.8	FPPG:		19.3
					Pitcher Rating:		74.0	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	5	99.4	4.02	1.85	14.1%	4.4%	7.4%	57.0%	21.5%	26.2%
2016	19	99.5	3.68	2.87	21.0%	7.2%	8.1%	57.1%	20.9%	28.1%
2015	11	131.7	4.43	3.22	16.1%	11.6%	7.0%	60.6%	21.6%	21.0%

Sanchez is the heaviest favorite on the schedule tonight, which makes him a viable cash game option. His matchup against the Padres makes him a viable GPP option. So, if you do the math, I believe that means you can target him with confidence in all league formats. The Padres have been good against southpaws this season, but are ranked 29th in both team wOBA and team K% against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres see a nice ballpark boost playing in the Rogers Centre, but still come into the game with the sixth lowest implied team total on the board. They are huge underdogs against Aaron Sanchez, who boasts an above-average strikeout rate and an elite ground ball rate. Ryan Schimpf is the only Padres’ batter on my radar in this one. He has a .520 wOBA over the last 14 days and Sanchez has struggled a bit against left-handed hitters.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.288 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.154 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.8% (29 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.41 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.77 (17 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.314	0.108	0.307	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.336	0.208	0.214	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,300
3	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.303	0.170	0.466	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.343	0.183	0.318	3B	$3,300	2B/3B	$3,000
5	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.305	0.158	0.175	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700
6	Ryan Schimpf	LEFT	0.401	0.382	0.520	3B	$2,200	2B	$3,200
7	Alex Dickerson	LEFT	0.307	0.145	0.150	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700
8	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.284	0.163	0.173	C	$2,400	C	$2,400
9	Alexei Ramirez	RIGHT	0.263	0.102	0.277	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,100
	Team Averages	—	0.317	0.180	0.289	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ryan Schimpf (FD)

Secondary Plays – Ryan Schimpf (DK)

Stackability – RED

Toronto

The Blue Jays have the highest run projection of the 22 teams in action tonight. They have been a top six offense against right-handed pitching this season and they get to face a reverse-splits pitcher at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Over the last two seasons, Colin Rea has allowed a .313 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .348 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Jose Bautista is tentatively expected to return to the lineup tonight.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.332 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.191 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.9% (19 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.05 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.91 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.73 (1 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.297	0.101	0.149	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400
2	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.383	0.279		OF	$5,000	OF	$4,400
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.399	0.270	0.445	3B	$5,100	3B	$5,600
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.389	0.285	0.359	1B	$4,800	1B	$4,700
5	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.349	0.196	0.313	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,900
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.324	0.177	0.339	SS	$2,800	SS	$4,300
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.303	0.130	0.207	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100
8	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.366	0.190	0.404	2B	$2,700	2B	$4,100
9	Josh Thole	LEFT	0.208	0.022	0.375	C	$2,300	C	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.335	0.183	0.324	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Detroit					Boston
			Justin Verlander					Drew Pomeranz
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -125					10.0
SP vs. Left	0.272	14	24.1%	7.0%	SP vs. Left	0.240	3	25.0%	9.6%
SP vs. Right	0.293	16	23.0%	5.9%	SP vs. Right	0.288	15	25.8%	9.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Justin Verlander
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$9,400
					FPPG:		37.9	FPPG:		20.7
					Pitcher Rating:		61.0	Pitcher Rank:		9
L30 Days	5	103.6	3.61	3.62	27.4%	8.2%	13.3%	39.8%	42.2%	25.0%
2016	20	106.4	3.68	3.74	25.9%	6.9%	11.8%	36.2%	45.7%	26.9%
2015	20	107.5	3.95	3.37	21.1%	6.0%	10.0%	34.6%	45.5%	23.0%

Verlander is having a great season so far, posting a 3.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.9%. He draws one of his toughest tests to date, as he has to take on the red-hot Red Sox in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. As we have seen time and time again this season, targeting pitchers against the Red Sox in Boston is not a profitable DFS strategy. Verlander has been good, but he is far too risky to use tonight in cash games or GPPs.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Drew Pomeranz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,100	Salary:		$10,300
					FPPG:		37.2	FPPG:		20.5
					Pitcher Rating:		70.8	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	4	95.3	3.54	2.25	24.2%	5.3%	11.0%	50.0%	37.5%	27.3%
2016	18	98.8	3.76	2.83	27.7%	10.0%	11.3%	46.7%	37.4%	28.8%
2015	9	160.2	3.73	3.66	23.0%	8.7%	11.0%	42.2%	36.3%	24.9%

Pomeranz pitched well in the first two innings against the Giants in his first start with the Red Sox, but was then blown up in the third. He is hoping to have a better outing in his second start with the team, but the matchup isn’t any easier. The Tigers’ lineup is loaded with right-handed hitters that have historically feasted on left-handed pitching. I’m going to take a wait and see approach with Pomeranz, as the move to the American League could really hurt his fantasy appeal.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are a sneaky offense to target tonight. The fact that they are underdogs should keep their ownership down, but I’m high on a few of their hitters in both cash games and tournaments. Drew Pomeranz did not fare well in his first start in Fenway Park and he has allowed 15 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.317 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.159 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.6% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.87 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.63 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.85 (7 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.368	0.186	0.439	2B	$4,300	2B	$5,100
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.351	0.121	0.324	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,400
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.351	0.162	0.380	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,800
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.368	0.158	0.120	C	$2,900	1B	$3,400
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.363	0.226	0.252	3B	$3,900	3B	$3,200
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.275	0.137	0.316	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500
7	Mike Aviles	RIGHT	0.267	0.081	0.281	2B	$2,400	3B/OF	$2,500
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.367	0.234	0.083	C	$2,100	C	$3,700
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.348	0.122	0.284	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.340	0.159	0.275	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, James McCann

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox have the fourth highest implied team total on the board tonight, but I’m not sure what to do with their offense. The matchup against Justin Verlander is far from ideal, as he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA in the last two seasons. I expect the Red Sox to score some runs here, but I have a hard time paying a premium for their hitters in this matchup.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.358 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.194 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 17.9% (3 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.91 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.70 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.15 (4 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.362	0.205	0.455	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,200
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.352	0.144	0.374	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,000
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.338	0.118	0.319	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,300
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.439	0.350	0.433	1B	$5,300	1B	$5,500
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.320	0.157	0.361	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,700
6	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.381	0.284	0.380	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,400
7	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.342	0.195	0.252	3B	$3,300	1B/3B	$3,600
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.316	0.099	0.407	C	$2,800	C	$2,600
9	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.318	0.122	0.388	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.352	0.186	0.374	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Hanley Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Philadelphia					Miami
			Jeremy Hellickson					Jarred Cosart
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -150					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.342	17	17.6%	8.6%	SP vs. Left	0.321	3	17.6%	14.9%
SP vs. Right	0.315	24	22.1%	4.4%	SP vs. Right	0.347	7	12.1%	11.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jeremy Hellickson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$8,300
					FPPG:		30.4	FPPG:		16.1
					Pitcher Rating:		60.0	Pitcher Rank:		10
L30 Days	5	94.6	3.95	2.25	19.5%	3.1%	11.4%	38.5%	35.4%	18.4%
2016	20	93.3	3.91	3.84	21.6%	5.5%	11.7%	41.1%	34.3%	27.5%
2015	27	91.8	4.14	4.62	19.0%	6.8%	10.3%	42.4%	36.5%	34.3%

Hellickson is having a better season than anyone outside of Philadelphia could have predicted. In 20 starts, he has a 3.91 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.6% and a walk rate of 5.5%. You’d be surprised how many aces from a season ago have worse numbers than Hellickson this year. Tonight he squares off against the Marlins, who are ranked 11th in team wOBA and sixth in team K% against right-handed pitching. I don’t love targeting underdog pitchers on the road, but Hellickson could be a sneaky GPP flier tonight.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jarred Cosart
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$4,900
					FPPG:		9.7	FPPG:		1.5
					Pitcher Rating:		59.9	Pitcher Rank:		11
2016	3	103.0	6.43	7.98	10.8%	20.3%	5.2%	65.3%	6.1%	29.4%
2015	13	90.0	4.71	4.52	15.9%	11.2%	7.4%	55.5%	27.0%	26.1%

Cosart is only making his fourth start of the season, as he has spent most of his time in Triple-A ball. In 13 starts a season ago, he posted a 4.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15.9% and a walk rate of 11.2%. He hasn’t shown very much upside at any level, which does dampen his fantasy appeal. Even though he is a sizable favorite at home against the Phillies, I’m not a huge fan of Cosart tonight. The only place I would use him would be as an SP2 on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies may have the third lowest implied team total tonight, but their matchup isn’t nearly as bad as Vegas suggests. Cosart is a low strikeout pitcher that struggles with his command. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .321 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .347 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.296 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.156 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.4% (18 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.74 (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.57 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.71 (20 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.285	0.151	0.148	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000
2	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.349	0.143	0.301	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,700
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.339	0.205	0.222	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,700
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.303	0.254	0.434	1B	$2,700	1B	$4,100
5	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.290	0.145	0.368	C	$3,000	C	$3,600
6	Cody Asche	LEFT	0.307	0.171	0.199	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.291	0.127	0.291	SS	$2,600	SS	$4,000
8	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.295	0.086	0.190	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,500
9	Jeremy Hellickson	RIGHT	0.195	0.000	0.000	P	$7,300	P	$8,300
	Team Averages	—	0.295	0.142	0.239	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

The Marlins actually have the tougher matchup tonight, as Jeremy Hellickson has pitched pretty well this season. However, Miami has the much better offense and they are playing at home, which helps explain why they are such large favorites. I don’t love or hate this matchup for the Marlins, but Hellickson has allowed 41 home runs in his last 47 starts.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.1% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.83 (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.17 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.29 (12 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.317	0.123	0.261	C	$3,200	C	$4,400
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.304	0.091	0.337	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,200
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.374	0.162	0.476	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,900
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.350	0.255	0.396	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,400
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.308	0.141	0.296	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700
6	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.370	0.183	0.155	2B	$2,500	2B	$2,800
7	Chris Johnson	RIGHT	0.257	0.099	0.287	1B	$2,100	1B	$2,200
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.275	0.086	0.347	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,700
9	Jarred Cosart	RIGHT	0.110	0.000		P	$5,900	P	$4,900
	Team Averages	—	0.296	0.127	0.319	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton (FD)

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton (DK), Derek Dietrich

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
St. Louis					NY Mets
			Carlos Martinez					Noah Syndergaard
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -170					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.327	17	19.7%	10.2%	SP vs. Left	0.300	13	26.3%	5.7%
SP vs. Right	0.250	4	26.3%	6.2%	SP vs. Right	0.253	12	31.1%	4.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Carlos Martinez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$11,400
					FPPG:		31.6	FPPG:		16.6
					Pitcher Rating:		68.8	Pitcher Rank:		8
L30 Days	5	99.6	3.58	1.97	22.6%	7.5%	9.8%	59.6%	22.5%	24.2%
2016	18	96.0	3.91	2.83	20.7%	8.0%	8.9%	58.2%	25.2%	28.7%
2015	29	98.1	3.44	3.01	24.4%	8.3%	10.5%	54.5%	25.5%	27.6%

Martinez has been in great form coming into tonight’s start, posting a 3.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.6% and a walk rate of 7.5% in his last five starts. Even though he is pitching on the road, he draws a favorable matchup against the Mets, who are ranked 19th in team wOBA and 24th in team K% against right-handed pitching. Unfortunately, he is way too expensive on DraftKings and the fact that he is a large underdog makes him a risky cash game option on FanDuel. That basically leaves him as a sneaky GPP play on FD.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Noah Syndergaard
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,100	Salary:		$11,100
					FPPG:		40.0	FPPG:		22.3
					Pitcher Rating:		92.3	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	5	86.0	3.48	4.10	26.3%	7.0%	14.9%	45.2%	28.8%	29.3%
2016	18	94.3	2.69	2.43	30.5%	4.5%	15.0%	51.2%	27.0%	28.1%
2015	24	99.2	2.95	3.24	27.5%	5.1%	12.2%	46.5%	33.6%	24.6%

Syndergaard has still been good, but not his dominant self over the last month of play. During that stretch, he has a 3.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.3%. There has been some chatter about his velocity being down, but he is still throwing in the high 90’s, so I’m not overly concerned about it. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Cardinals, who are still missing their best hitter in Matt Carpenter. The Cardinals don’t strikeout all that often, but I don’t tend to factor that in nearly as much with elite strikeout pitchers like Syndergaard.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals’ offense has been humming along, but they aren’t as formidable of an opponent without Matt Carpenter and Brandon Moss. They draw the toughest matchup on the board tonight, as they square off against Noah Syndergaard in Citi Field. In the last two seasons, Syndergaard has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.344 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.200 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.6% (8 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.83 (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.13 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.09 (22 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Greg Garcia	LEFT	0.350	0.137	0.296	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$2,800
2	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.402	0.234	0.375	SS	$2,800	SS	$4,200
3	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.345	0.172	0.365	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800
4	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.348	0.171	0.313	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400
5	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.314	0.190	0.402	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,000
6	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.300	0.093	0.307	C	$2,200	C	$2,700
7	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.308	0.188	0.523	3B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,900
8	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.319	0.128	0.301	2B	$2,200	2B	$2,300
9	Carlos Martinez	RIGHT	0.229	0.030	0.293	P	$9,500	P	$11,400
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.149	0.353	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

The Mets are favored tonight, but this isn’t what I would call an exploitable matchup. Carlos Martinez has an above-average strikeout rate and he comes into the game in solid form. The way to attack Martinez is with left-handed hitters, but the Mets have the eighth lowest team total on the board. I will be avoiding both offenses in what could turn into a pitcher’s duel.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.174 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.6% (24 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.94 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.73 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.91 (15 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.296	0.108	0.347	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,100
2	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.369	0.227	0.238	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.378	0.262	0.304	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,900
4	James Loney	LEFT	0.320	0.100	0.382	1B	$2,700	1B	$2,700
5	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.321	0.177	0.296	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,800
6	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.325	0.170	0.150	2B	$3,100	2B	$2,200
7	Travis D’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.320	0.163	0.263	C	$2,100	C	$2,600
8	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.362	0.256	0.401	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800
9	Noah Syndergaard	RIGHT	0.269	0.197	0.000	P	$10,100	P	$11,100
	Team Averages	—	0.329	0.184	0.265	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 25th

Stackability Rating System:

Colorado at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, J.J. Hardy, Nolan Reimold

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Diego at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ryan Schimpf (FD)

Secondary Plays – Ryan Schimpf (DK)

Stackability – RED

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, James McCann

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Hanley Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton (FD)

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton (DK), Derek Dietrich

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Curtis Granderson

Stackability – RED

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